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18/ Our biggest challenge is to maintain Labour as an alliance of social democrats, left-liberals, old-style Bennite socialists and radical leftists – and to turn it into a, or more accurately towards the, social movements..

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DavidL

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

AndyJS

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

SouthamObserver

https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/953383555333263362

DavidL

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

MikeSmithson

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Was it as good as David Herdson's the night before on PB?

AndyJS

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

DavidL

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

rkrkrk

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

I think it’s encouraging that there was a) diversity of viewpoints and backgrounds making that show b) he chose to leave in respect of impartiality requirements.

DavidL

For the record I do not believe it is any more true that Labour need a 10% lead for a majority than it was for the Tories when the same was said about them. I seem to recall Blair getting a very comfortable majority with a lead of about 3%.

Whether they should be ahead by 10% or more during the Parliament is of course a different question. We are still pretty close to the election and a long way from "mid term". At the moment they are probably a little disappointed (given the somewhat shambolic impression of the government in general and May in particular) not to be further ahead but it is relatively early days.

Big_G_NorthWales

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Was it as good as David Herdson's the night before on PB?

No - that was the best comment piece I have ever seen on PB

Sunil_Prasannan

"Comrades, this is your Leader. It is an honour to speak to you today, and I am honoured to be sailing with you on the maiden voyage of our Party's most recent achievement. Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary — The Conservative Party. For a hundred years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage. It reminds me of the heady days of 1945 and Clement Attlee, when the world trembled at the sound of our Nationalisations! Well, they will tremble again — at the sound of our Glorious 2018 National Executive Committee Election Victory. The order is: engage the Corbyn Drive!

"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!

"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"

MikeSmithson

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

DavidL

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

AndyJS

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Was it as good as David Herdson's the night before on PB?

I can remember him saying that things weren't going as well as hoped for the Tories in Wakefield but I can't remember his national prediction.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/

MikeL

Even on UNS Lab does not need a lead of 10% for a majority.

Inputting 36/44/10/2/2 (ie Lab lead of 8%) into Baxter gives a Lab majority of 8.

Which would be an effective majority of 15 if SF don't take their seats.

And that's before allowing for any extra gains in Scotland which would be highly likely.

So taking account of the above (and possibly a slightly better swing in some marginals) it looks as if in practice Lab would need a lead of about 6% to get a majority.

JohnO

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Was it as good as David Herdson's the night before on PB?

No - that was the best comment piece I have ever seen on PB

I agree and was absolutely stunned by it after an evening canvassing. Perhaps David or Mike could repost it as a salutary reminder of hubris and nemesis.

Foxy

Just back from a little bit of football history, Britain's first ever goal given by VAR.

VAR was used 3 times in the match, as far as I in the crowd could see. The referee put his hand to his ear, so the crowd knew what was going on. We rather enjoyed woohing it, and it didn't disrupt play. More importantly, it gave the correct answer. Not sure how this will affect in match betting.

It is only to be used for four situations: goals, penalties, red cards and mistaken identity. I think it will work fine.

Good to see 'nacho get his first Leicester goals. He has had a poor start at Leicester, and had a nervy first 30 min, but had a much better game after his first goal relaxed him.

DavidL

AndyJS said:

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Was it as good as David Herdson's the night before on PB?

I can remember him saying that things weren't going as well as hoped for the Tories in Wakefield but I can't remember his national prediction.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/

My recollection was that it was somewhat more visceral than that. He said it was shit, all shit. That he had been wasting his time canvassing areas where he did not have a prayer and that the campaign had no idea what it was doing. That things were going to go much worse than anyone was predicting. But I don't recall a specific projection.

AndyJS

This is what DH wrote on election day itself:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/

"Hello all. Latest feedback after an afternoon's knocking up here in Wakefield.

The Tory vote is more solid than it appeared to me last night. Sorry again for the major wobble - stress, anger at the ineptitude of some of those running the campaign (and at the selfishness of one particular voter), exhaustion and what I think now must just have been a particularly misleading set of responses just pushed me into seriously doubting whether the Blue wall was holding. (but WHY did it have to happen to me on election eve?!?)

I now think that it pretty much is. There is still anger out there at some of the policies and a lack of enthusiasm for May but a mixture of pragmatism and fear of Corbyn should see the Tories home, if not by a huge margin.

Apologies again for being all over the place these last 24 hours.

(And again, only popping in here briefly as other stuff to do but after causing a few jitters last night, I felt I owed it to people here to report on what I'd found today.) "

rkrkrk

JohnO said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Was it as good as David Herdson's the night before on PB?

No - that was the best comment piece I have ever seen on PB

I agree and was absolutely stunned by it after an evening canvassing. Perhaps David or Mike could repost it as a salutary reminder of hubris and nemesis.

If I remember correctly there were conspiracy theories that his account had been hacked!

Philip_Thompson

I doubt this is any more right than the projections of what was needed for the Tories to get a majority in 2015 (based on vote share and UNS from memory the Tories should not have got a majority).

Realistically if Labour were say 9% in the lead they'd have a very realistic chance of getting a 2015 Cameron style majority or better.

DavidL

Philip_Thompson said:

I doubt this is any more right than the projections of what was needed for the Tories to get a majority in 2015 (based on vote share and UNS from memory the Tories should not have got a majority).

Realistically if Labour were say 9% in the lead they'd have a very realistic chance of getting a 2015 Cameron style majority or better.

Given that UKIP are dead for all practical purposes and the Lib Dems are on life support I suspect that the gap between the big 2 required to get an overall majority is smaller than it has been for a long time. There's a lot of seats now that will move directly from one to the other on very small swings.

Richard_Nabavi

Leaving aside what Paul Mason says in tweet number 17, he's on the button in tweet number 18, which can be more accurately expressed as "Our biggest challenge is how to continue conning different groups with mutually-exclusive promises."

He's right. The result of the next election will depend hugely on whether they can get away with it again as they did in 2017.

DecrepitJohnL

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

The Survation and Yougov predictions may have been outliers but their models fitted in with some academic research that was pointed to by someone (sorry -- forgotten who) on pb. The gist was that pollsters were over-discounting those who'd not voted before.

Richard_Nabavi

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I doubt this is any more right than the projections of what was needed for the Tories to get a majority in 2015 (based on vote share and UNS from memory the Tories should not have got a majority).

Realistically if Labour were say 9% in the lead they'd have a very realistic chance of getting a 2015 Cameron style majority or better.

Given that UKIP are dead for all practical purposes and the Lib Dems are on life support I suspect that the gap between the big 2 required to get an overall majority is smaller than it has been for a long time. There's a lot of seats now that will move directly from one to the other on very small swings.

Plus the SNP falling back.

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I doubt this is any more right than the projections of what was needed for the Tories to get a majority in 2015 (based on vote share and UNS from memory the Tories should not have got a majority).

Realistically if Labour were say 9% in the lead they'd have a very realistic chance of getting a 2015 Cameron style majority or better.

Given that UKIP are dead for all practical purposes and the Lib Dems are on life support I suspect that the gap between the big 2 required to get an overall majority is smaller than it has been for a long time. There's a lot of seats now that will move directly from one to the other on very small swings.

Plus the SNP falling back.

Yes, although that is more likely to help Labour next time than the Conservatives. I really struggle to see more than another 3 or 4 seats for the Tories in Scotland, even on a very good night.

Philip_Thompson

AndyJS said:

MikeSmithson said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Was it as good as David Herdson's the night before on PB?

I can remember him saying that things weren't going as well as hoped for the Tories in Wakefield but I can't remember his national prediction.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/

Can't figure out how to link to the exact post: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/07/new-pbpolling-matters-podcast-election-eve-special/

david_herdson said:
Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.

Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.

rkrkrk

AndyJS said:

This is what DH wrote on election day itself:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/08/remember-how-at-euref-newcastle-and-sunderland-gave-us-the-first-pointers-as-to-what-was-to-come/

"Hello all. Latest feedback after an afternoon's knocking up here in Wakefield.

The Tory vote is more solid than it appeared to me last night. Sorry again for the major wobble - stress, anger at the ineptitude of some of those running the campaign (and at the selfishness of one particular voter), exhaustion and what I think now must just have been a particularly misleading set of responses just pushed me into seriously doubting whether the Blue wall was holding. (but WHY did it have to happen to me on election eve?!?)

I now think that it pretty much is. There is still anger out there at some of the policies and a lack of enthusiasm for May but a mixture of pragmatism and fear of Corbyn should see the Tories home, if not by a huge margin.

Apologies again for being all over the place these last 24 hours.

(And again, only popping in here briefly as other stuff to do but after causing a few jitters last night, I felt I owed it to people here to report on what I'd found today.) "

Yes - the earlier prediction he semi refers to was more prescient as it turned out.

stevef

So Mason admits that Corbyn is not just a break with Blairism, but a break with all previous Labour governments and leaders, including Attlee. He says "for the first time" thus categorising the Attlee government 1945-51 as not representing the workers. Interesting and revealing.

Mason like Corbyn is a Marxist. Any government that is not Marxist doesnt represent the working class in his book. If he were alive in 1917 he would be wetting himself with zeal at the coup by Lenin and his fanatics and eulogising them as the first government in history to represent the working class. (Lenin and Stalin certainly offered the workers the equality of the graveyard).

The problem is that the rise in the Labour vote in 2017 is explained not by more workers supporting Labour but by more AB middle class and by middle class students, future lawyers and bankers.

No opposition has ever come to power without being 15 points ahead in the polls between elections. The irritating Mr Mason should understand that is a big thing if you are not used to it.....

Alistair

I don't know about your country but in my country not only can you get a real time feed of gritters positions but many of them are named

My favourite is "Sir Salter Scott" although "Grittie McVittie" is also good.

http://scotgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=2de764a9303848ffb9a4cac0bd0b1aab

Philip_Thompson

stevef said:

No opposition has ever come to power without being 15 points ahead in the polls between elections. The irritating Mr Mason should understand that is a big thing if you are not used to it.....

Old favourite is relevant to this:
https://xkcd.com/1122/

stevef

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

stevef

Philip_Thompson said:

stevef said:

No opposition has ever come to power without being 15 points ahead in the polls between elections. The irritating Mr Mason should understand that is a big thing if you are not used to it.....

Old favourite is relevant to this:
https://xkcd.com/1122/

Dream on

Philip_Thompson

Alistair said:

I don't know about your country but in my country not only can you get a real time feed of gritters positions but many of them are named

My favourite is "Sir Salter Scott" although "Grittie McVittie" is also good.

http://scotgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=2de764a9303848ffb9a4cac0bd0b1aab

Its a mouthful but nothing can beat "Gritsy Bitsy Teeny Weeny Yellow Anti-Slip Machiney"

https://news.sky.com/story/gritsy-bitsy-and-david-plowie-show-true-grit-to-triumph-in-naming-contest-11131273

HYUFD

Well Paul Mason rather puts Attlee in his place then doesn't he in comparison to the Messiah Corbyn

AndyJS

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

stevef

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Labour needs to win more than 60 seats to get a majority of just 1. They might win 1 in Southampton and then lose Sheffield Hallam with its disastrous MP. The Tories might win back some seats where labour only has a tiny majority. Labour needs a surge in seats like Nuneaton. And its not happening.

Theuniondivvie

A touch of the Jareds, or is it Tobies?

'MP apologises for saying unemployed should be sterilised'

https://tinyurl.com/yctv266h

Foxy

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Corbyn has brought a number of Southern seats back into play.

While the minor parties are so attenuated, it is hard for Labour to reach a 10% lead, as that would mean something like 50% share.

Corbyn does seem to have plateaued a nudge above GE, but there is no sign of the bubble bursting, and it is more than 10% up in a year. Any parrty would be happy with that sort of progress, but haters gonna hate.

stevef

For years Corbynistas have smugly told us that Corbynism is a break with Blairism and its only the Blairites who resist the bearded Messiah.

Now at last we have a Corbynista admission: Corbyn is a break with ALL previous Labour leaders including Attlee (who would be appalled).

Corbyn is a break with Attleeeism, Wilsonism, Smithism not just Blairism. Indeed he is a break with all previous measured moderate and reasonable Labourism.

stevef

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Corbyn has brought a number of Southern seats back into play.

While the minor parties are so attenuated, it is hard for Labour to reach a 10% lead, as that would mean something like 50% share.

Corbyn does seem to have plateaued a nudge above GE, but there is no sign of the bubble bursting, and it is more than 10% up in a year. Any parrty would be happy with that sort of progress, but haters gonna hate.

But its only 10% up if you include the rise in the percentage in seats Labour already holds. Corbyn only won a similar number of seats to Gordon Brown in 2010 who won one of the lowest ever percentages of the vote.

AndyJS

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Corbyn has brought a number of Southern seats back into play.

While the minor parties are so attenuated, it is hard for Labour to reach a 10% lead, as that would mean something like 50% share.

Corbyn does seem to have plateaued a nudge above GE, but there is no sign of the bubble bursting, and it is more than 10% up in a year. Any parrty would be happy with that sort of progress, but haters gonna hate.

Give it time. After today's abuse by Paul Mason of a BBC female presenter, momentum' takeover of the NEC, Ann Black's purge by the hard left, and shadow ministers tonight questioning Corbyn's fitness to lead into the next GE the doubts are beginning to surface

Alistair

Theuniondivvie said:

A touch of the Jareds, or is it Tobies?

'MP apologises for saying unemployed should be sterilised'

https://tinyurl.com/yctv266h

If it's a right winger then it's clearly raising a difficult topic with their trade mark wit and candour.

If it's a left winger then hanging is too good for them.

Big_G_NorthWales

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

I think you will find that was in 2012 and he has apologised. Not that it should have been said though

Foxy

stevef said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Corbyn has brought a number of Southern seats back into play.

While the minor parties are so attenuated, it is hard for Labour to reach a 10% lead, as that would mean something like 50% share.

Corbyn does seem to have plateaued a nudge above GE, but there is no sign of the bubble bursting, and it is more than 10% up in a year. Any parrty would be happy with that sort of progress, but haters gonna hate.

But its only 10% up if you include the rise in the percentage in seats Labour already holds. Corbyn only won a similar number of seats to Gordon Brown in 2010 who won one of the lowest ever percentages of the vote.

10% up on the polls last January was my meaning.

There really were very few predicting that a year ago, inded predictions of Labour under 20% were tipped here.

Moderate Labourites (though I have never seen @stevef ever post anything positive about Labour) need to smell the coffee. Jezza has given the party that seemed more impotent than a drunk in a viagra shortage its mojo back. They need to harness that enthusiasm rather than rubbish it, and to temper it with some sustainable plans.

Philip_Thompson

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

That's not true.

Tories youngest MP once, years ago before becoming an MP, alluded to vasectomies when aged 22 would be more accurate.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

"It’s horrendous that there are families out there that can make vastly more than the average wage, (or in some cases more than a bloody good wage) just because they have 10 kids.

"Sorry but how many children you have is a choice; if you can’t afford them, stop having them!

"Vasectomies are free."

Personally I fail to see what's wrong there. They are free. I love my kids and I provide for them, I wouldn't be able to provide for 10 so I have no intention of having 10.

HYUFD

stevef said:

For years Corbynistas have smugly told us that Corbynism is a break with Blairism and its only the Blairites who resist the bearded Messiah.

Now at last we have a Corbynista admission: Corbyn is a break with ALL previous Labour leaders including Attlee (who would be appalled).

Corbyn is a break with Attleeeism, Wilsonism, Smithism not just Blairism. Indeed he is a break with all previous measured moderate and reasonable Labourism.

I would say Corbyn has a lot in common with Foot ideologically though and unlike Foot has not yet had his vote split as he faces a weak LDs unlike the strong SDP/Liberal Alliance Foot faced

kle4

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/953383555333263362

He is quite bonkers, isn't he? I know most previous Labour governments, like all governments of any party, may not have quite lived up to the hopes and dreams of all its supporters, but what would even have been the point of backing such governments for 100 years if they failed in even the most basic aspects of what the party is about?

rkrkrk

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A touch of the Jareds, or is it Tobies?

'MP apologises for saying unemployed should be sterilised'

https://tinyurl.com/yctv266h

If it's a right winger then it's clearly raising a difficult topic with their trade mark wit and candour.

If it's a left winger then hanging is too good for them.

Haha well put.

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/953383555333263362

He is quite bonkers, isn't he?

The scary thing is he is not the only one by a mountain mile and was the BBC economics spokesman at one time

Theuniondivvie

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

I think you will find that was in 2012 and he has apologised. Not that it should have been said though

I'm getting a bit confused on the statute of limitations for being a dick. It seemed to be around 25 years for Toby then suddenly it got much shorter once it was discovered his dickishness was kind of a recurring theme.

kle4

Foxy said:

stevef said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Corbyn has brought a number of Southern seats back into play.

While the minor parties are so attenuated, it is hard for Labour to reach a 10% lead, as that would mean something like 50% share.

Corbyn does seem to have plateaued a nudge above GE, but there is no sign of the bubble bursting, and it is more than 10% up in a year. Any parrty would be happy with that sort of progress, but haters gonna hate.

But its only 10% up if you include the rise in the percentage in seats Labour already holds. Corbyn only won a similar number of seats to Gordon Brown in 2010 who won one of the lowest ever percentages of the vote.

10% up on the polls last January was my meaning.

There really were very few predicting that a year ago, inded predictions of Labour under 20% were tipped here.

Moderate Labourites (though I have never seen @stevef ever post anything positive about Labour) need to smell the coffee. Jezza has given the party that seemed more impotent than a drunk in a viagra shortage its mojo back. They need to harness that enthusiasm rather than rubbish it, and to temper it with some sustainable plans.

What if that enthusiasm does not want tempering or sustainability? Is not a lot of enthusiasm, left and right, predicated on a desire for simple, emotional solutions without moderation?

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

For years Corbynistas have smugly told us that Corbynism is a break with Blairism and its only the Blairites who resist the bearded Messiah.

Now at last we have a Corbynista admission: Corbyn is a break with ALL previous Labour leaders including Attlee (who would be appalled).

Corbyn is a break with Attleeeism, Wilsonism, Smithism not just Blairism. Indeed he is a break with all previous measured moderate and reasonable Labourism.

I would say Corbyn has a lot in common with Foot ideologically though and unlike Foot has not yet had his vote split as he faces a weak LDs unlike the strong SDP/Liberal Alliance Foot faced

I think the big word in that sentence is 'yet' - it must be coming

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

For years Corbynistas have smugly told us that Corbynism is a break with Blairism and its only the Blairites who resist the bearded Messiah.

Now at last we have a Corbynista admission: Corbyn is a break with ALL previous Labour leaders including Attlee (who would be appalled).

Corbyn is a break with Attleeeism, Wilsonism, Smithism not just Blairism. Indeed he is a break with all previous measured moderate and reasonable Labourism.

I would say Corbyn has a lot in common with Foot ideologically though and unlike Foot has not yet had his vote split as he faces a weak LDs unlike the strong SDP/Liberal Alliance Foot faced

I think the big word in that sentence is 'yet' - it must be coming

Why? I mean, in the sense that all things turn eventually, sure, but I see little reason they cannot hold together long enough for the next GE.

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

I think you will find that was in 2012 and he has apologised. Not that it should have been said though

I'm getting a bit confused on the statute of limitations for being a dick. It seemed to be around 25 years for Toby then suddenly it got much shorter once it was discovered his dickishness was kind of a recurring theme.

Well it's as Jared O'Mara has said - I suppose it depends on the journey someone has taken. If that journey still involves being a dick, that seems relevant vs one which does not involve being a dick. But being a dick is rarely something that happens just once of course.

Y0kel

Philip_Thompson said:

Alistair said:

I don't know about your country but in my country not only can you get a real time feed of gritters positions but many of them are named

My favourite is "Sir Salter Scott" although "Grittie McVittie" is also good.

http://scotgov.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=2de764a9303848ffb9a4cac0bd0b1aab

Its a mouthful but nothing can beat "Gritsy Bitsy Teeny Weeny Yellow Anti-Slip Machiney"

https://news.sky.com/story/gritsy-bitsy-and-david-plowie-show-true-grit-to-triumph-in-naming-contest-11131273

Despite the bourgeois elite trying to bash it into us that we are somehow just like the Continentals, THIS is the kind of thing that truly marks this great nation out as different from those bozos across the English Channel and the North Sea................

Philip_Thompson

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

For years Corbynistas have smugly told us that Corbynism is a break with Blairism and its only the Blairites who resist the bearded Messiah.

Now at last we have a Corbynista admission: Corbyn is a break with ALL previous Labour leaders including Attlee (who would be appalled).

Corbyn is a break with Attleeeism, Wilsonism, Smithism not just Blairism. Indeed he is a break with all previous measured moderate and reasonable Labourism.

I would say Corbyn has a lot in common with Foot ideologically though and unlike Foot has not yet had his vote split as he faces a weak LDs unlike the strong SDP/Liberal Alliance Foot faced

I think the big word in that sentence is 'yet' - it must be coming

Why? I mean, in the sense that all things turn eventually, sure, but I see little reason they cannot hold together long enough for the next GE.

I agree. But if Corbyn (or a Corbynite successor) loses the next General Election significantly ... and if the far left keep hold of the Labour Party ... then at that point I could see a split happening.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

For years Corbynistas have smugly told us that Corbynism is a break with Blairism and its only the Blairites who resist the bearded Messiah.

Now at last we have a Corbynista admission: Corbyn is a break with ALL previous Labour leaders including Attlee (who would be appalled).

Corbyn is a break with Attleeeism, Wilsonism, Smithism not just Blairism. Indeed he is a break with all previous measured moderate and reasonable Labourism.

I would say Corbyn has a lot in common with Foot ideologically though and unlike Foot has not yet had his vote split as he faces a weak LDs unlike the strong SDP/Liberal Alliance Foot faced

I think the big word in that sentence is 'yet' - it must be coming

If there are deselections maybe. In 1983 the Tories got 42.40%, almost exactly the same as the 42.34% they got in 2017, the combined Labour and LD/Alliance vote was 53% in 1983, actually bigger than the combined Labour and LD vote of 47% in 2017, it was just that in 2017 Labour took most of it and the FPTP benefits whereas it was evenly split between Labour and the LDs in 1983 helping produce the Thatcher landslide.

Big_G_NorthWales

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

I think you will find that was in 2012 and he has apologised. Not that it should have been said though

I'm getting a bit confused on the statute of limitations for being a dick. It seemed to be around 25 years for Toby then suddenly it got much shorter once it was discovered his dickishness was kind of a recurring theme.

I think you will find it in many young people irrespective of their politics. Have you not said anything in your life you now regret

kle4

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

For years Corbynistas have smugly told us that Corbynism is a break with Blairism and its only the Blairites who resist the bearded Messiah.

Now at last we have a Corbynista admission: Corbyn is a break with ALL previous Labour leaders including Attlee (who would be appalled).

Corbyn is a break with Attleeeism, Wilsonism, Smithism not just Blairism. Indeed he is a break with all previous measured moderate and reasonable Labourism.

I would say Corbyn has a lot in common with Foot ideologically though and unlike Foot has not yet had his vote split as he faces a weak LDs unlike the strong SDP/Liberal Alliance Foot faced

I think the big word in that sentence is 'yet' - it must be coming

Why? I mean, in the sense that all things turn eventually, sure, but I see little reason they cannot hold together long enough for the next GE.

I agree. But if Corbyn (or a Corbynite successor) loses the next General Election significantly ... and if the far left keep hold of the Labour Party ... then at that point I could see a split happening.

Well sure, but that was a scenario many predicted as a possibility for 2017 - now most of us got a lot about it very wrong, so predictive powers are not a strong suit, but what odds a country probably sick of 13 years of Tory rule, tired and weak leadership, and probably an at best medium Brexit settlement to have come out from, is going to see Labour so reduced?

Foxy

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

stevef said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Corbyn has brought a number of Southern seats back into play.

While the minor parties are so attenuated, it is hard for Labour to reach a 10% lead, as that would mean something like 50% share.

Corbyn does seem to have plateaued a nudge above GE, but there is no sign of the bubble bursting, and it is more than 10% up in a year. Any parrty would be happy with that sort of progress, but haters gonna hate.

But its only 10% up if you include the rise in the percentage in seats Labour already holds. Corbyn only won a similar number of seats to Gordon Brown in 2010 who won one of the lowest ever percentages of the vote.

10% up on the polls last January was my meaning.

There really were very few predicting that a year ago, inded predictions of Labour under 20% were tipped here.

Moderate Labourites (though I have never seen @stevef ever post anything positive about Labour) need to smell the coffee. Jezza has given the party that seemed more impotent than a drunk in a viagra shortage its mojo back. They need to harness that enthusiasm rather than rubbish it, and to temper it with some sustainable plans.

What if that enthusiasm does not want tempering or sustainability? Is not a lot of enthusiasm, left and right, predicated on a desire for simple, emotional solutions without moderation?

Well, that is a fair description of populism, but it does tend to become more pragmatic as power gets within reach.

Philip_Thompson

I'm confused by the idea that pointing out that vasectomies are free in the context of having 10 kids being a choice is somehow "eugenics" or saying to "sterilise" people. It would only be that if you were somehow making it compulsory rather than a free option for people that we already offer on the NHS!

If we switch the word vasectomy and simply said that "birth control is free" (which it is to all women, again on the NHS) then would that be eugenics?

Theuniondivvie

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

That's not true.

Tories youngest MP once, years ago before becoming an MP, alluded to vasectomies when aged 22 would be more accurate.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

"It’s horrendous that there are families out there that can make vastly more than the average wage, (or in some cases more than a bloody good wage) just because they have 10 kids.

"Sorry but how many children you have is a choice; if you can’t afford them, stop having them!

"Vasectomies are free."

Personally I fail to see what's wrong there. They are free. I love my kids and I provide for them, I wouldn't be able to provide for 10 so I have no intention of having 10.

Silly him for deleting his blog and apologising then.

Philip_Thompson

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

That's not true.

Tories youngest MP once, years ago before becoming an MP, alluded to vasectomies when aged 22 would be more accurate.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

"It’s horrendous that there are families out there that can make vastly more than the average wage, (or in some cases more than a bloody good wage) just because they have 10 kids.

"Sorry but how many children you have is a choice; if you can’t afford them, stop having them!

"Vasectomies are free."

Personally I fail to see what's wrong there. They are free. I love my kids and I provide for them, I wouldn't be able to provide for 10 so I have no intention of having 10.

Silly him for deleting his blog and apologising then.

Not really he's a politician and I'm not. He may also genuinely regret it though I don't see what's wrong personally.

I'm 35, have two kids and both my kids were planned. When we didn't want kids we used birth control. I don't see how that's eugenics or an alien concept.

kle4

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

stevef said:

Foxy said:

AndyJS said:

stevef said:

And Labour needs not just a 10% lead but that 10% needs to be distributed differently to 2017. No point in piling up the percentage points in seats already held. (as in 2017). Corbyn will need to win percentage point leads in the Tory marginals of Middle England. No sign of that at all.

It could be the Tories piling up votes in safe seats and Labour getting the swing they need in seats like Southampton Itchen where the Conservatives have a majority of 31.

Corbyn has brought a number of Southern seats back into play.

While the minor parties are so attenuated, it is hard for Labour to reach a 10% lead, as that would mean something like 50% share.

Corbyn does seem to have plateaued a nudge above GE, but there is no sign of the bubble bursting, and it is more than 10% up in a year. Any parrty would be happy with that sort of progress, but haters gonna hate.

But its only 10% up if you include the rise in the percentage in seats Labour already holds. Corbyn only won a similar number of seats to Gordon Brown in 2010 who won one of the lowest ever percentages of the vote.

10% up on the polls last January was my meaning.

There really were very few predicting that a year ago, inded predictions of Labour under 20% were tipped here.

Moderate Labourites (though I have never seen @stevef ever post anything positive about Labour) need to smell the coffee. Jezza has given the party that seemed more impotent than a drunk in a viagra shortage its mojo back. They need to harness that enthusiasm rather than rubbish it, and to temper it with some sustainable plans.

What if that enthusiasm does not want tempering or sustainability? Is not a lot of enthusiasm, left and right, predicated on a desire for simple, emotional solutions without moderation?

Well, that is a fair description of populism, but it does tend to become more pragmatic as power gets within reach.

Sure, but then you are not tempering the enthusiasm, you are just riding it to power, then becoming more pragmatic (and/or crap) until its all gone and the other lot get in.

Theuniondivvie

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

I think you will find that was in 2012 and he has apologised. Not that it should have been said though

I'm getting a bit confused on the statute of limitations for being a dick. It seemed to be around 25 years for Toby then suddenly it got much shorter once it was discovered his dickishness was kind of a recurring theme.

I think you will find it in many young people irrespective of their politics. Have you not said anything in your life you now regret

I'm not an mp though, or indeed the Conservative ‘Vice Chair of Youth’.
Of course it may be a cunning 'see fam, I's a dumbass just likes you' strategy.

rcs1000

https://politics.theonion.com/new-report-finds-adult-film-star-may-have-paid-over-13-1822124133?utm_content=Main&utm_campaign=SF&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=SocialMarketing

rcs1000

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous.
LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance.

This YouGov model is a joke.

MikeSmithson

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous.
LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance.

This YouGov model is a joke.

Eastbourne was also extraordinary because it voted by LEAVE 58% - 42%

David_Evershed

rcs1000 said:

https://politics.theonion.com/new-report-finds-adult-film-star-may-have-paid-over-13-1822124133?utm_content=Main&utm_campaign=SF&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=SocialMarketing

Robert

Are you endorsing The Onion as a reputable source of news?

Or emphasising the use of fake news.

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

That's not true.

Tories youngest MP once, years ago before becoming an MP, alluded to vasectomies when aged 22 would be more accurate.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

"It’s horrendous that there are families out there that can make vastly more than the average wage, (or in some cases more than a bloody good wage) just because they have 10 kids.

"Sorry but how many children you have is a choice; if you can’t afford them, stop having them!

"Vasectomies are free."

Personally I fail to see what's wrong there. They are free. I love my kids and I provide for them, I wouldn't be able to provide for 10 so I have no intention of having 10.

Silly him for deleting his blog and apologising then.

Not really he's a politician and I'm not. He may also genuinely regret it though I don't see what's wrong personally.

I'm 35, have two kids and both my kids were planned. When we didn't want kids we used birth control. I don't see how that's eugenics or an alien concept.

Your wife has two kids. You cannot be sure exactly how many kids you have, but the median number is two.

rcs1000

MikeSmithson said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous.
LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance.

This YouGov model is a joke.

Eastbourne was also extraordinary because it voted by LEAVE 58% - 42%

The LibDems were fortunate indeed that Plato was out canvassing.

David_Evershed

"Trump's cognitive ability is normal, says White House doctor"

"On Friday, the president was examined by military doctors at the Walter Reed Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, in tests that were said to have gone "exceptionally well".

Among them was Dr Jackson, whose official title is Physician to the President.

A rear admiral in the US Navy, he also tended to Mr Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama.

To check for possible cognitive dysfunction, the US Department of Veterans Affairs uses the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) neuropsychological test."


BBC News at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42708826

Do we trust it or is that fake news?

AndyJS

London's very quiet at the moment. I was at Euston station last night at about 10pm and it looked like there weren't more than about 50 people on the main concourse waiting for trains.

David_Evershed

MikeSmithson said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous.
LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance.

This YouGov model is a joke.

Eastbourne was also extraordinary because it voted by LEAVE 58% - 42%

And also extraordinary because the winning here Lib Dem candidate was Stephen Lloyd. He was born in Kenya - like Obama?

Pong

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-5276683/Energy-supplier-broke-changed-couples-locks.html

We've reached the endgame of economic liberalization, haven't we?

ooooh Jeremy Corbynnn

AndyJS

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous.
LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance.

This YouGov model is a joke.

In retrospect the Tories should have dumped Brazier as candidate as it became obvious the university/academic element in the constituency was becoming more important. He wasn't a good fit for the seat after about 2010.

Philip_Thompson

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories' youngest MP in England recommends vasectomies for the jobless:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

That's not true.

Tories youngest MP once, years ago before becoming an MP, alluded to vasectomies when aged 22 would be more accurate.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-promoted-theresa-role-11862840

"It’s horrendous that there are families out there that can make vastly more than the average wage, (or in some cases more than a bloody good wage) just because they have 10 kids.

"Sorry but how many children you have is a choice; if you can’t afford them, stop having them!

"Vasectomies are free."

Personally I fail to see what's wrong there. They are free. I love my kids and I provide for them, I wouldn't be able to provide for 10 so I have no intention of having 10.

Silly him for deleting his blog and apologising then.

Not really he's a politician and I'm not. He may also genuinely regret it though I don't see what's wrong personally.

I'm 35, have two kids and both my kids were planned. When we didn't want kids we used birth control. I don't see how that's eugenics or an alien concept.

Your wife has two kids. You cannot be sure exactly how many kids you have, but the median number is two.

LOL

David_Evershed

AndyJS said:

London's very quiet at the moment. I was at Euston station last night at about 10pm and it looked like there weren't more than about 50 people on the main concourse waiting for trains.

Waiting for trains - or begging?

Pong

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/16/exclusive-boris-johnson-warns-theresa-may-must-commit-52bn-brexit/

Inside the tent, pissing in.

Philip_Thompson

Pong said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/16/exclusive-boris-johnson-warns-theresa-may-must-commit-52bn-brexit/

Inside the tent, pissing in.

If May had any political nous whatsoever she would have made that pledge at the election herself.

RobD

Bitcoin down to 10k.. I think both Ed and Robert sold at the peak.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

Bitcoin down to 10k.. I think both Ed and Robert sold at the peak.

And Ethereum dropped more than 30 percent over the last 24 hours.

Those with BitConnect are even worse off.....Serious investigation is required into this,

https://themerkle.com/ponzi-scheme-bitconnect-plummets-90/

old_labour

rcs1000 said:

MikeSmithson said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous.
LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance.

This YouGov model is a joke.

Eastbourne was also extraordinary because it voted by LEAVE 58% - 42%

The LibDems were fortunate indeed that Plato was out canvassing.

I can imagine what Plato's cats would say to that.

PClipp

David_Evershed said:

MikeSmithson said:

rcs1000 said:

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous. LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance. This YouGov model is a joke.

Eastbourne was also extraordinary because it voted by LEAVE 58% - 42%

And also extraordinary because the winning here Lib Dem candidate was Stephen Lloyd. He was born in Kenya - like Obama?

That was in the days of the Empire, Mr Evershed. So presumably not a problem for you.

PClipp

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

Given that UKIP are dead for all practical purposes and the Lib Dems are on life support I suspect that the gap between the big 2 required to get an overall majority is smaller than it has been for a long time. There's a lot of seats now that will move directly from one to the other on very small swings.

Plus the SNP falling back.

Thanks for the bit about the Lib Dems "being on life support". It now appears that nationally the Lib Dems are 50% ahead of the Tories in terms of national membership. Perhaps you missed that, Mr L. It would not have been mentioned in your Tory Party handout, presumably.

RobD

PClipp said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

Given that UKIP are dead for all practical purposes and the Lib Dems are on life support I suspect that the gap between the big 2 required to get an overall majority is smaller than it has been for a long time. There's a lot of seats now that will move directly from one to the other on very small swings.

Plus the SNP falling back.

Thanks for the bit about the Lib Dems "being on life support". It now appears that nationally the Lib Dems are 50% ahead of the Tories in terms of national membership. Perhaps you missed that, Mr L. It would not have been mentioned in your Tory Party handout, presumably.

Hasn't done much for them in the polls, has it?

swing_voter

AndyJS said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

AndyJS said:

DavidL said:

first?


Paul Mason is exceptionally delusional. It is concerning that he was the voice of economic "wisdom" on Newsnight for so long.

On the other hand his pre-election forecast on Newsnight was closer to the actual result than anyone else's IIRC.

Don't think I ever saw that.

I think he forecast a Tory majority of just 20 seats when everyone else was going with the opinion polls and putting it nearer 100.

So the answer to Mike's question would be "no"?

Remember the YouGov model and the final Survation poll both pointed to the Tories losing their majority. It was just that these were not in line with the landslide narrative and were dismissed.

Yep, I remember mocking this bizarre model that Yougov had come up with to make life interesting. Big mistake. Presumably they will repeat this exercise the next time out.

Labour gain Canterbury? Ridiculous.
LibDems pick up Eastbourne? Not a chance.

This YouGov model is a joke.

In retrospect the Tories should have dumped Brazier as candidate as it became obvious the university/academic element in the constituency was becoming more important. He wasn't a good fit for the seat after about 2010.

In my crystal ball I cant see Labour holding Canterbury next time round, Brazier came across as a bit tired and some smart canvassing/mobilising of the Uni vote meant that Labour pulled a trick that will be hard to repeat. The student vote is fickle at the best of time and Labour seem to have stepped back from some of the enthusiasm for wiping the debt slate...

Next time round I can see Canterbury turning blue and Mansfield going back to red - Eastbourne I just dont know.

The Lib Dems need a fair wind and some good results this Mayor Vince will be wondering if it was worth the effort.

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

I'm confused by the idea that pointing out that vasectomies are free in the context of having 10 kids being a choice is somehow "eugenics" or saying to "sterilise" people. It would only be that if you were somehow making it compulsory rather than a free option for people that we already offer on the NHS!

If we switch the word vasectomy and simply said that "birth control is free" (which it is to all women, again on the NHS) then would that be eugenics?

A remark along those lines did indeed bring the leadership ambitions of Keith Joseph to a juddering halt in 1974.

alex.

On thread topic - who did the Attlee government represent, to take one example?

SquareRoot

RobD said:

Bitcoin down to 10k.. I think both Ed and Robert sold at the peak.

South sea bubble...

TheScreamingEagles

NEW THREAD

DavidL

alex. said:

On thread topic - who did the Attlee government represent, to take one example?

Well Tories, obviously. The evidence is overwhelming. Did he not work closely with a Tory for years before he formed his government? Did he not implement the Tory white paper on the formation of the NHS? Just a Tory. Not like the Messiah at all.

DavidL

PClipp said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DavidL said:

Given that UKIP are dead for all practical purposes and the Lib Dems are on life support I suspect that the gap between the big 2 required to get an overall majority is smaller than it has been for a long time. There's a lot of seats now that will move directly from one to the other on very small swings.

Plus the SNP falling back.

Thanks for the bit about the Lib Dems "being on life support". It now appears that nationally the Lib Dems are 50% ahead of the Tories in terms of national membership. Perhaps you missed that, Mr L. It would not have been mentioned in your Tory Party handout, presumably.

I don't get Tory handouts. Indeed, it is interesting that even the Ruth Davidson e-mail newsletters have almost disappeared since the election. But a pro EU party sitting on 6-8% in the polls at a time when Brexit is supposedly so controversial is indeed on life support.