Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when will a Conservative lead with YouGov occur

13»

Comments

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    Anyone ended up bombing Lebanon or Israel yet ?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    The more worrying thing is if you look on the results.. who the F- thinks it's in China or India?

    (assuming not a joke, like the ones putting it in the US, at least I hope they were jokes).
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    26 miles - but I blew it up...the map.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,998
    Mr. Boy, someone playing party politics with war and peace is unfit to govern.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    LOL! Blimey, Mark Senior is a twerp of the highest order!

    Seriously, Mark - did you really read that as me saying that was my view? You did? You were really so staggeringly stupid as to think that, despite the quotation marks and the context?

    Good lord. Well, if you're that stupid, you have my sympathy.

    Meanwhile, did you find any posts where I said Miliband was in Putin's pocket, as you claimed?

    There were no quotation marks in your original post . I understand your desire to call me stupid in a futile attempt to draw attention away from a partisan post which you are now no doubt embarrassed of making .
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone ended up bombing Lebanon or Israel yet ?

    Do we have any Iranian posters?

    I got within 10 miles having found the zoom function but it was a cheat having already done it. Apparently that was more accurate than 100% of the players so far.
  • Options

    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    The more worrying thing is if you look on the results.. who the F- thinks it's in China or India?

    (assuming not a joke, like the ones putting it in the US, at least I hope they were jokes).
    I was 52 miles out. Poor Lebanon.

  • Options
    Set up an 0871 telephone number for yourself when dealing with utility companies and providing a contact number to commercial organisations and earn 7p per minute when they phone you.

    See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-23869462
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    edited August 2013

    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    The more worrying thing is if you look on the results.. who the F- thinks it's in China or India?

    (assuming not a joke, like the ones putting it in the US, at least I hope they were jokes).
    There is a Damascus in Virginia and there may be more in the US.
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013

    There were no quotation marks in your original post . I understand your desire to call me stupid in a futile attempt to draw attention away from a partisan post which you are now no doubt embarrassed of making .

    There was a Hmm, wasn't there?

    I'm not in the least bit embarrassed about a completely non-partisan post, in an exchange where we were exploring the politics of what might happen if Miliband insisted on a UN resolution. As I rightly predicted later on, in the end he didn't make that blunder, no doubt precisely because he realised it risked being interpreted in the way which my post, which you so hilariously quoted having completely misunderstood, indicated might happen.

    But thanks for the amusement.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2013
    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    Too far South West and 160 miles out - which ironical is closer than Mrs SSC often gets just driving to Southampton.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    General Boles is on top form

    http://t.co/UHTgZz3cNH
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    BenM said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Dan Hodges told us how this is all bad news for Red yet?

    Yes, he has:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100233087/the-truth-about-the-syria-vote-miliband-changed-his-mind/
    I see Mr Smithson and Hodges betting habits gets a mention in the comments.

    LOL

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966

    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    The more worrying thing is if you look on the results.. who the F- thinks it's in China or India?

    (assuming not a joke, like the ones putting it in the US, at least I hope they were jokes).
    There are 9 Damascus in the US, but the closest two to the spot marked in Wyoming (Damascus, Oregon and Damascus Arkansas) are around a thousand miles away.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    I just did it and the message said 'Damascus is here'. does that mean i win?
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    Mr. Boy, someone playing party politics with war and peace is unfit to govern.

    We shouldn't be surprised. tim expressed it perfectly during the Eastbourne bye-election: nothing is more important than beating the Tories. If dictators are given the nod to carry on gassing children, so long as the Tories are politically damaged in the process then that's more important.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966
    felix said:

    I just did it and the message said 'Damascus is here'. does that mean i win?

    If you did it without google maps or similiar open in another window next to it, yes I suppose it does
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    Does today represent a Damasceme conversion for David Cameron?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    I just did it and the message said 'Damascus is here'. does that mean i win?

    If you did it without google maps or similiar open in another window next to it, yes I suppose it does
    Yes - I did magnify the map as allowed but was totally unaided. In another life i once taught geography but cannot pretend that helped me.

  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Rexel56 said:

    If dictators are given the nod to carry on gassing children, so long as the Tories are politically damaged in the process then that's more important.

    You are too nice Rexel56 - the gassing of children is actually a bonus rather than collateral damage to the nasty lefties.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    I'm Damascus and so's my wife.
  • Options
    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013


    There was a Hmm, wasn't there?

    Correction, I just looked it up. There was a question mark, which Mark curiously omitted, and a comment on it being a position (and a couple of posts later I say it's not a position I expect Miliband to take):

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/105844/#Comment_105844
  • Options
    Tory lead sometime in 2016 whilst in opposition I'd say.

    Too many relying on government handouts that expect the gravy train to keep on running when Labour get back in. Unfortunately mathematics doesn't seem to like that idea.
  • Options

    While we're linking to usvsth3m stuff, good to see Ed Miliband showing he's got a bit of copper in his bottom.

    http://usvsth3m.com/post/59663522187/so-which-government-source-called-ed-miliband-a

    If Ed M is a copper-bottomed s--t , does that make Dave a cast iron c--t ?

  • Options
    Neil said:

    Rexel56 said:

    If dictators are given the nod to carry on gassing children, so long as the Tories are politically damaged in the process then that's more important.

    You are too nice Rexel56 - the gassing of children is actually a bonus rather than collateral damage to the nasty lefties.
    Surely it all depends on what school they went to.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Daily Mail - Number 10's fury at 'f******' Miliband: Labour leader under fire after withdrawing support for Cameron's airstrike against Syria as Parliament is recalled today

    "There is growing anger inside government with Labour's shifting position as the divided opposition issued a tortured statement on, claiming Mr Cameron had failed to produce ‘compelling evidence’ showing the Assad regime had deployed chemical weapons.

    Throwing the Government’s plans for a vote on imminent missile attacks into chaos, Mr Miliband’s party did not come out and oppose intervention.

    Instead it claimed any action would have to meet six gruelling criteria which could take weeks to fulfil.

    Mr Miliband said: 'Parliament must agree criteria for action, not write a blank cheque.'

    But his refusal to support the Coalition sparked a furious response from the heart of government.

    'Number 10 and the Foreign Office think Miliband is a f****** c**** and a copper-bottomed s***,' a government source told The Times.

    'The French hate him now and he’s got no chance of building an alliance with the US Democratic Party,' the source added.

    The official Conservative press office Twitter feed said: 'Ed-Miliband is playing politics when he should be thinking about the national interest and global security.'

    Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi tweeted: 'It's weak leadership to seek political advantage while every effort is being made to achieve consensus in the national interest Ed-Miliband.'"

    Mr. Boy, someone playing party politics with war and peace is unfit to govern.

  • Options
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    felix said:

    I just did it and the message said 'Damascus is here'. does that mean i win?

    If you did it without google maps or similiar open in another window next to it, yes I suppose it does
    Yes - I did magnify the map as allowed but was totally unaided. In another life i once taught geography but cannot pretend that helped me.

    I went on the basis that it was on the coast and shared a land border with Turkey, just went a fraction too far South.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,966

    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    Too far South West and 160 miles out - which ironical is closer than Mrs SSC often gets just driving to Southampton.
    End up in Israel ?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Neil said:

    Rexel56 said:

    If dictators are given the nod to carry on gassing children, so long as the Tories are politically damaged in the process then that's more important.

    You are too nice Rexel56 - the gassing of children is actually a bonus rather than collateral damage to the nasty lefties.
    You can't eat them after they've been gassed.... ruins the meat (say baby-eating tories)...
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    WelshBertie

    "I doubt even the greatest advertising genius could sell that one."

    The London ophthalmologist and his pretty English wife........


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9149710/Asma-Assad-is-the-good-wife-standing-by-her-bad-man.html
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone ended up bombing Lebanon or Israel yet ?

    I didn't notice the zoom function, guessed and I think bombed Qatar instead.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Plato said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone ended up bombing Lebanon or Israel yet ?

    I didn't notice the zoom function, guessed and I think bombed Qatar instead.
    Risky. Lot of natural gas there, so the resulting explosion would leave a crater between Jeddah and Tehran.

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Times of London @thetimes
    Co-operative Group in deeper trouble as it announces saying the business has plunged to a £709 million loss thetim.es/1fkSRze
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    Bugger - 11 miles away. Within 10 would have been acceptable !!

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Anorak said:

    Plato said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone ended up bombing Lebanon or Israel yet ?

    I didn't notice the zoom function, guessed and I think bombed Qatar instead.
    Risky. Lot of natural gas there, so the resulting explosion would leave a crater between Jeddah and Tehran.

    Call it modern art. That'll give me a column to write in the Guardian.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    It wouldn't surprise me if labour will be on plus 10 point leads again after camerons old grand duke of York performance over Syria.

    He had miliband been Questioned on his leadership by his own party,now he be proberly cheered at the party conference.

    Cameron ran away with him self over Syria and should have been more cautious like where we our now on the matter knowing he was also in coalition without a con majority.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,971
    Seems the word of the day regarding Syria is "amusing"
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    Too far South West and 160 miles out - which ironical is closer than Mrs SSC often gets just driving to Southampton.
    End up in Israel ?
    I don’t think so, Mr Pulpstar: Mrs SSC normally ends up stuck on the ring road around Andover. – As far as I’m aware, she has never actually left the country on one of her excursions…!

  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Anorak said:

    Plato said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone ended up bombing Lebanon or Israel yet ?

    I didn't notice the zoom function, guessed and I think bombed Qatar instead.
    Risky. Lot of natural gas there, so the resulting explosion would leave a crater between Jeddah and Tehran.

    Might be an improvement to the region...
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Find Damascus on a map quiz http://toys.usvsth3m.com/damascus/

    Too far South West and 160 miles out - which ironical is closer than Mrs SSC often gets just driving to Southampton.
    End up in Israel ?
    I don’t think so, Mr Pulpstar: Mrs SSC normally ends up stuck on the ring road around Andover. – As far as I’m aware, she has never actually left the country on one of her excursions…!

    Don't you need a satnav to end up in another country by accident?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    John O has already tried the "Damascus Test" by train and finished up in Arbroath - nice kippers though !!
  • Options
    JackW said:

    John O has already tried the "Damascus Test" by train and finished up in Arbroath - nice kippers though !!

    John's never going to live that is down.

    I take the blame for his sojourn to Bournemouth.

    He was clearly dazzled by meeting me and my epilepsly inducing shoes
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    I'm always surprised wealthy Arab countries don't spend more on PR. If they only understood the sheer weight that is given to public opinion Assad could now be everyone's favourite optician.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    John O has already tried the "Damascus Test" by train and finished up in Arbroath - nice kippers though !!

    John's never going to live that is down.

    I take the blame for his sojourn to Bournemouth.

    He was clearly dazzled by meeting me and my epilepsly inducing shoes
    Let's hope that neither you or John O in a previous incarnation had much to do with allied missile guidance intelligence or we might end up bombing Port Talbot and Carlisle !!

  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Roger said:

    If they only understood the sheer weight that is given to public opinion Assad could now be everyone's favourite optician.

    He's clearly dazzled you, Roger.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Roger said:

    I'm always surprised wealthy Arab countries don't spend more on PR. If they only understood the sheer weight that is given to public opinion Assad could now be everyone's favourite optician.

    Yep..lets do a charm offensive on how we treat women, and gays, and Christians, and other muslims who believe in the sky fairy in a slightly different way....
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    John O has already tried the "Damascus Test" by train and finished up in Arbroath - nice kippers though !!

    John's never going to live that is down.

    I take the blame for his sojourn to Bournemouth.

    He was clearly dazzled by meeting me and my epilepsly inducing shoes
    Let's hope that neither you or John O in a previous incarnation had much to do with allied missile guidance intelligence or we might end up bombing Port Talbot and Carlisle !!

    And what would the downside be?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Afternoon all :)

    As ever I try to improve myself by absorbing wisdom and relying on Avery to brush up my Latin which seemed to be more in vino veritas than cogito ergo sum on the Friday nights of my youth.

    A manager for whom I used to work used to exhort us by saying we were all "single points of success". I begin to suspect that the truth is we were single points of failure.

    Ah well...

    So we await the UN Inspectors Report and IF they conclude chemical weapons were used, what then? Avery suggested to me last evening that the UN Resolution would include a demand for all chemical weapons to be located and destroyed under UN supervision with military action to enforce this as a penalty for non-compliance.

    I don't have any problem with that as a form of words. I would have liked to have seen a greater emphasis on the humanitarian aspect with, for example, a demand to allow the safe passage of non-combatants out of cities like Aleppo and the provision of camps along and outside the Syrian border under UN jurisdiction but there you go.

    The problem with the form of words is a) how long do we give both sides in Syria to identify their chemical munitions and the means for manufacturing them (assuming it's not just the Assad regime that has the means) and b) what form will the action to enforce non-compliance really take ?

    In 1990, the world united behind the resolution to force Saddam Hussein and his forces to leave Iraq but there was no resolution to topple Saddam then and no mandate to do so.

    There is no mandate to topple Assad now either but there is a possibility of a mandate to prevent the future use of chemical weapons in this conflict (and I don't need SeanT to point out how ludicrous that sounds either).

    I fear that until and unless Putin is persuaded (or cajoled as you catch more flies with honey than with flypaper) to either abandon Assad or force him to the negotiating table, the likelihood of some form of military intervention in Syria remains.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Roger said:

    I'm always surprised wealthy Arab countries don't spend more on PR. If they only understood the sheer weight that is given to public opinion Assad could now be everyone's favourite optician.

    Yep..lets do a charm offensive on how we treat women, and gays, and Christians, and other muslims who believe in the sky fairy in a slightly different way....
    LOL - but we have lots of money. And Qatar will host the World Cup in 50C but in air-conditioned stadiums [stadia?] using green technology - so that's alright then.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Neil said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    John O has already tried the "Damascus Test" by train and finished up in Arbroath - nice kippers though !!

    John's never going to live that is down.

    I take the blame for his sojourn to Bournemouth.

    He was clearly dazzled by meeting me and my epilepsly inducing shoes
    Let's hope that neither you or John O in a previous incarnation had much to do with allied missile guidance intelligence or we might end up bombing Port Talbot and Carlisle !!

    And what would the downside be?
    I plead the fifth !!

  • Options
    RandomRandom Posts: 107
    MBoy said:

    Does anyone know why no one in Govt appears to be talking about using United Nations General Assembly resolution 377 (the "Uniting for Peace" resolution) if Russia vetoes, as this is exactly the scenario it was created for. (It wasnt possible for Iraq, because most of the world was against for obvious reasons, and the vote would have lost).

    It's presumably because General Assembly resolutions have no legal weight, even in theory. Whereas a Security Council resolution is supposed to be binding on all members of the UN, GA resolutions aren't even binding on the countries that vote for them. It's why Britain gets away with ignoring all the GA resolutions calling for negotiations over sovereignity of the Falklands.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Dan Hodges in his Telegraph Blog - The truth about the Syria vote: Miliband changed his mind

    "The No 10 version of events is as follows. There was a meeting between Cameron and Miliband yesterday afternoon to finalise the two leaders' positions. Miliband indicated he would support the Government, but required – according to Whitehall sources – what he said was a “UN moment” to ensure diplomatic avenues had not been exhausted before any military action. The Prime Minister concurred, and said he had already drafted a resolution to be presented to the P5, although it was clear Russia and China would almost certainly veto it. Downing Street said Miliband indicated that he backed the approach, and crucially, made no mention at that time of any UN weapons inspectors report. The meeting concluded with apparent agreement.

    Then, at 5:15, David Cameron took a call from Ed Miliband in which Miliband said that he would now be unable to support the Government until the UN weapons inspectors report had been published, and if the Government pushed ahead with the motion as tabled his party would vote against.

    Ed Miliband’s team’s version of events is somewhat different. They insist that the Labour leader was clear at all times that he found the use of chemical weapons abhorrent, but that any military response had to, at a minimum, be conducted on “a solid legal basis”. There had to be “compelling evidence” and the case for action would “rest upon the UN”. They are, however, more guarded about the details of what was actually communicated in the meeting. When I specifically asked if Miliband had raised the issue of UN weapons inspectors prior to his 5:15 call, they said they would not discuss the details of private discussions.

    But a shadow cabinet source I spoke to was clear that Miliband’s stance had indeed changed significantly during the course of yesterday. “Something definitely shifted”, they said. Miliband had, in their words, “come to an agreement” with Cameron to support military intervention and the Labour statement that was being drafted for the debate was “closely aligned” with the Government’s position. “Our position was supportive”, he added. What’s significant is that the person I spoke to actually agreed with the subsequent shift of stance. “I actually think we’re in a good place now,” he said."
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351

    Well, I missed Damascus by quite a bit but probably took out the rebel positions.

    Is that good enough?
  • Options
    Re Miliband:

    'The French hate him now and he’s got no chance of building an alliance with the US Democratic Party,' the source added.

    So he can't be all bad then.
  • Options
    New Thread
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    8 miles from Damascus. Those hours spent playing geoguessr were useful for something.
  • Options
    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    As you are all so good at Middle East geography, would anyone like 4 weeks in the sun in October, all expenses paid, sea-front 5 Star hotel and private beach.

    Just had a long call from a client who wants a job done in October - and our diary is quite full. Destination: Tel Aviv. Any volunteers - thought not.
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited August 2013
    @tim

    Immigration is all perceptions anyway.

    I don't know why the Tories set themselves such a high bar.

    "Getting a grip" would satisfying enough people enough.

    Also the fall in immigration might have an effect on perceptions, even if net migration rises.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    tim said:

    No PB Tories commenting on the rise in net migration today?

    Good day to bury bad news, clearly.

  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Cameron says" he simply wants to deter Assad from using this stuff in future. But that is simply not credible. Bombing the regime would obviously be interpreted by Syria and its allies as a change in the status of our involvement"

    Ian Martin is correct about this.
This discussion has been closed.