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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yvette Cooper should be shadow chancellor in place of her h
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yvette Cooper should be shadow chancellor in place of her husband
Today’s YouGov has that at 7% which equals the largest Tory lead this year. Even more worrying for Labour is that time is ticking away and we are now just 19 months from GE2015
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Latest YouGov/The Sun results 9th September - Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%; APP -30, it is not beyond the whit of man to envisage a 2015 result of: Con 38%, Lab 33%, LD 13%, UKIP 9%;, if there is a net movement of 5 points away from labour and UKIP and a net gain of 5 points for LibDems and Cons - just to get in before the ARSE
The truth is it is now too late to gain traction from the removal of Balls, the damage is done, the points were there to be scored before we set off on a stronger economic track. Now we are moving in the right direction the points are so much harder to gain, it is more a matter of damage limitation for Labour.
Countdown - 40 minutes.
Which is odd - I'd think the intensity of the hostile coverage would be filtering through a bit and I wouldn't be surprised to see a really low lead outlier one of these days. But at this point it probably makes sense to await the conferences to see what conclusions people draw.
Rolls Royce wins £111m contract to power Kazakhstan oil pipeline cityam.com/blog/137879575…
It must be difficult for the Labour team to countenance moving him. He may be unpopular and difficult and - terminally for him - linked heavily with the Brown failure/culture, but he is a big beast.
It's a bit like when Roy Keane had to leave Man Utd. Fergie showed him the door when he felt he could no longer cope with his divisiveness, despite being their most powerful figure in the team. Utd went on to great success after that. Time for Miliband to live up to his Fergie comparisons?
The question is would Yvette Cooper accept it if meant a demotion for her husband.
But I can't see it happening, The Tories would point out that it proves they were right and Labour were wrong, three Shadow Chancellors in one parliament isn't a good sign for economic coherence.
The Tories had three Shadow Chancellors between 1997 and 2001.
EdM is full of contradictions that many are growing weary of on his own side.
"Conservative research found that Unite paid no tax in the last two years by being able to exploit an obscure accounting loophole.
This loophole meant that the union was able to offset millions of pounds in profits from a £51.6 million portfolio of stocks and shares against ‘provident benefits’ for members.
Unite generated an investment income of £5,787,000 in the past two years from their portfolio, but paid £0 Corporation Tax.
Conservative Vice Chairman Bob Neill said: “Unite give champagne socialists a bad name. They say one thing and practice another. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10294973/Unite-the-union-paid-no-tax-in-2011-and-2012.html
No one knows what kind of outcome that vote share would give us; it depends on the tactical voting from Lib Dems where they are in third place and what kippers do.
It could easily give us, around 290 labour and tory mps each and the Lib Dems holding a real balance of power. Horrific prospect all round.
2. She would be stuck with the same spendy lines.
3. The unions, as evidenced this week, are gung-ho for Brownism on steroids. Can the leadership afford another battle there?
4. Labour's biggest problem is Miliband's leadership, not Balls as SCoE (though I agree with Mike that he's underperforming there).
5. Cooper's record in government e.g. HIPS, is not one of being wholly in tune with public opinion.
6. Cooper's record in opposition is one of failing to land key blows on a minister whose department usually lobs easy put-aways in the direction of the opposition.
7 - and the biggie - Labour is falling behind because the economy is recovering, which tends to legitimise and justify the government's policy, and so undermine Labour's record as calling for a Plan B. Now, we can argue (and no doubt will) as to whether that recovery was the government's doing and whether it delayed recovery or was valuable restructuring or whatever - and what you believe there is likely to be largely a function of your personal political beliefs - but the important thing is what the public at large believes and here, the government is on the front foot.
Only one in four people in England believe Scotland should be governed independently, the latest British Social Attitudes survey shows.
However, the same survey shows just 23% of Scots back independence.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/independence-support-higher-in-england.22110344?_=4b8e55083217d6d34013b032e311ec1553122a8c
" With stock markets jittery around the world and bank lending to small firms still falling here in Britain, it is foolish to take growth for granted. That is why I continue to agree with the IMF, which has urged the UK to act now to support recovery by bringing forward £10 billion of infrastructure investment. This would allow us to build 400,000 affordable homes, create more than half a million jobs and make our economy stronger and more balanced for the long term.
And as Ed Miliband will say today at the TUC, we need a recovery that benefits everyone, not just a few. That is why Labour wants to help to make work pay by introducing a lower 10p starting rate of tax, paid for by a mansion tax, and to repeat the tax on bank bonuses to pay for a compulsory jobs guarantee for young people.
The next general election will be won by the party with the policies to secure a strong and fair recovery that works for the many and not just a few. Not complacent boasts from a Chancellor whose plan has failed and left working people paying the price..."
Of 106 comments so far - 103 against Balls - top recommended two are:
Carlos B 9 hours ago
Ed, I will never trust you. There is something I find fundamentally disturbing about you. I am dead certain that you want Osbourne to fail, no matter what the consequences on normal people are. You are desperate to return to government. There is nothing that you can say or do to make me trust you and your party one iota. I am not saying the coalition is perfect, but you and your party and your leader truly make my skin crawl.
DS Delacroix 10 hours ago
I can only assume the Labour party occupy a parallel universe where they didn't preside over 14 years of treachery - ruining our finances, gerrymandering the vote with mass immigration and allowing the public budget to balloon beyond recognition.
And now, in this parallel universe, we are not in a recovery, and they are able to govern better?
Someone give them their meds.
Cough .... Nadal !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Giving her a bigger job would simply amplify and expose her weaknesses. it would soon be a case of ..Next Please.
Is she a member of Unite?.
9. Labour's already had to replace one Shadow Chancellor this parliament as under-performing, which is unfortunate. To lose a second would be careless.
1. Ed is crap
2. Balls is crap
3. His pixie is also crap
4. In fact they're all crap - Brown killed anyone who gave the slightest hint of being not crap
But they will most likely form the next government and we can look forward to a Hollande type outcome? Go BoJo 2020?
Countdown - 13 minutes.
Lab 1.91
Con 2.08
Switcheroo before October ?
One of the last 6 ARSE projections had Ukip at 5 seats and no projection on zero.
Get back to being "Moderated" or go tend to the cows.
Has Tim got his response typed out already, before the ARSE publication?
I have to say I strongly agree with those on here who think that the tories are doing themselves no favours in going after Unions so regularly and on such spurious grounds. It may (or may not) score cheap points against Labour but it does so at a strategic cost that they really cannot afford.
Con 306 .. Lab 268 .. LibDem 40 .. SNP 10 .. PC 2 .. Ukip 2 .. NI 18 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 20 seats short of a majority.
The ridiculous thing is the recovery we have is flawed and doesn't really address the fundamental weaknesses in the british economy. The stinging criticisms Osborne faces are more from the right - where's the reform ? - than the Left - you're not spendiing enough on austerity. While the PB lefties console themselves with jokes about fops they might try to ask themselves why with Osborne being such an easy target they can't land any blows.
Rainbow kiss of death coalition. ..
To continue last night's duel for the entertainment of AndyJS, I see that SeanT is recommending his life because he's been parenting for 4 months (gosh) and is writing a book. I suppose it beats sitting in the Hotel El Pomposo in the Val d'Touristico trying to think of a new way to say "Those mountains are nice", or screwing a random prostitute, but it still sounds a bit dull. To each his own, eh?
Also don't tell Mrs JackW I have an actual model going !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some Tories can't get their heads around the fact that "The Unions" (spit) are actually millions of ordinary workers. Many of whom are more than sympathetic to a Tory perspective on things. Why the Tories go out of their way to alienate them is beyond me.
What is needed from a Labour perspective is a refinement of the argument. This will basically involve 3 wasted years, tax cuts for the rich, the need to invest in infrastructure and the desperate need for more housing. This side of the Labour story seems to me reasonably coherent and sellable.
What is missing is the quid pro quo. Namely that that £10bn of infrastructure spending really needs to come out of current spending so more cuts need to be found. The Coalition cuts, however unsavoury and unfair, cannot be restored unless nicer cuts are found somewhere else. An acknowledgement that government spending needs to be kept on a downward trend for some time to come until the structural deficit is completely eliminated.
This involves a series of policies and a self discipline across the party that has been entirely absent. This is a matter for the leader, not the Shadow Chancellor. In short Labour's problem remains Ed, not Ed.
26% for the English
http://www.bsa-29.natcen.ac.uk/read-the-report/scottish-independence/introduction.aspx
Usual opposition playbook.
(edit: some horrible metaphor abuse in there, ugh, I do apologise...)
Whatever the argument, somehow I doubt Ed Balls will be moved. His departure would been seen as tacit acceptance that Labour’s economic stance since 2010 was fundamentally flawed, and, as its prime mover, Balls would get the blame. – No bad thing to have a scapegoat, however, Miliband is looking rather weak at present and needs all the friends he has, somehow trashing Balls’ credibility and future Leadership chances might not be such a good idea for Ed.
Damn. I've blown it haven't I?
People need jobs first then membership later..
Anyone who opposed that would be slammed and the Con criticisms would be right.
It would appear from your posting history that you are fairly new to PB. My ARSE (Anonymous Random Selection of Electors) has an excellent record of calling results both in the UK and at US presidential elections.
"tim's" got the PB equivalent of a face like a smacked arse because the ARSE projections have immense credibility but fail to measure up to his playbook of a return of a Labour government in 2015 and the rubbishing of the all things Coalition.
That JL have a good relationship with the unions is surely a testament to the moderate views of the workers at JL - not the fat cats at the top of Unite.
Teachers, PCS members working at job centres etc are more lefty and militant - hence they have a poor relationship with the employers.
Ferk all to do with how great Union leaders are - its the workers at JL who want the sensible type of union membership.
For those, like me, who believe UKIP has peaked and is unlikely to win the most votes in next year's Euro elections, there's currently a potentially rewarding opportunity to back both the major parties in combination to produce a useful return:
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Should one or other win, this bet returns a profit of 89% on the combined stakes,
As ever, do your own research.
So in essence Woodley had to reflect his members views - which are more moderate - like an echo chamber..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10297686/Guess-who-wasnt-at-the-gathering-of-the-clan-chiefs.html
"AS FAR as I could tell there were two dukes, one marquess, several earls, a field marshal and any number of others from the lower orders of nobility but no First Minister at the service of commemoration of the 500th anniversary of the Battle of Flodden, held in the High Kirk of Edinburgh at St Giles, yesterday."
"However, it was more than a bit surprising that there was no one present from that body that styles itself the Scottish Government; after all the Lord Provost of Edinburgh was there in all his golden regalia. Why not Wee Eck, or at least someone representing him?"
Don't know if you caught my reply on the previous thread Nick but I am by no means offended by your gentle dig.
The argument about happiness is much more interesting. Your view, as I understand it, is that living in a fair, equal caring society is really important to your happiness. Sean's view is that happiness comes from individual pleasure and family.
The obvious answer is that it is clearly a bit of both but I do think this shows a fundamental difference between the left and right that goes back at least as far as Maggie's "there is no such thing as society" speech and arguably a lot, lot longer.
I can think of few issues that show the difference of approach so clearly and you can judge someone's political views fairly precisely by where they sit on this scale.
Where unions are constructive and actively engage with management to achieve good working conditions and a flexible workforce they can be a very valuable partner in securing a successful business - and that the workers get their fair share. JLR is a good example, but there are many others as well
What they don't have, though, is an automatic *right* to be involved in a private business. I haven't diligenced the exact situation around DP World myself, but if the reports are true then this is completely unhelpful. It gets worse in the public sector where it appears that many of the leadership are just looking for excuses to bring their members out on strike for what are essentially political reasons.
It's time that everyone, on both sides, grew up.
We see in the private sector that unions (members and leaders?) are quite happy to be co-operative in the greater interest – similar to the way German unions operate. Jaguar Landrover seems a good exemplar. The underlying driver is to share the gains from expansion. Management get more flexible workers, workers get more money. It’s quite Tory!
In the public sector we see chippy obstructive unhelpful lefty union practices. The unions (leadership) are scared that forcing political donations to be individual choice rather than block gifts will surely direct a fair share to the Tories as well as Labour.
Isolating the dinosaurs and public sector luddites from the open minded helpful ones in the union movement would be good for Dave – and for the unions. It will also place Miliband in a difficult position.
That's a very Danish view, reflecting the society I grew up in. I realise it's not the only way to live, but it's not a bad way to find life satisfying, and I'd argue that Norway is perhaps the epitome of it.
No details linked.
I'm tending to the view that Galloway should join JohnO in a mystery train journey and at "all change" the former might strike out again for the HoC !!
Very possible .
From the BBC Latest.
I can find no mention of a Salmond or Sturgeon.
http://labourlist.org/2013/09/miliband-to-tell-tuc-that-his-reforms-are-a-historic-opportunity-but-also-a-risk-and-a-massive-challenge/
I hope that Ed M doesn't revert to type and start yet another speech in this manner.
In fairness, despite the current brightness, the underlying position for the UK, the US and most western countries remains very bad with excessive debt, excessive entitlements, an ageing population, a lack of international competitiveness and rather too much self indulgence. It is not difficult to identify scenarios where this ends in tears. But the alleged precision of wave theories are about as useful as horoscopes.
And muddling along is an intensely human thing to do.
http://tinyurl.com/o8yb8dn
"I think you mean Hunchman ......"
Yes I do. Difficult typing carrying all these magazines.
What is the imputed rent and the higher it is, does this cheap prefab contribute to the higher GDP figures?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42812591.html
The Labour party has released some substantial extracts from Ed Miliband's speech. Here they are in full, with key point headlines from me.
• Miliband will describe his proposals as part of his attempt to create a one nation party.
I am a One Nation politician. And One Nation is about governing for the whole country. To do this we are going have to build a new kind of Labour Party. A new relationship with individual trade union members.
Do you want Scotland to become broke and destitute under Scottish Independence?
and
Do you want Scotland to remain under the jackboot of the English Tories and fund England and stay in the Union?
Everyone will be happy.
Find it a but difficult to analyse should they do so, given I'm a Tory, but I think if they don't feel they will be able to go into the next election on too far/too fast/Tory cuts and would rather focus on the cost of living, then removing him sooner rather than later would seem better. If they do want to stick to their previous attack lines, there seems little point in paying the price of looking like you're accepting defeat.
“We have a Prime Minister, who writes you and your members off. Who doesn’t just write you off, but oozes contempt for you from every pore. What does he say about you? He says your members are a “threat to our economy”. Back to the enemy within."
This resonates in a way that tories should be genuinely fearful of and need to address urgently. The idea of free membership for trade union members yesterday was one possibility. But why were no government ministers speaking to the TUC? Presumably not invited but no fringe, no Q&As, no meetings? Just a big mistake.
http://tinyurl.com/qetscml
Who ate all the Mars bars?
Talk about overreacting. This is like the Streisand Effect .
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1
Here's an idea @GuidoFawkes: Let's ask Rachel Reeves to read that angry letter out loud on air, then we can judge if she's boring or not.
The top four countries for happiness on that index all have populations that are aging and three of the four have lower percentages of immigrant populations than the UK (which is down at 22nd in the happiness rankings).
So as you say, your generalization is garbage.