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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum
We get lots of talk about Labour having to be mindful that a significant part of its voters at the last election also voted Leave in the referendum.
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We'll see.......
On the other hand, Labour have a much bigger issue as the Remainers seemed to be under the illusion that Corbyn was going to abandon Brexit and the Leavers thought he promised the same as May. So there are definitely going to be some very disenchanted Labour voters as neither are going to get what they (thought) they were promised.
The main risk to the Tories is selling out to the EU to the extent that the Leave voters feel betrayed. They will either switch back to UKIP or, much more likely, will not turn out.
You sound like the many on here who were totally convinced that the UKIP vote would almost all got to CON last June 8th. It didn't
Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit plan hasn't gone down well in Labour's heartlands
Shoppers in Barnsley market in South Yorkshire didn’t warm to his conversion to “a customs union” with the EU after Brexit...
“If this is what he’s trying to do, it’s opportunistic rather than principled. He may be principled in many ways, but he’s trying to take government by dividing the Tory party and splitting their vote. It’s fairly cynical.”
Veteran Labour MP Frank Field greeted the Corbyn conversion on the road to Brussels as “an impossible dream” and “meaningless”, warning it could cost swathes of seats in Brexit-supporting Labour constituencies where voters feel betrayed.
Judging by the mood in Barnsley, he touches on a raw political nerve.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-plan-hasnt-12093689
https://twitter.com/kevcunningham
Lots of interesting stuff on Labour leavers - minor health warning, Dr Cunningham used to work for Labour.
What the Tories have to worry about with those people is what happens if Brexit bollockses up the economy once it actually happens; That's where moderate conservatives expecting economic competence would turn on them, especially if Labour got over its Corbyn phase or the LibDems perked up. But TMay has her hands full just making it to the end of the negotiation without her party stringing her up from a lamppost, so she doesn't have the luxury of worrying about how Brexit actually works in practice.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/businessman-sues-google-to-have-his-crime-forgotten-srdr8d0q8
Mays BREXIT vagueness is no longer an option and I wonder whether this cranking up of Labour's approach could force the Tories hands (which they dont want) and possibly hasten the demise of May as the Tory "agree to disagree" approach breaks down
I think it mildly absurd to argue that Corbyn's position is weaker, and May's stronger, than before last year's election. This is a battle of the unpalatables,so you're going to find plenty of disobliging quotes about either, without looking too hard.
Without the emergence of a better alternative, it's the relative movement that will count.
https://slate.com/culture/2018/02/who-should-win-the-oscar-for-best-original-score.html?via=homepage_taps_bottom
Speaking of bull shit, I see that Trump has just said that if he had been at the Florida school he would, armed or not, have charged in to confront the gunman.
*) Corbyn.
*) I have a rather feisty, independent-minded Conservative MP.
*) Cable is leading the Lib Dems down the plughole of irrelevance.
Everything else about the current Conservative Party is a massive turn-off. If there was an independent candidate I liked, they'd get my vote.
Brexit has consumed the Conservative Party. It's the only thing they think and talk about, meaning the other problems that face the country are not getting dealt with. It is full of people I detest, such as JRM, people I laugh at, such as Boris, and incompetents, such as May. People I rate, such as Rory Stewart, are invisible.
There is no positive reason for me to vote Conservative, only negative ones away from the others.
This is not a healthy state for the party to be in. And yes, I can see people who rate the EU higher than I do swinging over to Labour. Corbyn may be a bastard (and I think he is), but at least he has a vision for the country and is not obsessed with the EU ...
As I suspected, the armed police officer in the Florida School has an interesting defence:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43202800
His attorney, Joseph DiRuzzo, said his client believed the gunfire was coming from outside the school.
He followed his training by taking cover and prompting a lockdown, the lawyer said.
Might be true, or might be b/s. But before he can be called a 'coward', you have to look at what he was trained to do in those circumstances.
While direct switchers to Corbyn's Labour would have double value, switchers to LD, Green, DNV or UKIP all help reduce the majority.
But who of the pretenders is up to the challenge?
I think Boris would manage to engage with Remainers, Hunt might find it trickier as he has to worry about his Brexit flank.
Gove would struggle to get a fair hearing I suspect and I doubt JRM would manage- but he is so eccentric it's hard to know!
Fevered reactions to the customs union move have obscured the fact that Corbyn delivered the most explicitly pro-Brexit speech of his leadership of the party. Its central premise was that the hazards of leaving the EU have been exaggerated, and that the only real risk comes from the whole thing being done by wicked Tories.
Corbyn’s view is that, quite aside from a democratic duty to honour the referendum result, Brexit is a sensible, indeed desirable goal, just as long as it is handled by a party of the left. This has long been implicit in the Labour leader’s actions. Its explicit declaration will still disappoint anyone harbouring hopes that the opposition is engaged in some cunning guerrilla sabotage, sniping tactically at the Tories and holding back from a full-throated remain cry only because public opinion is unready to hear it. Corbyn’s cards have come away from his chest, and he’s holding a flush of leave.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/26/jeremy-corbyn-brexit-theresa-may?CMP=share_btn_tw
Corbyn is a marmite candidate and he's hit a ceiling on the number of people who will vote for him. The biggest danger to the Tories is failing to deliver Brexit or delivering it in such a way it leads to abstentions or a Ukip resurgence. It is only in the heads of the Brexit obsessed that a pivot towards soft Brexit or a second referendum looks like a vote winner for the Conservatives. Or, for that matter, Labour. Under ordinary circumstances you could see a lot of those Con remainers going Lib Dems but not while a vote for the Lib Dems stands a chance of letting Corbyn in.
We could do with some recent polling on how important people feel Brexit is and how much it will influence their voters. Less than we think or would like, I fancy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/27/brexit-chaos-britain-homelessness-prisons-welfare
Economic issues are likely to be paramount and Corbyn remains weak on those. His one hope is that the government are barely doing better at this moment.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Trump is on equal approval or disapproval, no he's 17 points behind. On the same day.
A lot of PBers, and Mike Smithson in particular, need to stop looking at the world through the fuzzy lens of a left of centre Remainer. Out there it isn’t like that.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-43198275
There is plenty in the Corbyn speech for the EU negotiators to dislike. If Labour were in government, Corbyn would be accused of cherry-picking and cake-ism. But the tone — and being in opposition — means he is likely to get an easier ride as the EU waits for Friday.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/brexit-speech-jeremy-corbyn-customs-union
It is hard to imagine Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn swapping Brexit confidences, but if it did happen they would find they had a lot in common. Both were chilly remainers who kept the referendum campaign at arm’s length. Both then embraced a leaver’s agenda with an eagerness pro-Europeans found unseemly. May harbours a quietly nationalistic distaste for anything that presumes cultural and political parity between the UK and continentals. Corbyn is steeped in socialist distrust of institutions that uphold free markets. The European Union is too foreign for the Tory leader and too capitalist for the Labour one, but neither wants to be defined by that reaction. They are natural Eurosceptics, not wild Europhobes.
Brexit is a second order issue for me. I have always thought that this is the case for the vast majority of voters, who won't change party merely based on the relative Brexit policies of the blue and red teams.
We leave the EU and then negotiate, on their terms, to stay in a customs union that we want. We'll have to accept F.O.M and all the other rules they insist on. Or, perhaps, as old Bonehead believes, they will be so grateful, they will give us more opt-outs. Even if Barnier wanted to, it wouldn't be allowed.
I know they think the voters, and leavers in particular, are stupid, but come on..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/apr/26/dumbbell-attack-teacher-student-die
With a gun he might well have killed the boy and maybe gone on a rampage.
But such things are pretty rare.
The key problem with this is it assumes teachers would be willing and able to use their weapons in the case of a shooting. As the police officer's actions in Florida show, that is a reckless assumption.
Trump is possibly the one person who could have used this to tighten gun laws. Just rolling out Texan laws nationwide might be enough. But like a good populist, he told his base what they wanted to hear rather than what they needed to be told.
The amendment passes. Labour has scored. Tory civil war intensifies as hatred is poured onto the Tory saboteurs.
The amendment falls. Nothing is resolved. The government doesn't have an alternative. Labour basks in approval from business and others as the sensible party.
The government goes for the Customs Union. Risks a coup from the Rees Hogg group.
The mere fact he did slightly better than expected doesn't alter that. The amusing irony is that one of his supporters said that Labour would compromise for power, but not for 250 seats. By failing to compromise, they got the 250 seats and missed out on power.
All that is needed for a Labour majority is for some of the unpatriotic traitor remain voters to not vote Tory. If targeted efficiently across the country a few tens of thousands would be sufficient.
That is the big risk to the Tories (started typing May, then realised it doesn't affect her...) - their own voters hear the abuse thrown at them and sit the next one out
A period of calm would help very considerably.
I'm not a fan of Corbyn, or of his brand of politics (you'll disagree, but I think we're not seeing the true face of his politics atm). However if this government continues to be a Brexit-obsessed basketcase, and if Corbyn gets some adults around him at the top of Labour, and South Cambs has a good Labour candidate, I would be tempted.
He'd be a disaster, but this government is sleep-walking to disaster anyway. Perhaps it would be time to try another angle.
That['s how bad this 'Conservative' government is...
cf Tories.
So no "harm" - but no point either.
There are no positive reasons to vote Conservative for most Conservative voters, only negative ones not to vote for Labour or (ha!) the Lib Dems.
That'll cause people to stay at home.
May needs a positive vision for the country, and fast. F*** Brexit.
Vox runs through some of the many problems:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/23/17041662/armed-teachers-gun-violence-mass-shootings
"No. That happened when they elected Corbyn"
I didn't mind when they elected the silly old Trot. I voted Labour when Foot was in charge, and I had no problems with Kinnock. I did jump ship to the LDs when Blair came along, but even Ed was a democrat.
However, the vilification of political opponents is more worrying since the referendum normalised it. Parliamentary democracy is an unnecessary complication to true Trots, it allows Farmer Jones back into the fold. It may not be likely even if Old Bonehead were PM, but the vilification will reach epic proportions.
The problem is, though, that lots of shooters commit suicide (Columbine) or turn out to have had suicide plans which they failed to carry out. If it were me I'd much rather be shot and killed by someone else than by myself and this is quite common - "suicide by cop" - so armed teachers might be an attraction rather than deterrent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-Tsq9RQiXg
No it isn’t
Business isn’t “abandoning the Tories”! Not with Corbyn as the alternative.
There really is a great deal of nonsense and hyperbole on these threads.
On the other hand you have a Government with an admittedly self-inflicted gunshot wound to the feet, trying to weave a way through to deliver a people's verdict that many elected politicians are very, very snooty about, tried to stop, are trying to stop - and have been complicit in decades of binding us tightly into the EU, supposedly so as to make it impossible to have ever come about. Add toys-out-the-pram hissy fits on one side and an almost religious fervour to escape Brussels clutches on the other.
And then add a narrow - but big enough - initial mandate for the process and a tiny Parliamentary majority on a good day, and stalemate on a bad one.
And THEN add in grave consequences for the economy of delivering a bad deal - and even worse consequences for democracy of not delivering Brexit at all.
I don't think you could say it is sleep-walking to disaster. With that set of conflicting elements to meld together in a little over a year, I doubt there is very much sleep at the heart of government.
the EU27 has said “no ‘cherry-picking’”! Except…it hasn’t said that, in this area. The EU negotiation guidelines only state that position in relation to single market issues. But shouldn’t that same rule apply here anyway, for the sake of consistency? You might think so, except in the area of external security (see below) the Commission is quite happy to contemplate a bespoke arrangement. And in the area of fisheries, it strongly endorses it. The “no cherry picking” rule is thus a political choice, which the Commission argues for in some areas, and argues against in others.
http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.id/2018/02/lions-or-unicorns-theresa-may-and-boris.html
If Labour were proposing the Norway solution, why didn't they say so? That's exactly my point - to do that, would risk the obvious complaints, so they lie low and say nuffin.