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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ‘Peak Corbyn’ is a myth providing false reassurance to his opp
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ‘Peak Corbyn’ is a myth providing false reassurance to his opponents
As the dust settles on the 2018 local elections, it is clear that Labour did not hit the heights that they hoped to hit. A very strong showing in London offset somewhat by a frustrating lack of progress for the party in the rest of the country. The projected national vote share produced by the BBC suggested a tie, with a share of 35% each for Labour and the Conservatives (Rallings and Thrasher on the other hand gave the Tories a one point lead). A full recap of the results can be found on last weekend’s Polling Matters podcast at the end of this post.
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Yep - but its striking how some of the "Peak Corbyn" comments are coming from the Jews inside the Labour party.....
However it is still possible he could cobble together a confidence and supply deal with the SNP, the LDs and the Greens if Labour and the Tories were tied at the next general election as they were last Thursday in the NEV
Corbyn only needs a 1.2% swing to have a lead (Similiar to 2005 for the Tories), and there is almost nil (In fact it is in his favour in terms of becoming PM) electoral bias in the system right now, certainly not against Labour.
The gamble was landed by one vote after the DUP voted to prop up the Conservative government. Plus ca change...
The question is whether the Tories can win a majority.
On the only real data we have, they cannot.
But of course the phrase isn't really meant as analysis. It's propaganda, largely internal to the Labour Party. It's been a fairly successful meme so far. It also gives the Labour moderates some more cover for their continued acquiescence to his leadership.
How would being a minority govt affect the Corbyn Plan to nationalise everything? Surely he would be hamstrung from day one?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/11/leaveeu-fined-70k-breaches-of-electoral-law-eu-referendum
The 2010s have produced exciting results, much better than the snoozefests of 2001 & 5.
Thus even though the current value of Corbyn is lower than previously, the volatility in the political landscape means that an option to buy Corbyn could well have increased.
The Education Policy Institute has recently undertaken some very good research into grammar schools:
https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/11-plus-access-grammar-schools/
https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/grammar-schools-social-mobility/
https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/grammar-schools-social-mobility-analysis-policy-options/
This suggests that expanding existing grammar schools is more likely to adversely impact non grammar school pupils in those areas than setting up a new grammar school in a region where there are no grammar schools.
You said parliament can set negotiating boundaries for the government
It can’t (except by passing a law which would be ridiculous). All it can do is express its wishes - and sack the executive if it fails to comply. It can’t compel the executive to do anything.
The Liberal Democrats were fined £18,000 by the Electoral Commission, near the legal maximum fine of £20,000, mainly for “failing to provide acceptable invoices or receipts for 80 payments”.
“Where the rules are not followed, transparency is lost which is not in the public interest or as parliament intended,” said Bob Posner, the Commission’s legal counsel.
Meanwhile, the official Remain campaign, then known as Britain Stronger in Europe, now Open Britain, has paid a £1,250 fine imposed for not providing three invoices and for declaring some spending in aggregate rather than individual payments.
https://www.ft.com/content/2f91721d-9512-3c2a-9e0f-4453897183c8
Given that the additional funding is tied to the kind of change in admissions policies in favour of FSM children that has been seen in Birmingham, I don't think you can draw any such conclusion from the reports you cite (which incidentally highlight the point I made about the disproportionate and negative effect on grammar school statistics of Kent, and to a slightly lesser extent, Buckinghamshire).
If anything, the proposed policy might improve the social mix in Kent.
I note also this comment, ...even if quotas and lower qualifying scores are introduced as an interim measure, the ultimate goal should be to reduce and ultimately eliminate the attainment gap before age 11 through interventions in the early years and at primary school., which suggests a degree of utopian thinking.
(Edit - though, again, the general point is quite correct, and the influence of excellent primary education is arguably far greater than any tinkering around with secondary provision.)
As I have also said repeatedly there are now more pupils in grammar schools than there were in 1979, the rate of decline in grammar school attendance began to be reduced under Thatcher's premiership
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-average-earning-ratio-latest-unaffordable-housing-crisis-a8323086.html
I declare an interest as a non-home owner. It would be nice for the government to produce a target for what it thinks the house price to earnings ratio ought to be. 4? 5? 6? 7? Not simple I know but then inflation targeting isn't that simple either.
"Conservative Party fined £70,000 following investigation into election campaign expenses"
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-donations/conservative-party-fined-70,000-following-investigation-into-election-campaign-expenses
That is, I’d offer 10 per cent remission of fees if family income is 60 k or more, but 100 per cent if family income is 20 k or less. With the saving, I’d increase the number of direct grant places from 25 to 50 per cent.
I would run this scheme in a few selected areas of the country (e.g., North West, South Wales) and look at the effect over a 5 year period.
I think the latter is necessary so as to demonstrate that it works (in the sense of offering better social mobility).
I think the amount of money needed to try this out is tiny, and the system could be implemented quickly.
We need do something to change that. Bringing back Grammar schools is probably not the best way, but we need to do something different.
Riddle me this: Is all this grammar schools stuff in the papers this morning a diversion from the fact hthe government doesn't seem to have a ******* clue what they are going to do about Brexit?
Here’s Harriet speaking: “This is a state school that my son will be going to.”
Hopefully the likes of these will flourish: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
From memory my private school (King Henry VIII) had lower fees but better results than others within say a 20 mile radius (Princethorpe, Warwick).
Edited for Grammar...lol, I went to a state comp.
The problem of low achievement arises where schools are inadequate and the governors and local authority aren’t bothered or are incompetent. This affects children across the ability ranges and family background. The solution is to drive up standards across underperforming schools and how best to do so is where the focus and investment should be. Gove has the right instincts, and accountability is part of the answer; unfortunately, the current inspection regime is counterproductive due to its punitive nature.
And we should never forget the £9.4 million taxpayer funded propaganda leaflet which was sent By the government to every UK household promoting remain.
https://order-order.com/2018/05/11/no-10-treasury-robbins-bid-wreck-max-fac/
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-radar-reveals-mountain-collapse-north.html
According to Dreger, the new information suggests the following scenario: The explosion occurred more than a quarter mile (450 meters) below the summit of Mt. Mantap, vaporizing granite rock within a cavity about 160 feet (50 meters) across and damaging a volume of rock about 1,000 feet (300 meters) across. The blast likely raised the mountain six feet (2 meters) and pushed it outward up to 11 feet (3-4 meters), though within minutes, hours or days the rock above the cavity collapsed to form a depression.
Eight and a half minutes after the bomb blast, a nearby underground cavity collapsed, producing the 4.5-magnitude aftershock with the characteristics of an implosion.
Subsequently, a much larger volume of fractured rock, perhaps 1 mile (1-2 kilometers) across, compacted, causing the mountain to subside to about 1.5 feet (0.5 meters) lower than before the blast…
We gotta wean them off it.
I have all the best typos...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/anne-v-coates-oscar-winning-film-editor-of-lawrence-of-arabia-dies-at-92/2018/05/09/4941a71a-539e-11e8-abd8-265bd07a9859_story.html?
While making “Out of Sight,” she became friends with the film’s star, George Clooney, telling him her job was “saving an actor’s performance.”
“George thought that was funny,” Ms. Coates told the Los Angeles Times. “Jennifer Lopez, who was the female lead, came by and George said, ‘This is the editor, Anne Coates, who is going to save your performance.’ Jennifer did not think it was funny.”…
It is a primary school that Poor but bright kids fall behind the well off but dim, and the latter that get into Grammar school ahead of them. See the first graph in this report:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/time-think-differently/trends-broader-determinants-health-early-childhood-development
They were told Corbyn couldn't win, wouldn't get close. It was another Project Fear, probably ultimately with some truth, but now being restated at the point where Umunna now stands in the slipping sand and not feeling that credible.
The right line of attack against Corbyn is his beliefs, not his winningestness.
It wouldn't surprise me at all as he's going to need a new gravy train now that his MEP racket is almost over.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/994859555967381504
https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/994599017601556480
The big cities where Labour is really romping home are excluded from this round.
Rather a lot has changed since then.