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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court mov

SystemSystem Posts: 12,258
edited October 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court moves start against former campaign chief

The biggest current political betting markets on whether Trump is going to survive and him being there at the end of 2020 is looking a touch less likely with his campaign boss, Paul Manafort, due to make a first appearance later today.

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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited October 2017
    1

    A "will Trump outlast May" market would be interesting. All those words from the end of Major's time in office like "hapless" and "beleaguered" are suggesting themselves as descriptors of May.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Four-time Olympic champion Mo Farah has split from coach Alberto Salazar and will return to Britain.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited October 2017
    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    Lock him up!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Four-time Olympic champion Mo Farah has split from coach Alberto Salazar and will return to Britain.

    I thought Farah had retired?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,981
    Roger said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Four-time Olympic champion Mo Farah has split from coach Alberto Salazar and will return to Britain.

    I thought Farah had retired?
    Only from track racing. He's still running marathons and half-marathons.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,072
    Sad.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Roger said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Four-time Olympic champion Mo Farah has split from coach Alberto Salazar and will return to Britain.

    I thought Farah had retired?
    The target is now Marathons and other long distance races. Need a different type of coach from middle distance.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    Considering his record, too many people suspect that it is only a matter of time....Bad!
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Ishmael_Z said:

    1

    A "will Trump outlast May" market would be interesting. All those words from the end of Major's time in office like "hapless" and "beleaguered" are suggesting themselves as descriptors of May.

    +1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    edited October 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,981
    On topic, no-one ever got rich betting against Trump.

    Questions:

    1. What are the chances that he will be impeached and if so, will he be convicted?
    2. What are the chances of him resigning?
    3. What are the chances of him dying or being forced out through illness?

    Of the three, 1 and 2 are connected (indeed, as with Nixon, (2) is essentially a different mechanism to (1), as to resign would be to admit himself a failure, which is something he will surely never do, unless it is crystal clear that he was going down, in which case he would resign and play the victim of an establishment closing ranks.

    To take illness or death, we shouldn't ignore the possibility - he is in his 70s, overweight and in a highly stressful job - but while I'm not an actuary, I wouldn't have though the chances to be much more than low to mid single figures.

    Which leaves politics. Is there a smoking gun to any aspect of his behaviour (not just Russia), and if so, does the DC politics make it worth the while for him to be turfed out - which in essence means will the Republicans play ball?

    Trump undoubtedly plays politics differently from anyone else in the game but that works both ways. Career politicians are wary of that which they don't fully understand, particularly when it's been proven to be successful (and vindictive). While Trump doesn't have many friends on the Hill, nor will he have many on his own side willing to raise their flag against him so irrevocably. Yet.

    There's also the 2020 election campaign itself to factor in. Once we get to autumn 2019, I would expect Republicans to refuse to co-operate with impeachment hearings on the argument that 'the people should decide'. Republican challengers would come forward in primaries and the GOP would argue that it is better for them to decide whether he's guilty of a high crime or misdemeanor than a self-interested Senate.

    Will he get to autumn 2019 (which is only two years away)? My guess is that it's more likely than not. There's certainly a good chance that not only will he have done something foolish enough to merit impeachment but also that Republicans in Congress will decide it politically worthwhile to go the distance on it. But I wouldn't make it shorter than 3/1.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    I hear some publicity shy bookies are suggesting thousands of bookies shops would be closed. GASP.

    Up there in the stakes of self awareness.

    People don't like bookies cluttering the high st...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    The interesting thing about the Mueller announcements is how carefully calculated they seem to be.

    Trump, having distanced himself from Manafort et al could hardly justify pardoning someone charged with money laundering $75m - a criminal case which can hardly be classed as a political witch hunt (and a case which could also be pressed at state level, and thus pardon proof).
    And Papadopoulos has already pled guilty - again, a pardon would look unconscionable; an effective admission of complicity.

    At the same time the message to other possible participants is clear - come clean like Papadopoulos, and we'll do a deal; hold out like Manafort, and you could be looking at thirty years....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Mortimer said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    I hear some publicity shy bookies are suggesting thousands of bookies shops would be closed. GASP.

    Up there in the stakes of self awareness.

    People don't like bookies cluttering the high st...
    Yes, needs more room for tattoo and vaping shops, such is the dire state of a lot of towns.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, no-one ever got rich betting against Trump.

    Questions:

    1. What are the chances that he will be impeached and if so, will he be convicted?
    2. What are the chances of him resigning?
    3. What are the chances of him dying or being forced out through illness?

    Of the three, 1 and 2 are connected (indeed, as with Nixon, (2) is essentially a different mechanism to (1), as to resign would be to admit himself a failure, which is something he will surely never do, unless it is crystal clear that he was going down, in which case he would resign and play the victim of an establishment closing ranks.

    To take illness or death, we shouldn't ignore the possibility - he is in his 70s, overweight and in a highly stressful job - but while I'm not an actuary, I wouldn't have though the chances to be much more than low to mid single figures.

    Which leaves politics. Is there a smoking gun to any aspect of his behaviour (not just Russia), and if so, does the DC politics make it worth the while for him to be turfed out - which in essence means will the Republicans play ball?

    Trump undoubtedly plays politics differently from anyone else in the game but that works both ways. Career politicians are wary of that which they don't fully understand, particularly when it's been proven to be successful (and vindictive). While Trump doesn't have many friends on the Hill, nor will he have many on his own side willing to raise their flag against him so irrevocably. Yet.

    There's also the 2020 election campaign itself to factor in. Once we get to autumn 2019, I would expect Republicans to refuse to co-operate with impeachment hearings on the argument that 'the people should decide'. Republican challengers would come forward in primaries and the GOP would argue that it is better for them to decide whether he's guilty of a high crime or misdemeanor than a self-interested Senate.

    Will he get to autumn 2019 (which is only two years away)? My guess is that it's more likely than not. There's certainly a good chance that not only will he have done something foolish enough to merit impeachment but also that Republicans in Congress will decide it politically worthwhile to go the distance on it. But I wouldn't make it shorter than 3/1.

    Don't forget the mid-terms. If it looks like Trump will be a significant drag on the GOP, or if he actually turns out to be, that uneasy truce will sour pretty quickly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    Stereotomy said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, no-one ever got rich betting against Trump.

    Questions:

    1. What are the chances that he will be impeached and if so, will he be convicted?
    2. What are the chances of him resigning?
    3. What are the chances of him dying or being forced out through illness?

    Of the three, 1 and 2 are connected (indeed, as with Nixon, (2) is essentially a different mechanism to (1), as to resign would be to admit himself a failure, which is something he will surely never do, unless it is crystal clear that he was going down, in which case he would resign and play the victim of an establishment closing ranks.

    SNIP...

    Will he get to autumn 2019 (which is only two years away)? My guess is that it's more likely than not. There's certainly a good chance that not only will he have done something foolish enough to merit impeachment but also that Republicans in Congress will decide it politically worthwhile to go the distance on it. But I wouldn't make it shorter than 3/1.

    Don't forget the mid-terms. If it looks like Trump will be a significant drag on the GOP, or if he actually turns out to be, that uneasy truce will sour pretty quickly.
    And a change of control in the Senate (just about possible) would see the intensification of any investigations.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,720
    Nigelb said:

    The interesting thing about the Mueller announcements is how carefully calculated they seem to be.

    Trump, having distanced himself from Manafort et al could hardly justify pardoning someone charged with money laundering $75m - a criminal case which can hardly be classed as a political witch hunt (and a case which could also be pressed at state level, and thus pardon proof).
    And Papadopoulos has already pled guilty - again, a pardon would look unconscionable; an effective admission of complicity.

    At the same time the message to other possible participants is clear - come clean like Papadopoulos, and we'll do a deal; hold out like Manafort, and you could be looking at thirty years....

    I do find plea-bargaining a detestable system. If I were innocent, but offered a choice of a couple of years in a comfy jail, as opposed to 20 years in a hell hole if found guilty, I'd choose the former.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    I thought that Spacey denied any memory of an incident, but am not following very closely.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    I thought that Spacey denied any memory of an incident, but am not following very closely.
    He's apologised.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763
    Oh dear, who will NK blame?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,072
    Mr. Jonathan, that assumes both that the report's accurate and that it will be acknowledged by North Korea at all.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,777
    Slackbladder said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    I hear some publicity shy bookies are suggesting thousands of bookies shops would be closed. GASP.

    Up there in the stakes of self awareness.

    People don't like bookies cluttering the high st...
    Yes, needs more room for tattoo and vaping shops, such is the dire state of a lot of towns.
    such is the dire state of the economy with few people having spare cash.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    I thought that Spacey denied any memory of an incident, but am not following very closely.
    He's apologised.
    But said that he doesn't remember it. He's given an unreserved apology for what would be inappropriate behaviour even if he doesn't remember it - he's simply taking for granted what the other guy has said and not calling him a liar.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    I hear some publicity shy bookies are suggesting thousands of bookies shops would be closed. GASP.

    Up there in the stakes of self awareness.

    People don't like bookies cluttering the high st...
    Yes, needs more room for tattoo and vaping shops, such is the dire state of a lot of towns.
    such is the dire state of the economy with few people having spare cash.
    People seem to have plenty of spare cash to spend on tattoos, vaping and gambling though. Those aren't charity shops.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    Philip_Thompson said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    I thought that Spacey denied any memory of an incident, but am not following very closely.
    He's apologised.
    But said that he doesn't remember it. He's given an unreserved apology for what would be inappropriate behaviour even if he doesn't remember it - he's simply taking for granted what the other guy has said and not calling him a liar.
    Then he's very silly to apologise. My guess is he's apologising because he knows it may well be true.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,720
    FPT Dr. Fox what struck me about your numbers is how tenuous the link between sub-regional GDP and quality of life is. Inner London is, by some measure, the richest place in the EU, but divided between a large minority of super-rich, and a much larger number of poor, with few in between. The East Midlands, with its much lower GDP per head, has many more middle class, and skilled working class inhabitants, who can afford houses.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,777
    On topic - A very long and very relevant twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924988111880417280
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    Does the tape not render an admission superfluous?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited October 2017
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    Manafort has been a Republican operative since the mid 1970s. He worked for Ford, Reagan, George H W Bush and Bob Dole on their campaigns and worked in the WH under Reagan. He was brought into Trumps campaign because of his experience in delegate management and was then campaign manager for barely seven weeks before being fired. He seemingly had little if any connection to Trump before.

    If the alleged dodgy dealings relate to periods before he joined the Trump campaign through using his old and extensive connections over many presidencies and Republican campaigns it may be a stretch to link it to the Trump campaign or him directly.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,879
    tlg86 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tlg86 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    I thought that Spacey denied any memory of an incident, but am not following very closely.
    He's apologised.
    But said that he doesn't remember it. He's given an unreserved apology for what would be inappropriate behaviour even if he doesn't remember it - he's simply taking for granted what the other guy has said and not calling him a liar.
    Then he's very silly to apologise. My guess is he's apologising because he knows it may well be true.
    No. he’s not silly. He’s defused the situation. If he hadn’t followed it up with gay business it’d be all over, if not by now, by Thursday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    That whole tweet thread convinced me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    I don't recall Coulson facing 30 years...
    This is the end of a thread... and Mueller will keep pulling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,720
    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    Weinstein has only so far admitted he's a sex addict, now apparently cured.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,981
    Stereotomy said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, no-one ever got rich betting against Trump.

    ...

    Which leaves politics. Is there a smoking gun to any aspect of his behaviour (not just Russia), and if so, does the DC politics make it worth the while for him to be turfed out - which in essence means will the Republicans play ball?

    Trump undoubtedly plays politics differently from anyone else in the game but that works both ways. Career politicians are wary of that which they don't fully understand, particularly when it's been proven to be successful (and vindictive). While Trump doesn't have many friends on the Hill, nor will he have many on his own side willing to raise their flag against him so irrevocably. Yet.

    There's also the 2020 election campaign itself to factor in. Once we get to autumn 2019, I would expect Republicans to refuse to co-operate with impeachment hearings on the argument that 'the people should decide'. Republican challengers would come forward in primaries and the GOP would argue that it is better for them to decide whether he's guilty of a high crime or misdemeanor than a self-interested Senate.

    Will he get to autumn 2019 (which is only two years away)? My guess is that it's more likely than not. There's certainly a good chance that not only will he have done something foolish enough to merit impeachment but also that Republicans in Congress will decide it politically worthwhile to go the distance on it. But I wouldn't make it shorter than 3/1.

    Don't forget the mid-terms. If it looks like Trump will be a significant drag on the GOP, or if he actually turns out to be, that uneasy truce will sour pretty quickly.
    If he turns out to be (i.e. if the elections have already happened), then it's too late. There probably would be less disinclination to prevent an impeachment but I think the bigger political consequence would be the desire to challenge him in the primaries, which getting involved in impeachment hearings would complicate unless there was a cast-iron case (which there isn't as yet).

    I agree that if things go badly for Trump in the first half of next year, that does provide an incentive for congressional Republicans to distance themselves. It's a pretty narrow time-frame though, which is why I'd make the odds a lot longer than the bookies and markets are offering.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Roger said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    During the current Spacey/Weinstein debacle isn't it likely that the several ladies who claimed inappropriate behaviour with Trump plus his recorded fannygate episode will be revisited?

    Only if something new and illegal comes out.
    I'm not sure. These forest fires are pretty unpredictable
    The issue with Spacey and Weinstein is that they've admitted guilt (if that's the right word). Trump hasn't.
    Weinstein has only so far admitted he's a sex addict, now apparently cured.
    That's why I said if guilt is the right word.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited October 2017
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    I don't recall Coulson facing 30 years...
    This is the end of a thread... and Mueller will keep pulling.
    If you employ someone who turns out to have a dodgy past they didn't declare and no one was aware of perhaps that's poor judgement or lack of research - but it doesn't make Cameron or Trump or any other employer guilty of the crime. I am fine with proved guilt - but guilt by association? Trump has employed thousands of people over the years - Manafort had quite a short time horizon with him of a couple of months and was not a long standing associate or employee. And of course Trump sacked him - which of course led to Kellyanne Conway coming in.

    Trump or his team may be subject to indictments or charges on other issues - who can say but this Manafort stuff relates to the period before he ever worked for Trump. If you unknowingly employ a murderer - that doesnt make you a murderer too?! Let's deal with facts - not just guilt by association because people want Trump out of office.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    If they cut how much I can bet, how am I going to win back all my losses?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    brendan16 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    I don't recall Coulson facing 30 years...
    This is the end of a thread... and Mueller will keep pulling.
    If you employ someone who turns out to have a dodgy past they didn't declare and no one was aware of perhaps that's poor judgement or lack of research - but it doesn't make Cameron or Trump or any other employer guilty of the crime. I am fine with proved guilt - but guilt by association? Trump has employed thousands of people over the years - Manafort had quite a short time horizon with of a couple of months and was not a long standing associate or employee. And of course Trump sacked him - which of course led to Kellyanne Conway coming in.
    And Papodopoulos ?

    This is not the endgame - Mueller is barely getting started...
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/robert-mueller-indictments-russia/544409/
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Slackbladder said:

    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
    According to Chinese Geophysicist Wen Lianxing, the mountain is in danger of imminent collapse if further bomb tests are carried out, and there have been significant landslides in the area of the tests.

    With anything that comes out of China of course you have to take the political angle into consideration. However the head of their own nuclear research team suggested a 'major environmental disaster' spreading toxicity 'across the entire hemisphere'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,628
    Kaboom
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,879
    Slackbladder said:

    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
    Can’t see a report anywhere else. So far, anyway.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    OldKingCole said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
    Can’t see a report anywhere else. So far, anyway.
    It's in the Express - but I can't see much yet outside the UK media.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/873443/north-korea-nuclear-accident-Punggye-ri-tunnel-collapse-kim-jong-un
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,505
    TonyE said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
    According to Chinese Geophysicist Wen Lianxing, the mountain is in danger of imminent collapse if further bomb tests are carried out, and there have been significant landslides in the area of the tests.

    With anything that comes out of China of course you have to take the political angle into consideration. However the head of their own nuclear research team suggested a 'major environmental disaster' spreading toxicity 'across the entire hemisphere'.
    Crikey. That is scary.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    edited October 2017
    I'm with David Herdson on this, I think it is unlikely that Trump resigns/is impeached. If he is to go this term, I would reckon it would likely be because of a major health issue (it doesn't have to be death, merely something serious) given the nature of the job and his level of physical fitness. (I'd guess that's a 20-25% chance.)

    However, I would be very surprised if Donald Trump didn't face a primary challenger (or two). And history suggests that incumbent Presidents that face serious challenges for the nomination (George HW Bush, Carter, Ford) don't tend to get re-elected. It's not a cast iron rule (Clinton was challenged by Lyndon LaRouche... who was in prison at the time), but it is suggestive. My money is on him not running again in 2020.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Stereotomy said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, no-one ever got rich betting against Trump.

    Questions:

    1. What are the chances that he will be impeached and if so, will he be convicted?
    2. What are the chances of him resigning?
    3. What are the chances of him dying or being forced out through illness?

    Of the three, 1 and 2 are connected (indeed, as with Nixon, (2) is essentially a different mechanism to (1), as to resign would be to admit himself a failure, which is something he will surely never do, unless it is crystal clear that he was going down, in which case he would resign and play the victim of an establishment closing ranks.

    SNIP...

    Will he get to autumn 2019 (which is only two years away)? My guess is that it's more likely than not. There's certainly a good chance that not only will he have done something foolish enough to merit impeachment but also that Republicans in Congress will decide it politically worthwhile to go the distance on it. But I wouldn't make it shorter than 3/1.

    Don't forget the mid-terms. If it looks like Trump will be a significant drag on the GOP, or if he actually turns out to be, that uneasy truce will sour pretty quickly.
    And a change of control in the Senate (just about possible) would see the intensification of any investigations.
    Given the map I'm considering the Dems not losing any seats in the senate as an achievement in 2018.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    brendan16 said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    I don't recall Coulson facing 30 years...
    This is the end of a thread... and Mueller will keep pulling.
    If you employ someone who turns out to have a dodgy past they didn't declare and no one was aware of perhaps that's poor judgement or lack of research - but it doesn't make Cameron or Trump or any other employer guilty of the crime. I am fine with proved guilt - but guilt by association? Trump has employed thousands of people over the years - Manafort had quite a short time horizon with him of a couple of months and was not a long standing associate or employee. And of course Trump sacked him - which of course led to Kellyanne Conway coming in.

    Trump or his team may be subject to indictments or charges on other issues - who can say but this Manafort stuff relates to the period before he ever worked for Trump. If you unknowingly employ a murderer - that doesnt make you a murderer too?! Let's deal with facts - not just guilt by association because people want Trump out of office.
    And of course you omit Rick Gates, also indicted...
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/despite-russia-controversy-paul-manaforts-partner-is-still-lurking-around-the-white-house
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    We've got an email trail from George showing collusion with the upper echelons of the Trump campaign.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    As an aside, could the Republicans lose the Alabama Senate race in December? It seems almost inconceivable, but the polls show the Republican up 6-8%, and if it's low turnout, it's just possible that the Dems grab it.

    Are there odds anywhere?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,350
    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    It's a government review that *could* advise dropping the maximum stake to anywhere between £2 to £50. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm guessing the upper end.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    Last I heard (R4m this morning) it was going to be reduced to either £2, or £50, so it's not a done deal yet.

    Under timidity May, £50 would not surprise me.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    It's a government review that *could* advise dropping the maximum stake to anywhere between £2 to £50. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm guessing the upper end.

    If they don't pretty much ban them by reducing the stake to peanuts (standard one arm bandit stuff at the arcades), then they need to hang their heads in shame.

    Tories are not 'c'onservative, if they were they would have conservative rather than neo-liberal views on such issues as gambling.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    Last I heard (R4m this morning) it was going to be reduced to either £2, or £50, so it's not a done deal yet.

    Under timidity May, £50 would not surprise me.
    It should be £2 and most of the posters on this site will lose the whales that subsidise their bets with Shadsy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    Last I heard (R4m this morning) it was going to be reduced to either £2, or £50, so it's not a done deal yet.

    Under timidity May, £50 would not surprise me.
    It should be £2 and most of the posters on this site will lose the whales that subsidise their bets with Shadsy.
    Do you really think Shadsy's political markets are net losers for Ladbrokes?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited October 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, could the Republicans lose the Alabama Senate race in December? It seems almost inconceivable, but the polls show the Republican up 6-8%, and if it's low turnout, it's just possible that the Dems grab it.

    Are there odds anywhere?

    The most recent poll - on a sample size five times the others - has the Republican up by 11. If turnout is low in Alabama of course it usually helps the Republicans anyway - so I expect a Republican hold.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html

    But these state polls can be a bit all over the place - in the Virginia governor race polls in the last week have had the Democrat up 17 and the Republican ahead by 8!

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    Last I heard (R4m this morning) it was going to be reduced to either £2, or £50, so it's not a done deal yet.

    Under timidity May, £50 would not surprise me.
    It should be £2 and most of the posters on this site will lose the whales that subsidise their bets with Shadsy.
    Of course it should.
    I am less than confident that May will do the right thing, but I hope to be proved wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yesterday, I did switch from backing Trump to serve a full term/not be impeached to the reverse.

    It's not a market I'm in, but I didn't hear a game changer yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/924992803809218560
    But it's still not Trump. And all the charges are about stuff from years ago.

    It all seems a bit Andy Coulson will bring down David Cameron.
    We've got an email trail from George showing collusion with the upper echelons of the Trump campaign.
    And making that public at the same time as he announces criminal proceeding which could conceivably result in 30 year sentences is how Mueller shakes the tree...

    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/30/mueller-congress-republicans-trump-244344
    …But the special counsel sent a more powerful signal to others around the president with the public release of a plea deal struck with low-level loyalist George Papadopoulos, which was full of details about the former foreign policy adviser’s email traffic to still-unnamed high-ranking campaign officials about a “request from Russia to meet Mr. Trump.”

    “In unsealing it, he knows he’s sending messages to at least three or four other operatives and their lawyers that he’s got somebody in his corner who could be damaging to their interests,” said Randall Samborn, a former senior aide on the George W. Bush-era special counsel investigation into who leaked the identity of CIA operative Valerie Plame Wilson….
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    Mueller's public document releases here:
    https://www.justice.gov/sco
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,072
    F1: as some have noted already, Verstappen's three race wins have all come the race after Kvyat got dropped.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,777
    Nigelb said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    Last I heard (R4m this morning) it was going to be reduced to either £2, or £50, so it's not a done deal yet.

    Under timidity May, £50 would not surprise me.
    It should be £2 and most of the posters on this site will lose the whales that subsidise their bets with Shadsy.
    Of course it should.
    I am less than confident that May will do the right thing, but I hope to be proved wrong.
    The compromise should be £2 max a bet but 1 more machine in a shop....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    https://order-order.com/2017/10/31/police-consider-action-scandal-hit-lavery/



    Oooops....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,981
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, could the Republicans lose the Alabama Senate race in December? It seems almost inconceivable, but the polls show the Republican up 6-8%, and if it's low turnout, it's just possible that the Dems grab it.

    Are there odds anywhere?

    The most recent poll - on a sample size five times the others - has the Republican up by 11. If turnout is low in Alabama of course it usually helps the Republicans anyway - so I expect a Republican hold.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html

    But these state polls can be a bit all over the place - in the Virginia governor race polls in the last week have had the Democrat up 17 and the Republican ahead by 8!

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html
    The state polls were of course notoriously duff for the 2016 presidential.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    Slackbladder said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/10/31/police-consider-action-scandal-hit-lavery/



    Oooops....

    If there's a by-election, will the LibDems keep their deposit?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,981
    Slackbladder said:

    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
    It shouldn't be: different sort of radiation and pollution. Hiroshima is a thriving city; Chernobyl is uninhabitable basically for ever. Still, not to be taken lightly either.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Slackbladder said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/10/31/police-consider-action-scandal-hit-lavery/



    Oooops....

    It's often been said that Conservative scandals tend to be about sex and Labour scandals about money.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,429
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    I bet the lady in the pink dress won't be so quick to report this... ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,937
    david_herdson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
    It shouldn't be: different sort of radiation and pollution. Hiroshima is a thriving city; Chernobyl is uninhabitable basically for ever. Still, not to be taken lightly either.
    Telegraph saying the initial collapse happened on October 10th (killing 100), and a second collapse buried 100 rescuers...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FOBT stake ≤ £2 is the best gambling news of the day.

    Wow, is there a link to that?
    Last I heard (R4m this morning) it was going to be reduced to either £2, or £50, so it's not a done deal yet.

    Under timidity May, £50 would not surprise me.
    It should be £2 and most of the posters on this site will lose the whales that subsidise their bets with Shadsy.
    Of course it should.
    I am less than confident that May will do the right thing, but I hope to be proved wrong.
    The compromise should be £2 max a bet but 1 more machine in a shop....
    The four proposals are £2, £20, £30 and £50. An absolutely classic bit of framing - I'd be surprised if the outcome wasn't £20.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,505
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea-missiles-tunnel/tunnel-collapse-may-have-killed-200-after-north-korea-nuclear-test-japanese-broadcaster-idUKKBN1D0189?il=0
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    rottenborough said:

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-northkorea-missiles-tunnel/tunnel-collapse-may-have-killed-200-after-north-korea-nuclear-test-japanese-broadcaster-idUKKBN1D0189?il=0

    This is rather good news, because it happened some weeks ago and the Chinese are not reporting large amounts of airborne contamination crossing their border. Whatever accident they have had has been such that the nuclear material has been contained locally.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm with David Herdson on this, I think it is unlikely that Trump resigns/is impeached. If he is to go this term, I would reckon it would likely be because of a major health issue (it doesn't have to be death, merely something serious) given the nature of the job and his level of physical fitness. (I'd guess that's a 20-25% chance.)

    However, I would be very surprised if Donald Trump didn't face a primary challenger (or two). And history suggests that incumbent Presidents that face serious challenges for the nomination (George HW Bush, Carter, Ford) don't tend to get re-elected. It's not a cast iron rule (Clinton was challenged by Lyndon LaRouche... who was in prison at the time), but it is suggestive. My money is on him not running again in 2020.

    Nixon was challenged in the 1972 primaries yet still beat McGovern by a landslide.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,397
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm with David Herdson on this, I think it is unlikely that Trump resigns/is impeached. If he is to go this term, I would reckon it would likely be because of a major health issue (it doesn't have to be death, merely something serious) given the nature of the job and his level of physical fitness. (I'd guess that's a 20-25% chance.)

    However, I would be very surprised if Donald Trump didn't face a primary challenger (or two). And history suggests that incumbent Presidents that face serious challenges for the nomination (George HW Bush, Carter, Ford) don't tend to get re-elected. It's not a cast iron rule (Clinton was challenged by Lyndon LaRouche... who was in prison at the time), but it is suggestive. My money is on him not running again in 2020.

    I think Trump unlikely to be re-elected because he won't have the constituency. Two main groups of people voted for him last time: social conservatives and apolitical blue collar workers. We can assume most social conservatives will stick with Trump if he is the Republican contender.

    It's hard to see why the blue collar workers would do so. These are people who don't care about social values, but think America is going in the wrong direction, think the country needs someone different in charge, liked Trump's message of kicking ass,putting America first and stopping factories being shut. They saw him as a businessman who got results. Next time Trump won't be the challenger. He will be the incumbent defending his record. It's unlikely he will have much of a record to defend. His legal difficulties will be a distraction at best.

    So whether he will decide not to stand, another Republican contender is found or the general election goes Democrat, it comes to the same thing as all possibilities are linked. If the Republican base reckon he won't win the general election, they will choose someone else. In that case, Trump may decide to avoid the humiliation.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm with David Herdson on this, I think it is unlikely that Trump resigns/is impeached. If he is to go this term, I would reckon it would likely be because of a major health issue (it doesn't have to be death, merely something serious) given the nature of the job and his level of physical fitness. (I'd guess that's a 20-25% chance.)

    However, I would be very surprised if Donald Trump didn't face a primary challenger (or two). And history suggests that incumbent Presidents that face serious challenges for the nomination (George HW Bush, Carter, Ford) don't tend to get re-elected. It's not a cast iron rule (Clinton was challenged by Lyndon LaRouche... who was in prison at the time), but it is suggestive. My money is on him not running again in 2020.

    Nixon was challenged in the 1972 primaries yet still beat McGovern by a landslide.
    The key word here is McGovern.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    https://twitter.com/steven_winstone/status/925309469726298112
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    BannedInParis said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm with David Herdson on this, I think it is unlikely that Trump resigns/is impeached. If he is to go this term, I would reckon it would likely be because of a major health issue (it doesn't have to be death, merely something serious) given the nature of the job and his level of physical fitness. (I'd guess that's a 20-25% chance.)

    However, I would be very surprised if Donald Trump didn't face a primary challenger (or two). And history suggests that incumbent Presidents that face serious challenges for the nomination (George HW Bush, Carter, Ford) don't tend to get re-elected. It's not a cast iron rule (Clinton was challenged by Lyndon LaRouche... who was in prison at the time), but it is suggestive. My money is on him not running again in 2020.

    Nixon was challenged in the 1972 primaries yet still beat McGovern by a landslide.
    The key word here is McGovern.
    There is every chance the Democrats pick another McGovern in 2020.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Nigelb said:

    david_herdson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TonyE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/925290754469134336

    This may or may not be confirmed, but there have been various news sources over the last few weeks reporting Chinese concern over the test site for the Korean Nuclear Weapons program which has been over used and undermined.

    The Chinese apparently fear a massive contamination incident.
    I assume it wouldn't be on the scale of a nuclear power accident like Chernoybl or Fukushima though would it?
    It shouldn't be: different sort of radiation and pollution. Hiroshima is a thriving city; Chernobyl is uninhabitable basically for ever. Still, not to be taken lightly either.
    Telegraph saying the initial collapse happened on October 10th (killing 100), and a second collapse buried 100 rescuers...
    I guess one of the interesting question is were the initial 100 killed 'disposable workers' or 'valuable scientists', and therefore could the collapse have any effect on the ongoing program (apart from the abandonment of the current test site, which in itself may cause a delay in testing).

    Sorry about the unpleasant definition of 'disposable workers', but trying to get into the RNK mindset!
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    No chance Trump doesn't make it to 2020, and I don't see any Republican capable of beating him to the nomination again
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    PeterMannion said:

    No chance Trump doesn't make it to 2020, and I don't see any Republican capable of beating him to the nomination again

    So he loses to a Democrat?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard Nixon faced a Democrat-controlled Congress. Donald Trump has a Republican-controlled Congress. Unless the 2018 elections produce a pretty dramatic shift in the balance of power (or the evidence against Donald Trump is incontrovertible not just to a forensic expert but also to the man in the street), he still looks a strong favourite to survive.

    That said, I was amazed just how far the FBI seem to have got so far. Yesterday was a real coup.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Slackbladder said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/10/31/police-consider-action-scandal-hit-lavery/



    Oooops....

    It's often been said that Conservative scandals tend to be about sex and Labour scandals about money.
    I think Jeffrey Archer combined both.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    logical_song said:

    PeterMannion said:

    No chance Trump doesn't make it to 2020, and I don't see any Republican capable of beating him to the nomination again

    So he loses to a Democrat?
    Again.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    For those of a prurient bent, or - more pertinently to PB - might be considering bets on "next departure" or "next by-election", the Sun story on the Tory spreadsheet is (deliberately?) badly obscured.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4804173/sex-pest-dossier-names-six-cabinet-ministers-and-senior-allies-of-pm/

    It appears that the Sun has blacked out each name proportionately to its length, rather than using the same length for all. This makes it fairly trivial, if the rule holds, to try and identify one or two of the politicians named.

    For example, the ex-Cabinet Minister who is "Inappropriate with female researchers and uses prostitutes for odd sexual acts" appears to have, in the Sun's spreadsheet (...and I'm purposefully phrasing this delicately...) an unusually long name.

    There's also a current Cabinet Minister, whose description is entirely blacked out, and who has a very short name.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,263
    This news from NK would fit with the lack of activity in recent weeks.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard Nixon faced a Democrat-controlled Congress. Donald Trump has a Republican-controlled Congress. Unless the 2018 elections produce a pretty dramatic shift in the balance of power (or the evidence against Donald Trump is incontrovertible not just to a forensic expert but also to the man in the street), he still looks a strong favourite to survive.

    That said, I was amazed just how far the FBI seem to have got so far. Yesterday was a real coup.

    With you, @david_herdson and @rcs1000 singing from the same hymn-sheet, I have laid off a little of yesterday's 1.96 on Trump to go.

    But Mueller does look extraordinary effective, as you say. Or perhaps his quarries were just extraordinarily careless?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AllieHBNews: Prue Leith has expressed regret after accidentally revealing the winner of #GBBO saying: "I'm in too much of a state to talk about it."

    PMSL
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    PeterMannion said:

    No chance Trump doesn't make it to 2020, and I don't see any Republican capable of beating him to the nomination again

    Is there any way the Republicans can kick him out of the party?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,220
    Ms Oakeshott tweets:

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/925312634936840192
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    CarlottaVance said:

    Ms Oakeshott tweets:

    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/925312634936840192

    So she's seen the real spreadsheet, rather than the redacted one? Oh what it is to be connected!
    I wonder if she's a betting woman?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    It's worth reading (as ever) Paul Krishnamurty on this. Conclusion:

    However, while I doubt his ability to survive, I must reiterate earlier betting advice. Opposing Trump to win in 2020 is a far better value option than any of these short-term exit markets. It is possible that this divisive chaos could ensue for the full four years but surely by the next election, voters will have had enough.

    https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/donald-trump-exit-date-latest-betting-and-odds-311017-171.html
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