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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A few assorted bets for your perusal

William Hill have a few markets on various events, a lot of these appear designed to enrich William Hill or ones that I wish William Hill offered the other side of the bet. I’d really like to bet on UK GDP growth to be lower than 1.8% one calendar year after Brexit.

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RobD

First

JosiasJessop

A very late second.

I see the topic turned to bridges and tunnels last night, and I was safely asleep in bed...

Pong

TM attempts to nail down Boris & co;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43021291

Charles

Pong said:

TM attempts to nail down Boris & co;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43021291

Surely haul him up the yardarm?

Mortimer

Pong said:

TM attempts to nail down Boris & co;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43021291

'But two prominent ministers who voted to remain - the chancellor and the home secretary - are not delivering speeches.'


Think we know who won the cabinet struggles then...

ydoethur

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

RobD

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

You might say the Tories' poll position is... strong and stable...

I'll get my coat.

ydoethur

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

You might May say the Tories' poll position is... strong and stable...

I'll get my coat.

Fixed it for you

Dura_Ace

ydoethur said:

What the hell is going on?

The spoils of the UKIP collapse are being divided by Con and Lab. Hannanite Robber Baron Capitalists and Faragite Blut und Eisen Nationalists have gone to Con while the white "working" class kippers have gone back to Lab in the hope and expectation that the bearded wonder will re-open the steelworks in their rain slicked grimeholes. ex-LibDem voters are at home gobbling benzodiazepine and not opening the curtains until Cable is gone.

ydoethur

Dura_Ace said:

ydoethur said:

What the hell is going on?

The spoils of the UKIP collapse are being divided by Con and Lab. Hannanite Robber Baron Capitalists and Faragite Blut und Eisen Nationalists have gone to Con while the white "working" class kippers have gone back to Lab in the hope and expectation that the bearded wonder will re-open the steelworks in their rain slicked grimeholes. ex-LibDem voters are at home gobbling benzodiazepine and not opening the curtains until Cable is gone.

Eisen's Corbyn's friend. Otherwise the rest seemed weirdly plausible for a moment.

IanB2

Less than 25/1 likely IMO

SouthamObserver

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

1. 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party led by someone who has spent 40 years backing every cause and regime - however brutal, cruel and despotic - that is anti-US, anti-UK and/or anti-Israel.
2. The far left takeover of Labour is beginning to be noticed.
3. The Labour leadership’s support for Brexit is beginning to be noted.
This is the worst government in living memory. But the alternative is no better. It’s as simple as that.

TheJezziah

I think Labour only got about 19% of the UKIP vote, probably generally left wing economic types (along lines Dura mentioned) or somewhat anti establishment.

JosiasJessop

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

1. 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party led by someone who has spent 40 years backing every cause and regime - however brutal, cruel and despotic - that is anti-US, anti-UK and/or anti-Israel.
2. The far left takeover of Labour is beginning to be noticed.
3. The Labour leadership’s support for Brexit is beginning to be noted.
This is the worst government in living memory. But the alternative is no better. It’s as simple as that.

"This is the worst government in living memory."

Nah, that was 2005-10. Firstly Brown and his evil henchmen undermining their own leader and other potential rivals at either turn, followed by Brown's own incompetent leadership. It grabs the top spot because it was all so unnecessary - it was all about Brown (and Balls') ambition, not outside factors (and to be fair, he sometimes reacted well to outside factors).

Secondly, Major's 1992-7. A government that was actively being undermined by the bastards, but also influenced heavily by outside factors.

We'll have to wait to see how the 2017-???? government lines up against those two.

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

ydoethur

On topic, the problem is not and never has been Gove's vision. It's the cack-handed, inept and irresponsible way he implements that vision that's the problem. His education reforms were excellent ideas in and of themselves but in relying too heavily on advice from the one totally corrupt and inept vested interest with zero interest in the actual education of children - the Department for Education - they turned into total fiascos.

Since JRM also has no administrative experience a Mogg/Gove team far from complementing each other would highlight and exacerbate each other's weaknesses. If Mogg got the backing of Hammond or Rudd, that is when he would be dangerous, and that is simply not going to happen.

TheJezziah

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.
..........................................

Considering the Daily Mail are a big fan of hers let me just say thank god for Brexit. Authoritarian, bleak and miserable... at least that is how I imagine it...

ydoethur

JosiasJessop said:

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

Non-existent. Cameron would still be in place and while Osborne was no certainty to succeed him May would have been seen as too old.

May is like Douglas-Home - you spend time wondering how much better Butler would have been for the country, the Conservatives and indeed for Labour.

JosiasJessop

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

Non-existent. Cameron would still be in place and while Osborne was no certainty to succeed him May would have been seen as too old.

May is like Douglas-Home - you spend time wondering how much better Butler would have been for the country, the Conservatives and indeed for Labour.

I was imagining a situation where, by some miracle, she was. I agree if Remain had won the referendum then she wouldn't be PM.

But that's another interesting what-if: if remain had won, I think the Conservative Party would be in a worse state than it is now. The Eurosceptic bastards would be in full flow, and UKIP riding high.

CarlottaVance

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/962457944855056384?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1

CarlottaVance

It is possible to implement a Customs and Border solution that meets the requirements of the EU Customs legislation (Union Customs Code) and procedures, with expected post-Brexit volumes of cross-border people and goods, if using a combination of international standards, global best practices and state-of-the-art technology upgraded to a Smart Border 2.0 or similar solution.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/962567317426245632?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1

TheJezziah

Can't speak for all Labour members but I'm fairly happy to be in a holding position for the moment. A couple of years ago Labour looked to be in crisis with electoral threats from the left and right and the SNP taking a lot of previously very safe seats. When the election was called a little under a year ago people were predicting huge losses for Labour.

Now it is a crisis because we are not storming ahead in the polls. Can't say I am unhappy with that progression.

ydoethur

TheJezziah said:

Can't speak for all Labour members but I'm fairly happy to be in a holding position for the moment. A couple of years ago Labour looked to be in crisis with electoral threats from the left and right and the SNP taking a lot of previously very safe seats. When the election was called a little under a year ago people were predicting huge losses for Labour.

Now it is a crisis because we are not storming ahead in the polls. Can't say I am unhappy with that progression.

Well, you should be. The current position you are in is where you should have been in about November 2016. However, since then the situation has dramatically worsened for your opponents and you still can't move ahead of them.

Doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence that you ever will. I mentioned Butler, but I'm starting to think Corbyn is Labour's Derby - always loyally supported by the adoring grassroots but never actually able to get and keep power.

Edit - you may find this of interest:

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/for-theresa-may-things-can-only-get-worse-so-why-cant-labour-pull-ahead-in-the-polls

JosiasJessop

TheJezziah said:

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.
..........................................

Considering the Daily Mail are a big fan of hers let me just say thank god for Brexit. Authoritarian, bleak and miserable... at least that is how I imagine it...

I think you need to look at her time as Home Secretary. She survived in that job - which is not the easiest job in government - for an unprecedented period of time, and was largely invisible.

Without Brexit, I think her government would be the same: they'd just get on with the job. Nothing shiny, nothing brilliant, but neither would it be catastrophic.

But... Brexit.

SouthamObserver

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

1. 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party led by someone who has spent 40 years backing every cause and regime - however brutal, cruel and despotic - that is anti-US, anti-UK and/or anti-Israel.
2. The far left takeover of Labour is beginning to be noticed.
3. The Labour leadership’s support for Brexit is beginning to be noted.
This is the worst government in living memory. But the alternative is no better. It’s as simple as that.

"This is the worst government in living memory."

Nah, that was 2005-10. Firstly Brown and his evil henchmen undermining their own leader and other potential rivals at either turn, followed by Brown's own incompetent leadership. It grabs the top spot because it was all so unnecessary - it was all about Brown (and Balls') ambition, not outside factors (and to be fair, he sometimes reacted well to outside factors).

Secondly, Major's 1992-7. A government that was actively being undermined by the bastards, but also influenced heavily by outside factors.

We'll have to wait to see how the 2017-???? government lines up against those two.

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

When faced with an existential threat to the UK’s well-being, the Brown government took decisive action. The current one argues with itself.

SouthamObserver

TheJezziah said:

Can't speak for all Labour members but I'm fairly happy to be in a holding position for the moment. A couple of years ago Labour looked to be in crisis with electoral threats from the left and right and the SNP taking a lot of previously very safe seats. When the election was called a little under a year ago people were predicting huge losses for Labour.

Now it is a crisis because we are not storming ahead in the polls. Can't say I am unhappy with that progression.

When you start from a point of guaranteeing your opponent gets 40% of the vote because so much of the electorate distrusts and dislikes your leader, then it does not take much more to get into a losing position. And that’s where Labour is now.

TheJezziah

I wasn't expecting Corbyn to work miracles, he has though surpassed my expectations of him to date, almost everyone else's as well. In November 2016 we were only a few months out from the destructive coup attempt that harmed Labour quite badly, the fact we have recovered so well from that is pretty impressive.

Given all the progression that has been made in what has been very difficult circumstances it would seem silly to throw all that away on some idea that we should be storming the polls right now.

Plenty of wise people would have suggested a similar approach before the election as we were going to get stuffed anyway, they were wrong then and given the evidence of Labours progression I don't see why a sensible approach would risk that and listen to them now.

Edit: just seen link reading it now.

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

1. 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party led by someone who has spent 40 years backing every cause and regime - however brutal, cruel and despotic - that is anti-US, anti-UK and/or anti-Israel.
2. The far left takeover of Labour is beginning to be noticed.
3. The Labour leadership’s support for Brexit is beginning to be noted.
This is the worst government in living memory. But the alternative is no better. It’s as simple as that.

"This is the worst government in living memory."

Nah, that was 2005-10. Firstly Brown and his evil henchmen undermining their own leader and other potential rivals at either turn, followed by Brown's own incompetent leadership. It grabs the top spot because it was all so unnecessary - it was all about Brown (and Balls') ambition, not outside factors (and to be fair, he sometimes reacted well to outside factors).

Secondly, Major's 1992-7. A government that was actively being undermined by the bastards, but also influenced heavily by outside factors.

We'll have to wait to see how the 2017-???? government lines up against those two.

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

When faced with an existential threat to the UK’s well-being, the Brown government belatedly took decisive emergency action. The current one argues with itself.

I hope you'll excuse me altering your post, but I really don't think the Brown government came out of the banking crisis well. At the last moment it managed to stave off total collapse, but its poor regulation, inadequate enforcement of said poor regulation, and dithering over Northern Rock contributed massively to the crisis in the first place.

(That is not to forget the ultimate shock was from Lehmanns, and that that was certainly not Brown's fault, but even then there was much dithering by the UK Treasury over whether we should try and help rescue it or not.)

TGOHF

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

1. 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party led by someone who has spent 40 years backing every cause and regime - however brutal, cruel and despotic - that is anti-US, anti-UK and/or anti-Israel.
2. The far left takeover of Labour is beginning to be noticed.
3. The Labour leadership’s support for Brexit is beginning to be noted.
This is the worst government in living memory. But the alternative is no better. It’s as simple as that.

"This is the worst government in living memory."

Nah, that was 2005-10. Firstly Brown and his evil henchmen undermining their own leader and other potential rivals at either turn, followed by Brown's own incompetent leadership. It grabs the top spot because it was all so unnecessary - it was all about Brown (and Balls') ambition, not outside factors (and to be fair, he sometimes reacted well to outside factors).

Secondly, Major's 1992-7. A government that was actively being undermined by the bastards, but also influenced heavily by outside factors.

We'll have to wait to see how the 2017-???? government lines up against those two.

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

When faced with an existential threat to the UK’s well-being, the Brown government took decisive action. The current one argues with itself.

By decisive action you mean spend like crazy , pretend there will never be a bust then once it does goe tits up on his watch double down the spending and saddle the next generation with humugus debts ?

Brown was worst PM ever.

ydoethur

TheJezziah said:

I wasn't expecting Corbyn to work miracles, he has though surpassed my expectations of him to date, almost everyone else's as well. In November 2016 we were only a few months out from the destructive coup attempt that harmed Labour quite badly, the fact we have recovered so well from that is pretty impressive.

The 'destructive coup attempt' stemmed from Corbyn being less highly regarded in the PLP than Iain Duncan Smith (four-fifths rather than 60% having no confidence in him). You may blame the EU referendum, but there were other factors - his rudeness, incompetence, the hiring of significant numbers of much hated people (Milne) the laziness of his media operation and his constant threats to them that he would get rid of them. That is not the way to run a party. The real indictment of Labour frankly was that only a mediocrity like Smith had the intestinal fortitude to stand against him.

I have to go. Have a good morning.

TGOHF

ydoethur said:

On topic, the problem is not and never has been Gove's vision. It's the cack-handed, inept and irresponsible way he implements that vision that's the problem. His education reforms were excellent ideas in and of themselves but in relying too heavily on advice from the one totally corrupt and inept vested interest with zero interest in the actual education of children - the Department for Education - they turned into total fiascos.

Since JRM also has no administrative experience a Mogg/Gove team far from complementing each other would highlight and exacerbate each other's weaknesses. If Mogg got the backing of Hammond or Rudd, that is when he would be dangerous, and that is simply not going to happen.

Did Gove not get his reforms through quickly by ignoring and bypassing the DoE ? Certainly Cummings has written that was the case.

Perhaps why Gove so unpopular with civil servants and other education establishment types.

SouthamObserver

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

1. 40% of the electorate will never vote for a party led by someone who has spent 40 years backing every cause and regime - however brutal, cruel and despotic - that is anti-US, anti-UK and/or anti-Israel.
2. The far left takeover of Labour is beginning to be noticed.
3. The Labour leadership’s support for Brexit is beginning to be noted.
This is the worst government in living memory. But the alternative is no better. It’s as simple as that.

"This is the worst government in living memory."

Nah, that was 2005-10. Firstly Brown and his evil henchmen undermining their own leader and other potential rivals at either turn, followed by Brown's own incompetent leadership. It grabs the top spot because it was all so unnecessary - it was all about Brown (and Balls') ambition, not outside factors (and to be fair, he sometimes reacted well to outside factors).

Secondly, Major's 1992-7. A government that was actively being undermined by the bastards, but also influenced heavily by outside factors.

We'll have to wait to see how the 2017-???? government lines up against those two.

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

When faced with an existential threat to the UK’s well-being, the Brown government took decisive action. The current one argues with itself.

By decisive action you mean spend like crazy , pretend there will never be a bust then once it does goe tits up on his watch double down the spending and saddle the next generation with humugus debts ?

Brown was worst PM ever.

No, I mean take action to stave off global financial collapse. Thank God it was Brown, Balls and Darling in charge when the crash came, not Cameron, Osborne or May. But I agree that overall Brown was a poor PM, surpassed only by the last two incumbents.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

The Gove bet looks most interesting to me. The 4/7 seems probable, but not too tempted by the 7/4.

On my own side, two of my three rugby bets failed yesterday. Mildly miffed by the second half to outscore the first. When England and Wales only mustered 15 points in the first half I thought it was looking good, but only 3 were scored in the whole second half.

If France beat Scotland I'll be more or less evens. If not, I'll be down three (dinky) stakes. Will Scotland let me down again? We'll find out later.

JosiasJessop

SouthamObserver said:

When faced with an existential threat to the UK’s well-being, the Brown government took decisive action. The current one argues with itself.

I disagree about Brown and the financial crisis. He was not as bad as some paint, but neither was he very good. Especially as his own desire for the top job led him to spend like crazy, making the crash, when it came, much worse than it needed to be. And we're still trying to recover from his spendthrift ways.

But the main point was that the vast majority of Labour's problems in 2005-10 were down to Brown and his team. Balls, McBride, Watson were all busy undermining their own side for their own personal ends, hence Darling's 'forces of hell' comment. It makes running a government much more difficult.

I have some sympathy when the arguments within a government are philosophical - e.g. the EU debates. Decent (and sadly some far from decent) people on either side of the argument passionately believe their way is right.

But Brown's government wasn't about that. It was about the job prospects of himself and his team.

I reckon he would have made a brilliant foreign secretary. He made a poor chancellor, and a terrible PM. And most of that was due to his own character flaws.

Metatron

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

When faced with an existential threat to the UK’s well-being, the Brown government took decisive action. The current one argues with itself.

I disagree about Brown and the financial crisis. He was not as bad as some paint, but neither was he very good. Especially as his own desire for the top job led him to spend like crazy, making the crash, when it came, much worse than it needed to be. And we're still trying to recover from his spendthrift ways.

But the main point was that the vast majority of Labour's problems in 2005-10 were down to Brown and his team. Balls, McBride, Watson were all busy undermining their own side for their own personal ends, hence Darling's 'forces of hell' comment. It makes running a government much more difficult.

I have some sympathy when the arguments within a government are philosophical - e.g. the EU debates. Decent (and sadly some far from decent) people on either side of the argument passionately believe their way is right.

But Brown's government wasn't about that. It was about the job prospects of himself and his team.

I reckon he would have made a brilliant foreign secretary. He made a poor chancellor, and a terrible PM. And most of that was due to his own character flaws.

Brown would not have made a good foreign secretary he was like May socially arkward.
Brown might have made a very good Education,Health,Local Govt or Transport secretary

CD13

Mr Observer,

Reading Darling's autobiography on the crash, it appears Brown was asleep when the main action took place.

Obviously Darling comes out of it well, but the "forces of hell" incident are well-documented. Brown was portrayed by his own Chancellor as being obsessed only with his own survival.

Metatron

JosiasJessop said:

TheJezziah said:

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.
..........................................

Considering the Daily Mail are a big fan of hers let me just say thank god for Brexit. Authoritarian, bleak and miserable... at least that is how I imagine it...

I think you need to look at her time as Home Secretary. She survived in that job - which is not the easiest job in government - for an unprecedented period of time, and was largely invisible.

Without Brexit, I think her government would be the same: they'd just get on with the job. Nothing shiny, nothing brilliant, but neither would it be catastrophic.

But... Brexit.

May`s Home Office record will not look good from any long term perspective and neither will her record as PM

JosiasJessop

Metatron said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

When faced with an existential threat to the UK’s well-being, the Brown government took decisive action. The current one argues with itself.

I disagree about Brown and the financial crisis. He was not as bad as some paint, but neither was he very good. Especially as his own desire for the top job led him to spend like crazy, making the crash, when it came, much worse than it needed to be. And we're still trying to recover from his spendthrift ways.

But the main point was that the vast majority of Labour's problems in 2005-10 were down to Brown and his team. Balls, McBride, Watson were all busy undermining their own side for their own personal ends, hence Darling's 'forces of hell' comment. It makes running a government much more difficult.

I have some sympathy when the arguments within a government are philosophical - e.g. the EU debates. Decent (and sadly some far from decent) people on either side of the argument passionately believe their way is right.

But Brown's government wasn't about that. It was about the job prospects of himself and his team.

I reckon he would have made a brilliant foreign secretary. He made a poor chancellor, and a terrible PM. And most of that was due to his own character flaws.

Brown would not have made a good foreign secretary he was like May socially arkward.
Brown might have made a very good Education,Health,Local Govt or Transport secretary

But if you read books like Seldon's 'Brown at 10', it's clear that foreign policy - and especially foreign aid - was one of Brown's absolute passions, and had been from when he was a child. After re-reading it a few months ago I went back to listen to some of his speeches, and it's true - he came alive during speeches about it.

JosiasJessop

Metatron said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheJezziah said:

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.
..........................................

Considering the Daily Mail are a big fan of hers let me just say thank god for Brexit. Authoritarian, bleak and miserable... at least that is how I imagine it...

I think you need to look at her time as Home Secretary. She survived in that job - which is not the easiest job in government - for an unprecedented period of time, and was largely invisible.

Without Brexit, I think her government would be the same: they'd just get on with the job. Nothing shiny, nothing brilliant, but neither would it be catastrophic.

But... Brexit.

May`s Home Office record will not look good from any long term perspective and neither will her record as PM

Quite possibly. But we'll have to wait to see.

TheWhiteRabbit

Just a health warning: I can't see that Hills have declared their rules for the US Senate. Based on the odds, I assume the Independents are included (which is the case for most traditional bookmakers) but if they aren't it's way too short.

TheJezziah

ydoethur said:

TheJezziah said:

I wasn't expecting Corbyn to work miracles, he has though surpassed my expectations of him to date, almost everyone else's as well. In November 2016 we were only a few months out from the destructive coup attempt that harmed Labour quite badly, the fact we have recovered so well from that is pretty impressive.

The 'destructive coup attempt' stemmed from Corbyn being less highly regarded in the PLP than Iain Duncan Smith (four-fifths rather than 60% having no confidence in him). You may blame the EU referendum, but there were other factors - his rudeness, incompetence, the hiring of significant numbers of much hated people (Milne) the laziness of his media operation and his constant threats to them that he would get rid of them. That is not the way to run a party. The real indictment of Labour frankly was that only a mediocrity like Smith had the intestinal fortitude to stand against him.

I have to go. Have a good morning.

Whether the MPs were right to tell the members they were wrong in their overwhelming choice for leader only recently is another matter, or whether we should bother with democracy at all...

But whether it was right to do or not it was still a destructive action which harmed Labour and gave us an even tougher job at the election and since.

I do have to pick out some faults with your article...

.........................................................
For the party not even to be aware of its failings and of the widespread distrust of its leader is a betrayal of the people who Labour ought to be representing.
.......................................................

Let me guess, rather than a working class person like me...

.......................................................
In the part of London where I live, the sitting Labour MP Meg Hillier won a majority of 38,000 at last year’s general election. In the borough of Hackney, which includes her constituency, almost four out of five voters supported Remain in the referendum.

It was on that issue, and because of her opposition to triggering Article 50, that I publicly backed her. In policy terms, Labour is out of step with these voters.
.....................................................

A wealthy person like him.

Labour have abandoned their roots by no longer representing wealthy times writers living in London but working class people in the Valleys instead...

Enjoy your day Ydoethur, even if we disagree no harm meant.

TheWhiteRabbit

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

Labour have a year to turn this around.

Otherwise, they will drift inexorably to, at best, a replay of 2017.

CarlottaVance

Another one who didn’t get the memo:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/michel-barnier-brexit-david-davis-customs-union-norway-turkey-a8204206.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Recidivist

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

It's interesting to think what a May government might be like if it was not for the all-consuming Brexit.

Non-existent. Cameron would still be in place and while Osborne was no certainty to succeed him May would have been seen as too old.

May is like Douglas-Home - you spend time wondering how much better Butler would have been for the country, the Conservatives and indeed for Labour.

I was imagining a situation where, by some miracle, she was. I agree if Remain had won the referendum then she wouldn't be PM.

But that's another interesting what-if: if remain had won, I think the Conservative Party would be in a worse state than it is now. The Eurosceptic bastards would be in full flow, and UKIP riding high.

I don't agree. I think UKIP would be exactly where they are now though maybe hanging on to a bit more of their northern working class support, which was in any case always exaggerated. Labour would be soul searching in the low twenties and Cameron would be master of all he surveys. Conservative leaning voters would have followed their party's lead and come around behind staying.

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

Another one who didn’t get the memo:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/michel-barnier-brexit-david-davis-customs-union-norway-turkey-a8204206.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

There are clearly solutions, but the problem with the approach suggested in the article is that the government has ruled out any kind of customs union for goods because the Brexit loons will not buy it.

stjohn

My thoughts.

1. May either will or will not come up with a Brexit plan that is acceptable to ERG.

2. If not acceptable they will seek to topple her and trigger a confidence vote.

3. If May loses the confidence vote then it is very possible that her successor would be in favour of a hard Brexit and would be willing to accept a no deal Brexit.

4. The majority of Tory MPs do not want a hard Brexit and don’t want to risk a no deal Brexit.

5. Therefore a majority of Tory MPs would support May in a confidence vote.

6. May will continue to lead the party until a Brexit deal is agreed.

TheJezziah

SouthamObserver said:

When you start from a point of guaranteeing your opponent gets 40% of the vote because so much of the electorate distrusts and dislikes your leader, then it does not take much more to get into a losing position. And that’s where Labour is now.

Much of the Tory vote was for various reasons, considering they got about 43% it seems unlikely that 40% is guaranteed because of Corbyn. Probably more Brexit related votes in there than anti Corbyn votes.

..............................................
I think you need to look at her time as Home Secretary. She survived in that job - which is not the easiest job in government - for an unprecedented period of time, and was largely invisible.

Without Brexit, I think her government would be the same: they'd just get on with the job. Nothing shiny, nothing brilliant, but neither would it be catastrophic.
................................................

Probably right to be honest, I'm letting my negative view shape my assessment.

Foxy

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

Labour have a year to turn this around.

Otherwise, they will drift inexorably to, at best, a replay of 2017.

A few points is MoE, and it is not a time when another election is on the cards, so the vast majority of the muggles out there in non-PB land are switched off. We may get some indications from the May Local elections but until then? Meh. I expect Vince to go this autumn after a poor Locals and worse anti-Brexit campaign. Not sure who gets the poisoned chalice next.

Is this the worst government and opposition ever? It is a pretty crowded field, and many other contenders!

Ultimately though the problem is that people want easy pain free solutions to complex problems. Brexit is no answer to the problems of globalisation, indeed likely to make it worse. Corbynism is no answer to the problems of the welfare state in times of demographic change, indeed likely to make things worse.

We are not alone in the world in the uselessness of our politicians, just look at the USA, Germany, Italy, etc etc. The issues are worldwide and few seem to have the answers, probably because there are no easy ones.

tlg86

The Andrew Marr show is morphing into Jeremy Kyle. They should bring in his mistress and then bring in his wife.

CarlottaVance

stjohn said:

My thoughts.

1. May either will or will not come up with a Brexit plan that is acceptable to ERG.

2. If not acceptable they will seek to topple her and trigger a confidence vote.

3. If May loses the confidence vote then it is very possible that her successor would be in favour of a hard Brexit and would be willing to accept a no deal Brexit.

4. The majority of Tory MPs do not want a hard Brexit and don’t want to risk a no deal Brexit.

5. Therefore a majority of Tory MPs would support May in a confidence vote.

6. May will continue to lead the party until a Brexit deal is agreed.

+1

CarlottaVance

Sir John:

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/962605976133218306?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1

TheJezziah

The opposition have defeated the government a few times and forced them to change approach, in the election they also helped drive up engagement among younger voters. Admittedly pre election I have criticisms for a large section of the opposition but since the election I imagine peoples criticisms are ideological rather than results based.

As for the current May government I couldn't say a lot in their favour but it was Cameron who dumped this mess on her unprepared. She's handled it badly but I'd criticise him more for setting up this situation, he was better at elections though.

Edit: As for above article that's why I'm happy for the Tories to do the Brexit negotiations and have an election after, also leaves them to take any criticism for the outcome.

CarlottaVance

Foxy said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

Labour have a year to turn this around.

Otherwise, they will drift inexorably to, at best, a replay of 2017.

We are not alone in the world in the uselessness of our politicians, just look at the USA, Germany, Italy, etc etc. The issues are worldwide and few seem to have the answers, probably because there are no easy ones.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/962585803355557889?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/962585190156652544?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1

geoffw

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

Jonathan

The chukka soubry party United.

houndtang

Seems to me the Tories actually need a Lib Dem revival to draw off votes from Labour. Their own vote IS strong and stable but as long as Labour remains around 40% no one can win a majority. And Labour can't pull away because they are dire, despite the ludicrous narrative that Corb is a political genius now.

SouthamObserver

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

So you believe Project Fear was actually Project Fact.

Jonathan

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

How much poorer did you vote to be? Perhaps you'll do the decent thing and compensate those whose pockets you intend to pick.

maaarsh

Jonathan said:

The chukka soubry party United.

Yes, that was a marvelous advert for centrist politics...

rkrkrk

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

Perhaps Chukka could call the electorate petulant children?

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

So you believe Project Fear was actually Project Fact.

Project Massively Overblown Because They Didn't Have Any Other Persuasive Arguments

rottenborough

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

There are two groupings within Leave voters though presumably. One group ignored Project Fear and voted to leave because they thought the economic warnings were basically a pack of lies cooked up by Osborne and co to scare them off. The 2nd group ignored Project Fear because they accepted the warnings were probably broadly accurate but did not care: as sovereignty, migration control, social cohension etc etc were far more important to them.

Big_G_NorthWales

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

rkrkrk

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

There are two groupings within Leave voters though presumably. One group ignored Project Fear and voted to leave because they thought the economic warnings were basically a pack of lies cooked up by Osborne and co to scare them off. The 2nd group ignored Project Fear because they accepted the warnings were probably broadly accurate but did not care: as sovereignty, migration control, social cohension etc etc were far more important to them.

I suspect there were a much larger group in the middle who said, yeah there might be a bit of economic damage but it won’t be as bad as they say...

FF43

CarlottaVance said:

Another one who didn’t get the memo:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/michel-barnier-brexit-david-davis-customs-union-norway-turkey-a8204206.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

He's missing the point about customs unions when he talks about ways to minimize some of the extra red tape. Brexiteers have made customs union into a totem when it is a utilitarian decision. There are no issues of sovereignty. No-one cares whether we apply a 2% tariff on Peruvian guano or a 3% one. The question is how much are we likely to diverge in our tariffs from the EU ones? If not much, standardisation brings considerable benefits. A reduction in the guano tariff isn't going to unlock a whole lot more trade, but being in a customs union with the EU could make the difference to whether Nissan stays in Sunderland. Any degradation in our third party trade has a lot more to do with leaving the European Union than being in a customs union.

TheWhiteRabbit

Foxy said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

Labour have a year to turn this around.

Otherwise, they will drift inexorably to, at best, a replay of 2017.

A few points is MoE, and it is not a time when another election is on the cards, so the vast majority of the muggles out there in non-PB land are switched off. We may get some indications from the May Local elections but until then? Meh. I expect Vince to go this autumn after a poor Locals and worse anti-Brexit campaign. Not sure who gets the poisoned chalice next.

Is this the worst government and opposition ever? It is a pretty crowded field, and many other contenders!

Ultimately though the problem is that people want easy pain free solutions to complex problems. Brexit is no answer to the problems of globalisation, indeed likely to make it worse. Corbynism is no answer to the problems of the welfare state in times of demographic change, indeed likely to make things worse.

We are not alone in the world in the uselessness of our politicians, just look at the USA, Germany, Italy, etc etc. The issues are worldwide and few seem to have the answers, probably because there are no easy ones.

I think the population has largely internalised the fact that, you know, Brexit is pretty f****** difficult.

TheWhiteRabbit

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

So you believe Project Fear was actually Project Fact.

Project Massively Overblown Because They Didn't Have Any Other Persuasive Arguments

Project Probably Some Truth in There Somewhere Buried Among the Hyperbole

williamglenn

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Her face is a lot less expressive than it used to be.

TheScreamingEagles

Hardline Eurosceptics, however, are unnerved by Barnier’s bullishness and privately warning May that she needs to back them, not those advocating a soft Brexit. “It’s allowing the EU to unleash hell on us,” one MP claimed.

Their mood was not brightened by a meeting between Brexiteers, led by former minister David Jones and the Tory chief whip, Julian Smith, last week. Smith pointed out they have already had much of what they want and should brace “to be disappointed” in future....

....The standard bearer of the hardliners, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has privately told colleagues he would be a lot more relaxed “if we knew what we were transitioning to”. In extremis, this mistrust manifests itself in threats to oust May by submitting letters to the backbench 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence. “We’ve made our position clear to the prime minister,” said one Eurosceptic. “If she lets us down, the letters will go in.”

The suspicion felt by the group, cruelly dubbed “Mogglodytes” by opponents, extends even to Brexit-backing cabinet ministers. In Thursday’s meeting it appeared as if Michael Gove, the environment secretary, and others were prepared to remain in regulatory alignment into the future on cars, aviation and chemicals. “They’re heading for alignment on industrial goods,” a source familiar with the discussions confirmed.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/besieged-may-pressed-to-put-some-brexit-meat-on-the-cabinet-table-33snfj5p0

Jonathan

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Her face is a lot less expressive than it used to be.

She's been to cabinet . The things that she's seen will mess with your mind.

geoffw

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

There are two groupings within Leave voters though presumably. One group ignored Project Fear and voted to leave because they thought the economic warnings were basically a pack of lies cooked up by Osborne and co to scare them off. The 2nd group ignored Project Fear because they accepted the warnings were probably broadly accurate but did not care: as sovereignty, migration control, social cohension etc etc were far more important to them.

I thought it a mixture of the two.

JackW

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

If she stands I think she’ll make a cock of herself.

kle4

rkrkrk said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

There are two groupings within Leave voters though presumably. One group ignored Project Fear and voted to leave because they thought the economic warnings were basically a pack of lies cooked up by Osborne and co to scare them off. The 2nd group ignored Project Fear because they accepted the warnings were probably broadly accurate but did not care: as sovereignty, migration control, social cohension etc etc were far more important to them.

I suspect there were a much larger group in the middle who said, yeah there might be a bit of economic damage but it won’t be as bad as they say...

For some any cost would be worth doing it. Others had a cost at which it wouldn't, but right or wrong felt that cost would not happen.

williamglenn

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

MarqueeMark

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

So the training she has had seems to be paying off....

Big_G_NorthWales

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

+1

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

You are not the arbiter for who is in the conservative party

JackW

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

AlastairMeeks

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

If she stands I think she’ll make a cock of herself.

How much have you laid on that position?

JackW

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

Find me a politician who hasn't lied and I'll show you a liar.

Ishmael_Z

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

Yeah right. Erdogan, Merkel and Verhofstadt have conducted themselves as if they firmly believed that Turkey was in line to join the EU, prior to the countercoup of 2016. Whom to believe, them or you, is about the least testing question I have faced this millennium.

But perhaps that was a charade to fool the little people, and you and your fellow Bilderbergers are laughing yourselves silly about how the little people fall for it.

Morris_Dancer

Marvellous. Another power cut.

AlastairMeeks

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

Find me a politicians who hasn't lied and I'll show you a liar.

She would be a brilliant recruiting agent for Remainers For Labour. Her spectacular public dishonesty on the dividing line of the age would ensure that the Conservatives would be stuck in the Brexit mud still longer.

Jonathan

Making a cock of yourself and fibbing is a core qualification for any political leader .

The_Apocalypse

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/962457944855056384?ref_src=twcamp^share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^1

Wasn’t this the guy who had to literally eat a piece of paper live on tv because he’d got the GE wrong?

I don’t think the rules of the past as to what ‘should’ happen necessarily apply anymore. TMay shouldn’t have lost a 20 point lead; a government in this state shouldn’t be on 40%, a party as far left as Corbyn’s Labour shouldn’t be on 40%, Labour shouldn’t have closed such a large gap back in June.

MarqueeMark

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

Find me a politician who hasn't lied and I'll show you a liar.

Were you ever a politician, Jack?

williamglenn

John McDonnell attacks Alastair Campbell for "macho, threatening politics"...

FF43

rkrkrk said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

Chuka: "nobody voted to be poorer". Well I did. And so did 17,410,741 others.
We were told time and again by the illuminati of project fear that is what would happen, and still we voted out.
Chuka needs to reflect more carefully on the result.

There are two groupings within Leave voters though presumably. One group ignored Project Fear and voted to leave because they thought the economic warnings were basically a pack of lies cooked up by Osborne and co to scare them off. The 2nd group ignored Project Fear because they accepted the warnings were probably broadly accurate but did not care: as sovereignty, migration control, social cohension etc etc were far more important to them.

I suspect there were a much larger group in the middle who said, yeah there might be a bit of economic damage but it won’t be as bad as they say...

Opinion polls tell us very clearly that almost all Leave voters thought and still think Brexit will make no difference to the economy, or will.improve it. Remainers think the exact opposite. Both groups may be projecting backwards from their prejudices. My theory is that Remainers are doing that less than leavers, although some certainly are.

The_Apocalypse

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Foxy said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

Labour have a year to turn this around.

Otherwise, they will drift inexorably to, at best, a replay of 2017.

A few points is MoE, and it is not a time when another election is on the cards, so the vast majority of the muggles out there in non-PB land are switched off. We may get some indications from the May Local elections but until then? Meh. I expect Vince to go this autumn after a poor Locals and worse anti-Brexit campaign. Not sure who gets the poisoned chalice next.

Is this the worst government and opposition ever? It is a pretty crowded field, and many other contenders!

Ultimately though the problem is that people want easy pain free solutions to complex problems. Brexit is no answer to the problems of globalisation, indeed likely to make it worse. Corbynism is no answer to the problems of the welfare state in times of demographic change, indeed likely to make things worse.

We are not alone in the world in the uselessness of our politicians, just look at the USA, Germany, Italy, etc etc. The issues are worldwide and few seem to have the answers, probably because there are no easy ones.

I think the population has largely internalised the fact that, you know, Brexit is pretty f****** difficult.

I think that most people just don’t care about the process of it, and are sick of hearing about it. The technicalities of Brexit are boring to most, and most people do not obsessively follow politics and over analyse absolutely everything.

MarqueeMark

The huge failure of May's "reshuffle" was that the likes of Mordaunt and Mercer were not elevated to the roles of senior politicians, to be given a chance to shine or sink - and if shine, then be offered to the membership in the next leadership election. That would have been the wise thing to do, both for the country and the party.

Instead, she felt so insecure that she couldn't risk having them look better than her. Which, worryingly, is rather consistent with someone planning to go "on and on".....

Morris_Dancer

Ms. Apocalypse, I agree with that but would add that saturation coverage coupled with generally poor reporting doesn't help matters much.

JackW

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

Find me a politicians who hasn't lied and I'll show you a liar.

She would be a brilliant recruiting agent for Remainers For Labour. Her spectacular public dishonesty on the dividing line of the age would ensure that the Conservatives would be stuck in the Brexit mud still longer.

We love you dearly young Alastair but your implicit position that Brexiteers cornered the market in Euro referendum dishonesty is risible.

The Conservatives are presently engaged in their ritual European bloodletting and a dizzying level of spectacular BREXIT incompetence. Nevertheless they remain the government of the day and most recently have edged ahead in the polls. They have not become the most successful political party of the age because they are the stupid party all of the time.

Andrew

ydoethur said:

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

My guess is the post-election polling gave Labour a temporary glow - people were drawn to the air of positivity and success that comes from having a "good election". Over time it inevitably fades, and we're basically back to the election result of Tories +2.5%.

JackW

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

Find me a politician who hasn't lied and I'll show you a liar.

Were you ever a politician, Jack?

I cannot tell a lie ....

AlastairMeeks

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

Find me a politicians who hasn't lied and I'll show you a liar.

She would be a brilliant recruiting agent for Remainers For Labour. Her spectacular public dishonesty on the dividing line of the age would ensure that the Conservatives would be stuck in the Brexit mud still longer.

We love you dearly young Alastair but your implicit position that Brexiteers cornered the market in Euro referendum dishonesty is risible.

The Conservatives are presently engaged in their ritual European bloodletting and a dizzying level of spectacular BREXIT incompetence. Nevertheless they remain the government of the day and most recently have edged ahead in the polls. They have not become the most successful political party of the age because they are the stupid party all of the time.

If the Conservatives want a poster child for Leaver dishonesty at exactly the moment that Brexit strikes and the public is judging whether the promises of the campaign were being met, they can go ahead. It doesn’t seem likely to be a happy choice though.

Dura_Ace

TheWhiteRabbit said:

I think the population has largely internalised the fact that, you know, Brexit is pretty f****** difficult.

Much like my M64/21 rebuild project it doesn't have the feel of anything that is going to be conclusively resolved in just over a year.

HYUFD

Foxy said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ydoethur said:

The situation is crazy.

The government is weak and divided. The country has just had an annual health crisis. Council tax is rising, but not fast enough to save at least one council from bankruptcy (admittedly the main problem there seems to be the chief executive). The Prime Minister, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are briefing against each other on an almost daily basis. The EU are behaving so aggressively that if they were Russians we'd be talking about hostile intent.

And yet despite all this, not only is Labour not ten points ahead in the polls but it is actually falling back.

What the hell is going on?

Labour have a year to turn this around.

Otherwise, they will drift inexorably to, at best, a replay of 2017.

A few points is MoE, and it is not a time when another election is on the cards, so the vast majority of the muggles out there in non-PB land are switched off. We may get some indications from the May Local elections but until then? Meh. I expect Vince to go this autumn after a poor Locals and worse anti-Brexit campaign. Not sure who gets the poisoned chalice next.

Is this the worst government and opposition ever? It is a pretty crowded field, and many other contenders!

Ultimately though the problem is that people want easy pain free solutions to complex problems. Brexit is no answer to the problems of globalisation, indeed likely to make it worse. Corbynism is no answer to the problems of the welfare state in times of demographic change, indeed likely to make things worse.

We are not alone in the world in the uselessness of our politicians, just look at the USA, Germany, Italy, etc etc. The issues are worldwide and few seem to have the answers, probably because there are no easy ones.

I think the LDs will have an OK locals and could even pick up more councils from the Tories in London than Labour if they win both Kingston Upon Thames and Richmond Park. They will also hope to challenge in the Home Counties in opposition to local plans. Both Brexit and Corbynism are symptoms of the rising anti immigration, anti austerity, anti corporate globalisation taking place across much of the western world

JackW

AlastairMeeks said:

If the Conservatives want a poster child for Leaver dishonesty at exactly the moment that Brexit strikes and the public is judging whether the promises of the campaign were being met, they can go ahead. It doesn’t seem likely to be a happy choice though.

I think you underestimate the level of dishonesty discounting that the voting public allow for.

Blair shrugged off the Iraq debacle in 2005 because the electorate determined he was the least worst option and considered that a politician misleading the public on a matter of war was trumped by other factors.

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

AlastairMeeks said:

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Penny Mordaunt quite impressive on Marr

Agreed.

Might she make a splash in the next Conservative leadership election or will she bomb?

After she lied during the referendum campaign she should have no future in the Conservative party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36352676/penny-mordaunt-the-uk-can-t-veto-turkey-joining-eu

If politicians who lie, obfuscate, mislead or are a tad delicate with the actuality had no future in politics then the House of Commons would be empty.

There’s no need to be that restrictive. Just excluding liars would exclude Penny Mordaunt.

Find me a politician who hasn't lied and I'll show you a liar.

Were you ever a politician, Jack?

I cannot tell a lie ....

I assume you’re backing JRM for next Leader.

With his Catholic views he must think every monarch after James II / VII is a Protestant usurper and it is time to install the Jacobites back on to the throne, which he will do when he becomes PM.