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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s Cold War, Jim: but not as we know it
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s Cold War, Jim: but not as we know it
Nutcases and tyrants have historically had an easy ride in their own day; their crimes frequently being attributed to the unauthorised actions of ‘evil advisors’ rather than being commissioned from the top. Occasionally, this is true (the Peasant’s Revolt against Richard II might be one example – though Richard was only 14 at the time, and still a duplicitous and cruel character), but generally it isn’t. Time and again, foreign analysts advise their own governments that these dictators are under pressure from hard-liners, only for it later to turn out, after the regime has fallen and the papers are released, that they were themselves the most extreme hard-liner.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43439066
As you may know, three people, including Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, were taken seriously ill in Salisbury last week after being poisoning by a nerve agent. How closely are you following this story? Net 'Closely:
18-24: -16
65+: +44
From what you have seen or heard about this event, do you think the Russian state were or were not responsible for the poisoning of Mr Skripal and his daughter? Net 'responsible':
18-24: +53
65+: +77
How well or badly do you think Theresa May has responded to the incident in Salisbury? Net 'well':
18-24: -7
65+: +61
How well or badly do you think Jeremy Corbyn has responded to the incident in Salisbury?
18-24: -3
65+: -46
Do you support or oppose the government taking these measures against Russia?
18-24: +13
65+: +64
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tisooibfcf/TimesResults_180315_RussiaSecurity_w.pdf
So expect Twitter to be neutral/against.....as in this vox pop:
https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/we-should-see-the-evidence-public-reacts-to-spy-poisoning?__twitter_impression=true
More interesting battleground is the 30 year olds. I pointed out just before the GE that I saw a worrying trend in May had managed to totally wipe out her massive lead among that age bracket.
Police have launched a murder investigation into the death of the Russian businessman Nikolai Glushkov after a pathologist concluded he died from compression to the neck, suggesting he may have been strangled by hand or ligature.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/police-launch-inquiry-over-death-of-nikolai-glushkov
The Russian chemist who revealed the existence of the novichok family of chemical agents to the world has dismissed the notion that a non-state actor could be behind the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England, earlier this month.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/russian-spy-poisoning-attack-novichok-chemist
https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/974639948002455553
https://www.thedailybeast.com/john-kelly-rex-tillerson-was-on-the-toilet-when-i-told-him-hed-be-getting-fired?via=twitter_page
Following closely (net) - VI:
Con: +43
Lab: +19
Russia responsible (Net)
Con: +73
Lab: +67
[Leader] responded well [among VI] - net:
May/Conservatives: +75
Corbyn/Labour: +20
When it comes to the other person - Tories have no time for Corbyn, Labour split on May
[Opponent Leader] responded well [among VI] - net
Corbyn/Conservatives: -61
May/Labour: -4
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/the-charge-sheet-against-tory-britain/
Probably about as close to a Labour endorsement as the Spectator can manage...
Even among 18-24 year olds, Corbyn's support is only 17%.
Is it in Britain's interest to defend Estonia ? Absolutely it is. To do otherwise would likely mean the beginning of the end for NATO, and the start of Russian redomination of Eastern Europe.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/uncategorized/5833153/sturgeon-backs-down/
The way to deal with it is to attack those aims, to seek to expose Russia’s weakness, to seek to deny it soft power. That is easily achievable but requires a collective will among western countries that is so far lacking, including in Britain, largely because Russia is seen as an irritant rather than an existential threat. This may be a new Cold War that only one side wishes to participate in.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/974755033031102470
Our response has to be framed in the context of what Putin hopes to achieve, and we must attempt to deny him that.
If we don't as a nation think that, and given that there is no known way of arranging for Estonia's no-fault expulsion from NATO, we should ourselves leave, now.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/974903523400970241?s=19
The West is mostly ignoring Russia by neither punishing it very much, nor according it respect. In the same token Russia's aims are neither advanced nor prevented. But it probably works domestically and every country's foreign policy is ultimately domestic.
That the current Russian ruling elite treat the Russian people with as much contempt as the Tsars just makes the position of Corbyn and Milne even more difficult to fathom.
And just what form would 'embracing Russia' have taken ?
I'm not convinced that the Russian sense of grievance has all that much to do with anything we did or didn't do.
He slipped - and corrected himself - but said “a lot of the work of my Embassy has been is to work to build links with the Russian people
Reading too much into a slip of the tongue?
You think proposing that we comply with our treaty obligations is "populist bullshit?" This will, anyway, be a US decision which we will slavishly follow, and the US is in a bit of a quandary about reneging on obligations under an existing, defensive treaty after branding the French "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" for thinking twice about signing up to an illegal, offensive one.
Brexit comes way after that...
The man is a vindictive little shit
Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain a few weeks before Germany overrun continental western Europe.
"The result was that when war did break out German preparations were far ahead of our own, and it was natural then to expect that the enemy would take advantage of his initial superiority to make an endeavour to overwhelm us and France before we had time to make good our deficiencies. Is it not a very extraordinary thing that no such attempt was made? Whatever may be the reason—whether it was that Hitler thought he might get away with what he had got without fighting for it, or whether it was that after all the preparations were not sufficiently complete—however, one thing is certain: he missed the bus."
Speech to the Central Council of the National Union of Conservative and Unionist Associations at Central Hall, Westminster (4 April 1940), quoted in "Confident of Victory," The Times (5 April 1940)
A hint for them: it isn't.
Anyone going to the world cup is aiding Putin in his aims, whether player, pundit or supporter. Disrupting the Word Cup would be a great way of embarrassing the sport-loving Putin. And there are plenty of reasons for it to be disrupted.
On a similar topic, the IOC's attitude to Russia and drugs has been totally shown up by the IPC for the paralympics. It's time the finances of top figures in FIFA and the IOC were looked into.
Still only nonsensical motives have been put forward as to why the already domestically popular Putin government would carry out an act guaranteed to harm its interests in the runup to a very prestigious international sporting event held on its territory, all to kill a spy that they had in prison themselves not so long ago.
Most of the evidence seems to rest on the testimony of an obvious fantasist defector (just check out his Amazon ebook ffs) and that Russia are ‘being sarcastic’.
However, the idea that the West is responsible for the political development of a country of 100+ million which possesses nuclear weapons is indicative of a deep-seated imperialist mind-set. The world isn't ours to put into order.
Let’s the whole post down.
"Moscow is handing cash to the Front National and others in order to exploit popular dissent against the European Union."
..
"The European far right and the Kremlin are united by their hostility to the EU. Since becoming president for the third time in 2012, Putin has been busy promoting his vision for a rival Eurasian Union."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/08/russia-europe-right-putin-front-national-eu
But, it won’t happen. It’s like the IOC banning Russia from the Winter Olympics and then letting all there athletes complete under OAFR under the Olympic flag, whilst all their fans and families fly the Russian flag anyway.
b) he'd pass it on to someone who would.
On top of that most of their wealth has been stolen by Putin and his cronies.
Financial sanctions are already preventing them accessing their potential mineral wealth.
Yes we should be concerned about how criminal the Russian state is, but if Italy had a new mussolini in power threatening the UK we wouldn't be all that worried.
I'm not defending Russia at all, just saying how crap they are compared to their image and historic power.
Just seen an advert for holiday lettings in Russia above the thread header.
Great WomblePutin for so long?Natural experiments are not ideal, but sometimes they're all we have, and the differing post-Soviet experiences of the Baltic States (NATO and EU members) with Georgia and Ukraine (invaded and territory annexed) is compelling.
I'm a convert to NATO membership. I support an increase in defence spending.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/financial-planning/dutch-style-collective-scheme-answer-uks-pension-crisis/
I shall hunker down and watch us get tonked by the Irish.
Unfortunately for Labour old Solzhenhitsyn doesn't cut it anymore. Get Jess Phillips in and it'll be time to open the bubbly
It's a shoe-in they would
EDIT oh, and it's lynchpin...no hyphen. Comrade.
*Although I have seen it convincingly argued that it wasn't particularly harsh by the standard of previous recent treaties to the loser.
I think we could have acted differently towards Russia and the results may have been different. Though I am thinking years gone by at the moment and in the last few years the Russians have generally chose confrontation over cooperation.
But of course, democracy should take precedence over 'security'. It is another part of the Liberty vs security question which comes up again and again in history.
https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/974719533029249030