Getting more interesting. Theresa May is clear that the two realistic options are unacceptable. Instead she will go for a "creative solution" aka "bugger if I know"
Getting more interesting. Theresa May is clear that the two realistic options are unacceptable. Instead she will go for a "creative solution" aka "bugger if I know"
I think the big problems here are not only that she's basically repeating the cake-and-eat-it position of Lancaster House, which has already got short shrift from our EU friends, but also that Barnier has a very good point when he says that there simply isn't time to negotiate some new bespoke arrangement.
Sky saying May May say that we will leave before 2019
But the act of doing that would cause some severe problems with regard to double taxation, unless other legislation was drafted first. The problem is that this stuff is complicated.
Is that right? I thought double taxation treaties are agreed between nation states, i.e. individual countries of the EU, not the EU itself.
Gone is the claim still made by ministers that in 2019 we are leaving the single market and customs union. Whatever the semantics, we now seek a transition for at least two years where we in effect remain inside that single market and the customs union.
Gone is the claim that we can tell the EU to “go whistle” when they ask us to pay up. The cabinet has made it known that it will cough up at least £20 billion for the privilege of leaving.
Gone is the assertion that freedom of movement will end when we leave. When this paper pointed out earlier this week that we would have to accept free movement as the condition of a transition, this was described as “completely delusional” by a Downing Street source. Today it is the official position of Downing Street’s occupants.
- Evening Standard
Fake news - she has said we are leaving the single market and customs union.
Sky saying May May say that we will leave before 2019
If no deal is going to be reached then it might be best to get it all over with now. What's the point of another 18 months of uncertainty (and endless remainer whinging) with the same result at the end?
As it stands, the government has eighteen months to recruit 3,000 customs officers and repaint the the M20 into a lorry park. If we just crash out it won't have had any time to do that.
And nor will they.
No one doubts that a crash out to WTO would be bad for the EU. But let's be honest, an unprepared crash out to WTO would be worse for us.
We are more dependent on EU trade than they are on UK trade. And I suspect it is easier to redirect the manufactured product they make to new markets than the bespoke services we're so good at.
Of course, if we decided on WTO as our choice of destination and spent the next two years building up to that, published our tariff schedules now, etc., then we'd probably do fine.
What would be a disaster for us would be if business spent the next 18 months working on the assumption there'll be a comprehensive FTA/multi year transitional period, and then at the last minute we crashed out to WTO.
Maybe you are using an American kettle - they are underpowered. We covered that this morning here on PB...
Back with me cuppa. 2300W kettle. John Lewis.
Ooh - neutral court suggestion. I said that too...
Just checked our trendy Bodum kettle - only 1500W but it is very fast... maybe because it's not that big but it's a jug within a jug, so effectively double-glazed.
No one doubts that a crash out to WTO would be bad for the EU. But let's be honest, an unprepared crash out to WTO would be worse for us.
We are more dependent on EU trade than they are on UK trade. And I suspect it is easier to redirect the manufactured product they make to new markets than the bespoke services we're so good at.
Of course, if we decided on WTO as our choice of destination and spent the next two years building up to that, published our tariff schedules now, etc., then we'd probably do fine.
What would be a disaster for us would be if business spent the next 18 months working on the assumption there'll be a comprehensive FTA/multi year transitional period, and then at the last minute we crashed out to WTO.
"You'll be making a grave error if you kill us. There are a quarter of a million Italians in Britain. And they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, café, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in London, Liverpool and Glasgow, will be smashed. Mr Davis will drive them into the sea."
Bold, creative, dynamic, comprehensive and ambitious relationship. She has got the buzzwords so that's dealt with. There is the small matter that all our treaties with the EU will lapse in 18 months. Nothing to worry about...
On topic. How could the Lib Dems gain the seat from Labour in Oadby when there was a swing to Labour? Because the figures used are the top votes for the parties in 2015 in a multi-seat ward. If you take the average vote in that election the changes in vote share are LD (+3.3), Lab (+1.1), and Con (-4.4). So the swing was 1.1 to Lib Dem.
"You'll be making a grave error if you kill us. There are a quarter of a million Italians in Britain. And they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, café, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in London, Liverpool and Glasgow, will be smashed. Mr Davis will drive them into the sea."
From an earlier draft of the speech.
*bangs cup against plate*
Nah that's the Greek restaurants not the Italians.
May is making absolutely clear that it will be impossible for the UK to negotiate FTAs until its future relationship with the EU is settled.
Of course that is right. You can hold some preliminary discussions to scope out the issues, but, yes, until both sides know what the EU relationship is going to be, you can't get very far.
"You'll be making a grave error if you kill us. There are a quarter of a million Italians in Britain. And they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, café, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in London, Liverpool and Glasgow, will be smashed. Mr Davis will drive them into the sea."
Maybe you are using an American kettle - they are underpowered. We covered that this morning here on PB...
Back with me cuppa. 2300W kettle. John Lewis.
Ooh - neutral court suggestion. I said that too...
Just checked our trendy Bodum kettle - only 1500W but it is very fast... maybe because it's not that big but it's a jug within a jug, so effectively double-glazed.
And the people who will be most annoyed will be women, especially young women. They LOVE Uber. It's cheap and makes them feel safe - much safer than normal cabs.
Sadiq Khan could lose squillions of voters here. Good.
And how many of those ladies realise that Uber have been failing to adequately carry out CRB checks and vetting & barring regulations? Regulations that exist to stop young ladies having a very bad end to their night out.
Does Uber have any worse record than, say, Swiss Cottage Cars? I suspect not. But Swiss Cottage Cars probably has 100 drivers on its radio circuit, and Uber has 30,000. In any selection of 30,000 men aged 18 to 50, you will have bad apples. Small sample sizes mean you'd perhaps hear of one story in five years about something bad happening at Swiss Cottage Cars, against 100 a year at Uber.
It doesn't mean Uber does a worse job vetting its drivers, or that it's more dangerous to ride in an Uber. It means that is simply a larger number of cars and drivers.
Surely it is reasonable for Swiss Cottage Cars to expect all its competitors, including Uber, to be held to comply with local regulations to the same extent it is?
That's my point. Local mini cab firms have these problems all the time. But because it's one driver out of 100, TfL renews their license without problem. (Rather than 100 out of 30,000.)
The requirements to be a mini cab driver and an Uber driver are identical. Uber is a mini cab firm.
But because of its success, and the fact that it is hammering black cabs, it is being targeted.
Maybe you are using an American kettle - they are underpowered. We covered that this morning here on PB...
Back with me cuppa. 2300W kettle. John Lewis.
Ooh - neutral court suggestion. I said that too...
Just checked our trendy Bodum kettle - only 1500W but it is very fast... maybe because it's not that big but it's a jug within a jug, so effectively double-glazed.
There's posh a double glazed kettle!
Yes - but surprisingly functional as well as meeting Mrs. Pointer's aesthetic criteria.
May is making absolutely clear that it will be impossible for the UK to negotiate FTAs until its future relationship with the EU is settled.
Of course that is right. You can hold some preliminary discussions to scope out the issues, but, yes, until both sides know what the EU relationship is going to be, you can't get very far.
So Liam Fox will not be agreeing any! We'll get out first ones in around 2026/7, if we're lucky. If we get the relationship with the EU May wants there'll be no deal with the US.
Gone is the claim still made by ministers that in 2019 we are leaving the single market and customs union. Whatever the semantics, we now seek a transition for at least two years where we in effect remain inside that single market and the customs union.
Gone is the claim that we can tell the EU to “go whistle” when they ask us to pay up. The cabinet has made it known that it will cough up at least £20 billion for the privilege of leaving.
Gone is the assertion that freedom of movement will end when we leave. When this paper pointed out earlier this week that we would have to accept free movement as the condition of a transition, this was described as “completely delusional” by a Downing Street source. Today it is the official position of Downing Street’s occupants.
- Evening Standard
Fake news - she has said we are leaving the single market and customs union.
Yes, one of those funny leaves. Everything will remain until 2021.
And the people who will be most annoyed will be women, especially young women. They LOVE Uber. It's cheap and makes them feel safe - much safer than normal cabs.
Sadiq Khan could lose squillions of voters here. Good.
And how many of those ladies realise that Uber have been failing to adequately carry out CRB checks and vetting & barring regulations? Regulations that exist to stop young ladies having a very bad end to their night out.
Does Uber have any worse record than, say, Swiss Cottage Cars? I suspect not. But Swiss Cottage Cars probably has 100 drivers on its radio circuit, and Uber has 30,000. In any selection of 30,000 men aged 18 to 50, you will have bad apples. Small sample sizes mean you'd perhaps hear of one story in five years about something bad happening at Swiss Cottage Cars, against 100 a year at Uber.
It doesn't mean Uber does a worse job vetting its drivers, or that it's more dangerous to ride in an Uber. It means that is simply a larger number of cars and drivers.
Surely it is reasonable for Swiss Cottage Cars to expect all its competitors, including Uber, to be held to comply with local regulations to the same extent it is?
That's my point. Local mini cab firms have these problems all the time. But because it's one driver out of 100, TfL renews their license without problem. (Rather than 100 out of 30,000.)
The requirements to be a mini cab driver and an Uber driver are identical. Uber is a mini cab firm.
But because of its success, and the fact that it is hammering black cabs, it is being targeted.
They've definitely broken the rules in many ways in many countries. And success is a funny way of describing a company that has lost more money than any other in history.
Maybe you are using an American kettle - they are underpowered. We covered that this morning here on PB...
Back with me cuppa. 2300W kettle. John Lewis.
Ooh - neutral court suggestion. I said that too...
Just checked our trendy Bodum kettle - only 1500W but it is very fast... maybe because it's not that big but it's a jug within a jug, so effectively double-glazed.
There's posh a double glazed kettle!
Yes - but surprisingly functional as well as meeting Mrs. Pointer's aesthetic criteria.
Mrs Owl's aesthetic criteria are by far the driver of purchase choice rather than wattage greeness or even glazing!
So Liam Fox will not be agreeing any! We'll get out first ones in around 2026/7, if we're lucky. If we get the relationship with the EU May wants there'll be no deal with the US.
Yes, Liam Fox will be tied up for years, I'm afraid. Try not to shed too many tears for him.
"You'll be making a grave error if you kill us. There are a quarter of a million Italians in Britain. And they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, café, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in London, Liverpool and Glasgow, will be smashed. Mr Davis will drive them into the sea."
From an earlier draft of the speech.
*bangs cup against plate*
Nah that's the Greek restaurants not the Italians.
The relevant allegations appear to be that Uber are not vetting its drivers well enough, or reacting well enough to reported incidents. If Swiss Cottage Cars has 100 drivers, it is easy for management to get to know them and hopefully weed out bad apples. It is probably impossible for Uber to get to know the 30,000 drivers.
It is very difficult to predict that someone with a clean record will commit a crime. It is somewhat easier to predict that someone with a long criminal record may commit future crimes. So the key things are to vet new drivers, and then, when someone with a clean record is accused of something, to react in a way that is fair to both accused and accuser.
It seems Uber are not doing this.
Having said that, I do wonder if Swiss Cottage Cabs or the black cabs are being treated to a different standard over this.
To become an Uber driver, just as to become a Swiss Cottage driver, you need:
- commercial vehicle insurance - a private hire license - a car
There is no difference. (And to get a private hire license you need to go to TfL who performs the criminal record check.)
Now; do some people get a private hire license, and then find themselves convicted of an offence and then forget to tell Uber (or Swiss Cottage Cars)?
Yes. Does it happen with any greater regularity with Uber than with other mini cab firms that get their licenses renews by TfL? I doubt it very much.
"You'll be making a grave error if you kill us. There are a quarter of a million Italians in Britain. And they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, café, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in London, Liverpool and Glasgow, will be smashed. Mr Davis will drive them into the sea."
From an earlier draft of the speech.
*bangs cup against plate*
Nah that's the Greek restaurants not the Italians.
May has delivered this speech poorly and has not said much beyond signalling a few necessary concessions, but I can't help feeling that the spirit is the one that should have been employed from the start.
"You'll be making a grave error if you kill us. There are a quarter of a million Italians in Britain. And they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, café, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in London, Liverpool and Glasgow, will be smashed. Mr Davis will drive them into the sea."
From an earlier draft of the speech.
*bangs cup against plate*
Nah that's the Greek restaurants not the Italians.
You've clearly never seen the film then.
Bit slow today. It's the Italian job innit!
Yeah, which has a scene of the inmates at Bridger's prison banging their metal cups against plates when the news of the Job being pulled off arrives.
"You'll be making a grave error if you kill us. There are a quarter of a million Italians in Britain. And they'll be made to suffer. Every restaurant, café, ice-cream parlour, gambling den and nightclub in London, Liverpool and Glasgow, will be smashed. Mr Davis will drive them into the sea."
From an earlier draft of the speech.
*bangs cup against plate*
Nah that's the Greek restaurants not the Italians.
You've clearly never seen the film then.
Bit slow today. It's the Italian job innit!
Yeah, which has a scene of the inmates at Bridger's prison banging their metal cups against plates when the news of the Job being pulled off arrives.
At the end of the day, what she is proposing is a 4 year Article 50 period instead of 2 years.
Indeed. A 4 year A50 period where in the last 2 years we've no Commissioner, no MEPs, no seat on the Council of Ministers or EUCO. It's taxation without representation.
May has delivered this speech poorly and has not said much beyond signalling a few concessions, but I can't help feeling that the spirit is the one that should have been employed from the start.
She was better today and certainly has put forward more detail
May has delivered this speech poorly and has not said much beyond signalling a few necessary concessions, but I can't help feeling that the spirit is the one that should have been employed from the start.
When it might have meant something and influenced subsequent events.
I think it's worth noting as well that as a private company uber can be selective about what it releases. It's not unreasonable to assume we are getting a very positive spin - and even then as the series makes clear - the numbers aren't good.
Can someone explain this to me ? The transition will last until the end of March 2021. One year before the next GE. Because one year before a GE and 4 years into a minority government we'll be in a *much* stronger position to get a great final deal. *Snorts*
Comments
Ooh - neutral court suggestion. I said that too...
She is delegating decisions over sovereignty to the British judges as individuals.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/tax-treaties
We are more dependent on EU trade than they are on UK trade. And I suspect it is easier to redirect the manufactured product they make to new markets than the bespoke services we're so good at.
Of course, if we decided on WTO as our choice of destination and spent the next two years building up to that, published our tariff schedules now, etc., then we'd probably do fine.
What would be a disaster for us would be if business spent the next 18 months working on the assumption there'll be a comprehensive FTA/multi year transitional period, and then at the last minute we crashed out to WTO.
I know the location could have been more inspring but the message is far more important than minor issues such as these
Let us see how this pans out
The requirements to be a mini cab driver and an Uber driver are identical. Uber is a mini cab firm.
But because of its success, and the fact that it is hammering black cabs, it is being targeted.
Edit: 2yrs - dream on.
We're staying in, we're staying in.
And success is a funny way of describing a company that has lost more money than any other in history.
- commercial vehicle insurance
- a private hire license
- a car
There is no difference. (And to get a private hire license you need to go to TfL who performs the criminal record check.)
Now; do some people get a private hire license, and then find themselves convicted of an offence and then forget to tell Uber (or Swiss Cottage Cars)?
Yes. Does it happen with any greater regularity with Uber than with other mini cab firms that get their licenses renews by TfL? I doubt it very much.
Oh my days.
Congrats.
Sounds great.
Cept we're not quite sure what we're implementing and that is exactly what the, er, implementation period is there to agree.
Hmm - logic 1.01 retake pls Tezza.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html
Alas. Still, glad Renaissance got a mention.
I think it's worth noting as well that as a private company uber can be selective about what it releases. It's not unreasonable to assume we are getting a very positive spin - and even then as the series makes clear - the numbers aren't good.
We will leave but everything stays the same = not leaving. It makes no sense.
As @dixiedean says it's Schrodinger's Brexit.
What will the status be for those two years?
They obviously won't give us a decent deal, so she needs to grow a pair and get on with it.