Within the next few hours we should get the first full voting intention poll to have been carried out entirely after EdM’s big Brighton speech. Let’s hope that the Sun releases its YouGov survey this side of midnight rather than us having to wait until the morning.
Comments
http://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news/842-ukip-call-for-bbc-non-payment-to-be-made-a-civil-not-criminal-offence
http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2013-14/bbctrusteeelectionandlicencefee.html
@Chuvapp
The CBI Survey on September Sales
Key findings:
• 46% of respondents reported that sales volumes were up on a year ago, while 12% said they were down, giving a balance of +34% - the strongest since June 2012 (+42%) and exceeding expectations (+26%)
• Retailers expect sales volumes to grow at a similarly strong pace next month (+31%)
• There was a broad-based increase in sales across many sub-sectors with furniture & carpets, department stores, recreational good retailers and grocers performing strongly:
• A balance of +100% of furniture & carpets retailers said business volumes were up – the strongest since August 1996.
• 52% of department stores said business volumes were up, while 0% said they were down, giving a balance of +52%
• 65% of recreational goods retailers said business volumes were up, while 0% said they were down, giving a balance of +65%
• 50% of grocers said business volumes were up, while 17% said they were down, giving a balance of +33%.
• Chemists were the only sub-sector to report a fall in business volumes (-72%)
• Overall, 22% of retailers said that sales volumes were above average for the time of year, while 10% said they were below average, giving a balance of +12% - the highest survey balance since December 2010 (+18%)
• 36% placed more orders with suppliers than they did a year ago and 22% placed fewer, with the resulting balance of +14%.
Wholesalers
50% of wholesalers said sales volumes were up while 10% said they were down, giving a balance of +40% - the strongest pace of growth since June 2013 (+45%). Most sub-sectors saw growth, with building materials (+100%) and clothing, textiles & footwear (+56%) in the lead. Only food & drink saw a decline in sales (-13%), marking the first year-on-year fall since May. Overall, sales are expected to rise solidly again in the year to October, but at a slower pace than this month (+28%).
Motor traders
64% of motor traders said sales volumes were up while 36% said they were down, giving a balance of +28%, a slower pace of growth than in the previous month (+93%).
Not sure about that, Avery.
I think:
a) Conservative Business Interests has a better ring to it.
and:
b) is more topical given next week's party conference
Sunil
The most important part of the CBI statement was its concluding paragraph:
The best way to raise living standards is through growth. It's only when we start to see solid and sustainable growth that wages will pick up and people will start to feel better off.
The UK is currently experiencing growth which is not only above the country's fifty year trend level; not only above the EU average and all large European countries including Germany; but also above the OECD average and above its individual members such as the US, Japan and Canada.
If this rate of growth can be sustained through to the end of Q2 2015, it will do far more to improve living standards than any regulatory intervention or market fiddling being proposed by Ed Miliband.
So the real question that should be asked today is not whether Ed is right - any economist will tell you price controls don't work both from theory and known practice - but whether Osborne can maintain the current rate of growth in the UK economy through to the election. If he can, the debate on living standards and energy costs will be long dead before voters mark their crosses..
Now we cannot forecast that far forward with a high degree of reliability, even if we exclude the potential impact of external shocks. But the probability of sustained growth is getter higher by the month, This can be concluded not just from UK data but from better figures from our trading partners, especially in the EU and the US.
And we can look at short term indicators in the UK which are all pointing to sustained growth even if maybe a little off its peak in mid summer.
I have posted separately downthread key findings from today's CBI report on September sales, the first of three main retail sales reports for the month. Read it and consider whether its contents are a better or worse guide to the future prospects for UK standards of living than anything said by Ed Miliband in his speech yesterday.
@Avery
totally agree the best way for living standards is growth.
When can we have a CoE who knows something about wealth creation ?
....
You're right, Scott. Miliband is terrifying the Tories.
Labour are coming out with some high profile, populist policies: who doesn't want lower energy bills? The interesting moment is going to come closer to the election in my opinion: will people, when forced to make the decision, get scared about rocking the boat with Labour? After all, minds will be much more concentrated when these things crop up in an election campaign.
He breaks his own records is small steps collecting plaudits and awards each time.
What % growth does your desperate CoE need in the next twenty months for you to proclaim living standards higher than 2010. After all, you inherited a growing economy in the 3rd quarter of 2010.
But we can agree to differ.
Is this "one Labour MP" Hodges spoke to the very same Labour MP he has used as a source for every other column he's written?
I do wish people would stop lumping amazon in with the likes of google and starbucks, when they talk about these massive companies making huge profits and dodging tax on them.
Amazon have huge sales numbers, but despite I'm sure setting themselves up in a "tax efficient" manner, actually make very very little in percentage terms.
In fact, many analysts say they have to calibrate their business away from still thinking of a new start-up trying to land grab as much as possible to one that makes much better returns,
"Investors, comforted by Bezos’s consistency with this strategy over the years, have so much faith in him that they’re willing to tolerate razor-thin or nonexistent profits in exchange for continued market share gains and a promise of windfall profits someday. And by the way, low margins to Bezos are a competitive advantage. If you’re eking out sub-2 percent profits, which Amazon is doing, your market isn’t very enticing to rivals. When margins are nice and fat, your business is a delectable target."
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-08/amazons-jeff-bezos-doesnt-care-about-profit-margins
So criticism Amazon for trying to dominant the market and wipe out the competition (they have certainly been extremely aggressive in that respect and ultimately I'm sure they will maximise on it), but currently they aren't making the sort of profit that say a Starbucks do on a cup of coffee.
The reason Amazon can offer you a book or dvd so cheap is they have been ahead of the game with ultra efficient IT / logistics and wafer-thin margins.
Ed Miliband will now turn his guns on big business until that strategy finally bites him on the behookie as well. Its going to be interesting to if Ed Miliband's internal opponents decide to leave him in place until after the next GE even if the polls swing decisively against the party because they cannot agree on one clear choice as his replacement.
Ed Miliband has chosen the path of least resistance in targeting big bad business. It’s a message that plays well to the party faithful, but the next election will be decided by an audience far larger than a conference hall in Brighton.
An audience that will have read their morning papers and had many of their fears about Labour confirmed.
Atul Hatwal is editor of Labour Uncut
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/09/25/today-the-tories-are-happy-thats-all-you-need-to-know-about-eds-speech/?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer45e20&utm_medium=twitter
One person broke the fire brigade picket line at Trumpton, or as they are now known, Pugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble and Scab.
Retweeted by tom jamieson
So, in the normal run of things, surely tomorrow's poll will have been carried out today and yesterday. Unless they are doing a special entirely post-speech poll.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret1m
Peter M wrong re energy policy being shift to left. It is putting consumer first v anti competitive force. More New Deal than old Labour
Why did Miliband ever try and claim he wasn't Red Ed? Price controls and land confiscations are hardly centrist policies.
Still happy?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24240869
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/09/25/forget-the-swingers-miliband-is-staking-all-on-his-core-vote-strategy/
NB: I would use the proceeds to reduce taxes for other companies - all about making the competitive landscape as even as possible. For instance, in Kensington there are a vast number of empty retail sites. This is for 3 reasons: (1) no local resident consumers (2) the Westfield effect and (3) extremely high rates last reviewed at the height of the boom
I don't deny that, I said so in my post, they have aggressively targeted the market...I am just saying that it is wrong to lump them with many of the other players when it comes to talking about making massive returns.
Analysis of mark-up on a cup of Starbucks, shows a very healthy margins (which don't seem to reflect in the profits declared in the country of sale)....as stated in the piece, Amazon is operating on razor thin margins.
As for killing the rental DVD market...you are having a laugh right? The rental DVD market has been killed by the internet!!! Amazon or no Amazon, there are numerous internet stream providers. Netflix was a massive rental DVD operator, foresaw what was coming (Blockbuster didn't) and now dominants the US streaming market.
Another rip-snorter from another Hodges nom-de-plume?
It seems clear to me that the Labour leader's speech, and the policies he announced, will simply reinforce voters' perceptions of the Labour Party - hates business, loves welfare, couldn't give a crap about the deficit - rather than challenging them and expanding his party's appeal.
http://marbury.typepad.com/marbury/2013/09/the-flight-from-the-centre.html
I think business rates are actually taxes on property - you pay them if you have it and you don't pay them if you don't - it's that simple.
Owen Jones@OwenJones842m
The coffin opens RT @guardiannews Peter Mandelson criticises Ed Miliband's energy plan http://gu.com/p/3j3q8/tf
I'd advocate taxes being universal, low and hard to avoid.
A few Labour myths need dispelling with facts.
1. Osborne inherited a growing economy in 2010 but it was growing at a lower rate than Germany's, that of the US, as well as the average EU27 and OECD growth rates.
2. Osborne did not "choke off growth by cutting too far and too fast". The profile of growth was broadly similar in all the comparator countries and regions: namely growth accelerating in 2010 following by rapid deceleration in 2011-12. Only Germany and the EU27 average suffered a "double dip" or "W" recession, although it is true the UK came very, very close to falling back into recession.
3. Over the course of 2012 H2 - 2013 H2, the UK's growth has accelerated faster than in the comparators.
4. The OECD (and almost all economic commentators) are forecasting that by the end of 2014 the UK will have a grown more over the 2010-2014 period than both Germany and the US, as well as the EU27 and OECD averages.
So under Gordon the UK fell to the bottom of the pile. Under George we have reached the top.
What more do you want, Surby? To overtake China?
My issue is that they have won market share (fair play) by taking advantage of a 20% price differential due to a tax arbitrage. Why does the government favour one business model over another?
Man U 1-0 Liverpool in the League Cup...
I suspect it's possible both Labour and Tories may get a boost - Labour, because cutting energy prices will obviously be popular (in theory anyway) and the Tories because the speech may be enough to bring a few of the less devoted UKIP'ers back to the Tories.
Sadly, the same can't be said of ModelZone
It sounds to me a rather 'canutian' response to the real world - I guess you'd want e-mails to be charged at that same rate as land letters.
But there is no reason to stop Manchester doing WCs.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24273380
The latter two appear to "up to standard", leaving me very curious about that first post. What on earth could it have said?
Absolutely!
I apologize...I am multi-tasking here...Woolies especially had a lot of problems, not just Amazon stealing their market share in DVD's.
However, the internet via streaming, will seriously effect physical DVD market and in the both the US and here, Amazon don't have anywhere near a monopoly on that nor the replacement for the CD, music downloads / streaming.
Again, I'm not arguing about how they got to this stage, just that people always say well that Amazon they is making massive % returns, like Starbucks, Google, etc...when it isn't currently true.
They might have land grabbed a lot of the physical CD / DVD sector, but now that rug is being seriously plugged with all the music, tv and movie streaming services.
Energy giants will blink first in Miliband's price freeze challenge.
http://www.hmv.com/store-locator/
The kiwis must be gutted: a couple of races ago they were leading in light winds when the race was called off for not finishing in the allotted time. They were less than two minutes from the line...
Lord Ashcroft tells Labour activists election is party's to lose
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24228750
Remember Team USA started the event on "-2"....