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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boundary conditions. How Brexit might be helping to lay the ground for the SNP

Some international boundaries are easy to understand. The Pyrenees form a natural frontier between Spain and France. The Kattegat conveniently separates Sweden and Denmark. While in the past each pair of countries has seen their border shift over time, the current resting place looks very natural.

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TheScreamingEagles

Very interesting Alastair.

TheScreamingEagles

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Very interesting Alastair.

Stole my first again.

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Good morning, everyone.

F1: Williams unveil their 2018 car.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43079279

First test starts in 10 days.

FF43

Good article. Independence is off the agenda for now. Brexit will have to work for a sceptical population that largely voted against it. A big question is how anxious the English Leave faction is to keep Scotland in *a union.

* A/THE is a fashionable distinction for unions nowadays.

HYUFD

If anything now we are leaving the single market and customs union an independent Scotland that joined the EEA would be even more difficult on economic grounds as even with a FTA that would see some tariffs with the rUK just as the UK is likely to have with the Republic of Ireland. Implementing monitoring measures as will be used at the Irish border may make it practically simpler but does not change that fact

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

malcolmg

FF43 said:

Good article. Independence is off the agenda for now. Brexit will have to work for a sceptical population that largely voted against it. A big question is how anxious the English Leave faction is to keep Scotland in *a union.

* A/THE is a fashionable distinction for unions nowadays.

It is not off the agenda as far as a lot of people are concerned , well North of 40% still want it and given the way Scotland is being treated over Brexit and Westminster carpetbagging all the devolved powers , it is far from off the agenda.

malcolmg

HYUFD said:

If anything now we are leaving the single market and customs union an independent Scotland that joined the EEA would be even more difficult on economic grounds as even with a FTA that would see some tariffs with the rUK just as the UK is likely to have with the Republic of Ireland. Implementing monitoring measures as will be used at the Irish border may make it practically simpler but does not change that fact

LOL

FF43

HYUFD said:

If anything now we are leaving the single market and customs union an independent Scotland that joined the EEA would be even more difficult on economic grounds as even with a FTA that would see some tariffs with the rUK just as the UK is likely to have with the Republic of Ireland. Implementing monitoring measures as will be used at the Irish border may make it practically simpler but does not change that fact

Brexit potentially removes the SNP's version of eat cake and have. While both independent Scotland and rUK are in the EU it has preferential trade with both. After Brexit, it would have to make a choice. Ireland is key. If Ireland is successful, you can be sure there will be moves in Scotland to copy it.

welshowl

FF43 said:

Good article. Independence is off the agenda for now. Brexit will have to work for a sceptical population that largely voted against it. A big question is how anxious the English Leave faction is to keep Scotland in *a union.

* A/THE is a fashionable distinction for unions nowadays.

FPT:Common law.

I’m not a lawyer so I’m not coming at it from that angle, more a “way of doing things”. The adversarial system (which feeds through into the very lay out of many Parliaments in the English speaking world), the precedence rather than more reliance on individual judges ( which is I believe why many foreigners like deals under English or New York law because it’s more certain). Having watched agog at Spiral ( the French police series - excellent by the way) and the utterly alien and as far as I could see full of holes investigating judge system it just raises a deep seated “ hmm no thanks” in me.

The other thing I did not mention was popular culture where we really are the 51st state and firmly in the Anglosphere. I think that’s a powerful force.

FF43

malcolmg said:

FF43 said:

Good article. Independence is off the agenda for now. Brexit will have to work for a sceptical population that largely voted against it. A big question is how anxious the English Leave faction is to keep Scotland in *a union.

* A/THE is a fashionable distinction for unions nowadays.

It is not off the agenda as far as a lot of people are concerned , well North of 40% still want it and given the way Scotland is being treated over Brexit and Westminster carpetbagging all the devolved powers , it is far from off the agenda.

The SNP government are only paying lip service to independence right now. That will almost certainly change at some point.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

HYUFD

malcolmg said:

FF43 said:

Good article. Independence is off the agenda for now. Brexit will have to work for a sceptical population that largely voted against it. A big question is how anxious the English Leave faction is to keep Scotland in *a union.

* A/THE is a fashionable distinction for unions nowadays.

It is not off the agenda as far as a lot of people are concerned , well North of 40% still want it and given the way Scotland is being treated over Brexit and Westminster carpetbagging all the devolved powers , it is far from off the agenda.

It will be when Unionist parties win a majority at Holyrood as current Scottish Parliament polls predict will happen in 2021

Gardenwalker

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Speaking of Japan

https://twitter.com/womaninhavana/status/964120785840476160

AndyJS

Nice of the Japanese to offer us advice.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

February 1942 to August 1945 is 3 and a half years, so yes years

FF43

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

That's a wrong reading in my view. The SNP is still dominant, albeit fraying at the edges after too long in government with little to show for it. Brexit hasn't yet been the boost they were not so secretly hoping for.

TheScreamingEagles

‪If you thought Theresa May’s decision to hold a snap election was a mistake then Sony would like to have a word. ‬

https://twitter.com/MrJohnFlowers/status/964214706738270209

In 2008: Sony passes on deal for $25 million
Since 2008: Marvel’s 17 releases have grossed $13.5 billion

HYUFD

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Speaking of Japan

https://twitter.com/womaninhavana/status/964120785840476160

Good for Japan, we don't tell the Japanese how to run their country and we will politely decline to accept Japanese advice on how to run ours. In any case we export more to the USA and China than to Japan

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

February 1942 to August 1945 is 3 and a half years, so yes years

Almost like events like the Battle of Midway didn’t happen in your world.

HYUFD

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

That's a wrong reading in my view. The SNP is still dominant, albeit fraying at the edges after too long in government with little to show for it. Brexit hasn't yet been the boost they were not so secretly hoping for.

They lost half their MPs post Brexit and are set to lose their Holyrood majority with the Greens on current Scottish Parliament polls too

RoyalBlue

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Speaking of Japan

https://twitter.com/womaninhavana/status/964120785840476160

I wonder if Japan would be happy to adopt freedom of movement with 27 other Asian countries. I think we know the answer.

Gardenwalker

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Speaking of Japan

https://twitter.com/womaninhavana/status/964120785840476160

Good for Japan, we don't tell the Japanese how to run their country and we will politely decline to accept Japanese advice on how to run ours. In any case we export more to the USA and China than to Japan

Your response is rather predictable, but nowhere does it say Japan is offering advice.

Charles

As a quick solution, the six most north-easterly counties were retained within the UK on their existing county lines.

Not exactly. The nine counties of Ulster got to vote to decide whether to join the IFS or to remain part of the UK. In three countries (Donegal, Cavan and Moneghan) voted to leave, while the rest wanted to remain.

The British establishment, being entirely reasonable, applied the democratic choices of the majority in each county, without asking them to reconsider.

Sean_F

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

That's a wrong reading in my view. The SNP is still dominant, albeit fraying at the edges after too long in government with little to show for it. Brexit hasn't yet been the boost they were not so secretly hoping for.

I'd describe the SNP as powerful, but not dominant. Rather like the DUP.

DavidL

6 off a no ball and 4 off the free hit. 11 off 1 legal delivery. Australia are going to do this unless there is a clatter of wickets. 1 gone there.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

February 1942 to August 1945 is 3 and a half years, so yes years

Almost like events like the Battle of Midway didn’t happen in your world.

Simultaneously attacking the US, China, and the British Empire was pretty hare-brained.

FF43

Charles said:

As a quick solution, the six most north-easterly counties were retained within the UK on their existing county lines.

Not exactly. The nine counties of Ulster got to vote to decide whether to join the IFS or to remain part of the UK. In three countries (Donegal, Cavan and Moneghan) voted to leave, while the rest wanted to remain.

The British establishment, being entirely reasonable, applied the democratic choices of the majority in each county, without asking them to reconsider.

Are you sure there was a vote? My understanding is that the six counties "solution" was imposed by the UK government.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

February 1942 to August 1945 is 3 and a half years, so yes years

Almost like events like the Battle of Midway didn’t happen in your world.

Simultaneously attacking the US, China, and the British Empire was pretty hare-brained.

Only rivalled by Herr Hitler declaring war on America.

Sean_F

In response to Alistair's article, I'm not sure that the technicalities swayed many Scottish voters, however much debate they generated.

tlg86

Sean_F said:

In response to Alistair's article, I'm not sure that the technicalities swayed many Scottish voters, however much debate they generated.

Agreed. It was those selfish baby boomers worrying about their pensions that swung it for No.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

February 1942 to August 1945 is 3 and a half years, so yes years

Almost like events like the Battle of Midway didn’t happen in your world.

Simultaneously attacking the US, China, and the British Empire was pretty hare-brained.

Only rivalled by Herr Hitler declaring war on America.

Max Hastings is pretty scathing about the Chinese war effort, but they still inflicted two million casualties on the Japanese.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

In response to Alistair's article, I'm not sure that the technicalities swayed many Scottish voters, however much debate they generated.

I think it was all wrapped around the question of the currency an Independent Scotland would use.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Funnily enough it was a small factor in my voting Leave. Small but never the less considered. Brexit resulting in an independent Scotland would be a double win for me.

CarlottaVance

I suspect Mr Meeks overestimates the “border controls” issues and underestimates the “currency” question, which Ireland may not necessarily offer a vote winning model for.....

John_M

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Funnily enough it was a small factor in my voting Leave. Small but never the less considered. Brexit resulting in an independent Scotland would be a double win for me.

Good morning all.

Ditto. I'm not a Unionist. A united Ireland would be a bonus.

malcolmg

HYUFD said:

If anything now we are leaving the single market and customs union an independent Scotland that joined the EEA would be even more difficult on economic grounds as even with a FTA that would see some tariffs with the rUK just as the UK is likely to have with the Republic of Ireland. Implementing monitoring measures as will be used at the Irish border may make it practically simpler but does not change that fact

LOL

williamglenn

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Funnily enough it was a small factor in my voting Leave. Small but never the less considered. Brexit resulting in an independent Scotland would be a double win for me.

Even if that independent Scotland were in the EU?

rottenborough

Not sure what has prompted this, but:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/964422834083659778

malcolmg

FF43 said:

malcolmg said:

FF43 said:

Good article. Independence is off the agenda for now. Brexit will have to work for a sceptical population that largely voted against it. A big question is how anxious the English Leave faction is to keep Scotland in *a union.

* A/THE is a fashionable distinction for unions nowadays.

It is not off the agenda as far as a lot of people are concerned , well North of 40% still want it and given the way Scotland is being treated over Brexit and Westminster carpetbagging all the devolved powers , it is far from off the agenda.

The SNP government are only paying lip service to independence right now. That will almost certainly change at some point.

For sure, at some point they will have to go for it or have a civil war in the party. Lots of people are only SNP for independence, the longer they wait the more chance they have of people drifting away.

Gardenwalker

RoyalBlue said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Speaking of Japan

https://twitter.com/womaninhavana/status/964120785840476160

I wonder if Japan would be happy to adopt freedom of movement with 27 other Asian countries. I think we know the answer.

Yep, agreed.
Poor demographics and insularity have been behind long term Japanese decline.

We should study them to see how to cope as we sink into economic decrepitude.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, if that's accurate, it might serve the SNP to lose a Holyrood majority. They then have a perfect reason not to try for another second referendum.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/MKarnitschnig/status/964414042780590081

Elliot

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Gardenwalker

On topic:

I think an Irish resolution doesn’t really remove the border complication for Scottish idependence. There’s no equivalent to an Anglo-Irish agreement, and the U.K. government can and should play hardball.

Howeve, Brexit certainly provides ideological support for Sindy. When the Union pursues an ideologically deranged and economically damaging course of action, what’s the point of the Union?

I see the Tyndalls of the world actively welcome the dismemberment of the country. And they call Remainers traitors!

TOPPING

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

February 1942 to August 1945 is 3 and a half years, so yes years

Almost like events like the Battle of Midway didn’t happen in your world.

Simultaneously attacking the US, China, and the British Empire was pretty hare-brained.

Only rivalled by Herr Hitler declaring war on America.

Max Hastings is pretty scathing about the Chinese war effort, but they still inflicted two million casualties on the Japanese.

(One version of) the old joke: two Chinese generals, one to the other - it's getting bad, we've lost 10,000 men while the Japanese have only lost 1,000. The other responds: pretty soon no more Japanese...

HYUFD

Trump the 3rd worst President of the modern ers says a new US poll after Nixon and LBJ.

Obama is the 3rd best after Reagan and JFK

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-obama-worst-best-poll-808238?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

DavidL

The wheels are starting to come off for the SNP. This was Alex Bell, Alex Salmond's former speech writer, in the Courier yesterday: https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/opinion/alex-bell/600937/alex-bell-phoney-pete-wishart-asking-questions-20-years-late/

Vicious attack on Pete Wishart and the mindless nonsense the SNP have been churning out for too long from someone who is instinctively very sympathetic. The need to address the real issues in Scotland and the Scottish economy has simply become too pressing to ignore.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Good morning, everyone.

F1: Williams unveil their 2018 car.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/43079279

First test starts in 10 days.

That's a rather ugly looking car, Mr.D.

FF43

AndyJS said:

Nice of the Japanese to offer us advice.

You can be sure when foreigners offer advice on trade, they don't have our interests at heart. The same applies to the EU of course.

Good article on why countries like Japan and Canada are keen to convert EU trade deals into UK ones. They get to keep their current level of tariff free exports to us while they can impose tariffs on our exports to them, thanks to rules of origin: https://www.politico.eu/article/localization-barrier-risks-to-spoil-britains-free-trade-hopes/amp/

Foxy

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Its a double whammy. They need to have cheaper decent homes for potential voters, but not cause negative equity for existing ones. It is hard to see how they can do this.

saddo

Broader view of Agent COB story. http://observer.com/2018/02/new-report-reveals-jeremy-corbyn-was-a-communist-spy-in-1980s/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Elliot

Foxy said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Its a double whammy. They need to have cheaper decent homes for potential voters, but not cause negative equity for existing ones. It is hard to see how they can do this.

There is no danger of getting close to negative equity. It will be a mammoth task to keep house prices flat, let alone reduce them.

Success will be keeping them flat while incomes grow.

Dubliner

FF43 said:

Charles said:

As a quick solution, the six most north-easterly counties were retained within the UK on their existing county lines.

Not exactly. The nine counties of Ulster got to vote to decide whether to join the IFS or to remain part of the UK. In three countries (Donegal, Cavan and Moneghan) voted to leave, while the rest wanted to remain.

The British establishment, being entirely reasonable, applied the democratic choices of the majority in each county, without asking them to reconsider.

Are you sure there was a vote? My understanding is that the six counties "solution" was imposed by the UK government.

You are right, though it would be nice if Charles could provide some evidence for his contention.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

I suspect Mr Meeks overestimates the “border controls” issues and underestimates the “currency” question, which Ireland may not necessarily offer a vote winning model for.....

You have it back to front , an over enthusiastic unionist leaver

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, I didn't design it

I agree, incidentally.

Gardenwalker

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

It’s too late.
Anyone sentient under 40 now hates the Tories and has very good reason to do so.

To tie up the threads, a Thornberry-led party makes it much “safer” for centrists to vote Labour, too.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, I didn't design it

....

The lack of offensive ballistic weaponry was a dead giveaway.

Pulpstar

Foxy said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Its a double whammy. They need to have cheaper decent homes for potential voters, but not cause negative equity for existing ones. It is hard to see how they can do this.

A bit of inflation, slowly rising interest rates and steady new home growth to gradually decrease the wage multiple whilst preserving nominal growth ?~
Its a bit of a needle to thread but doable.

FF43

malcolmg said:

FF43 said:

malcolmg said:

FF43 said:

Good article. Independence is off the agenda for now. Brexit will have to work for a sceptical population that largely voted against it. A big question is how anxious the English Leave faction is to keep Scotland in *a union.

* A/THE is a fashionable distinction for unions nowadays.

It is not off the agenda as far as a lot of people are concerned , well North of 40% still want it and given the way Scotland is being treated over Brexit and Westminster carpetbagging all the devolved powers , it is far from off the agenda.

The SNP government are only paying lip service to independence right now. That will almost certainly change at some point.

For sure, at some point they will have to go for it or have a civil war in the party. Lots of people are only SNP for independence, the longer they wait the more chance they have of people drifting away.

I think that's right. "Bide your time" only works if you think things are moving your way. The risk for those supporting independence is the SNP membership forces the party to make a move for independence when it's not ready. The Quebec assumption is you get two shots at independence.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

IanB2

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

New housing alone won't solve it; the causes are significantly financial.

HYUFD

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Yet this week we find that the number of first time buyers is at an 11 year high as more affordable homes become available.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-43043294

Building more homes through local plans, keeping inheritance tax down and ending free movement to reduce demand will all help expand home ownership

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, nobody ignores blue flags when you have a trebuchet.

HYUFD

Gardenwalker said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

It’s too late.
Anyone sentient under 40 now hates the Tories and has very good reason to do so.

To tie up the threads, a Thornberry-led party makes it much “safer” for centrists to vote Labour, too.

Corbyn and Momentum are not going to make way for Thornberry and she is still little more than Ed Miliband in a skirt

DavidL

HYUFD said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Yet this week we find that the number of first time buyers is at an 11 year high as more affordable homes become available.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-43043294

Building more homes through local plans, keeping inheritance tax down and ending free movement to reduce demand will all help expand home ownership

If Dominic Raab can make a real impact on the market for the disappointed 25-34 year olds, giving them the sort of opportunities their parents took for granted, he will indeed become a contender. But it is a big ask with limited tools and budget at his disposal.

Sean_F

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

OTOH, the number of first time buyers (365,000) is at its highest since 2007, and house building has reached its highest level since 1997. In most of the country, housing has become more affordable since 2007. The 1997-2007 period was when prices went crazy, on the back of bad lending practices.

Foxy said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Its a double whammy. They need to have cheaper decent homes for potential voters, but not cause negative equity for existing ones. It is hard to see how they can do this.

I expect house prices will fall in London and remain static elsewhere for the foreseeable future.

Nigelb

Dubliner said:

FF43 said:

Charles said:

As a quick solution, the six most north-easterly counties were retained within the UK on their existing county lines.

Not exactly. The nine counties of Ulster got to vote to decide whether to join the IFS or to remain part of the UK. In three countries (Donegal, Cavan and Moneghan) voted to leave, while the rest wanted to remain.

The British establishment, being entirely reasonable, applied the democratic choices of the majority in each county, without asking them to reconsider.

Are you sure there was a vote? My understanding is that the six counties "solution" was imposed by the UK government.

You are right, though it would be nice if Charles could provide some evidence for his contention.

I don't think there is any.
The Boundary Commission report was indeed based on the detail of the local election results, but was effectively ignored:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Boundary_Commission#Intergovernmental_agreement_Nov–Dec_1925

malcolmg

DavidL said:

The wheels are starting to come off for the SNP. This was Alex Bell, Alex Salmond's former speech writer, in the Courier yesterday: https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/opinion/alex-bell/600937/alex-bell-phoney-pete-wishart-asking-questions-20-years-late/

Vicious attack on Pete Wishart and the mindless nonsense the SNP have been churning out for too long from someone who is instinctively very sympathetic. The need to address the real issues in Scotland and the Scottish economy has simply become too pressing to ignore.

David, unfortunately there are ZERO other options in Scotland. Tories and Labour are woeful , Lib Dems and Greens less than useless. SNP are the only show in town, but if they don't get a 2nd referendum sorted they will have more and more infighting.

FF43

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

More simply if Ireland is seen as a relative success after Brexit, people in Scotland will say, we can do the same. The issues hypothetically facing a Scotland considering independence are the same as those actually facing Ireland right now.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, nobody ignores blue flags when you have a trebuchet.

I rather think the aerodynamic penalty would mean your car would be the one ignoring the flags...
Your talents might be better directed towards Mario Kart GOC Edition.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

Yet if referendum were won solely on economic sense then Remain would have won a landslide.

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

Though the solution only deals with issues that weren't even issues in 2014.

None of the issues that bedeviled the Independence campaign in 2014 like which currency should be used are addressed by any agreement with Ireland.

malcolmg

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

Also if not found it is a hard Brexit and big impact to Scotland and so makes independence more attractive.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

I really don't think so. The Northern Irish economy is already much more integrated with the South than Scotland is with anywhere outside the UK. The sea border makes controlling immigration and trade to the mainland pretty straightforward even if NI has a "soft" and porous border with the Republic. I don't see how that can work in Scotland. If we joined the EU and had freedom of movement again how would England control its own immigration without a hard border?

The SNP's best hope is that the UK ends up with a FTA with the EU so that we still have the benefits of the SM. If that is achieved some but not all of the problems will recede, as they will in NI. The SNP leadership must be secretly cheering May on.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

I really don't think so. The Northern Irish economy is already much more integrated with the South than Scotland is with anywhere outside the UK. The sea border makes controlling immigration and trade to the mainland pretty straightforward even if NI has a "soft" and porous border with the Republic. I don't see how that can work in Scotland. If we joined the EU and had freedom of movement again how would England control its own immigration without a hard border?

The SNP's best hope is that the UK ends up with a FTA with the EU so that we still have the benefits of the SM. If that is achieved some but not all of the problems will recede, as they will in NI. The SNP leadership must be secretly cheering May on.

I see. So your preferred Northern Irish solution is to shaft the DUP.

Foxy

Elliot said:

Foxy said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

Its a double whammy. They need to have cheaper decent homes for potential voters, but not cause negative equity for existing ones. It is hard to see how they can do this.

There is no danger of getting close to negative equity. It will be a mammoth task to keep house prices flat, let alone reduce them.

Success will be keeping them flat while incomes grow.

Though over recent years incomes have grown less than inflation, let alone house prices.

Though having experienced negative equity 25 years ago, I wouldn't say a repeat was impossible. Indeed as interest rates go up it is quite likely at least in some areas.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

We have been told many times that the Leave vote had very little to do with economics - people, we are informed, knew that Brexit meant economic hardship, but they voted for it anyway. All the arguments made against Scottish independence in 2014 were made in favour of staying in the EU in 2016. This time Project Fear lost.

As Brexit increasingly becomes a project dictated by right wing English nationalists like Johnson and Rees Mogg, the opportunities for the SNP - which remains by far the most popular party in Scotland - may well increase. Should Labour not win the next general election, how many of the voters that the party won back from the SNP last year are going to stick with it?

TGOHF

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

They need to be inventive with stamp duty.

No stamp duty for first time buyers up to £500k+


Other tax incentives may be desirable.

Needs to be linked to a national insurance number or something to avoid abuse.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

Yet if referendum were won solely on economic sense then Remain would have won a landslide.

I don't think that either Scottish Nationalists or Scottish Unionists vote on the basis of economics.

DavidL

malcolmg said:

DavidL said:

The wheels are starting to come off for the SNP. This was Alex Bell, Alex Salmond's former speech writer, in the Courier yesterday: https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/opinion/alex-bell/600937/alex-bell-phoney-pete-wishart-asking-questions-20-years-late/

Vicious attack on Pete Wishart and the mindless nonsense the SNP have been churning out for too long from someone who is instinctively very sympathetic. The need to address the real issues in Scotland and the Scottish economy has simply become too pressing to ignore.

David, unfortunately there are ZERO other options in Scotland. Tories and Labour are woeful , Lib Dems and Greens less than useless. SNP are the only show in town, but if they don't get a 2nd referendum sorted they will have more and more infighting.

Ironically, as we have discussed before Malcolm, all our parties have a common interest in rebuilding and developing the Scottish economy which is in a parlous state and forecast to fall even further behind the rest of the UK in the next few years with much slower growth. If the SNP focussed on building a country capable of standing on its own 2 feet for a decade independence could become a real possibility. But I agree with you that too many of their supporters are not that patient and want something now.

Angus Robertson's departure is another blow. The realist wing of the party is in retreat.

FF43

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

More simply if Ireland is seen as a relative success after Brexit, people in Scotland will say, we can do the same. The issues hypothetically facing a Scotland considering independence are the same as those actually facing Ireland right now.

To be clear, the example for Scotland is Southern Ireland, not Northern Ireland.

DecrepitJohnL

saddo said:

Broader view of Agent COB story. http://observer.com/2018/02/new-report-reveals-jeremy-corbyn-was-a-communist-spy-in-1980s/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Two meetings in the House of Commons -- hardly cloak and dagger. I'm no expert but first, Corbyn did not go to Cambridge; second, it is probably true the Czechs were sounding him out but where is there any evidence in the Czech archives of ongoing meetings or any further contact? Meeting in the Commons suggests he was a useful idiot, not a spy.

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

We have been told many times that the Leave vote had very little to do with economics - people, we are informed, knew that Brexit meant economic hardship, but they voted for it anyway. All the arguments made against Scottish independence in 2014 were made in favour of staying in the EU in 2016. This time Project Fear lost.

As Brexit increasingly becomes a project dictated by right wing English nationalists like Johnson and Rees Mogg, the opportunities for the SNP - which remains by far the most popular party in Scotland - may well increase. Should Labour not win the next general election, how many of the voters that the party won back from the SNP last year are going to stick with it?

It's the failures, pains and difficulties of Brexit that make Scottish Independence look less attractive. If Brexit succeeds, why not Scotland?

So it will be interesting to see what Scotland does in post Brexit Britain.

Philip_Thompson

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

More simply if Ireland is seen as a relative success after Brexit, people in Scotland will say, we can do the same. The issues hypothetically facing a Scotland considering independence are the same as those actually facing Ireland right now.

To be clear, the example for Scotland is Southern Ireland, not Northern Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland uses the Euro as its currency. What currency will an independent Scotland use?

TOPPING

TGOHF said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

They need to be inventive with stamp duty.

No stamp duty for first time buyers up to £500k+


Other tax incentives may be desirable.

Needs to be linked to a national insurance number or something to avoid abuse.

First time buyers up to £500k!!??

Dear god we are in a _lot_ of trouble.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/964439690907615232

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

Yet if referendum were won solely on economic sense then Remain would have won a landslide.

Sure, there are a significant minority in Scotland who think that Independence is more important than purely economic issues and that independence will give us more opportunities than we have as a region of the UK subservient to the London economy. These people are not going to change their views and they give the SNP a bedrock of support.

There is a clear and obvious overlap with that sort of thinking and that of many Brexiteers. But what 2014 established was that those who think that way in Scotland are not a majority and the economic arguments against Independence are much more compelling now than they were then.

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

We have been told many times that the Leave vote had very little to do with economics - people, we are informed, knew that Brexit meant economic hardship, but they voted for it anyway. All the arguments made against Scottish independence in 2014 were made in favour of staying in the EU in 2016. This time Project Fear lost.

As Brexit increasingly becomes a project dictated by right wing English nationalists like Johnson and Rees Mogg, the opportunities for the SNP - which remains by far the most popular party in Scotland - may well increase. Should Labour not win the next general election, how many of the voters that the party won back from the SNP last year are going to stick with it?

The next Holyrood election in 2021 is before the next general election is due in 2022 so on current polls there will be a Unionist majority at Holyrood in 2021 and a minority Labour government ironically dependent on SNP confidence and supply

AndyJS

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

The reason it was easy to buy a house in the 1970s and early 1980s was because the population of the country wasn't increasing.

Sean_F

TOPPING said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Except the first post Brexit election saw the SNP lose almost half their MPs

An early skirmish.

Would you judge the overall success of the Pacific/Asian campaign right after the fall of Singapore?

The fall of Singapore precipitated Japanese dominance of the Pacific/Asian region for years, Brexit has if anything reduced SNP dominance

Years? Within a year they were on the back foot, and just over 3 years they had surrendered.

February 1942 to August 1945 is 3 and a half years, so yes years

Almost like events like the Battle of Midway didn’t happen in your world.

Simultaneously attacking the US, China, and the British Empire was pretty hare-brained.

Only rivalled by Herr Hitler declaring war on America.

Max Hastings is pretty scathing about the Chinese war effort, but they still inflicted two million casualties on the Japanese.

(One version of) the old joke: two Chinese generals, one to the other - it's getting bad, we've lost 10,000 men while the Japanese have only lost 1,000. The other responds: pretty soon no more Japanese...

And, actually quite true. China could always take the casualties and keep fighting.

It's rather like the scene in Stephen Pressfield's novel, Tides of War, where the Athenians have sunk half the Spartan fleet in harbour. One appalled onlooker asks the Spartan commander "What do you call this?". "I call it what is. Victory." Despite winning, Athens suffered casualties they couldn't replace. Backed by Persian money, Sparta could hire a new fleet.

FF43

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

More simply if Ireland is seen as a relative success after Brexit, people in Scotland will say, we can do the same. The issues hypothetically facing a Scotland considering independence are the same as those actually facing Ireland right now.

To be clear, the example for Scotland is Southern Ireland, not Northern Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland uses the Euro as its currency. What currency will an independent Scotland use?

Ultimately the euro. Scotland would be in the unique position of applying for EU membership without having an established currency, so it's unclear whether it would go straight to the euro or run an interim Scottish currency first.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

You're missing the point of my article. If a solution is found for dealing with Northern Ireland to the satisfaction of all, that same solution will work for Scotland too.

I really don't think so. The Northern Irish economy is already much more integrated with the South than Scotland is with anywhere outside the UK. The sea border makes controlling immigration and trade to the mainland pretty straightforward even if NI has a "soft" and porous border with the Republic. I don't see how that can work in Scotland. If we joined the EU and had freedom of movement again how would England control its own immigration without a hard border?

The SNP's best hope is that the UK ends up with a FTA with the EU so that we still have the benefits of the SM. If that is achieved some but not all of the problems will recede, as they will in NI. The SNP leadership must be secretly cheering May on.

I see. So your preferred Northern Irish solution is to shaft the DUP.

I think the Northern Irish should be given a choice between being more integrated with the Republic and more integrated with rUK with a harder border. Its a tough choice for them but it is fatuous to pretend that they can have their cake and eat it (to coin a phrase). My guess is that they will go for the soft border with the republic.

SouthamObserver

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Brexit begeting Scottish Independence was one of the primary reasons I backed Remain.

Well you were wrong. Brexit actually makes Scottish independence far more complicated. Whatever one thought about the fantasy that a newly independent Scotland automatically becoming a member of the EU the fact is that the 2014 referendum took place with the UK in the Single Market. If the UK leaves the SM, as is likely Scotland has a choice. Either we remain in a Single Market with rUK, by far our biggest customer, or we go into a SM with the EU, a relatively modest market.

Only 1 of these solutions has any economic sense. If we remain in a SM with rUK, with the same currency, interest rates, monetary policy and, possibly, freedom of movement someone will have to explain to the majority of Scots why that would be worth the effort. It sure doesn't look like independence to me.

We have been told many times that the Leave vote had very little to do with economics - people, we are informed, knew that Brexit meant economic hardship, but they voted for it anyway. All the arguments made against Scottish independence in 2014 were made in favour of staying in the EU in 2016. This time Project Fear lost.

As Brexit increasingly becomes a project dictated by right wing English nationalists like Johnson and Rees Mogg, the opportunities for the SNP - which remains by far the most popular party in Scotland - may well increase. Should Labour not win the next general election, how many of the voters that the party won back from the SNP last year are going to stick with it?

It's the failures, pains and difficulties of Brexit that make Scottish Independence look less attractive. If Brexit succeeds, why not Scotland?

So it will be interesting to see what Scotland does in post Brexit Britain.

The Yes vote starts with 45%. It does not take a huge leap of imagination to believe that a Brexit dictated by right wing English nationalists like Rees Mogg and Johnson would push a few of the more left-inclined No voters in 2014 into the other column.

TGOHF

TOPPING said:

TGOHF said:

Elliot said:

This is what will destroy the Tories:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43075099

"The biggest decline in home ownership in the last 20 years has been among middle-income 25 to 34-year-olds, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said.

In 1995-96, 65% of this group owned a home, but just 27% do in 2015-16, with the biggest drop in south-east England."

The worst part of it for them is that it is spreading out in the home counties, where their core vote is. Right now they know they have the problem but don't seem to grasp just how much house building is needed to resolve it. Even status quo unaffordability will screw them. They need to actually surpass population growth to turn things round.

They need to be inventive with stamp duty.

No stamp duty for first time buyers up to £500k+


Other tax incentives may be desirable.

Needs to be linked to a national insurance number or something to avoid abuse.

First time buyers up to £500k!!??

Dear god we are in a _lot_ of trouble.

Stop clutching your pearls and visit the SE occasionally.

Lots of 30 somethings buying with their partners up to this sort of price.

saddo

DecrepitJohnL said:

saddo said:

Broader view of Agent COB story. http://observer.com/2018/02/new-report-reveals-jeremy-corbyn-was-a-communist-spy-in-1980s/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Two meetings in the House of Commons -- hardly cloak and dagger. I'm no expert but first, Corbyn did not go to Cambridge; second, it is probably true the Czechs were sounding him out but where is there any evidence in the Czech archives of ongoing meetings or any further contact? Meeting in the Commons suggests he was a useful idiot, not a spy.

He probably wasn't a spy in the traditional sense, almost certainly too far down the food chain to have any knowledge of value. It what it says about his judgement and morals that should count.

The irony is that at the time, his equivalents in Czechoslovakia would have been in prison camps or worse, as would all the momentum types.