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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heidi Allen: Could she be the LAB mayoral nominee in 2020 so S

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  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Scott_P said:
    Did anybody mention West Tyrone last week? Easy Sinn Fein hold, but the silver lining is that both SF and DUP were down, but the SDLP and UUP went up.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,226
    That challenge is beyond May.

    Or indeed anyone else.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    If you've read Tim Shipman's book this sounds very familiar.
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/994542340529324032
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    Pulpstar said:

    May seems far more popular with the British public right now than she does on this website.

    One could almost believe that the public don't share our preoccupations.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    [after allowing the simulated Tory Majority to be destroyed]

    Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?

    TSE: Granted.

    Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.

    TSE: And why not?

    Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.

    TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?

    Theresa: No, sir, it has not.

    TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

    Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.

    TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Scott_P said:
    We should have put Nigel Farage in charge of Brexit.
    There was a young man named Farage
    Who one day got stuck in his garage
    He campaigned so hard
    But let down his guard
    And fell to an electoral barrage
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,445
    edited May 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
    David Leakey's interview utterly damns Bercow.
    Bercow is personally rude, politically inconsistent but has always been consistently pompous.

    That’s why no-one likes him.
    Once a Monday Club Twat always a Monday Club Twat as an old Oxonian once told me.

    I wonder if he still supports forced repatriation of darkies?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This isn't going to end well for Bercow...
    They’ll cut him down to size
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This isn't going to end well for Bercow...
    Oh yes it is !
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2018
    The compensation for this poor man should be straight out of Blair's pocket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44070304

    Absolubtely shameful.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
    David Leakey's interview utterly damns Bercow.
    Bercow is personally rude, politically inconsistent but has always been consistently pompous.

    That’s why no-one likes him.
    If MPs wanted Bercow out then their opportunity was 10 months ago at the start of the new parliament. It has been said that Bercow champions backbenchers over ministers. Perhaps there is something in that because his continued presence suggests most MPs either want him to stay or at worst do not feel very strongly about it.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. L, or that they don't want to risk upsetting the Speaker.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,720
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    On Brexit a Norway style deal would be the best option but I have no idea how we arrive there. Furthermore, Brexiters would be justified in feeling betrayed. However I believe it is time to stop abusing each other, remainers to levers and levers to remainers

    Maybe naive but the end result will have to be a compromise and the Country needs to move on

    May was dreadful yesterday and seems to be completely distracted, though I doubt anyone on here would be much different in the circumstances.

    Replacing TM will not change the direction of travel and even Boris would not be able to change the maths. We are heading for a soft Brexit, no matter who leads the Country

    May is the problem not the solution. Personally I don't want Boris as PM but someone like Javid, Hunt or one of the younger intake with Gove in one of the Great Offices would certainly be able to take us forward in a way that May seems to be incapable of doing.

    I still have my £100 bet with Richard N that we end up in EFTA/EEA and I am not giving up hope on it yet.
    Given that requires free movement and Leave would not have won without promising to end it that is very unlikely to happen, especially as neither the Tories nor Corbyn support it
    I know it is very unlikely. But it would still be my preferred compromise solution.
    It is very unlikely precisely because working class Leave voters would be furious, agreed
    Surely all you need to do is say "Brexit means Brexit" for a while to ensure UKIP dies out, then let the negotiations get bogged down in tedious details that nobody understands, and by then everyone's forgotten what they thought in 2016 anyway.
    By the next general election in 2022 if free movement is not ended UKIP may revive
    This is just project fear.

    UKIP are a busted flush and anyone in the mainstream parties should have the confidence to take them on. The time to treat them as an acceptable adjunct to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tories is over.
    UKIP are only a busted flush as the Tories and Labour have promised to implement Brexit and end free movement. If they both reversed that course UKIP would instantly fill the gap in the market for Leave voters who feel betrayed
    Maybe a new party, but not UKIP. The comedy party leadership antics have made UKIP a generally recognised laughing stock.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
    David Leakey's interview utterly damns Bercow.
    Bercow is personally rude, politically inconsistent but has always been consistently pompous.

    That’s why no-one likes him.
    Once a Monday Club Twat always a Monday Club Twat as an old Oxonian once told me.

    I wonder if he still supports forced repatriation of darkies?
    I agree that we need term limits for the speaker ... and the PM. Parliaments can in theory last five years but I think eight years is a more reasonable limit than ten.

    There've been two PMs since 1945 who got to 10 or 11 years. People couldn't wait to see the back of them.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    Maybe a new party, but not UKIP. The comedy party leadership antics have made UKIP a generally recognised laughing stock.

    It's significant that they don't even poll well on the question of which party would be best to handle Brexit.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,862


    [after allowing the simulated Tory Majority to be destroyed]

    Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?

    TSE: Granted.

    Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.

    TSE: And why not?

    Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.

    TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?

    Theresa: No, sir, it has not.

    TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

    Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.

    TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
    Carry On Regardless!!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,445


    [after allowing the simulated Tory Majority to be destroyed]

    Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?

    TSE: Granted.

    Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.

    TSE: And why not?

    Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.

    TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?

    Theresa: No, sir, it has not.

    TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

    Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.

    TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
    Carry On Regardless!!
    Carry on up the Khyber and Carry on don’t lose your head were my favourites.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
    So when he says the problem is that Remainers "genuinely believe that the only real issue for Leavers was immigration", you don't think that has anything to do with the nature of the Leave campaign?
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,720


    [after allowing the simulated Tory Majority to be destroyed]

    Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?

    TSE: Granted.

    Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.

    TSE: And why not?

    Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.

    TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?

    Theresa: No, sir, it has not.

    TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

    Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.

    TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
    Carry On Regardless!!
    Carry On Rewardless!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335

    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    All this fuss because Bercow pissed off David Cameron -- who is not even in parliament any more.
    He pissed off more than Dave.
    David Leakey's interview utterly damns Bercow.
    Bercow is personally rude, politically inconsistent but has always been consistently pompous.

    That’s why no-one likes him.
    If MPs wanted Bercow out then their opportunity was 10 months ago at the start of the new parliament. It has been said that Bercow champions backbenchers over ministers. Perhaps there is something in that because his continued presence suggests most MPs either want him to stay or at worst do not feel very strongly about it.
    Labour MPs like him because he annoys the Tories and takes one of their MPs (at least nominally) out of play.

    Bercow still has a few fans on the backbenches elsewhere, or used to, because for all his faults he did institute a few reforms to better hold the Executive to account.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945


    [after allowing the simulated Tory Majority to be destroyed]

    Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?

    TSE: Granted.

    Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.

    TSE: And why not?

    Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.

    TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?

    Theresa: No, sir, it has not.

    TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

    Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.

    TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
    Carry On Regardless!!
    Carry on up the Khyber and Carry on don’t lose your head were my favourites.

    Khyber and Screaming.

    Although the best individual line in Carry on history has to be

    Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me!
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
    The genuine belief of Remainers of the paramount importance of immigration.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340


    [after allowing the simulated Tory Majority to be destroyed]

    Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?

    TSE: Granted.

    Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.

    TSE: And why not?

    Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.

    TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?

    Theresa: No, sir, it has not.

    TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

    Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.

    TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
    Carry On Regardless!!
    Carry on up the Khyber and Carry on don’t lose your head were my favourites.

    Khyber and Screaming.

    Although the best individual line in Carry on history has to be

    Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me!
    We agree on the top two films.

    But the best line must be:

    "I want to be wooed."
    "Oh you can be as wooed as you like!"
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929


    Labour MPs like him because he annoys the Tories and takes one of their MPs (at least nominally) out of play.

    Actually that is not true,

    Neither Lindsay Hoyle, Eleanor Laing, Rosie Winterton nor Bercow (Deputy Speaker/Chairman and 1st and 2nd Deputy ways & Means) vote by convention. 2 Lab, 2 Con

    It very marginally increases the power of the non Con, non Lab forces in the house.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
    The genuine belief of Remainers of the paramount importance of immigration.
    Yep you all genuinely believe that. He doesn't say you are right. Indeed you are utterly wrong. As I say you have not even misrepresented what he said you have just made stuff up.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    Pulpstar said:


    Labour MPs like him because he annoys the Tories and takes one of their MPs (at least nominally) out of play.

    Actually that is not true,

    Neither Lindsay Hoyle, Eleanor Laing, Rosie Winterton nor Bercow (Deputy Speaker/Chairman and 1st and 2nd Deputy ways & Means) vote by convention. 2 Lab, 2 Con

    It very marginally increases the power of the non Con, non Lab forces in the house.
    That’s why I said nominally. He occupies a safe Tory seat.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Pulpstar said:


    Labour MPs like him because he annoys the Tories and takes one of their MPs (at least nominally) out of play.

    Actually that is not true,

    Neither Lindsay Hoyle, Eleanor Laing, Rosie Winterton nor Bercow (Deputy Speaker/Chairman and 1st and 2nd Deputy ways & Means) vote by convention. 2 Lab, 2 Con

    It very marginally increases the power of the non Con, non Lab forces in the house.
    That’s why I said nominally. He occupies a safe Tory seat.
    But since he's nominally permanently paired with a Labour MP that ends up neutral.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol, Beast from the east saves homeowners bacon:

    Interest rates held.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44065472

    I’d have thought that if the MPC thought that the recent figures were dampened by the cold weather, then they’d have put up interest rates anyway.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    edited May 2018

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement.

    Remember, EEA is part of EFTA. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three countries in EFTA constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ]. In the EU, almost, but not quite!

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Labour’s support fell in almost half the 50 most marginal constituencies where all councillors were up for election last week, analysis by a party insider has found.

    The study obtained by The Times shows that in 20 of the Westminster seats examined, support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party declined between 2014 and last week. It increased in 23 Westminster seats.

    A report accompanying the analysis concluded: “Overall these results are slightly worse than 2014 and nowhere near the level that oppositions have recorded before winning general elections."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/corbyn-local-election-results-worse-than-2014-marginal-x3nf5x29r
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
    So when he says the problem is that Remainers "genuinely believe that the only real issue for Leavers was immigration", you don't think that has anything to do with the nature of the Leave campaign?
    Nope it has everything to do with the arrogance and bias of Remainers who have always refused to accept the result was caused by anything other than xenophobia. You own that one not us.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
    The genuine belief of Remainers of the paramount importance of immigration.
    Yep you all genuinely believe that. He doesn't say you are right. Indeed you are utterly wrong. As I say you have not even misrepresented what he said you have just made stuff up.
    You, like Mr Hannan, are studiously avoiding addressing where that genuine belief comes from. Because the answer is obvious: the referendum campaign based on xenophobic lies.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement.

    Remember, EEA is part of EFTA. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three countries in EFTA constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ]. In the EU, almost, but not quite!

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    Switzerland is not in a customs union with the EU. Try again.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335

    Pulpstar said:


    Labour MPs like him because he annoys the Tories and takes one of their MPs (at least nominally) out of play.

    Actually that is not true,

    Neither Lindsay Hoyle, Eleanor Laing, Rosie Winterton nor Bercow (Deputy Speaker/Chairman and 1st and 2nd Deputy ways & Means) vote by convention. 2 Lab, 2 Con

    It very marginally increases the power of the non Con, non Lab forces in the house.
    That’s why I said nominally. He occupies a safe Tory seat.
    But since he's nominally permanently paired with a Labour MP that ends up neutral.
    I know. I think they just liked the dynamic of taking the MP of theirs they disliked the most from their caucus and making him the speaker.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement. Remember, EEA is part of EFTA.

    Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three in EFTA are constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ].

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    No you can't. The EEA has their own customs arrangements.

    You could theoretically have EFTA membership and a customs union but you couldn't have EEA and customs union.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    I know this retarded, and I don’t mean this in an unkind way, but that photo of Heidi Alexander looks like she’s aged about 22 and someone has added 20 years of aging to it.

    Something very youthful about her underlying face.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945
    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement.

    Remember, EEA is part of EFTA. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three countries in EFTA constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ]. In the EU, almost, but not quite!

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    Nope because unlike the SM, the Customs Union is an integral part of EU membership, not EEA membership. You cannot be in the Customs Union and not an EU member (unless you are so small and insignificant like San Marino or Andorra that it makes no difference).

    Being in a separate Customs Union like Turkey means any country with an FTA with the EU can import into your country tariff free but you do not get the reciprocal rights.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
    The genuine belief of Remainers of the paramount importance of immigration.
    Yep you all genuinely believe that. He doesn't say you are right. Indeed you are utterly wrong. As I say you have not even misrepresented what he said you have just made stuff up.
    You, like Mr Hannan, are studiously avoiding addressing where that genuine belief comes from. Because the answer is obvious: the referendum campaign based on xenophobic lies.
    It comes from the shortsighted arrogance of remainers who refuse to admit that leavers may not be xenophobic and may have a point on alternative economic arrangements being better.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    I see the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll finding that the gap is down to just 2 points again (43% right v.45% wrong) is getting very little comment on here.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Scott_P said:
    JRM hardly has any power to stop it. He is given too much importance.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,617
    Cohen is not a registered lobbyist, so what on earth were these companies paying him for ?

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/is-essential-consultants-a-slush-fund-for-donald-trump

    The companies have offered varying explanations for their payments, none of them persuasive. A.T. & T. said that it wanted “insights” into the Trump Administration; that is not something you pay the President’s personal attorney to give you, under any circumstances. (Did the company expect the lowdown on Trump’s next moves? That would possibly be a violation of attorney-client privilege.) It is particularly not something you pay for when, as was the case with A.T. & T., you are trying to get Cohen’s client’s other subordinates to approve a merger. That might be topped by Korea Aerospace’s statement saying that it had turned to Essential Consultants for advice on meeting “accounting standards on production costs.” Korea Aerospace, alongside Lockheed Martin, is currently competing for a defense contract. Columbus Nova, acknowledging to the Times that it had paid Essential Consultants a “consulting fee,” concentrated on denying that the payment had anything to do with Vekselberg. Novartis said that it was looking for advice on medical matters—from Cohen, whose experience in this field, as Rolling Stone recently reported, has involved doing legal work for clinics that were, essentially, insurance-fraud mills….
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Daniel Hannan has belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies. His salty tears get no sympathy from me.

    Why don't you tweet him and tell him straight? :D
    He won't because what Mr Meeks has claimed is once again utter garbage.

    Here is what Hannan actually wrote.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2018/05/daniel-hannan-for-partisan-advantage-labour-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

    Spot the difference.
    I particularly like the way he states that no one gets 100% of what they want and then immediately expresses his expectation that what would emerge would be exactly what he wanted.

    He is oddly vague about how Remain supporters could have got the genuine belief that the Brexit vote was all about immigration. Perhaps space didn't permit him to explain.

    For two years Leave supporters have been exhorting erstwhile Remain supporters to put their shoulder to the wheel. Now they complain that Brexit should have been implemented by true believers. Talk about having your cake and eating it.
    And yet nowhere does he say what you claimed:

    "belatedly identified the problem so-called moderate Leavers now face because they fell in behind a campaign fought on xenophobic lies"

    There is nothing there that could even be obliquely read as supporting your claim.
    The genuine belief of Remainers of the paramount importance of immigration.
    Yep you all genuinely believe that. He doesn't say you are right. Indeed you are utterly wrong. As I say you have not even misrepresented what he said you have just made stuff up.
    You, like Mr Hannan, are studiously avoiding addressing where that genuine belief comes from. Because the answer is obvious: the referendum campaign based on xenophobic lies.
    Nope Remainers only ever considered that anti-EU sentiment was driven by xenophobia long before the referendum came along and you went looking for that as an excuse when you lost. It is a reflection of your state of mind not ours.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    I know this retarded, and I don’t mean this in an unkind way, but that photo of Heidi Alexander looks like she’s aged about 22 and someone has added 20 years of aging to it.

    Something very youthful about her underlying face.

    It's a very tightly cropped head shot. Those aren't normally so flattering.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement.

    Remember, EEA is part of EFTA. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three countries in EFTA constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ]. In the EU, almost, but not quite!

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    Nope because unlike the SM, the Customs Union is an integral part of EU membership, not EEA membership. You cannot be in the Customs Union and not an EU member (unless you are so small and insignificant like San Marino or Andorra that it makes no difference).

    Being in a separate Customs Union like Turkey means any country with an FTA with the EU can import into your country tariff free but you do not get the reciprocal rights.
    No one is saying that we have to be in "the" customs union, just "a" customs union which looks surprisingly similar.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Nigelb said:

    Cohen is not a registered lobbyist, so what on earth were these companies paying him for ?

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/is-essential-consultants-a-slush-fund-for-donald-trump

    The companies have offered varying explanations for their payments, none of them persuasive. A.T. & T. said that it wanted “insights” into the Trump Administration; that is not something you pay the President’s personal attorney to give you, under any circumstances. (Did the company expect the lowdown on Trump’s next moves? That would possibly be a violation of attorney-client privilege.) It is particularly not something you pay for when, as was the case with A.T. & T., you are trying to get Cohen’s client’s other subordinates to approve a merger. That might be topped by Korea Aerospace’s statement saying that it had turned to Essential Consultants for advice on meeting “accounting standards on production costs.” Korea Aerospace, alongside Lockheed Martin, is currently competing for a defense contract. Columbus Nova, acknowledging to the Times that it had paid Essential Consultants a “consulting fee,” concentrated on denying that the payment had anything to do with Vekselberg. Novartis said that it was looking for advice on medical matters—from Cohen, whose experience in this field, as Rolling Stone recently reported, has involved doing legal work for clinics that were, essentially, insurance-fraud mills….

    Swampy.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Nigelb said:

    Cohen is not a registered lobbyist, so what on earth were these companies paying him for ?

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/is-essential-consultants-a-slush-fund-for-donald-trump

    The companies have offered varying explanations for their payments, none of them persuasive. A.T. & T. said that it wanted “insights” into the Trump Administration; that is not something you pay the President’s personal attorney to give you, under any circumstances. (Did the company expect the lowdown on Trump’s next moves? That would possibly be a violation of attorney-client privilege.) It is particularly not something you pay for when, as was the case with A.T. & T., you are trying to get Cohen’s client’s other subordinates to approve a merger. That might be topped by Korea Aerospace’s statement saying that it had turned to Essential Consultants for advice on meeting “accounting standards on production costs.” Korea Aerospace, alongside Lockheed Martin, is currently competing for a defense contract. Columbus Nova, acknowledging to the Times that it had paid Essential Consultants a “consulting fee,” concentrated on denying that the payment had anything to do with Vekselberg. Novartis said that it was looking for advice on medical matters—from Cohen, whose experience in this field, as Rolling Stone recently reported, has involved doing legal work for clinics that were, essentially, insurance-fraud mills….

    Bribery ? Not that anyone is saying that!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    I see the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll finding that the gap is down to just 2 points again (43% right v.45% wrong) is getting very little comment on here.

    It's slowly moving in a saw tooth pattern towards 'wrong', so this slight correction probably heralds the next shift down. ;)
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement. Remember, EEA is part of EFTA.

    Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three in EFTA are constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ].

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    No you can't. The EEA has their own customs arrangements.

    You could theoretically have EFTA membership and a customs union but you couldn't have EEA and customs union.
    I did not mean either EEA exactly or EFTA. Similar - just like T May's ambitious bespoke arrangement. Basically a new definition. Just outside the EU but looks remarkably similar.

    We will pay money annually but FoM will be different. Maybe that is what T May has in mind.
  • Options
    Can someone please explain to me what will happen to the Irish border issue should there be no deal with the EU on the day of the UK leaving
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    edited May 2018
    O/T. I've just seen a fantastic play which could be made to solve the current Brexit impasse.

    - Customs partnership is rejected
    - MaxFac is embraced
    - Announcement that first steps are made on the FTA which will prevent the need for a hard border in Ireland because of MaxFac on our only land border
    - But the compromise is that we extend the transition, just for SM/CU, to March 2022, to allow time for MaxFac and business readiness

    This assuages the CU/SM brigade, allows subsequent divergence to please us Brexiteers, cheers business, keeps the Irish border softer than just remaining in the CU, and also prevents any danger of reversal because it finishes before the next GE.

    Happy to help, No. 10, happy to help....especially if you need some peers for a year!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,862
    Mortimer said:

    O/T. I've just seen a fantastic play which could be made to solve the current Brexit impasse.

    - Customs partnership is rejected
    - MaxFac is embraced
    - Announcement that first steps are made on the FTA which will prevent the need for a hard border in Ireland because of MaxFac on our only land border
    - But the compromise is that we extend the transition, just for SM/CU, to March 2022, to allow time for MaxFac and business readiness

    This assuages the CU/SM brigade, allows subsequent divergence to please us Brexiteers, cheers business, keeps the Irish border softer than just remaining in the CU, and also prevents any danger of reversal because it finishes before the next GE.

    Happy to help, No. 10, happy to help....especially if you need some peers for a year!

    JRM rejects your proposal


    Try again
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    Can someone please explain to me what will happen to the Irish border issue should there be no deal with the EU on the day of the UK leaving

    One to ask the EU, I suspect. Neither HMG nor ROI will want to impose a border.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Can someone please explain to me what will happen to the Irish border issue should there be no deal with the EU on the day of the UK leaving

    It won't happen.

    But if it did we would have have customs borders etc erected and suddenly Ireland will be wanting a deal of some sort. Just like almost every other international border anywhere else in the globe.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    I see the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll finding that the gap is down to just 2 points again (43% right v.45% wrong) is getting very little comment on here.

    It's slowly moving in a saw tooth pattern towards 'wrong', so this slight correction probably heralds the next shift down. ;)
    You are hunchman and I claim my £5.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What a great example of nominative determinism.

    We need a Speaker Act, and fixed terms for the post.
    I don't like fixed terms. But making them the MP for the Palace of Westminster would be a good idea (the electorate being sitting MPs). Then their actual constituency can have a by-election along normal party-political lines.
    i agree with this. We border Buckingham and I have friends there; the national media hasn't picked up on the anger the people there feel about being disenfranchised electorally.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298

    I see the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll finding that the gap is down to just 2 points again (43% right v.45% wrong) is getting very little comment on here.

    It's slowly moving in a saw tooth pattern towards 'wrong', so this slight correction probably heralds the next shift down. ;)
    I like your answer - very thoughtful
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Mortimer said:

    O/T. I've just seen a fantastic play which could be made to solve the current Brexit impasse.

    - Customs partnership is rejected
    - MaxFac is embraced
    - Announcement that first steps are made on the FTA which will prevent the need for a hard border in Ireland because of MaxFac on our only land border
    - But the compromise is that we extend the transition, just for SM/CU, to March 2022, to allow time for MaxFac and business readiness

    This assuages the CU/SM brigade, allows subsequent divergence to please us Brexiteers, cheers business, keeps the Irish border softer than just remaining in the CU, and also prevents any danger of reversal because it finishes before the next GE.

    Happy to help, No. 10, happy to help....especially if you need some peers for a year!

    JRM rejects your proposal


    Try again
    JRM is just one MP and will likely oppose whatever ultimate deal is reached.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    BoE vote was 2-7 in favour of maintain.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    Can someone please explain to me what will happen to the Irish border issue should there be no deal with the EU on the day of the UK leaving

    We have to charge WTO duties to all goods entering the UK. If we do not charge anything, then that has to be the case for all goods import to the UK. Because under WTO rules you cannot discriminate between countries unless there is a FTA with that country.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    surby said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement.

    Remember, EEA is part of EFTA. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three countries in EFTA constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ]. In the EU, almost, but not quite!

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    Nope because unlike the SM, the Customs Union is an integral part of EU membership, not EEA membership. You cannot be in the Customs Union and not an EU member (unless you are so small and insignificant like San Marino or Andorra that it makes no difference).

    Being in a separate Customs Union like Turkey means any country with an FTA with the EU can import into your country tariff free but you do not get the reciprocal rights.
    No one is saying that we have to be in "the" customs union, just "a" customs union which looks surprisingly similar.
    Looking online, the following crown dependencies appear to belong to The CU although they've always been outside the EU:

    Bailiwick of Guernsey
    Bailiwick of Jersey
    Isle of Man.

    So will they stay in The CU while we get given only A CU?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    BoE vote was 2-7 in favour of maintain.

    I'm still very bearish on any change to interest rates this year.

    3 of those 7 need to change their minds amidst a relatively sluggish economy which has been growing for almost 9 years...

    More than 80k+ mortgages already >2.5% arrears at this low rate: https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/mortgage-arrears-and-possesions-update-february-2018/
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BoE vote was 2-7 in favour of maintain.

    I'm still very bearish on any change to interest rates this year.

    Two of those 7 need to change their minds amidst a relatively sluggish economy which has been growing for almost 9 years...

    More than 80k+ mortgages already >2.5% arrears at this low rate: https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/mortgage-arrears-and-possesions-update-february-2018/
    3 of 7 surely?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BoE vote was 2-7 in favour of maintain.

    I'm still very bearish on any change to interest rates this year.

    Two of those 7 need to change their minds amidst a relatively sluggish economy which has been growing for almost 9 years...

    More than 80k+ mortgages already >2.5% arrears at this low rate: https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/mortgage-arrears-and-possesions-update-february-2018/
    3 of 7 surely?
    Duh, yes, of course, thanks for the correction.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335

    I see the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll finding that the gap is down to just 2 points again (43% right v.45% wrong) is getting very little comment on here.

    It's slowly moving in a saw tooth pattern towards 'wrong', so this slight correction probably heralds the next shift down. ;)
    You have to get marks for trying, I’ll give you that.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,862

    Mortimer said:

    O/T. I've just seen a fantastic play which could be made to solve the current Brexit impasse.

    - Customs partnership is rejected
    - MaxFac is embraced
    - Announcement that first steps are made on the FTA which will prevent the need for a hard border in Ireland because of MaxFac on our only land border
    - But the compromise is that we extend the transition, just for SM/CU, to March 2022, to allow time for MaxFac and business readiness

    This assuages the CU/SM brigade, allows subsequent divergence to please us Brexiteers, cheers business, keeps the Irish border softer than just remaining in the CU, and also prevents any danger of reversal because it finishes before the next GE.

    Happy to help, No. 10, happy to help....especially if you need some peers for a year!

    JRM rejects your proposal


    Try again
    JRM is just one MP and will likely oppose whatever ultimate deal is reached.
    Do you see TM standing up to JRM?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,335
    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/994551542366769152?s=20

    If this does happen Brexit will rapidly prove to be popular.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Mortimer said:

    O/T. I've just seen a fantastic play which could be made to solve the current Brexit impasse.

    - Customs partnership is rejected
    - MaxFac is embraced
    - Announcement that first steps are made on the FTA which will prevent the need for a hard border in Ireland because of MaxFac on our only land border
    - But the compromise is that we extend the transition, just for SM/CU, to March 2022, to allow time for MaxFac and business readiness

    This assuages the CU/SM brigade, allows subsequent divergence to please us Brexiteers, cheers business, keeps the Irish border softer than just remaining in the CU, and also prevents any danger of reversal because it finishes before the next GE.

    Happy to help, No. 10, happy to help....especially if you need some peers for a year!

    JRM rejects your proposal


    Try again
    JRM is just one MP and will likely oppose whatever ultimate deal is reached.
    Do you see TM standing up to JRM?
    Yes. JRM was against a transition in the first place originally until one is agreed at which point he backed it as he was still getting his ultimate ambition. So long as the ultimate agreement is one that is acceptable May can override naysayers on anything that is transitional.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    surby said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement. Remember, EEA is part of EFTA.

    Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three in EFTA are constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ].

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    No you can't. The EEA has their own customs arrangements.

    You could theoretically have EFTA membership and a customs union but you couldn't have EEA and customs union.
    I did not mean either EEA exactly or EFTA. Similar - just like T May's ambitious bespoke arrangement. Basically a new definition. Just outside the EU but looks remarkably similar.

    We will pay money annually but FoM will be different. Maybe that is what T May has in mind.
    FoM will be the same but with a different name. Most if not all the leave ministers are pro-immigration. But yes, it may well be what Theresa May has in mind.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945
    surby said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement.

    Remember, EEA is part of EFTA. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three countries in EFTA constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ]. In the EU, almost, but not quite!

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    Nope because unlike the SM, the Customs Union is an integral part of EU membership, not EEA membership. You cannot be in the Customs Union and not an EU member (unless you are so small and insignificant like San Marino or Andorra that it makes no difference).

    Being in a separate Customs Union like Turkey means any country with an FTA with the EU can import into your country tariff free but you do not get the reciprocal rights.
    No one is saying that we have to be in "the" customs union, just "a" customs union which looks surprisingly similar.
    Like Turkey who suffer from the one way tariff problems. So much so that they had said if the EU signed TTIP they would have to withdraw from their customs union.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945

    Can someone please explain to me what will happen to the Irish border issue should there be no deal with the EU on the day of the UK leaving

    The Irish will be forced to close it on behalf of the EU.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BoE vote was 2-7 in favour of maintain.

    I'm still very bearish on any change to interest rates this year.

    3 of those 7 need to change their minds amidst a relatively sluggish economy which has been growing for almost 9 years...

    More than 80k+ mortgages already >2.5% arrears at this low rate: https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/mortgage-arrears-and-possesions-update-february-2018/
    Our father who art in threadneedle Street
    Carney by thine name
    Thy mortgage come
    Rates will be low
    In London as it is in Britain
    Give us this day our FTSE boost
    For thine is the cheap mortgage
    The exporter's and homeowner's friend
    At least until you get the sack
    Amen.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Interesting threader.

    I can see the posters now.

    What has the Labour Party ever done for the son of a Pakistani bus driver from Tooting?

    They made him Prime Minister.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/994551542366769152?s=20

    If this does happen Brexit will rapidly prove to be popular.

    It would be interesting to see how the Ultra Remainers responded to that
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BoE vote was 2-7 in favour of maintain.

    I'm still very bearish on any change to interest rates this year.

    3 of those 7 need to change their minds amidst a relatively sluggish economy which has been growing for almost 9 years...

    More than 80k+ mortgages already >2.5% arrears at this low rate: https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/mortgage-arrears-and-possesions-update-february-2018/
    Our father who art in threadneedle Street
    Carney by thine name
    Thy mortgage come
    Rates will be low
    In London as it is in Britain
    Give us this day our FTSE boost
    For thine is the cheap mortgage
    The exporter's and homeowner's friend
    At least until you get the sack
    Amen.
    I don't actually have a mortgage, but I am an exporter that doesn't often buy items from outside the UK, so am currently very pleased to see Cable having taken a bit of a knock.
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    JonWCJonWC Posts: 285
    Isn't the likely reason for the Brexit bill delays simply that the clock ticks against rebellious remainer Tory MPs and in favour of hard leavers? Surely there comes a time where the choice will be between supporting the government and no time for any deal at all. Or am I reading too much game-theoretical cunning into a leadership manifestly short on it?

    i.e. Do ya feel lucky Soubry-punk?
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,783


    [after allowing the simulated Tory Majority to be destroyed]

    Theresa: Permission to speak freely, sir?

    TSE: Granted.

    Theresa: I do not believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.

    TSE: And why not?

    Theresa: Because... there was no way to win.

    TSE: A no-win situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?

    Theresa: No, sir, it has not.

    TSE: And how we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?

    Theresa: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.

    TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.
    Carry On Regardless!!
    Carry on up the Khyber and Carry on don’t lose your head were my favourites.

    Khyber and Screaming.

    Although the best individual line in Carry on history has to be

    Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me!
    We agree on the top two films.

    But the best line must be:

    "I want to be wooed."
    "Oh you can be as wooed as you like!"
    Better still:

    Kenneth Williams "my name is Stuart Farquhar"

    Sid James "Stupid What?"

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Can someone please explain to me what will happen to the Irish border issue should there be no deal with the EU on the day of the UK leaving

    The Irish will be forced to close it on behalf of the EU.
    Border checks aren't closed borders.

    This is the EU's border with a nation it is in a customs union with:
    image

    This is the EU's border with a nation it has no customs union with:
    image

    I imagine that the Irish would prefer the second to the first so this whole customs farago is nonsense.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    If this does happen Brexit will rapidly prove to be popular.

    If this does happen people will have no appetite for economic disruption around the time the transition will be due to end.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/994551542366769152?s=20

    If this does happen Brexit will rapidly prove to be popular.

    Perhaps Lord Rose was correct, after all.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Can someone please explain to me what will happen to the Irish border issue should there be no deal with the EU on the day of the UK leaving

    Invasion!

    We will quickly reincorporate the Republic into the UK, by amphibious assaults against Dublin Bay, Cork and Rosslare, and a two-pronged land-based strike from South Armagh and County Fermanagh!

    EDIT: oops, wrong forum :)
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    HenryGMansonHenryGManson Posts: 149
    On topic, I think the only way Heidi could win selection for the London mayor is with a pre-Corbyn for leader membership. She will be associated with the 'chicken coup' of co-ordinated resignations which is a phrase I don't like but has stuck with Corbyn supporting members. So unless something dramatic happens to the membership in the next few years, I think any successor to Sadiq will come from his left not his right.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The parties have only a week to get their nomination papers in for the Lewisham East by-election.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    AndyJS said:

    The parties have only a week to get their nomination papers in for the Lewisham East by-election.

    Have they moved the writ already?
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    May seems far more popular with the British public right now than she does on this website.

    It is quite difficult to understand why May is extending her poll lead when her government appears to be on the point of collapse...

    Maybe it's sympathy?
    Maybe it's because midterm polls are pointless garbage.

    In fact that is exactly what it is.

    Why anyone affords them even the slightest bit of credence given recent experiences is beyond me.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,677

    surby said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    Except EEA means no Customs Union and allegedly Ireland needs a Customs Union?

    Are you saying that the claims that Ireland needs a Customs Union were self-serving bulls##t all along?
    There is no reason why Customs Union cannot be accommodated. It could even be May's ambitious bespoke arrangement.

    Remember, EEA is part of EFTA. Switzerland is in EFTA but not in EEA. The other three countries in EFTA constitutes the EEA.

    So we could have an EEA arrangement but not quite by including Customs Union [ Switzerland ]. In the EU, almost, but not quite!

    So you get both a FTA [ proxy for being in the SM ] and "a Customs Union" [ proxy for Customs Union. T May can call it Customs arrangement or whatever she likes.

    But we will still be outside the EU. So in compliance with the result of the referendum.

    Everyone is happy ! We will need a people's vote to ratify this arrangement.
    Nope because unlike the SM, the Customs Union is an integral part of EU membership, not EEA membership. You cannot be in the Customs Union and not an EU member (unless you are so small and insignificant like San Marino or Andorra that it makes no difference).

    Being in a separate Customs Union like Turkey means any country with an FTA with the EU can import into your country tariff free but you do not get the reciprocal rights.
    No one is saying that we have to be in "the" customs union, just "a" customs union which looks surprisingly similar.
    Looking online, the following crown dependencies appear to belong to The CU although they've always been outside the EU:

    Bailiwick of Guernsey
    Bailiwick of Jersey
    Isle of Man.

    So will they stay in The CU while we get given only A CU?
    No.

    As the UK withdrawals from the EU, the current Customs arrangements will cease.

    https://www.gov.gg/Brexit
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The parties have only a week to get their nomination papers in for the Lewisham East by-election.

    Have they moved the writ already?
    Hopefully an all-PBer shortlist? :lol:
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,617
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cohen is not a registered lobbyist, so what on earth were these companies paying him for ?

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/is-essential-consultants-a-slush-fund-for-donald-trump

    The companies have offered varying explanations for their payments, none of them persuasive. A.T. & T. said that it wanted “insights” into the Trump Administration; that is not something you pay the President’s personal attorney to give you, under any circumstances. (Did the company expect the lowdown on Trump’s next moves? That would possibly be a violation of attorney-client privilege.) It is particularly not something you pay for when, as was the case with A.T. & T., you are trying to get Cohen’s client’s other subordinates to approve a merger. That might be topped by Korea Aerospace’s statement saying that it had turned to Essential Consultants for advice on meeting “accounting standards on production costs.” Korea Aerospace, alongside Lockheed Martin, is currently competing for a defense contract. Columbus Nova, acknowledging to the Times that it had paid Essential Consultants a “consulting fee,” concentrated on denying that the payment had anything to do with Vekselberg. Novartis said that it was looking for advice on medical matters—from Cohen, whose experience in this field, as Rolling Stone recently reported, has involved doing legal work for clinics that were, essentially, insurance-fraud mills….

    Swampy.
    Sewery, rather.

    If anything (other than the electorate next time around) does bring down Trump, it will be following the money.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,617
    edited May 2018
    Neil Hamilton must be wishing he'd been born American...

    ...£2000 in a brown envelope is barely lunch money, these days.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The parties have only a week to get their nomination papers in for the Lewisham East by-election.

    Have they moved the writ already?
    Hopefully an all-PBer shortlist? :lol:
    Discrimination I can get behind.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/994551542366769152?s=20

    If this does happen Brexit will rapidly prove to be popular.

    It would be interesting to see how the Ultra Remainers responded to that
    Quite simply is that is the case under the Single Market Transition, why leave? Only a fool would rock the boat, were this to come to pass. I'm glad you have come over to our way of thinking.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,720

    I see the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll finding that the gap is down to just 2 points again (43% right v.45% wrong) is getting very little comment on here.

    The people have spoken - it's Wrong!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The parties have only a week to get their nomination papers in for the Lewisham East by-election.

    Have they moved the writ already?
    Yes, polling day is 14th June.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BoE vote was 2-7 in favour of maintain.

    I'm still very bearish on any change to interest rates this year.

    3 of those 7 need to change their minds amidst a relatively sluggish economy which has been growing for almost 9 years...

    More than 80k+ mortgages already >2.5% arrears at this low rate: https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/mortgage-arrears-and-possesions-update-february-2018/
    Our father who art in threadneedle Street
    Carney by thine name
    Thy mortgage come
    Rates will be low
    In London as it is in Britain
    Give us this day our FTSE boost
    For thine is the cheap mortgage
    The exporter's and homeowner's friend
    At least until you get the sack
    Amen.
    I don't actually have a mortgage, but I am an exporter that doesn't often buy items from outside the UK, so am currently very pleased to see Cable having taken a bit of a knock.
    That's a bit harsh, he gained two councils in SW London and plenty more seats beside. :p
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The parties have only a week to get their nomination papers in for the Lewisham East by-election.

    Have they moved the writ already?
    Yes, polling day is 14th June.

    Funny how parties always either try to drag by-elections out for as long as possible, or hold them as quickly as possible.
    Good to see it being moved so quickly. Means a better rate of return for everyone betting.
This discussion has been closed.