Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst y
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017
The narrative that started following the shock general election result last June was that Corbyn and his party had managed tap into the youth vote who were turning out in greater numbers than at recent elections.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Best PM - May lead vs Corbyn (change vs April):
OA: +13 (+1)
M: +19 (+5)
F: +8 (-1)
18-34: +4 (+9)
35-44: -6 (+2)
45-54: +8 (-9)
55-64: +19 (-6)
65+: +39 (-3)
I'm calling it as a 'blip' rather than a shift.....unless the enthusiasm of youth wears off faster than that of pre-middle age...but I suspect normal service will be resumed in June.
One other oddity - in April Opinium had both the unweighted and weighted base sizes (showing the not untypical significant upweighting of difficult to reach younger voters from 249 >572) - doesn't appear in the May tables unless I've missed it. But more than doubling those sampled into representative cohort will introduce further instability - if this is what also happened in May.
Yes, Mrs May could do with some good news. I'm not sure this is it.
Best PM May vs Corbn - (vs April)
Remain: -5 (+5)
Leave: +32 (-1)
So I think there is evidence that Corbyn is losing support among Remain voters - just it may be too soon to say its necessarily among the young.
The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.
What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/18/is-u-s-fertility-at-an-all-time-low-it-depends/
I don't think people are paying close attention 'Which one is the bigger shambles" may be more of a factor....
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/immigration/2018/05/17/even-trump-tightens-immigration-us-labor-shortage-becoming-crisis
That light has now flickered and gone and all we're left with is an aging throwback to the 70's. A USP you wouldn't wish on a contender for the leader of Unison. Lefties might still vote for him but without enthusiasm.
You can argue that the options are too limited, or that they are the wrong options, but perhaps we can blame that on the utter failure of Vince Cable to sell the Lib Dems as anything other than a hopeless single-issue party.
The Lib Dems need to get rid of Cable. The only problem with that is the lack of candidates to take over ...
Also she is of Palestinian heritage so JC will be moonstruck and give her whatever she wants in the inevitable coalition negotiations.
If that is right, the question is whether it would remain the case through a GE campaign. It may well not.
The great miracle of current politics is that Corbyn's plate keeps still keeps spinning with the very people who hate Brexit most. In any rational political world, they would have at least gone luke-warm on him. But perhaps that requires all hope to have been dashed and for Brexit to have happened before the scales will fall from their eyes.
The idea that Corbyn was something new in politics was clerly risible. He was the same old same old, knowing full well he would not - could not - deliver that which his supporters expected of him. But he was happy to take their votes on the back of that delusion. The oldest trick in politics.
I suspect that has something to do with it. He could repeat the same trick twice, but you're only the new fresh thing on the menu once in politics, in my view.
Given that the government has not reintroduced the dementia tax nor done anything good about student debt the most obvious cause of this is Brexit. Whether, as Roger says, the flickering hopes of remainers in Corbyn have finally been extinguished or people are just bored to tears about it is harder to say.
It may be that May's positioning as the leader of a soft Brexit is attracting some remainers back into the Tory fold and, conversely, losing the odd hard Brexiteer. It is only the odd percent, and again it may just be noise, but there are some hints in recent polling that UKIP has a pulse, even if they don't in practice have any actual candidates.
All in all, this doesn't seem to be too much to get excited about. It is about as great a condemnation of Corbyn as you could get that May is getting even modest boosts as best PM at the same time she is allowing speculation of an October election to float about because she can't get her own way in Parliament. But we are where we are as Blair used to say.
While the SNP are past masters at bribing the middle class, not even they have tried that....
Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
"crush the saboteurs in my own party!"
"Help me get a soft/hard brexit and face down JRM/Soubry [please delete as appropriate for your constituency]"
Or do they just mean that live in a home owned by their family?
Some of this is generation 'choose to rent' because they prefer the flexibility/want to live in high cost of living areas.
Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.
My friend owns a house that he rents out, and rents another (In Leicester where he has a remarkably good size house for 700 a month... )
Which side would he fall into ?
Shutting the farmyard gate after the horse has bolted. Eugenics is what we needed before Brexit.
My anecdata would suggest that Generation Rent put off having children, as indeed the student debt hangover may also contribute shortly. The young can only support so many non-working dependants.
Promoting marriage and having children is not eugenics.
Looking at sub-samples, which are not statistically robust, leads to erroneous conclusions, as in this thread header. The 2 main parties remain essentially "neck & neck" - neither really know what to do about Brexit.
Biologically, women are supposed to have children in their early 20s, but this is usually economically impossible.
It is much harder even in your early 30s.
Is this the moment the left officially abandoned Stalin for Hitler?
I suppose it goes against the spirit of the age.
Fortunately modern society and medicine has changed that.
The more men who do this, the less the need for women who want to have a career to have kids late.
I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.
As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.
It’s not very “conservative”.
Then again, I have no idea about the economics of running such a place; all I know is that it's expensive, but he gets a great deal out of it.
What I could not understand is why Bessell, for example, did not write to the chap who sacked Josiffe and ask for his NI card ‘for a constituent’. Furthermore, there was, IIRC a fairly simple mechanism for replacing a lost card. Apart from buying one in a pub!
And that might be a large factor in this: the fact many of us no longer live near a familial support structure.
One word of warning: friends of ours were a very career-orientated couple. She wanted to continue working, but the moment she had her first child she wanted to care for it - and a fair few years later she's not gone back to work. Intentions can change when you first hold that mewling bag of puke and sh*t.
And I say that as a man on behalf of women everywhere. (tm Stephen Colbert)
It’s just a Corbynista sensed a chance to create a straw man so he could climb up on a high horse and grabbbed it with both hands. It’s the way the world is these days, I’m afraid.
https://twitter.com/robert_e_kelly/status/998422440165294081?s=21
But, you’d then probably be having a conversation about the “career gap” between those who stayed to look after their kids, and those who didn’t and powered on.
Given the daft decision to make education (or training etc) compulsory until 18, it seems a little harsh to expect women to have three years of adulthood before thinking about kids.
Of course, that can have consequences for fertility. As can high house prices. In a world where a man can earn enough by himself to buy a house, it's easier to have kids at a younger age.
"I don't know how Thorpe refrained from murdering Scott. I would have done."
Repeat after me, Jeremy Corbyn is bad at day to day politics.
When I lived there I rented from a couple who rented a much nicer flat from someone else.
It seems there’s quite a gulf between support for Unionism and hard Brexit.
If only we’d listened to Mr Gladstone.
"it is now clear that for most as well as starting their working life their 20s are a time to travel, date, and have fun before their responsibilities kick in in their 30s."
I think you're reflecting the difference between what is now called the 'Metropolitan elite' and normal people. Normal people don't finish their 'A' levels and fret about where to go for their 'gap year'. What do you live on while you're gallivanting around the world?
I assumed they only appeared in middleclass sit-coms set in the South. They may be spreading slowly, I suppose, but they've not really reached the NW of England yet.