The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
This is the taking back control by having no customs borders Leave argument again, isn't it.
Choosing to have no border is a choice which isn't available now.
We are in a trade arrangement now whereby we have helped to formulate an agreement on a mutual external border. And you are saying that we would be more in control by not having a border, thereby letting anyone who fancies come into our country. Bizarre.
Who said anything about free movement of people ?
So let goods come in but not people. Policed how, exactly?
Passport controls and work permits. Like wot we have now.
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
We can't opt for free trade. We can opt not to impose any tariffs or regulatory barriers for people who import goods and services, but that is completely different; and is, of course, something that the government has already ruled out.
Of course we can, with a unilateral declaration that customs barriers will be abolished. That's what a sovereign nation can do.
That is not opting for free trade. Trade is a two way thing involving imports and exports. If we do not impose tariffs or regulatory obstacles but others do there is no free trade. There is just us making the unilateral decision to give no country anywhere in the world any incentive to agree any kind of trade deal with us.
It maximises the welfare of consumers in our country. If other countries want to penalise their consumers that's their business.
Does it ?
These days I'd have said it maximises the welfare of certain consumers in our country
If youve had 10 years of wage stagnation your welfare probably hasnt been maximised
Good luck selling French goods in Britain if we don't impose any tarrifs on their goods and they slap one on ours.
Suspect new world wines may see an uptick in sales.
How would that work? If we do not impose tariffs then why would the price rise and sales drop? Surely British consumers would continue to enjoy cheap French wine and German cars?
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
This is the taking back control by having no customs borders Leave argument again, isn't it.
Choosing to have no border is a choice which isn't available now.
We are in a trade arrangement now whereby we have helped to formulate an agreement on a mutual external border. And you are saying that we would be more in control by not having a border, thereby letting anyone who fancies come into our country. Bizarre.
Who said anything about free movement of people ?
So let goods come in but not people. Policed how, exactly?
Passport controls and work permits. Like wot we have now.
So we will have a border, but not a customs border? In the context of NI/Eire is there a difference?
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
This is the taking back control by having no customs borders Leave argument again, isn't it.
Choosing to have no border is a choice which isn't available now.
We are in a trade arrangement now whereby we have helped to formulate an agreement on a mutual external border. And you are saying that we would be more in control by not having a border, thereby letting anyone who fancies come into our country. Bizarre.
Who said anything about free movement of people ?
So let goods come in but not people. Policed how, exactly?
Passport controls and work permits. Like wot we have now.
So we will have a border, but not a customs border? In the context of NI/Eire is there a difference?
We already have a VAT border and income tax border and corporation tax border between NI and Ireland.
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
This is the taking back control by having no customs borders Leave argument again, isn't it.
Choosing to have no border is a choice which isn't available now.
We are in a trade arrangement now whereby we have helped to formulate an agreement on a mutual external border. And you are saying that we would be more in control by not having a border, thereby letting anyone who fancies come into our country. Bizarre.
Who said anything about free movement of people ?
So let goods come in but not people. Policed how, exactly?
Passport controls and work permits. Like wot we have now.
So we will have a border, but not a customs border? In the context of NI/Eire is there a difference?
We already have a VAT border and income tax border and corporation tax border between NI and Ireland.
Good luck selling French goods in Britain if we don't impose any tarrifs on their goods and they slap one on ours.
Suspect new world wines may see an uptick in sales.
How would that work? If we do not impose tariffs then why would the price rise and sales drop? Surely British consumers would continue to enjoy cheap French wine and German cars?
All we'd be doing is making imports cheaper and exports more expensive, so massively increasing our balance of trade deficit and putting huge numbers of jobs at risk while destroying the tax base. It's a non-starter.
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
This is the taking back control by having no customs borders Leave argument again, isn't it.
Choosing to have no border is a choice which isn't available now.
We are in a trade arrangement now whereby we have helped to formulate an agreement on a mutual external border. And you are saying that we would be more in control by not having a border, thereby letting anyone who fancies come into our country. Bizarre.
Who said anything about free movement of people ?
So let goods come in but not people. Policed how, exactly?
Passport controls and work permits. Like wot we have now.
We are happy for people to come here on holiday but (non EU and EU post Brexit) to work they must get work permits. people found working without work permits are deported and their company prosecuted.
Somebody posted a link to the Bannon interview with Vanity Fair earlier.
This idea is not without merit. Banks are tightly regulated for exactly the same reason: the service they provide is fundamental to the economy
And he told me he thinks the government should regulate Google and Facebook like public utilities. “They’re too powerful. I want to make sure their data is a public trust.
So that would be UK...one country...three legal systems...and four laws (recognising that while Wales is part of E&W jurisdiction and legal system it nevertheless has different laws)
Penddu - as a Welshman born, raised and living again in England, I am fully seized of the fact that there are four countries within the United Kingdom. Try arguing that you should have a case heard under Scottish law in Manchester and see how far you get. Similarly under Californian law in Montana.
My point, clumsily expressed, was that legal systems should adhere to the systems of government for the unit of government they are in. The ECJ, as @FF43 notes, is there to standardise things. But what the EU appears to be proposing is to give it a new role providing enforceable legal oversight over people living in a foreign jurisdiction so they can live under a different set of laws from their immediate neighbours. Which is a total nonsense.
If people can't see that this won't work, I'm quite worried.
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
We can't opt for free trade. We can opt not to impose any tariffs or regulatory barriers for people who import goods and services, but that is completely different; and is, of course, something that the government has already ruled out.
Of course we can, with a unilateral declaration that customs barriers will be abolished. That's what a sovereign nation can do.
That is not opting for free trade. Trade is a two way thing involving imports and exports. If we do not impose tariffs or regulatory obstacles but others do there is no free trade. There is just us making the unilateral decision to give no country anywhere in the world any incentive to agree any kind of trade deal with us.
It maximises the welfare of consumers in our country. If other countries want to penalise their consumers that's their business.
It does not maximise the welfare of consumers who have jobs which may be affected by imports or exports.
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Banding. The jobs advertised were at a fairly junior grade. Even so there are lots of vacancies, and high turnover. They had to send a press gang to the FCO to staff it. No one wants a job with no promotion possibilities and extinction within a couple of years.
One big Brexit mistake was making DExEU a seperate department competing with the FCO. It would have been better to have it under that umbrella.
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
It's the EU who want a customs border, not the UK. It will be on their side of the line if it exists at all.
An Irish friend says the smugglers are probably already planning their operations. Once goods cease to move freely between the Irish Republic and N.Ireland, and it's WTO, there'll be profits in it.
Maybe there'll be opportunities for much more lucrative VAT fraud. Will Irish co.s have to charge VAT on cross-border supplies to N.I or vice versa? Today cross-border supplies are charged VAT at 0% if the buyer gives the seller his VAT number.
Goods retailed outside the EU are VAT-free. Retailers selling to a customer in another member state must usually charge standard rate VAT:
The ECJ is where I think potential problems may arise. I have two key objections to it - (1) I happen to believe as a point of principle that everybody in the same country should be answerable to the same law and (2) more pertinently, the ECJ is both toothless and very prone to siding with whoever shouts the loudest. It is a weak and ineffectual court and certainly not something I would be willing to depend on. British courts by contrast are certainly not without their faults but have real teeth (witness the time they forced the government to bring back somebody who had been illegally deported - the ECJ for all their bluster could never have done that).
So if there is any sign of caving in and allowing it permanent oversight separately from our own legal system, that's a serious matter, especially for EU citizens who would effectively lose the right to have the more robust protection of the British courts. I'm pretty unhappy about its being allowed to have jurisdiction beyond next year as it is (it's one of the less edifying features of the EU) - any further extension is a big no-no.
Incidentally, I think your principled objection to the ECJ may be a misunderstanding. I assume when you say everybody in the same country should be answerable to the same law, you are thinking of cases such as EU citizens being able to bring their non-EU spouses over, but UK citizens can't? If so, that's a particular EU law that the UK has agreed to implement as part of its treaty obligations to the EU. The UK government has furthermore chosen to discriminate against its own citizens, which it is allowed to do under that law. The application of the law, which is where the ECJ comes in, is effected the same way for everyone to which that law applies.
Good luck selling French goods in Britain if we don't impose any tarrifs on their goods and they slap one on ours.
Suspect new world wines may see an uptick in sales.
How would that work? If we do not impose tariffs then why would the price rise and sales drop? Surely British consumers would continue to enjoy cheap French wine and German cars?
All we'd be doing is making imports cheaper and exports more expensive, so massively increasing our balance of trade deficit and putting huge numbers of jobs at risk while destroying the tax base. It's a non-starter.
Ach again the left don't understand the market.
Imagine the backlash vs French goods if they slap our beef etc with a tariff - will be brand crippling.
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
We out.
Of course we can, with a unilateral declaration that customs barriers will be abolished. That's what a sovereign nation can do.
That with us.
It maximises the welfare of consumers in our country. If other countries want to penalise their consumers that's their business.
It does not maximise the welfare of consumers who have jobs which may be affected by imports or exports.
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Define "short run" and how would pay packets be affected? If demand is reduced by fewer people having jobs or there being fewer well paid jobs, then there is less incentive to employ people, pay those you do employ decent wages or to invest in R&D or new product roll-out. Why would any manufacturer, for example, locate in the UK if there were no barriers to importing into this country but significant ones to exporting from it? Why would any country want to do a trade deal with a UK that had unilaterally scrapped all tariffs and regulatory impediments to imports?
Good luck selling French goods in Britain if we don't impose any tarrifs on their goods and they slap one on ours.
Suspect new world wines may see an uptick in sales.
How would that work? If we do not impose tariffs then why would the price rise and sales drop? Surely British consumers would continue to enjoy cheap French wine and German cars?
All we'd be doing is making imports cheaper and exports more expensive, so massively increasing our balance of trade deficit and putting huge numbers of jobs at risk while destroying the tax base. It's a non-starter.
Ach again the left don't understand the market.
Imagine the backlash vs French goods if they slap our beef etc with a tariff - will be brand crippling.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
Good luck selling French goods in Britain if we don't impose any tarrifs on their goods and they slap one on ours.
Suspect new world wines may see an uptick in sales.
How would that work? If we do not impose tariffs then why would the price rise and sales drop? Surely British consumers would continue to enjoy cheap French wine and German cars?
All we'd be doing is making imports cheaper and exports more expensive, so massively increasing our balance of trade deficit and putting huge numbers of jobs at risk while destroying the tax base. It's a non-starter.
Ach again the left don't understand the market.
Imagine the backlash vs French goods if they slap our beef etc with a tariff - will be brand crippling.
How would anyone know French beef was being sold to them if regulatory obstacles to imports had been scrapped? In any case, all the French (actually the EU) would be doing would be applying the tariffs all other WTO countries would be applying.
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Given that this theoretical scenario isn't one shared by industry can I ask if you have any real world practical experience of international trade...?
Good luck selling French goods in Britain if we don't impose any tarrifs on their goods and they slap one on ours.
Suspect new world wines may see an uptick in sales.
How would that work? If we do not impose tariffs then why would the price rise and sales drop? Surely British consumers would continue to enjoy cheap French wine and German cars?
All we'd be doing is making imports cheaper and exports more expensive, so massively increasing our balance of trade deficit and putting huge numbers of jobs at risk while destroying the tax base. It's a non-starter.
Ach again the left don't understand the market.
Imagine the backlash vs French goods if they slap our beef etc with a tariff - will be brand crippling.
How would anyone know French beef was being sold to them if regulatory obstacles to imports had been scrapped? In any case, all the French (actually the EU) would be doing would be applying the tariffs all other WTO countries would be applying.
When you are buying your steak bake at Greggs don't you always spend 5 minutes asking the proprietor about the provenance of your meat?
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Given that this theoretical scenario isn't one shared by industry can I ask if you have any real world practical experience of international trade...?
He'll have read Dan Hannan and is now an expert...
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Given that this theoretical scenario isn't one shared by industry can I ask if you have any real world practical experience of international trade...?
@GeoffW argument is correct. In itself, it's more an argument to remain in the main though rather than leave.. and certainly an argument against WTO leaving where we have to implement trade barriers aiui. This version of leaving wasn't really put forward in the main during the referendum, Dan Hannan's small hors d'oeuvre to Farage's anti-immigration feast.
I do wish my fellow Brexiteers would stop proposing unilateral tariff abolition. One of the few ways we’ve got to incentivise others to open their markets to us is to offer access to our own. Why does this matter? If we can’t export, we can’t import, because we won’t be earning the foreign currency to pay for it.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Somebody posted a link to the Bannon interview with Vanity Fair earlier.
This idea is not without merit. Banks are tightly regulated for exactly the same reason: the service they provide is fundamental to the economy
And he told me he thinks the government should regulate Google and Facebook like public utilities. “They’re too powerful. I want to make sure their data is a public trust.
He has a point. The US had a good record of regulating privately-owned electric and gas companies, at least it did before Clinton and Bush capitulated to deregulation. It was better than the system the UK had after privatisation.
Maybe internet operators should not just be regulated but also blocked from censoring the messages particular customers see and thereby creating left- and right-wing 'echo chambers'. I can't follow why Facebook, Google, etc surround people who are already being criticised as 'snowflakes' by a further comfort blanket.
Anyway, we all owe Toby Young an apology. Apparently he is being hired because of his “caustic wit”.
Toby, who is 54, excuses his tweets by saying they were "sophomoric and silly".
To be fair, we should be quite indulgent of old tweets or comments that a person later regrets. Who on here hasn't done the same?
I did find it interesting in the last thread that there was a feeling that it was impossible for Quangos to have open appointments that would not be a feast for the HR and legal sharks. If we have to obey these equality laws, why should government be exempt?
They should not be above the law, and all these posts advertised and appointed openly, and where senior, ratified by the appropriate Commons committee. Either we are serious about opening up government to the meritocracy, or we should scrap the pretence.
Just listening to ITV Wales which is featuring the crisis in the NHS here in Wales. Every bit as bad, even worse than England, but the labour Wales Health Secretary has refused to face the cameras. At least Jeremy Hunt came out and apologised and ITV Wales are siting how Jeremy Hunt and the PM have faced the media, while Welsh labour have not only refused to apologise but are in hiding
I cannot remember the last time I flew from the UK to an Irish airport (Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Kerry) when I didn't have to show my UK passport on arrival! It is not required the other way - a boarding pass is sufficient at UK airports for Republic arrivals.
Somebody posted a link to the Bannon interview with Vanity Fair earlier.
This idea is not without merit. Banks are tightly regulated for exactly the same reason: the service they provide is fundamental to the economy
And he told me he thinks the government should regulate Google and Facebook like public utilities. “They’re too powerful. I want to make sure their data is a public trust.
He has a point. The US had a good record of regulating privately-owned electric and gas companies, at least it did before Clinton and Bush capitulated to deregulation. It was better than the system the UK had after privatisation.
Maybe internet operators should not just be regulated but also blocked from censoring the messages particular customers see and thereby creating left- and right-wing 'echo chambers'. I can't follow why Facebook, Google, etc surround people who are already being criticised as 'snowflakes' by a further comfort blanket.
Perhaps the Gov't here should loosen up on the old monopolies and mergers blocks. Is it Sky that is always getting blocked being bought by Newscorp or Fox ? Meanwhile the 0.5+T $ titans across the pond grow by swallowing our brightest and best companies whole (Google buying Deepmind for less than a billion looks like the steal of the century for instance)...
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Given that this theoretical scenario isn't one shared by industry can I ask if you have any real world practical experience of international trade...?
He'll have read Dan Hannan and is now an expert...
Dan Hannan's opinions on the single market and customs union are quoted ad nauseum by hard line remainers.
Who cares what Cameron, Gove, Leadsom, Stuart, Johnson and Farage said about leaving the single market during the referendum campaign - apparently everyone was listening to Hannan and assumed leaving the EU meant staying in the single market and paid no attention to the leaders of the campaigns who were on telly daily. I doubt 98 per cent of voters have any idea who Mr Hannan is - yet apparently his opinions on the matter have achieved zen like status with the hardcore remainers.
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Define "short run" and how would pay packets be affected? If demand is reduced by fewer people having jobs or there being fewer well paid jobs, then there is less incentive to employ people, pay those you do employ decent wages or to invest in R&D or new product roll-out. Why would any manufacturer, for example, locate in the UK if there were no barriers to importing into this country but significant ones to exporting from it? Why would any country want to do a trade deal with a UK that had unilaterally scrapped all tariffs and regulatory impediments to imports?
Define "short run" Short run is the period before which full adaptation to the changes has taken place.
If demand is reduced by fewer people having jobs ... Irrelevant. As I explained above, the level of aggregate demand is what determines employment. You have inverted cause and effect.
Why would any manufacturer, for example, locate in the UK if there were no barriers to importing into this country but significant ones to exporting from it? They would do so because it is profitable. The exchange rate will have made it so.
Why would any country want to do a trade deal ... They wouldn’t. A trade deal is not needed.
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Given that this theoretical scenario isn't one shared by industry can I ask if you have any real world practical experience of international trade...?
He'll have read Dan Hannan and is now an expert...
Dan Hannan's opinions on the single market and customs union are quoted ad nauseum by hard line remainers.
Who cares what Cameron, Gove, Leadsom, Stuart, Johnson and Farage said about leaving the single market during the referendum campaign - apparently everyone was listening to Hannan and assumed leaving the EU meant staying in the single market and paid no attention to the leaders of the campaigns who were on telly daily. I doubt 98 per cent of voters have any idea who Mr Hannan is - yet apparently his opinions on the matter have achieved zen like status with the hardcore remainers.
How many of the Brexit supporters who said we would leave the single market said that it would have any consequences? This is what Gove said before the referendum:
There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU. After we vote to leave we will stay in this zone.
Anyway, we all owe Toby Young an apology. Apparently he is being hired because of his “caustic wit”.
Toby, who is 54, excuses his tweets by saying they were "sophomoric and silly".
I loathe Boris Johnson. He’s the sort of Englishman who thinks being caustic or witty is somehow worthwhile in itself, regardless of whether the person making the remark has said anything worth listening to or achieved anything substantive. It’s all about clever clogs showing off - suitable for a 15 year old schoolboy, maybe. But not for a serious grown up. No wonder he thinks Young is suitable.
It would be nice to see people in public life thinking before they speak or Twitter. Thought before speech used to be the mark of an adult. Now the first barely sensible “thought” gets passed on.
Like Orwell’s duckspeak, it is speech issued from the larynx - or fingers - without involving the higher brain centres at all.
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
Given that this theoretical scenario isn't one shared by industry can I ask if you have any real world practical experience of international trade...?
As a matter of fact, yes - as an importer of goods from countries both within and outside the EU. Between 1979 and 1984.
Anyway, we all owe Toby Young an apology. Apparently he is being hired because of his “caustic wit”.
Toby, who is 54, excuses his tweets by saying they were "sophomoric and silly".
To be fair, we should be quite indulgent of old tweets or comments that a person later regrets. Who on here hasn't done the same?
I did find it interesting in the last thread that there was a feeling that it was impossible for Quangos to have open appointments that would not be a feast for the HR and legal sharks. If we have to obey these equality laws, why should government be exempt?
They should not be above the law, and all these posts advertised and appointed openly, and where senior, ratified by the appropriate Commons committee. Either we are serious about opening up government to the meritocracy, or we should scrap the pretence.
I quite agree. When I suggested it on the previous thread you’d have thought I was proposing drowning kittens.
I am not indulgent of someone who is a journalist who issues provocative tweets precisely to get attention then later claims that he should be forgiven because at the age of 40 or whatever he was behaving like a teenager. He knew what he was doing. He liked the notoriety. Very different from someone behaving like an arse at 18 and then growing up.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
Top move...
It shows the same tin ear as offering a free railcard that couldn’t be used at the sort of time anyone would want to use it.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Fascinating piece on Trump from Michael Wolff. The psychology of wanting to come close but not actually win has remarkable parallels with Brexit.
“This is bigger than I ever dreamed of,” he told Ailes a week before the election. “I don’t think about losing, because it isn’t losing. We’ve totally won.”
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
Top move...
Care to name a Tory who is popular with students (particularly the politically active kind?).
I often think a lot of what the Conservatives are doing is picking people with the nous to suggest ideas that may be popular with the parents of students or adolescent children, who may already be sympathetic to the Conservative Party. Toby Young would fit well in that mould.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
so not the typical Leaver profile you described. Just as with @brendan16 you are trying to create a narrative whereby Remainers are patronising which allows you to deflect from the implications of your vote.
Be fair, he scores three out of four!
Yes that is true; but for an Old Gower, perhaps he thinks an unfashionable part of the country means Swiss Cottage which isn't all that bad.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
so not the typical Leaver profile you described. Just as with @brendan16 you are trying to create a narrative whereby Remainers are patronising which allows you to deflect from the implications of your vote.
Be fair, he scores three out of four!
Yes that is true; but for an Old Gower, perhaps he thinks an unfashionable part of the country means Swiss Cottage which isn't all that bad.
I live in Luton.
My condolences
Oh, it's not so bad. I don't live among the terrorists.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
Top move...
I expect Toby Young's tweets and comments will have even less of an impact on voting intentions than the opinions of Dan Hannan on single market membership.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
Top move...
Care to name a Tory who is popular with students (particularly the politically active kind?).
Toff who won I'm a celebrity? A future Cabinet minister perhaps too!
She has the full package according to Tory sources apparently - intellect, charm and looks!
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
People in the wine trade are expecting WTO tariffs in the event of no deal. That surely is not a fictitious issue?
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate. Trade overall will increase as barriers to trade are removed, so export production will also increase pari passu. The removal of artificial constraints makes us better off overall. Aggregate demand is what determines the level of employment. While it is true that particular jobs may be affected, that happens all the time in a dynamically changing economy, however the total level of employment is unaffected by removal of import duties, except in the short run.
This makes sense as a theory. In practice there will be more trade barriers after Brexit and hence less trade, overall. The question is whether we can get a trade deal with the EU that means fewer trade barriers overall than your proposed unilateral removal of import tariffs. We would have to mess things up badly not to do so.
Currently there are no tariffs or formal non-tariff barriers on exports to and imports from the EU. There are tariffs and NTBs on imports and exports to third countries but these are mitigated by a raft of preferential trade agreements with those countries. EU tariffs and NTBs are generally average to low by international standards.
If we don't have a meaningful PTA with the EU (as implied by a unilateral removal of import tariffs) we will see barriers go up and trade significantly reduce on EU exports. EU imports are unaffected as we have no barriers anyway. Imports from non-EU countries are improved as we remove EU import barriers. Exports to non-EU countries depend on the degree to which they are prepared to roll over existing agreements with the EU. The chances are that they won't entirely and not necessarily immediately. In summary exports to the EU will reduce very substantially, exports to non-EU countries will reduce somewhat, imports from the EU are unaffected and imports from non-EU countries will increase somewhat.
If we have a preferential trade agreement with the EU they will probably insist on regulatory alignment. In summary exports to the EU will reduce somewhat, exports to non-EU countries will reduce somewhat, imports from the EU will reduce somewhat and imports from non-EU countries will be unaffected. If we remain in the EU Customs Union the reduction in EU exports and imports will be substantially mitigated, as will exports of services in particular if we remain in the Single Market.
Unilateral elimination of import barriers will drastically weaken producer and consumer protections for domestic goods. Leaving the SM and CU will negatively affect investment.
The reason why that there is a blip towards Brexit was wrong in the polls is that the Remain case has been dominating the media for months on end, Project fear has been in full swing, and the Leave arguments have not been made.
But we do not have government by opinion poll. The decision was taken in June 2016 at the referendum.
Remoaners should stop trying to frustrate that referendum result. Respect the Brexit vote, give it a chance to succeed, and if it is the disaster you predict, then campaign to rejoin the EU at a later date.
Right, so where do we put the customs border with Ireland?
We opt for free trade, so it's up to the EU to erect a customs border to protect their precious industries.
We can opt not to impose any tariffs or regulatory barriers for people who import goods and services, but that is completely different; and is, of course, something that the government has already ruled out.
Have they ? When ? Link ?
Sadly, there is zero chance that the government will abolish all tariffs on imports to the UK. In particular, it would be devastating to the farming community in the UK, and they would (rightly) complain that they are required to produce food under certain conditions, but that food imported from the US or Ukraine was not subject to the same rules.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
Top move...
Care to name a Tory who is popular with students (particularly the politically active kind?).
Toff who won I'm a celebrity? A future Cabinet minister perhaps too!
She has the full package according to Tory sources apparently - intellect, charm and looks!
I see the Toby Young thing is still rumbling on, with his leering, locker-room tweets having been unearthed. To be fair to Theresa, from the very few articles of his I'd read, I always assumed he was dull but earnest. So perhaps Theresa can be forgiven for not knowing quite what she was getting. But surely someone, one of his mates in the Johnson family for example, knew what he was like an could have warned her. What an avoidable blunder.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
They will be legally saleable until there is regulatory divergence. So, for example, if chlorinated chicken enters the UK food chain it will not be saleable in the EU. But we are going to have regulatory alignment in the final deal we do, so I agree it will not be an issue.
I cannot remember the last time I flew from the UK to an Irish airport (Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Kerry) when I didn't have to show my UK passport on arrival! It is not required the other way - a boarding pass is sufficient at UK airports for Republic arrivals.
Yes, Ireland requires passports for CTA travel by air. That said, IME as soon as the bored Garda who's drawn the short straw that morning sees a maroon passport cover he waves you through without actually opening the thing.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
They will be legally saleable until there is regulatory divergence. So, for example, if chlorinated chicken enters the UK food chain it will not be saleable in the EU. But we are going to have regulatory convergence in the final deal we do, so I agree it will not be an issue.
If we leave the Customs Union, every shipment of animal origin will be subject to veterinary check at the border lasting at least 30 minutes. No ifs or buts. Other produce will be subject to rules of origin compliance and paperwork. Automotive exports to the EU will be subject to 10% tariffs unless they are at least 60% EU content.
What is interesting is that it is now Labour voters who are most split on Brexit, before the EU referendum when Cameron was still Tory leader and UKIP were still a force it was the Tories who were most split.
Now just 69% of Labour voters back Remain compared to 81% of LD voters while 72% of Tory voters back Leave. Those numbers explain the Labour leaderships current lack of a clear position on the Brexit process and long-term outcome.
There's been a shake out, as Labour Leave voters shift rightward, and Conservative Remain voters shift leftward.
Rest assured, this Labour Leaver is not shifting rightward!
Give it time.
I agreed with sandy twice last week and I ain 't a lefty - it's already happening.
Sandy's a good egg.
One ambiguously positive outcome of the EU referendum and its aftermath (for me, at least) is that it brought me much closer to our Labour posters, and the concerns of traditional Labour voters.
BBC saying NHS has cancelled non urgent operations. It hasn't. They have been postponed.
It also reports that "Some ambulance services have EVEN started asking 999 callers with less serious problems to make their own way to hospital so they can prioritise the most life-threatening calls."
Why the use of the word "even", implying this is an unreasonable request?
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
They will be legally saleable until there is regulatory divergence. So, for example, if chlorinated chicken enters the UK food chain it will not be saleable in the EU. But we are going to have regulatory convergence in the final deal we do, so I agree it will not be an issue.
If we leave the Customs Union, every shipment of animal origin will be subject to veterinary check at the border lasting at least 30 minutes. No ifs or buts. Other produce will be subject to rules of origin compliance and paperwork. Automotive exports to the EU will be subject to 10% tariffs unless they are at least 60% EU content.
To me it seems quite hard to find a political bet at the moment. It simply escapes me that BF aren't running something like 'PM on 01jan19' - Corbyn tells us he's the fav!
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
People in the wine trade are expecting WTO tariffs in the event of no deal. That surely is not a fictitious issue?
People in the Uk will not be able to afford wine with or without tariffs - because of Brexit.
A couple of comments on this. Firstly the ECJ system places a lot of trust on the independence and competence of national courts. The undermining of the rule of law in Poland in particular also undermines the functioning of the EU in one of its member states.
Secondly, you could argue that the ECJ is not the extra-territorial monster it is made out to be as judgments are all made by national courts. For that argument to have value people need to understand how the ECJ actually works rather than how they imagine it works.
So again we come back to the point that what is proposed is a role for which the ECJ is wholly unsuited and where it has demonstrated its feebleness.
So even leaving aside principled objections - why is this being put forward, apparently in all seriousness, by the EU? Have they taken leave of what passes for their senses, are they trolling or did they actually not expect this to be taken seriously?
The ECJ has always been a service that issues advice to national courts. You could argue it is feeble because it trusts the national courts to do their jobs, but you can't at the same time accuse it of being overbearing.
Edit. I come back to the point. The function of the ECJ is to establish a consistency of judicial interpretation. A consistency that in an ideal world would be happening anyway because all courts are interpreting the same law.
It also decides upon the interpretation of EU treaties, when such cases are brought to it, and has developed something of a reputation for broad interpretations of the TFEU.
One of the things that brought Boris round to Leave, strongly influenced by his wife, was their believe the ECJ had started to resort to judicial activism in further pursuing federalisation.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
I only clocked it when I logged onto Twitter today, I've only logged on two or three times over the past few days, and wouldn't have known anything about it otherwise.
As far as I can tell, his offence is that he's a Tory.
What is interesting is that it is now Labour voters who are most split on Brexit, before the EU referendum when Cameron was still Tory leader and UKIP were still a force it was the Tories who were most split.
Now just 69% of Labour voters back Remain compared to 81% of LD voters while 72% of Tory voters back Leave. Those numbers explain the Labour leaderships current lack of a clear position on the Brexit process and long-term outcome.
There's been a shake out, as Labour Leave voters shift rightward, and Conservative Remain voters shift leftward.
Rest assured, this Labour Leaver is not shifting rightward!
Give it time.
I agreed with sandy twice last week and I ain 't a lefty - it's already happening.
Sandy's a good egg.
One ambiguously positive outcome of the EU referendum and its aftermath (for me, at least) is that it brought me much closer to our Labour posters, and the concerns of traditional Labour voters.
Hopefully an organic free range egg - otherwise my other half would leave me on the shelf!
I see Donald Trump and Steve Bannon are now at it hammer and tongs. This is a weird feeling - I'm actually finding myself siding with Donald!
Trump is getting better. He, quite correctly, put the Palestinians in their place. I'm simply astonished to find myself agreeing with him on anything. However on this I do.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
Top move...
Care to name a Tory who is popular with students (particularly the politically active kind?).
I often think a lot of what the Conservatives are doing is picking people with the nous to suggest ideas that may be popular with the parents of students or adolescent children, who may already be sympathetic to the Conservative Party. Toby Young would fit well in that mould.
Students, and the education sector more broadly, are not the political possession of the Left by right.
I imagine they're upset because, together with Jo Johnson's move on free speech on campuses, they think it might be the thin-end of the wedge.
What is interesting is that it is now Labour voters who are most split on Brexit, before the EU referendum when Cameron was still Tory leader and UKIP were still a force it was the Tories who were most split.
Now just 69% of Labour voters back Remain compared to 81% of LD voters while 72% of Tory voters back Leave. Those numbers explain the Labour leaderships current lack of a clear position on the Brexit process and long-term outcome.
There's been a shake out, as Labour Leave voters shift rightward, and Conservative Remain voters shift leftward.
Rest assured, this Labour Leaver is not shifting rightward!
Give it time.
I agreed with sandy twice last week and I ain 't a lefty - it's already happening.
Sandy's a good egg.
One ambiguously positive outcome of the EU referendum and its aftermath (for me, at least) is that it brought me much closer to our Labour posters, and the concerns of traditional Labour voters.
Hopefully an organic free range egg - otherwise my other half would leave me on the shelf!
I don't think they come any more free ranging than you, Sandy!
BBC saying NHS has cancelled non urgent operations. It hasn't. They have been postponed.
It also reports that "Some ambulance services have EVEN started asking 999 callers with less serious problems to make their own way to hospital so they can prioritise the most life-threatening calls."
Why the use of the word "even", implying this is an unreasonable request?
Overnight, waiting lists have gone up by six weeks. Assuming normal service is resumed in Feb.
It took us years to get them down by six weeks, its pretty depressing for all concerned. One of the most depressing things about working in the NHS is seeing years of effort going down the drain.
Our imports and exports are kept in balance by movements in the exchange rate.
The academic evidence for that is rather mixed, to put it mildly. If you look around the world today, the countries with the biggest current account deficits are the UK and the US, both of which have freely floating currencies.
Going further back in time, current account and trade deficits were much more modest during both the Gold Standard and the Bretton Woods period. (And if you want to understand what a balance of payments crisis was like during that period can I recommend the excellent Business Adventures, bu John Brooks.)
There is a good reason why exchange rates don't necessarily work as one might expect: only a small portion of foreign currency flows are trade related. So, there might be interest payments on government debt, income from foreign investments (and dividends/rent to owners of UK assets), and that's before we even talk about other capital flows or speculation.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
Here's the politics. The Tories are already not exactly popular with students. Then they appoint Toby Young as Student Czar.
Top move...
Care to name a Tory who is popular with students (particularly the politically active kind?).
I often think a lot of what the Conservatives are doing is picking people with the nous to suggest ideas that may be popular with the parents of students or adolescent children, who may already be sympathetic to the Conservative Party. Toby Young would fit well in that mould.
Kenneth Clarke.
Former Education Secretary alone makes him more eminently qualified than Toby Young.
Ken's also a big fan of free speech at universities, invited Sir Oswald Mosley to give a speech to CUCA.
I have first hand experience of this. The salaries they're offering are utterly shocking.
We need people with experience to deal with Brexit, which means over the age of about 45 or 50. If the average is 31 a lot must be considerably younger, to state the obvious.
What's the big concern around Toby Young's employment. I'm sure people get jobs all the time because they know someone or some such. Is it really the biggest political topic of the day ?
I only clocked it when I logged onto Twitter today, I've only logged on two or three times over the past few days, and wouldn't have known anything about it otherwise.
As far as I can tell, his offence is that he's a Tory.
I can't imagine anyone in the real world cares.
I must admit, I enjoyed How to Lose Friends and Alienate People. He doesn't seem particularly qualified for the job, but then neither are most ministers, so I think it's all a bit meh.
I have first hand experience of this. The salaries they're offering are utterly shocking.
It's embarrassingly poor, it wouldn't be possible to live in London as a single earner with what was on offer.
The only advantage, at least according to them, was the chance to make a name for oneself, "it's a time for heroes" or something along those lines.
It's poor salaries, it is the thought of working for David Davis and his Chief of Staff of Stewart Jackson, who many PBers knows is the epitome of emollient.
Plus DExEU won't be around in 18 months time which is an arse when applying for a phone contract let alone a mortgage.
If we leave the Customs Union, every shipment of animal origin will be subject to veterinary check at the border lasting at least 30 minutes. No ifs or buts. Other produce will be subject to rules of origin compliance and paperwork. Automotive exports to the EU will be subject to 10% tariffs unless they are at least 60% EU content.
Does the 60% count under WTO rules?
Rules of origin are a huge issue. I expect the UK and the EU to sort out a trade agreement that leaves things the same as present. The big problem is with content rules on third party agreements. Say Korea has a 60% (EU + Korean) content threshold to qualify for zero tariffs and a UK assembled car currently meets that with 40% UK content and 40% rEU content. After we leave the EU that car will no longer qualify for zero tariffs. This is regardless of whether re stay in the Single Market [I am not sure about the Customs Union] and will require a Korean UK FTA even to get the 60% rule for zero tariffs. EU manufactured cars with significant UK content have the same problem. Manufacturers will want to consolidate both assembly and component manufacture in either the EU or in the UK. It's not hard to predict that they will consolidate in the EU at the expense of the UK.
I have first hand experience of this. The salaries they're offering are utterly shocking.
We need people with experience to deal with Brexit, which means over the age of about 45 or 50. If the average is 31 a lot must be considerably younger, to state the obvious.
I think you're misunderstanding The Times article
A few of the holders of top posts, including the permanent secretary, are not included [the average] because they are on secondment from other departments.
I cannot remember the last time I flew from the UK to an Irish airport (Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Kerry) when I didn't have to show my UK passport on arrival! It is not required the other way - a boarding pass is sufficient at UK airports for Republic arrivals.
Yes, Ireland requires passports for CTA travel by air. That said, IME as soon as the bored Garda who's drawn the short straw that morning sees a maroon passport cover he waves you through without actually opening the thing.
I flew to Bulgaria, and back, over Christmas. Our passports were checked both on departure and arrival, and, despite having separate queues for "All passports" and "EU/EEA passports" there was no discernible difference to waiting or processing speed. The UK border queues are far longer, but that might be down to staffing and volume as much as anything else.
It adds between about 5-15 minutes each direction, but I don't resent it. If you have bags to collect from the carousel it makes no difference to one's critical path in exiting the airport either.
France banned British beef completely following the BSE epidemic. Did it cripple the French economy?
A very good point. So, in addition to the existing well-known example that very different excise duties across the Eire/NI border don't mean there have to be border controls, we have another excellent example of how different food safety regulations didn't require border controls.
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Yep, if we essentially have regulatory convergence there will be no need for any barriers. The issue will be if we do.
Under any scenario, even if there is no deal at all, virtually all goods and agricultural products circulated in the EU will be legally saleable in the UK, and vice versa. For the tiny number of cases where they are not, then (exactly as is the case now) enforcement can be done by intelligence-led and spot checks, exactly as it is done now for booze'n'fags.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
People in the wine trade are expecting WTO tariffs in the event of no deal. That surely is not a fictitious issue?
People in the Uk will not be able to afford wine with or without tariffs - because of Brexit.
Farr's sale on today; the people of the UK should stock up.
Intel might be in deep doo-doo due to a serious security bug in many of their x86 processors. The fix for this may appreciably slow down the processor: in worst cases by up to 30%.
However, I quite like this line on the BBC's write-up:
"Semi-conductor chips are found in many of the world's computers."
I guess 'll just have to warm up the valves on my desktop PC ...
DExEU is a good opportunity to get promoted if you’re young.. Also a good way to break into more international work - which again appeals to the younger civil servants.
I have first hand experience of this. The salaries they're offering are utterly shocking.
It's embarrassingly poor, it wouldn't be possible to live in London as a single earner with what was on offer.
The only advantage, at least according to them, was the chance to make a name for oneself, "it's a time for heroes" or something along those lines.
It's poor salaries, it is the thought of working for David Davis and his Chief of Staff of Stewart Jackson, who many PBers knows is the epitome of emollient.
Plus DExEU won't be around in 18 months time which is an arse when applying for a phone contract let alone a mortgage.
Your last sentence is another fair point.
The Government should recognise that a time-limited, stressful and intense job, where you need to recruit lots of good people in the marketplace quickly, needs to be appropriately rewarded. But it won't.
They don't want to face down the inevitable headlines higher pay rates would create, or the furore from the civil service trade unions.
Comments
These days I'd have said it maximises the welfare of certain consumers in our country
If youve had 10 years of wage stagnation your welfare probably hasnt been maximised
We are happy for people to come here on holiday but (non EU and EU post Brexit) to work they must get work permits. people found working without work permits are deported and their company prosecuted.
This idea is not without merit. Banks are tightly regulated for exactly the same reason: the service they provide is fundamental to the economy
And he told me he thinks the government should regulate Google and Facebook like public utilities. “They’re too powerful. I want to make sure their data is a public trust.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/bannon-for-president-trump-kushner-ivanka
My point, clumsily expressed, was that legal systems should adhere to the systems of government for the unit of government they are in. The ECJ, as @FF43 notes, is there to standardise things. But what the EU appears to be proposing is to give it a new role providing enforceable legal oversight over people living in a foreign jurisdiction so they can live under a different set of laws from their immediate neighbours. Which is a total nonsense.
If people can't see that this won't work, I'm quite worried.
One big Brexit mistake was making DExEU a seperate department competing with the FCO. It would have been better to have it under that umbrella.
Maybe there'll be opportunities for much more lucrative VAT fraud. Will Irish co.s have to charge VAT on cross-border supplies to N.I or vice versa? Today cross-border supplies are charged VAT at 0% if the buyer gives the seller his VAT number.
Goods retailed outside the EU are VAT-free. Retailers selling to a customer in another member state must usually charge standard rate VAT:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-notice-70114-food
My recent experience of DWP made it look a model of efficiency compared to HMRC. How will HMRC cope, given that it's a shambles already?
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/09/15/just_how_are_hmrcs_it_systems_going_to_cope_with_brexit/
Imagine the backlash vs French goods if they slap our beef etc with a tariff - will be brand crippling.
According to Boris anyway.
What a relief to know this. I will suggest to my brother in law that he practises being caustically witty when he applies to become a judge.
This version of leaving wasn't really put forward in the main during the referendum, Dan Hannan's small hors d'oeuvre to Farage's anti-immigration feast.
I know it's cold at the moment, but I didn't expect this...
First polar bear born in the UK for 25 years
https://news.sky.com/story/first-polar-bear-born-in-the-uk-for-25-years-11194311
Maybe internet operators should not just be regulated but also blocked from censoring the messages particular customers see and thereby creating left- and right-wing 'echo chambers'. I can't follow why Facebook, Google, etc surround people who are already being criticised as 'snowflakes' by a further comfort blanket.
I did find it interesting in the last thread that there was a feeling that it was impossible for Quangos to have open appointments that would not be a feast for the HR and legal sharks. If we have to obey these equality laws, why should government be exempt?
They should not be above the law, and all these posts advertised and appointed openly, and where senior, ratified by the appropriate Commons committee. Either we are serious about opening up government to the meritocracy, or we should scrap the pretence.
@TGOHF wants passport controls.
I cannot remember the last time I flew from the UK to an Irish airport (Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Kerry) when I didn't have to show my UK passport on arrival! It is not required the other way - a boarding pass is sufficient at UK airports for Republic arrivals.
Meanwhile the 0.5+T $ titans across the pond grow by swallowing our brightest and best companies whole (Google buying Deepmind for less than a billion looks like the steal of the century for instance)...
Who cares what Cameron, Gove, Leadsom, Stuart, Johnson and Farage said about leaving the single market during the referendum campaign - apparently everyone was listening to Hannan and assumed leaving the EU meant staying in the single market and paid no attention to the leaders of the campaigns who were on telly daily. I doubt 98 per cent of voters have any idea who Mr Hannan is - yet apparently his opinions on the matter have achieved zen like status with the hardcore remainers.
Short run is the period before which full adaptation to the changes has taken place.
If demand is reduced by fewer people having jobs ...
Irrelevant. As I explained above, the level of aggregate demand is what determines employment. You have inverted cause and effect.
Why would any manufacturer, for example, locate in the UK if there were no barriers to importing into this country but significant ones to exporting from it?
They would do so because it is profitable. The exchange rate will have made it so.
Why would any country want to do a trade deal ...
They wouldn’t. A trade deal is not needed.
https://twitter.com/jdiamond1/status/948620109408546817
There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU. After we vote to leave we will stay in this zone.
It would be nice to see people in public life thinking before they speak or Twitter. Thought before speech used to be the mark of an adult. Now the first barely sensible “thought” gets passed on.
Like Orwell’s duckspeak, it is speech issued from the larynx - or fingers - without involving the higher brain centres at all.
I am not indulgent of someone who is a journalist who issues provocative tweets precisely to get attention then later claims that he should be forgiven because at the age of 40 or whatever he was behaving like a teenager. He knew what he was doing. He liked the notoriety. Very different from someone behaving like an arse at 18 and then growing up.
Top move...
Quite why anyone thinks minor differences in regulations (especially if there are no tariffs) would require physical border controls in Ireland is a complete mystery to me.
Must be reading old tweets.
“This is bigger than I ever dreamed of,” he told Ailes a week before the election. “I don’t think about losing, because it isn’t losing. We’ve totally won.”
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/michael-wolff-fire-and-fury-book-donald-trump.html
I often think a lot of what the Conservatives are doing is picking people with the nous to suggest ideas that may be popular with the parents of students or adolescent children, who may already be sympathetic to the Conservative Party. Toby Young would fit well in that mould.
It's an entirely fictitious issue, made up by people who want to magnify difficulties. Heaven knows there are enough real difficulties, I really don't know why they feel the need to invent spurious ones. Well, I do, of course.
She has the full package according to Tory sources apparently - intellect, charm and looks!
http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/11/tory-bosses-hoping-persuade-im-celebrity-winner-georgia-toffolo-run-next-election-7148592/
Currently there are no tariffs or formal non-tariff barriers on exports to and imports from the EU. There are tariffs and NTBs on imports and exports to third countries but these are mitigated by a raft of preferential trade agreements with those countries. EU tariffs and NTBs are generally average to low by international standards.
If we don't have a meaningful PTA with the EU (as implied by a unilateral removal of import tariffs) we will see barriers go up and trade significantly reduce on EU exports. EU imports are unaffected as we have no barriers anyway. Imports from non-EU countries are improved as we remove EU import barriers. Exports to non-EU countries depend on the degree to which they are prepared to roll over existing agreements with the EU. The chances are that they won't entirely and not necessarily immediately. In summary exports to the EU will reduce very substantially, exports to non-EU countries will reduce somewhat, imports from the EU are unaffected and imports from non-EU countries will increase somewhat.
If we have a preferential trade agreement with the EU they will probably insist on regulatory alignment. In summary exports to the EU will reduce somewhat, exports to non-EU countries will reduce somewhat, imports from the EU will reduce somewhat and imports from non-EU countries will be unaffected. If we remain in the EU Customs Union the reduction in EU exports and imports will be substantially mitigated, as will exports of services in particular if we remain in the Single Market.
Unilateral elimination of import barriers will drastically weaken producer and consumer protections for domestic goods. Leaving the SM and CU will negatively affect investment.
Those on the Leave side might not have explained that they were planning to join ASEAN instead but people should have known what they were voting for.
I cannot remember the last time I flew from the UK to an Irish airport (Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Kerry) when I didn't have to show my UK passport on arrival! It is not required the other way - a boarding pass is sufficient at UK airports for Republic arrivals.
Yes, Ireland requires passports for CTA travel by air. That said, IME as soon as the bored Garda who's drawn the short straw that morning sees a maroon passport cover he waves you through without actually opening the thing.
One ambiguously positive outcome of the EU referendum and its aftermath (for me, at least) is that it brought me much closer to our Labour posters, and the concerns of traditional Labour voters.
It also reports that "Some ambulance services have EVEN started asking 999 callers with less serious problems to make their own way to hospital so they can prioritise the most life-threatening calls."
Why the use of the word "even", implying this is an unreasonable request?
Does the 60% count under WTO rules?
People in the Uk will not be able to afford wine with or without tariffs - because of Brexit.
One of the things that brought Boris round to Leave, strongly influenced by his wife, was their believe the ECJ had started to resort to judicial activism in further pursuing federalisation.
As far as I can tell, his offence is that he's a Tory.
I can't imagine anyone in the real world cares.
I have first hand experience of this. The salaries they're offering are utterly shocking.
I imagine they're upset because, together with Jo Johnson's move on free speech on campuses, they think it might be the thin-end of the wedge.
The only advantage, at least according to them, was the chance to make a name for oneself, "it's a time for heroes" or something along those lines.
It took us years to get them down by six weeks, its pretty depressing for all concerned. One of the most depressing things about working in the NHS is seeing years of effort going down the drain.
Going further back in time, current account and trade deficits were much more modest during both the Gold Standard and the Bretton Woods period. (And if you want to understand what a balance of payments crisis was like during that period can I recommend the excellent Business Adventures, bu John Brooks.)
There is a good reason why exchange rates don't necessarily work as one might expect: only a small portion of foreign currency flows are trade related. So, there might be interest payments on government debt, income from foreign investments (and dividends/rent to owners of UK assets), and that's before we even talk about other capital flows or speculation.
Former Education Secretary alone makes him more eminently qualified than Toby Young.
Ken's also a big fan of free speech at universities, invited Sir Oswald Mosley to give a speech to CUCA.
Plus DExEU won't be around in 18 months time which is an arse when applying for a phone contract let alone a mortgage.
More information: http://europe.autonews.com/article/20171127/ANE/171129783/automakers-fear-rules-of-origin-brexit-hit
A few of the holders of top posts, including the permanent secretary, are not included [the average] because they are on secondment from other departments.
Yes, Ireland requires passports for CTA travel by air. That said, IME as soon as the bored Garda who's drawn the short straw that morning sees a maroon passport cover he waves you through without actually opening the thing.
I flew to Bulgaria, and back, over Christmas. Our passports were checked both on departure and arrival, and, despite having separate queues for "All passports" and "EU/EEA passports" there was no discernible difference to waiting or processing speed. The UK border queues are far longer, but that might be down to staffing and volume as much as anything else.
It adds between about 5-15 minutes each direction, but I don't resent it. If you have bags to collect from the carousel it makes no difference to one's critical path in exiting the airport either.
Intel might be in deep doo-doo due to a serious security bug in many of their x86 processors. The fix for this may appreciably slow down the processor: in worst cases by up to 30%.
However, I quite like this line on the BBC's write-up:
"Semi-conductor chips are found in many of the world's computers."
I guess 'll just have to warm up the valves on my desktop PC ...
Also a good way to break into more international work - which again appeals to the younger civil servants.
Edit - DECC was a young dept when set up too...
The Government should recognise that a time-limited, stressful and intense job, where you need to recruit lots of good people in the marketplace quickly, needs to be appropriately rewarded. But it won't.
They don't want to face down the inevitable headlines higher pay rates would create, or the furore from the civil service trade unions.