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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fewer don’t knows and a greater certainty to vote give the LDs a 3 percent post-conference boost
Looking at the detail and comparing it with other recent polls from the firm most of the movement for the LDs is as a result of fewer GE2010 voters who were saying don’t know now saying they are voting for Clegg’s party. There is also a greater certainty to vote.
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"I distinctly remember Tony Blair, in one of his first speeches after being elected leader, telling his party not to be afraid to talk about its socialism. After which he never mentioned it again. And there was a reason he didn’t mention it. People weren’t all that keen on it. It conjured some negative images. Unburied corpses. Large walls stretching across western Europe. That sort of thing...
After all, it was Ed Miliband who said in his first conference speech, “Red Ed? Come off it.” It was also someone who looked remarkably like Ed Miliband who said “The new generation of Labour is different. Different attitudes, different ideas, different ways of doing politics.” And I’m pretty sure that it was Ed Miliband who told Charles Moore “I believe capitalism is the least worst system we’ve got.”
Then again, that was back in the days when Ed Miliband was relatively fresh, and Labour were still doing pretty well in the polls, and the Tories looked like they were going to hand him victory on a plate. Now Labour is fighting for its life, and Miliband needs something to dynamite the negative perceptions that have set like concrete around his leadership. Feeding the public’s craving for a return to socialism should do the trick. After all, it worked a treat for Enver Hoxha."
All the parties get a 2-3% boost then we finish extactly where we started. Happens every year.
True enough - I also believe Nick Clegg, saw a small improvement with his leadership ratings.
So Burnham's wife has a corporate jaunt on a yacht berthed in Cannes and tweets about hosting drinks "on our boat in Cannes harbour".
Rank arriviste snobbery from Labour.
No Tory would make such a claim. The place to berth one's yacht is Monte Carlo not Cannes.
I used to run threads every September saying take no notice of conference season polls
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDlXIKzUkqk
"Men dressed as women were among the attackers who massacred shoppers at a mall in Kenya, it has been claimed.
A government minister said that the terrorists who attacked the shopping complex in Nairobi were all men, but added that some were dressed as women.
Earlier, a white woman wearing a veil was reportedly spotted shouting orders to gunmen in Arabic during the attack on the Westgate complex in the Kenyan capital.
Some reports linked Samantha Lewthwaite, the English widow of 7/7 bomber Jermaine Lindsay, and the attack.
She is wanted by Kenyan police over links to a suspected terrorist cell."
The Nairobi terror attack is totally eclipsing the Titanic sinking of Labour's credibility in Brighton.
Were it not for the Kenyan smokescreen, we would undoubtedly be seeing crossover to a Tory lead in the polls this week.
But you have kind of made my point. What is needed is proper investment in high speed fibre-optic links for the whole country. That is where the investment should go if we really want to help British business on a wide scale. That is where some of the HS2 money would be far better spent.
Now if you disagree with someone you wave your hand and say "I simply don't accept that..."
"The idea that suddenly at 18 you're an adult just doesn't quite ring true," says child psychologist Laverne Antrobus, who works at London's Tavistock Clinic.
"My experience of young people is that they still need quite a considerable amount of support and help beyond that age."
Child psychologists are being given a new directive which is that the age range they work with is increasing from 0-18 to 0-25.
"We are becoming much more aware and appreciating development beyond [the age of 18] and I think it's a really good initiative," says Antrobus, who believes we often rush through childhood, wanting our youngsters to achieve key milestones very quickly.
The new guidance is to help ensure that when young people reach the age of 18 they do not fall through the gaps in the health and education system. The change follows developments in our understanding of emotional maturity, hormonal development and particularly brain activity.
"Neuroscience has made these massive advances where we now don't think that things just stop at a certain age, that actually there's evidence of brain development well into early twenties and that actually the time at which things stop is much later than we first thought," says Antrobus.
There are three stages of adolescence - early adolescence from 12-14 years, middle adolescence from 15-17 years and late adolescence from 18 years and over."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24173194
So, how does this correlate with wee Eck's Votes at 16?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2429696/191-drivers-aged-100-older-road-number-70s-licences-hits-time-high-million.html#ixzz2fiukNmQu
FPT: HS2
at what point, if any, does NIMBYism become legitimate in that it preserves (ok let's call it conserves) what we believe makes England special?
Is every development good in itself or is there an allowable cost/benefit where the costs can't necessarily be quantified?
Helps if you have McBride smearing all of your opponents right enough.
http://www.linkedin.com/in/derekdraper1967
Of course, the vast majority of moderate muslims are non-violent and totally condemn etc.etc.etc.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/sebastian-payne/2013/09/jon-cruddas-distances-himself-from-the-one-nation-vaccination/
"Jon Cruddas has just denied the front page story in today’s Times – that Labour is planning to deny benefits to mothers who refuse to give their child the MMR jab. I have just chaired a fringe meeting on the Big Society and asked him afterwards if the story was true. He told me that the idea was originally floated by ‘Kevin Rudd in Australia’ and was ‘never part of the Labour policy review’.
The question now stands of how an a vaguely mooted idea, which was never apparently considered part of Labour’s policy review, made it as a front page of a national newspaper. Pretty much everyone in Labour now seem to running away from it as fast as possible."
@Cyclefree,
Did you see this article from the Spectator?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/the-silence-of-our-friends-the-extinction-of-christianity-in-the-middle-east/?fb_ref=recommendations-box-widget
Ed Balls went onto ITV Daybreak this morning saying ‘there is no question of a Labour government ever taking child benefit away or punishing parents for choices they make on vaccinations’:
The question now stands of how an a vaguely mooted idea, which was never apparently considered part of Labour’s policy review, made it as a front page of a national newspaper. Pretty much everyone in Labour now seem to running away from it as fast as possible.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/jon-cruddas-distances-himself-from-the-one-nation-vaccination/
http://www.globallegalpost.com/global-view/uk-must-up-its-broadband-ambitions-18401392/#.UkBHL4aURIk
But it doesn't have to be a one-cap-fits-all situation. We can do both. People will still need to travel. Look at the chart I linked to earlier about the growth in passenger numbers - do you want to bet that increase will continue?
But this is PB.
And such events hold our attention no longer than "a small earthquake in Chile".
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret4m
Newsnight asking me to debate @DPMcBride re his book. Just asked my mate Fergie if he would do debate with Manager of Blackburn reserves
Surely you just berth your launch - the actual toy stays out to sea in non-territorial waters?
Please confirm that you haven't.
Either way - its one of those horrible sticky stories that has just enough credibility to superglue itself onto Labour this week and then pop up from time to time as urban legend. UKIP must be delighted.
In which case whichever MP it was was just being incredibly rude to a PG.
Edit: Also of course that £530 million is around 1/100th of the amount being spent on HS2.
"Non-territorial waters" indeed.
Very easy to get revenge without breaking moderation rules.
Just scrape the barnacles off your clinker built dinghy and tweet about drinks on your yacht in the Merseyside Marina.
Here are some ships cats - with hammocks http://oldtimeycats.com/tagged/maritime
This is the end of the matter.
You can either abide by the site rules....
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/22/kick-uglism-out-politics-david-schneider
Further reference points might have included Michael Gove and Boris Johnson.
Would you be willing to pay that extra cost over the current phased scheme? If so, fair enough.
AIUI (and I may be wrong) the Heathrow links are planned as part of phase 2:
Ah yes:
http://assets.hs2.org.uk/sites/default/files/inserts/130116 heathrow route description for ehs final policy approved text.pdf
When the Hybrid Bill goes in, it will have alterations to Phase 1 to allow preparatory works for the Heathrow links to be made, preventing Phase 1 from having to close when the link is constructed.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-leader-ed-miliband-warns-airports-chief-over-extra-heathrow-runways-8834677.html
Oh sorry he's just 'deeply concerned' whatever that means...
And you thought FPTP was a brutal system?
Muslims are the biggest victims of Islamist violence and terror. And it is also true that non-Muslims living in the Middle East and countries such as Pakistan are deliberately targeted for violence and terror. Islamist ideology is a threat to all and sundry wherever it is allowed to get a grip.
"The Ministry of Defence admitted this week that 18 members of the 400-strong 7 Parachute Regiment Royal Horse Artillery failed mandatory drug tests last month after apparently using what they believed were legal “Fat Stripper” training supplements. The soldiers included two sergeant-majors." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/defence/article3876155.ece
I've probably changed my mind on that over the last year or two.
But saying that all children must be vaccinated before they can go to school seems eminently sensible. Exemptions should be allowed only for genuine medical reasons.
You wouldn't know it from the lazy headlines, but the German election results are bad news for Angela Merkel, and also for David Cameron":
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/4171/german_eurosceptics_cost_merkel_her_majority
But I really think you're overestimating the amount of people who can telecommute for those journeys.
Let's take an example: the BBC moved many of their operations to Manchester. Despite having some world-class telecoms links, and absolutely world-class technical people, they spent more than £1.9 million in travel between London and Manchester:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/9861270/BBC-spends-26000-on-taxis-between-London-and-Salford.html
Mrs J cannot work from home, even though she works at a computer all day. She needs to interact with other designers, work in the lab, and occasionally make journeys to the other offices scattered around the country. That interactivity would be impossible over Internet links. Believe me, it's been tried.
(As an aside, a friend of ours recently travelled by taxi from Cambridge to a five-star hotel in London as he couldn't carry all his equipment on a train. The taxi driver said it was the strangest and heaviest load he'd ever carried on a long-distance journey. The hotel paid the bill no questions asked, and he got to wave his magic wand all over their rooms ...)
I do love your cat posts.
The balance between conscientious objection and a cluster of likely victims would need to be considered too.
It is just that today I am not in a mood to eyeball reality.
Hence my focus on the Labour Party Conference.
And if there is an outbreak when children are older, the disease itself is more serious and there is a higher risk of fatalities. This really is a bit of a no-brainer. Other countries in the EU have a policy of making school admission (to any school) conditional on vaccination. The benefits question should be irrelevant.
http://www.aljazeera.com/
I accept there are lots of circumstances where people need to travel. But there are also huge areas where it is not necessary and is only done because of the lack of high speed communications.
Like FPTP, MMP (with a 5% threshold) punishes divided left/right blocs.
But it does it in the opposite way!
FPTP punishes you if the vote is split too evenly, e.g. Lab/SDP in 1983.
German MMP punishes you if you split the vote too lopsidedly, e.g. Merkel would have a secure right-wing majority if the FDP had done a little better, even at the CDU's expense. As a result of crushing them, she now finds herself in a minority instead...
Very difficult, very dangerous work.
The Honorable Artillery Company are the best at it, but I'm sure that the Pegasi (as the HAC call them) are also pretty good
I doubt if this conference will be as bad or as good as painted or even rememberd after a few days. And the same applies to all the other ones as well.
Much easier to rationalise that way, whether they are Shia not Sunni (heresy!), or Sunni but not Wahhabist (Liberal!), or are generally behaving in an 'unislamic manner' (such as being schooled while female, or daring to show a strand of hair (immodest!) or simply wanting to marry someone not on the Approved List (whore!). Then of course there is a large contingent of otherwise devout muslims who have committed the grave - and often fatal - sin of living with non-muslims without pursuing Jihad (traitors/collaborators!).
Etc, etc, etc...
It's just brilliant regimental mash-up stuff - I read it twice to make sure I wasn't going bonkers from too many cats...
If this was the case then preventing kids going to school would not kick in as a threat for a number of these parents. But you would still have children mixing with friends outside of the school/playgroup setting and still not have the herd immunity.
Obviously it would help to some extent but I am not sure it would be the complete answer.
'Thought it was quite funny that poor Mr Hodges was told to "Fuck off out of cenference, it's members only".
The PB Bryants remind us daily that Hodges is a joke and yet Labour are too frit to let him into their conference.
The other thought is the question the young Irishman asked his priest ... "Father is it all right to sleep with a girl?" "Of course" said the priest. "The trouble is you young people don't sleep!"
However, saying all children must be vaccinated is ridiculous. Are you really willing to prevent a child having an education because of this? And once that precedent is set, where do you head next?
The way forward for MMR uptake is increased education of parents and parents-to-be, and a widespread media mea culpa stronger than the one Private Eye had a few years ago. Punitive measures on children - who have no say on whether they are inoculated or not - is not a solution.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=columnists&article=197&
Tom McTague @MirrorMcTague
For eg: Ed Balls urges delegates not to be "awed by the scale of what needs to be done". Cites 1945. But offers 10 hours free childcare.
Mark Witt @Mark__Witt
Ed Balls has kindly summarised his speech in one handy picture @UKLabour @edballsmp #Lab13 pic.twitter.com/MXyNDBYAiz
It would be like being governed by a Cabinet with no Oxbridge PPEs.
You start allowing hundreds of people to routinely access your sensitive IT systems from home and you create an IT infrastructure that is much more vulnerable to outside attack.
http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/fass/events/epop2013/docs/UKIP candidates and policy positions in 2013 council elections.pdf
twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/382147350824615938
*blinking ace idea*
*goes off to David Koresh School but with better hair*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzSBZdoJhik
As for capacity, as I said in the previous thread, capacity on the toads/roads and in the air needs to be expanded, rail is an antiquated way to ferry people around the country, at least in a nation this small. Going from 125mph to 200mph for £70-80bn for just 250 miles of track (distance between London and Leeds) makes little sense as it only saves a maximum of 50 minutes from the journey time. We could invest less than a fifth of that money nationwide on electrification of all current lines and in-cab signalling to enable 140mph trains, as well as lengthening platforms at major stations for 10 carriage trains.
Again, HS2 is a Tory vote buying scheme, nothing more or less. At 140mph the time saved jumping to 200mph is just 35 minutes, hardly worth the extra £60bn. Dave winning a few extra marginal seats in the Midlands most certainly is not.
Telegraph Photoshop is at it again - Balls as Michael Caine in Zulu
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100237427/labour-party-conference-drill-sgt-ed-balls-is-sounding-the-retreat-over-the-economy/
Ed Balls is one of Labour’s trusty old soldiers. He knows his chance of being leader has probably gone. So instead he has settled for being Labour’s drill sergeant.
Cool under fire. Unflinching on the face of the enemy. Ed Balls never willingly takes a step back. Today he was forced to. It was done skillfully. With order and precision. But Labour’s tactical withdrawal on the economy is now under way.
Twelve months ago Balls was leading the charge. His message then: “If we carry on like this – a divided coalition, muddling through, no vision, waiting for something to turn up – the danger is that two lost years becomes three and four and that we slip into a lost decade of slow growth, high unemployment and stagnation.”
This morning he finally bowed to the inevitable. “Conference, after three years of stagnation, it’s good news that our economy has finally started to grow again,” he said....
I asked a Muslim colleague about the 72 virgins, specifically - what did the virgins get out of this arrangement? What sins had they committed to have to suffer this for eternity? Purely in the interests of sexual equality, of course..
He said they had the pleasure of having sex with a hunk like him who had also done some good deeds. I think his answer may have been a little tongue-in-cheek.