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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yes he Khan – Sadiq’s a great 33-1 bet for London Mayor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yes he Khan – Sadiq’s a great 33-1 bet for London Mayor
The Labour Party has wisely learned from the previous London selection and is not racing to select a Labour mayoral candidate soon after the defeat. However the next two years will be a great chance for aspiring candidates to jockey for position and give themselves the best chance of success.
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The Tories should tap up Seb Coe. He'd have a chance.
David Lammy (@DavidLammy) tweeted at 6:03pm - 12 Mar 13:
This tweet from the BBC is crass and unnecessary. Do we really need silly innuendo about the race of the next Pope? http://t.co/WNnI2ILsjp (https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/311538025760964608)
Henry's reasoning is reasonably good, but so much depends on Boris, and if Labour were in government he'd surely be a certainty.
You put a good case and at 33/1 it's a no-brainer. This could be the best tip on PB since Mike suggested an unknown chap called Obama was a decent punt for POTUS at 50/1.
All we need now is Roger to say 'No'....
mind you Livingstone was elected.
Oh and Blair.
er...
LAMMY FOR MAYOR!
Would a catholic vote for him?
Can I have £1 at 1000/1?
Agree - Lammy was a star after the riots and gentle pee-taking aside re the Pope or Mastermind what I've never seen him do is use his skin colour or religion to excuse misbehaviour or for special pleading. I'd vote for him as someone who'd look out for all Londoners.
I don't feel the same about Khan. It's that simple.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/22/will-sun-back-ukip-2015
Khan would be a strong candidate, and as Henry points out, as Shadow Minister for London, he is already placed as effectively the leader of the opposition to Boris. He is close to Ed M, a capable media performer, and someone who would appeal to a broad spectrum of Labour-leaning London voters.
As tim points out, though, one point on the other side of the argument is whether Khan would actually want the job, rather than staying in parliament and hoping for a Cabinet post. That's hard to assess, but at 33/1 it's worth a punt.
The real question is how much Khan sees his future at cabinet level rather than stepping into a different area. Personally I would Lammy would be more inclined to go for the mayor position if he doesn't see a high level cabinet post for him.
But's it good value at that price/
Regarding the stupidly complex password requirement.
You can use a whole phrase, one that you can't forget.
Richard of York gave battle in vain is an example, or The quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dog is another.
I'm surprised Henry doesn't favour Jon Cruddas (of whom he is a long term fan), available on Laddies' list at 25/1 ..... my half pint is on him instead.
But lots of time for dark horses to appear, of course - always the problem in betting on open contests 3 years out.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2293610/EPHRAIM-HARDCASTLE--Is-minister-David-Lammy-sharpest-knife-box.html
Also look at the date - 2016 - a year after the general election and should Labour win will their candidate prevail one year into their administration ?
IMO if Boris stands he wins.
LOL!
Agreed, Jack, but Khan would give him a run for his money, and if you are on at 33/1 you could lay for a good profit either way.
Like the new wig. Axminster?
Please would you (or someone else) explain the clever way you have replied in blue bold using the @ symbol.
Based on page views as recorded by Vanilla since 9.30pm last night we will be in the $550 a month price category. That is more than our monthly average display ad revenue over past 12 months.
"I fancy Lammy to be next leader so not him though he's definitely got appeal."
Leader of the Labour Party??????? A potential Prime Minister???
I am astonished
He is 100/1, he should be 1000/1, fill your boots
What is his appeal?
have I just fallen for a wind up?
Look at Ken Clarke. I've often felt his Rolls Royce mind has been a hindrance to him.
Agreed, a decent trading bet but I wouldn't want to be holding a single ticket.
My avatar wig is an OGH knock-off made from 100% LibDem beard trimmings and recycled organic sandal waste.
Sorry, missed it. Too busy getting my money down on Khan.
And the omens aren;t good. With less than two and a half years to go until the election, Labour still doesn;t have a single policy, as far as I can see. Nor do I ever read in the press of anything being run up the flag pole by Cruddas and co to see if the voters will salute.
Ed must be thinking 'where are my f88cking policies?'
Yes, I see this principally as a trading bet too, but then so was the £50 I once had on Obama for POTUS.
Glad to learn somebody has a use for LD offcuts.
Your post made me smile. Don't give up your day job but your thoughts on lemmings babies and likes on the last thread was also worth a chuckle.
Clueless teenagers believe Delia Smith, Jerry Hall and Camilla Duchess of Cornwall were among Henry VIII's wives, new research has revealed.
The shocking lack of knowledge emerged in a study carried out among 2,000 11 to 16 year olds, which also found many are unaware of the Gunpowder Plot or which countries were involved in WWII.
Other clangers included thinking TV builder Nick Knowles built the pyramids and William Shakespeare was the chairman of the BBC.
The survey by hotel chain Premier Inn also found one in ten thought Arsenal's Emirates stadium was built before the likes of Westminster Abbey and St Paul's Cathedral.
And even more alarmingly, Bruce Forsyth, Rod Stewart and Alan Sugar were all named as Second World War Prime Ministers.
The study showed some teenagers thought Anne Frank was an American chat show host, while others and identified the plague, which killed tens of thousands of people in 1665, as a heavy metal band.
When asked to explain who Suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst was, teenagers polled gave answers including the founder of the Body Shop, an X factor finalist and the owner of high street fashion chain Miss Selfridge.
The poll also touched on aspects of geography and teenagers didn't fare any better - a third did not know that the city of London was in the South-East. And a quarter didn't realise Arsenal was a London football club.
Fortunately 91 per cent were aware that last year's Olympics were held in the capital, although a confused one in twenty thought Paris were the hosts.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2297466/Delia-Smith-Henry-VIIIs-wife-Inept-answers-history-questions-secondary-school-pupils.html#ixzz2OHFQY7Xv
"Lord Mandelson has launched a damaging critique of Ed Balls as shadow chancellor, accusing him of living in the past and focusing on “tiring” arguments about the pace of spending cuts.
Speaking at the CBI’s annual dinner in London on Thursday, Labours former business secretary said his party’s economic strategy was failing to win over voters.
Lord Mandelson said: “The whole argument about whether we’re cutting too far and too fast, it’s in the past. It is rather predictable party political stuff from over the dispatch box, and it is a bit tiring to the public.”
"Glad to learn somebody has a use for LD offcuts."
Offcuts and .... er prime cuts too ....
Chortle.
Lol !
Vanilla wouldn't accept the old name without the dashes, so I had to work around.....but if it helps swell the PB coffers, so much the better.
@MikeSmithson
Mike, is it time to consider setting up some sort of monthly/annual subscription option due to the increased costs of funding the site in this more user friendly format? Maybe try it as a voluntary contribution to see if this would cover the running costs so you are not left out pocket? What do other PBees think of this idea?
I think that's a great idea (I would, I suggested something similar earlier!). A voluntary system where people regularly contribute what they can (though perhaps a suggested amount to guide us). It has the benefit of being regular and predictable so Mike can tell in advance whether there's going to be enough. If it works, great, if it doesnt make up the shortfall then back to the drawingboard (and bye bye vanilla).
Thank you
Well I believe in elitism and I think having "likes" on pb sullied the site. They discouraged a thoughtful response and encouraged battery hen style pecking at a food button action. Could go on at length actually on how they are a parallel for a lot of things in society but will simply say I believe "likes" are now the opium of the masses
If readers pay the hosting fees, is PB subject to Leveson or not?
Also what's his expenses record like?
Given some of Livingstone's dubious friendships/alliances, I would have thought that Labour would want to ensure that any future candidate does not face similar criticisms.
Are page views judged by each time someone refreshes a page? - is that the only way to see new posts?
At 151 PBers, $550 is about £2.50 per month each.
Assembly Member Len Duvall (and former Greenwich council leader) already announced he will apply to G&W if it isn't AWS.
Clueless teenagers believe Delia Smith, Jerry Hall and Camilla Duchess of Cornwall were among Henry VIII's wives, new research has revealed."
Three years of Tory educashun has had very little remedial effect, I see.
Well that's Val scuppered then! I await news from Dora's camp with anticipation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/21892960
Good news, I feel. If they're suffering it decreases the chances of Red Bull walking away with the titles.
I assumed it was a joke, but when I saw it appeared in the Daily Mail, I suspected it wasn't.
The poll was probably confined to its readers.
Meanwhile ...
- Spanish Council of Ministers approves new law to clarify creditor precedence in the event of bank failure
- Italian President due to announce whether his country is governable
- Cyprus waits for Tsar Putin's conditions for saving the country from bankruptcy
And on PB ...
tim is still wibbling on about second home mortgages.
If the Tories go into the election with someone who has the charisma of a Kit Malthouse they wont have much chance of winning.
I dont know about others but I'm secretly hoping Brian Coleman goes for the job.
Very speculative, of course.
I am seriously tempted to buy my holiday money for the US this summer this weekend. I really cannot see the Pound's strength lasting.
The more I have thought about it the more I have come to the conclusion that the budget just did not do enough to address the problems we face. Osborne is taking one more gamble on hugely excessive government spending and borrowing boosting growth and tax revenues, the exact opposite of what he claims his policy to be. No wonder Mandleson is telling Balls to stop being so stupid.
We really are in the last chance saloon now. If this does not work we will have debts over 100% of GDP and will be doomed to slower and slower growth until default.
So far as the EU is concerned we may be one of the healthier horses in the glue factory but we should never forget where we are and why we are there.
Oh, I am clearly too late!
Since they don't make a profit, The Guardian should be o.k. then.
What I mean is that any non charismatic Tory candidate would lose the contest to whoever Labour put up. It's a Labour city, for the Tories to beat them they need a Boris-like candidate.
I think a non white conservative would be great for London
At that kind of price you could rent an entire big server and run your own system on it at no further cost. Unless your traffic is amazingly high then you could probably run it for less than that.
Just a thought.
Bev.
PS Does anybody really think that David Lammy is a "runner"? He has never struck me as having a clue about anything much.
Tories
Seb Coe has his eye on the IOC Presidency, hence his reason to take a 'step down' to become Chairman of the British Olympic Association. A London mayoralty is unlikely to be a stepping stone to his goal.
Adam Afriye would be my favoured Tory candidate. He has been making himself suitably visible of late.
Labour
The most senior active Labour politician in need of a job after 2015 will be Ed Miliband. Sadiq could offer himself as deputy Mayor in an attempt to bridge the North-South divide.
I know what you're getting at, but I'm not sure it's necessarily right. A lot would depend on the opponent. Labour might shoot themselves in the foot by choosing someone even duller, or actively objectionable.
Also, I'm not sure that London is a Labour city, once you include the outer ring. The Conservatives won more Assembly seats than Labour in 2008 and 2004, and the same number in 2000.
Bear in mind that, on current trends, the election is going to take place one year after the entry of PM Miliband into Downing Street. If that happens, there can be little doubt that Labour will be very unpopular by the time of the mayoral election.
"@Neil - There's only one Boris!"
Two Borises are mentioned in the Book of Revelations.
If Labour win in 2015 we will be in the middle of an economic meltdown on a Cyprus scale by May 2016. Can Labour win London in such a scenario? Depends on the tory candidate obviously but it will not be easy.
If Labour win will Boris look to get back in the HoC? He is likely to have missed the leadership election and not have been eligible. Will any new leader be keen to find him a seat? Being Mayor post Olympics may be boring but it is a lot more interesting than opposition.
If the tories win (ha) Labour will win London almost regardless of the candidate. I would be amazed if even Boris could hang on. Seeking the position of Labour candidate then would be seriously tempting.
Such are the prices of power in austerity Britain.
Re: USD
Just reached USD1.52 = GBP. Peculiarly, today the GBP is dropping against the Euro and rising against the USD.
Remember you can get a better rate if you buy on line (and the more you buy the better the rate) and get free delivery, either to a bank or the Post Office if you use them or to your home.
If I've seen one photo of George 'YMCA' Osborne in helmet and Hi-Vi around the online media sites today, I must have seen about 20.
Thanks for the tip. I am not being entirely serious. Even my family holidays do not involve spending to the point where a cent on the dollar becomes too signficant! At least I seriously hope not.
I wonder if these changes might make the inner ring a little bluer. and the outer ring a little redder by 2015? and certainly in the longer term.
The Tories are capable of winning more seats on the Assembly but only after the Greens (and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems) peel away support on the list vote that will go Labour (1st or 2nd preference) in the Mayoral vote. Given two equal candidates (and no complications with Independents) I think Labour beats the Tories most times for London Mayor.
Mr Kahn? :-)
May turn off some of Labour's key demographics.
Doubt it will reverse Labour's ethnic gerrymandering of the system by importing Third World migrants.