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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DefSec & ex-chief whip, Gavin Williamson, – a good bet at 7/1
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DefSec & ex-chief whip, Gavin Williamson, – a good bet at 7/1 for next cabinet exit?
The latest of TMay's favourite's G Williamson under pressure over what happened at fireplace firm https://t.co/ODNt4ubCnu
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Fire burn, and cauldron bubble.
Should have stayed as chief whip in a back room with his spider.
First round of two by-elections since last year's general elections. The two constituencies in question were reliably right-wing before last year. In June, the Macron-supporting candidates did very well there: one won easily in Val d'Oise (54.5/45.5) and the other just lost in Belfort (49.2 to 50.7).
No candidate reached 50% in either constituency and thus there will be second rounds between the top two candidates next week.
Val d'Oise
Qualified for second round: LREM (Macron's party) 29.3 (-6.7) and LR (right) 23.67 (+5.9)
Eliminated: FI (far-left) 11.47 (+1,3), FN (Le Pen) 10.11 (-5.2) Socialists 6.88 (+1.4) Greens 6.2 (+2.3) DLF (eurosceptic right) 4.3 (+4.3) and 5 others 8.08 (+2.5)
It does not look like a very easy second round for the LREM incumbent and it could be quite close. Two losers here LREM and FN. LREM apparently lost some votes on both sides, but mostly to the right. Le Pen's party used to do well in by-elections but this time it lost ground both to DLF and to small outfits run by former FN executives expelled from the party (PDF and Patriotes).
Belfort
Quakified for second round: LR 39.0 (+15.3) and LREM 26.7 (-5.1)
Eliminated: FI 11.6 (-2) FN 7.7 (-9.8) Greens 4.5 (+4.5) DLF 3.8 (3.8) Socialists 2.6 (-6.5) Patriotes 2 (+2) 2 others 2.2 (+0.4)
Very strong result for the sitting MP who will almost certainly be reelected. Terrible result for the FN, paying the price for its internal problems and their feuding with the Patriotes. It is also probably one of the worst results for a socialist candidate ever (in a seat they held from 1997 to 2002)
In national terms, these results seem to show that LR is slowly regaining some strength, despite its impopular leader (Laurent Wauquiez), while the socialists (and the left in general) are still in very bad shape. The FN appears to be in crisis and divided again but they have time to regain strength before the Euro elections next year.
LREM remains in a strong position, but more because of its centrist position (giving it strength in two-round contests) than by its very large base.
Although May announced no official campaign, her zero tolerance of anything which might be considered a history of harassment (while in many respects far more admirable than Major's risible gambit) has reaped relatively few political gains at some considerable cost.
Meanwhile, Labour gets away with similar embarrassments by taking a more complacent attitude,.
GW and the woman in question got drunk and snogged at a staff party
He took it to mean more than it did and began sending her flowers. Lots of flowers.
She was very upset and complained to her managers
He chose to resign (sorry “part amicably”) rather than be fired
How is that not stalking?
May has few enough allies. She will not choose to lose another. Of course this may damage his prospects of succeeding May but that is a different issue altogether.
Of course Brexit can be delivered. The problem is that the establishment does not want to deliver it.
Also, in relation to the points made elsewhere (by others) that there is no majority for hard Brexit in the HoC, it doesn't matter at all. The HoC cannot negotiate with the EU - they can only reject or accept any deal proposed by the Government. If they reject, you get hard Brexit anyway. So soft Brexit depends on the Govt agreeing that with the EU. And although the Leavers are not a majority in the HoC or even in the Tory party, they probably have the numbers to ensure that May is tossed out and in that case it is overwhelmingly likely that a Leaver will end up as Tory leader. So explain to me whether it matters what the majority in the HoC think?
Character matters in a PM.
Getting drunk and being silly at a party is one thing. Pursuing it to the point of upsetting the object of your affections is quite another
The "cover up" allegation at the moment is risible. In Green's case he lied (whilst a Minister) about what the police had told him at the time of the original investigation. All we have here is that it was a "distraction" at a time when the MoD, along with other departments, are seeking to keep/increase their budget for the coming year. How on earth could running such a story prevent the original story from coming out? By increasing Williamson's profile it simply made it marginally more newsworthy.
At the moment it seems to me yet another example of why only certain peculiar personality types would think politics was worth the candle.
If the Tories continue this level of blue on blue the government just might fall. It has already ceased to function in any meaningful way.
He’s a bit paranoid, accusing Boris and Phil Hammond of briefing against him.
I can see why Phil Hammond nicknamed Gavin Williamson ‘Private Pike’
*My betting position hopes so.
As to what he did, it is the power imbalance that is the issue. He was MD and she a subordinate from reading the reports. That is likely to hide a multitude of sins.
Being thrown out of the Cabinet for an affair at work isn't part of the House of Cards plot as far as I recall. So, something has gone badly wrong with Williamson.
With things this bad, surely there's a good chance that another 8 will arrive as MPs gather back at Westminster over next couple of days?
Apparently the company deferred pension contributions because of "cash flow restraints". Which would be understandable if they weren't paying out dividends and substantial bonuses to senior staff at the same time. Frank Field is on their case. Surely director disqualification proceedings are not going to be long delayed.
There was no "youthquake" in 2017.
We are getting to the point where nobody but maiden aunts will be able to take up politics. Just those whose biggest act of stupid is running through a cornfield. And look how well that worked out.
What were criminal actions at the time shouldn't be excused. But stuff which is part of learning about life - and where lessons have been learned - do require a level of moving on.
Anyway, just off to write a list of questions to be put to all Guardian journalists, to see how many of them can carry on in their careers....
But the way he told it, it’s the tragic but ultimately redemptive story of a hero who strays from the path of righteousness but is forgiven by his pregnant wife.
Sorry forgot: he didn’t mention his wife was pregnant when he cheated on her did he?
He needs to quit as Defence Secretary.
I get into trouble for just looking at another woman.
The woman in question went to the parent company which shows how serious it was
I guess its ok if you don't get found out
But yes, as DavidL says, the Government does not appear to be functioning in any meaningful way. Apart from Gove and maybe Javid, almost nobody seems to be attending to their jobs (maybe Hunt? But what is he actually doing?), while the Cabinet as a whole stares at the approaching Brexit choice like a rabbit in the headlights, unable to move in either direction. There was a recent article in a German paper where it said that the EU has given up on getting a clear indication from Britain of what exactly we want to happen (within the limits of what is possible), so they've come to the conclusion that they simply need to give us a binary choice, essentially Norway or Canada without significant pluses or minuses.
Whether or not he achieved his objective is immaterial. He’d broken his pledge of fidelity
(Also claimed he was offered another post at the company, but declined it.)
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jan/29/bureaucracy-evil-isis-run-city-mosul
Plus Boris went to Oxford, that place is a nest of traitors.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/kgbs-oxford-spy-recruiter-unmasked/news-story/eab1d3dd134f2528b036dff98da1f4a3
If that were it, then there is no story.
The implied story is harassment; whether is real substance to it is entirely speculative at this point.
Which even has its own Wikipedia page.....
Odds a bit short for my taste, particularly as he appears favoured by May to succeed her.
How many Prime Ministers?
If it denotes that the age around which people are supposed to gravitate towards the Conservatives is rising.
It is possible, though, that there was a disproportionate increase in young voters who were enthused by Corbyn, matched by an actual fall in youth turnout among voters who thought all the parties were rubbish. That fits the model of a particularly sharp rise in Labour support among the young without any rise in youth turnout.
But how can you trust a man that cheats on his wife to lead the country?
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/the-myth-of-the-2017-youthquake-election/#.Wm7ZAWLLeaM
They duped the KGB.
One day the truth about Burgess, Maclean, Philby, and Blunt will come out and we will say they were true British patriots.
The Russians knew if you wanted to get control of the most influential people you needed to target the best uni in the country.
I’m more confident about this than I was about Mrs May being crap before the rest of the country caught up.
[I used to collect coins as a child, so I can add it to my collection. It'll be the oldest by about 300-400 years].
As far I can see she’s kept her counsel.
Btw, on Youtube there are a couple of clips of Guy Burgess being interviewed and his strangulated vowels seem remarkable even for those decades. He sounds posher than the Queen.
Straight bat indeed.
The class people from Yorkshire show is only matched by our intelligence and modesty.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/957896245158260736