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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prof John Curtice suggests that LAB is not going to have an ea

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    HYUFD said:

    Well if Labour win Kensington and Chelsea on Thursday I will admit I was wrong, that is a big if however
    Good point because at the GE Labour got a whooping in Kensington, didn't they.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111

    I've delivered 5 different Lib Dem leaflets for the candidates in our two main local target wards during the past few weeks and I'll be delivering another one tomorrow. Not a single one of those leaflets have made any mention of Brexit - and our candidates are very much focused on the local issues for these elections.
    I'm glad to hear it. But leaflets does not change the issue with that PPB. The Lib Dems don't need to forget about Brexit, but they cannot afford to be defined by it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Quincel said:

    Indeed. Good thing I've not made that assumption or argument at any point. My argument is that people in their 40s-50s are more likely to vote Labour if they see their children being priced out of the area they brought them up in.
    my kids cant afford to live in my village. It doesn't make we want to vote Labour.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited May 2018
    TOPPING said:

    Good point because at the GE Labour got a whooping in Kensington, didn't they.
    Labour won Kensington by just 20 votes, the Tories won Chelsea and Fulham by thousands
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,611
    New thread folk...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Scott_P said:
    Since when has Teresa May made a robust response to anything?

    I must say it’s a delight to watch the Brexiters froth and spin. I’d have more sympathy if there was any kind of plan for Brexit. But there isn’t. Instead it continues to fall to the EU to write the actual negotiating papers, and to Remainers to figure out how the hell to do it.

    All Brexiters do is grizzle, impotently.
    In the absence of logical argument, no wonder some seek psychosexual reasons for the Brexit derangement.

    Roll on a referendum on the deal.
    We can’t go back, but we certainly ain’t going forward.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Cyclefree said:

    Thank you. That does sound very unfortunate for your friend. It does seem to me that that sort of a fine is very large and not very sensible. Perhaps a smaller fine or a warning might have been better....
    I made the same point about the apparent disproportionality of the fine earlier.

    Regarding our conversation yesterday, I note that half of Australia has decriminalised prostitution for a while now. There is evidence which tends to support both your and my views on the matter - while there do seem to be improvements in terms of health and reduction in coercion, overall it still looks a pretty nasty business, organised crime appears still to be involved, and the prevalence of the activity has (at least visibly) increased.
    Unbiased commentary is hard to come by.

    What is clear is that decriminalisation is no panacea - though I still think a Royal Commission would be a good idea.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    HYUFD said:

    Labour won Kensington by just 20 votes, the Tories won Chelsea and Fulham by thousands
    And the Tories won Rutland and Melton by 23,000 so the fuck what?

    Labour won Kensington at the GE where all those millionaire Labour voters are supposedly so worried about a Labour government putting up taxes, making them poorer, etc, as you would have it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867

    Since when has Teresa May made a robust response to anything?

    She's often been quite robust in resisting the demand to do something...
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:


    No new houses and flats? Protect our greenbelt? Tory failure on potholes? etc

    Litter, broken street lights, damaged paving, bins, flytipping, clean parks and, yes, indeed potholes.

    All of that plus the poor record of the Labour councillors who have taken the voters for granted here for so long.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,596

    I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition.
    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    edited May 2018



    I'm glad to hear it. But leaflets does not change the issue with that PPB. The Lib Dems don't need to forget about Brexit, but they cannot afford to be defined by it.

    I wouldn't mind betting that more people in my city have seen our leaflets than have seen our PPB... even I haven't watched it, to be honest. :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    edited May 2018
    TOPPING said:

    And the Tories won Rutland and Melton by 23,000 so the fuck what?

    Labour won Kensington at the GE where all those millionaire Labour voters are supposedly so worried about a Labour government putting up taxes, making them poorer, etc, as you would have it.
    Rutland is a safe Tory council.

    There are 2 parliamentary seats in Kensington and Chelsea, Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham and the Tories won a majority of over 8000 in the 2 seats combined at the last general election.

    Kensington is the poorer and more marginal of the two and Labour have won it in the past even before 2017 when it has been separated from Chelsea
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TOPPING said:

    And the Tories won Rutland and Melton by 23,000 so the fuck what?

    Labour won Kensington at the GE where all those millionaire Labour voters are supposedly so worried about a Labour government putting up taxes, making them poorer, etc, as you would have it.
    Until 1974 Kensington had two constituencies. Kensington North had some very poor areas and always voted Labour by modest majorities. Kensington South,however, was the safest Tory seat in the country at the time. When a single seat was created from 1974, it would normally be expected to be a farly comfortable Tory seat - though nothing like its Kensington South predecessor.Labour did come within 1000 votes of winning the seat at the 1988 by election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    HYUFD said:

    Rutland is a safe Tory council.

    There are 2 parliamentary seats in Kensington and Chelsea, Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham and the Tories won a majority of over 8000 in the 2 seats combined at the last general election.

    Kensington is the poorer and more marginal of the two and Labour have won it in the past even before 2017 when it has been separated from Chelsea
    They lost Kensington.

    theylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensington

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,529
    TOPPING said:

    They lost Kensington.

    theylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensingtontheylostkensington

    So what, they won Kensington and Chelsea and that is the borough up for election on Thursday not just half of it which they only lost by 20 votes anyway
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612
    Cyclefree said:

    No. The common-sense position is to say that if someone has been diagnosed by a doctor and is taking steps to transition then they are transgender. If they are not doing so and still have all their male genitalia then they are a male and should not be on all-women shortlists or in women's loos and changing rooms.

    A man claiming to "identify" as a woman without taking any actual steps to make that a reality and without any medical diagnosis of his condition and wanting to take the place of women is not a victim but a bully. And, frankly, women have had enough of men bullying them and telling them that they know best. Now we have some of them telling us what it is to be a woman. Well, they can fuck off, frankly.

    People who are genuinely transgender deserve all necessary help and support. But too many of those claiming to be fighting for transgender rights seem to me to want "rights" on the basis of the flimsiest of evidence and at the expense of women. And there are too many who are too scared to call them out on this.
    Yeah I agree with you up to the last paragraph.
    Are there really people pretending to be women to benefit from some equal opportunity policies? Given the discrimination that trans people suffer - I wouldn't have thought that would be particularly successful...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I know people on both sides of this argument who feel very strongly. The argument for the party's position is that we really can't get involved in physical examinations to determine degrees of gender and the common sense solution is to let people decide what they are. The argument against is that even after the op a trans woman won't have experienced the difficulties that women often have as they grow up even in today's society.

    I've avoided taking a view, as it's not something I'm really qualified to judge, but I can see both sides. Regardless, though, it's the sort of issue that we should not be preoccupied with as the main opposition.
    It’s a pretty good argument against all-one classification shortlists though. Surely better to take the best candidates - and if there is discrimination anywhere in the process to eliminate it at source
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    "All-PBer shortlists:"
    "All-PBer shortlists are where all the candidates have posted at least one message to PB within the last electoral cycle."

    PBer shortlists for those low in stature?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,456
    Nigelb said:

    She's often been quite robust in resisting the demand to do something...
    She sometimes manages simultaneously to resist demands to do something while also doing it and at the same time attacking others for wanting to do it. It's government by gaslighting.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,994
    rpjs said:

    Here in the US the state Departments of Motor Vehicles issue non-driving photo IDs to those that can’t or don’t want to drive.
    Exactly and easy to get a provisional here for 20 quid, driving or not.
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