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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Harriet Harman Labour’s Michael Howard option?

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Harman would be another anti-working class choice.

    Imagine her touring factories....with the spads desperate to steer her away from the Pirelli calendars.

    Then there's her history, which I'm amazed the tories haven;t brought up more. In the 1970s in particular, she campaigned for some causes that would now be as popular as a f8rt in a space suit. They could have sunk her.

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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,897
    @Blofeld

    "God, the thread has descended into petty sniping already. Can you girls go and scratch each other somewhere else please."

    I think the non sexist version is 'people'
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    Hartman may have little to lose but the rest of us would. Think Equality Act.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,897
    @Doddy

    It was a Turkish production. I've never in all the hundreds of times I've worked for foreign production companies been put in a different hotel from any crew I've taken with me except that time (though I only ever take an operator or occasionally a grip because I light myself). With an English crew obviously the rules are different and often two or three hotels are involved because of numbers and then it is as you say...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,368
    taffys said:

    Harman would be another anti-working class choice.

    Imagine her touring factories....with the spads desperate to steer her away from the Pirelli calendars.

    Then there's her history, which I'm amazed the tories haven;t brought up more. In the 1970s in particular, she campaigned for some causes that would now be as popular as a f8rt in a space suit. They could have sunk her.

    If we are to be judged by what we said and did 40 years ago, few of us will escape intact. Contemplate Boris as leader for a microsecond and I'm sure you'll take the point. A year is a long time in political history.

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Harriet Harmon a horrible harridan. HELP!!!!!!!!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    O/T For those more interested in aircraft than trains, the Dawlish railcam is now pointing skywards, Airshow apparently starts at 1200 (I thought it was 2pm, but I'm sure they must be right).
    http://www.livestream.com/rcdawlish
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger.. been offered 2nd Unit Dir/DP on a feature .. looking forard to it .Some A list on board.
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Stella Creasey would be much better.
    She would wipe the floor with David Cameron.
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    AnneJGP said:

    O/T For those more interested in aircraft than trains, the Dawlish railcam is now pointing skywards, Airshow apparently starts at 1200 (I thought it was 2pm, but I'm sure they must be right).
    http://www.livestream.com/rcdawlish

    At least the weather's nice down there! Miserable and wet in London at the mo!
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Stella Creasey.. who she.? Has she ever been in the bearpit .. when the bears are there...
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    JohnO said:

    @Financier - But some of us do bet with tim and do quite nicely out of it, mostly because he's only a fraction of how clever he thinks he is.

    PS - He does pay up so that accusation is not justified.

    It was not linked with not paying up as you assume.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    I'm three-quarters of the way through David Lammy's 'Out of the Ashes', about the 2011 riots.

    It is a very good book. He seems to have got a firm enough handle on the causes of the riots and on the disenchantment of large sections of our population (so far, at least).

    I don't necessarily agree with all his solutions to the problems, but he has certainly created a very good starting point for the debate.

    The book has certainly rehabilitated him in my mind after the pope-smoke embarrassment. I'd put him above Harriet for leader any day of the week. My only questions would be whether he would want the job, and whether he would appeal to a broad enough swathe of the Labour party.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Roger said:

    @DoddY

    "MG .. It is the only way to travel.. Five star and never turn right on a long haul.."

    You're absolutely right. Even loaders travel business on a half decent shoot. I don't know what 'financier' is financing but he needs to seriously up his budget.

    I once took my own operator to Istanbul and I was put in the Marriott and he was put into a flea pit nearby. The following morning I explained to the production company that this was completely unacceptable and we both had to stay in the same hotel.

    The following night they checked me in to the flea pit!

    @Roger:

    If we are dealing with much of public sector incl, governments, and NGOs like UN, World Bank, IMF etc, then by their standards it is always Exec or Ist Class plus 4-5* hotels.

    When we are working for e.g oil majors, then allowable T&E costs are economy air flight unless it is Far East or S America and no more than 3* hotels. No differentiation is made between any of our employees and the CEO.

    When we charge out T&E, then we do not load that charge so to be competitive and use the most economic service for best value and that often includes good B&Bs.

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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650

    Stella Creasey.. who she.? Has she ever been in the bearpit .. when the bears are there...</blockquote

    Only online!

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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    I'm three-quarters of the way through David Lammy's 'Out of the Ashes', about the 2011 riots.

    It is a very good book. He seems to have got a firm enough handle on the causes of the riots and on the disenchantment of large sections of our population (so far, at least).

    I don't necessarily agree with all his solutions to the problems, but he has certainly created a very good starting point for the debate.

    The book has certainly rehabilitated him in my mind after the pope-smoke embarrassment. I'd put him above Harriet for leader any day of the week. My only questions would be whether he would want the job, and whether he would appeal to a broad enough swathe of the Labour party.

    Thanks for the recommendation. Have it already on my Autumn book list.
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    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    I always think that Harriet looks a lot younger than her age. I think she looks at least 10 years younger than the current age of 63.
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    Fat_Steve said:

    Stella Creasey would be much better.
    She would wipe the floor with David Cameron.

    Stella Creasey? Where?

    :)
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings

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    Can't believe I used to fancy Harriet when I was in my teens (um, while Blair-led Labour were still in opposition).
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Syria: US Strike?

    A few journalists report a belief that some kind of US military response to the alleged chemical weapons attack in the Damascus is probable not possible. US outlets report some shifts of US naval assets in case such a strike is called.

    Last night I set out a couple of target ideas for a restricted attack to act as a punishment to Assad not to bother again, largely by chopping off a couple of fingers, rather than a whole hand off his war fighting capability. A third possibility raised by US media outlets is an attack on the forces believed responsible. These are rumoured to be elements of Syrian 4th division, headed by Assads' brother & the airforce who store the majority of the special weapons.

    Attacking the chemical weapons stocks is the most tricky operation of all though politically they the most convenient option, given that it would be symbolically but not militarily significant.

    Other than the chemical weapons depots and the 4th Division or other chosen security institution, airbases are the next possible punishment target, 6 of which (3 within the greater Damascus area) offer the vast majority of Assad's air operations (some of these also hold substantive special weapons stocks). Such a strike might not aim to take out the airfields or aircraft but instead damage for a number of days and destroy supporting resources, such as air traffic control & fuel supply.

    The physical damage might just stop Assad doing much for a week or two for fixed wing operations, in particular resupply. It may not tip the military balance but it would certainly cause Assad severe difficulty, one he could do without.

    In US terms this, the resources required are a drop in the ocean and largely in the region or of a long range deployment variety.

    Decision Point? Assuming the US satisfies itself that the chemical weapons attack took place and decides that it has to act, then a limited strike on any or all of the above type of targets would be launched in less than 2 week and take upto 48 hours to complete including battle damage assessment and any follow up attacks. Anything longer in duration and larger in scope and the political and military impacts will multiply.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Financier said:

    I'm three-quarters of the way through David Lammy's 'Out of the Ashes', about the 2011 riots.

    It is a very good book. He seems to have got a firm enough handle on the causes of the riots and on the disenchantment of large sections of our population (so far, at least).

    I don't necessarily agree with all his solutions to the problems, but he has certainly created a very good starting point for the debate.

    The book has certainly rehabilitated him in my mind after the pope-smoke embarrassment. I'd put him above Harriet for leader any day of the week. My only questions would be whether he would want the job, and whether he would appeal to a broad enough swathe of the Labour party.

    Thanks for the recommendation. Have it already on my Autumn book list.
    It's good to see a politician actually trying to define the problems rather than just shout out ideological solutions. As you would expect his solutions are more from the left, but are a good starting point for debate.

    IDS should have written a book like this in 2008/9 when he was investigating these issues and before the Conservatives got to power. Even then, it would not have the power of this book: Lammy actually grew up in the sort of area that had the problems. He intimately knows them and the people.

    It's a bit of an odd book structurewise, with the convenient-to-read-on-train widely-spaced lines of text that I hate. It appears to be two books in one. But I found myself having to pause at the end of each chapter to really think about what he had written.

    Perhaps I should leave saying more until I've completed it.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Financier said:

    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings

    Ha! I've an abandoned newborn kitten I'm trying to keep alive - its decided that climbing into my knickers is the best place to feel safe. We're on Day 3 of me playing mum. Only another 27 until he eats solid food and I'm not covered in sticky formula milk.

    I don't recall hand-rearing in such hot and muggy weather before hence my under-dressed state
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    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings
    Ha! I've an abandoned newborn kitten I'm trying to keep alive - its decided that climbing into my knickers is the best place to feel safe. We're on Day 3 of me playing mum. Only another 27 until he eats solid food and I'm not covered in sticky formula milk.
    Ha! an opportunity for a Mrs Slocumb quote about the life of Plato, one I shall sadly resist!
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Ivor Biggun has a song about a pussy.
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    i was surprised Harman didn't stand last time, I thought she'd have a good chance of winning. She'd be a terrible choice though.

    Increasingly I feel the next election is going to be a virtual replay of the last, Labour will gain seats but not enough and the LDs although diminished will still hold the balance of power, so probably Cameron will stay in office - just.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings

    Ha! I've an abandoned newborn kitten I'm trying to keep alive - its decided that climbing into my knickers is the best place to feel safe. We're on Day 3 of me playing mum. Only another 27 until he eats solid food and I'm not covered in sticky formula milk.

    I don't recall hand-rearing in such hot and muggy weather before hence my under-dressed state
    mr humphries, are you free?
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    Re Bill Walker MSP

    the answer to "why SNP selected him in first place" is probably "because they didn't expect to win Dunfermline".
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited August 2013
    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings

    Ha! I've an abandoned newborn kitten I'm trying to keep alive - its decided that climbing into my knickers is the best place to feel safe. We're on Day 3 of me playing mum. Only another 27 until he eats solid food and I'm not covered in sticky formula milk.
    Recently abandoned young male requires 'safe' new home – house trained, doesn’t bite.

    : )

    PO.BOX 55501
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Y0kel said:

    Syria: US Strike?

    A few journalists report a belief that some kind of US military response to the alleged chemical weapons attack in the Damascus is probable not possible. US outlets report some shifts of US naval assets in case such a strike is called.

    Is there any chance this was a false flag operation to lure the US into deposing Assad who seems recently to have been winning even without chemical weapons?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:


    6. She has a brilliant USP. Like Blair she CHOSE Labour unlike Cameron and co just joined the party that perpetuated their own class and privilege.

    You do realise that Harriet comes from a long-standing left wing family?

    Names like Antonia Fraser, Lord Longford, Thomas Pakenham, Nathaniel Harman et al are significant in the radical left

    That she was just really practicing nepotism?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,996
    edited August 2013
    Harman is a year older than Howard was when he took over as Tory leader in 2003.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:



    Speakers have always represented Parliament around the world, its simply that now you and your Daily Mail bible have access to which hotels have rooms at £2k per night that he didn't stay in.

    Park Hyatts are certainly nice - much better than the ordinary Hyatt Grand / Hyatt chain - although personally I prefer the Hyatt Andaz brand which is a little 'younger' in character.

    With the exception of the Park Hyatt in Place Vendome (which is ludicrous) I'd say that most of them are probably executive committee/division head level hotels from a private sector perspective. Doesn't seem unreasonable that the Speaker, on official business, should stay somewhere at that level.

    And $400 a night for a hotel on the US east coast is very reasonable.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,996
    Received a glossy brochure from Lloyds today informing me they've changed their name from Lloyds TSB to Lloyds Bank.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    I have no time for Bercow but I do not want the Speaker staying in a doss house..He does represent the British Government.
    Edit.. Harriet Harman is nuts..

    He could surely get a decent hotel up to say £500 a night and not be dossing it. Typical of all these turds, if they were paying it from their own pockets it would be burgers but when we are footing the bill then it is fillet steak
    He paid £250 per night... (2x rooms, 2x nights)... unless you know something about his relationship with him aide that I don't?
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings

    Ha! I've an abandoned newborn kitten I'm trying to keep alive - its decided that climbing into my knickers is the best place to feel safe. We're on Day 3 of me playing mum. Only another 27 until he eats solid food and I'm not covered in sticky formula milk.

    I don't recall hand-rearing in such hot and muggy weather before hence my under-dressed state
    Parent one of your cats or an outside stray? You should try hand feeding calves and lambs - you are into gallons there. But don't have pants big enough, so use straw!
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    houndtang said:

    i was surprised Harman didn't stand last time, I thought she'd have a good chance of winning. She'd be a terrible choice though.

    Increasingly I feel the next election is going to be a virtual replay of the last, Labour will gain seats but not enough and the LDs although diminished will still hold the balance of power, so probably Cameron will stay in office - just.

    Pretty much any gain beyond 10 or so from Con makes Lib/Lab viable. If Clegg was kingmaker again it would be much easier for Lab to make the winning offer, because:
    - Lib/Con low-hanging fruit like taking people out of income tax has already been picked.
    - Con backbenchers already feel like they've given up enough.
    - The LibDems would probably prefer the impression of balance, by working with both sides.
    - Clegg isn't going to want an EU referendum, at least with the Eurozone looking like a basketcase, but it won't be trivial for Cameron to back out of one.
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    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings

    Ha! I've an abandoned newborn kitten I'm trying to keep alive - its decided that climbing into my knickers is the best place to feel safe. We're on Day 3 of me playing mum. Only another 27 until he eats solid food and I'm not covered in sticky formula milk.

    I don't recall hand-rearing in such hot and muggy weather before hence my under-dressed state
    *Sunil grabs Kleenex*

    (only kidding!! :)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Thrilling qualifying session at Spa. No ideas for bets yet, but I'll write up the qualifying then have a think.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm pushed to see a vacancy for the leadership of the Labour Party this side of an election. The Evening Standard wrote an uncharacteristically friendly editorial on Wednesday which makes me think they quite like the idea of Ed Miliband remaining in post for obvious reasons.

    As others have opined, the other main aspect of changing leader is if you have someone better waiting in the wings and I struggle to see who Labour would choose who would immediately re-vitalise the Party.

    As an LD, I'm interested to see how Labour positions itself to the LDs in the run-up to an election. The potential of a post-election Lab-LD arrangement is obvious but that doesn't make such an arrangement likely or even possible. There may be those in the Labour camp who don't want anything to do with the LDs which is fair enough. There may be others who will talk to the LDs but not to Nick Clegg which is a valid if not helpful view.

    It seems to me that the next stage from one Party telling another who it won't deal with as leader is to tell them who they will deal with.
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    edited August 2013
    Bizarrely the Bollywood film Madras Cafe about ethnic strife in SriLanka appears to have been banned in the UK??.It was supposed to have been released yesterday but din`t happen due to protest by Tamil groups outside Cineworld.Meanwhile it has been released in India.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,058

    houndtang said:

    i was surprised Harman didn't stand last time, I thought she'd have a good chance of winning. She'd be a terrible choice though.

    Increasingly I feel the next election is going to be a virtual replay of the last, Labour will gain seats but not enough and the LDs although diminished will still hold the balance of power, so probably Cameron will stay in office - just.

    Pretty much any gain beyond 10 or so from Con makes Lib/Lab viable. If Clegg was kingmaker again it would be much easier for Lab to make the winning offer, because:
    - Lib/Con low-hanging fruit like taking people out of income tax has already been picked.
    - Con backbenchers already feel like they've given up enough.
    - The LibDems would probably prefer the impression of balance, by working with both sides.
    - Clegg isn't going to want an EU referendum, at least with the Eurozone looking like a basketcase, but it won't be trivial for Cameron to back out of one.
    Lab/LD coalition might just produce a viable and practical programme of constitutional reform!
    E.g. AMS, House of Lords reform.
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    SMukesh said:

    Bizarrely the Bollywood film Madras Cafe about ethnic strife in SriLanka appears to have been banned in the UK??.It was supposed to have been released yesterday but din`t happen due to protest by Tamil groups outside Cineworld.Meanwhile it has been released in India.

    Were the Tamil protesting for or against the film?
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650

    SMukesh said:

    Bizarrely the Bollywood film Madras Cafe about ethnic strife in SriLanka appears to have been banned in the UK??.It was supposed to have been released yesterday but din`t happen due to protest by Tamil groups outside Cineworld.Meanwhile it has been released in India.

    Were the Tamil protesting for or against the film?
    Against.They believe it shows their late leader in a bad light
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    Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    Morris_Dancer, it certainly was a thrilling finish to the qualy.

    I saw Hamilton had one more lap and got £2 on him, at 360-1, only £1.07 of it filled but not to be sniffed at :-)
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    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Bizarrely the Bollywood film Madras Cafe about ethnic strife in SriLanka appears to have been banned in the UK??.It was supposed to have been released yesterday but din`t happen due to protest by Tamil groups outside Cineworld.Meanwhile it has been released in India.

    Were the Tamil protesting for or against the film?
    Against.They believe it shows their late leader in a bad light
    Looks like it's banned in Tamil Nadu State itself:

    The film however did not release in Tamil Nadu as exhibitors feared the movie is not worth taking risk amidst controversy.[41]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madras_Cafe

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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    This is an interesting story.
    The Telegraph apologises to UKIP and UKIP candidate.
    http://onthewight.com/2013/08/23/daily-telegraph-apology-ukip-richard-wilkins-hoax-quotes/
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Mr. Bob, you cunning rogue! Nice to see you on. Hope you're well, and following the F1 stuff on http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Bizarrely the Bollywood film Madras Cafe about ethnic strife in SriLanka appears to have been banned in the UK??.It was supposed to have been released yesterday but din`t happen due to protest by Tamil groups outside Cineworld.Meanwhile it has been released in India.

    Were the Tamil protesting for or against the film?
    Against.They believe it shows their late leader in a bad light
    Looks like it's banned in Tamil Nadu State itself:

    The film however did not release in Tamil Nadu as exhibitors feared the movie is not worth taking risk amidst controversy.[41]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madras_Cafe

    Your description does *not* state that it was banned though. Just a commercial decision not to exhibit it.

    Semantics matter sometimes
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    Charles said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Bizarrely the Bollywood film Madras Cafe about ethnic strife in SriLanka appears to have been banned in the UK??.It was supposed to have been released yesterday but din`t happen due to protest by Tamil groups outside Cineworld.Meanwhile it has been released in India.

    Were the Tamil protesting for or against the film?
    Against.They believe it shows their late leader in a bad light
    Looks like it's banned in Tamil Nadu State itself:

    The film however did not release in Tamil Nadu as exhibitors feared the movie is not worth taking risk amidst controversy.[41]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madras_Cafe

    Your description does *not* state that it was banned though. Just a commercial decision not to exhibit it.

    Semantics matter sometimes
    Sorry yes you are of course right! But the article does state that while the original Hindi version was cleared for release, the Tamil dub has not been.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,996
    New Australian election poll from Nielsen:

    Lib/Nat: 47%
    Lab: 35%
    Green: 10%
    Others: 7%

    Two-party preferred:

    Lib/Nat: 53%
    Lab: 47%

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-23/labor-slips-further-in-latest-nielsen-poll/4909334

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    stodge said:

    As an LD, I'm interested to see how Labour positions itself to the LDs in the run-up to an election. The potential of a post-election Lab-LD arrangement is obvious but that doesn't make such an arrangement likely or even possible. There may be those in the Labour camp who don't want anything to do with the LDs which is fair enough. There may be others who will talk to the LDs but not to Nick Clegg which is a valid if not helpful view.

    It seems to me that the next stage from one Party telling another who it won't deal with as leader is to tell them who they will deal with.

    IMHO As a general rule it should be for each party to choose their own leader and if another party doesn't want to deal with that person, they don't deal with that party.

    In spite of which, I do feel that after the GE, Mr Clegg was only doing for the Labour party what none of its own people were capable of doing for themselves. Initially, I was so very happy to see Mr Brown realise the dream he'd chased for so long, but it turned out to be an object lesson in the Be Careful What You Wish For series.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Interesting topic. I just went through the local election results for Thursday in Vote 2012 and , yet again, Labour continues to do very well in actual elections where actual votes are put in ballot boxes.

    When a party is doing well in the polls, detractors usually point out that a poll is not real votes. When a party does well in real elections, detractors say............[ type in whatever you fancy ]

    Has anybody actually cared to look at the real votes [ I mean the swings ]. The Tories are doing badly, the LD's likewise except in pockets where they have strength they are holding on to their votes and UKIP continues to be resilient. Labour are gaining councillors regularly.

    2014 would be interesting, particularly with elections in London.

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    O/T

    As Bale lands in Spain - Scrapheap will be entering a mourning period of silence for a week. Should a defeat arise at the Emirates next sunday, this may be extended for some time.

    At least Ed's cost of his political life crisis will see me through to his certain barnstorming conference speech next month.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:

    Roger said:


    6. She has a brilliant USP. Like Blair she CHOSE Labour unlike Cameron and co just joined the party that perpetuated their own class and privilege.

    You do realise that Harriet comes from a long-standing left wing family?

    Names like Antonia Fraser, Lord Longford, Thomas Pakenham, Nathaniel Harman et al are significant in the radical left

    That she was just really practicing nepotism?
    Wasn't Antonia Fraser married to a Tory MP before Pinter.

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894
    AnneJGP said:



    IMHO As a general rule it should be for each party to choose their own leader and if another party doesn't want to deal with that person, they don't deal with that party.

    In spite of which, I do feel that after the GE, Mr Clegg was only doing for the Labour party what none of its own people were capable of doing for themselves. Initially, I was so very happy to see Mr Brown realise the dream he'd chased for so long, but it turned out to be an object lesson in the Be Careful What You Wish For series.

    Indeed. I'm sure Ed Miliband would never say such a thing in public and I suspect he's too canny a politician to say it in private either. It will be fascinating to see how Labour acts after the next GE. My view is Miliband will form a minority administration if he is in a position to do so (as Cameron could have once it became clear Labour could not command a majority or close to it in the HoC)

    After the 2010 GE, I couldn't conceive how the LDs could prop up a Labour Government which had polled below 30% and lost in excess of 100 seats. For me, the idea that it could have happened serves only to keep naïve Tory activists awake at night.

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    surbiton said:


    When a party is doing well in the polls, detractors usually point out that a poll is not real votes. When a party does well in real elections, detractors say............[ type in whatever you fancy ]

    Labour's not doing that well in real elections. 29% projected national vote share in May wasnt fantastic.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    Plato said:

    Financier said:

    Plato said:
    So that's what keeps you busy evenings

    Ha! I've an abandoned newborn kitten I'm trying to keep alive - its decided that climbing into my knickers is the best place to feel safe. We're on Day 3 of me playing mum. Only another 27 until he eats solid food and I'm not covered in sticky formula milk.
    Recently abandoned young male requires 'safe' new home – house trained, doesn’t bite.

    : )

    PO.BOX 55501
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    surbiton said:

    Interesting topic. I just went through the local election results for Thursday in Vote 2012 and , yet again, Labour continues to do very well in actual elections where actual votes are put in ballot boxes.

    When a party is doing well in the polls, detractors usually point out that a poll is not real votes. When a party does well in real elections, detractors say............[ type in whatever you fancy ]

    Has anybody actually cared to look at the real votes [ I mean the swings ]. The Tories are doing badly, the LD's likewise except in pockets where they have strength they are holding on to their votes and UKIP continues to be resilient. Labour are gaining councillors regularly.

    2014 would be interesting, particularly with elections in London.

    But is it as good as anecdotal evidence that the man in the pub in the next town will never vote Labour again because the woman in the bed next to his grandmother caught a cold during her stay in an NHS hospital!
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Neil said:

    surbiton said:


    When a party is doing well in the polls, detractors usually point out that a poll is not real votes. When a party does well in real elections, detractors say............[ type in whatever you fancy ]

    Labour's not doing that well in real elections. 29% projected national vote share in May wasnt fantastic.
    Can you please tell us how the 100% were made up then ?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,005
    Betting Post

    Backed Hamilton for the win at 3.9, hedged at 1.5. Reasoning and my qualifying summary is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/belgium-pre-race.html
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    surbiton said:

    Neil said:

    surbiton said:


    When a party is doing well in the polls, detractors usually point out that a poll is not real votes. When a party does well in real elections, detractors say............[ type in whatever you fancy ]

    Labour's not doing that well in real elections. 29% projected national vote share in May wasnt fantastic.
    Can you please tell us how the 100% were made up then ?
    Tories c. 25%
    UKIP c. 22%
    Lib Dems c. 14%
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    New Thread
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    SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,650
    @Neil
    Do you not think that local elections in predominantly Tory heartlands might have skewed the outcome?After all the major cities and Scotland were excluded from this election!
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Neil said:

    surbiton said:

    Neil said:

    surbiton said:


    When a party is doing well in the polls, detractors usually point out that a poll is not real votes. When a party does well in real elections, detractors say............[ type in whatever you fancy ]

    Labour's not doing that well in real elections. 29% projected national vote share in May wasnt fantastic.
    Can you please tell us how the 100% were made up then ?
    Tories c. 25%
    UKIP c. 22%
    Lib Dems c. 14%
    So, you forgot to say, a 6% swing to Labour. Probably a Labour majority !
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:


    6. She has a brilliant USP. Like Blair she CHOSE Labour unlike Cameron and co just joined the party that perpetuated their own class and privilege.

    You do realise that Harriet comes from a long-standing left wing family?

    Names like Antonia Fraser, Lord Longford, Thomas Pakenham, Nathaniel Harman et al are significant in the radical left

    That she was just really practicing nepotism?
    Wasn't Antonia Fraser married to a Tory MP before Pinter.

    She was married to Hugh Fraser (a Lovat Fraser).

    But I'm evolved enough to believe that women can have political views that diverge from those of their husbands
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SMukesh said:

    @Neil
    Do you not think that local elections in predominantly Tory heartlands might have skewed the outcome?After all the major cities and Scotland were excluded from this election!

    That's why I quoted the projected national vote share.
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