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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mismatch between what Scottish people think their government should be doing and their perception of what it is doing
There is a mega-sample Michael Ashcroft poll out this morning which I think highlights the biggest challenge facing YES – that Scottish people don’t think it should be the priority that the SNP is making it.
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I know the feeling - Mrs Jack W thinks Imelda Marcos, I think Sandy Shaw - Surely one pair for town and one for the country is enough for any well heeled individual !!
The findings also point to another potential problem for the SNP. That 3% in the first question essentially represents the SNP's minimal core vote. Beyond that, they're polling based on competence, leadership, local factors, being 'not the others', and so on. Given that they've polled over 40% before, that's a huge score that's vulnerable. That said, for the moment, simply being 'not the others' may be enough.
The flip side of that is UKIP's position. Mike has frequently pointed out the low salience of the EU as a topic, and rightly so. However, what these figures show is just how well a party can do even when its core policy doesn't have deep and wide resonance, providing that other factors are flowing with it.
What is Scottish Govt main priority;
Independence: 41
Economy/jobs: 14
Is that the right priority?
Yes: 69
No: 28
What should be Scottish Govt main priority:
Economy/jobs: 40
Independence: 17
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Scottish-Political-Attitudes-poll.pdf
Once again we owe Lord Ashcroft our gratitude for this insight - to be clear, the 10,007 base poll was conducted 22 Feb - 9 May.
What I am also finding strange is the very wide differences in the polling by different organisations. I have read that, somewhat counter-intuitively, polling companies find it more difficult to poll for a one off yes/no than they do for traditional elections where they can test past voting records, liklihood to vote, spirals of silence etc over a series of elections refining their results.
In short, encouraged as I am by the majority of the polling I think the Unionists have to be cautious and not assume that anything is in the bag. My gut feel is that those who flourish under the current system, the middle/upper classes, will vote no emphatically. Those who don't flourish will vote yes. There is more of the latter but a lower percentage will probably vote. I still think this is going to be closer than this and other polls show.
Net "no":
18-24: +36
65+: +51
The poll seems to have a lot lower level of "don't knows" (10%) than we've seen in other polls - perhaps because (it appears) they only prompted yes/no.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Scotland-10k-poll-Full-tables.pdf
Although it seems to have low priority I'm not sure attacking the SNP for giving independence (its raison d'etre) so much attention is legitimate. After all, that's the whole point of the party, and they won an outright majority.
AB: +49
DE: +24
10th September 0900hrs - Return of my ARSE from summer break.
18th September 0900hrs - First McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection - Precisely one out from the event.
Whatever the result next year, here's hoping the result is accepted by both in a friendly spirit.
Incidentally, today is the 500th anniversary of the biggest battle (Flodden) ever fought between the Scottish and English kingdoms - a far bigger affair than the pub brawl at Bannockburn.
I think the findings on priorities are a reflection of the impatience caused by this extraordinarily long "campaign". It really would have been better for Scotland if the vote had been this September rather than next. I think that is a common view, hence the criticism. It is not so much that it is wrong of the SNP to give this priority, it is more that we are on hold on a variety of matters for so long.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2013/sep/07/restaurant-dairy-london#comment-26769693
Unspoofable.
You can see them on http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/default.stm after 10am
What a surprise, no interest in discussing the data - completely predictable!
Re: Ashcroft poll on Scottish Independence sample size 10K.
Yes 26% - No 65% - would someone be kind enough to explain how polling over an extended period of 7 months may have influenced this result, if at all. – To be honest, the time period is so unusual imho, that I’m not sure what use it serves or its reliability in reflecting today’s feelings north of the border.
It seems that the economic case for independence has not convinced, and may well suffer from so many ABs arguing against.
The intrresting bit is what the SNP does after it loses. Will it implode as post 78, or will it revise its policies to be less seperatist and concentrate on other policies, becoming the natural party of govt of a devolved Scotland?
As the SNP follows an EV4EL policy in Westminster, I would be happier with the latter.
In other words, rerun the SLAB, SCON and the scottish lib dems (those few that are still left) 2011 scottish election campaign.
Because that worked so well for them in 2011, didn't it?
LOL
Also what evidence is there that there has been a significant shift in polling between March/May when the 10k poll was carried out?
Finally, in what sense are four identical questions about the leaders ahead of the independence question "leading" in the same way that the Panelbase lead in questions were?
The same Panelbase that has had to close to new members on independence polling over fears of an organised "Yes" campaign to rig the panel......
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/new-recruits-banned-by-panelbase-from-indyref-polls.1378556935
"So how do we know that this poll was tactical, rather than a dispassionate attempt to uncover the views of the electorate? Well, apart from the obvious point that Lord Ashcroft is Lord Ashcroft, we need look no further than this part of his commentary on the results -
"I also found many voters deeply sceptical about the idea of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers"
Er, no. If you want to know whether voters are deeply sceptical about giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, what you do is ask voters whether they think the Scottish Parliament should be given more powers or not. Lord Ashcroft mysteriously (well, let's face it, not very mysteriously) failed to ask that question, and instead chose to grill his respondents about a string of Tory hobby-horses such as the likelihood of fiscal discipline under devo max. Those results may well be of great interest to him, but shouldn't be of much interest to the rest of us - unless of course we've been hoodwinked by his spin into thinking they mean something that they don't.
But if that part of his commentary is a touch cynical, Ashcroft's closing line is just plain risible -
"Besides, as one of our participants put it, Alex Salmond has quite enough power as it is."
Which is about as meaningful as me saying that I met a guy called Barry down the pub who made some cutting comments about Jackson Carlaw. Seriously, your lordship, a general rule of thumb in polling is that one person's opinion is not statistically significant, no matter how pleasing that opinion may be to your own ears."
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/besides-as-one-of-my-aunties-put-it.html
......................................................................
It difficult to begrudge Lord Ashcroft his comments, whether you agree with them or not is another matter. And with publication we may all have our two penny worth as indeed you have.
The important matter is the quality of the raw data - is it a reliable and viable attempt at determining the wishes of the punters ?
However, the tide does seem to be running against independence to an extent that it's hard to see it reversed. If it's lost, I'd think that the SNP will struggle in 2015 as they chew over why and what to do next and Labour could benefit there. But the Tories may benefit in England, by being seen - however inaccurately - to have seen off the threat and kept the country together.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/08/labour-unite-falkirk-bullying-claims
Have we got any closer to finding out why the complainants, whose complaints were serious enough to launch a Labour inquiry, suddenly decided to withdraw their complaints?
I find it interesting. Is it not interesting?
The NO campaign has nothing to offer except fear and negativity and if they manage to scare enough people then it will be much worse when the reality sets in and will cause us to go through it all again. It is only a case of when it happens, given the neglect and ever increasing poverty due to poor Westminster policies it will never go back to what it was. I would prefer it sooner rather than later but either way it will not change my life but may well save future generations the poor outcome they can expect under Westminster.
The fact that we have to go through the actual vote is a facade as irritating as it is pointless.
He's simply cut n'pasted James Kelly, late of this parish!
While the 10k base size does not majorly affect overall accuracy, it does provide robust sub samples:
Net "no":
North East: +33
Lothians: +46
The degree of complacency being shown by No is heartening particularly when you look at the logistics of the GOTV operation on the ground and the split in SLAB between "better together" and "united with labour".
It is doubtful that the scottish lib dems and scottish tories are leaving the overwhelming majority of the No campaigning on the ground to SLAB out of kindness. They also have one eye on the scottish elections after the referendum and will be trying to keep their resources to themselves for when they need it most.
Net "no":
AB: +49
DE: +24
Today’s word is ‘Intimidation’ (n)
1. To make timid; fill with fear.
2. To coerce or inhibit by or as if by threats.
Yes its a red box ,closed, and would be within smacking distance of a security man if anyone went near it .. didn't think you of all people would be that naive.
I wonder if the !st class seat covers were taken off as well .
It's not merely who withdrew and who still hasn't but who made the allegations in the first place (both the public and private ones) and why.
Ask wee Dougie and Murphy.
You are insane.
The scottish tory surgers and uber Blairites are of course famous for having their finger on the pulse of scottish public opinion.
Independence: 49
Economy/jobs: 7
What should be the Scottish Government's main priority:
Economy/Jobs: 41
Independence: 3
Secondly, and more importantly, we must not fall for the No campaign spin in reporting the second question: it doesn't represent all Scots, it excludes all those respondents - 36% - who said the Scottish Government has the right priority.
Cull all of those people from the sample and of course you're going to get an unflattering picture of the SNP, by design.
I wrote a fuller post on this at Bright Green: No campaign straight-up lie about Lord Ashcroft indyref poll.
You just keep foaming at the mouth about unions while some of us are quite aware of the reasons why the Falkirk report won't ever be released willingly by little Ed.
Had he chosen to offer a positive, unhinged future for an independent Scotland then the Scots people would be been as supportive for the independence case as we dahn-Sarf are. He did not; instead he offered no more then disparaging hatred and vile comparisons to an English nation caste from the directors-couch of Mel Gibson.
A pathetic campaign from a poor excuse of a politician. How long more do we English have to suffer...?
Edited extra bit: welcome to pb.com. Sorry for missing that off before, I was interrupted halfway through writing the post.
Or
Man of the People ventures to do his own shopping in the Buffet Car.
Ashcroft does his usual masterful summation of the conclusions he wants drawn.
'What proportion of Scots say they have a clear understanding of the powers of the Scottish Parliament? Fourteen years after Holyrood opened for business, the number is surprisingly low.'
It must also be surprisingly low for Westminster presumably, with the proviso that those questioned considered MSPs between 2-5 times more in touch, committed, doing a good job and less interested in their careers than MPs. In addition, the top three achievements of Holyrood by some distance are only currently upheld by the SNP which explains why none of the other parties look like getting a foot in the door anytime soon.
Still, much entertainment will be had from the PB Transparent Riggers explaining why asking the independence question as the 12th of 12 is entirely reasonable, and indeed a VERY GOOD THING.
Eck surely is tactically all for keeping the current SFA regime in place as they make his government look competent in comparison.
Of course, one might argue that only asking those who are not happy with the Scottish government's priority what it should be is reasonable, and not part of an anti-SNP plot, but we'll leave that for the moment.
Out of curiosity, along with Mr Pork, you seem keen on language such as:
"Tory sugar daddy and Viceroy of Belize, Lord Ashcroft:"
What do you believe that adds to the debate?
Twould appear, from what has already been discussed that some minds were changed regarding thr Falkirk affair, any sprog reporter will see this as a chance to make his name..
It is always the cover up Porky.
Have you ever been a Union official Porky?
I'm not disputing that there isn't valuable information in the poll(s), just that it's presented as an unholy guddle. If Ashcroft had released it as separate polls over the 7 months he would have been doing a bigger service to the debate. It's getting to the stage that any poll has a very short shelf life, and I'm not sure there's that much time for objective analysis.
Still, I couldn't resist a snigger at the Good Lord saying that Davidson being slightly more recognisable than Lamont & Rennie was doing 'least badly' - yeah, except for the -20 favourability rating...
Amusingly, Conhome is also supposedly some sinister secret kipper front in the eyes of a few deranged tories.
Constituency vote (p.20)
Con: 15%, Lab: 35%, LD: 5%, SNP: 40%, UKIP: 4%
List vote (p.33)
Con: 10%, Lab: 24%, LD13%, SNP: 36%, UKIP: 11%
24% of 18-24 age group chose UKIP!
Unite the union 'paid no tax in 2011 and 2012'
Unite, one of the country’s biggest public sector unions, did not pay any tax in 2011 and 2012, despite owning £51.6 million of stocks and shares, it has been claimed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10294973/Unite-the-union-paid-no-tax-in-2011-and-2012.html
Evil Tory Scum.
No Doddy but even Lamont's hilarious silence over Falkirk hasn't stopped the story being covered in depth here in scotland. Nor is it remotely difficult to work out who bounced little Ed into his somewhat short lived 'stance' against the Falkirk selections and why.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10295045/Brussels-fears-European-industrial-massacre-sparked-by-energy-costs.html
Chemicals used to be cited as one of the UK's strengths.
personalitiespersonality. Ashcroft's Conservative home piece concludes:"Besides, as one of our participants put it, Alex Salmond has quite enough power as it is."
Quite so.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10294976/Milisecond-n-the-time-it-takes-Ed-to-do-the-unions-bidding.html
The bottom line is that, however you look at it, a Yes result looks out of reach, unfortunately. I have been toying with the idea that maybe the odds had shifted too far towards No, but I'm finding it hard to convince myself that even the 7.5 available from Coral on independence by 2020 is good value.
Daughter of an MSP, daughter of a former MSP and daughter of a former TUC Chairman for Labour AWS
Shirley-Ann for SNP
Any more rumous?
He expends time and money on them for a reason and it's certainly not because he's some apolitical figure obsessed by psephology, unless you are hilariously gullible.
I've been trying to listen to John Kerry's Press Conference at the FCO.
Rambling and bordering on the incoherent - him (and me sometimes).
Bit too difficult for you I know.. but do try harder.
Stick to defending Tiny Blair Cameron and his incompetent attempts at getting his own backbenches on side for his idiotic posturing.
I missed your answer to the question.. Were you ever a member of a Union?
Still, his polls provide one of the great recurring rituals of PB, the Nabavi kissing of the Ashcroft ring.
The actual votes cast in recent by-elections seem to point to a picture similar to 2012 locals with the 2 parties neck and neck (which isn't particularly good for midterm either but at least better than some polls).
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/stephenpollard/100234966/we-took-your-60m-because-were-worth-it/
Wonder if we will really see some sparks in parliament this week?
If no union thuggery or intimidation was involved in the decision to retract statements by the main witness/witnesses, as Unite claim – Then they should have no problem endorsing such a proposal.
"Union cover up during the Falkirk by election."
According to the Sunday Times, the reason Labour have said there was no wrong doing by the Unite union , was because union officials leant on the chief witness & his wife & said he'd lose his job if he didn't withdraw his allegations.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/...cle1311001.ece
“Labour’s outgoing Labour MP for the constituency, Eric Joyce, yesterday alleged witnesses had been “prevailed upon” to withdraw statements.
He said: “In my view they [Unite] stepped outside the rules and the evidence for that now seems to have been withdrawn by the key people. But I don’t think that really leaves a credible result as far as anyone is concerned.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/427765/Trouble-for-Ed-Miliband-Labour-in-civil-war
Any repeat offenders ignoring this warning will have their posting privileges withdrawn <\b>
"In June 2010, at the time of Osborne’s June 2010 emergency budget, the OBR predicted £354bn of borrowing during the coalition’s first three years, partly on the back of a recovery strengthing from 1.2% growth in 2010 to 2.3% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012.
In the event, the coalition borrowed a little more, £374bn, despite a big growth undershoot. The numbers we have at present for growth over that period are 1.7% for 2010, 1.1% 2011 and just 0.2% 2012."
So £20bn out in 3 years. Probably the most accurate estimates we have ever had. Of course borrowing should have been higher at the start and lower by now but if growth continues at the current rate for any period of time we should start to catch up.
In 2010 Osborne firstly had to persuade the markets that we had a credible plan that meant lending us the huge sums we needed to borrow was a good idea. He was also right that his strategy and emergency budget brought us back into the land of sanity from where the previous government had abandoned us for electoral reasons.
Osborne has been cautious and rightly so. From today's telegraph:
"Mr Osborne will say that major risks to the recovery remain, warning that voters face more years of public spending restraints. He will also admit that ministers must do more to help household budgets.
But his broadly positive tone reflects a growing belief among senior Government figures that the economic mood of the nation has taken a decisive turn for the better, offering a potential political boost for the Coalition and the Conservatives in particular."
Hard to argue with that.