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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected
New Times YouGov Scotland poll suggests SNP could be DOWN 8 to 27 Westminster seats at next GE. At GE2015 Sturgeon's party won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/PDC394lsdl
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Does she really want to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead?
That said it'll annoy some Nats if she doesn't.
Loved the SNP Paper on 'the disaster awaiting Scotland if we leave the EU Single Market' - curiously silent on the four times more important 'disaster awaiting Scotland if we leave the UK Single Market'....
The Holyrood system is largely proportional with a modest winners bonus for those that do particularly well in the constituencies. Making any kind of a government out of those figures would be tricky. Would Labour go into coalition with the Nats?
Doing Well - net - (vs Oct17)
Davidson: +15 (-2)
Sturgeon: 0 (-)
Corbyn: -3 (-23)
Leonard: -15 (SLAB, for those who may have blinked - or the 60% 'Don't Know')
May: -47 (-2)
The situation is probably worse for the SNP.
Just on a second Scottish referendum: read a story the other day Sturgeon was going to wait until the deal to leave the EU was clearer before deciding whether to push for another one.
It's crackers to use leaving the EU, with whom Scotland does far less trade [ex-UK} than the UK, as a supposed justification for leaving the UK.
Also, it is snowing and cold. The dog was delighted.
I'm not disputing your main point, just saying that it is possible. If Sturgeon lasts a while she might have a successor ready.
https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/953540486949736449
Corbyn will be encouraged he will pick up some more SNP MPs but given the SNP would back him over the Tories anyway that is less significant
Businesses can and do fail, and the taxpayer can't just bail out every failed business. There is, however, a question of how much of state provision should be provided by a single firm.
So far, the Government's handled this fairly well. I suspect they'll get it in the neck whatever they decide when it comes to throwing money, or not, at SMEs who are owed it by Carillion.
http://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/Health-Care-News/controversial-leicester-nhs-contract-scrapped-four-years-early
Not sorry to see them go at all in Leicester.
Makes it less unilateral.
I can’t see Mrs May approving a section 30 referendum.
I won't comment on matters Scottish as the usual suspects are repeating their usual tired old boring lines and no one needs to throw petrol on that perfectly good fire.
As to outsourcing firms in the wake of the Carillion collapse, I had some dealings with this way back in the days of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT) where local authorities at one time had to take the lowest price offered for the package of work being tendered.
This was insanity on so many levels - the incoming Contractor would be full of promises until they realised the truth of what they had taken on. The move since 2010 has been in-sourcing of many activities. I heard stories of Councils being charged £150 to change a light bulb in a care home or to fix a toilet seat at a day centre. Local authorities don't of course have to operate to a profit margin or satisfy shareholders so the economic argument for outsourcing day to day work fell apart.
Yes of course you have to involve the private sector on big projects but day-to-day work and especially in softer services such as IT and finance, I don't see the point. I know of Councils who have basically outsourced everything to Northgate or Capita or Atos or whoever and now have to pay the contractor to view their own information as the report needed isn't part of the standard suite of information provided.
With the coming of Cloud-based systems Councils have been able to take back control and most now insist on the Contractor accessing the Council's data through a Portal or similar.
The truth is outsourcing does work in some areas some of the time - it's not a panacea and in truth Councils were outmanoeuvred comprehensively in the early days and locked into appalling contracts whish ended up costing much more than had the services continue to be provided in-house.
I was speaking to an elections expert and he said it would require every council in Scotland to be SNP controlled, otherwise non SNP controlled councils would just ignore Holyrood/Sturgeon.
They’d say they’d be breaking the law in partaking in a non legal referendum.
Does anyone ?
But running multiple public service contracts efficiently requires a level of management skills and commitment that I think these large companies find really difficult to replicate. They pay a long way from top dollar, they treat their staff poorly, they have high turnover of staff as a result and they deliver poor performance.
I personally believe that public sector bodies should have a preference for obtaining local services from local companies that are focussed on that particular service so the management has simple and direct tasks to monitor. You will still have failures and there may need to be closer supervision and monitoring of the service (something urgently needed anyway) but I think that there would be better provision of services and less systemic problems than we have at the moment.
How does that not result in Fife NE (majority 2) becoming a LibDem seat?
It is to be hoped they take urgent and immediate action to stop directors abuse of their companies with punitive prison sentences for riping off the shareholders and employees and enact legislation that all companies have to settle their accounts within 30 days unconditionally and if they intend disputing the invoice it still has to be paid, pending any review of the charges.
Furthermore maintaining sub contractors viability in this immediate crisis within reason needs to be considered together with a root and branch review of services that should be in the public sector and those rightly continue in the private sector.
The problem for labour to sustain the charge that these were profit driven private businesses is they have failed largely by under cutting tenders and the shareholders have worthless shares
The problem for the Conservatives in those numbers (which do seem a little contradictory) is their net loss of two seats and Labour's net gain of ten. Yesterday's ICM numbers Baxtered (oh come on) put the CON and LAB numbers about equal. I think you could argue that but basically there's no CON-DUP majority any more.
So you have the SNP on 25-30 seats and the LDs on 15 seats as the two unknown quantities and assuming the 7 or 8 SF MPs still don't turn up that means (according to my crude sums) 321/322 for a majority. LAB (and others) plus SNP probably just crawl over the line. CON+DUP+LDs probably just get over the line as well.
Plenty to play for and anyone confident in predicting the next GE shouldn't be.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/953550767566344192
I can't see Orkney & Shetland being lost. And CS&ER and East Dumbartonshire are straight LD-SNP battles, with the Conservatives some way back in third.
You're confusing us losing to the Normans as opposed to us thrashing the French. That said, we do tend to over-dwell on our victories. I doubt many people have ever heard of the battle of Castillon.
It's the sort of thing Corbyn and McDonnell could support.
Are you saying that directors should be exempt from criminal charges for riping off their Companies and what is wrong with 30 day compulsive payment of invoices
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/trapped-scottish-drivers-forced-to-deep-fry-each-other-201012073324
Didn't take long. Our very own Mr Independence RCS moves to California and within a few months he has persuaded most of the state to try to secede from the central government.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/01/16/new-california-declares-independence-california-bid-become-51st-state/1036681001/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7273668.stm