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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Its 5/4 at Ladbrokes that there’ll be no deal on Brexit

2

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    edited October 2017
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I bet the client vote weren't too happy at the Tory manifesto earlier this year. They'd be more happy with Labour's.. retaining the triple lock, no dementia tax...
    Now also the Tories too
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The wording of this bet makes the 5/4 unattractive.

    There might barely be value in the 5/1 on another referendum before the end of 2019. I'm not betting on it but I'd make it about a 4/1 shot at present.
  • From another PB.

    >> Bolton v Badger <<
    Rumble in the brambles

    In 2009, as part of a reader Q&A, the Brighton Argus asked David Cameron who he thought would win in a fight between a baboon and a badger. Unsurprisingly, Cameron ducked it – but now there's a hot new question at the centre of cross-species political pugilism.

    UKIP leader Henry Bolton has been bragging this last week that he could kill a badger with his bare hands. Which prompts the question: Who would win in a fight between a Bolton and a badger?

    We asked our resident countryside expert for their opinion on the bout.

    "Every bit of a badger is over-engineered and unusually strong: bones, teeth, even skin. There are many stories of bullets bouncing off their skulls, cars hitting them at 30mph with seemingly no effect etc. They are also extremely fighty when threatened. There's a reason farmers go after them with guns and don't just punch them to get them to leave.

    "I reckon in hand-to-paw combat any UKIP member would get savagely bitten – and hopefully die of sepsis."
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    The wording of this bet makes the 5/4 unattractive.

    There might barely be value in the 5/1 on another referendum before the end of 2019. I'm not betting on it but I'd make it about a 4/1 shot at present.

    It's certainly better value than the betfair exchange price of about 11/2 for another referendum by the end of 2018!
  • I believe in estate agent terminology this would be described as an upcoming and coming area....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4997038/The-ruins-Raqqa-Shocking-images-devastation.html

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I hate to sound obtuse, but what is that article saying that is not entirely obvious? "There has been plenty of research on differences between rich and poor countries, gaps in prosperity within countries, and even how to improve productivity within individual businesses. But there is no consensus on what governments can do to improve their citizens’ lot in life, in the aggregate. Most differences seem to be attributable to history, geography, and culture rather than identifiable policy choices." Well, bugger me, economics is really complicated and governments cannot usefully pass a Make the Economy Grow at 3% Real Terms a Year for Ever Act. Who knew?

    I also don't see the connection with the tory "butter up the elderly" strategy; what you say is largely true, but the strategy has been maxed out. "Doubling down on it" will bring in comparatively few additional oldie votes at the cost of losing, or rather not winning, those of the rest of the population.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,418
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    To pay £65 billion to the EU or not to pay £65 billion to the EU? That is the question for May and Corbyn and the price of any FTA deal.

    She'll pay it in the end.

    5/4 are bad odds on No Deal.
    If she does I think it will tip enough Leaver Tory MPs into backing a vote of no confidence. A new Tory leader from the Leave camp, probably Boris or Davis, may then go to the country for a mandate for no deal.
    Mm, another back my version of Brexit GE? That should work.
    If Corbyn wants to pay £65 billion let him, even if he somehow manages to form a government post election I doubt it would be with much of a mandate and reliant on SNP and LD support.
    As time goes on that scenario plays better than the current spell of inertia. Yes Corbyn is PM but with his wings clipped by wee Jimmy and Uncle Vince is fast becoming more attractive than Boris or Davis's vision of Brexit and beyond.
    A Corbyn government propped up by Nicola and Vince. There are worse prospects for the Tories than that
    I agree, and for the rest of us!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508

    I believe in estate agent terminology this would be described as an upcoming and coming area....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4997038/The-ruins-Raqqa-Shocking-images-devastation.html

    Boris will be tweeting about the tourist opportunities shortly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I bet the client vote weren't too happy at the Tory manifesto earlier this year. They'd be more happy with Labour's.. retaining the triple lock, no dementia tax...
    Not if they haven't drawn down their pension and the whole lot is in the stock market :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    F1: Alonso's staying at McLaren:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/41684310
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I also don't see the connection with the tory "butter up the elderly" strategy; what you say is largely true, but the strategy has been maxed out. "Doubling down on it" will bring in comparatively few additional oldie votes at the cost of losing, or rather not winning, those of the rest of the population.
    All they have to do is consolidate the older vote to win back and retain their majority. The over 50's. The pensioners and the can't-wait-to-retirees. It's the most viable electoral coalition for them. Embrace the "pensioners party" thang.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited October 2017

    I believe in estate agent terminology this would be described as an upcoming and coming area....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4997038/The-ruins-Raqqa-Shocking-images-devastation.html

    Boris will be tweeting about the tourist opportunities shortly.
    Ch4 could get in on the act, Kristy and Phil could do a Location, Location, Location special, plus a whole series of A Place in the Sun...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508

    I believe in estate agent terminology this would be described as an upcoming and coming area....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4997038/The-ruins-Raqqa-Shocking-images-devastation.html

    Boris will be tweeting about the tourist opportunities shortly.
    Ch4 could get in on the act, Kristy and Phil could do a Location, Location, Location special, plus a whole series of A Place in the Sun...
    It's certainly sunny!!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I hate to sound obtuse, but what is that article saying that is not entirely obvious? "There has been plenty of research on differences between rich and poor countries, gaps in prosperity within countries, and even how to improve productivity within individual businesses. But there is no consensus on what governments can do to improve their citizens’ lot in life, in the aggregate. Most differences seem to be attributable to history, geography, and culture rather than identifiable policy choices." Well, bugger me, economics is really complicated and governments cannot usefully pass a Make the Economy Grow at 3% Real Terms a Year for Ever Act. Who knew?

    I also don't see the connection with the tory "butter up the elderly" strategy; what you say is largely true, but the strategy has been maxed out. "Doubling down on it" will bring in comparatively few additional oldie votes at the cost of losing, or rather not winning, those of the rest of the population.
    An interesting post probably because the same general thoughts about history geography and culture in another context have been occurring to me. I just watched a film called Victoria and Abdul directed by Stephen Frears and it was not only laden with stereotypes but the inadvertent racism within the film while purporting to be about racism and the aristocracy could only be explained by Stephen Frears existing prejudices. Most of his films have similar themes and most veer towards caricature But the result in this case was an uncomfortable watch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    edited October 2017
    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    edited October 2017
    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    Others (used to) write Lacan-inspired verbiage for Vice...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Until he gets fired because GS is being beaten up by JP
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,822
    Charles said:

    Until he gets fired because GS is being beaten up by JP
    JP Morgan are being advised by Blair, so they know Brexit isn't happening. ;)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,214
    Completely O/T but one of my favourite sites, http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ now has the same for the French NG.

    What I have noticed is that the French demand is fairly consistently 20% more than ours. I appreciate France is a much bigger country and no doubt their wastage in transmission will exceed ours by a considerable margin but their economy is roughly the same size as is their population. What makes their energy consumption so much higher than ours?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110
    edited October 2017
    Pong said:
    Can't see it
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but one of my favourite sites, http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ now has the same for the French NG.

    What I have noticed is that the French demand is fairly consistently 20% more than ours. I appreciate France is a much bigger country and no doubt their wastage in transmission will exceed ours by a considerable margin but their economy is roughly the same size as is their population. What makes their energy consumption so much higher than ours?

    Could be TGV, or more general manufacturing - especially metal extraction, eg aluminium melting, arc furnaces.

    Does this include the electricity they sell to neighbouring countries?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited October 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,375
    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but one of my favourite sites, http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ now has the same for the French NG.

    What I have noticed is that the French demand is fairly consistently 20% more than ours. I appreciate France is a much bigger country and no doubt their wastage in transmission will exceed ours by a considerable margin but their economy is roughly the same size as is their population. What makes their energy consumption so much higher than ours?

    In the summer they will have a significant power demand for a/c. Maybe they have more electric domestic heating than in the UK too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,880
    Roger said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I hate to sound obtuse, but what is that article saying that is not entirely obvious? "There has been plenty of research on differences between rich and poor countries, gaps in prosperity within countries, and even how to improve productivity within individual businesses. But there is no consensus on what governments can do to improve their citizens’ lot in life, in the aggregate. Most differences seem to be attributable to history, geography, and culture rather than identifiable policy choices." Well, bugger me, economics is really complicated and governments cannot usefully pass a Make the Economy Grow at 3% Real Terms a Year for Ever Act. Who knew?

    I also don't see the connection with the tory "butter up the elderly" strategy; what you say is largely true, but the strategy has been maxed out. "Doubling down on it" will bring in comparatively few additional oldie votes at the cost of losing, or rather not winning, those of the rest of the population.
    An interesting post probably because the same general thoughts about history geography and culture in another context have been occurring to me. I just watched a film called Victoria and Abdul directed by Stephen Frears and it was not only laden with stereotypes but the inadvertent racism within the film while purporting to be about racism and the aristocracy could only be explained by Stephen Frears existing prejudices. Most of his films have similar themes and most veer towards caricature But the result in this case was an uncomfortable watch.
    The redeeming feature was Judi Dench’s performance.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited October 2017
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017
    TOPPING said:

    Pong said:
    Can't see it
    "You're far safer sticking to bitcoin, imo."
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    Roger said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I hate to sound obtuse, but what is that article saying that is not entirely obvious? "There has been plenty of research on differences between rich and poor countries, gaps in prosperity within countries, and even how to improve productivity within individual businesses. But there is no consensus on what governments can do to improve their citizens’ lot in life, in the aggregate. Most differences seem to be attributable to history, geography, and culture rather than identifiable policy choices." Well, bugger me, economics is really complicated and governments cannot usefully pass a Make the Economy Grow at 3% Real Terms a Year for Ever Act. Who knew?

    I also don't see the connection with the tory "butter up the elderly" strategy; what you say is largely true, but the strategy has been maxed out. "Doubling down on it" will bring in comparatively few additional oldie votes at the cost of losing, or rather not winning, those of the rest of the population.
    An interesting post probably because the same general thoughts about history geography and culture in another context have been occurring to me. I just watched a film called Victoria and Abdul directed by Stephen Frears and it was not only laden with stereotypes but the inadvertent racism within the film while purporting to be about racism and the aristocracy could only be explained by Stephen Frears existing prejudices. Most of his films have similar themes and most veer towards caricature But the result in this case was an uncomfortable watch.
    The redeeming feature was Judi Dench’s performance.
    Yes to a point but what was someone as socially conscious as JD doing getting involved in such a load of crap?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,144
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    (snip)

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    Something was said the other day about a policy to nationalise housing (don't know whether it was a spoof).

    I'd be open to something really radical to tackle the housing 'problem', although there are so many factors involved I can't see it happening.

    Say the state takes ownership of my housing. If it does, then the state will have to pick up the tab for my care in later life. Bit of a gamble whether the state comes out of it for gain or for loss.

    Good evening, everyone.
  • Why do I get the feeling in the next few days Mike or myself will be writing a thread about Donald Trump slagging off Lewis Hamilton.

    To kneel or not to kneel? Lewis Hamilton faces decision before US GP

    The championship leader is considering kneeling during the US national anthem on Sunday but F1 and politics have never been comfortable bedfellows


    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/oct/19/kneel-lewis-hamilton-us-gp-f1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,508

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but one of my favourite sites, http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ now has the same for the French NG.

    What I have noticed is that the French demand is fairly consistently 20% more than ours. I appreciate France is a much bigger country and no doubt their wastage in transmission will exceed ours by a considerable margin but their economy is roughly the same size as is their population. What makes their energy consumption so much higher than ours?

    In the summer they will have a significant power demand for a/c. Maybe they have more electric domestic heating than in the UK too.
    Paris is the City of Light n'est-ce pas?
  • Why do I get the feeling in the next few days Mike or myself will be writing a thread about Donald Trump slagging off Lewis Hamilton.

    To kneel or not to kneel? Lewis Hamilton faces decision before US GP

    The championship leader is considering kneeling during the US national anthem on Sunday but F1 and politics have never been comfortable bedfellows


    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/oct/19/kneel-lewis-hamilton-us-gp-f1

    Failing Formula 1 Driver.....SAD....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. 1000, indeed, I agree.

    Ruling out no deal means accepting any deal, which is why Starmer's opportunism is so ridiculous.

    No it doesn't. It shows you are serious about doing a deal. Pretending otherwise is simply disrespectful.

  • sladeslade Posts: 2,091
    Yes to a point but what was someone as socially conscious as JD doing getting involved in such a load of crap?
    Roger said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    I hate to sound obtuse, but what is that article saying that is not entirely obvious? "There has been plenty of research on differences between rich and poor countries, gaps in prosperity within countries, and even how to improve productivity within individual businesses. But there is no consensus on what governments can do to improve their citizens’ lot in life, in the aggregate. Most differences seem to be attributable to history, geography, and culture rather than identifiable policy choices." Well, bugger me, economics is really complicated and governments cannot usefully pass a Make the Economy Grow at 3% Real Terms a Year for Ever Act. Who knew?

    I also don't see the connection with the tory "butter up the elderly" strategy; what you say is largely true, but the strategy has been maxed out. "Doubling down on it" will bring in comparatively few additional oldie votes at the cost of losing, or rather not winning, those of the rest of the population.
    An interesting post probably because the same general thoughts about history geography and culture in another context have been occurring to me. I just watched a film called Victoria and Abdul directed by Stephen Frears and it was not only laden with stereotypes but the inadvertent racism within the film while purporting to be about racism and the aristocracy could only be explained by Stephen Frears existing prejudices. Most of his films have similar themes and most veer towards caricature But the result in this case was an uncomfortable watch.
    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,144

    Why do I get the feeling in the next few days Mike or myself will be writing a thread about Donald Trump slagging off Lewis Hamilton.

    To kneel or not to kneel? Lewis Hamilton faces decision before US GP

    The championship leader is considering kneeling during the US national anthem on Sunday but F1 and politics have never been comfortable bedfellows


    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2017/oct/19/kneel-lewis-hamilton-us-gp-f1

    Off the top of my head, I'd say it's one thing to do that for one's own national anthem but quite another to do it to that of another country.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Eagles, there was murmuring about that some time ago from Hamilton.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    edited October 2017
    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,633
    Pong said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pong said:
    Can't see it
    "You're far safer sticking to bitcoin, imo."
    The unbelievable thing is, the publicly owned Channel 4 aided and abetted this crap. On one of the "Rich kids go shopping" episodes, they featured this chap http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3383759/University-dropout-stockbroker-spends-150-000-supercars.html who instead of having a bright bulb startup idea or inherited wealth, errm 'traded' an hour a day or so to make ~ £80,000 a month or so he claimed...

    http://www.dcttradingexposed.com/ !
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,375

    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    Most Germans can.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but one of my favourite sites, http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ now has the same for the French NG.

    What I have noticed is that the French demand is fairly consistently 20% more than ours. I appreciate France is a much bigger country and no doubt their wastage in transmission will exceed ours by a considerable margin but their economy is roughly the same size as is their population. What makes their energy consumption so much higher than ours?

    In the summer they will have a significant power demand for a/c. Maybe they have more electric domestic heating than in the UK too.
    Paris is the City of Light n'est-ce pas?
    That's Blackpool mate. Show some patriotism!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    What do PBers think would happen if TMay decided to go for the No Deal option and call a commons vote on it a confidence matter? Would she (and the government) go down to a Tory Remain rebellion?

    Why would you call a confidence motion on that?

    It's neither politically expedient, nor practically helpful.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    When will German car manufacturers force Merkel to give us a good deal?

    They are cutting it fine.

    TMerkel is in trouble

    she needs a deal as much as TMay
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,336
    edited October 2017
    Well this was a successful attack line during the general election

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/920963885909336064
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763
    Mortimer said:

    What do PBers think would happen if TMay decided to go for the No Deal option and call a commons vote on it a confidence matter? Would she (and the government) go down to a Tory Remain rebellion?

    Why would you call a confidence motion on that?

    It's neither politically expedient, nor practically helpful.
    Especially if you lose.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    When will German car manufacturers force Merkel to give us a good deal?

    They are cutting it fine.

    TMerkel is in trouble

    she needs a deal as much as TMay
    Chuckle.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    When will German car manufacturers force Merkel to give us a good deal?

    They are cutting it fine.

    TMerkel is in trouble

    she needs a deal as much as TMay
    Keep dreaming!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    Most Germans can.
    LOL

    excellent
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    There would have been no Brexit if she was alive.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Jonathan said:

    When will German car manufacturers force Merkel to give us a good deal?

    They are cutting it fine.

    TMerkel is in trouble

    she needs a deal as much as TMay
    Chuckle.
    Angela Merkel is only separated from Theresa May by 6 months

    shes in trouble
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    We should have prepared for "No Deal", down to having published what our tariff schedules will like, before even triggering Article 50.

    And how does 'preparing for no deal' manifest itself in Northern Ireland?
    Nothing on the British side.

    If the EU want to ask Dublin to build a fence then that is their look out.

    I suggest as they haven't started already then the EU isn't preparing properly for a no deal exit.

  • slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    Most Germans can.
    Captain Darling: Look, I'm as British as Queen Victoria!
    Captain Blackadder: So your father's German, you're half-German and you married a German?!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but one of my favourite sites, http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ now has the same for the French NG.

    What I have noticed is that the French demand is fairly consistently 20% more than ours. I appreciate France is a much bigger country and no doubt their wastage in transmission will exceed ours by a considerable margin but their economy is roughly the same size as is their population. What makes their energy consumption so much higher than ours?

    Their non-financial economy is much bigger than ours. Only our financial sector makes us roughly the same size.

    Therefore, their electricity [ energy ] consumption would be higher.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    surbiton said:

    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    There would have been no Brexit if she was alive.
    ROFL

    explain our policy of splendid isolation then
  • surbiton said:

    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    There would have been no Brexit if she was alive.
    ROFL

    explain our policy of splendid isolation then
    She'd have kept India British, over one billion remain voters just like that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763

    Jonathan said:

    When will German car manufacturers force Merkel to give us a good deal?

    They are cutting it fine.

    TMerkel is in trouble

    she needs a deal as much as TMay
    Chuckle.
    Angela Merkel is only separated from Theresa May by 6 months

    shes in trouble
    This might rock your world, but Brexit is less important in Germany than Britain. Merkel may well be in trouble, but Brexit won't help her.

    To be fair it won't help May either, but that's because she's rubbish.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    surbiton said:

    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    There would have been no Brexit if she was alive.
    ROFL

    explain our policy of splendid isolation then
    She'd have kept India British, over one billion remain voters just like that.
    sheesh and you spend your days accusing leavers of living in the past

    Das Reich ist kaputt as she would have told Albert
  • surbiton said:

    slade said:

    The main question I had about the film was could Victoria speak and write Urdu?

    Yes she could.

    She was multilingual, she could speak German too.
    There would have been no Brexit if she was alive.
    ROFL

    explain our policy of splendid isolation then
    She'd have kept India British, over one billion remain voters just like that.
    sheesh and you spend your days accusing leavers of living in the past

    Das Reich ist kaputt as she would have told Albert
    I'm pro Empire and proud.

    I still maintain our biggest mistake post second world war was not joining the EC/Coal and steel thingy from the start.

    We're good at empire building.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    When will German car manufacturers force Merkel to give us a good deal?

    They are cutting it fine.

    TMerkel is in trouble

    she needs a deal as much as TMay
    Chuckle.
    Angela Merkel is only separated from Theresa May by 6 months

    shes in trouble
    This might rock your world, but Brexit is less important in Germany than Britain. Merkel may well be in trouble, but Brexit won't help her.

    To be fair it won't help May either, but that's because she's rubbish.
    It wont rock my world in the least, unlike yourself I look at what is happening around me and dont get fixated on the anoraks prism of Brexit.

    You need a break
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    edited October 2017
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents ily.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    I said parents AND grandparents want to help their children as many 20 and 30 year olds now get the deposit to buy their first house or flat from an inheritance they receive from their grandparents. Of course if you are a couple you may get an inheritance from 4 sets of grandparents and 2 sets of parents negating the impact of sharing it with siblings. The dementia tax has now been scrapped exempting the home from assessment for personal care costs and the £23k of assets before care costs payment guarantee may yet rise to £100k.

    A house price crash may not be much help, banks would lend less and existing home owners enter negative equity.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610

    Well this was a successful attack line during the general election

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/920963885909336064

    Corbyn backed hard Brexit at the last general election ie leaving the single market and ending free movement , so effectively neutralised the issue.

    Though if he agrees to pay £65 billion to the EU for a FTA that may reopen it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Leave.EU were a fringe group that were on the right side of the result despite their actions...
  • Danny565 said:

    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.

    On that thread, when someone asked 'Will George Osborne stand again?'

    I replied with

    I'm hearing rumours he might not stand.

    I've gone all Queen Victoria after Albert died.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents ily.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    I said parents AND grandparents want to help their children as many 20 and 30 year olds now get the deposit to buy their first house or flat from an inheritance they receive from their grandparents. Of course if you are a couple you may get an inheritance from 4 sets of grandparents and 2 sets of parents negating the impact of sharing it with siblings. The dementia tax has now been scrapped exempting the home from assessment for personal care costs and the £23k of assets before care costs payment guarantee may yet rise to £100k.

    A house price crash may not be much help, banks would lend less and existing home owners enter negative equity.
    Though we do need to build more affordable housing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Danny565 said:

    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.

    :)

    A few months ago I did the same for the overnight Brexit day threads!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents ily.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    I said parents AND grandparents want to help their children as many 20 and 30 year olds now get the deposit to buy their first house or flat from an inheritance they receive from their grandparents. Of course if you are a couple you may get an inheritance from 4 sets of grandparents and 2 sets of parents negating the impact of sharing it with siblings. The dementia tax has now been scrapped exempting the home from assessment for personal care costs and the £23k of assets before care costs payment guarantee may yet rise to £100k.

    A house price crash may not be much help, banks would lend less and existing home owners enter negative equity.
    Though we do need to build more affordable housing.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/style/can-micro-flats-solve-britains-housing-crisis/

  • Danny565 said:

    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.

    What a time to be alive!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.

    Let's not forget about this PB thread from June last year:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/24/the-results-so-far-have-developed-not-necessarily-to-remains-advantage/

    "rcs1000 Posts: 19,751
    June 2016
    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    edited October 2017
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    Interesting economics paper picked up by ft alphaville;

    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/10/19/2194996/is-growing-the-pie-overrated-and-does-that-explain-why-everything-is-terrible/

    The tory approach - to impose austerity on the young and the poor while transferring wealth from them to their client vote through the housing market is a rather smart electoral strategy.

    They can win the next election if they double down on it.

    Fu*king terrifying if you're a young/poor/non-homeowner.

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents ily.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    I said parents AND grandparents want to help their children as many 20 and 30 year olds now get the quity.
    Though we do need to build more affordable housing.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/style/can-micro-flats-solve-britains-housing-crisis/

    Excellent idea and we need more high-rise developments in urban areas too.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.

    Let's not forget about this PB thread from June last year:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/24/the-results-so-far-have-developed-not-necessarily-to-remains-advantage/

    "rcs1000 Posts: 19,751
    June 2016
    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time."
    Your finest hour so far, sir.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.

    Let's not forget about this PB thread from June last year:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/24/the-results-so-far-have-developed-not-necessarily-to-remains-advantage/

    "rcs1000 Posts: 19,751
    June 2016
    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time."
    And I got the final result (52:48) right very early on. (Pats own back.)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Just had quite a fun half-hour reading through the PB thread on the morning May called the election.

    Let's not forget about this PB thread from June last year:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/24/the-results-so-far-have-developed-not-necessarily-to-remains-advantage/

    "rcs1000 Posts: 19,751
    June 2016
    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time."
    And I got the final result (52:48) right very early on. (Pats own back.)
    Mine too - only £1200, but very pleased to get 15/1 as polls closed.

  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    surbiton said:

    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T but one of my favourite sites, http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ now has the same for the French NG.

    What I have noticed is that the French demand is fairly consistently 20% more than ours. I appreciate France is a much bigger country and no doubt their wastage in transmission will exceed ours by a considerable margin but their economy is roughly the same size as is their population. What makes their energy consumption so much higher than ours?

    Their non-financial economy is much bigger than ours. Only our financial sector makes us roughly the same size.

    Therefore, their electricity [ energy ] consumption would be higher.
    Absolutely correct. Also, there is a history of industrial users paying very low power prices in France, subsidised by households. That was always much less the case in the UK even when we still had a lot of electricity-intensive industry. The EU has been trying for years to end the long term contracts guaranteeing low power prices in France and some other countries, without much success so far.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617

    Well this was a successful attack line during the general election

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/920963885909336064

    Out of the 7 faces fully visible in that picture, I count 5 have beards (and Livingstone had a moustache). Very indicative of the circles Jez moved in, as beards were very unfashionable in the early 80s.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HHemmelig said:


    Well this was a successful attack line during the general election

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/920963885909336064

    Out of the 7 faces fully visible in that picture, I count 5 have beards (and Livingstone had a moustache). Very indicative of the circles Jez moved in, as beards were very unfashionable in the early 80s.
    Robert Jones was the only Tory MP with a beard at the time, and apparently Maggie told him to shave it off. He refused.
  • HHemmelig said:


    Well this was a successful attack line during the general election

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/920963885909336064

    Out of the 7 faces fully visible in that picture, I count 5 have beards (and Livingstone had a moustache). Very indicative of the circles Jez moved in, as beards were very unfashionable in the early 80s.
    I'm sure that's Nick Timothy in that picture.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    AnneJGP said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    (snip)

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    Something was said the other day about a policy to nationalise housing (don't know whether it was a spoof).

    I'd be open to something really radical to tackle the housing 'problem', although there are so many factors involved I can't see it happening.

    Say the state takes ownership of my housing. If it does, then the state will have to pick up the tab for my care in later life. Bit of a gamble whether the state comes out of it for gain or for loss.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It would quickly become a major liability on the state. Not only would the state become liable for all maintenance and repairs, there would be no incentive for people to look after their houses.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,375
    HHemmelig said:


    Well this was a successful attack line during the general election

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/920963885909336064

    Out of the 7 faces fully visible in that picture, I count 5 have beards (and Livingstone had a moustache). Very indicative of the circles Jez moved in, as beards were very unfashionable in the early 80s.
    Hipsters ahead of their time.

    Looks like an advert for Man at C&A.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    Bernie Sanders has an early lead for the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary according to a new UNH poll.

    Sanders is on 31%, Biden 24% and Warren 13%.
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-leads-joe-biden-in-2020-new-hampshire-poll/article/2637949
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Bernie Sanders has an early lead for the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary according to a new UNH poll.

    Sanders is on 31%, Biden 24% and Warren 13%.
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-leads-joe-biden-in-2020-new-hampshire-poll/article/2637949

    Groundhog day.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,722
    HHemmelig said:

    AnneJGP said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    (snip)

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    Something was said the other day about a policy to nationalise housing (don't know whether it was a spoof).

    I'd be open to something really radical to tackle the housing 'problem', although there are so many factors involved I can't see it happening.

    Say the state takes ownership of my housing. If it does, then the state will have to pick up the tab for my care in later life. Bit of a gamble whether the state comes out of it for gain or for loss.

    Good evening, everyone.
    It would quickly become a major liability on the state. Not only would the state become liable for all maintenance and repairs, there would be no incentive for people to look after their houses.
    A crash in house prices wouldn't help young buyers, unless they had plenty of cash (which most people in their 20's don't).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bernie Sanders has an early lead for the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary according to a new UNH poll.

    Sanders is on 31%, Biden 24% and Warren 13%.
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-leads-joe-biden-in-2020-new-hampshire-poll/article/2637949

    Groundhog day.
    At the moment yes, with Biden taking the place of Hillary. Though this time Sanders also leads nationwide at present.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    AnneJGP said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    (snip)

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    Something was said the other day about a policy to nationalise housing (don't know whether it was a spoof).

    I'd be open to something really radical to tackle the housing 'problem', although there are so many factors involved I can't see it happening.

    Say the state takes ownership of my housing. If it does, then the state will have to pick up the tab for my care in later life. Bit of a gamble whether the state comes out of it for gain or for loss.

    Good evening, everyone.
    Bang goes most peoples' main asset overnight were housing to be nationalised.

    Of course the state currently picks up the tab for care anyway if you have assets under £23k (excluding your house in the case of personal care), maybe soon rising to £100k
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bernie Sanders has an early lead for the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary according to a new UNH poll.

    Sanders is on 31%, Biden 24% and Warren 13%.
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-leads-joe-biden-in-2020-new-hampshire-poll/article/2637949

    Groundhog day.
    At the moment yes, with Biden taking the place of Hillary. Though this time Sanders also leads nationwide at present.
    I don't think Sanders can defeat Trump. He might get close but not close enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bernie Sanders has an early lead for the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary according to a new UNH poll.

    Sanders is on 31%, Biden 24% and Warren 13%.
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-leads-joe-biden-in-2020-new-hampshire-poll/article/2637949

    Groundhog day.
    At the moment yes, with Biden taking the place of Hillary. Though this time Sanders also leads nationwide at present.
    I don't think Sanders can defeat Trump. He might get close but not close enough.
    Sanders currently leads Trump by 51% to 40% in the latest US poll. That is about double Corbyn's current lead over May in the last UK poll.

    Sanders would also go down far better in the key rustbelt swingstates than Hillary did.

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/2018-shaping-big-democrats/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,722
    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    (snip)

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    Something was said the other day about a policy to nationalise housing (don't know whether it was a spoof).

    I'd be open to something really radical to tackle the housing 'problem', although there are so many factors involved I can't see it happening.

    Say the state takes ownership of my housing. If it does, then the state will have to pick up the tab for my care in later life. Bit of a gamble whether the state comes out of it for gain or for loss.

    Good evening, everyone.
    Bang goes most peoples' main asset overnight were housing to be nationalised.

    Of course the state currently picks up the tab for care anyway if you have assets under £23k (excluding your house in the case of personal care), maybe soon rising to £100k
    I imagine that such a policy could only be imposed by using extreme violence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    edited October 2017
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    (snip)

    60% of the country are homeowners most of whose children and grandchildren will inherit that housing wealth thanks to Osborne's inheritance tax cut.

    Anyway Javid is already pushing a mass programme of building more affordable housing, even going beyond council's local plans to do so.
    You're not wrong that a few youngsters (esp only children) who have looked up the value of their parents house on zoopla and calculated their inheritance and go to bed every night hoping their parents don't wake up in the morning will vote tory.

    a few.
    It does not have to be that cynical but many parents and grandparents who are homeowners, especially in London, the South East and East, have built up a large nest egg particularly with rising house prices which they want to pass on to their children and grandchildren. It is called looking after your family.
    Of course it all depends whether they are happy to stay renting until their mid 60s when their parents in their mid 80s pass away - 30 or 40 years is a long wait if you have kids or want security of tenure. Living under the constsnt threat of being evicted at two months notice and relying on landlords to fix problems with your accommodation is no fun. By the time they inherit of course their kids will have grown up - too late too late!

    And that assumes your parents don't end up spending it all on their social care - and you are an only child so don't have to split the proceeds amongst siblings or multiple other grandkids.

    Rent privately for 40 years and then inherit - or own in your 20s and 30s post a Corbyn induced crash? I expect most would rather the latter option.
    Something was said the other day about a policy to nationalise housing (don't know whether it was a spoof).

    I'd be open to something really radical to tackle the housing 'problem', although there are so many factors involved I can't see it happening.

    Say the state takes ownership of my housing. If it does, then the state will have to pick up the tab for my care in later life. Bit of a gamble whether the state comes out of it for gain or for loss.

    Good evening, everyone.
    Bang goes most peoples' main asset overnight were housing to be nationalised.

    Of course the state currently picks up the tab for care anyway if you have assets under £23k (excluding your house in the case of personal care), maybe soon rising to £100k
    I imagine that such a policy could only be imposed by using extreme violence.
    It would mean a move towards a socialist state certainly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    I think it's highly unlikely that Bernie Sanders, who will be 79 at the time of the next US Presidential election, will even stand to be the Democratic nominee.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big question of the moment. How is it possible for Gibralter to have more than one football team?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.135666751
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763
    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's highly unlikely that Bernie Sanders, who will be 79 at the time of the next US Presidential election, will even stand to be the Democratic nominee.

    In a world of Trump,Brexit and Corbyn, what's normal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's highly unlikely that Bernie Sanders, who will be 79 at the time of the next US Presidential election, will even stand to be the Democratic nominee.

    Trump will be 74 in 2020 so I don't see why Sanders won't be able to run at 79. One of his closest associates has confirmed he is considering another run.
    https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/07/23/bernie-sanders-considering-a-2020-run/23043759/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's highly unlikely that Bernie Sanders, who will be 79 at the time of the next US Presidential election, will even stand to be the Democratic nominee.

    In a world of Trump,Brexit and Corbyn, what's normal?
    It may be Brexit and Trump will be followed by Corbyn and Sanders, anti immigration populism giving way to anti austerity and anti big business populism
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Americans prefer their politicians to be 80 rather than 40.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,610
    AndyJS said:

    Americans prefer their politicians to be 80 rather than 40.

    Not always, JFK and Clinton and Obama and Theodore Roosevelt all became President in their 40s. Paul Ryan is Speaker of the House at 47.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    AndyJS said:

    Big question of the moment. How is it possible for Gibralter to have more than one football team?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.135666751

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibraltar_Premier_Division

    10 clubs, one stadium, so everyone always has home advantage.

    "Gibraltar United" seems to be a misnomer.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:


    A crash in house prices wouldn't help young buyers, unless they had plenty of cash (which most people in their 20's don't).

    What? Thing being cheaper wouldn't help people wanting to buy it? That's a view I suppose.

    The national average used to be a house cost 3.5 times average salary 20 years ago, now it's 7.5 times.

    In London it's gone from 4 times salary to 12 times!
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bernie Sanders has an early lead for the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary according to a new UNH poll.

    Sanders is on 31%, Biden 24% and Warren 13%.
    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-leads-joe-biden-in-2020-new-hampshire-poll/article/2637949

    Groundhog day.
    At the moment yes, with Biden taking the place of Hillary. Though this time Sanders also leads nationwide at present.
    I don't think Sanders can defeat Trump. He might get close but not close enough.
    Sanders currently leads Trump by 51% to 40% in the latest US poll. That is about double Corbyn's current lead over May in the last UK poll.

    Sanders would also go down far better in the key rustbelt swingstates than Hillary did.

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/2018-shaping-big-democrats/
    The best Democrat candidate would be Seth Moulton, but he's already ruled himself out
This discussion has been closed.