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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A worry for LAB? The gloss could be coming off Corbyn’s appeal to young voters

Perhaps the great hope of Corbyn’s Labour is that when the next general election comes, whenever that is, comes that the party will be able to repeat the GE2017 feat and secure huge backing from the youth vote. It was this, of course, combined with a much reduced turnout by the over-65s, that resulted in Theresa May GE17 gamble failing and the Tories losing their majority.

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Big_G_NorthWales

First

Big_G_NorthWales

Assume McDonnell has his fingers in his ears as Trump makes the compelling case for low taxes and reduced regulation

HYUFD

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

YBarddCwsc

Surely, one of the effects is that the students in 2017 and 2018 are realising that they will be the graduate employees of 2022.

Someone who will be a student in 2022 has a real incentive to vote for Corbyn (most of these people are still in school).

By 2022, the present cohort of students will not be benefiting as they fall into the category of the generation in which "there are no plans to write off student debt", at least according to Angela Rayner.

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

It does rather confirm the claim from a Momentum activist that another 2 weeks and Labour would have actually won the last election.

BannedInParis

Corbyn is quite bad at day to day politics, so this sort of fall should be expected.

AlastairMeeks

Curious that it peaked at only 47%. Given the claimed enthusiasm of this age group for Jeremy Corbyn, that's rather low.

Perhaps Labour's support always was more about the policies rather than the leader.

williamglenn

Momentum have definitely been trying to defend Corbyn against attacks on his position on Brexit. There's even been a rival hashtag #PCPEU which means pro-Corbyn, pro-EU, because they perceived #FBPE as undermining support for Corbyn.

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Richard_Nabavi

They are getting bored. On to the next fad.

HYUFD

Recidivist said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

It does rather confirm the claim from a Momentum activist that another 2 weeks and Labour would have actually won the last election.

It may have been able to do a deal with the SNP, I doubt it would have won an overall majority

HYUFD

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

dixiedean

Any link to the tables for this? How high were the don't knows? Any word on other age group movements?
Without this information it is difficult to draw conclusions.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants

rkrkrk

AlastairMeeks said:

Curious that it peaked at only 47%. Given the claimed enthusiasm of this age group for Jeremy Corbyn, that's rather low.

Perhaps Labour's support always was more about the policies rather than the leader.

YouGov did some polling on that and found 18-24 y/olds voted Labour in 2017 for the policies (26%) slightly more than Jezza (24%). That gap is much larger for 25-49 group.

Personally I think it’s the interaction between popular policies and personal authenticity. Corbyn is trusted not to do a Nick Clegg.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener/

Recidivist

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

Good point. In fact it is worse for the Conservatives. They are actually doing Brexit so risk making enemies of people who perceive themselves to be losers from the process. And I suspect that current Tory remainers feel more strongly about remaining than Labour leavers feel about leaving.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants

And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?

rkrkrk

Richard_Nabavi said:

They are getting bored. On to the next fad.

Fingers crossed the Tory party are similarly complacent.

RobD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants

And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?

Tough

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants

And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?

Well they are likely already voting Labour or LD anyway if they put that as a priority above all given leaving the single market was in the last Tory manifesto and given the only main UK wide party committed to staying permanently in the EU, the LDs, got just 7% that position has few ardent supporters

TGOHF

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/956887515830673411

volcanopete

Freedom for Yorkshire.End the London tyranny.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/26/yorkshire-football-team-stateless-peoples-league-isle-of-man-pontefract?CMP=twt_gu

John_M

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/956887515830673411

Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.

RobD

John_M said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/956887515830673411

Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.

How about treating people equally, regardless of their gender?

John_M

RobD said:

John_M said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/956887515830673411

Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.

How about treating people equally, regardless of their gender?

Once you've decided to have all women shortlists, you've abandoned that concept .

Nigelb

John_M said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/956887515830673411

Very sorry that we're seeing this nonsense. I have a number of issues with Labour's stance.

Firstly, self-id trivialises a very complex and often (from my own experience) unpleasant condition. Access to treatment is hard (though some would still say it's too easy) and the process of transition can be tortuous, lengthy and expensive (the NHS might cover the cost of a vaginoplasty, but that's typically a small part of the process, albeit one that completes the journey).

Secondly, the last thing we want to do is to alienate women who are rightly concerned about the message it sends. I know it is easy to gloat at this unhappy intersection of identity politics, but it should be considered outside the traditional partisan left/right divide.

She sounds as though she'd be quite at home amongst the social reactionaries of the US Republican party:
“In fifteen years’ time when your daughters miss out on their Uni places cos of men, when your mum is in a hospital ward with men, when the Olympic women’s 100m gold is won by a man and when a fully grown man follows your little girl into the women’s loos at Maccys… remember us.”..

Richard_Nabavi

Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.

felix

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/956887515830673411

Unlike the Labour party which is full of them

felix

Richard_Nabavi said:

Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.

+1.

AlastairMeeks

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Blue_rog

Richard_Nabavi said:

Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.

Or safe seats in Northern working class seats

tyson

BannedInParis said:

Corbyn is quite bad at day to day politics, so this sort of fall should be expected.

A point I was about to make....it's not that he's quite bad, it just seems he's not at all interested in the day to day responsibilities of opposition.

But come the election I doubt there is a single Tory out there who will relish campaigning against him.....

oh Jeremy corbyn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1zLoG6YeA4

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

On-topic: still very good, but the slide does appear to be there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dgp9MPLEAqA

williamglenn

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

The number of people placing the health system as a major issue in the UK compared with the other European countries they polled is striking.

Plus of course it shows a majority for Remain if a referendum were held today...

BannedInParis

tyson said:

BannedInParis said:

Corbyn is quite bad at day to day politics, so this sort of fall should be expected.

A point I was about to make....it's not that he's quite bad, it just seems he's not at all interested in the day to day responsibilities of opposition.

...

I wouldn't disagree with any of that, tyson.

but then again, I, too, can promise the moon on a stick.

BannedInParis

Richard_Nabavi said:

Clearly there is discrimination and bigotry which the Labour Party should confront head-on, by adopting all-trans shortlists, preferably in key marginal seats.

chuckle.

williamglenn

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.

I presume the question was Join/Don't join in their case.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.

Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.

John_M

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.

Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.

When you're a small country sitting atop an enormous bucket of oil and even more enormous sovereign wealth fund it's easy to be happy.

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

They are getting bored. On to the next fad.

They must be wondering when season II is coming out. Its been a much longer wait than promised. It was supposed to be here by Christmas last year.

Morris_Dancer

Another strong indicator Sara Khan is a good appointment:
https://twitter.com/UK_CAGE/status/956891854963953664

Richard_Nabavi

williamglenn said:

The number of people placing the health system as a major issue in the UK compared with the other European countries they polled is striking.

Yes, especially since the same UK respondents indicate levels of satisfaction in the national healthcare system (and local facilities) which are the same as or higher than non-UK respondents.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants

And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?

Well they are likely already voting Labour or LD anyway if they put that as a priority above all given leaving the single market was in the last Tory manifesto and given the only main UK wide party committed to staying permanently in the EU, the LDs, got just 7% that position has few ardent supporters

Polling shows one fifth of people currently intending to vote Tory think that leaving the EU was the wrong decision. What does your position offer them?

DavidL

John_M said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.

Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.

When you're a small country sitting atop an enormous bucket of oil and even more enormous sovereign wealth fund it's easy to be happy.

You think? Cold, dark and the alcohol is ruinously expensive.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people placing the health system as a major issue in the UK compared with the other European countries they polled is striking.

Yes, especially since the same UK respondents indicate levels of satisfaction in the national healthcare system (and local facilities) which are the same as or higher than non-UK respondents.

Maybe because one party likes to keep banging on about how it is on the verge of collapse? Just a thought.

AlastairMeeks

Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

tyson

Another point is that whilst it was always the prevailing orthodoxy that oppositions needed to be well ahead in the polls to counter an incumbency swingback during an election campaign, I think the opposite is true with Corbyn.

20% Tory leads vanished into thin air in 2017. And it wasn't the polls overstating things....the council elections the month before showed strong Tory leads.

If you consider the membership differentials, the role of Momentum, Corbyn's idiosyncratic charisma which lights up during a campaign...2022 is going to be a tough gig for the Tories whoever leads them.

AlastairMeeks

YouGov should have polled Italy. It would have given some striking results, I imagine.

OchEye

felix said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/956887515830673411

Unlike the Labour party which is full of them

Are you suggesting that no member of the Tories has one? Perhaps you should discuss this with Boris....

John_M

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt many 18 to 24s will switch to the Tories next time but if fewer of them turn out for Labour that could give Corbyn a problem

That is true. Brexit ambivalence is also a valid issue that will ensure many youngsters will not come out to vote Labour

Corbyn has to carefully balance his young voters support for Remain with his working class voters support for Leave

Given that polling shows a similar percentage of Conservatives support Remain to the number of Labour voters who support Leave, how do you suggest the Conservatives should try to perform the same careful balancing act?

The Tories are quite clear they want a FTA with the EU while leaving the single market and customs union and ending free movement, Labour is still not certain what it wants

And what if Conservative Remain supports don't want that and would prefer to stay in the single market?

Well they are likely already voting Labour or LD anyway if they put that as a priority above all given leaving the single market was in the last Tory manifesto and given the only main UK wide party committed to staying permanently in the EU, the LDs, got just 7% that position has few ardent supporters

Polling shows one fifth of people currently intending to vote Tory think that leaving the EU was the wrong decision. What does your position offer them?

It depends if that's the issue that has most salience with them. Despite appearances to the contrary, I'm not obsessed with the EU; health, housing, defence and the deficit are all things that concern me. It's the nature of the UK political system. I don't get an a la carte political offering, just whatever the Tory (or Labour or Lib Dem) table d'hote is on election day.

Blue_rog

tyson said:

Another point is that whilst it was always the prevailing orthodoxy that oppositions needed to be well ahead in the polls to counter an incumbency swingback during an election campaign, I think the opposite is true with Corbyn.

20% Tory leads vanished into thin air in 2017. And it wasn't the polls overstating things....the council elections the month before showed strong Tory leads.

If you consider the membership differentials, the role of Momentum, Corbyn's idiosyncratic charisma which lights up during a campaign...2022 is going to be a tough gig for the Tories whoever leads them.

Good point Tyson

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

YouGov should have polled Italy. It would have given some striking results, I imagine.

That would have been much more interesting. The Germans don't seem to be very happy with their government. Not surprising really since they don't really have one but it must make the CSU even keener to avoid another election.

RobD

Blue_rog said:

tyson said:

Another point is that whilst it was always the prevailing orthodoxy that oppositions needed to be well ahead in the polls to counter an incumbency swingback during an election campaign, I think the opposite is true with Corbyn.

20% Tory leads vanished into thin air in 2017. And it wasn't the polls overstating things....the council elections the month before showed strong Tory leads.

If you consider the membership differentials, the role of Momentum, Corbyn's idiosyncratic charisma which lights up during a campaign...2022 is going to be a tough gig for the Tories whoever leads them.

Good point Tyson

Is it? Corbyn surged because the others fell back. Without them to squeeze, where are they going to get additional support from?

rottenborough

Blue on Blue:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/956898912866103298

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/956903866339119105

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/956884845476663296

williamglenn

rottenborough said:

Blue on Blue:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/956898912866103298

That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...

Jonathan

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

RobD

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Blue on Blue:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/956898912866103298

That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...

Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?

Richard_Nabavi

Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

Richard_Nabavi

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

The usual stuff.

williamglenn

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Blue on Blue:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/956898912866103298

That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...

Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?

His views in this clip seem clear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbQBIbP4XZg

rottenborough

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

Corn Laws redux?

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Blue on Blue:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/956898912866103298

That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...

Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?

His views in this clip seem clear.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbQBIbP4XZg

I’ll take that as a yes

rottenborough

Richard_Nabavi said:

Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

Sweden suffering a crime wave:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/crime-wave-engulfs-sweden-as-fraud-sexual-offences-reach-record

Jonathan

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

The usual stuff.

Seems more than the usual stuff, unless this is the new usual.

williamglenn

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Blue on Blue:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/956898912866103298

That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...

Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?

His views in this clip seem clear.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbQBIbP4XZg

I’ll take that as a yes

You should watch the clip because it was in the context of the referendum campaign where he was directly calling for EEA membership and saying that 3-5 million jobs in the UK depend on membership of the single market.

RobD

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Blue on Blue:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/956898912866103298

That's Owen "only a madman would leave the single market" Paterson...

Wasn’t that quote taken out of context?

His views in this clip seem clear.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbQBIbP4XZg

I’ll take that as a yes

You should watch the clip because it was in the context of the referendum campaign where he was directly calling for EEA membership and saying that 3-5 million jobs in the UK depend on membership of the single market.

He was predicting 5 million job losses if we left the single market? Project fear, eat your heart out.

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Another strong indicator Sara Khan is a good appointment:
https://twitter.com/UK_CAGE/status/956891854963953664

She's being condemned by all the people one would wish to be condemned by.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, supplies of grilled and smoked baby are running low, and even ministers are finding it difficult to get their fix. Naturally, withdrawal symptoms include tetchiness, leaking to the media, and the insatiable ambition to become Prime Minister.

Richard_Nabavi

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

The usual stuff.

Seems more than the usual stuff, unless this is the new usual.

It probably is the new usual.

SandyRentool

For those who might have forgotten that the Kippers are circling the plughole:

"Thurrock's 17 UKIP councillors all resign from party"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42830757

Morris_Dancer

Hmm, only a lacklustre single market on the Swedish election currently, but nearer the time it might get going. We'll see how things play out there.

tyson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

The usual stuff.

Would you trust them running a piss up in a brewery? Not that I'd trust Corbyn et al either.

rottenborough

SandyRentool said:

For those who might have forgotten that the Kippers are circling the plughole:

"Thurrock's 17 UKIP councillors all resign from party"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42830757

Brexit seems to have been, as Dangerfield wrote of Edwardian Liberals, "a victory from which the party would never recover”.

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, if anyone backed Mr. Herdson's 70-80% for Putin at 5.25, there's a sort-of hedge on Betfair Exchange at 1.64 for over 70%. That can put you green for 0-80% (you might be able to cover that anyway, if you want to be very cautious, as I think 80-90% is 8 on Ladbrokes now).

RoyalBlue

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

The last one didn’t attract that much attention; your fevered imagination turned out to be wrong.

This is margin of error stuff. The final YouGov poll on 23rd June overstated Remain by a net 6 percentage points. Still no sign of anything like the level of Bregret needed to halt Brexit.

AndyJS

"Theresa May ignored the evidence on stop-and-search. The effect has been criminal" — Fraser Nelson:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/25/theresa-may-ignored-evidence-stop-and-search-effect-has-criminal/

Ishmael_Z

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organized_crime_in_Sweden

Sketchy, but the ethnicities are interesting.

Yorkcity

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

The usual stuff.

Seems more than the usual stuff, unless this is the new usual.

It probably is the new usual.

It is the new normal for Cabinet discussions and disagreements in public.Seems very democratic .

RoyalBlue

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

Sweden suffering a crime wave:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/crime-wave-engulfs-sweden-as-fraud-sexual-offences-reach-record

So letting in hundreds of thousands of young men from societies with very different gender norms and no rule of law hasn’t been an unqualified success? Truly shocking.

williamglenn

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

The last one didn’t attract that much attention; your fevered imagination turned out to be wrong.

This is margin of error stuff. The final YouGov poll on 23rd June overstated Remain by a net 6 percentage points. Still no sign of anything like the level of Bregret needed to halt Brexit.

The 'would you prefer to leave immediately or only after negotiations are complete' question shows some movement versus December.

Leave immediately: 26% (-4)
Only after negotiations are complete: 59% (+5)
Don't know: 15% (-1)

rottenborough

Kaboom!!!!!!!!!

https://twitter.com/politico/status/956761576941371393

RobD

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

The last one didn’t attract that much attention; your fevered imagination turned out to be wrong.

This is margin of error stuff. The final YouGov poll on 23rd June overstated Remain by a net 6 percentage points. Still no sign of anything like the level of Bregret needed to halt Brexit.

The 'would you prefer to leave immediately or only after negotiations are complete' question shows some movement versus December.

Leave immediately: 26% (-4)
Only after negotiations are complete: 59% (+5)
Don't know: 15% (-1)

Could be any number of reasons behind that one. Leavers content with the way the negotiations are progressing?

Yorkcity

tyson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

The usual stuff.

Would you trust them running a piss up in a brewery? Not that I'd trust Corbyn et al either.

I think they would be worse, with drink on board.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/956908908488118272

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/956913161214578690

TOPPING

Ishmael_Z said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organized_crime_in_Sweden

Sketchy, but the ethnicities are interesting.

All the international baddies in just about every UK crime drama (eg. Spooks, etc) are from: UK, Israel, US, Any Other Long Time Ally of the UK Gone Bad.

RobD

TOPPING said:

Ishmael_Z said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Blimey, just noticed the figures in that YouGov survey for 'the level of crime' being a big concern - 5% to 14% for six out of seven countries, 42% for Sweden!

Its all these crime dramas that they keep producing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organized_crime_in_Sweden

Sketchy, but the ethnicities are interesting.

All the international baddies in just about every UK crime drama (eg. Spooks, etc) are from: UK, Israel, US, Any Other Long Time Ally of the UK Gone Bad.

Well it is fictional, after all

David_Evershed

AlastairMeeks said:

Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

Universal income won't go down well with the working class.

rottenborough

David_Evershed said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

Universal income won't go down well with the working class.

Never mind the bond markets.

MarkHopkins

Now this is a scandal:

Don’t be too hard on US multinational: Treasury to HMRC

https://waitingfortax.com/2018/01/23/dont-be-too-hard-on-us-multinational-treasury-to-hmrc/

I always wondered why Amazon sellers seemed to get away with their VAT abuse. Would the gov rather foreign companies succeeded to the detriment of UK business? Do they want small business to have contempt for the gov?

RobD

rottenborough said:

David_Evershed said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

Universal income won't go down well with the working class.

Never mind the bond markets.

It’d go down as the biggest election bribe in political history.

FF43

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.

Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.

Norwegians on the whole are happy to be a "vassal state"*. I am not sure we will be.

* More precisely, the Norwegian populace is happy to outsource a large chunk of its foreign and economic policy to a third party. The famous Norwegian self-discipline and stubbornness are part of this. The government is a bit frustrated by not having a say over rules they implement, but they know they will never get a consensus on membership so they live with it.

Mortimer

David_Evershed said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

Universal income won't go down well with the working class.

Indeed not. It'll be an absolute field day for Tabloids, too.

I suspect it would solidify the metropolitan/uni seat millenial base but add 3-4% to the Tory column elsewhere.

MarqueeMark

Jonathan said:

What is going on in the parliamentary Tory party?

They are debating Brexit.

What is going on in Labour that they are not?

MarqueeMark

David_Evershed said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sort of on topic, apparently John McDonnell was hinting in Davos today that Labour might back a universal minimum income and that they are actively investigating the idea. I suspect that might go down very well with this section of the electorate.

Universal income won't go down well with the working class.

Especially when coupled with open borders. It will be like dementia tax cubed with their base.

Somebody hasn't thought this through!

RoyalBlue

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect that this opinion poll will be as closely dissected as YouGov's last opinion poll on the referendum result:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf

Striking that 66% of Norwegians would vote to leave an organisation of which Norway is not a member.

Presumably it's for them actually phrased as a poll on supporting joining or not, like we'd have had for the Euro if there was a corresponding Euro Currency poll prior to Brexit.

Indeed the figures are in like with other recent Norwegian EU membership polls that typically report approximately 16% in favour of joining and 66% against.

Which makes you wonder why we shouldn't consider the Norwegian model given how happy they are with it.

Norwegians on the whole are happy to be a "vassal state"*. I am not sure we will be.

* More precisely, the Norwegian populace are happy to outsource a large chunk of its foreign policy to a third party. The famous Norwegian self-discipline and stubbornness are part of this. The government is a bit frustrated by not having a say over rules they implement, but they know they will never get a consensus on membership so they live with it.

Why do you post these falsehoods? Norway has to follow about 25% of EU legislation, and gets its own seat in forums which represent the original source of much supposedly ‘EU’ legislation.

Your thoughts are 20 years out of date.