politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

Fifteen years ago Toby Young had a bet of £15,000 with Nigella Lawson that Boris Johnson would become Tory leader by 2018.

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Barnesian

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Richard_Nabavi said:

Barnesian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Expert on Sky says that it is possible that the CEO confided in Boris that the origin was Russia hence the tweet but he could not state it officially. He went on to say that other governments know the UK is correct through various intelligent agency clubs and multi lateral intelligence cooperation. He went on to say on the balance of probabiliies Russia is responsible

It is more than "the balance of probabilities".

The probability that it was the Russian State is opportunity x motive x track-record.

On the day after, my estimate was 99.9% probability that it was the Russian State i.e. way beyond reasonable doubt.

Since then more information has emerged about opportunity and motive.

Opportunity: The nerve agent may have come from Syria or been stolen and didn't need an expert to apply. So others could possibly have had the capability to do it.

Motive: Other motives such as his alleged knowledge of a chemical weapon operation in Syria and peculiar background with money involving Yulia's relations. So others could have had a motive to do it.

So my current estimate is that there is a 90% probability that the Russian State is responsible. It is not a balance of probabilities but it might not be quite beyond reasonable doubt. I'd still bet on it at say 8/1 on it being Russia. (I'm not taking bets).

Sorry, but that's bat-shit crazy. How on earth does your bonkers theory explain the Russian government's behaviour immediately after the attack, and indeed subsequently? Do you seriously think they'd regard it as a joke if rogue Syrian elements had access to Novichok, let alone were using it on Russian citizens and incidentally triggering worldwide diplomatic and probably economic measures against Russia?

My "bonkers theory" is the same as the PMs and my conclusion is that the Russian State is most probably responsible.

But just assume for a moment that the Russian State is not responsible. Immediately after the attack they wouldn't know who was responsible. They would vehemently reject the accusation and ask for evidence and samples.

I'm trying to be objective and have still come to the conclusion that it was the Russian State. But your emotional reaction "Bat-shit crazy" "Bonkers theory" suggests a hidden insecurity on your part about the affair and how it might pan out. Yes?