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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour candidates fear doorstep questions about Corbyn and the Kremlin
Labour members on the front line are worried about how voters will react to Jeremy Corbyn’s equivocal response to the attempted assassination in Salisbury of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal, and his daughter.
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https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/975335522150297600
Also if true, JM says he won’t say who told him as told in confidence.
But why? If you believe in bbc impartiality you should want to expose it?
And whether this fades very much depends on how events play out. If the murder investigation indicates a Russian link then actions will be required. If the other unexplained deaths are reinvestigated and find more links to the Putin regime then it will keep going. I don't think we can put the story to bed quite yet.
The public reaction will continue to be shaped by events. I think it acts to reinforce existing perceptions as to Corbyn and his attitudes - so may not shift votes in and of itself, but the situation could well alter turn out. Which does bring electoral consequences.
The internal fracture lines within the PLP have come to the fore again and it is always said that divided parties don't prosper. Last year's GE would seem to put a lie to that one - but never say never.
The fact that McDonnell has taken a different line to Corbyn is a clear indication that things are not as Corbyn would want them.
If he wants to regain the initiative, he should get rid of Milne. MIlne is too often the story these days. Not what you want from a backroom operator.
But not ridiculous for the other person to be bullshitting/wrong...
@oxfordsimon
It could with some extra new pieces last until May but I feel it would have to be some big news to keep it going all the way through April. Once you started to get into 2019 this would be a pretty distant memory for most people.
As for Milne I think he's done a brilliant job to be honest, love him or loathe him he seems to have had a very positive effect on Labour electorally.
In terms of his negative effect on the electorate I can't imagine there are many votes at all in Milne being there or not. Is there anyone on PB who would honestly change their vote to Labour if everything else stayed the same but Milne left?
Outside in the normal world where people aren't as interested in politics as us the effect of Milne would be even less than here, the vast majority of people don't know or care who Milne is.
https://twitter.com/daniel_sugarman/status/975382078987567104?s=21
How does it go.... if you can't discredit the message...
I wonder if Ant McPartlin's career is now over?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43453525
If it isn't, it should be.
(Just saying it has been altered is pointless, as many images are routinely post-processed before use. The question becomes what levels of processing are acceptable.)
At least Dec seems more sensible. And we may get to know if they are actually individuals rather than a gestalt entity.
If it turns out that this was not a Russian adventure Corbyn's stock will be sky high and as we've seen before he's a very lucky politician.
Edit: click show previous quotes to see the larger images.
I did also see mentioned that Gavin Williamson on the same background is show much further away from the Kremlin and it was a story presented as Williamson vs the Kremlin whereas the Corbyn story with that background was about whether he was strong enough against the Kremlin and shown much closer to the Kremlin.
It is all small stuff but in a week where the press had been ramping up that angle the BBC aiding in that goal (perhaps unwittingly) is not a good look.
Not exactly connected but they do seem to have done a few things with Corbyn, they have a background with him having a Trump style hat on and they also made a video of him as Quirinus Quirrell (a bad guy off Harry Potter, I had no idea either) have to wonder if they have had May as Trump in the background before.
Edit: click show previous quotes to see the larger images.
Putin worked for the KGB for 14 years. He worked in counter-intelligence and as a spy. He is deep within that world, and will see any Russians spying for other countries as beneath contempt. This attack, and the official messages coming out afterwards, is exactly in line with that: don't betray the motherland.
The implausible deniability also makes him appear stronger at home. And after our utter lack of response to Assad's use of chemical weapons in Syria, he guessed the west's reaction would be weak.
As a matter of interest, what do you think happened with Litvinenko?
This sort of rubbish will inspire the true believers; it'll make you all look a little (ahem) odd to the rest of the public.
Edit: I really shouldn't complain in a way though, there has definitely been an element of unfair media coverage boosting Corbyn.
"Look! They've put Corbyn in a suit! They're just making him look like any other politician! The bastards !!!"
There is something hugely profound in this but I won’t be able to quite work out what it is until I’ve had some coffee.
Buy you have answered your own original question. Litvinenk shows thate Putin is willing to use heinous weapons, outside the norms of international relations, to get at people he doesn't like. It doesn't matter if *you* think this guy was a non-entity; its what Putin thought of him and what Putin hoped to achieve.
He has motive, capability and form.
I'd also suggest your last line is a little odd ...
What’s your alternative theory? That it was smuggled from Syria in Jeremy’s hat?
Nothing will happen.
Fair comment, as far as i’m concerned, but I think it was personal rather than geopolitical.
And whilst some hear white noise, others swear they can hear the Ode to Joy....
As a distraction from the issue of whether Corbyn has consistently and instinctively supported those hostile to this country and its interests for over 30 years the argument about whether the exact shape of the hat has been cropped is absurd. The argument about whether the BBC is showing a bias and whether it should treat MPs this way is fractionally less so but the absolute failure to engage with the underlying problem is shameful. Many Labour MPs up to McDonnell have as Don points out but criticism of the messiah is still forbidden within Momentum, apparently.
The government has set out clearly that it believes Russia to be responsible. It really has no reason to lie, and indeed every reason to be careful in making such allegations.
And, Western allies have fallen in behind us.
The theory is entirely plausible and Putin of course has every motive.
Anyway, May has “under-reacted” so far, diplomatic expulsions make no real difference and this will all likely be forgotten in a month or so unless there is another development in the plot.
We ask our juries to convict not on the basis of absolute knowledge, but of beyond reasonable doubt. You are trying to get an acquittal on the basis of unreasonble doubt. Knock it off.
Labour will clearly do very well in May. 2014 was a relatively poor year for Miliband's Labour - 31% and 2% lead. Labour will far exceed that this year, particularly given London is a large voting area and is good for Corbyn.
Yeah, right.....
There were some very interesting letters in the Guardian about who can and cannot produce these poisons.
But good to see that society is alive and well in rural Devon, as a neighbour with a snow-plough attachment on the front of his JCB bale-shifter tries to carve through these same extravagent architectural drifts.
Later the army of 4x4s will be out, making sure their neighbours get topped up with vital supplies of bread, milk, eggs and their latest instalment of hat-gate in the Telegraph....
Corbyn’s no patriot, and McDonnell well understands the damage being done by this becoming apparent.
Yes. By that well known fantasist Craig Murray.
“Right now the turnout numbers are higher than we expected. We need to thank Great Britain for that because once again they did not consider the Russian mentality,” said the campaign chairman. “Once again we were subject to pressure at just the moment when we needed to mobilise.”...
if they ever got into power, then things would get really bonkers.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Assassinated_Russian_politicians
I find it interesting that turnout in the Russian election was only 60%. Once you get less than that, questions may be raised about strength of support.
The attempted Skripal hit - or more accurately, the necessary Western response, allows Putin to rally his “base”. And there’s one less ex-spy walking the streets which is perhaps convenient for Putin in other respects.
Given that these perceptions are gradual and incremental I don’t agree with the accepted wisdom here that this Novichok incident will have no impact. Anecdotal evidence is that it’s going down badly in Labours traditional working class constituencies.
It’s May we are “relying on”, not Boris.
And nobody is relying on Putin.
On #hatgate, I bumped into a 40 something Leicester lass (former clinic co-ordinator) yesterday wearing a similar hat to Jezza. I complemented her on it, but she didn't get either the #hatgate or Bolshevik reference. It is just about possible that the general public are missing out on all the furore and fun.
As for trusting the government, where to begin.
A surprising amount of people are still willing to give Corbyn a pass, or witter on about hats. But he has taken a dent at the margins.
A counterfactual of Nemtsov facing Putin would have been fascinating.
*Other opinions as to what happened are possible. If you are a Putin stooge.
The usual suspects on the Left support this, but the “evidence” to date is that amongst the wider public this has been a well deserved own goal by Corbyn.
https://www.webcams.travel/webcam/fullscreen/1428614761
Jezza's reaction to poison-gate is consistent with his mind-set, and with a variety of posh Guardian readers who have a superiority complex. Being above the Plebs with their superior reasoning and judgement also means they are a good barometer with what won't go well with the 'lower classes'.
But the bulk of the Labour party 'big beasts' seem to be rowing in a different direction to Jezza so any damage will be slight. Jezza being slightly barmy is now built in.
Corbyn's reaction to criticism is to calmly state his views again. McDonnell is much more of a conventional politician despite his image in some quarters and more willing to tack to the wind. There is a market for polite consistency, though, and I'm not convinced that any lasting effect will materialise.
Anti Western hate monger would have had us not go to Iraq such is his hate for Britain.
I realise it may not occur to some on PB but not everyone agrees our foreign policy is pro Britain. We would help ourselves by taking a more neutral stance on Israel Palestine. The idea that opposing the occupation and slaughter of the Palestinians is anti British or anti Western is ridiculous.
I can't think of anything more I would like to associate with Britain than sticking up for the beaten and the oppressed.
Also sticking up for the N. Irish Catholics is actually sticking up for our fellow countrymen. I realise this again is something of a minority view but until such a date as N. Ireland joins with Ireland and leaves the rest of us they are just as much our fellow countrymen as a protestant Englishman or an Atheist Scot.
Also not sure about this too close to Russia nonsense to be honest, Corbyn is the wrong kind of lefty to be a fan of the Soviet Union and he hasn't really given much hint of loving Putin either...
Now the Tories are ahead in most polls after the Russian affair and it is not impossible Labour could even lose seats to the Tories
If he does become PM it would likely be with the votes of Scottish MPs and confidence and supply from the SNP.
Putin has a very good motive.
He's telling any potential Russian rebels not to spy for a foreign nations. Wherever you run to, he'll hunt you down and kill you, and this may mean killing your family too. He's also sending a message to the voters that he'll stand up for this country whatever it takes. Very timely during election time.
Smart politics for him. And he assumes the rest of the world will make a ritual condemnation and then look away, like they did before - the Crimea is now effectively part of Russia, as are bits of the Ukraine.
Didn't the nascent Jezza-boys accuse Thatcher of starting a war to court popularity during the Falklands?