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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON, the LDs and SNP net gain of one each while LAB finish all square. This week’s local elections
Penicuik on Midlothian (Lab defence) First Preference Votes: SNP 1,663 (35% unchanged on last time), Con 1,433 (30% +4% on last time), Lab 1,310 (28% +2% on last time), Green 344 (7% +1% on last time) (No Lib Dem candidate this time -7%) SNP lead on the first count of 230 on a swing of 2% from SNP to Con Estimated Lib Dem split: 57% to Con, 29% to Lab, 14% to Green No candidate elected on first count, Green candidate eliminated Second count: Green Transfers Con 1,496 +36, Lab 1,414 +104, SNP 1,803 +140 No candidate elected on second count, Lab candidate eleminated Third count: Lab transfers Con 1,788 +319, SNP 2,237 +434 SNP GAIN from Labour on the third count
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Conservative peer Lord Naseby said it would have a major adverse effect on "the whole of British industry, and the British people as they face Brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43512378
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43521321
@OwenSmith_MP
Just been sacked by @jeremycorbyn for my long held views on the damage #Brexit will do to the Good Friday Agreement & the economy of the entire U.K. Those views are shared by Labour members & supporters and I will continue to speak up for them, and in the interest of our country.
On Cambridge Analytica, with so much jiggery pokery going on I'm surprised the timing has been Get search warrant -> announce grant of search warrant -> search, rather than get search warrant by private and secret application -> search (for which there is a perfectly good procedure - called an Anton Piller order when I were a lad).
Why do we care about the legal domicile of the parent company?
De La Rue PLC might be a British company, but its biggest shareholder, with 10% of the firm is Brandes who are a Southern California firm, with a customer base that is largely American. The largest shareholder of Gemalto with 8.5%, on the other hand, is the Quebec State pension fund. It's perfectly possible for a firm to have a UK domicile but be owned largely by American hedge funds, or an Italian listing, and to be owned by British pensioners.
Ahhh, but it's where the work's done, this is £500m leaving the British economy.
Whoever gets the contract, a chunk of it will be going overseas, even if all the printing happened in the UK. The wood will have come from Scandinavia, and therefore (in all likelihood) the paper will be made there. The RFID chip that records your identity? Well, it's going to come out of a semiconductor fabrication plant that's... not in the UK.
The actual printing process is going to be a fairly small part of the £500m.
And whoever prints them is going to need to have at least one UK printing press, because there is a requirement to do turnaround in a couple of hours for those with urgent needs.
So, in the case of Gemalto getting the contract, they will spend the same money (abroad) on paper and the RFID chip as De La Rue, and they will also need to have at least one printing press in the UK. And if De La Rue gets it, there's no guarantee that slow turnaround passports will not be printed in Malta.
This case is a simple one. De La Rue took the piss with their bid. The fact that their headquarters are in the UK does not excuse a price 20% higher. (Bear in mind that they will have the same paper, leather, plastic, ink and RFID costs as Gemalto. These firms prices should have been within 2-4% of each other. And De La Rue should have been cheaper given it already has the production lines in place, and has made the capital expenditure.) Gemalto should be given the contract to demonstrate that the British government does not accept substandard bids, even from British firms.
Of course she may have been indicating a 2:2 draw ....
And from a political point of view, dare Labour to suggest it should be given to DLR and then use it as an example of how willing they are to spend taxpayers money unnecessarily.
In Thurrock there was a bigger gain by Lab than Con, so I think Tories obsession with this is rather over egged.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/977274855564480512
In truth, something for everyone in the week's local by-election results and little to be gleaned at a national level.
I've never been at a count where the result has been tied - is there a single method to decide used everywhere ? I've heard the drawing of lots or the toss of a coin being used but I suppose it's up to the discretion of the returning officer.
It's a horrible way to lose.
The DJIA has lost in excess of 2,000 points since February 26th when it was 25,709. I make that close to correction territory (10%). The FTSE has lost 870 points since its high in January of 7792.6 so more than 10% given up and the index is where it was in August 2016 so all the "Trump Bump" erased.
Sterling still a few cents below the pre 23/6/16 level but against the Euro still 14 cents below the pre-Referendum numbers.
I think your politics are deliberately trying to downplay this outrageous attack on us to deflect from your dear leader, the marxist communist Corbyn with his communist office acting as Russia Today's mouth piece
Facts are important
The tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats is par for the course but what about some serious sanction on the oligarch friends of Putin ? At least Trump has tried but the EU and the UK have so far been more about words than action.
The time taken to do anything will allow some individuals to ensure the impact of any measures is limited at best and in truth more for domestic political consumption.
Frankly, Corbyn's biggest issue has not been what his official position is, now anyway, but that some have been praising what they think his position is, ie that he doubts the government conclusion, and we all know people get judged by who backs them, sometimes fairly, sometimes not. If he does doubt the conclusion, that is not his official stance, but makes his calls for caution as if there has been much beyond harsh words, rather silly.
And you try to play this down in the hope that it will all go away - it will not and it will go on for months
I was interested to see that Dominic Cummings published a document today which mentions the phenomenon of Kippery Lib Dems. It could have been written about you.
This is Jezzas response to the Salisbury attack. Not much difference is there?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/974385316025991168?s=19
"Labour is of course no supporter of the Putin regime, its conservative authoritarianism, abuse of human rights or political and economic corruption. And we pay tribute to Russia’s many campaigners for social justice and human rights, including for LGBT rights.
However, that does not mean we should resign ourselves to a “new cold war” of escalating arms spending, proxy conflicts across the globe and a McCarthyite intolerance of dissent."
And the football is boring
I don't think he is that stupid, frankly.
As they might say in inner London momentum circles - he wants to have his avocado toast and eat it.
For what it is worthy I don't think Corbyn is a communist.
It seems clear that he just wants to maintain a distinction between himself and the government, even when his official position is not that far from it at all, and he overdoes it unnecessarily.
The truth is May has played this for domestic political advantage and consumption. There is a lot more she and the EU (it has to be said) could have done in the immediate aftermath when (presumably) it was clear it was a Russian State-sponsored action.
The targeting of personal financial sanctions against the oligarch friends of Putin in the UK and especially London would have sent a far more powerful message than the expulsion of 23 diplomats.
It may yet happen but the more astute oligarchs will have had plenty of time to move financial resources elsewhere so the impact of any no doubt much-trumpeted and much-lauded response will be minimised.
The brutal truth is we have blustered and talked big but acted small so far.
The emotion is so strong that it is clearly not a normal rational evaluation but something quite deep. I suspect it is the fact that he is a clever politician and a strong leader that is leading his party to success that really freaks them out. They desperately thrash around trying to derail him, without success. It must be very frustrating.
And you'd probably be right, most of us will support a view that feels like it is one 'our side' should back, but might change our minds when we find out the other lot are behind it.
But if you call out someone's self identified label as wrong by their actions, what difference does that make from giving them a label of your choosing? In the reaction that is - a racist identifying as a non-racist called out by you as wrong will react the same as if they were called a racist.
Shouldn't really read your own publicity.
EDIT: If Rees-Mogg became Tory leader, I wouldn't attack him. I wouldn't need to. I'd just quietly smile.
I don't doubt the OPCW will nail the blame at Moscow's door and perhaps it will finally provide a credible sequence of events and timeline or will anything critical be swept under a national security carpet ? Let's see.
I'm also sceptical that other countries will entertain much more than verbal condemnation of Putin - we'll see but the time to mane a meaningful economic impact on Putin's wealthy allies has, I think, come and gone.
Feels like it would be simpler to accept the use of labels, while just not going overboard with entirely defining people by them, since its bloody inconvenient otherwise. Have you ever called someone a Brexiter, a label which to some has negative connotations and others positive ones, without knowing if they self identify as such?(as a helpful post the other day showed, there's a whole range of potential terms which, some serious some not, have different meanings, like neo-brexiter, brexitloon etc) It's not like calling some a Tory or LD, since at least people clearly belong to a party and therefore consent to such a label.
https://dominiccummings.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/vote-leave-campaign-pilot-memo-final.pdf
EU countries have indicated they will take action from next week.
This is a developing story
https://order-order.com/2018/03/23/diane-abbott-called-second-referendum-4-months-ago-didnt-get-sacked/
Go on then Corbyn.....
So if you ask "is this the start of a new Cold War?" The answer is almost certainly yes, because whatever we might want Russia seems to have already started it.
This is because we can trigger the underlying dispositional motivators that drive each psychographic audience
It feels like the words of an alien experimenting on human subjects.