politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reshuffle has left TMay weaker but has it hastened her dep
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reshuffle has left TMay weaker but has it hastened her departure?
The former shadow CON minister and head of ConHome, Paul Goodman, has given his damning verdict on the reshuffle under the heading “The worst-handled reshuffle in recent history – perhaps ever”.
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https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/950832512338710528
The less said about the moving of Rory Stewart and Dominic Raab the better.
Which is not exactly a compliment when looking at the members of the cabinet.
The only leader Soames has criticised is IDS
On the other benches Kier Starmer might be the only example
I would not be betting on her departure soon. She will remain in place until the Brexit deal is done, it is just too complicated to proceed on any other basis and this is an area where her attention to detail and bureaucratic mindset can be an advantage. But I think the chances of her leading at the next election are significantly diminished from an already low ebb and the gradual repair of her reputation since the election disaster has been undone.
If you think that 2019 is the year she will be replaced, look within the Cabinet for your possibles, probably at the highest ranks. So that means Boris Johnson, David Davis, Amber Rudd and maybe Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and David Lidington (who is looking like her effective deputy and will attract much more attention in the year ahead) are the ones to consider.
For me, that list is in increasing order of value.
Let May run for the next year or two and have a succession then. She will have been PM for 3 to 4 years, nothing particularly remarkable about that.
JohnO and myself are hoping the next Tory leadership contest is between Hunt and McVey.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42633502
He’s not going to say I’m peed off with this move.
He really should be in the cabinet.
Still ranks as very odd to me.
Any betting person who didn't shower a few quid in her direction on Monday evening has missed a trick.
The Conservative Party knows the first rule of politics - you either hang together or you'll all hang separately and Stodge's second rule of politics:
"Parties change leaders when there is a clear alternative and when that alternative is clearly more popular than the incumbent and will safeguard the jobs of MPs in marginal seats"
At the moment, May isn't doing that badly and no obvious alternative is doing that much better.
This wasn't the case with Thatcher in 1990 but it was the case with Major in 1995.
She can’t have her junior ministers outshining her.
She’s a bit to social conservative for my tastes but her fan club includes George Osborne and Bill Cash.
My limited knowledge of the CETA deal is that's very good for manufacturing but not for services and agriculture and while that doesn't bother Canada that much it would certainly bother us.
I've heard talk of a CETA plus which is presumably CETA but with a good deal for UK services (notably, I presume, financial services) and some other areas.
She is only in post because they can't agree A.N.Other to replace her.
Yet.
I dug out my 2017 economic predictions. I think all I can usefully say is ouch:
2.2% growth.
An improvement in our balance of payments (albeit not by much).
Inflation to stay below 2.5%.
Base rates to stay below 1%, just.
Mortgage rates to barely move (again).
The government borrowing figures to surprise on the upside (ie better than currently forecast).
Unemployment to remain broadly static.
Wages to grow by 2% in real terms.
Slightly better growth in the EZ on the back of a more expansive policy by the ECB (possibly using Brexit as an excuse)
We have seen an improvement in BoP, government borrowing did surprise on the upside and there was better growth in the EZ. Unemployment has fallen a bit but not by much. Growth and wage growth were wildly optimistic. They are connected of course.
For 2018 I would forecast:
1.6% growth
Continuing improvement in balance of payments
Falling inflation down to 1.8% by year end
Base rates to increase to 1% by year end
Government borrowing figures to continue to surprise on upside
Unemployment to remain static with decline in employment growth
Wages to start growing in real terms by mid year, mainly due to falling inflation.
Slightly more cautious but steady as she goes.
One other thing that is in Esther's favour is that given her background in television she won't be hiding the sofa when the TV debates are taking place... Unlike you know who...
UK manufacturing has achieved more growth in the past 18 months than it achieved in the previous 16 years.
However, the EUs obligations to enter into a trade deal will NOT be a legal liability - it will only be a 'political declaration'. So whatever we agree with the EU now regarding trade they can roll back after Brexit but we have to pay the bill regardless. This is the position our traitorous civil service has hoisted upon us.
For the detail of the "three buckets" approach to the Brexit deal, supposedly getting the interest of the UK government, read section 4, EU-UK Regulatory partnership here. The UK would start this scheme in full alignment with the other EU members with current payments and Freedom of Movement, Customs Union etc. Moving forward it would commit to continuing certain parts of the EU acquis; it would disengage in a managed way on other parts; there would be a middle part where the UK would become independent of the rules but remain aligned, with an agreed cost to the UK to do so. I imagine the EU would be happy with part 1 - full implementation of parts of the acquis. They should also be OK with the UK disengaging other parts, provided they were agreed in advance and especially if they are outside the Single Market acquis. The middle bucket is the tricky one. I think the EU will be very reluctant to allow unilateral disengagement by the UK and would want to control it.
The big advantages of the "three buckets" approach are that it is quick to agree because there is no initial change, and that it delays the cliff edge indefinitely. It allows potential divergence. In reality we would likely remain in the Single Market. If we have any sense we will stay in the Customs Union too as it eases trade with our by far biggest partner and our best available third party deals are replicas of the third party deals we already have through the EU.
Will it happen? Once you realise Brexit is entirely a rhetorical exercise with unwelcome real consequences, things slip into place. The important negotiation is to get the EU to agree to pretend the UK is a free agent. The UK government can also claim the UK third party deals are better than the original EU ones they simulate, even though they will be more limited, because these are UK deals and those are EU ones.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/trade-after-brexit
Housing?
Mrs May too weak to move ministers?
Her success in getting past "Phase 1" in December gave her enough currency to do this, and she had to do it prior to the (inevitable) difficulties on negotiating transition and the heads-of-terms for the full deal.
The issue (as always) is her secrecy, inability to think flexibly on her feet and poor empathy.
Those weaknesses aren't going to go away.
She is flawed and a terrible communicator but she also has strengths and it is those strengths that will see her survive to mid 2019 as Brexit is concluded one way or another.
ConHome is not representative of all of the membership and I fully support her appointments yesterday as she moves the new MP's into junior positions and gives them a chance.
It is interesting that the obnoxious hard left have restarted their abusive and bullying campaign against Esther McVey and it is time that the labour party called these people out.
I do not expect or even want Theresa to take us into the next election but she is the right politician at the right time doing a job that impossible to imagine anyone else being able to do better.
Yesterday's avalanche of attacks on Theresa May seemed to be orchestrated by the left (fair enough) but also those who are remain fanatics who seem to think that if they can discredit her they will see her fall and with her fall Brexit will not happen. Indeed there may some truth in that but in the end Brexit will pass and those conservatives who are gunning for her need to realize there is a much bigger picture and that is to unite to win the next GE.
If there is a transition arrangement then ongoing contributions by the UK to the EU will need to be made of course.
Those who voted Leave and actually meant it need to get wise to this ploy as fast as possible or we will end up with EU membership by the back door.
I heard some time ago that he had said that Health would be his last job in government and that seems to be the case, maybe other than leader
My reading is that there is a split in the EU27 between some EU countries who are more pragmatic and want to do their best to accommodate the UK's wishes, and France and Germany who are maintaining a hard line.
Barnier is trying his best to steer a line between them. There is also talk of the UK becoming a "model" for very close 3rd countries with the EU in future who do not wish to become full members (UK, Turkey and Ukraine, but perhaps also others like Switzerland in longer term)
This would work in that the EU could defend itself and that it's a distinct alternative model to EEA or CETA that could subsequently be credibly offered to those other countries.
This will play out over the rest of this year.
Interesting.
I'm not sure how well she'd do the empathy or mood music as a leader/PM.
For regulating global ports, financial services, and new technology, we're going to want a bit more flexibility, they're going to want not to be undercut and a level of oversight control. Hence the negotiation.
We may agree rules for a new disputes body that agrees which "bucket" future regulations should fall into.
I haven't laughed so much since Toby's Kleenex gag.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/951061068431769605
The lack of obvious successor does mean that his chance may come, young cardinals etc.
All of them have to hope may holds on to 2021 or wait for another set of leadership elections in the meantime.
If he can square that circle...
At a time when pay equality is under scrutiny at the BBC, Radio 2 confirmed Mayo and Whiley will earn the same.
According to figures published by the BBC last July, Mayo currently receives a salary in the range £350,000 - £399,999, while Whiley is paid £150,000 - £199,999.
http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-42633173
I somehow doubt they got to equal pay by Mayo taking a 50% pay cut....the over inflated salaries of some of BBC Radio "stars" are going to cut them a fortune now that everybody is going to get uprated.