Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started. » Blog Archive » Yes he Khan – Sadiq’s a great 33-1 bet for London Mayor

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 2013 in General » Blog Archive » Yes he Khan – Sadiq’s a great 33-1 bet for London Mayor

The Labour Party has wisely learned from the previous London selection and is not racing to select a Labour mayoral candidate soon after the defeat. However the next two years will be a great chance for aspiring candidates to jockey for position and give themselves the best chance of success.

Read the full story here



  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I'd pick Lammy over Khan. Khan is a bit slimy. Lammy seems a good guy.

    The Tories should tap up Seb Coe. He'd have a chance.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,870
    Khan comes over well. Henry makes a good case. One of your better recent pieces, Henry!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,157
    Looks a hot tip at that price!
  • I'm on, albeit with not very much. It's a value bet, but three years is a long time to tie up money!
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Lammy a false favourite? The mans a political heavyweight who understands the subtle nuances of all of Londons faiths and never lets his own agenda interfere

    David Lammy (@DavidLammy) tweeted at 6:03pm - 12 Mar 13:

    This tweet from the BBC is crass and unnecessary. Do we really need silly innuendo about the race of the next Pope? (
  • I keep on forgetting my absurdly long passwords.

    Henry's reasoning is reasonably good, but so much depends on Boris, and if Labour were in government he'd surely be a certainty.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Is Cruddas a runner?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @adamboultonSKY: Alexander Lebedev says he hasn't contributed tithe Hacked Off campaign and that press regulation proposals are a bad idea
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Good article and I'm tempted, but Lammy is one of the few labour politicians I genuinely like. After the riots he shot up in my estimation. He clearly has a huge connection with and feeling for the area he comes from and has represented. And he has charisma, which Khan lacks.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2013
    Henry, what are the chances of Ken Livingstone standing again, with or without Labour backing, and splitting the left wing vote? - Or has Ken decided to pack the whole political malarkey in to spend more time with his newts?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Thank you for the interesting article Henry. Always one of your best when you write about Labour.
  • Thanks Henry.

    You put a good case and at 33/1 it's a no-brainer. This could be the best tip on PB since Mike suggested an unknown chap called Obama was a decent punt for POTUS at 50/1.

    All we need now is Roger to say 'No'....
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    12 posts in and I am already too late to point out the infamous David lammy tweet proving he is a complete tool.

    mind you Livingstone was elected.

    Oh and Blair.


  • samsam Posts: 727
    God help us if Lammy is let anywhere near it... He is a clown... Mastermind? Henry VII? racist smoke?

    Would a catholic vote for him?
  • Khan also has an at least knee deep commitment to civil liberties, which is a vanishingly rare quality in the Labour Party, and indeed, in mainstream British politics today. It would be better for the country if he was LC in the next Labour government.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited March 2013
    @tim 1.31 PM
    Can I have £1 at 1000/1?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Agree - Lammy was a star after the riots and gentle pee-taking aside re the Pope or Mastermind what I've never seen him do is use his skin colour or religion to excuse misbehaviour or for special pleading. I'd vote for him as someone who'd look out for all Londoners.

    I don't feel the same about Khan. It's that simple.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,157
    Apologies if already linked, but an intriguing speculation here, perhaps worth a column:
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited March 2013
    Thanks, Henry - a very good tip at these odds.

    Khan would be a strong candidate, and as Henry points out, as Shadow Minister for London, he is already placed as effectively the leader of the opposition to Boris. He is close to Ed M, a capable media performer, and someone who would appeal to a broad spectrum of Labour-leaning London voters.

    As tim points out, though, one point on the other side of the argument is whether Khan would actually want the job, rather than staying in parliament and hoping for a Cabinet post. That's hard to assess, but at 33/1 it's worth a punt.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,341
    Ladbrokes suspend betting on Sadiq Khan
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,595
    It's not a bad punt at all. But theres plenty of names which could go into that hat.

    The real question is how much Khan sees his future at cabinet level rather than stepping into a different area. Personally I would Lammy would be more inclined to go for the mayor position if he doesn't see a high level cabinet post for him.

    But's it good value at that price/
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Regarding the stupidly complex password requirement.

    You can use a whole phrase, one that you can't forget.

    Richard of York gave battle in vain is an example, or The quick brown fox jumped over the lazy dog is another.
  • Sadiq Khan's price has been suspended already by Ladbrokes - it will probably re-appear at around 15/1 so the value has gone effectively.

    I'm surprised Henry doesn't favour Jon Cruddas (of whom he is a long term fan), available on Laddies' list at 25/1 ..... my half pint is on him instead.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,157
    Can't see either Boris or Ken wanting to stand again - Boris is barely pretending that he's interested in his job now and mainly comments on national issues; Ken had a rough campaign and can't see him wanting another one when he's four years older. Both have been there, got the T-shirt.

    But lots of time for dark horses to appear, of course - always the problem in betting on open contests 3 years out.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @Kevin_Maguire: Hacked Off refusing to disclose names of big donors an own goal for a lobby claiming to champion transparency
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Academic from a betting point of view following Mike's post, but I'm not convinced by this one. It's a strong argument for why he would be the most credible representative of the political class competing for the role, but I'm not sure that's what wins London mayor elections - clowns, caricatures and folk heroes are more where it's at. So if you could be confident that the Blues would pick a similarly safe political candidate, this would be a great bet; but he could well struggle to beat a Jeremy Clarkson (say). Lammy has more of the left-wing folk hero appeal that Ken had, but, as Ken ultimately became, he might be too polarising a candidate to expand far enough from the urban left-wing core.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,341
    @peter_from_putney One thing I would never argue with on PB is Henry G's understanding of Labour's internal politics. I find his post compelling and got my cash on this morning.
  • Suspended!
  • I guess we mean London riots rather than London rights?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Initially this looks a good spot. However Boris is the huge fly in the ointment.

    Also look at the date - 2016 - a year after the general election and should Labour win will their candidate prevail one year into their administration ?

    IMO if Boris stands he wins.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,781
    Isn't Khan a bit dull to be Mayor? I fancy Lammy to be next leader so probably not him though he's definately got appeal. I think Labour will put up a woman next time and there are plenty to choose from
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,681
    Diane Abbott doesn't rule herself out

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    @Blue_rog I wouldn't do that, because they can be vulnerable to hash tables (not that I would be too concerned about them hacking a comment provider). A phrase known to you would be fine, or something genuinely rare perhaps. Thatcher's speech to the Commons after the Falklands might be suitable for a Pber :)
  • @JackW

    Agreed, Jack, but Khan would give him a run for his money, and if you are on at 33/1 you could lay for a good profit either way.

    Like the new wig. Axminster?
  • Mike - I wouldn't argue with Heny, but like I said Khan's price is suspended! That's why I went with one of Henry's previous favs in picking Jon Cruddas.

    Please would you (or someone else) explain the clever way you have replied in blue bold using the @ symbol.
  • What did you think of the snowy first of the season, Peter? I quite liked the one in third if he can calm down a bit before the off.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,341
    151 PBers have now successfully signed up with Vanilla.

    Based on page views as recorded by Vanilla since 9.30pm last night we will be in the $550 a month price category. That is more than our monthly average display ad revenue over past 12 months.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,341
    @peter_from_putney I copy your user name and then put an @ in front. Simplicity itself.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013

    "I fancy Lammy to be next leader so not him though he's definitely got appeal."

    Leader of the Labour Party??????? A potential Prime Minister???

    I am astonished

    He is 100/1, he should be 1000/1, fill your boots

    What is his appeal?

    have I just fallen for a wind up?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,681
    edited March 2013
    Another LOL moment. apparently Sally Bercow wants to apply to Harrow East selection
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    It's a bit cruel to point to Lammy not being the brightest tool in the box, in politics intelligence can sometimes be a hindrance.

    Look at Ken Clarke. I've often felt his Rolls Royce mind has been a hindrance to him.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Agreed, a decent trading bet but I wouldn't want to be holding a single ticket.

    My avatar wig is an OGH knock-off made from 100% LibDem beard trimmings and recycled organic sandal waste.
  • @LucianF

    Sorry, missed it. Too busy getting my money down on Khan.
  • P_t_P ... I see you have now adopted a hyphenated username - are you going out of your way to confuse other posters here? Still this could go some way towards raising that $550 per month to operate Vanilla.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The problem with Cruddas is that he is Ed's big policy architect and if Ed doesn;t win hansomely in 2015 (god forbid!), then Cruddas is going to take some of the flak.

    And the omens aren;t good. With less than two and a half years to go until the election, Labour still doesn;t have a single policy, as far as I can see. Nor do I ever read in the press of anything being run up the flag pole by Cruddas and co to see if the voters will salute.

    Ed must be thinking 'where are my f88cking policies?'
  • @JackW

    Yes, I see this principally as a trading bet too, but then so was the £50 I once had on Obama for POTUS.

    Glad to learn somebody has a use for LD offcuts.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,781

    Your post made me smile. Don't give up your day job but your thoughts on lemmings babies and likes on the last thread was also worth a chuckle.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Legacy of Labour's Educashun

    Clueless teenagers believe Delia Smith, Jerry Hall and Camilla Duchess of Cornwall were among Henry VIII's wives, new research has revealed.

    The shocking lack of knowledge emerged in a study carried out among 2,000 11 to 16 year olds, which also found many are unaware of the Gunpowder Plot or which countries were involved in WWII.

    Other clangers included thinking TV builder Nick Knowles built the pyramids and William Shakespeare was the chairman of the BBC.

    The survey by hotel chain Premier Inn also found one in ten thought Arsenal's Emirates stadium was built before the likes of Westminster Abbey and St Paul's Cathedral.

    And even more alarmingly, Bruce Forsyth, Rod Stewart and Alan Sugar were all named as Second World War Prime Ministers.

    The study showed some teenagers thought Anne Frank was an American chat show host, while others and identified the plague, which killed tens of thousands of people in 1665, as a heavy metal band.

    When asked to explain who Suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst was, teenagers polled gave answers including the founder of the Body Shop, an X factor finalist and the owner of high street fashion chain Miss Selfridge.

    The poll also touched on aspects of geography and teenagers didn't fare any better - a third did not know that the city of London was in the South-East. And a quarter didn't realise Arsenal was a London football club.

    Fortunately 91 per cent were aware that last year's Olympics were held in the capital, although a confused one in twenty thought Paris were the hosts.

    Read more:

  • @MikeSmithson - Thanks!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Mandy kicks Balls in the spheroids

    "Lord Mandelson has launched a damaging critique of Ed Balls as shadow chancellor, accusing him of living in the past and focusing on “tiring” arguments about the pace of spending cuts.

    Speaking at the CBI’s annual dinner in London on Thursday, Labours former business secretary said his party’s economic strategy was failing to win over voters.

    Lord Mandelson said: “The whole argument about whether we’re cutting too far and too fast, it’s in the past. It is rather predictable party political stuff from over the dispatch box, and it is a bit tiring to the public.”
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    "Glad to learn somebody has a use for LD offcuts."

    Offcuts and .... er prime cuts too ....

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @MikeSmithson - I sent you a message through the Vanilla mail system (partly as a test). Did this reach you?
  • @PfP

    Lol !

    Vanilla wouldn't accept the old name without the dashes, so I had to work around.....but if it helps swell the PB coffers, so much the better.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,205
    Mike, is it time to consider setting up some sort of monthly/annual subscription option due to the increased costs of funding the site in this more user friendly format? Maybe try it as a voluntary contribution to see if this would cover the running costs so you are not left out pocket? What do other PBees think of this idea?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,595
    If those 150 odd people signed up for 20 quid a year (not forced to, but say they did), would they potentially cover the short fall Mike? (that would be £3k or so) I know I get well more than £20 quid in value from tips etc a year!!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I think that's a great idea (I would, I suggested something similar earlier!). A voluntary system where people regularly contribute what they can (though perhaps a suggested amount to guide us). It has the benefit of being regular and predictable so Mike can tell in advance whether there's going to be enough. If it works, great, if it doesnt make up the shortfall then back to the drawingboard (and bye bye vanilla).
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013

    Thank you

    Well I believe in elitism and I think having "likes" on pb sullied the site. They discouraged a thoughtful response and encouraged battery hen style pecking at a food button action. Could go on at length actually on how they are a parallel for a lot of things in society but will simply say I believe "likes" are now the opium of the masses
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MediaGuido: Hacked Off calls for all non-profit publishers to be excluded from regulation. Shows you how little they know about modern journalism.

    If readers pay the hosting fees, is PB subject to Leveson or not?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,401
    Labour might want to make sure there are no skeletons in Sadiq Khan's cupboard before putting him forward. He was the MP whose calls with Babar Ahmed (charged by the US with terrorism offences) were bugged and questions were raised about whether he had been transparent to the Commons about the nature and length of his relationship.

    Also what's his expenses record like?

    Given some of Livingstone's dubious friendships/alliances, I would have thought that Labour would want to ensure that any future candidate does not face similar criticisms.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Lammy is overestimated although Khan comes across as too "smooth" for my tastes.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Are page views judged by each time someone refreshes a page? - is that the only way to see new posts?

    At 151 PBers, $550 is about £2.50 per month each.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,681

    Assembly Member Len Duvall (and former Greenwich council leader) already announced he will apply to G&W if it isn't AWS.
  • Mister impatience looks like one to put in the notebook. Never even looked like he was running and win by 9
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Is there any hope that Sally Bercow might have a shot at becoming the Labour candidate for mayor? Would it help if the PB Tories lent her our support?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    John McDonnell would be my choice but a poke at 33s on Sadiq Khan is worth a few quid.I have learnt recently to take the wise words of Henry G with a degree of seriousness.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Legacy of Labour's Educashun

    Clueless teenagers believe Delia Smith, Jerry Hall and Camilla Duchess of Cornwall were among Henry VIII's wives, new research has revealed."

    Three years of Tory educashun has had very little remedial effect, I see.
  • Grr @Peter_the_Punter show off.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Well that's Val scuppered then! I await news from Dora's camp with anticipation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Am going to re-designate the Guido blog a not-for-profit workers co-op blog. Some may be more equal than others mind you. #BlogOff
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,104
    F1: Vettel and Webber dislike the tyres:

    Good news, I feel. If they're suffering it decreases the chances of Red Bull walking away with the titles.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,205
    @Neil @Slackbladder I was wondering if we could see how many regulars were prepared to sign up to some sort of voluntary subscription to see what kind of amount we would be looking at contributing to help cover the costs? I have had years of enjoyment participating on the site, and I think it would be worth every penny to see the site costs covered in such a user friendly format. I really don't like the idea of Mike being left so out of pocket trying to make the site better for us all without making some sort of contribution.
  • @JamesK

    I assumed it was a joke, but when I saw it appeared in the Daily Mail, I suspected it wasn't.

    The poll was probably confined to its readers.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    Post budget pound soaring so high it is threatening to puncture a hole in the ozone layer.

    Meanwhile ...

    - Spanish Council of Ministers approves new law to clarify creditor precedence in the event of bank failure

    - Italian President due to announce whether his country is governable

    - Cyprus waits for Tsar Putin's conditions for saving the country from bankruptcy

    And on PB ...

    tim is still wibbling on about second home mortgages.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @tim - I've taken a small speculative position on Kit Malthouse, 66/1 Ladbrokes, 80/1 PP
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    If the Tories go into the election with someone who has the charisma of a Kit Malthouse they wont have much chance of winning.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I dont know about others but I'm secretly hoping Brian Coleman goes for the job.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Neil - Maybe not, but the first question to ask is: would he want the job? The second is: Would he be well placed to get the nomination? The answers look to me like Yes and Yes, and I don't see many charismatic candidates around (unless Seb Coe wants a shot, which I doubt).

    Very speculative, of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 46,459
    I am seriously tempted to buy my holiday money for the US this summer this weekend. I really cannot see the Pound's strength lasting.

    The more I have thought about it the more I have come to the conclusion that the budget just did not do enough to address the problems we face. Osborne is taking one more gamble on hugely excessive government spending and borrowing boosting growth and tax revenues, the exact opposite of what he claims his policy to be. No wonder Mandleson is telling Balls to stop being so stupid.

    We really are in the last chance saloon now. If this does not work we will have debts over 100% of GDP and will be doomed to slower and slower growth until default.

    So far as the EU is concerned we may be one of the healthier horses in the glue factory but we should never forget where we are and why we are there.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 769
    Having seen Side Effects yesterday -excellent - I see a way for the site to make money by getting OGH or HGM to promote the fortunes of some no hoper, watch his or her odds tumble and lay them heavily.

    Oh, I am clearly too late!
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 342 Off calls for all non-profit publishers to be excluded from regulation. Shows you how little they know about modern journalism.

    Since they don't make a profit, The Guardian should be o.k. then.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    What I mean is that any non charismatic Tory candidate would lose the contest to whoever Labour put up. It's a Labour city, for the Tories to beat them they need a Boris-like candidate.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,013
    I appear to now have to log in with password every day. Is there any way of avoiding this?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    David Davis Mayor of London?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited March 2013
    Priti Patel?

    I think a non white conservative would be great for London
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mike said: "Based on page views as recorded by Vanilla since 9.30pm last night we will be in the $550 a month price category. That is more than our monthly average display ad revenue over past 12 months. "

    At that kind of price you could rent an entire big server and run your own system on it at no further cost. Unless your traffic is amazingly high then you could probably run it for less than that.

    Just a thought.


    PS Does anybody really think that David Lammy is a "runner"? He has never struck me as having a clue about anything much.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    On next London Mayor


    Seb Coe has his eye on the IOC Presidency, hence his reason to take a 'step down' to become Chairman of the British Olympic Association. A London mayoralty is unlikely to be a stepping stone to his goal.

    Adam Afriye would be my favoured Tory candidate. He has been making himself suitably visible of late.


    The most senior active Labour politician in need of a job after 2015 will be Ed Miliband. Sadiq could offer himself as deputy Mayor in an attempt to bridge the North-South divide.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Neil - There's only one Boris!

    I know what you're getting at, but I'm not sure it's necessarily right. A lot would depend on the opponent. Labour might shoot themselves in the foot by choosing someone even duller, or actively objectionable.

    Also, I'm not sure that London is a Labour city, once you include the outer ring. The Conservatives won more Assembly seats than Labour in 2008 and 2004, and the same number in 2000.

    Bear in mind that, on current trends, the election is going to take place one year after the entry of PM Miliband into Downing Street. If that happens, there can be little doubt that Labour will be very unpopular by the time of the mayoral election.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,113
    edited March 2013

    "@Neil - There's only one Boris!"

    Two Borises are mentioned in the Book of Revelations.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 46,459
    edited March 2013
    If Labour win in 2015, which seems likely, then mr Kahn will be safely esconced in a cabinet job with dreams of even greater things. I don't think being mayor of London qualifies. So I really don't think he will be a candidate.

    If Labour win in 2015 we will be in the middle of an economic meltdown on a Cyprus scale by May 2016. Can Labour win London in such a scenario? Depends on the tory candidate obviously but it will not be easy.

    If Labour win will Boris look to get back in the HoC? He is likely to have missed the leadership election and not have been eligible. Will any new leader be keen to find him a seat? Being Mayor post Olympics may be boring but it is a lot more interesting than opposition.

    If the tories win (ha) Labour will win London almost regardless of the candidate. I would be amazed if even Boris could hang on. Seeking the position of Labour candidate then would be seriously tempting.

    Such are the prices of power in austerity Britain.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited March 2013

    Re: USD

    Just reached USD1.52 = GBP. Peculiarly, today the GBP is dropping against the Euro and rising against the USD.

    Remember you can get a better rate if you buy on line (and the more you buy the better the rate) and get free delivery, either to a bank or the Post Office if you use them or to your home.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Jonathan - LOL!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,986
    Bah waited for ages this morning for the tip but had to go and do some chores, now hes suspended in betting :(
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Politicians are funny

    If I've seen one photo of George 'YMCA' Osborne in helmet and Hi-Vi around the online media sites today, I must have seen about 20.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 46,459

    Thanks for the tip. I am not being entirely serious. Even my family holidays do not involve spending to the point where a cent on the dollar becomes too signficant! At least I seriously hope not.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I've read a great deal on how the tories housing benefit cap might change the demography of central London ( 'ethnic cleansing' etc etc etc).

    I wonder if these changes might make the inner ring a little bluer. and the outer ring a little redder by 2015? and certainly in the longer term.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The Tories are capable of winning more seats on the Assembly but only after the Greens (and to a lesser extent the Lib Dems) peel away support on the list vote that will go Labour (1st or 2nd preference) in the Mayoral vote. Given two equal candidates (and no complications with Independents) I think Labour beats the Tories most times for London Mayor.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146

    Mr Kahn? :-)
    May turn off some of Labour's key demographics.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146

    Doubt it will reverse Labour's ethnic gerrymandering of the system by importing Third World migrants.
This discussion has been closed.