The ICM 36-36 poll in July was probably the more interesting and accurate. Still the Sun will be pleased to get their moneys worth just before the Labour conference.
I wonder if Labour's new Etonian spinner will phone up the editor and call him a *cough* chump ?
The ICM 36-36 poll in July was probably the more interesting and accurate. Still the Sun will be pleased to get their moneys worth just before the Labour conference.
It will disappoint them if Fridays is back to 5/6% Labour lead. They will then be holding out hoping for the Times poll.
If this becomes a trend as it might (these things have a habit of feeding on themselves) it would give Labour the chance to ditch their leader. I can't think of an acceptable excuse for him having gone AWOL for the entire summer allowing his opponents to be the only show in town. It's unforgivable
Wishful thinking I think - the poll is unlikely to be repeated tomorrow and I think its essential for the country to kee EdM in post for another couple of years.
Thanks for asking, they went well I think. Already some positive feedback sent out by the first one on Monday (ie. they liked me) but nothing definite yet. Fingers crossed!
Level pegging gives us a good indication the true margin of error (that is for a single pollster) is at least 4 if not 5 points. Coming into today, the five-poll average with YouGov was 4.6 which was very good since March 2012 (7, 4, 5, 3, 4) but the most you'd think it could change to was 4. (4, 5, 3, 4, 0) gives 3.2, for the record.
Thanks for asking, they went well I think. Already some positive feedback sent out by the first one on Monday (ie. they liked me) but nothing definite yet. Fingers crossed!
Roger,calm down lad,you have gone from this,posted earlier ;-)
The good news for Ed is that he seems to be getting some better press (ref Oborne) which probably means his backroom team have finally got off their backsides and started doing their jobs
If this becomes a trend as it might (these things have a habit of feeding on themselves) it would give Labour the chance to ditch their leader. I can't think of an acceptable excuse for him having gone AWOL for the entire summer allowing his opponents to be the only show in town. It's unforgivable
If this becomes a trend as it might (these things have a habit of feeding on themselves) it would give Labour the chance to ditch their leader.
Oh for god's sake, we covered this way back when the uber Blairites were busy with their first whisper campaign against little Ed.
The only way Little Ed is in danger is if he's well behind in the polls for a long period of time and doesn't look like he can turn it around. Even then we also all know that the Blairites are basically cowards when it comes to toppling leaders. They didn't have the balls to do it to Brown. Brother David was left clinging on to his banana and looking gormless when he had the chance.
Will continued polling like this put yet more pressure on little Ed? Will the uber Blairites rise yet again from the dead to start briefing against him if this keeps up? Yep. Unquestionably.
This poll is clearly an outlier. Nothing that I can think of could have caused such a significant change in opinion overnight. But it is an outlier that sets new parameters for the range of results. So if Labour is back to being 3% ahead on Friday that will no longer be seen as low but as consistent with the new bands. 5% may become the top of the band. And so on.
It will be interesting to see the economic competence/confidence figures behind this if they are available. There does seem little doubt that increasing economic confidence has been the main driver for the narrowing Labour leads.
This YouGov poll is hugely symbolic. It was YouGov, above all others, that engrained the notion that it was almost mathematically impossible for Labour to lose in 2015. That caused many pundits to bite their tongues, fearing they'd only be embarrassed later if they let rip on how dismal they thought Ed really was. But if Ed is obviously sinking they'll have no such inhibitions. These are dangerous times for Ed. He's at the mercy of a lot of things beyond his control.
Thanks for asking, they went well I think. Already some positive feedback sent out by the first one on Monday (ie. they liked me) but nothing definite yet. Fingers crossed!
I've felt for a while that Ed's Labour was a pig in a poke and other than the well known antipathy to the Conservatives I couldn't see any logical reason why Labour's vote was holding up.
After blowing his golden chance after the Syria vote all seemed hopeless. It became all too obvious that Labour had chosen a lemon.
Margin of error is the 95% confidence interval of the Standard Error of the Mean (if my stats are correct). So 2/3 of polls should be within half of the margin of error assumming a Normal distribution.
But more than statistical error is the systematic errors induced by assumptions such as how many who voted in 2010 return to their original party etc.
Nonetheless the gap does seem to be shrinking, and roger is right. It will put pressure on EdM. Every year the conference speech is billed as the most important one of his life. This year it may be true.
Level pegging gives us a good indication the true margin of error (that is for a single pollster) is at least 4 if not 5 points. Coming into today, the five-poll average with YouGov was 4.6 which was very good since March 2012 (7, 4, 5, 3, 4) but the most you'd think it could change to was 4. (4, 5, 3, 4, 0) gives 3.2, for the record.
Its no surprise that I agree with you about Ed Miliband making a huge mistake going AWOL over the summer, this certainly allowed the more negative aspects of his leadership to take a grip in the media. Ed Miliband basically took the whole summer recess off as Labour Leader and LotO, hardly a great statement for the level of his commitment to becoming our next PM. But even worse, Ed didn't even provide the Labour party with a team who could run a cohesive and targeted strategy to fill the vacuum he left.
If this becomes a trend as it might (these things have a habit of feeding on themselves) it would give Labour the chance to ditch their leader. I can't think of an acceptable excuse for him having gone AWOL for the entire summer allowing his opponents to be the only show in town. It's unforgivable
No worries m8 just wait for the bounce from Ed's conference speech - oh wait...
It's a great start to Ed's conference...
One of Labour’s rising stars has vented her frustration with the state of the party in a searing critique that makes no mention of Ed Miliband but implies that his leadership has a lack of vision.
Stella Creasy, a frontbencher whose campaign against payday lenders won widespread plaudits, says that public service reform must not only reflect the needs of vested interests but also customers.
In an article for the New Statesman, published as Labour prepares for its annual conference, she suggests that the party must urge public schools and hospitals to adapt to serve the interests of customers rather than staff and urges it to take a less reactionary line on immigration.
Hardly searing: this is standard Blairite stuff (at least based on the Times description). Alastair Campbell could easily have written as much in 1997.
Ed Miliband is surely going to give a truly outstanding speech this year. What else has he been working on this summer?
Ed should forget about the 'One Nation' stuff and the 'audacious raid on Tory territory' write-ups. Instead he should go hard, hard left - almost Stalinist. Banning foreign nationals from owning British media outlets might be a good one for him, or even banning private ownership of them altogether.
Ed Miliband is surely going to give a truly outstanding speech this year. What else has he been working on this summer?
Preventing WWIII, bringing the government to the first defeat on a matter of military action since Ethelred was Unready, transforming Labour into a mass-membership party with 5 million members, stamping out abuses in Labour's selection procedures, shaking up party funding, re-focusing the national debate away from GDP figures to cost-of-living issues, explaining the history of the nineteenth century Tory party to the TUC, searching high and low for an Etonian to run his communications strategy - you want an outstanding speech as well?
Scottish Tories facing post referendum pasting - from both UKIP and Lib Dems - my latest column on ConservativeHome
As I recall, the discussion of that poll on PB.com thought there might have been some confusion over the list question, and that the interviewees might have interpreted it as their 2nd preference, rather than how they'd vote.
This poll is clearly an outlier. Nothing that I can think of could have caused such a significant change in opinion overnight. But it is an outlier that sets new parameters for the range of results. So if Labour is back to being 3% ahead on Friday that will no longer be seen as low but as consistent with the new bands. 5% may become the top of the band. And so on.
It will be interesting to see the economic competence/confidence figures behind this if they are available. There does seem little doubt that increasing economic confidence has been the main driver for the narrowing Labour leads.
Margin of error is the 95% confidence interval of the Standard Error of the Mean (if my stats are correct). So 2/3 of polls should be within half of the margin of error assumming a Normal distribution.
But more than statistical error is the systematic errors induced by assumptions such as how many who voted in 2010 return to their original party etc.
Nonetheless the gap does seem to be shrinking, and roger is right. It will put pressure on EdM. Every year the conference speech is billed as the most important one of his life. This year it may be true.
Level pegging gives us a good indication the true margin of error (that is for a single pollster) is at least 4 if not 5 points. Coming into today, the five-poll average with YouGov was 4.6 which was very good since March 2012 (7, 4, 5, 3, 4) but the most you'd think it could change to was 4. (4, 5, 3, 4, 0) gives 3.2, for the record.
If it were merely a sampling error, it would conform to a normal distribution exactly (or it tends to one, I forget, but over a thousand sample population there's no difference). The thing we can say here is that the distinction between pollsters is not included; i.e. if a single error affected every poll from YouGov, it could not help explain why one poll could be 4 points below what must surely be YouGov's true value at the moment.
The other thing to remember is that if 95% are within the margin of error then 2.5% rather than 5% are any given side of it.
I think that it takes a few weeks for events to percolate through to the polls. We are possibly seeing the effect of the pasting in the press that Ed M got a fortnight ago.
This poll is clearly an outlier. Nothing that I can think of could have caused such a significant change in opinion overnight. But it is an outlier that sets new parameters for the range of results. So if Labour is back to being 3% ahead on Friday that will no longer be seen as low but as consistent with the new bands. 5% may become the top of the band. And so on.
It will be interesting to see the economic competence/confidence figures behind this if they are available. There does seem little doubt that increasing economic confidence has been the main driver for the narrowing Labour leads.
Scottish Tories facing post referendum pasting - from both UKIP and Lib Dems - my latest column on ConservativeHome
As I recall, the discussion of that poll on PB.com thought there might have been some confusion over the list question, and that the interviewees might have interpreted it as their 2nd preference, rather than how they'd vote.
Scottish tory surgers are admittedly easily confused and the scottish tory demographic and base is not know for it's sprightly youthfulness. Or indeed huge numbers.
If this becomes a trend as it might (these things have a habit of feeding on themselves) it would give Labour the chance to ditch their leader.
Oh for god's sake, we covered this way back when the uber Blairites were busy with their first whisper campaign against little Ed.
The only way Little Ed is in danger is if he's well behind in the polls for a long period of time and doesn't look like he can turn it around. Even then we also all know that the Blairites are basically cowards when it comes to toppling leaders. They didn't have the balls to do it to Brown. Brother David was left clinging on to his banana and looking gormless when he had the chance.
Will continued polling like this put yet more pressure on little Ed? Will the uber Blairites rise yet again from the dead to start briefing against him if this keeps up? Yep. Unquestionably.
So your prediction is for Lab to be divided and confused even while in Opposition let alone in Government. I'm sure that will work wonders in the GE.
Margin of error is the 95% confidence interval of the Standard Error of the Mean (if my stats are correct). So 2/3 of polls should be within half of the margin of error assumming a Normal distribution.
But more than statistical error is the systematic errors induced by assumptions such as how many who voted in 2010 return to their original party etc.
Nonetheless the gap does seem to be shrinking, and roger is right. It will put pressure on EdM. Every year the conference speech is billed as the most important one of his life. This year it may be true.
Level pegging gives us a good indication the true margin of error (that is for a single pollster) is at least 4 if not 5 points. Coming into today, the five-poll average with YouGov was 4.6 which was very good since March 2012 (7, 4, 5, 3, 4) but the most you'd think it could change to was 4. (4, 5, 3, 4, 0) gives 3.2, for the record.
We had a report from Corporeal the other day, telling us that the pollsters have little faith in the numbers they're producing. The models were designed for a two party system, and are failing for four parties.
Which chimes with Nate Silver: "the margins of error associated with multi-candidate races are assumed to be quite high, as there is evidence that such races are quite volatile."
This is all very confusing for an occasional reader such as I. I have read on here many times from most Labour leaning folk that there has been no trend down for Labour and its lead. A new breed of PTDs Polling Trend Deniers. I have also read about Lib Dem revivals.... amongst the parish council of Lower Sandalville. Also read many posts that it is nigh on impossible for Cameron to win. Who can a poor boy believe? Yet with 18 months before the GE Cameron now gets a second pollster showing him level with Labour.
Just imagine if this was after McSlime's book? Oh deep joy, we have that saintly event to look forward to. But Red Ed should still be safe. After all he was voted in by some of his MPs. Well a minority if we have to be factually correct dear people.
assuming no change in methodology, then the phenomenon would be a Normal distribution, I agree. It will be interesting what subsequent polls from other pollsters show..
Margin of error is the 95% confidence interval of the Standard Error of the Mean (if my stats are correct). So 2/3 of polls should be within half of the margin of error assumming a Normal distribution.
But more than statistical error is the systematic errors induced by assumptions such as how many who voted in 2010 return to their original party etc.
Nonetheless the gap does seem to be shrinking, and roger is right. It will put pressure on EdM. Every year the conference speech is billed as the most important one of his life. This year it may be true.
Level pegging gives us a good indication the true margin of error (that is for a single pollster) is at least 4 if not 5 points. Coming into today, the five-poll average with YouGov was 4.6 which was very good since March 2012 (7, 4, 5, 3, 4) but the most you'd think it could change to was 4. (4, 5, 3, 4, 0) gives 3.2, for the record.
If it were merely a sampling error, it would conform to a normal distribution exactly (or it tends to one, I forget, but over a thousand sample population there's no difference). The thing we can say here is that the distinction between pollsters is not included; i.e. if a single error affected every poll from YouGov, it could not help explain why one poll could be 4 points below what must surely be YouGov's true value at the moment.
The other thing to remember is that if 95% are within the margin of error then 2.5% rather than 5% are any given side of it.
If you look at TSE's YG vote shares, the bigger Labour drop happened in the spring. Over the summer it was much less pronounced. The summer was about morale more than anything. Most voters were too busy doing other stuff to take much notice of politicians.
If you look at TSE's YG vote shares, the bigger Labour drop happened in the spring. Over the summer it was much less pronounced. The summer was about morale more than anything. Most voters were too busy doing other stuff to take much notice of politicians.
If I weren't updating my iPad to ios7, I'd be able to say with 100% confidence, but I'm going off memory that February was a high point for Labour, and being in the 40% range was the norm, so they're not that much down from where they've been in the past year.
If this becomes a trend as it might (these things have a habit of feeding on themselves) it would give Labour the chance to ditch their leader.
Oh for god's sake, we covered this way back when the uber Blairites were busy with their first whisper campaign against little Ed.
The only way Little Ed is in danger is if he's well behind in the polls for a long period of time and doesn't look like he can turn it around. Even then we also all know that the Blairites are basically cowards when it comes to toppling leaders. They didn't have the balls to do it to Brown. Brother David was left clinging on to his banana and looking gormless when he had the chance.
Will continued polling like this put yet more pressure on little Ed? Will the uber Blairites rise yet again from the dead to start briefing against him if this keeps up? Yep. Unquestionably.
So your prediction is for Lab to be divided and confused even while in Opposition let alone in Government. I'm sure that will work wonders in the GE.
It's not a prediction it's the reality. The Brown Blair split never healed. PB tories might not have understand Falkirk (beyond foaming at the mouth about unions) but it was just yet more proof that the split was alive and well and capable of injecting pure poison directly into little Ed's shadow cabinet and the wider labour party.
The uber Blairites will not stop and will never be reconciled. Dan Hodges is the perfect expression of them. Nor are the Brownites very likely to stop hostilities either.
Ed Miliband is surely going to give a truly outstanding speech this year. What else has he been working on this summer?
I think we all learned a while back that Ed and speeches are not bosom buddies. He is not, was not and will never be close to inspiring or engaging.
He's a good speaker. Last year's conference speech was careful and thoughtful. I expect the same again this year.
The content was thoughtful, not sure about careful. The delivery was insipid, which - I suppose - is a step up from rank! Ed belongs in a policy unit. That's his natural home. He does not belong at the head of a major political party. But if he does reform Labour's union links he will have done Labour, the unions and the country a great service, and will deserve to be fondly remembered by those of us on the centre-left, whatever happens in May 2015.
This poll is clearly an outlier. Nothing that I can think of could have caused such a significant change in opinion overnight. But it is an outlier that sets new parameters for the range of results. So if Labour is back to being 3% ahead on Friday that will no longer be seen as low but as consistent with the new bands. 5% may become the top of the band. And so on.
It will be interesting to see the economic competence/confidence figures behind this if they are available. There does seem little doubt that increasing economic confidence has been the main driver for the narrowing Labour leads.
If you look at TSE's YG vote shares, the bigger Labour drop happened in the spring. Over the summer it was much less pronounced. The summer was about morale more than anything. Most voters were too busy doing other stuff to take much notice of politicians.
If I weren't updating my iPad to ios7, I'd be able to say with 100% confidence, but I'm going off memory that February was a high point for Labour, and being in the 40% range was the norm, so they're not that much down from where they've been in the past year.
That's my sense too. The story is much more of Tory advance than Labour decline. Hats off to Crosby. As I said during a thread earlier this week he's doing a good job.
Its interesting that Tom Watson now has form for heading back to the backbenches when the game is up for a Labour Leader. I suspect that he used the cover of that fight with Unite over the Falkirk selection as his chance to leave the sinking ship that is Ed Miliband's Leadership.
If you look at TSE's YG vote shares, the bigger Labour drop happened in the spring. Over the summer it was much less pronounced. The summer was about morale more than anything. Most voters were too busy doing other stuff to take much notice of politicians.
If I weren't updating my iPad to ios7, I'd be able to say with 100% confidence, but I'm going off memory that February was a high point for Labour, and being in the 40% range was the norm, so they're not that much down from where they've been in the past year.
That's my sense too. The story is much more of Tory advance than Labour decline. Hats off to Crosby. As I said during a thread earlier this week he's doing a good job.
Locally, yes. But since the start of the year, it's had two phases: both parties lose out to UKIP, then a Tory revival. So since the 2012 budget the story is mostly Labour fall.
"There are roughly as many seats in the House of Representatives as there are weeks until the next election. Time to get get cracking then on the 2016 election guide. Taking it from the top …"
Another good call in the offing then, made IIRC 2 years ago... Tories to win the PV in 2015. Which was made prior to me revisiting the L&N model, which seems to confirm it. 4.2% Tory lead forecast, on the latest data...
Looks like Ashcroft's marginals poll has been forgotten very quickly then. I wouldn't be too interested in a single YouGov poll that has Labour and the Tories level pegging. The more significant point is that since the start of the year the gap has closed. But the gap is still there.
Peter Oborne on fine form. He may like being a contrarian but the argument is powerful particularly on Syria.
UKIP simply must be taking a fair number of votes from previously Labour voters. There's no other explanation. They're probably taking a few from the LDs as well, especially in the south-west and south coast retirement areas.
Looks like Ashcroft's marginals poll has been forgotten very quickly then. I wouldn't be too interested in a single YouGov poll that has Labour and the Tories level pegging. The more significant point is that since the start of the year the gap has closed. But the gap is still there.
Peter Oborne on fine form. He may like being a contrarian but the argument is powerful particularly on Syria.
The problem with that analysis is that Miliband may be brave but so were the cavalry at the Charge of the Light brigade.
He has upset the Blairites by backstabbing his brother He has upset the hard left by opposing then supporting the cuts He has upset the unions with his reforms He has upset the Murdoch press He has upset the Americans with his opposition to Syria He has upset the City with talk of banker bonus taxes etc
He has gained a few short term headlines but has made a very long list of enemies. Come the election we may well find this is a very bad move.
Comments
Con, 31.65, 30.50, 31.19, 29.76, 31.00, 32.43, 32.89, 33.23
Lab, 42.60, 40.95, 40.43, 39.24, 39.05, 38.96, 38.58, 38.00
LD, 10.95, 11.40, 10.71, 10.00, 10.15, 10.22, 9.84, 9.23
UKIP, 9.05, 11.55, 11.62, 14.33, 13.10, 11.78, 11.84, 12.38
Lab Lead, 10.95, 10.45, 9.24, 9.48, 8.05, 6.52, 5.68, 4.77
The good news for Ed is that he seems to be getting some better press (ref Oborne) which probably means his backroom team have finally got off their backsides and started doing their jobs
to this ;-)
Looks highly likely that there will be crossover with YouGov before the end of the year.
Excellent share for the Tories.
Labour at the bottom end of their range.
Hung Parliament beckons. Same story as for the last three plus years. But most seats maybe moving from Labour to too close to call.
The only way Little Ed is in danger is if he's well behind in the polls for a long period of time and doesn't look like he can turn it around. Even then we also all know that the Blairites are basically cowards when it comes to toppling leaders. They didn't have the balls to do it to Brown. Brother David was left clinging on to his banana and looking gormless when he had the chance.
Will continued polling like this put yet more pressure on little Ed? Will the uber Blairites rise yet again from the dead to start briefing against him if this keeps up? Yep. Unquestionably.
It will be interesting to see the economic competence/confidence figures behind this if they are available. There does seem little doubt that increasing economic confidence has been the main driver for the narrowing Labour leads.
After blowing his golden chance after the Syria vote all seemed hopeless. It became all too obvious that Labour had chosen a lemon.
But more than statistical error is the systematic errors induced by assumptions such as how many who voted in 2010 return to their original party etc.
Nonetheless the gap does seem to be shrinking, and roger is right. It will put pressure on EdM. Every year the conference speech is billed as the most important one of his life. This year it may be true.
Hardly searing: this is standard Blairite stuff (at least based on the Times description). Alastair Campbell could easily have written as much in 1997.
Tories to win the PV in 2015.
Which was made prior to me revisiting the L&N model, which seems to confirm it.
4.2% Tory lead forecast, on the latest data...
Gromit is quite clever, and very helpful to Wallace.
The other thing to remember is that if 95% are within the margin of error then 2.5% rather than 5% are any given side of it.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1298002
Scottish tory surgers are admittedly easily confused and the scottish tory demographic and base is not know for it's sprightly youthfulness. Or indeed huge numbers.
Which chimes with Nate Silver:
"the margins of error associated with multi-candidate races are assumed to be quite high, as there is evidence that such races are quite volatile."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
His speech last year earned him a 20% boost in the YouGov leader ratings
Just imagine if this was after McSlime's book? Oh deep joy, we have that saintly event to look forward to. But Red Ed should still be safe. After all he was voted in by some of his MPs. Well a minority if we have to be factually correct dear people.
At the moment it's 53.47% to 46.53% but 10 seats haven't started counting 2PP yet and 7 of them are very safe Coalition areas:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
Joe Twyman @JoeTwyman 1m
Yes, we at @YouGov have Labour and Conservatives neck and neck, but one poll result does not make a trend (yet).
Next year will be different I am sure.
PB tories might not have understand Falkirk (beyond foaming at the mouth about unions) but it was just yet more proof that the split was alive and well and capable of injecting pure poison directly into little Ed's shadow cabinet and the wider labour party.
The uber Blairites will not stop and will never be reconciled. Dan Hodges is the perfect expression of them. Nor are the Brownites very likely to stop hostilities either.
AfD have hit 5% with INSA:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/18/uk-germany-election-merkel-idUKBRE98H0P120130918?irpc=932
Locally, yes. But since the start of the year, it's had two phases: both parties lose out to UKIP, then a Tory revival. So since the 2012 budget the story is mostly Labour fall.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/09/15/seat-of-the-week-warringah/
"There are roughly as many seats in the House of Representatives as there are weeks until the next election. Time to get get cracking then on the 2016 election guide. Taking it from the top …"
"Burkas cast a veil over us all – so ban them
Cultural values that oppress and diminish women have no place in our society "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10318018/Burkas-cast-a-veil-over-us-all-so-ban-them.html
Peter Oborne on fine form. He may like being a contrarian but the argument is powerful particularly on Syria.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10318072/Ed-Miliband-is-proving-himself-to-be-a-brave-and-adroit-leader.html
Averages:
Lab: 37.89%
Con: 33.11%
UKIP: 11.47%
LD: 10.00%
Lab lead: 4.78%
He has upset the Blairites by backstabbing his brother
He has upset the hard left by opposing then supporting the cuts
He has upset the unions with his reforms
He has upset the Murdoch press
He has upset the Americans with his opposition to Syria
He has upset the City with talk of banker bonus taxes etc
He has gained a few short term headlines but has made a very long list of enemies. Come the election we may well find this is a very bad move.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/conservative-party-membership-has-nearly-halved-throughout-david-camerons-premiership/
Keeping my fingers crossed that one or both of your interviews comes up trumps.