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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mismatch between what Scottish people think their government should be doing and their perception of what it is doing

There is a mega-sample Michael Ashcroft poll out this morning which I think highlights the biggest challenge facing YES – that Scottish people don’t think it should be the priority that the SNP is making it.

Read the full story here

GeoffM

First!

JackW

Mismatch - hhhmmm

I know the feeling - Mrs Jack W thinks Imelda Marcos, I think Sandy Shaw - Surely one pair for town and one for the country is enough for any well heeled individual !!

david_herdson

The sample (or at least, a large portion of it), might be ancient but the very large leads found for the main response - and the very small return given to the priority for independence - suggest that there can't have been much movement in opinion during that time.

The findings also point to another potential problem for the SNP. That 3% in the first question essentially represents the SNP's minimal core vote. Beyond that, they're polling based on competence, leadership, local factors, being 'not the others', and so on. Given that they've polled over 40% before, that's a huge score that's vulnerable. That said, for the moment, simply being 'not the others' may be enough.

The flip side of that is UKIP's position. Mike has frequently pointed out the low salience of the EU as a topic, and rightly so. However, what these figures show is just how well a party can do even when its core policy doesn't have deep and wide resonance, providing that other factors are flowing with it.

CarlottaVance

Some curious thinking among SNP voters :

What is Scottish Govt main priority;
Independence: 41
Economy/jobs: 14

Is that the right priority?
Yes: 69
No: 28

What should be Scottish Govt main priority:
Economy/jobs: 40
Independence: 17

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Scottish-Political-Attitudes-poll.pdf

Once again we owe Lord Ashcroft our gratitude for this insight - to be clear, the 10,007 base poll was conducted 22 Feb - 9 May.

DavidL

As far as I can see from the Scotsman link on the last page the yes/no polling was March to May of this year. Other parts of the polling seemed to have been carried out later but asking different questions. I have some doubts about whether it is particularly valid to ask one question of one sample in March and then different question of a different sample in August and then simply treat them as the same.

What I am also finding strange is the very wide differences in the polling by different organisations. I have read that, somewhat counter-intuitively, polling companies find it more difficult to poll for a one off yes/no than they do for traditional elections where they can test past voting records, liklihood to vote, spirals of silence etc over a series of elections refining their results.

In short, encouraged as I am by the majority of the polling I think the Unionists have to be cautious and not assume that anything is in the bag. My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

CarlottaVance

Q Finally, the question that will be asked in the referendum next year: Should Scotland be an independent country?

Net "no":
18-24: +36
65+: +51

The poll seems to have a lot lower level of "don't knows" (10%) than we've seen in other polls - perhaps because (it appears) they only prompted yes/no.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Scotland-10k-poll-Full-tables.pdf

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Although it seems to have low priority I'm not sure attacking the SNP for giving independence (its raison d'etre) so much attention is legitimate. After all, that's the whole point of the party, and they won an outright majority.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

Morris_Dancer

Just saw Azarenka lost to Williams. I was tempted to back the former (4.5) or maybe to win at 2-1 (9 or so). Closer than I would've expected, except the final set (6-1).

JackW

Two diary dates for lucky PBers :

10th September 0900hrs - Return of my ARSE from summer break.
18th September 0900hrs - First McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection - Precisely one out from the event.

MonikerDiCanio

CarlottaVance said:

Some curious thinking among SNP voters :

What is Scottish Govt main priority;
Independence: 41
Economy/jobs: 14

Is that the right priority?
Yes: 69
No: 28

What should be Scottish Govt main priority:
Economy/jobs: 40
Independence: 17

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Scottish-Political-Attitudes-poll.pdf

Once again we owe Lord Ashcroft our gratitude for this insight - to be clear, the 10,007 base poll was conducted 22 Feb - 9 May.

Doublethink is necessary for followers of Wee Brother.

CD13

Whatever the result next year, here's hoping the result is accepted by both in a friendly spirit.

Incidentally, today is the 500th anniversary of the biggest battle (Flodden) ever fought between the Scottish and English kingdoms - a far bigger affair than the pub brawl at Bannockburn.

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

Thanks Carlotta, that is pretty much what I would have expected but it would not surprise me if the main movement if it gets closer is in the DEs.

I think the findings on priorities are a reflection of the impatience caused by this extraordinarily long "campaign". It really would have been better for Scotland if the vote had been this September rather than next. I think that is a common view, hence the criticism. It is not so much that it is wrong of the SNP to give this priority, it is more that we are on hold on a variety of matters for so long.

AlastairMeeks

Commentisfree, but restaurant reviews are sacred:

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2013/sep/07/restaurant-dairy-london#comment-26769693

CarlottaVance

Although Ashcroft does not ask the independence question first (it's fifth after the leader questions) it has the simplest of preambles (unlike YouGov) and is not preceded by leading supportive questions (like Panelbase).

philiph

I would expect an increase, and a substantial one at that, on the acceptance of the SNP prioritising independence as the vote gets closer. It would not be untypical of the electorate to only have a short term view as to the importance and energy the SNP should invest in independence referendum. Those figures may well look very different in May or June 2014 when the referendum is imminent and therefore relevant.

Mick_Pork

As predicted, the right wing idiots and scottish tory surgers who were shrieking with outrage about a poll commissioned by the SNP have no problem whatsoever with ex tory chairman Ashcroft doing the polling or the order of the referendum question now.

Unspoofable.

CarlottaVance

CD13 said:

Whatever the result next year, here's hoping the result is accepted by both in a friendly spirit.

Incidentally, today is the 500th anniversary of the biggest battle (Flodden) ever fought between the Scottish and English kingdoms - a far bigger affair than the pub brawl at Bannockburn.

I think the chances of that are much higher than in Catalonia.....

Plato

Today should be amusing Parly TV - we've Mark Thompson before PAC about what Patten said re payments to staff and other stuff.

You can see them on http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/default.stm after 10am

JackW

Mick_Pork said:

As predicted, the right wing idiots and scottish tory surgers who were shrieking with outrage about a poll commissioned by the SNP have no problem whatsoever with ex tory chairman Ashcroft doing the polling or the order of the referendum question now.

Unspoofable.

In neither case is the paymaster the problem - after all pollsters rarely undertake their craft gratis but rather it is the quality and reputation of the pollster and the disinterested fashion in which the questions are asked that is important.

CarlottaVance

@Mick_Pork - in what way were Ashcroft's lead in questions (identical, about the party leaders) leading in the same way Panelbase were?

What a surprise, no interest in discussing the data - completely predictable!

Mick_Pork

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/besides-as-one-of-my-aunties-put-it.html

Unsurprisingly, the Scotsman has also misrepresented the poll to some extent -

"Researchers also found voters believe the Scottish Government cares more about independence than issues such as jobs, the economy and the NHS, and say this priority is wrong."

Not true on the latter point. We know that 61% of respondents said that the Scottish government should have a different priority from the one it currently has, but since less than half of respondents actually thought that the Scottish government's priority is independence, that isn't sufficient to substantiate the Scotsman's claim.

The referendum voting intention figures from this poll can also be safely filed away as little more than a historical curiosity, as the fieldwork is between four and seven months out of date. (The main referendum question was also asked FIFTH, which ought to instantly destroy the poll's credibility in the eyes of certain unionist commentators if they are interested in maintaining at least a semblance of logical consistency.) The Scotsman valiantly attempt to breathe some relevance into it by pointing to the unusually high sample size, but the reality is that a normal-sized sample of 1000 only carries a very slightly greater margin of error. Meanwhile, the Holyrood voting intention figures (showing SNP leads of five points on the constituency ballot and twelve points on the regional list ballot) are "only" three months out of date.

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/besides-as-one-of-my-aunties-put-it.html

SimonStClare

Morning all

Re: Ashcroft poll on Scottish Independence sample size 10K.

Yes 26% - No 65% - would someone be kind enough to explain how polling over an extended period of 7 months may have influenced this result, if at all. – To be honest, the time period is so unusual imho, that I’m not sure what use it serves or its reliability in reflecting today’s feelings north of the border.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

@Mick_Pork - in what way were Ashcroft's lead in questions (identical, about the party leaders) leading in the same way Panelbase were?

What a surprise, no interest in discussing the data - completely predictable!

It is well out of date and consists of several polls stuck together, as we saw from comments above it contradicts itself. A million miles away from what the result will be. As David said it is likely to be very close indeed, he obviously is more knowledgeable on the position in Scotland than most of the frothers on here.

Mick_Pork

JackW said:

Mick_Pork said:

As predicted, the right wing idiots and scottish tory surgers who were shrieking with outrage about a poll commissioned by the SNP have no problem whatsoever with ex tory chairman Ashcroft doing the polling or the order of the referendum question now.

Unspoofable.

In neither case is the paymaster the problem - after all pollsters rarely undertake their craft gratis but rather it is the quality and reputation of the pollster and the disinterested fashion in which the questions are asked that is important.

So how do we know that this poll was tactical, rather than a dispassionate attempt to uncover the views of the electorate? Well, apart from the obvious point that Lord Ashcroft is Lord Ashcroft, we need look no further than this part of his commentary on the results -

"I also found many voters deeply sceptical about the idea of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers"

Er, no. If you want to know whether voters are deeply sceptical about giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, what you do is ask voters whether they think the Scottish Parliament should be given more powers or not. Lord Ashcroft mysteriously (well, let's face it, not very mysteriously) failed to ask that question, and instead chose to grill his respondents about a string of Tory hobby-horses such as the likelihood of fiscal discipline under devo max. Those results may well be of great interest to him, but shouldn't be of much interest to the rest of us - unless of course we've been hoodwinked by his spin into thinking they mean something that they don't.

But if that part of his commentary is a touch cynical, Ashcroft's closing line is just plain risible -

"Besides, as one of our participants put it, Alex Salmond has quite enough power as it is."

Which is about as meaningful as me saying that I met a guy called Barry down the pub who made some cutting comments about Jackson Carlaw. Seriously, your lordship, a general rule of thumb in polling is that one person's opinion is not statistically significant, no matter how pleasing that opinion may be to your own ears.

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/besides-as-one-of-my-aunties-put-it.html

foxinsoxuk

The social class split is stark, and news to me.

It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.

The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?

As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

Mick_Pork

"The charts say it all and point to the way that NO should be campaigning. Don’t deal with the core issue but attack the Scottish government for giving it the priority it is giving it. "

In other words, rerun the SLAB, SCON and the scottish lib dems (those few that are still left) 2011 scottish election campaign.

Because that worked so well for them in 2011, didn't it?

LOL

Mick_Pork

One day this is finally going to sink in.

Research Service ‏@NAWResearch 17 May

England’s response to devolution: The Report of the McKay Commission: http://bit.ly/13AY0Au @AssemblyWales Research Service #NAWR

CarlottaVance

@malcolmg - yes, you can criticise Ashcroft for the gap between conducting some of the polling and releasing some of the data - but hey, it's his poll and its part of a package of polls.

Also what evidence is there that there has been a significant shift in polling between March/May when the 10k poll was carried out?

Finally, in what sense are four identical questions about the leaders ahead of the independence question "leading" in the same way that the Panelbase lead in questions were?

The same Panelbase that has had to close to new members on independence polling over fears of an organised "Yes" campaign to rig the panel......

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/new-recruits-banned-by-panelbase-from-indyref-polls.1378556935

JackW

@Mick_Pork wrote :

"So how do we know that this poll was tactical, rather than a dispassionate attempt to uncover the views of the electorate? Well, apart from the obvious point that Lord Ashcroft is Lord Ashcroft, we need look no further than this part of his commentary on the results -

"I also found many voters deeply sceptical about the idea of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers"

Er, no. If you want to know whether voters are deeply sceptical about giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, what you do is ask voters whether they think the Scottish Parliament should be given more powers or not. Lord Ashcroft mysteriously (well, let's face it, not very mysteriously) failed to ask that question, and instead chose to grill his respondents about a string of Tory hobby-horses such as the likelihood of fiscal discipline under devo max. Those results may well be of great interest to him, but shouldn't be of much interest to the rest of us - unless of course we've been hoodwinked by his spin into thinking they mean something that they don't.

But if that part of his commentary is a touch cynical, Ashcroft's closing line is just plain risible -

"Besides, as one of our participants put it, Alex Salmond has quite enough power as it is."

Which is about as meaningful as me saying that I met a guy called Barry down the pub who made some cutting comments about Jackson Carlaw. Seriously, your lordship, a general rule of thumb in polling is that one person's opinion is not statistically significant, no matter how pleasing that opinion may be to your own ears."

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/besides-as-one-of-my-aunties-put-it.html



......................................................................

It difficult to begrudge Lord Ashcroft his comments, whether you agree with them or not is another matter. And with publication we may all have our two penny worth as indeed you have.

The important matter is the quality of the raw data - is it a reliable and viable attempt at determining the wishes of the punters ?

NickPalmer

Some of Mick's points about methodology are pretty accurate, and Ashcroft needs to think over whether his huge surveys are justified if they take forever to collect - smaller surveys might be more useful if faster. The additional accuracy of 10K over 1K is not great, as Mick notes.

However, the tide does seem to be running against independence to an extent that it's hard to see it reversed. If it's lost, I'd think that the SNP will struggle in 2015 as they chew over why and what to do next and Labour could benefit there. But the Tories may benefit in England, by being seen - however inaccurately - to have seen off the threat and kept the country together.

Mick_Pork

Poor old calamity Clegg what a shame.

TheIndyPolitics ‏@IndyPolitics 11h

Nick Clegg rocked as ‘depressed’ MP Sarah Teather quits over welfare and immigration policies http://ind.pn/1e66o25

But at least Tiny Blair Cameron is fighting back after his backbenchers humiliated him in a vote. Yet again.

Daily Mirror ‏@DailyMirror 1h

Dozy Prime Minister David Cameron leaves official red box behind on train - to nip to buffet car http://mirr.im/17jSpzC

MonikerDiCanio

foxinsoxuk said:

The social class split is stark, and news to me.

It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.

The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?

As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

The paradox of Salmond's politics of grudge and grievance is that it is failing in dividing up the UK but is succeeding in dividing Scots one from the other.

richardDodd

Porkie..The red box would be about two feet from security men..get real son..

Fat_Steve

Off-Topic,
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/08/labour-unite-falkirk-bullying-claims

Have we got any closer to finding out why the complainants, whose complaints were serious enough to launch a Labour inquiry, suddenly decided to withdraw their complaints?
I find it interesting. Is it not interesting?

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

@malcolmg - yes, you can criticise Ashcroft for the gap between conducting some of the polling and releasing some of the data - but hey, it's his poll and its part of a package of polls.

Also what evidence is there that there has been a significant shift in polling between March/May when the 10k poll was carried out?

Finally, in what sense are four identical questions about the leaders ahead of the independence question "leading" in the same way that the Panelbase lead in questions were?

The same Panelbase that has had to close to new members on independence polling over fears of an organised "Yes" campaign to rig the panel......

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/new-recruits-banned-by-panelbase-from-indyref-polls.1378556935

I do not think much of any of the pollsters but panelbase are not the worst , YouGov have that crown. Panelbase categorically stated that new members had no impact on their last poll and under unionist pressure decided not to let anyone joining after June vote on independence. You will not see the same example made by the unionist pollsters or hear any complaints as long as the poll is slanted their way. All these polls are using leading questions to set up what they want to here.
The NO campaign has nothing to offer except fear and negativity and if they manage to scare enough people then it will be much worse when the reality sets in and will cause us to go through it all again. It is only a case of when it happens, given the neglect and ever increasing poverty due to poor Westminster policies it will never go back to what it was. I would prefer it sooner rather than later but either way it will not change my life but may well save future generations the poor outcome they can expect under Westminster.

TOPPING

NickPalmer said:

Some of Mick's points about methodology are pretty accurate, and Ashcroft needs to think over whether his huge surveys are justified if they take forever to collect - smaller surveys might be more useful if faster. The additional accuracy of 10K over 1K is not great, as Mick notes.

However, the tide does seem to be running against independence to an extent that it's hard to see it reversed. If it's lost, I'd think that the SNP will struggle in 2015 as they chew over why and what to do next and Labour could benefit there. But the Tories may benefit in England, by being seen - however inaccurately - to have seen off the threat and kept the country together.

Labour will benefit a bit. The game plan, and ASalmond gets this as much as small children in Auchtermuchty, is that after the No vote there will be a devomax package offered which he will grasp with both hands.

The fact that we have to go through the actual vote is a facade as irritating as it is pointless.

dr_spyn

Re: Mirror story:- Mr Black, Mr Green. Ms White, & Mr Gray from Vauxhall just happened to be sitting on close by. Perhaps the Mirror should send the reporter off to a lap dancing club, just to make sure that you can look but not touch.

CarlottaVance

JackW said:

And with publication we may all have our two penny worth as indeed you have.

But Pork hasn't!

He's simply cut n'pasted James Kelly, late of this parish!

While the 10k base size does not majorly affect overall accuracy, it does provide robust sub samples:

Net "no":
North East: +33
Lothians: +46

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The social class split is stark, and news to me.

It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.

The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?

As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

The paradox of Salmond's politics of grudge and grievance is that it is failing in dividing up the UK but is succeeding in dividing Scots one from the other.

LOL, give us any example of a division between Scots caused by Salmond.

richardDodd

FS ..Someone somewhere will be chasing it, because it is interesting ..It's always the cover up that gets em....all it takes is one e-mail,one recorded phone call and Bingo..

Mick_Pork

NickPalmer said:

Some of Mick's points about methodology are pretty accurate

The "scot goes pop* blog quoted made those points but they are of course quite obviously problematic for those who treat the tory Lord Ashcroft's polls as if they were a disinterested apolitical figure doing polling out of idle curiosity.

NickPalmer said:

However, the tide does seem to be running against independence to an extent that it's hard to see it reversed.

We heard that from Iain Gray and SLAB continually in advance of the 2011 scottish elections. The fact that Yes was leading in some early polling for the AV referendum also seems to have been missed strangely enough.

The degree of complacency being shown by No is heartening particularly when you look at the logistics of the GOTV operation on the ground and the split in SLAB between "better together" and "united with labour".

It is doubtful that the scottish lib dems and scottish tories are leaving the overwhelming majority of the No campaigning on the ground to SLAB out of kindness. They also have one eye on the scottish elections after the referendum and will be trying to keep their resources to themselves for when they need it most.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, for and against separation?

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

@malcolmg - yes, you can criticise Ashcroft for the gap between conducting some of the polling and releasing some of the data - but hey, it's his poll and its part of a package of polls.

Also what evidence is there that there has been a significant shift in polling between March/May when the 10k poll was carried out?

Finally, in what sense are four identical questions about the leaders ahead of the independence question "leading" in the same way that the Panelbase lead in questions were?

The same Panelbase that has had to close to new members on independence polling over fears of an organised "Yes" campaign to rig the panel......

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/new-recruits-banned-by-panelbase-from-indyref-polls.1378556935

All these polls are using leading questions to set up what they want to here.

In what way are four identical questions about the Scottish party leaders "leading" in the same way as the Panelbase "Do you think Scotland could be a successful independent country"/Who looks out for Scotland better; Holyrood or Westminster"?

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The social class split is stark, and news to me.

It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.

The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?

As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

The paradox of Salmond's politics of grudge and grievance is that it is failing in dividing up the UK but is succeeding in dividing Scots one from the other.

LOL, give us any example of a division between Scots caused by Salmond.

Er Scottish separatism malc ? It's the issue of the day in Scotland or haven't you noticed ?

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The social class split is stark, and news to me.

It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.

The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?

As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

The paradox of Salmond's politics of grudge and grievance is that it is failing in dividing up the UK but is succeeding in dividing Scots one from the other.

LOL, give us any example of a division between Scots caused by Salmond.

How do you account for the differences in the attitude to independence between ABs and DEs?

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

SimonStClare

Fat_Steve said:

Off-Topic,
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/08/labour-unite-falkirk-bullying-claims

Have we got any closer to finding out why the complainants, whose complaints were serious enough to launch a Labour inquiry, suddenly decided to withdraw their complaints?
I find it interesting. Is it not interesting?

Eric Joyce claimed in the media this W/E that the witnesses each received a personal visit in their homes by a Union rep who managed to persuade them the error of their ways.

Today’s word is ‘Intimidation’ (n)
1. To make timid; fill with fear.
2. To coerce or inhibit by or as if by threats.

richardDodd

tim .. I wondered how long it would take for you to parrot the Mirror line.. bit longer than usual
Yes its a red box ,closed, and would be within smacking distance of a security man if anyone went near it .. didn't think you of all people would be that naive.
I wonder if the !st class seat covers were taken off as well .

Morris_Dancer

Mr. StClare, that sounds sinister. I'd advocate an investigation, but writing the words gives me a sense of deja vu.

Alanbrooke

Lots for everyone in the poll. While the age of data is somewhat unfortunate and allows lots of opportunities to discount what people don't like the size of the sample and the differences measured show Yes has a tough job. Given the absolute direness of the campaign this year I'd be hard put to think it will have changed much from the earliest point in February.

Mick_Pork

Fat_Steve said:

Off-Topic,
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/08/labour-unite-falkirk-bullying-claims

Have we got any closer to finding out why the complainants, whose complaints were serious enough to launch a Labour inquiry, suddenly decided to withdraw their complaints?
I find it interesting. Is it not interesting?

Somewhat unsurprising that Falkirk still hasn't been understood on here.

It's not merely who withdrew and who still hasn't but who made the allegations in the first place (both the public and private ones) and why.

Ask wee Dougie and Murphy.

MonikerDiCanio

malcolmg said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The social class split is stark, and news to me.

It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.

The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?

As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

The paradox of Salmond's politics of grudge and grievance is that it is failing in dividing up the UK but is succeeding in dividing Scots one from the other.

LOL, give us any example of a division between Scots caused by Salmond.

I suppose in your lunatic world 100 % of Scots will vote Yes.
You are insane.

richardDodd

Porky .. Even a trainee journalist would bypass Wee Duggie and Murphy, that is not where the story is.

Mick_Pork

malcolmg said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The social class split is stark, and news to me.

It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.

The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?

As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.

CarlottaVance said:

DavidL said:

My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.

Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24

The paradox of Salmond's politics of grudge and grievance is that it is failing in dividing up the UK but is succeeding in dividing Scots one from the other.

LOL, give us any example of a division between Scots caused by Salmond.

The scottish tory surgers and uber Blairites are of course famous for having their finger on the pulse of scottish public opinion.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

@malcolmg - yes, you can criticise Ashcroft for the gap between conducting some of the polling and releasing some of the data - but hey, it's his poll and its part of a package of polls.

Also what evidence is there that there has been a significant shift in polling between March/May when the 10k poll was carried out?

Finally, in what sense are four identical questions about the leaders ahead of the independence question "leading" in the same way that the Panelbase lead in questions were?

The same Panelbase that has had to close to new members on independence polling over fears of an organised "Yes" campaign to rig the panel......

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/new-recruits-banned-by-panelbase-from-indyref-polls.1378556935

ever increasing poverty due to poor Westminster policies

What is the Scottish Government's main priority?
Independence: 49
Economy/jobs: 7

What should be the Scottish Government's main priority:
Economy/Jobs: 41
Independence: 3

GaryDunion

Worth being careful with this. Firstly, while the project as a whole (made up of three separate polls) may be a "mega-sample", these questions were asked of only 1013 and 727 respondents respectively.

Secondly, and more importantly, we must not fall for the No campaign spin in reporting the second question: it doesn't represent all Scots, it excludes all those respondents - 36% - who said the Scottish Government has the right priority.

Cull all of those people from the sample and of course you're going to get an unflattering picture of the SNP, by design.

I wrote a fuller post on this at Bright Green: No campaign straight-up lie about Lord Ashcroft indyref poll.

Blue_rog

Just had a thought. If the independence vote gives a no, what does anyone think of the long term impact on SNP vote share?

Mick_Pork

richardDodd said:

Porky .. Even a trainee journalist would bypass Wee Duggie and Murphy, that is not where the story is.

Does a PB tory even know who Gregor Poynton is?

You just keep foaming at the mouth about unions while some of us are quite aware of the reasons why the Falkirk report won't ever be released willingly by little Ed.

FluffyThoughts

Isn't it sad that, when we in Engerlundt are doing everything to accommodate Scottish independence (big thanks to George Osborne), the bawl-bags oop-norf are still waiting for them to drop? But lets face it: Wee FrEck is an incompentent fool so the electorate - sadly - is not to blame.

Had he chosen to offer a positive, unhinged future for an independent Scotland then the Scots people would be been as supportive for the independence case as we dahn-Sarf are. He did not; instead he offered no more then disparaging hatred and vile comparisons to an English nation caste from the directors-couch of Mel Gibson.

A pathetic campaign from a poor excuse of a politician. How long more do we English have to suffer...?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dunion (you're not a French union baron, are you?), 1,000 is the usual sample size for a poll, so that's ok.

Edited extra bit: welcome to pb.com. Sorry for missing that off before, I was interrupted halfway through writing the post.

philiph

tim said:

richardDodd said:

Porkie..The red box would be about two feet from security men..get real son..

We have security services who let you take photos of the PM's red box, who knew?

After the daughter in the pub incident and now this I know one thing, you don't want to find yorself behind Dave at a free bar or an all you can eat buffet.
He may be a lazy fop but woe betide anyone who gets between him and his refuelling.

Or


Man of the People ventures to do his own shopping in the Buffet Car.

Theuniondivvie

Bit of a mess of a poll - 7 months? Not sure whose feathers will be particularly ruffled, but the fact that Ashcroft tweeted that as a precursor indicates that he's beginning to suffer a bit of pollster vanity.

Ashcroft does his usual masterful summation of the conclusions he wants drawn.

'What proportion of Scots say they have a clear understanding of the powers of the Scottish Parliament? Fourteen years after Holyrood opened for business, the number is surprisingly low.'

It must also be surprisingly low for Westminster presumably, with the proviso that those questioned considered MSPs between 2-5 times more in touch, committed, doing a good job and less interested in their careers than MPs. In addition, the top three achievements of Holyrood by some distance are only currently upheld by the SNP which explains why none of the other parties look like getting a foot in the door anytime soon.

Still, much entertainment will be had from the PB Transparent Riggers explaining why asking the independence question as the 12th of 12 is entirely reasonable, and indeed a VERY GOOD THING.

TGOHF

"Something else" at 12% surely is "qualify for a major soccer tournament" ?

Eck surely is tactically all for keeping the current SFA regime in place as they make his government look competent in comparison.

CarlottaVance

Theuniondivvie said:

Still, much entertainment will be had from the PB Transparent Riggers explaining why asking the independence question as the 12th of 12 is entirely reasonable, and indeed a VERY GOOD THING.

5th of 5.......and while its a pity it wasn't asked first, four identical questions on attitudes to the Scottish leaders can hardly be as leading as the Panelbase prompts.....

Alanbrooke

Theuniondivvie said:

Bit of a mess of a poll - 7 months? Not sure whose feathers will be particularly ruffled, but the fact that Ashcroft tweeted that as a precursor indicates that he's beginning to suffer a bit of pollster vanity.

Ashcroft does his usual masterful summation of the conclusions he wants drawn.

'What proportion of Scots say they have a clear understanding of the powers of the Scottish Parliament? Fourteen years after Holyrood opened for business, the number is surprisingly low.'

It must also be surprisingly low for Westminster presumably, with the proviso that those questioned considered MSPs between 2-5 times more in touch, committed, doing a good job and less interested in their careers than MPs. In addition, the top three achievements of Holyrood by some distance are only currently upheld by the SNP which explains why none of the other parties look like getting a foot in the door anytime soon.

Still, much entertainment will be had from the PB Transparent Riggers explaining why asking the independence question as the 12th of 12 is entirely reasonable, and indeed a VERY GOOD THING.

I can understand you not liking the results - there are some I don't like either - but even WoS is less critical than that. I suspect the value of the poll will come out when passions have cooled on both sides and people start to look at the data more objectively. Like it or lump it it's one of the biggest sample sizes going and there are pointers for everyone on the issues they need to address.

MonikerDiCanio

Theuniondivvie said:

Bit of a mess of a poll - 7 months? Not sure whose feathers will be particularly ruffled, but the fact that Ashcroft tweeted that as a precursor indicates that he's beginning to suffer a bit of pollster vanity.

Ashcroft does his usual masterful summation of the conclusions he wants drawn.

'What proportion of Scots say they have a clear understanding of the powers of the Scottish Parliament? Fourteen years after Holyrood opened for business, the number is surprisingly low.'

It must also be surprisingly low for Westminster presumably, with the proviso that those questioned considered MSPs between 2-5 times more in touch, committed, doing a good job and less interested in their careers than MPs. In addition, the top three achievements of Holyrood by some distance are only currently upheld by the SNP which explains why none of the other parties look like getting a foot in the door anytime soon.

Still, much entertainment will be had from the PB Transparent Riggers explaining why asking the independence question as the 12th of 12 is entirely reasonable, and indeed a VERY GOOD THING.

The SNP should commission and word another poll from Panelbase with its Souter/Lottery/Death bed millions. Money well spent if it'll cheer up the cult members.

Grandiose

CarlottaVance said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Still, much entertainment will be had from the PB Transparent Riggers explaining why asking the independence question as the 12th of 12 is entirely reasonable, and indeed a VERY GOOD THING.

5th of 5.......and while its a pity it wasn't asked first, four identical questions on attitudes to the Scottish leaders can hardly be as leading as the Panelbase prompts.....

Voting intention in the referendum isn't the thing I'd take from a poll that took seven months to complete (why? was it halted?) anyway and even Lord Ashcroft puts it right down the bottom of the article.

CarlottaVance

GaryDunion said:

the second question: it doesn't represent all Scots, it excludes all those respondents - 36% - who said the Scottish Government has the right priority.

Good catch - and welcome to PB!

Of course, one might argue that only asking those who are not happy with the Scottish government's priority what it should be is reasonable, and not part of an anti-SNP plot, but we'll leave that for the moment.

Out of curiosity, along with Mr Pork, you seem keen on language such as:

"Tory sugar daddy and Viceroy of Belize, Lord Ashcroft:"

What do you believe that adds to the debate?

CarlottaVance

Grandiose said:

CarlottaVance said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Still, much entertainment will be had from the PB Transparent Riggers explaining why asking the independence question as the 12th of 12 is entirely reasonable, and indeed a VERY GOOD THING.

5th of 5.......and while its a pity it wasn't asked first, four identical questions on attitudes to the Scottish leaders can hardly be as leading as the Panelbase prompts.....

Voting intention in the referendum isn't the thing I'd take from a poll that took seven months to complete (why? was it halted?) anyway and even Lord Ashcroft puts it right down the bottom of the article.

It didn't. Fieldwork was 22 Feb to 9 May.

richardDodd

Porky .. no foaming at the mouth about Unions from me .. I do despair at the way they are going tho, having been a Union officer and activist and Shop steward for many years.
Twould appear, from what has already been discussed that some minds were changed regarding thr Falkirk affair, any sprog reporter will see this as a chance to make his name..
It is always the cover up Porky.
Have you ever been a Union official Porky?

Theuniondivvie

Alanbrooke said:

I can understand you not liking the results - there are some I don't like either - but even WoS is less critical than that. I suspect the value of the poll will come out when passions have cooled on both sides and people start to look at the data more objectively. Like it or lump it it's one of the biggest sample sizes going and there are pointers for everyone on the issues they need to address.

I haven't checked in with WoS yet
I'm not disputing that there isn't valuable information in the poll(s), just that it's presented as an unholy guddle. If Ashcroft had released it as separate polls over the 7 months he would have been doing a bigger service to the debate. It's getting to the stage that any poll has a very short shelf life, and I'm not sure there's that much time for objective analysis.
Still, I couldn't resist a snigger at the Good Lord saying that Davidson being slightly more recognisable than Lamont & Rennie was doing 'least badly' - yeah, except for the -20 favourability rating...

Mick_Pork

CarlottaVance said:

GaryDunion said:

the second question: it doesn't represent all Scots, it excludes all those respondents - 36% - who said the Scottish Government has the right priority.

Good catch - and welcome to PB!

Of course, one might argue that only asking those who are not happy with the Scottish government's priority what it should be is reasonable, and not part of an anti-SNP plot, but we'll leave that for the moment.

Out of curiosity, along with Mr Pork, you seem keen on language such as:

"Tory sugar daddy and Viceroy of Belize, Lord Ashcroft:"

What do you believe that adds to the debate?

Presumably as much as Tiny Blair Cameron calling the kippers "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" did to the EU referendum (the new one not his "cast-iron" Lisbon referendum) or "swivel-eyed loons" did to whether tory activist should get involved in the gay marriage row in the tory party.

Amusingly, Conhome is also supposedly some sinister secret kipper front in the eyes of a few deranged tories.

anotherDave

Interesting to see UKIP level with LDs in Holyrood VI. I thought they'd be nowhere.

Constituency vote (p.20)
Con: 15%, Lab: 35%, LD: 5%, SNP: 40%, UKIP: 4%

List vote (p.33)
Con: 10%, Lab: 24%, LD13%, SNP: 36%, UKIP: 11%

24% of 18-24 age group chose UKIP!

Plato

Oh dear me.

Unite the union 'paid no tax in 2011 and 2012'
Unite, one of the country’s biggest public sector unions, did not pay any tax in 2011 and 2012, despite owning £51.6 million of stocks and shares, it has been claimed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10294973/Unite-the-union-paid-no-tax-in-2011-and-2012.html

Evil Tory Scum.

Alanbrooke

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

I can understand you not liking the results - there are some I don't like either - but even WoS is less critical than that. I suspect the value of the poll will come out when passions have cooled on both sides and people start to look at the data more objectively. Like it or lump it it's one of the biggest sample sizes going and there are pointers for everyone on the issues they need to address.

I haven't checked in with WoS yet
I'm not disputing that there isn't valuable information in the poll(s), just that it's presented as an unholy guddle. If Ashcroft had released it as separate polls over the 7 months he would have been doing a bigger service to the debate. It's getting to the stage that any poll has a very short shelf life, and I'm not sure there's that much time for objective analysis.
Still, I couldn't resist a snigger at the Good Lord saying that Davidson being slightly more recognisable than Lamont & Rennie was doing 'least badly' - yeah, except for the -20 favourability rating...

Then you'll enjoy the WoS analysis of the Holyrood opposition! ;-).

TGOHF

Interesting that posts about a Guardian article seem to disappear - interesting..

CarlottaVance

TGOHF said:

Interesting that posts about a Guardian article seem to disappear - interesting..

PB Mod last night asked for no discussion of the article as it refers to phone hacking.

Mick_Pork

richardDodd said:

Porky .. no foaming at the mouth about Unions from me .. I do despair at the way they are going tho, having been a Union officer and activist and Shop steward for many years.
Twould appear, from what has already been discussed that some minds were changed regarding thr Falkirk affair, any sprog reporter will see this as a chance to make his name..
It is always the cover up Porky.
Have you ever been a Union official Porky?

No Doddy but even Lamont's hilarious silence over Falkirk hasn't stopped the story being covered in depth here in scotland. Nor is it remotely difficult to work out who bounced little Ed into his somewhat short lived 'stance' against the Falkirk selections and why.

anotherDave

"A report by the American Chemistry Council said shale gas has given the US a "profound and sustained competitive advantage" in chemicals, plastics, and related industries. Consultants IHS also expect US chemical output to double by 2020, while Europe's output will have fallen by a third. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10295045/Brussels-fears-European-industrial-massacre-sparked-by-energy-costs.html

Chemicals used to be cited as one of the UK's strengths.

TGOHF

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

Interesting that posts about a Guardian article seem to disappear - interesting..

PB Mod last night asked for no discussion of the article as it refers to phone hacking.

Pathetic.

geoffw

The Scottish independence campaign turns too much on personalities personality. Ashcroft's Conservative home piece concludes:
"Besides, as one of our participants put it, Alex Salmond has quite enough power as it is."
Quite so.

TGOHF

Plato said:

Oh dear me.

Unite the union 'paid no tax in 2011 and 2012'
Unite, one of the country’s biggest public sector unions, did not pay any tax in 2011 and 2012, despite owning £51.6 million of stocks and shares, it has been claimed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10294973/Unite-the-union-paid-no-tax-in-2011-and-2012.html

Evil Tory Scum.

Boris's article in the Tele is worth a read too.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10294976/Milisecond-n-the-time-it-takes-Ed-to-do-the-unions-bidding.html

RichardNabavi

Lord Ashcroft certainly does a great service by organising and financing these major polls, and sensible political punters won't be distracted by 'ham'-fisted attempts to shoot the messenger.

The bottom line is that, however you look at it, a Yes result looks out of reach, unfortunately. I have been toying with the idea that maybe the odds had shifted too far towards No, but I'm finding it hard to convince myself that even the 7.5 available from Coral on independence by 2020 is good value.

RodCrosby

Idiot Hague blaming all deaths and refugees from the civil war on the Assad regime..

AndreaParma_82

The Scottish Herald was suggesting some frontrunners for Dunfermline nominations

Daughter of an MSP, daughter of a former MSP and daughter of a former TUC Chairman for Labour AWS

Shirley-Ann for SNP

Any more rumous?

Mick_Pork

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

I can understand you not liking the results - there are some I don't like either - but even WoS is less critical than that. I suspect the value of the poll will come out when passions have cooled on both sides and people start to look at the data more objectively. Like it or lump it it's one of the biggest sample sizes going and there are pointers for everyone on the issues they need to address.

I haven't checked in with WoS yet
I'm not disputing that there isn't valuable information in the poll(s), just that it's presented as an unholy guddle. If Ashcroft had released it as separate polls over the 7 months he would have been doing a bigger service to the debate. It's getting to the stage that any poll has a very short shelf life, and I'm not sure there's that much time for objective analysis.
Still, I couldn't resist a snigger at the Good Lord saying that Davidson being slightly more recognisable than Lamont & Rennie was doing 'least badly' - yeah, except for the -20 favourability rating...

Only a comically inept tory spinner could possibly think Lord Ashcroft does his polling out of idle curiosity or for a laugh.

He expends time and money on them for a reason and it's certainly not because he's some apolitical figure obsessed by psephology, unless you are hilariously gullible.

MonikerDiCanio

AndreaParma_82 said:

The Scottish Herald was suggesting some frontrunners for Dunfermline nominations

Daughter of an MSP, daughter of a former MSP and daughter of a former TUC Chairman for Labour AWS

Shirley-Ann for SNP

Any more rumous?

Daughters of the Devolution.

stodge

Morning all

I've been trying to listen to John Kerry's Press Conference at the FCO.

Rambling and bordering on the incoherent - him (and me sometimes).

richardDodd

Porky...once again you are missig the point, not entirely rare for you..It is the cover up and why?.. that is the story
Bit too difficult for you I know.. but do try harder.

dr_spyn

Kerry seemed to think that the Munich Agreement meant air strikes and ground war in Czechoslovakia in 1938.

Mick_Pork

richardDodd said:

Porky...once again you are missig the point, not entirely rare for you..It is the cover up and why?.. that is the story
Bit too difficult for you I know.. but do try harder.

Really Doddy? You think the reasons for the Falkirk report and who made the original allegations are somehow unrelated to the cover up do you?

Stick to defending Tiny Blair Cameron and his incompetent attempts at getting his own backbenches on side for his idiotic posturing.

richardDodd

Porky.. you will need another shovel soon..
I missed your answer to the question.. Were you ever a member of a Union?

Theuniondivvie

Mick_Pork said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

I can understand you not liking the results - there are some I don't like either - but even WoS is less critical than that. I suspect the value of the poll will come out when passions have cooled on both sides and people start to look at the data more objectively. Like it or lump it it's one of the biggest sample sizes going and there are pointers for everyone on the issues they need to address.

I haven't checked in with WoS yet
I'm not disputing that there isn't valuable information in the poll(s), just that it's presented as an unholy guddle. If Ashcroft had released it as separate polls over the 7 months he would have been doing a bigger service to the debate. It's getting to the stage that any poll has a very short shelf life, and I'm not sure there's that much time for objective analysis.
Still, I couldn't resist a snigger at the Good Lord saying that Davidson being slightly more recognisable than Lamont & Rennie was doing 'least badly' - yeah, except for the -20 favourability rating...

Only a comically inept tory spinner could possibly think Lord Ashcroft does his polling out of idle curiosity or for a laugh.

He expends time and money on them for a reason and it's certainly not because he's some apolitical figure obsessed by psephology, unless you are hilariously gullible.

Yep, one might almost think Ashcroft deliberately crams in an excess of data so he can cherrypick what he likes from it.
Still, his polls provide one of the great recurring rituals of PB, the Nabavi kissing of the Ashcroft ring.

AndreaParma_82

The Holyrood voting intentions are bad for SLAB for a mid term situation. Maybe that's why they called back Iain Gray!
The actual votes cast in recent by-elections seem to point to a picture similar to 2012 locals with the 2 parties neck and neck (which isn't particularly good for midterm either but at least better than some polls).

MikeK

More on the cosy BBC love in (as in money)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/stephenpollard/100234966/we-took-your-60m-because-were-worth-it/

Wonder if we will really see some sparks in parliament this week?

stodge

dr_spyn said:

Kerry seemed to think that the Munich Agreement meant air strikes and ground war in Czechoslovakia in 1938.

It was all desperate stuff from Kerry - he's clearly furious with us for not supporting the interventionist line.

SimonStClare

richardDodd said:

It is the cover up and why?.. that is the story

It seems clear to me that the only way to get to the bottom of this murky story is for an Independent Inquiry to be held.

If no union thuggery or intimidation was involved in the decision to retract statements by the main witness/witnesses, as Unite claim – Then they should have no problem endorsing such a proposal.

"Union cover up during the Falkirk by election."

According to the Sunday Times, the reason Labour have said there was no wrong doing by the Unite union , was because union officials leant on the chief witness & his wife & said he'd lose his job if he didn't withdraw his allegations.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/...cle1311001.ece

“Labour’s outgoing Labour MP for the constituency, Eric Joyce, yesterday alleged witnesses had been “prevailed upon” to withdraw statements.

He said: “In my view they [Unite] stepped outside the rules and the evidence for that now seems to have been withdrawn by the key people. But I don’t think that really leaves a credible result as far as anyone is concerned.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/427765/Trouble-for-Ed-Miliband-Labour-in-civil-war

PBModerator

The Chris Huhne story is off limits.

Any repeat offenders ignoring this warning will have their posting privileges withdrawn <\b>

DavidL

tim said:

@DavidL

Cautious so far?
He declared growth established recovery on track out of the danger zone and the UK AAA status secure in 2010-11.
Three years of no growth, £240 extra borrowing and the loss of AAA status later and he's claiming vindication?

Still on that Tim. From David Smith on 25th August:

"In June 2010, at the time of Osborne’s June 2010 emergency budget, the OBR predicted £354bn of borrowing during the coalition’s first three years, partly on the back of a recovery strengthing from 1.2% growth in 2010 to 2.3% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012.

In the event, the coalition borrowed a little more, £374bn, despite a big growth undershoot. The numbers we have at present for growth over that period are 1.7% for 2010, 1.1% 2011 and just 0.2% 2012."

So £20bn out in 3 years. Probably the most accurate estimates we have ever had. Of course borrowing should have been higher at the start and lower by now but if growth continues at the current rate for any period of time we should start to catch up.

In 2010 Osborne firstly had to persuade the markets that we had a credible plan that meant lending us the huge sums we needed to borrow was a good idea. He was also right that his strategy and emergency budget brought us back into the land of sanity from where the previous government had abandoned us for electoral reasons.

Osborne has been cautious and rightly so. From today's telegraph:
"Mr Osborne will say that major risks to the recovery remain, warning that voters face more years of public spending restraints. He will also admit that ministers must do more to help household budgets.

But his broadly positive tone reflects a growing belief among senior Government figures that the economic mood of the nation has taken a decisive turn for the better, offering a potential political boost for the Coalition and the Conservatives in particular."

Hard to argue with that.

Mick_Pork

Theuniondivvie said:

Mick_Pork said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

I can understand you not liking the results - there are some I don't like either - but even WoS is less critical than that. I suspect the value of the poll will come out when passions have cooled on both sides and people start to look at the data more objectively. Like it or lump it it's one of the biggest sample sizes going and there are pointers for everyone on the issues they need to address.

I haven't checked in with WoS yet
I'm not disputing that there isn't valuable information in the poll(s), just that it's presented as an unholy guddle. If Ashcroft had released it as separate polls over the 7 months he would have been doing a bigger service to the debate. It's getting to the stage that any poll has a very short shelf life, and I'm not sure there's that much time for objective analysis.
Still, I couldn't resist a snigger at the Good Lord saying that Davidson being slightly more recognisable than Lamont & Rennie was doing 'least badly' - yeah, except for the -20 favourability rating...

Only a comically inept tory spinner could possibly think Lord Ashcroft does his polling out of idle curiosity or for a laugh.

He expends time and money on them for a reason and it's certainly not because he's some apolitical figure obsessed by psephology, unless you are hilariously gullible.

Yep, one might almost think Ashcroft deliberately crams in an excess of data so he can cherrypick what he likes from it.
Still, his polls provide one of the great recurring rituals of PB, the Nabavi kissing of the Ashcroft ring.

Ashcroft saw what happened when Cameron was elected leader and learned the lesson. Specifically the infamous GOP pollster/strategist Frank Luntz and the effect he had when he focus grouped the public on Newsnight during the leadership election.