Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main initial change that Ashcroft’s poll could produce
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main initial change that Ashcroft’s poll could produce is an easing of EdM’s position
For the latest polling and political betting news
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I thought you were arguing that gays should be satisfied with civil partnerships because marriage confers no extra legal rights.
If I have misunderstood your position then I apologise. But stand by my views in respect of people who do adopt that position.
When did Mr Honourable turn into Mr Sanctimonious?
What is the purpose son? 'Timmies-Top-Trumps' sounds like some 'Eighties kids programme so you must have some reason, no...?
Your obsession with those who post when Labour are doing badly* is only matched when you post fervantly about "good-news" polls for Labour. The fact that you do not see your confliction leads me to believe that there are not enough Latvian care-workers to admit your prescribed medication!
Grow-up, please....
* YouGov and other purveyors of "opinion"....
Euan Blair 25/1 with William Hill to become an MP by end of 2020; 100/1 ever to become PM.
Nice odds, even if the time-frame isn't.
'We're different from either of THEM!' was a key LD differentiator - now that's gone.
And you can certain that Clegg's continued enthusiasm for the (failed) EU and even the (catastrophically failed) Euro will be made over and over and over again.
'We know the job's only part done. We're sorry for the delay - those pesky LDs wouldn't allow us to make the changes (cuts) in public sector staff that we all KNOW are essential. Those people take YOUR taxes - and do little that's useful. Noticed local services collapsing despite 25% staffing cuts?
So, electorate, if you want the country to be sorted out by 2020, you'll have no more truck with LibDemmery (aka The Sandalistas) in your lifetime.'
As for the champagne form of socialism - well Notting Hill Marxist millionaire's sons may possibly have their place in society - just not anywhere near Downing St.
This is the polling event of the year.
@LordAshcroft poll confirms that a vote for #UKIP is a vote for Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and a Labour Govt!
"surely some of the sane left of centre voters have to be concerned that Labour may come to power in 2015 on the basis of 'we're not Tories' without so much of a shadow of an idea of how to run the country."
I'm sure they will but probably not as much as the country thought it in 2010 when they voted in the Tories presided over by two Bullingdon Boys with no experience other than trashing restaurants and only one of two members of the Shadow Cabinet with any ministerial experience at all.
http://www.fifedirect.org.uk/news/index.cfm?fuseaction=cllr.display&cllID=55702D3A-E2B7-0E3C-2D7837F10391F6C8
And, as I asked yesterday night, when have these marginal seat polls (sample around 400 in each!) ever proved accurate even the ones taken during the election campaign itself?
Polling in individual seats is notoriously problematic and there's every reason to suppose that 400 x 40 to create a "mega-poll" will yield similarly potentially flawed conclusions. How I wish my old chum, Robert Waller, was still posting here to place this poll in a proper context.
But I agree that it might relieve some of the pressure on Ed (not that he was in any great danger anyway).
Gove is devolving power to the individual schools. He has had, in the process, to pull certain powers back to the centre to ensure that the reforms an get through. If local education authorities were more willing to co-operate with the democratically elected government to get Parliament's wishes implemented then may be this would be necessary.
On the NHS piece you posted what Cameron actually said was "no more pointless reorganisations that aim for change but instead bring chaos". The reorganisation was very clear in its intention to give power back to the GPs as the primary caregivers (someone muddled up by the LD insistence on including hospitals). This was about real change, not "aiming for change". And the second part of the statement? I don't see any chaos going on. (And don't bother posting about A&E - that's about the old tricks on reporting times that the NHS used under Labour being called out).
Most people have limited direct experience of the NHS workings or the free schools (especially as the changes are so new). Their beliefs arise from what they are told. And these are often lies. ("90 days to save the NHS" "Don't let the Tories privatise the NHS" etc)
It may work, but they are still lies
Nothing should get in the way of the everything's fine in the blue garden narrative.
Remember the old rule - the more you think a poll is rubbish is in direct proportion to how much you dislike the findings.
His financing of serial mega-polls is a cry from the political wilderness against the injustice of exclusion and a rail against all his replacements.
As he wrote in The Mirror in July:
According to minister Michael Fallon, Crosby has made the Conservatives “focus on the issues that really matter to people”. Good for him.
But why pay someone to do that when they can read my polls – for free?
Ashcroft is a good man but he shares with Vince Cable an exaggerated sense of his self worth and importance.
Additionally he is quite a marmite politician. He doesn't come across particularly well on TV, he sometimes appears to suggest he is smarter than the average bear, etc. But he has done a good job of implementing change.
The alleged unpopularity of the policy (don't recall any specific polling) is more down to lies told by its opponents.
If the lies are believed, that tells us something - mainly Gove 'must do better'......
There is a magic money tree as far as enough of our nation is concerned...
Unreal but hey there you go, people thought for years Brown was a good chancellor when actually he was a wanton spender and spinner after the first term wore off.
Are you still capable of answering my point about the difficulties of individual constituency polling and their aggregation? If so, now's your chance.
Bedraggled disreputable pol (local variety, like you and 30 years 'experience') that I am, ALL mid-term polls are taken lightly, but some, like this one are taken very lightly indeed.
But, since you ask, I'm more confident at the moment about winning all my GE bets with tim, than at almost any timne since they were first agreed.
It's simple and irrefutable - anything that's nationalised and run by politicians is worse than competing private firms providing the same service.
Anywhere, any time in history.
The problem with UK education (2010) was that the basic purpose of educating anyone - to make them employable in the society of the time - had been completely forgotten. Hence we import millions of educated-abroad people to work at everything from brain surgery to sprout picking.
Meanwhile, we, ourselves, educate the elite from around the world - in our PRIVATE, fee-paying (often boarding) schools.
Which indicates what should be the model for the education of ALL children in the UK from 2015, rather than the utterly discredited Soviet-era education and examination systems we had had imposed on our children by 2010.
The suggestion that a higher percentage of candidates should get the top grades in 2010 a.d. than in 1910 (or even 2010 BC!) is absurd: human evolution of IQ simply does not work that quickly.
They just don't get it...very funny
Air traffic control, for instance.
But Mandy sold that one...
I suspect the polls have a lot of changes to go through before we have any real sense of what will happen in 2015. I also seriously doubt how many people would actually vote for Miliband even if the vote was next week.
Air traffic control, whether provided directly or by contract, is unnecessary intrusion by the state into the lives of its citizens.
A true libertarian party would abolish it altogether.
The State should get out of controlling airport capacity, just as in C19th Britain: the company has the right to buy and build whatever it likes - paying compensation to those affected.
A recent report said that LHR3 would provide sufficient capacity for LHR until 2040.
ROTFLMAO - if LHR3 opened tomorrow it would be running at capacity by next weekend.
London needs a 10-12 runway capacity hub airport - with 6 runways open now. That would drive down landing fees, lead to the abolition of the hated APD and attract passengers and revenue from the whole world, with the new airport Europe's 'super-hub'.
Of course, Heathrow cannot expand to anything like the capacity required - a problem stemming back to the central planners who chose the site as 'London airport' in 1947 (or so0.
Yet another example of central planning screwing up - had each London-area airdrome been privatised and allowed to expand and compete with its rivals on a 'do what you like - we'll back your right to buy land and build on it' we'd not be in our current capacity-strangled mess, where demand is perhaps 3-4x supply and guaranteed landing-slots are worth more than the airlines leasing (owning?) them.
http://www.landtagswahl2013.bayern.de/index.html
@SimonStClaire "Last word on the subject – I doubt we shall ever find one, I doubt such an animal exists."
Sir Gus O'Donnell.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-226.htm
1) Which company or companies did the fieldwork (he must have subcontracted out surely)?
2) Where did he get the sample from? For a constituency like Gloucester it would be reasonably easy to just pick numbers at random out of the white pages if you wanted but in Brighton how do you make sure you just get people in Kemptown and not in Pavilion?
3) Were all the constituencies in field for the whole field period or was it that they did 5 a week say?
Some comments on the data:
- Overall this is great news for Labour as they would gain all 32 Lab/Con seats + Watford and Camborne from 3rd place.
- The UKIP figures tend to fit with the local elections e.g. their best score in the Lab/Con marginals is in Lincoln
- If you look at the weighting in the Lab/Con file people voting Labour in 2010 are weighted down slightly while people voting Labour now are weighted up slightly. This suggests that a lot of the swing to Labour is from younger age groups who are massively weighted up (due to mobile only households)
- It is noticeable that there doesn't seem to be a question asking if people are actually eligible to vote. Labour's biggest group in the Lab/Con marginals are 25-34 but some of these may not in fact be eligible especially with IER coming in next year
-Conservatives are still leading amongst pensioners in the Lab/Con marginals, which gives them some comfort. While not as big as the swing from the Conservatives, UKIP are gaining some pensioner votes from Labour.
So overall very good for Labour but some hope for Con due to their resilience amongst pensioners and the potential that younger groups may be less fixed in their allegiances (e.g. the Cleggasm) and less likely to be registered under the new system.
The benefits to Tories are self-evident. It prevents οἱ πολλοί from invading personal space when you are forced to travel by public transport; it stops those to whom one has not been formally introduced from addressing you by your first name; and it deters all other forms of over-familiarity in subordinates.
Where toxicity becomes dangerous is when reaction to it becomes excessive. It is certainly better to share a cab with a Tory than walk home in the rain; better still to shake a Tory's hand than lose an important contract; and better by far to vote for the Tories than condemn one's country to the folly and misrule of more Labour mismanagement.
As always it is the dose which makes the poison.
What we do know is that the Tories could not gain an overall majority in 2010 even though Labour got its second worst result since the war. I understand that Tories and Labour haters on here blame the BBC, the unions, the EU, the metropolitan elite, stupid voters, immigrants, welfare recipients, stamp collectors, bell ringers, popcorn, owls and just about anyone and anything else for this, but it may be worth just taking a little peek at the Tory party from the outside in to see what so many voters find so repellent.
That is not going to hack it boys.. you must try harder..
Try a policy or two..
An element of coercion, through compulsory purchase, is likely to be necessary for big infrastructure developments to happen.
You always quote the "no pointless reorganisations" without quoting the second part of the statement.
You are a liar.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
CSU 49%, SPD 20.5%, FW 8.5%, GRÜ 8.5%, FDP 3%, Others 10.5%
There is a difference between that and deliberating telling an untruth.
edit: and by the way, PCTs are terrible. I've known someone be sent to life-threatening surgery, against the preferences of the patient and the recommendation of their specialist, because the PCT decided they didn't want to spend any money from their pharmacy budget on NPS products.
Pay compensation at 110-120% of land's value (as in France) and people will queue up to have their land developed - see housing as an example.
Pay 80-100% and you'll make NIMBYs of us all - or BANANAs as they're now called.
edit: my point is why would a rational person negotiate a coalition agreement with a partner if they had no intention of keeping to it at the time they signed.
http://www.br.de/wahl/landtagswahl-bayern-2013-aktuell-wahltag-100.html
Pay compensation at 110-120% of land's value (as in France) and people will queue up to have their land developed - see housing as an example.
Pay 80-100% and you'll make NIMBYs of us all - or BANANAs as they're now called.
I did - you could have been clearer: I assume you meant this "the company has the right to buy and build whatever it likes - paying compensation to those affected"
So you are trampling over property rights, favouring one private individual over another, with no democratic accountability.
http://www.rtl.de/cms/news/rtl-aktuell/landtagswahl-bayern-alle-zahlen-324b9-51ca-58-1630968.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10309785/Tory-MP-calls-for-EU-referendum-now-saying-public-do-not-trust-Cameron.html
Theodore Dalrymple writes in the Telegraph about the niqab:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/10308793/Civilised-society-must-not-draw-a-veil-over-the-niqab.html
"Liberal Democrats have voted to support the building of a new generation of nuclear power plants - a policy U-turn which marks an important victory for the Party's leadership."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24100833
http://www.br-online.de/landtagswahl/zahlen.shtml
BBC - “Liberal Democrats have voted to support the building of a new generation of nuclear power plants - a policy U-turn which marks an important victory for the Party's leadership.”
“Ed Davey told delegates nuclear was a 'genuinely low carbon source of electricity'”
It seems Nick Clegg after only a short time in power has become a pragmatist and excepted ‘wind-farms’ and other such quackery will never fulfil the UK’s long term energy needs.
Since LDs are CND supporters, someone must have explained to them that modern nuclear power stations are designed to optimise power production and minimise down-time, thus producing power cheaper than a current (1970's) generation nuclear station.
Plutonium can be 'burned' in a specially-designed reactor, but we no longer need large quantities for weapons production (thank Goodness)
Just as the motorways (designed in the 1950's) were planned to allow for the rapid transport of our Armed forces in time of war, with the public being allowed to use them in between times. hence the M1 stopping at Catterick (aka Leeds).
[Check the rail and motorway access to the principle naval, air and army bases of 1960 to see the link. Rail was deemed too vulnerable to a few saboteurs after the Resistance/SOE's efforts of WW2.]
"Mr Afriyie told the Conservative Renewal conference: "I believe the British people should have a referendum on EU membership this side of the election"
That's a real offer there.
Afriyie challenge in June 2014? :-)