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We could be more than four years away from the next general election and it is possible that neither Corbyn or Theresa May will be leading the parties by then. But if the two were to be the main party leaders next time, whenever that is, my money would be on the Conservatives.
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She's going to have to have some bloody good years of campaigning in the meantime. To be fair, she has upped her game recently. The real trick to perform though is delivering a Goldilocks Brexit - not too hard, not too soft. If she can do that - keeping trade from falling off a cliff whilst waving goodbye to Brussels as an overbearing force in voters' lives - she will have done what most voters want of her. They might even reward her for it.
Edit: 4th. Ugh.
She’s a VW Diesel engine in a hybrid world.
There is the other central problem of patriotism. Is this a man happy singing the national anthem? If he isn't at least somewhat patriotic about this island then he is out of step with most of its citizens. So you can forget trying to take a more 'nuanced' approach to events in Salisbury, he's never going to get a hearing.
Canvassing in Brexit voting northern tory marginal is showing rock solid data. Its normal to come across voters switching from one to another in a canvass, but this is pretty much no change. The odd one or two moving to Tories from last year, but probably offset elsewhere. Absolutley rock solid from the local and general election last year (the corbyn surge didnt show up the canvass last time). In fact i dont remember it been as stable from one year to the next as it is now.
Question to ponder, will those who dont vote Tory be motivated enough to come out in the local elections, and result in the usual mid term drubbing a party of government would expect through differential turnout?
(i understand that London is a very different situation)
Great quote from Red Box this morning:
A senior minister said: “No 10 swing between the arrogant aloofness of the court of Louis XIV and the doom of Hitler’s bunker.”
May will go after 2019. After Brexit the pressure for her bow out will be unbearable, and I now think it’s likely someone from the new generation will take over - so not Boris, Hammond, Davis - and not Rees-Mogg either.
On the left, it is important to understand that Unite has a stranglehold on the party, cemented with Jennie Formby winning the NEC general secretaryship. Today, there is an alliance between Unite and the Corbynistas — but, Unite actually want to win. Labour cannot do so with Jeremy Corbyn, and this will become clearer and clearer as we get closer to the next election. Jacinda Ardern in NZ shows just how dramatically a leadership change can change the weather.
Let's face it, neither is a particularly appetizing prospect. Put a gun to my head and I'd pick May over Corbyn, but with no enthusiasm.
The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3%, higher than for a year earlier (74.6%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.
There were 1.45 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of those in work plus those unemployed, that were unemployed) was 4.3%, down from 4.7% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.2%, lower than for a year earlier (21.6%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018
OTOH, wages have just edged above inflation.
In the UK Corbyn has already squeezed the Greens and LDs down about as far as they will go and the Tories were also on 44% with ICM yesterday
I appreciate Corbyn isn't helping himself on some issues, but Tories need to solve the conundrum. I've detected an element of scapegoating Nick Timothy. Whilst I enjoy a lynching as much as the next man, he was only part of the problem. If Tories ignore the vacuum at the heart of their offering, and don't move on from "he said this in 1983" (which casts Corbyn, wrongly, in the minds of many as a principled, consistent fighter against the Establishment rather than a deeply flawed potential PM) they are in real trouble.
The systemic problems of the U.K. economic remain - low productivity, a trade deficit, and a whole generation of under 45s who feel stiffed.
I’d happily trade some of those employment numbers for higher productivity and by extension higher wages.
Windies 135/5.
And what were his predictions going forward he made in the run up to leaving the political stage?
Move over Rogerdamus, there's a new kid after your crown....
The Nationals still comfortably won most seats and votes in NZ
The economy is very personal. For example, if you look at the basket of goods used to calculate inflation, hotels and restaurants are weighted more heavily than food. If you're poor, your rate of inflation != the headline rate.
In my lifetime there have been four recessions (I'd add in the .com bust which affected my sector very badly). Three of them had no negative effect on my personal circumstances, but '81 nearly finished me.
It's nearly always a golden age for some and ruination for others. It's just the proportions that vary.
I don't think overall percentage of the vote comparisons like this are very useful. Yes, Corbyn and May both got high vote shares in the context of recent history. But that was closely linked to UKIP collapse and continued Lib Dem and Green lack of traction - and that's only partially due to things Labour and the Tories have done. As such, it provides a poor basis with comparing with 20 years ago in the UK, or last year in NZ.
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/976395307033464832
And yet, still they are polling around 40%.
That is why NZ comparisons are pointless, Ardern had far bigger minor party votes to squeeze than Corbyn or any other Labour leader will have next time
He underestimated how Brexit proof he had made the economy.
The only time in the last 25 years the Tories have won a majority George Osborne’s long term economic plan was central to it.
There is a sizable group of people who simply see the Establishment round on Corbyn and feel he must have a point (the enemy of my enemy is my friend).
The language of the attacks comes across as "back in the USSR". Didn't resonate as you hoped it would in 2017, and won't in 2022 (or whenever) You've got to get him on the economy, on competence, on divided party.
I'm purely making an election strategy point here, not defending Corbyn himself on Russia etc.
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Corbyn did more, although I don't quite know what lifted is in this context Corbyn added about 2.5 Million votes, taking it from roughly 9.3M to 12.8M, which is more than a third of the vote increase on top!
i) These figures are tres disappointing
ii) The OBR prediction in the spring statement for the 2017/18 PSBR might be right given the general derision
"Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for November 2017 to January 2018 with those for a year earlier:
employees increased by 450,000 to 27.27 million (84.6% of all people in work)
self-employed people decreased by 22,000 to 4.78 million (14.8% of all people in work)
The annual increase in the number of people in employment (402,000) was mainly due to more people in full-time employment (377,000)."
Let’s see.
The NHS and Social care will be addressed over the next 12 months, the public sector wage freeze will be over, education and student fees are due to be addressed in a year's time following the review
And of course who will keep us safe will be a topic
I’m also fighting the Corbynite wing of the Tory party that think the Tories won in 2010/2015 in spite of Cameron/Osborne not because of them.
Apparently the boat terminated its protest
Farage is toxic
Yep, a 6% fall in Self Assessment income is not that healthy a sign.
"In January and February 2018, the government raised £24.6 billion in combined Self-assessed Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax receipts (£18.4 billion in January and £6.2 billion in February). In the same period in 2017, the
government raised £26.1 billion (£19.3 billion in January and £6.8 billion in February)."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/february2018
It was all lies that Halifax and Chamberlain were looking to no confidence Churchill in May/June 1940 wasn’t it?
I agree the key is differential turnout not vote switching. I think it is more likely that Tory voters stay at home (or search for UKIP!) because of Brexit than Labour voters stay at home because of Corbyn/Russia.
The other place we don't really see the jobs miracle is in government spending. We have much lower unemployment but no lower benefits, presumably because of the comparative generosity of inwork benefits.
https://twitter.com/BrexitWatch/status/865686580555640837?s=19
I can also see - though happy to be corrected - folk like TSE & Gardenwalker being happy to vote for a centrist Blairite Labour government over a frothing Tory (e.g. JRM). I'd certainly be happy to switch my allegiance in that case.
[All in all there are too many factions at work in both main parties for any of this to be more than a naval-gazing exercise.]
Never mind Singapore of the North Atlantic, it’s the Sick Man of Europe redux - except the pain is felt largely by the youngest, the poorest, and the non-metropolitan.
It would depend on the seat/Tory candidate.
If Tissue Price was the Tory candidate in Sheffield Hallam not only would I vote for him I’d be campaigning 24/7 for him.
I agree there are multiple scenarios and it is hard to predict. Perhaps in a toss-up situation like this the best strategy is to lay the favourite?
Can I ask why people camp in Calais to come to the UK when wages in France are so much better?