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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even Arron Banks now thinks we are heading for a second refere
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even Arron Banks now thinks we are heading for a second referendum
What I find interesting is that some Brexiteers seem to want one https://t.co/rxkbyCiWvx
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There wont be a second referendum.
These things will not be decided by the likes of Farage or Banks.
In fact, there wont be one BECAUSE they say there will be one.
I think its cruel to get remoaners hopes up only to dash them.
Remain 48%
1) Reject the deal and Remain
2) Reject the deal and leave with no deal
3) Accept the deal
Conducted under AV
Corbyn won't want one as it will split him from his party - he was nearly toppled by the first one
Arlene Foster won't want one as she backs a hardish Brexit
As you say it doesn't matter what Banks or Farage or Adonis or Campbell thinks - the people likely to have the power to require one don't want one.
And that assumes anyone could even agree on the question. Deal or no deal but either way we leave can surely be the only option on the ballot paper - we have already voted to leave and it will be too late to stop it.
We are leaving - it's just how that is to be decided.
Suffice to say, it's NSFW
May U-turns on EU migrant rights.
Any EU citizens who move to the UK during the transition will be allowed to stay permanently.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/966801782495162368
The EU today are already talking about removing our rebate if transition goes on too long - what is to say they won't demand concessions if we decide to withdraw article 50 and remain. The other 27 think the rebate is unfair - and if we went cap in hand grovelling to stay in humiliating fashion why wouldn't they extract their pound of flesh. The status quo may well not be an option - so we might need a third vote if 1 won.
That picture of the owl needs a caption competition.
Could Sun Politics check if EU is claiming to have organised Live Aid?
Superb book.
Last year only 137 FGM cases were recorded in under 18's (table 2.2), and 159 done in the UK (table 2.7) apparantly many either unproven (as in this case) or labial piercings.
87% of recorded FGM cases are reported by midwives, with an average age age of presentation of 31 years, with the FGM having occurred decades previously in East Africa.
137 is too many but we should base our discussions on facts.
https://digital.nhs.uk/catalogue/PUB30015
Just retire now your day has been and gone.
Where were the National Bocialists
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jul/21/england-fgm-cases-recorded-2015-2016
Yes there are issues with this higher number, but I don't think anybody really believe it is just 150 a year.
I am not going to debate this further, as we know your opinion on this over many many posts arguing with SeanT.
Divergence makes lots of sense when you're one of the biggest economies in the world and need to be able to use governmental and regulatory levers to preserve and progress this
And, of course, the ability to diverge makes lots of sense when the party you're discussing with are petrified of you diverging.
Prezza has a tremendous sense of humour. He has lost two referenda on the EU, poor chap!
https://digital.nhs.uk/catalogue/PUB30015
If you have a source substantiating a figure of thousands of children per year then please cite it. As I pointed out the vast majority of recorded cases are recorded decades later by midwives at an average age of 31.
We know you don't think it is a big issue, many others disagree with you.
Cabinet Brexiters are happy following today’s Chequers summit, with one senior Brexiter telling Guido: “Divergence has won”.
https://order-order.com/2018/02/22/cabinet-brexiters-happy-chequers-agreement-divergence/
I know that there is an "everybody know there are thousands" meme amongst right wing populists, but I do not regard that as evidence.
137 is too many, but perhaps accounts for why trials are rare.
https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-daily-telegraph/20170617/281500751241946
I thought the BBC were against giving those spreading Fake News a platform.
If we look at new suspected FGM cases in children, that could be regarded as possible child abuse cases, there were 137 last year. That is why prosecutions are rare, not some bizarre cover up.
End of discussion on this. As I don't want to get put on the naughty step as others who have been previously.
It is better that we muddle on through to cliff edge Brexit. If it works and we agree fantastic unilateral trade deals - great! If it is the fiasco we Remainers predict, a more enlightened future government goes cap in hand to the EU and asks if we can rejoin, albeit on worse terms than we left, maybe a decade after we leave.
If we are ever to row back on June 2016 the Brexit experiment has to be seen to have well and truly failed. If by some remote chance it works great!
As a Brexit related anecdotal aside I have spent the week in Lisburn, general consensus is Arlene has all but killed the Good Friday Agreement to the joy of Unionists. Nationalists tended to agree but without the enthusiasm. The blame for them was placed firmly at the feet of Mrs May and this is twofold, her inability to stand up to the DUP, and her inability to control the JRM/Boris faction. The Nationalists I spoke to detest Arlene but suggest she has run rings around Theresa. General understanding from both camps is Mrs May has wildly underestimated the ramifications of getting Northern Ireland wrong. Republicans and people who just want to get on with life consider Mrs May to be very politically naive.
If you have a reliable source that thousands of UK CHILDREN are having FGM, then I would be interested to read it.
Adults are worth recording so social workers can protect the next generation.
Reality TV star Kylie Jenner wiped $1.3bn (£1bn) off the stock market value of Snapchat after tweeting that she no longer used its messaging app.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43163544
May I wish everyone a pleasant nights rest as I bid good night to all
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/what-i-saw-treating-the-victims-from-parkland-should-change-the-debate-on-guns/553937/
This chap’s slow off the mark. I wrote this ages ago -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/01/31/jeremy-corbyn-the-new-maggie-thatcher/
**....buffs nails....**
"The amendment to the trade bill is expected to win the backing of other Conservatives who inflicted defeated on the government last year on the EU withdrawal bill, including Dominic Grieve, Stephen Hammond, Jeremy Lefroy, Antoinette Sandbach and Jonathan Djanogly — all of whom had signed up to a similar amendment calling for the government to remain in “the” customs union."
I think minimum 9 Con MPs required to defeat the Govt as Field and Hoey will back Govt for certain.
If Govt loses, what happens?
It's only an amendment - so would they brush it of and say they'll reverse it later?
Or would it mean collapse of Govt?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/jeremy-corbyn-could-back-remaining-in-eu-customs-union
Presumably they would be okay with a customs union provided the rest of the UK does as well?
If true - this article does explode the idea that there is no difference between a Corbyn and a May Brexit.
They can swallow having to accept EU rules with no say for 2 years, they can even live with continued membership payments for 2 years...
If the reason for the delay is just trade deals - I don't think:
a) the public cares
b) 2 years will be enough anyway
Does it help with dusting, hoovering, tidying up or washing up? Or prepping vegetables?
As far as I can tell it sits there on a table listening in to your conversations, ocassionally googles something or flips to a Netflix channel for you.
I can really do that myself.
But much preferred to having to use a computer and google.
Next.
Colour me unconvinced.
It’s a bit like hiring a violinist for romantic dinner date in a restaurant.
Fun at the start but the novelty wears off after a few minutes.
It you have an iPhone and an Apple Watch, Siri does most of what a home pod does already.
Home Assistants are very annoying when you have young children.
They started talking to each other and ignoring him...
They already hold that info on you anyway.
The simple fact is that there were only 137 cases of suspected FGM in children in the most recent annual data, despite active mandatory multi agency reporting. Certainly there are likely to be unrecorded cases, but the numbers are pure speculation.
Posters here often imply that prosecution is so rare because of collusion or "political correctness". In reality it is because of presentation decades later. The appropriate intervention at the point of presentation in a midwifery unit is educational and via social workers to protect the next generation.