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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The best polling news for the Lib Dems since the tuition fe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The best polling news for the Lib Dems since the tuition fees fiasco of late 2010
One of the pieces of polling that’s come out today which has been a surprise is this from Ipsos-MORI. The question was delightfully simple and economical with words “If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it be?”
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Have folk done this already?
http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Portrait-of-Political-Britain/
http://populuslive.spss-asp.com/ASP/P002786/A Portrait of Political Britain.pdf
LD supporters neck and neck between Tory and Labour, a big change from 2010
- UKIP supporters still lean Tory over Labour by more than 2:1 and that 37% is the biggest number on the board. If the result in 2015 (or any individual constituency) is looking close, there are votes to be squeezed.
- Current Lib Dems level pegging between Con and Lab. Admittedly, lots of Lab-leaning LDs went some time ago, which is presumably a part of the 30% Lab-LD potential (some ex-LDs will be irreconcilable but far from all - and 30% of 40% is 12%: a sizable chunk of the electorate).
- Con supporters tend LD over UKIP - though presumably again, this is in no small part due to the UKIP-inclined ones currently being in the purple column.
- Con lead Lab overall. This will in part be because Labour has a poll lead but only in part. When one party's miles ahead, the LDs usually tend that way too.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief election rival sparked a storm of derision and online ridicule on Thursday by allowing himself to be photographed making the vulgar middle-finger gesture."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10305783/Angela-Merkel-rival-causes-storm-with-middle-finger-photo.html
While we are busy tweeting, texting and spending, the world is drifting towards disaster, believes Jonathan Franzen, whose despair at our insatiable technoconsumerism echoes the apocalyptic essays of the satirist Karl Kraus – 'the Great Hater'"
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/sep/13/jonathan-franzen-wrong-modern-world
"We have abandoned our children to the internet
Young people are addicted to a virtual world that is designed to keep them hooked with little care for collateral damage":
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/13/abandoned-children-internet-addicted-virtual-damage
I think this would be better in smelly-vision. I'd be a brioche, or possibly cinnamon toast. :-)
Even better news than this polling? Triumph for Clegg and his ostrich faction of spinners indeed.
"Governments are more effective at standing in the way of economic growth than they are at creating it"
and, all of the groups think
"We need leaders who are prepared to listen and to do what people really want"
http://populuslive.spss-asp.com/ASP/P002786/A Portrait of Political Britain.pdf
Best is a relative term, clearly. No-one's saying they're in a geniuinely good position, but that doesn't prevent some positive indications still being note worthy.
Count me as one surprised the UKIP supporters voting Con figure is not higher.
I'm less surprised more Lab voters are not willing to consider any other party. LDs are not as appealing an alternative thesedays
According to PBTories that means UKIP gets more support from Labour voters.
2013: Con 25%, Lab 29%, LD 14%, UKIP 23%.
UKPR avg: Con 32% (+7), Lab 38% (+9), LD 11 (-3)%.
The current preferences are ex post. Many Labour leaners have left the LD's and many Tories have found a new home amongst kippers.
Just as you think the tories and Cameron turning it round from the omnishambles Budget of last year,then we have the bright idea of charging 5p for plastic bags - idiots.
Labours charge against this government of the cost of living going up and not helping,as legs and putting 5p on plastic bags will show more evidence of that,it might not be a lot of money for people on here but it's how it looks to the ordinary folk out there.
As long as he keeps quiet about the "infiltration" he will be fine.
@patrickwintour: Always admire a reporter like @ShippersUnbound that messes up the news grid of a party conference. Plastic bags levy was intended for later
Who knows if Bjorn Lomborg was right but his point about every plastic bag in the world fitting into a dump the size of a table tennis table (perhaps football pitch, or two) holds still.
Talk about regressive taxes this is the most pointless of them all and where's the money going to go? At least M&S have relented to the extent that they give you teeny ones for free if you need one.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24034029
Danny Alexander: The Tories couldn't have done it without us
"Evidence from members of the Carrier Bag Consortium, who make and supply bin liners and refuse sacks, shows a plastic bag tax introduced in Ireland resulted in an increase of 300 to 500 per cent in the sale of plastic refuse bags and bin liners. They contain much more plastic than carrier bags.
Plastic bag taxes perpetuate the myth that carrier bags are a major environmental evil. Political emphasis should be on encouraging consumers to change their habits in more meaningful ways, for example by helping households reduce food waste."
http://www.brc.org.uk/brc_news_detail.asp?id=1109&kCat=&kData=263&sCat=Retail
How many cubic metres of plastic bags does that 70-odd percent decrease constitute tim?
Plus think about it - plastic bags are super useful and each one is probably used five times (they are in my household) before they finally bite the dust, making them one of the most effective re-usable resources around.
Not like you to fall for this one.
lib dems are saying - time for pay rises and tories saying - 5p on plastic bags when the cost of living going up.
Is Lynton Crosby on holiday ?
One point which I don't think anyone has commented on (apologies if someone has and I missed it) is the high number of Labour and LD supporters who say they'd vote for 'some other' party (16% and 20% respectively) - presumably the Greens, although this isn't clear. That might indicate some softness in support for both Labour and LibDems.
Equally interesting is the high figure for UKIP supporters saying the same. Presumably they don't mean the Greens.
One caveat, though: these are subsets of smallish samples, so we shouldn't over-analyse them.
It's a great question, all the same. Let's hope Ipsos_MORI start asking it regularly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy5T6s25XK4
Con vs Lab 10%
Con vs LD 14%
Con vs UKIP 12%
Lab vs LD 14%
Lab vs UKIP 3%
UKIP vs LD 2%
Now this makes Mike Smithson's assertion that this is good polling news for the Libdems ) somewhat surprising (granted it suggests that 22% of the electorate are open to being wooed by the Libdems) but liberal leaning voters are equally the largest group of potential switchers for both the Tories and Labour. Therefore one can expect both to tailor there message not to deter liberals and hopefully from their perspective squeeze as many wavering Lib Dem voters as possible. Libdems will likely find themselves fighting on two fronts.
The good news for UKIP is that this will likely lead the Tory leadership to want to look leftward rather than right given there is up to one quarter of the vote up for grabs leftward whereas there is only half that share up for grabs on the right. Little wonder Crosby's strategy seems to be to pretend UKIP do not exist. Given the relatively small numbers of Lab and LD voters who'd consider UKIP and vice versa it leaves UKIP with a clear idea what their target should be.
The complication for the Tories is they are vulnerable on their right flank and unless they are very successful attracting wavering left of centre voters then there is a possibility that losses to UKIP on the right could counteract any gains made on the left. Like the Libdems they've managedto position themselves so that they are fighting on both fronts
The Libdems look like they have the most difficult job in fighting off both the Tories and Labour.
In any case, what you believe in is the god-given right of people to come here and subsequently live at our expense.
I'm a little confused how these are 'mistakes'; they would require a fundamentally different strategy of opposition than that which has chosen. It's the difference between merely choosing the less than best building materials and choosing a building site made of lava, if my analogy makes any sense. - they can't have used the first one because their whole argument has been how mean the Tories have been cutting so much, so to use it would be to say the Tories were doing the right thing (even if unintentionally due to incompetence)
And they can't have used the second one, because again their argument has been the evil Tories want to slash welfare spending because they hate poor people (that is how it has clearly been framed, even if of course more nuance is generally used for official opposition), so to acknowledge the benefits bill is rising would undercut their own argument by suggesting the reforms are not actually that bad.
That's why I'm confused if you are serious or not - you seem to be suggesting Labour's biggest two mistakes has been being Labour for 3 years. While some Tories on here might regard that as a big mistake in itself, I'm sure that's not what you meant and I'm just being a bit clueless?
They didn't say they would nationalise the banks, the railways, perhaps Aldi and Lidl also, which again would at least have set out their stall in a way that is comprehensible. They might also have tapped into the zeitgeist.
Instead all they did was subscribe to austerity but continue to whine that "it's not fair".
Optimistic Contentment = 100%
Main Segment = Optimistic Contentment
Confident & comfortable, they are more highly educated, of a higher social grade & have higher incomes than the other groups. They are patient, prudent & tolerant but also think Britain is a soft touch. They believe people can get on if they work hard & that too much is expected from government
They're an exception, the general rule remains.
De-poshing is the most important thing they didn't do and still haven't done.
Other than that it would be their shocking lack of discipline although how you deal effectively with the solipsistic backbench wankers in the Conservative Party is anyone's guess.
Other parties will struggle to get their words in edgewise in turn.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/338227/WATCH-Boris-Johnson-tells-opponent-to-get-stuffed
At some point there are legitimate questions to ask. Can they really not find a bright as a button party member or MP or worker from Worksop and with great fanfare promote them even if they laugh at him (better still it would be a her) at the Carlton that evening?
That's not getting rattled. Any sane person who meets Andrew Dismore (as I have) has to fight back the siren temptations of physical violence within minutes. Just telling him to get stuffed is an admirably and enviably laid-back mild reaction.
I just wonder if Nick Clegg is actually a Tory sleeper? He's had an interesting career. Worked at the FT, speaks 5 languages, worked for a former (Tory) home secretary in Europe. Been involved in negotiating deals with the Russians and the Chinese. Now I'm not saying MI5/6 would have recruited him but you can see why they might have been interested. And they are of course rumoured to lean politically to the right. Having seen Labour infiltrated by neocon Blair (mission accomplished) the main 'threat' to the state - that usual rabble of peacenicks, beardies, socialists, ultra greens were likely to move to the Lib Dems and so it proved. So agent Clegg was sent in (he didn't join the party till he was 30). He works his way up and eventually becomes leader. So with the Tories still unable to win an election here was the man who could answer their prayers.
Fanciful stuff I know. But I am starting to wonder.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/429202/Euro-immigrants-in-UK-no-different-to-Britons-retiring-to-Spain-claims-Lib-Dem-minister
This alone should ensure a extra thousand comments ;-)
Re. the omnishambles etc., mid-term Govts invariably get a mauling. It's part of the process. With 20 months to go and the economy starting to roar the Conservatives are in a good position. Mind you, the point about the backbenchers below is a good one. Discipline to secure their victory will be important.
http://disinfo.com/2013/05/how-to-make-tin-foil-hats-for-beginners/
Hope that helps
That article is the closest I ever got liking Jeremy Browne. I have a friend who really, really fancies him. Worries me no end.
The omnishambles budget was really a result of the Chancellor, like most Cameroons and, indeed, Blairites in New Labour, having neither empathy with nor even knowledge of his own party's supporters. Thus, he p'd them off royally with, as you rightly say, minor decisions.
I wrote an article back in the late 80's entitled 'Lasers in the Jungle,' taken from that song, about the birth of the internet in Africa. If I'd stuck out there with that world I'd be rich now. Or dead.