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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication – the Brexit backing Spectator
A Speccie headline I'd though we would never see. "Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum" https://t.co/QzNDjycoeN
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Is there something specific, or just a general dislike of being told what to do by a non-Brit? Is it about preserving a sense of Britishness, or a fear that we'd be impoverished by bureaucracy and socialist giveaways? A worry that NATO would collapse, or that handwringing and indecision in the EU would give Putin and Erdogan free reign? Etc, etc.
Genuinely curious as to the answers, from remainers and leavers alike.
I want the UK to remain an independent country (both de jure, and de facto) for the long-term.
Very interesting! I wonder if this type of voting system has a name?
Ref#2 would be more a way for Labour to escape from its self-impaling on the fence of Brexit, than for the Tories to heal their enduring divisions. The latter will only be resolved when one wing of the party or the other leaves for more fertile pastures.
Just think of how many threads I’ll be able to do on that on PB.
This is the latest in a series of posts where OGH is led by his heart not his head.
Bad analogy.
1) UK =/= Bangladesh, Mexico, Canada, South Korea or Japan.
2) EU =/= USA, China or India
A typical EU-rocrat ploy to get us to stay in the EU without a majority of the electorate signing up to that. It's what passes for democracy in the EU....
I simply listed a few mainly successful countries that have no plans to do so.
Ladbrokes is 5/1 on Another UK EU Referendum before end 2019
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2927309
To be fair, although Mike mentions Clegg that is not who wrote the article nor who is quoted. The point is well made that there is an increase in support for a confirmatory referendum even amongst some who support Brexit.
Personally I would only support one if the basis were take it or leave it on a deal. The question of reversing Brexit should certainly not be entertained before we have even left
There just isn't time.
Exactly the same criticism they made of Leave prior to the referendum.
I don't want to live in a chastened or eunuch country run by Europhiles and the Left.
Realistically, it could only be the government who took that action but the Tories aren't going to do that because it would expose all the divisions without providing an effective means of healing them - while simultaneously hugely weakening an already weak hand in negotiations: why would the EU concede anything to make Brexit easier in such circumstances?
Alternatively, if it's a Labour government offering this, you have to explain how that comes about in the next 12 months, and how Corbyn then addresses the Brexit process.
There are theoretical ways in which we get EURef2 but I don't see any of them as being at all likely in the real world.
The public are bored of the Brexit process - they don't want another campaign rehashing the same old baloney.
I understand your point of view, but I think you're overly angry about it.
That vortex article was very good btw. Kind of ironic I read that only after I posted a few angry posts of my own :-/
Particularly now the true nature of the EU has been exposed, how deep the tentacles have dug and of course Macron and Schultz's plan for a superstate.
Wembley will host seven games at Euro 2020 after Brussels lost the right to host matches for the tournament.
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/42270759
The issue is whether or not I wish to be governed by Britons and British institutions in the UK or by pan-Europeans and EU institutions in a federal Europe.
It goes down to the absolute fundamentals of social identity and self-determination.
Until Leavers confront the nature of the campaign that they fought and its consequences, there's not much prospect of Britain heading in a positive direction.
Sounds like leave is going to need a bigger bus.
That was indeed an excellent and thoughtful speech by Boris. The point about who the "we" is that is going to defeat terrorism is particularly important. It is also an excellent and destructive demolition of the Corbyn world view where everything that happens is the fault of the west and anyone who opposes the west must surely be in the right.
Thanks for the link.
all leavers into UKIP supporters. Certainly some would go that way but I would be surprised if it were more than 10-15% of the electorate. If Brexit crashes in flames bringing down the government, May, and perhaps the Tory Party as well it will be dead as a policy option. Having seen what it has done to this government no future one will want to go down the same road.
The EU cannot and will not give us anything near the current access we have because then every member state knows if they throw a similar wobbly to us, they can have a little bit of pain to opt out of stuff they don't like.
The EU cannot have members or half members that accept free movement and others that don't. They cannot have members or half members that have the benefits of the SM and CU and some that don't. But the general public and the politicians do not wan't to live in the world where Britain is significantly worse off for leaving the EU. The options are staying and accepting the rules and the economic benefits for many that comes with, or leaving and accepting that many will be worse off economically. The philosophical issue of sovereignty is important (although why stop a independence from the EU; Mercians for Mercian independence, and so on) but that is not the argument the Government are making. They're trying to sell Brexit as an economic good, and that isn't true.
HALLELUJAH!
As a result of Leavers' failure to seek to build a consensus, the chances of the referendum not being ultimately implemented must be higher now than they have been at any point since 24 June 2016.
I hear you.
What pisses me off is the pompous way you engage or talk down to Leavers on this forum. I criticised the Leave campaign as "crap" during the campaign, and only delivered leaflets I was comfortable delivering. I also made the case in my own way. One doesn't get to call all the shots. And, no, I wasn't going to abandon the Leave campaign over it, even if you thought I should, and think less of me for not doing so, because I thought the stakes were too high.
Anyway, quislings/idiots/traitors/morons.. none of it aides dialogue, does it?
Personally, you just wind me up. When I'd far rather just talk to you.
At least the quote button works again!
Edit: Stipulations include “that the UK continues to guarantee fundamental human rights as laid down in the European Convention of Human Rights” as well as other demands to automatically implement new EU laws created after 2019, and a ban on “opt-outs” from Brexit for Britain’s car-making and financial services industries.
Cup of cold sick comes to mind.
In some respects, if you believe that is the outcome, you have resigned yourself to it anyway. The entire point of the EU project is to renders the nation state obsolete - but even if we escape it you believe that the same outcome will occur.
If you really believe that in the modern world there is no such thing as the viable nation state, then that paints a particular view of the world which would support voluntarily giving up nationhood to a higher body , rather than having it wrested from us by the winds of change.
All very possible
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/06/britain-almost-has-fight-way-eu-colonial-empire/
But until Leavers start taking responsibility for the way in which it was won and working through the consequences of that, the country will continue to go backwards.
Without a deal she says they are F'KD
But anyway, has anyone suggested we will leave the ECHR? What's that got to do with the EU?
It all comes down to how you view a demos and what such a demos is for. For me, identity is a very fluid thing. I am English in the UK, I am British in Europe and Asia, I am European in the US. When it comes down to it, I feel I have enough in common with other Europeans in terms of ideals and outlooks that sharing an institutional and economic framework with them as a way of improving living standards and quality of life is not a huge problem for me. That will not stop me being or feeling English, British or European.
I accept absolutely that others may disagree.
I wish the referendum had been about that.
I've been mentioning this for a while. Backed it at 6.5 (quite surprised the odds haven't shortened more, to be honest) a few weeks ago.
It's easy to see why he might inspire Brexiteers:
Sukarno himself was contemptuous of macroeconomics, and was unable and unwilling to provide practical solutions to the poor economic condition of the country. Instead, Sukarno produced more ideological conceptions such as Trisakti: political sovereignty, economic self-sufficiency, and cultural independence. He advocated Indonesians to be "standing on their own feet" (berdikari) and reach economic self-sufficiency, free from foreign influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukarno
Without simply stating it as a truism then why can't that be the case?
I don't think that will happen though, even, for example, if Marine Le Pen had won and France had tried to leave, the legal order of the EU would have weathered the storm and it would have been a temporary aberration, like Brexit.
I feel English in the UK but I feel more at home in Canada or Australia than I do on the continent. They have the same culture, same language etc which isn't the case on the continent which always feels like being in a foreign country.
The Aussies even drive on the correct side of the road!
We might not even know what the deal is by the start of 2019.
I am not bothered whether my democratic representatives are British, so much as whether they have the same aspirations as me. I would rather be represented by competent European Social Democrats than incompetent British Nationalists.
Admittedly there's a little local difficulty with the Irish, but when in the last 500 years has there not been? They are only arguing about semantics in respect of what happens if we don't agree a trade deal, and I'm sure some civil servant will be able to come up with some synonym for 'regulatory alignment' which doesn't scare the DUP horses.
I'm more optimistic about the overall picture than I have been at any time since the referendum. I seem to be in a minority of one in that, but 'Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets'.
https://order-order.com/2017/12/07/osborne-doesnt-rule-return-parliament/
Keeping the car running (parked in the disabled bay) for 2022.
Most Leavers I know were embarrassed by the Farage poster, weren't entirely aware Turkey was being duped by both the UK & the EU and not about to join, and got tired of explaining that of course we couldn't guarantee £350m to the NHS - that would depend entirely on the government of the day - and ok.. it's the gross figure.
Online I saw all of the above stories spread far more effectively by the good, honest, caring Remainers, than by evil, racist Leavers.
Is that ironic?
Pre-WWI the British Empire had a fifth of global GDP (the UK was about 10% of global GDP). In 2017 the entire EU put together is closer to 15% of GDP only and rapidly shrinking. The entire EU combined is less significant to the world than the British Empire alone was pre-WWI.
Quite frankly you're too stuck in history and too Euro-centric in your views. What "spheres of influence" do any European nations have now?
""I used to be a bit of an amateur chief whip, and I don't think they've got the votes (for a hard Brexit)".
The key turning point was agreeing on the accounts. Once that was done the EU had every reason to want a deal. A deal is already worth it for them to avoid disruption with what will become post-Brexit their largest export market. Now though there's a further 50 billion reasons to make sure they get it.
Meanwhile, most in the UK feel strongly about national independence and have a level of trust in British institutions that they would never dream of countenancing a higher authority that has supreme governance over us.
I recognise identity can be multi-layered, of course, but this is about very strong emotions. On both sides.
They matter.
Hypothetically I suppose it's an interesting question if some major countries within the EU decided to merge their sovereignty fully and become one, and that would indeed pose an existential threat to the EU, but this doesn't seem remotely plausible.
I want someone governing who socially identifies as a fellow citizen of this country.
That also has the convenience of ruling Corbyn out. But wouldn't, for example, eliminate someone like Ed Balls.
I'd rather be Canadian than American.
JRM and Jezza.