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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters don’t buy the speculation that there’ll be a 2018 election
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Asked about reports that the Prime Minister could call another election in the autumn, Mr Johnson said: “Really? We had a general election in June last year, which followed hard on the heels of a referendum, which itself followed hard on the heels of an election in 2015.
“I think the British public deserve a break from politicians. And my thoughts are very much with that wonderful woman Brenda. I’m with Brenda on this one.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/963196/boris-johnson-theresa-may-tories-general-election-conservative-party-latest
https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/998650222975770626
https://twitter.com/TIME/status/998780509659516928
Besides which just as many of the ERG are wary of precipitating undiluted socialism. There are only about 15-20 diehards who’d topple her regardless, in my view, and maybe not even that many.
As I recall it didn't quite work out the way he intended...
Mr. Doethur, ha, I didn't know that.
On-topic: not sure I buy this 2018 election talk either, frankly.
If the Tories lead in the polls in 2020 or 2021 post-Brexit I'd imagine they'd go for an election rather than limping on without a majority. Then there's the chance it all falls apart at some point over Brexit.
https://twitter.com/nicthenolan/status/998780494933184512
In any event, isn’t there a ‘Review” of the FTPA due in 2020?
No-one trusts the polls any more, nor Mrs May's ability to fight an election campaign. End of story.
McKenzie has been approached for comment. HuffPost understands he has not yet been told by the party that he is suspended.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/lewisham-east-labour-chair-suspended-over-tweets-about-isis-beheading-emily-thornberry-ian-mckenzie_uk_5b03ab16e4b0463cdba5647a?laq
An odd split, though. For over a week Alonso has been 301 (376 with boost) to win, a fifth the odds for top 3 (Perez is 1001 or 1301 with boost, I mentioned backing both with tiny sums each way). But the Spaniard's podium odds are 10.
That's, even without boost, 61 versus 10 for the same market (ok, you need to lose one stake from the 61, but it hardly alters the point).
There are a couple of long odds specials that might be interesting, going to give them a bit of a think.
And, don't forget, I have an absolutely appalling record this year, so...
Edited extra bit: sign of Leclerc's star rising, just 2.87 for points (too short, probably).
https://www.vox.com/world/2018/4/23/17270180/natalie-portman-israel-boycott
Possible GE next year if we end up with a no deal Brexit (Even though we have been told 7,462 times that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal') due to the government falling because it has failed in the one thing it was charged with doing.
WASHINGTON (AP) — After a year spent carefully cultivating two princes from the Arabian Peninsula, Elliott Broidy, a top fundraiser for President Donald Trump, thought he was finally close to nailing more than $1 billion in business.....
It all might have proceeded smoothly save for one factor: the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel to look into allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
https://apnews.com/a3521859cf8d4c199cb9a8567abd2b71
This is why prominent Israeli politicians — who are, notably, right-wing — have called for her citizenship to be stripped, or tried to marginalize her as somehow anti-Semitic. They worry, not without cause, that she’s a harbinger of future conflict between Israel and its most important international ally.
Portman's criticism is of Netanyahu and his policies - something I'm sure you've assured us is not anti-Semitic.
https://www.vox.com/2018/5/21/17377278/trump-north-korea-kim-jong-un-challenge-coin
While some accusations of anti-semitism are wide of the mark it would be a mistake to conclude that all are.
Betting PostF1: a few early betting thoughts. I did mention, for tiny stakes, Alonso/Perez to win, each way, at 376/1001 respectively (with boost, fifth the odds top 6) and still think that's worth a tiny sum each.
Backed Raikkonen to 'win' qualifying at 8.5 (9 with boost), each way (fifth the odds for top 3). He's qualified very well this year, and last year got the pole here. May be competition from the Red Bulls, possible the Mercedes will struggle on the very soft tyres.
Backed Haas for double points at 4 (4.1 with boost). They've got the car. Magnussen's driving well. If Grosjean can keep it out of the wall, there's a good chance of it coming off.
With tiny stakes, again, backed two long odds specials. Oddly, the thing that concerns me most is Hamilton winning, which is part of both of them. But it's just loose change stakes and I think they may be mispriced.
First is 23, 26 with boost. Contingencies are:
Hamilton win
Raikkonen podium
Grosjean points
Safety car appears
Mercedes could be a bit rubbish on the softest tyre but tasty on the harder rubber, so a Hamilton win cannot be ruled out (and about half the races this year have been won by fluke). Raikkonen on the podium is easy to see, Grosjean could well achieve points, and a safety car is eminently probable. [As an aside, I won't be backing no safety car this year, so if there is one, after a couple of years of betting to the contrary, one shall be peeved].
The other special is 401, or 501 with boost. Again, betting the price of a small packet of mints only. Contingencies are:
Hamilton win
Ricciardo podium
Perez top 6
Alonso points
Verstappen not classified
Verstappen has a bad record at Monaco. He's crashed out of two of them, and has also been crashing quite a lot this year. Not certain he'll do it again, of course, but quite possible. Alonso for points is very likely, he's scored at every race this year (only Hamilton and Vettel matching the feat). Perez top 6 is a little less likely. However, he has a good Monaco record (scored a podium here) and the Force India looked racier at Azerbaijan. However, his top 6 is probably why the odds are enormous. Already covered Hamilton winning (and that's going to be the most hedgeable aspect, if you're into that).
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/998824564326092800
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/05/trumps-last-foray-into-arms-control-negotiations-doesnt-bode-well-for-his-kim-meeting.html?
...The event took place around 1990, at a reception in New York, where Trump met Richard Burt, who had just been named President George H.W. Bush’s chief negotiator at the U.S.-Soviet Strategic Arms Reduction Talks. Trump had wanted the slot himself—even lobbied for it avidly, to the shock and mirth of many—when the talks began under President Reagan. Now, meeting the man who got the job, Trump told him how to get a “terrific” deal: Arrive late at your first session; walk up to your Russian counterpart, who will have been sitting impatiently; look down at him, stick your finger in his chest, and say, “Fuck you!”
In reality as OGH states they do not have the numbers to topple her and as current polls suggest a new general election would produce a very similar result to the last general election anyway
That is not good news for the GOP ahead of the midterms in November as if you recall the Democrats were thumped in the 1994 midterms losing both the House and the Senate
Leavers are annoyed Corbyn has committed to stay in a Customs Union while Remainers are annoyed by his closet Euroscepticism and are losing faith in Labour as a means to avoid Brexit.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/998832341542932480
Either way a bit silly to write tweets like this. Social media seems to have the effect of making people lose the power of thought.
Why don't Blair and Campbell just shut up over Brexit - they don't help their side at all.
Then let's suspend belief and imagine that somehow such a second referendum was secured on the leaving deal.
What the **** happens if the British people vote to leave again?
It just seems a ridiculous strategy.
......"So Natalie Portman turning down a visit to Israel in protest is not business as usual, and Israeli politicians are not treating it as such. Oren Hazan, a member of Israel’s parliament from Netanyahu’s Likud Party, called for Portman’s Israeli citizenship to be stripped. A member of the cabinet, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, said her decision “has elements of anti-Semitism.”
From what I have seen of Ms Portman's remarks she was criticising the policies of the Netanhanyu government in perfectly reasonable terms and so I cannot see any basis at all for claiming she's being anti-semitic. Those people making this accusation are being silly and downplaying what is a serious allegation. If people cry wolf in this way then genuine cases of anti-semitism will be downplayed or ignored.
Incidentally, you may have missed what I wrote on the previous thread about Ken, the play "Perdition" and the source for Ken's claims about Hitler.
In one of his many interviews there was a book which Livingstone referenced as his source for his claims about Hitler and Zionism and which he said he would use to defend himself at the disciplinary hearing. That book was "Zionism in the Age of the Dictators" by American Marxist Lenni Brenner. Unfortunately for him reputable historians demolished the claims made in the book and also pointed out that the author was a holocaust denier and had taken statements from other dubious sources to come up with his theory which Ken then used as the basis for his claim that what he said was “historical fact”. In short Ken’s historical source came from someone who both got his facts wrong and had a sinister agenda.
The attached (while somewhat lengthy) sets out why Brenner’s understanding of history was flawed - http://fathomjournal.org/an-antisemitic-hoax-lenni-brenner-on-zionist-collaboration-with-the-nazis/.
Meanwhile, the trains around Manchester are all buggered-up this morning. My leisurely coffee and pastry in the lounge at MIA will now be replaced with a scamper to the boarding gate.
The likes of Blair and his supporters would be much more persuasive if they were writing pieces like: "why EEA membership is compatible with Labour's plans on nationalisation"
"Why EEA membership respects the vote, but prioritises a jobs brexit" etc. etc.
No idea what, if anything, that entitles me to. Would her descendants also have been entitled to "return"? But if so it does suggest a very expansive definition of Jewish. As expansive as the current definition of "refugee" which seems to cover a person who has never lived in the land in question but whose grandparents did.
Those voters want action to end FoM not vague promises which end up meaning nothing, of course added to by Blair in the first place by his failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004
Alternatively - Labour could accept that we lost the referendum vote, and put forward a plan for Brexit which isn't too damaging (maybe that's this EEA option people talk about), and have an excellent chance of getting a majority in parliament for your position.
And yeah in a bit of time we might decide we want to rejoin and it wouldn't be that tough because we wouldn't have diverged much from the EU.
It just seems a ridiculous strategy." He seems to be worried that they might vote leave. "Double or quits"
You are worried that the EU would be motivated to offer a bad deal. You are worried they'd vote remain. You both claim it would be ridiculous because you are afraid to leave it to the people to make an informed choice.
I suspect the "terrible" deal we would be offered would be a very soft BINO - CU, single market, same payments etc but no say on the rules. People would say WTF and vote to remain which would be rational, the best outcome for the UK and not ridiculous.
There have always been BNP type racists but they were not the reason for the Leave win
Those who want Corbyn to support the SM should be banging on about how he can still achieve his other objectives whilst inside it.
Rock, paper, scissors, lizard, Spock?
All prefaced with "People's" of course.
https://labourlist.org/2017/12/huge-labour-rebellion-as-64-mps-defy-corbyn-over-customs-union/
Could work, of course. We live in strange political times. Only yesterday a government threatened to break out in Italy.
Although of course in Jewish terms, it’s grandmother.
Immigration is the main motivator for a number of working class voters, a number of whom voted for UKIP in 2015 and went Tory or Labour in 2017 but could go back again if free movement is left in place.
ABC1s who are diehard EUphiles but voted Tory in 2017 clearly fear Corbyn and might go LD but not Labour
https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/998845069116526592?s=21
I know it is embedded in your DNA but it is very off-putting. As someone who runs for public office, moreover, it might be something you would like to take note of.