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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot n
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I think it will be Gove & Sajid in a CON members’ ballot not Moggsy or BoJo
Ever since last June when Theresa May lost the Conservative Party its majority there has always been a chance of a leadership contest. We have had repeated stories about MPs being ready to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee seeking a confidence vote. The fact that this has not materialised so far doesn’t mean it is not going to happen.
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https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/996691723135963137?s=21
Gove is an interesting one and I admire him.for his fresh thinking. However, he seems a bit like a Tory Ed Miliband in his awkwardness prevents his credibility as a leader. Mordaunt or Raab would be much better choices to represent the Leavers.
We all know there is a lot of backstabbing in politics but Gove's record consists mainly of stabbing people in the front, as David Cameron, Boris Johnson and British fishermen know to their cost.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/62790355829002240
Gove I think has pissed off too many people to win but I’ve eventually gone green on him.
Still think it could be Javid v Hunt though.
Maybe Javid and McVey? Or Javid and Hunt?
Wake up and smell the coffee - at Costa and Starbucks.
Both Javid and Gove have the ability to think on their feet under the pressure of media interview and sound intelligent. I think that will factor heavily into the tory thinking given what happened in the last campaign.
That said, Gove is toxic to a large part of the electorate and may not have had enough time in his current role to erase then memory of his time as education secretary. I think it would be a big risk for him to be put forward. I therefore think that it could well be Hunt and Javid.
My guess is that ultimately they will not trust the membership to make the choice and Javid will end up being the chosen one.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/996703634611212288
Other big lays in the former market include Corbyn and Miliband D.
Nevertheless it is the toughest brief in the cabinet, it is testament to May's survival instincts that she survivied so long there.
FPT: that must be the first time Mogg has been described as being on the left
He's a big fan of Ayn Rand.
So Rand vs Marx could be the GE 2022 election in summary!!!!
*And also my wallet.
I cast around for another swivel-eyed loon, and my gaze alighted on Esther...
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/996709498051088385
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
What a time to be alive.
Politics hey
Customers of Nandos, Dominos and KFC are the Conservative Brexit voters nowadays.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nationalised-east-coast-rail-line-returns-209m-to-taxpayers-8866157.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/east-coast-rail-firm-directly-operated-railways-boosts-profits-8181255.html
The chips are compatible with GPS and GLONASS tracking, they tried to get them compatible with Galileo as well but the project is so disorganised and they weren't able to get a firm confirmation on access pricing, specifications and a few other major issues so they decided to dump it and release without. They hope to have it in the next model, but it's going to be tough because they aren't getting any answers.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/16/pmqs-may-corbyn-brexit-uk-wont-benefit-from-free-trade-deal-with-us-say-harvard-academics-politics-live?page=with:block-5afc0dd5e4b0a1f83476d40e#block-5afc0dd5e4b0a1f83476d40e
No other criterion matters a damn - pull someone off the street who ticks those boxes if the PCP can't supply them!
No, I am suggesting that an independent country would have an independent trade policy under MaxFac.
If the EU want to make it hard to import antiques, then they can. But as a key centre of the world antiques trade; we'll likely not keep those silly rules.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/16/labour-would-end-hostile-environment-immigration-policy-says-abbott-yarls-wood-brook-house
An effective campaigner as Tory leader would smash the Opposition into the middle of next week.
The one technical point I'd make is that it's unlikely that a candidate would need the support of 100+ MPs.
To reach the final two, you have to finish in the top two in the round-of-three. To be absolutely assured of that, you do indeed need more than 1/3 of the MPs (i.e. at least 106) but the more that the leading candidate scores, the fewer votes the second candidate needs. So if the leading candidate secures 150 votes, then the next one only needs more than (316-150)/2 i.e. 89. That said, the bigger the deficit among MPs, the harder it becomes to run a credible campaign.
Public/private partnership medium-term
Chrissy Grayling, the people's transport secretary.
Who'd a thunk it.
Theresa May is a useless debater and a useless campaigner. Dave was absolutely miles ahead of her.
Franchising is dead.
Discuss.
Who knows that GCSE's are now graded from 1 to 9 and not A* to E? But teachers have no idea what the different grades are meant to be. The GCSEs essentially now have zero or minimal coursework and a massive increase in content. And then the Baccalaureate which is really just a means to channel children through doing a specific set of GCSEs. It offers no merit outside of that and results in a narrowing of subjects taught at schools as those subjects that arent part of it are skipped by the brighter kids.
Some of the changes I'm sympathetic to, and its fairly clear that the left only object to it when its Conservative ministers interfering with the curriculum, not when it was Labour.
But Gove is a bit marmite....
She isnt that bad. She's a bit wooden but she can hold her own. Terrible decision.
I'm no Corbyn fan but on a the most fundamental neutral measure of forcing the govt to change its policies, Her Majesty's Opposition has been rather effective, I must admit.
The only other option - to keep the current franchisee on - would have looked ludicrous. They clearly need to suffer some form of penalty for failing to meet their commitments (thought it should be noted that the failure of the state-owned Network Rail to keep *its* commitments was part of Virgin-Stagecoach's problem).
The ability of the government to act as an operator of last resort is a useful disincentive for bidders to bid high and then renegotiate once the contract is in the pocket - but not only does it not undermine the franchise model, it actually strengthens it.
Of the 2 Javid is more electable and has a higher yougov approval rating though and is probably the best prospect