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Benpointer

Thirst!

oxfordsimon

Today has been a very long day in politics. And nothing has happened.

Benpointer

A few Cabinet 'inappropriate behaviour' casualities would improve Tezza's chances of fighting the next election as leader no end imo. If she's at all machiavelian she'll be making one or two walk the plank in the next week.

TwistedFireStopper

Boris is a witty writer and a funny TV host. There are probably many universes where he is an excellent Prime Minister. Luckily for us, this one ain't one of 'em.

HYUFD

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

ydoethur

oxfordsimon said:

Today has been a very long day in politics. And nothing has happened.

Oh, I don't know. If parish council results are key, then the Tories have had a very good day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-41808879

With that I will leave you. Good night all.

oxfordsimon

Benpointer said:

A few Cabinet 'inappropriate behaviour' casualities would improve Tezza's chances of fighting the next election as leader no end imo. If she's at all machiavelian she'll be making one or two walk the plank in the next week.

I agree that she could use this as an opportunity to reassert some authority and draw a line under the past few months.

Whether she is astute enough to do so with any success is another matter. Her political instincts have not been strong of late.

kle4

ydoethur said:

oxfordsimon said:

Today has been a very long day in politics. And nothing has happened.

Oh, I don't know. If parish council results are key, then the Tories have had a very good day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-41808879

With that I will leave you. Good night all.

He added: "Without UKIP the Tories are going to be able to get away with an unsatisfactory Brexit

With all respect to UKIP, I think other factors will be more critical as to what Brexit we get.

Cyclefree

BoJo is an overrated chump. I hope he never becomes PM.

Benpointer

Sadly, JRM could do well out of this... I cannot for the life of me see him being guilty of inappropriate behaviour.

HYUFD

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and another general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

kle4

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

FrancisUrquhart

Quiet news day, what are we possibly going to talk about this evening? AV vs PR^2 ?

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

not_on_fire

https://twitter.com/jnsanchez/status/924983501035851776

TwistedFireStopper

If there are lots of MPs caught up in the harassment scandal, where does that leave Westminster as a functioning parliament? In the current climate, any one accused or implicated in it will be hard pressed to keep the whip at the very least. Maybe it's time to just metaphorically go for the Ripley Doctrine and start again?

RobD

TwistedFireStopper said:

Boris is a witty writer and a funny TV host. There are probably many universes where he is an excellent Prime Minister. Luckily for us, this one ain't one of 'em.

Luckily? We don't want an excellent PM?

foxinsoxuk

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

TwistedFireStopper

RobD said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Boris is a witty writer and a funny TV host. There are probably many universes where he is an excellent Prime Minister. Luckily for us, this one ain't one of 'em.

Luckily? We don't want an excellent PM?

Yeah, I realised what I'd done, but couldn't edit it on my phone. My bad. A ruined insult is no insult at all.

RobD

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Perhaps the men in grey suits kept the most deviant away from the highest office?

Theuniondivvie

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

I know going from government to government tends to be different, but given opposition leaders from at best leading a party for years to leading the country, perhaps it is time for a PM who did not hold one of the Great Offices. A PM who intends to be quite managerial and making use of the talent, such as it is, could easily justify a lack of top level experience.

FrancisUrquhart

not_on_fire said:

twitter.com/jnsanchez/status/924983501035851776

See even msm are struggling to find stories to fill this slow news day.

FrancisUrquhart

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I thought that is what she did every day?

oxfordsimon

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

Not sure she is the more reliable source on the planet....

kle4

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Perhaps the men in grey suits kept the most deviant away from the highest office?

They get a bad rap, the men in grey suits, but I guess they aren't all bad.

Scott_P

TwistedFireStopper said:

If there are lots of MPs caught up in the harassment scandal, where does that leave Westminster as a functioning parliament? In the current climate, any one accused or implicated in it will be hard pressed to keep the whip at the very least. Maybe it's time to just metaphorically go for the Ripley Doctrine and start again?

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/925114234073165830

Theuniondivvie

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I thought that is what she did every day?

Dunno, I don't follow her.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I thought that is what she did every day?

She's really gone off-piste today, claiming that AV is better than FPTP...

TwistedFireStopper

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I'm not a big fan of Osborne, but who amongst us hasn't had their ear licked by a Naomi Campbell look alike a wild party and ended up brawling on the floor with her boyfriend??

Ishmael_Z

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I thought that is what she did every day?

She's really gone off-piste today, claiming that AV is better than FPTP...

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

Good point - when was the list time between GEs that a PM was replaced by someone who was not Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor?

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I thought that is what she did every day?

She's really gone off-piste today, claiming that AV is better than FPTP...

That has to be the most outrageous and factually incorrect claim she has ever made on twitter!

kle4

TwistedFireStopper said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I'm not a big fan of Osborne, but who amongst us hasn't had their ear licked by a Naomi Campbell look alike a wild party and ended up brawling on the floor with her boyfriend??

Round my way we call that a Thursday.

TheScreamingEagles

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

Good point - when was the list time between GEs that a PM was replaced by someone who was not Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor?

1940.

Sir Winston Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty before he became PM.

Theuniondivvie

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I thought that is what she did every day?

She's really gone off-piste today, claiming that AV is better than FPTP...

I thought it was EM is better than BDS?

Big_G_NorthWales

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

Good point - when was the list time between GEs that a PM was replaced by someone who was not Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor?

Always a first time

Charles

kle4 said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Perhaps the men in grey suits kept the most deviant away from the highest office?

They get a bad rap, the men in grey suits, but I guess they aren't all bad.

Thank you. I think.

TheScreamingEagles

TwistedFireStopper said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I'm not a big fan of Osborne, but who amongst us hasn't had their ear licked by a Naomi Campbell look alike a wild party and ended up brawling on the floor with her boyfriend??

That's a typical night out in Manchester, especially when you visit The Village.

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

Good point - when was the list time between GEs that a PM was replaced by someone who was not Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor?

1940.

Sir Winston Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty before he became PM.

Unusual circumstances though.

RobD

@TheScreamingEagles... I assume you have some sort of system set up so that whenever someone types "AV" you get an alert on your phone?

oxfordsimon

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

Good point - when was the list time between GEs that a PM was replaced by someone who was not Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor?

1940.

Sir Winston Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty before he became PM.

Unusual circumstances though.

I think we are living through pretty unusual times now

PClipp

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Theuniondivvie said:

As if today wasn't eventful enough, Natalie Rowe is making a pretty arresting assertion on twitter.

I thought that is what she did every day?

She's really gone off-piste today, claiming that AV is better than FPTP...

Well, of course, it is. But that`snot saying much. Almost everything is better than FPTP.

The only people who like it are those who support the Tory/Labour Party duopoly - and that is just a matter of self-interest!

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

@TheScreamingEagles... I assume you have some sort of system set up so that whenever someone types "AV" you get an alert on your phone?

My Natalie Rowe spider sense was tingling.

foxinsoxuk

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

FrancisUrquhart

I have to say I never knew this lobbying lark paid so well...$70 million for supporting a pro Putin Ukraine politician is a nice little earner.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

@TheScreamingEagles... I assume you have some sort of system set up so that whenever someone types "AV" you get an alert on your phone?

My Natalie Rowe spider sense was tingling.

Ah of course, that one totally overwhelms the tingling of the AV spidey-sense.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/925119948439027713

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have to say I never knew this lobbying lark paid so well...$70 million for supporting a pro Putin Ukraine politician is a nice little earner.

I've been invited to an event hosted by the Russian Embassy in December.

So that's both Mike and myself that have been invited by them in recent times.

I'm hoping for a honeytrap.

RobD

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

If Iceland can measure real GDP for its 330,000 people every quarter, and if Estonia can measure real GDP for its 1.3m people every quarter, then it’s not good enough that much larger parts of the UK, and many other parts of the world, have much worse data.

Not sure I buy that argument. Yorkshire isn't in charge of collecting taxes, imposing duties etc.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

Good point - when was the list time between GEs that a PM was replaced by someone who was not Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor?

1940.

Sir Winston Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty before he became PM.

Thank you - I knew someone on here would know, should have guessed it would be TSE!

Even though I fully expect Brexit to be an unmitigated disaster, I think comparisons to 1940 would be somewhat exaggerated.

On balance I suspect TMay will go on to defeat at the next GE.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have to say I never knew this lobbying lark paid so well...$70 million for supporting a pro Putin Ukraine politician is a nice little earner.

I've been invited to an event hosted by the Russian Embassy in December.

So that's both Mike and myself that have been invited by them in recent times.

I'm hoping for a honeytrap.

Be wary of the buxom blonde who wants to know more about your choice of voting systems.

TheScreamingEagles

Benpointer said:

Thank you - I knew someone on here would know, should have guessed it would be TSE!

Even though I fully expect Brexit to be an unmitigated disaster, I think comparisons to 1940 would be somewhat exaggerated.

On balance I suspect TMay will go on to defeat at the next GE.

I'm PB's history expert, from classics to modern day.

I'm writing a thread comparing Mrs May to Neville Chamberlain and the Brexiteers to the appeasers.

oxfordsimon

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/925119948439027713

I am not sure it will be worse than expenses. That was all about ripping off the tax payer. Inappropriate behaviour is a very different beast. Of course, if there is widespread criminality - that may change things. But at this stage, it doesn't seem to be reaching those depths.

I may be wrong - and we might be entering into a period of public puritanism - but whilst harassment is wrong and should be condemned, I suspect the fallout may not be the same as for the expenses scandal.

foxinsoxuk

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

If Iceland can measure real GDP for its 330,000 people every quarter, and if Estonia can measure real GDP for its 1.3m people every quarter, then it’s not good enough that much larger parts of the UK, and many other parts of the world, have much worse data.

Not sure I buy that argument. Yorkshire isn't in charge of collecting taxes, imposing duties etc.

I think it is a useful tool for explaining provincial dislike of metropolitan elites.

Here is the East Midlands compared to NE France and Italy.

Italy comes out best.

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/indexedeu/?options=true&columns=0,1,158,188,363

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/925121821128691712

Benpointer

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

Interesting tool Fox. Brings to life how poorly the economy has been managed since 2010!

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have to say I never knew this lobbying lark paid so well...$70 million for supporting a pro Putin Ukraine politician is a nice little earner.

I've been invited to an event hosted by the Russian Embassy in December.

So that's both Mike and myself that have been invited by them in recent times.

I'm hoping for a honeytrap.

'Vladimir Putin: Awesome guy, or most awesome guy? Revising our anti-russian sentiments' by TSE

Y0kel

Trumpton: Mr Papadopoulos.

This guy does have the Trump family worried, not least because he is relatively left field, even to the WH. Apparently a bag carrier level, he has knowledge and there is strong evidence he might have shared.

The charge, that he has pleaded guilty to, points to one of the central allegations; that the Trump campaign engaged with people who operated under direction from a foreign & hostile government and intelligence service to try to help them win the election. Hard to ignore that.

Democrat supporters needn't be laughing yet, some of their own are under scrutiny.

justin124

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

Good point - when was the list time between GEs that a PM was replaced by someone who was not Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor?

1940.

Sir Winston Churchill was First Lord of the Admiralty before he became PM.

Before that I believe Baldwin was Lord President of the Council until succeeding Ramsay Macdonald in May 1935.

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have to say I never knew this lobbying lark paid so well...$70 million for supporting a pro Putin Ukraine politician is a nice little earner.

Is it wrong to suggest I'd be happy to do it for half that, Mr Putin?

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/925121821128691712

The way our bureaucracy works I'm shocked it would take as little as 5.

HYUFD

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

kle4

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/925119948439027713

I am not sure it will be worse than expenses. That was all about ripping off the tax payer. Inappropriate behaviour is a very different beast. Of course, if there is widespread criminality - that may change things. But at this stage, it doesn't seem to be reaching those depths.

I may be wrong - and we might be entering into a period of public puritanism - but whilst harassment is wrong and should be condemned, I suspect the fallout may not be the same as for the expenses scandal.

One of the dangers may well be over-hyping what is poor but not monstrous behaviour.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have to say I never knew this lobbying lark paid so well...$70 million for supporting a pro Putin Ukraine politician is a nice little earner.

I've been invited to an event hosted by the Russian Embassy in December.

So that's both Mike and myself that have been invited by them in recent times.

I'm hoping for a honeytrap.

'Vladimir Putin: Awesome guy, or most awesome guy? Revising our anti-russian sentiments' by TSE

When I was at university, I was asked to write a piece about 'Who is the UK's most important European ally' and we had to come out with leftfield suggestions.

I came up with Russia, the précis of which was 'We're the bookends of Europe that keep the Germans in their place'

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

I know going from government to government tends to be different, but given opposition leaders from at best leading a party for years to leading the country, perhaps it is time for a PM who did not hold one of the Great Offices. A PM who intends to be quite managerial and making use of the talent, such as it is, could easily justify a lack of top level experience.

Even a leader of the opposition has years in the public eye and honing his policies and top team for power, that is not the case for a young leader thrust into the top job without high office experience. Even Kurz was Austrian Foreign Minister and Macron French Finance Minister

justin124

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

oxfordsimon

kle4 said:

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/925119948439027713

I am not sure it will be worse than expenses. That was all about ripping off the tax payer. Inappropriate behaviour is a very different beast. Of course, if there is widespread criminality - that may change things. But at this stage, it doesn't seem to be reaching those depths.

I may be wrong - and we might be entering into a period of public puritanism - but whilst harassment is wrong and should be condemned, I suspect the fallout may not be the same as for the expenses scandal.

One of the dangers may well be over-hyping what is poor but not monstrous behaviour.

Absolutely. There will be lots of faux outrage and posturing - as we saw in the House this afternoon.

Scott_P

Y0kel said:

Trumpton: Mr Papadopoulos.

This guy does have the Trump family worried, not least because he is relatively left field, even to the WH. Apparently a bag carrier level, he has knowledge and there is strong evidence he might have shared.

The charge, that he has pleaded guilty to, points to one of the central allegations; that the Trump campaign engaged with people who operated under direction from a foreign & hostile government and intelligence service to try to help them win the election. Hard to ignore that.

Democrat supporters needn't be laughing yet, some of their own are under scrutiny.

There seems to be suggestions he was wearing a wire, for several weeks.

Is that likely?

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

I know going from government to government tends to be different, but given opposition leaders from at best leading a party for years to leading the country, perhaps it is time for a PM who did not hold one of the Great Offices. A PM who intends to be quite managerial and making use of the talent, such as it is, could easily justify a lack of top level experience.

Even a leader of the opposition has years in the public eye and honing his policies and top team for power,

That's the argument, but a counter would be that even being LOTO is no substitute for and no real preparation for the top job. In countries with more fluid politics someone might not even be leader of the main opposition before suddenly getting the top job.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/924769852753088513

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Perhaps he did not but the rumours were certainly rife at the time.

foxinsoxuk

Benpointer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

Interesting tool Fox. Brings to life how poorly the economy has been managed since 2010!

Czechia now has higher GDP per capita than the EMids, and Wales is on a par with Estonia. Ominously we are on a downward trend while they are upward.

Benpointer

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

If Iceland can measure real GDP for its 330,000 people every quarter, and if Estonia can measure real GDP for its 1.3m people every quarter, then it’s not good enough that much larger parts of the UK, and many other parts of the world, have much worse data.

Not sure I buy that argument. Yorkshire isn't in charge of collecting taxes, imposing duties etc.

I think it is a useful tool for explaining provincial dislike of metropolitan elites.

Here is the East Midlands compared to NE France and Italy.

Italy comes out best.

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/indexedeu/?options=true&columns=0,1,158,188,363

Great tool... but how does Italy come out best? Luxembourg, Hamburg (surprisingly), Brussels, then London and Ile de France seem to be the wealthiest regions.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/925124627956985856

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/sethabramson/status/925105035717087233

foxinsoxuk

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Considering the scrutiny on Heath, virtually nothing has been found. At most he was a latent homosexual, but more probably asexual.

Indeed I would make the case that some of the most driven politicians are those that sublimate their libido in the direction of their careers.

justin124

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Perhaps he did not but the rumours were certainly rife at the time.

Indeed so - but Mary Wilson - who will be 102 next January - and Lady Falkender are apparently good friends.

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

I know going from government to government tends to be different, but given opposition leaders from at best leading a party for years to leading the country, perhaps it is time for a PM who did not hold one of the Great Offices. A PM who intends to be quite managerial and making use of the talent, such as it is, could easily justify a lack of top level experience.

Even a leader of the opposition has years in the public eye and honing his policies and top team for power,

That's the argument, but a counter would be that even being LOTO is no substitute for and no real preparation for the top job. In countries with more fluid politics someone might not even be leader of the main opposition before suddenly getting the top job.

No, if they become PM from leader of the opposition they do so having won a general election. I can think of no country where the top job has not gone to a senior Minister (or in the US a governor or experienced Senator or business leader), or leader of the opposition other than some dictatorships where it has gone to a senior general.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Perhaps he did not but the rumours were certainly rife at the time.

Indeed so - but Mary Wilson - who will be 102 next January - and Lady Falkender are apparently good friends.

Maybe but that does not mean for definite there was no affair.

Y0kel

Scott_P said:

Y0kel said:

Trumpton: Mr Papadopoulos.

This guy does have the Trump family worried, not least because he is relatively left field, even to the WH. Apparently a bag carrier level, he has knowledge and there is strong evidence he might have shared.

The charge, that he has pleaded guilty to, points to one of the central allegations; that the Trump campaign engaged with people who operated under direction from a foreign & hostile government and intelligence service to try to help them win the election. Hard to ignore that.

Democrat supporters needn't be laughing yet, some of their own are under scrutiny.

There seems to be suggestions he was wearing a wire, for several weeks.

Is that likely?

Nowadays you don't have to wear one, you just talk over the phone and do meetings in convenient places.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have to say I never knew this lobbying lark paid so well...$70 million for supporting a pro Putin Ukraine politician is a nice little earner.

I've been invited to an event hosted by the Russian Embassy in December.

So that's both Mike and myself that have been invited by them in recent times.

I'm hoping for a honeytrap.

Best to send a stand-in because they'll be taking photos/videos.

I happen to be free that evening...

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

If Iceland can measure real GDP for its 330,000 people every quarter, and if Estonia can measure real GDP for its 1.3m people every quarter, then it’s not good enough that much larger parts of the UK, and many other parts of the world, have much worse data.

Not sure I buy that argument. Yorkshire isn't in charge of collecting taxes, imposing duties etc.

I think it is a useful tool for explaining provincial dislike of metropolitan elites.

Here is the East Midlands compared to NE France and Italy.

Italy comes out best.

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/indexedeu/?options=true&columns=0,1,158,188,363

Great tool... but how does Italy come out best? Luxembourg, Hamburg (surprisingly), Brussels, then London and Ile de France seem to be the wealthiest regions.

Inner London is comfortably the wealthiest region in Europe.

oxfordsimon

foxinsoxuk said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Considering the scrutiny on Heath, virtually nothing has been found. At most he was a latent homosexual, but more probably asexual.

Indeed I would make the case that some of the most driven politicians are those that sublimate their libido in the direction of their careers.

The recent investigation into Heath was really badly handled. It is really unacceptable to have framed the report in the way they did.

foxinsoxuk

Benpointer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

If Iceland can measure real GDP for its 330,000 people every quarter, and if Estonia can measure real GDP for its 1.3m people every quarter, then it’s not good enough that much larger parts of the UK, and many other parts of the world, have much worse data.

Not sure I buy that argument. Yorkshire isn't in charge of collecting taxes, imposing duties etc.

I think it is a useful tool for explaining provincial dislike of metropolitan elites.

Here is the East Midlands compared to NE France and Italy.

Italy comes out best.

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/indexedeu/?options=true&columns=0,1,158,188,363

Great tool... but how does Italy come out best? Luxembourg, Hamburg (surprisingly), Brussels, then London and Ile de France seem to be the wealthiest regions.

It comes out best of EMids and NE France. Perhaps fairer would be to compare with a post industrial region of Italy.

There does seem to be a concentration of wealth in all the capital cities compared to the same countries regions.

Some may be real, some perhaps where nationwide businesses record their output.

TheWhiteRabbit

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/925124627956985856

Not feeling good about my £40 at evens on BoJo surviving the year. Not because its him (necessarily) - just a reshuffle...

I know a few rumours, none at "senior Cabinet level"...

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

I ence.

Even a leader of the opposition has years in the public eye and honing his policies and top team for power,

That's the argument, but a counter would be that even being LOTO is no substitute for and no real preparation for the top job. In countries with more fluid politics someone might not even be leader of the main opposition before suddenly getting the top job.

No, if they become PM from leader of the opposition they do so having won a general election. I can think of no country where the top job has not gone to a senior Minister (or in the US a governor or experienced Senator or business leader), or leader of the opposition other than some dictatorships where it has gone to a senior general.

What does winning a GE have to do with proving you can do the job of PM though? A good campaigner may end up being a crap PM, there is no direct link between the skills required of a LOTO and PM.

Now I'm not saying that the test of a campaign and leading a party for years is not a good idea, it's better than nothing, but I question the assumption they are in fact definitive tests, and I see no reason someone could not do a very good job without doing either, though it would be hard to identify such a person in its absence.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Perhaps he did not but the rumours were certainly rife at the time.

Indeed so - but Mary Wilson - who will be 102 next January - and Lady Falkender are apparently good friends.

Maybe but that does not mean for definite there was no affair.

"Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men"
That definitely may or may not be true

justin124

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Wilson probably had a mistress, Marcia Williams, Heath probably certainly had affairs with young men even if he was not a paedophile. As you say Major had an affair and there have been rumours about Blair and at least 1 about Cameron I know of, though of course that does not mean it is true.
LBJ had affairs with secretaries, FDR had a mistress, Bush Snr allegedly did too, as JFK and Clinton had multiple affairs and of course Trump has a history.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Perhaps he did not but the rumours were certainly rife at the time.

Indeed so - but Mary Wilson - who will be 102 next January - and Lady Falkender are apparently good friends.

Maybe but that does not mean for definite there was no affair.

I did read somewhere that if that ever happened it would have been in the mid-1950s when Marcia became Wilson's political secretary - ie long before he became PM or Labour leader.

RobD

TheWhiteRabbit said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/925124627956985856

Not feeling good about my £40 at evens on BoJo surviving the year. Not because its him (necessarily) - just a reshuffle...

I know a few rumours, none at "senior Cabinet level"...

Someone mentioned it earlier in this thread (or maybe it was in the last thread) that this crisis may give May more of a free hand to move people in a reshuffle than she otherwise would have had.

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

I now think Davis will be the likely next Tory leader and PM after May and lead the Tories into the general election, if Boris is to become Tory leader it will most likely be as Leader of the Opposition but he will have to fight Jacob Rees-Mogg for it.

Davis is too old and beyond ambition, now. He can barely muster the energy for Brexit.

I suspect a younger, bolder man or woman will ascend.

Provided we get some sort of deal or clear moves towards it he will be in a strong position and a general election could only be a year or two away, if a younger man or woman is to ascend they need to climb the ranks of the Cabinet pretty fast.

With many old and tainted figures at the top, you wouldn't need to be too senior to get some recognition enough to be credible, perhaps. Maybe not Department of Administrative Affairs minor, but relatively so.

They will likely have to be a Leaver though and in government a new PM almost always holds one of the great offices of state, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary or Chancellor, though Davis as Secretary of State for Brexit, a new post but dealing with the defining matter of our age, probably qualifies on that score now too.

I ence.

Even a leader of the opposition has years in the public eye and honing his policies and top team for power,

That's the argument, but a getting the top job.

No, if they become PM from where it has gone to a senior general.

What does winning a GE have to do with proving you can do the job of PM though? A good campaigner may end up being a crap PM, there is no direct link between the skills required of a LOTO and PM.

Now I'm not saying that the test of a campaign and leading a party for years is not a good idea, it's better than nothing, but I question the assumption they are in fact definitive tests, and I see no reason someone could not do a very good job without doing either, though it would be hard to identify such a person in its absence.

Everything in a democracy as by definition the PM is supposed to be the leader of the party which attracts the most support from the voters. On your definition you may as well dispense with democracy and just appoint some technocrat, impossible if the government is to secure the long-term consent of the governed.

kle4

oxfordsimon said:

foxinsoxuk said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

FPT

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

It's come to something when I am possibly - nay, probably - the most morally admirable and sexually conventional person in British politics.

Westminster has always gone from virgins like Ann Widdecombe to occasional cheaters like Prescott and Major to serial adulterers like Alan Clark to those with a thing for interns like Crabb to gay cruisers like Matthew Parris to those whose tastes venture into the illegal like Cyril Smith and Jeremy Thorpe to those whose sexual tastes are bizarre in the extreme like Stephen Milligan, in that it is no different from the population as a whole but with power into the mix probably with added sexual frisson!

I think successful politicians, by definition, tend to be more highly sexed than most (more ambitious, driven, aggressive, full of testosterone). As the cliche goes, politics is showbiz for ugly people. And showbiz, as we know, is full of sexual predators.

Is this really so?

Theresa May: pretty straight laced
David Cameron: Married with kids, no history of sexual misadventures
Gordon Brown: Married late, no history of misbehaviour sexually.
Tony Blair: odd rumours, nil confirmed
John Major: Edwina Currie seemed the limit
Margaret Thatcher: happily married
James Callaghan: nil of note
Harold Wilson: happily married
Ted Heath: recently cleared by police, seemed Asexual
Before that, not much except David Lloyd George.

So far as I can see most of our leaders are boringly conventional in sexual matters.

Excepting Trump, Clinton and Kennedy, the same seems true of US Presidents in the postwar period.

W.

I was advised that Wilson did not have an affair with Marcia Williams.

Considering the scrutiny on Heath, virtually nothing has been found. At most he was a latent homosexual, but more probably asexual.

Indeed I would make the case that some of the most driven politicians are those that sublimate their libido in the direction of their careers.

The recent investigation into Heath was really badly handled. It is really unacceptable to have framed the report in the way they did.

It was without question an attempt to insinuate guilt to escape criticism off the back of the very low bar of 'would have sought to question' and a fundamentally flawed approach to complainant allegations.

williamglenn

The Sun is naming Fallon as the senior cabinet minister.

PeterMannion

IDS count as a senior cabinet minister (ex)?

Benpointer

foxinsoxuk said:

Benpointer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

If people want something to liven up a dull day via a little statistical analysis, I came across this little tool:

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/

The English East Midlands do worse on Percapita GDP PPP than the Attika region of Greece for example.

I came to it via this article, which is well worth a read:

https://twitter.com/CityMetric/status/924984562069000194

If Iceland can measure real GDP for its 330,000 people every quarter, and if Estonia can measure real GDP for its 1.3m people every quarter, then it’s not good enough that much larger parts of the UK, and many other parts of the world, have much worse data.

Not sure I buy that argument. Yorkshire isn't in charge of collecting taxes, imposing duties etc.

I think it is a useful tool for explaining provincial dislike of metropolitan elites.

Here is the East Midlands compared to NE France and Italy.

Italy comes out best.

http://imactivate.com/regionexplorer/indexedeu/?options=true&columns=0,1,158,188,363

Great tool... but how does Italy come out best? Luxembourg, Hamburg (surprisingly), Brussels, then London and Ile de France seem to be the wealthiest regions.

It comes out best of EMids and NE France. Perhaps fairer would be to compare with a post industrial region of Italy.

There does seem to be a concentration of wealth in all the capital cities compared to the same countries regions.

Some may be real, some perhaps where nationwide businesses record their output.

Some truth in that. South West England doesn't fare too well in the charts but large tranches of it (probably excepting Cornwall) don't seem too badly off on the ground tbh. But then a lot of London money gets pumped into this region via commuters, 2nd home owners & retirees.

Great tool though - thanks!

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/925126289866084352

AramintaMoonbeamQC

williamglenn said:

The Sun is naming Fallon as the senior cabinet minister.

Thought it was going to be IDS after some Twitter chat earlier, any news on the actual allegation?

RobD

williamglenn said:

The Sun is naming Fallon as the senior cabinet minister.

So much for a safe pair of hands!

RobD

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

williamglenn said:

The Sun is naming Fallon as the senior cabinet minister.

Thought it was going to be IDS after some Twitter chat earlier, any news on the actual allegation?

Why am I not surprised Twitter is wrong?

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/925124627956985856

Shock! It is Sir Michael Fallon, a dark horse if ever there was one
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/925126289866084352