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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Previewing tonight’s 3 by elections

SystemSystem Posts: 12,259
edited September 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Previewing tonight’s 3 by elections

Three council by-elections tonight. One Conservative defence, one Labour, one UKIP.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • ?
  • "You were only supposed to blow the bloody REMAINERs off!"
  • FPT
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against here.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    She's fond of instigating coups de theatre to preempt any nonsense. Perhaps she'll sack Boris on the day of the speech.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,271
    The Germans are nothing but trouble. :angry:
  • tlg86 said:

    The Germans are nothing but trouble. :angry:

    It looks bloody scary.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,271

    tlg86 said:

    The Germans are nothing but trouble. :angry:

    It looks bloody scary.
    I walked over the bridge and found the ground shut up. I got to my gate and then they announced the delay so we just went home as we have work in the morning.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,433
    edited September 2017
    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Germans are nothing but trouble. :angry:

    It looks bloody scary.
    I walked over the bridge and found the ground shut up. I got to my gate and then they announced the delay so we just went home as we have work in the morning.
    Wise move. This isn't going to end well.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,271

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Germans are nothing but trouble. :angry:

    It looks bloody scary.
    I walked over the bridge and found the ground shut up. I got to my gate and then they announced the delay so we just went home as we have work in the morning.
    Wise move. This isn't going to end well.
    It looks okay in the ground now. I must say I'm surprised we only gave them 3,000 tickets. It sounds like their fans were trying to get into the away end having entered through the home turnstiles which is stupid. Nobody has a problem with away fans in the home stands if they behave themselves - the ground is full of tourists for a midweek game anyway so nobody would know any different.
  • GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Germans are nothing but trouble. :angry:

    It looks bloody scary.
    I walked over the bridge and found the ground shut up. I got to my gate and then they announced the delay so we just went home as we have work in the morning.
    Wise move. This isn't going to end well.
    It looks okay in the ground now. I must say I'm surprised we only gave them 3,000 tickets. It sounds like their fans were trying to get into the away end having entered through the home turnstiles which is stupid. Nobody has a problem with away fans in the home stands if they behave themselves - the ground is full of tourists for a midweek game anyway so nobody would know any different.
    Corker of a goal.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Germans are nothing but trouble. :angry:

    It looks bloody scary.
    I walked over the bridge and found the ground shut up. I got to my gate and then they announced the delay so we just went home as we have work in the morning.
    Wise move. This isn't going to end well.
    It looks okay in the ground now. I must say I'm surprised we only gave them 3,000 tickets. It sounds like their fans were trying to get into the away end having entered through the home turnstiles which is stupid. Nobody has a problem with away fans in the home stands if they behave themselves - the ground is full of tourists for a midweek game anyway so nobody would know any different.
    Corker of a goal.
    Fantastic goal
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited September 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speach, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,084
    edited September 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career and the Falklands are 8,000 miles away (bit pedantic)
  • GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career
    Her career is over, mate. It's only going one way for her.
  • GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career
    Her career is over, mate. It's only going one way for her.
    Not yet it isn't
  • I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see

    Perhaps after a good run through the wheat fields she can give us 'the thinking of the bello grano'.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    edited September 2017
    Public service announcement, if you're ever called to serve on a jury, this is what you DON'T do.

    A JURY foreman who ignored strict rules about not making internet searches was jailed for four months.

    Lionel Tweed not only researched aspects of the murder trial on the web, he also told his fellow jurors about his findings.

    The painter and decorator, 54, looked up the information during the trial of Piotr Olejarczyk, who stabbed a man to death. Olejarczyk was found guilty of murder and jailed for life in December at Manchester crown court.

    https://www.metro.news/jury-foreman-is-jailed-for-internet-search-about-case/744868/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see

    Perhaps after a good run through the wheat fields she can give us 'the thinking of the bello grano'.
    Pasta la vista, Theresa? [if I may mix latin languages for a moment]
  • GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career
    Her career is over, mate. It's only going one way for her.
    Not yet it isn't
    It really is. It flatlined at one minute past ten on the 8th of June. She no longer has a career in politics. She has handed in her notice, and is just swinging the lead until she clears her desk.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2017

    Public service announcement, if you're ever called to serve on a jury, this is what you DON'T do.

    A JURY foreman who ignored strict rules about not making internet searches was jailed for four months.

    Lionel Tweed not only researched aspects of the murder trial on the web, he also told his fellow jurors about his findings.

    The painter and decorator, 54, looked up the information during the trial of Piotr Olejarczyk, who stabbed a man to death. Olejarczyk was found guilty of murder and jailed for life in December at Manchester crown court.

    https://www.metro.news/jury-foreman-is-jailed-for-internet-search-about-case/744868/

    Did jury service about a year ago. In both cases I was at the judge was CRYSTAL clear about not doing exactly that. Also notices and newspaper clipping about jailed jurors plastered all over the waiting room. Zero sympathy.
  • GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career
    Her career is over, mate. It's only going one way for her.
    Not yet it isn't
    She's as doomed as Doomy McDoomy who served with the 4th Dragoons at the Battle of Balaclava.
  • I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see

    Perhaps after a good run through the wheat fields she can give us 'the thinking of the bello grano'.
    Do you mean Belgrano. In the election that followed in 1983 I was Wyn Roberts (Later Lord) (conservative) driver during the whole campaign and I had an interesting conversation with a Plaid voter over the sinking including diagrams etc and I persuaded him of the danger Belgrano posed to the defence of the Falklands.

    I didn't realise at the time that 30 years later I would visit these remote and interesting islands
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,722

    Public service announcement, if you're ever called to serve on a jury, this is what you DON'T do.

    A JURY foreman who ignored strict rules about not making internet searches was jailed for four months.

    Lionel Tweed not only researched aspects of the murder trial on the web, he also told his fellow jurors about his findings.

    The painter and decorator, 54, looked up the information during the trial of Piotr Olejarczyk, who stabbed a man to death. Olejarczyk was found guilty of murder and jailed for life in December at Manchester crown court.

    https://www.metro.news/jury-foreman-is-jailed-for-internet-search-about-case/744868/

    I enjoyed my jury service.

    And it was made clear to me that doing internet searches was absolutely forbidden.
  • GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career
    Her career is over, mate. It's only going one way for her.
    Not yet it isn't
    She's as doomed as Doomy McDoomy who served with the 4th Dragoons at the Battle of Balaclava.
    Not before Brexit - after yes unless something unexpected happens
  • I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see

    Perhaps after a good run through the wheat fields she can give us 'the thinking of the bello grano'.
    Do you mean Belgrano. In the election that followed in 1983 I was Wyn Roberts (Later Lord) (conservative) driver during the whole campaign and I had an interesting conversation with a Plaid voter over the sinking including diagrams etc and I persuaded him of the danger Belgrano posed to the defence of the Falklands.

    I didn't realise at the time that 30 years later I would visit these remote and interesting islands
    No it was just a bad pun: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bello+grano&tbm=isch

    Interesting anecdote!
  • Anorak said:

    Public service announcement, if you're ever called to serve on a jury, this is what you DON'T do.

    A JURY foreman who ignored strict rules about not making internet searches was jailed for four months.

    Lionel Tweed not only researched aspects of the murder trial on the web, he also told his fellow jurors about his findings.

    The painter and decorator, 54, looked up the information during the trial of Piotr Olejarczyk, who stabbed a man to death. Olejarczyk was found guilty of murder and jailed for life in December at Manchester crown court.

    https://www.metro.news/jury-foreman-is-jailed-for-internet-search-about-case/744868/

    Did jury service about a year ago. In both cases I was at the judge was CRYSTAL clear about not doing exactly that. Also notices and newspaper clipping about jailed jurors plastered all over the waiting room. Zero sympathy.
    The biggest issue nowadays is Facebook/social media for juries.

    You might not know the defendant, but you might be friends with someone who has them on their friends list.

    Or Facebook algorithms whose news feeds brings up all the news articles about the trial.
  • Sean_F said:

    Public service announcement, if you're ever called to serve on a jury, this is what you DON'T do.

    A JURY foreman who ignored strict rules about not making internet searches was jailed for four months.

    Lionel Tweed not only researched aspects of the murder trial on the web, he also told his fellow jurors about his findings.

    The painter and decorator, 54, looked up the information during the trial of Piotr Olejarczyk, who stabbed a man to death. Olejarczyk was found guilty of murder and jailed for life in December at Manchester crown court.

    https://www.metro.news/jury-foreman-is-jailed-for-internet-search-about-case/744868/

    I enjoyed my jury service.

    And it was made clear to me that doing internet searches was absolutely forbidden.
    TBF I'd be amazed if you didn't follow the direction of the judge to the letter.
  • I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see

    Perhaps after a good run through the wheat fields she can give us 'the thinking of the bello grano'.
    Do you mean Belgrano. In the election that followed in 1983 I was Wyn Roberts (Later Lord) (conservative) driver during the whole campaign and I had an interesting conversation with a Plaid voter over the sinking including diagrams etc and I persuaded him of the danger Belgrano posed to the defence of the Falklands.

    I didn't realise at the time that 30 years later I would visit these remote and interesting islands
    No it was just a bad pun: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bello+grano&tbm=isch

    Interesting anecdote!
    It was a very interesting discussion and l actually knew more about the fight for the Falklands than Wyn did. By the way he was one of life's lovely people, welcomed by so many in the constituency including council estates and strong labour areas. I was privileged to fight the 1979 and 1987 campaigns as his driver as well
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,722

    Sean_F said:

    Public service announcement, if you're ever called to serve on a jury, this is what you DON'T do.

    A JURY foreman who ignored strict rules about not making internet searches was jailed for four months.

    Lionel Tweed not only researched aspects of the murder trial on the web, he also told his fellow jurors about his findings.

    The painter and decorator, 54, looked up the information during the trial of Piotr Olejarczyk, who stabbed a man to death. Olejarczyk was found guilty of murder and jailed for life in December at Manchester crown court.

    https://www.metro.news/jury-foreman-is-jailed-for-internet-search-about-case/744868/

    I enjoyed my jury service.

    And it was made clear to me that doing internet searches was absolutely forbidden.
    TBF I'd be amazed if you didn't follow the direction of the judge to the letter.
    It would be very natural to do a google search on the Defendant. So, the judge's warning was very helpful.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,271
    The Cologne fans ended my run of consecutive home Arsenal matches at 133. I doubt I'll ever beat that.
  • Anorak said:

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see

    Perhaps after a good run through the wheat fields she can give us 'the thinking of the bello grano'.
    Pasta la vista, Theresa? [if I may mix latin languages for a moment]
    "I know now why you cry. But it is something I can never do."
  • I'm glad I'm not at the Emirates tonight. Looks ugly.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    edited September 2017

    Public service announcement, if you're ever called to serve on a jury, this is what you DON'T do. A JURY foreman who ignored strict rules about not making internet searches was jailed for four months.

    I've only served on a Jury once in my life and come to think of it it was only once during the two weeks I had to attend court as the other cases I was selected for collapsed for reasons such as one of the selected jurors knowing the defendant!

    We were told not to research the case, which only lasted two days and no one appeared to have done so when we retired to consider our verdict. What I found interesting was that we were split 6-4 to acquit because the prosecution didn't try to disprove the defendants alibi, presumably because they thought what they had given would result in a conviction. When it became apparent in the Jury Room that no-one was going to change their view we decided to acquit with a unanimous verdict as it was nearly the end of the day and none of us wanted to carry on discussing this case! I suspect the Judge had already written what he was going to say as his face when our Foreman stood up and said "Not Guilty and that is the view of us all" suggested some surprise. (We never saw our Foreman again which led to us generating lots of stories/rumours regarding his fate)

    After the trial verdict I did Google the defendants name and was mildly relieved to find there were no references to it (as I was one of the six). However had anyone done that during the trial and revealed that they had found a previous conviction for something then the outcome would have been different and a possibly innocent person, of that crime anyway, would have been facing jail sentence.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    PB goes quiet for an hour and this happens.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career
    Her career is over, mate. It's only going one way for her.
    Not yet it isn't
    It really is. It flatlined at one minute past ten on the 8th of June. She no longer has a career in politics. She has handed in her notice, and is just swinging the lead until she clears her desk.
    http://zombie.wikia.com/wiki/Zombie_Killing
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    OchEye said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Boris won't quit (IMO)

    However Theresa has to be careful with this speech... The fact she is delivering it away from the UK means there will be a "window" of opportunity while she is out of the country for the Tory Party to move against her.

    She might fly back in to Heathrow to find she's out of a job if she's not careful... ;)

    This could be her Falklands moment - I am looking forward to her speech and I think it will be apparent fairly quickly if it was sensible and successful or a flop in which case she will not survive conference.

    I really hope she does achieve her Falklands moment - we will see
    It's a speech, not militarily retaking an island 6000 miles away. And it's May doing the talking. Calm down, Big G.
    It is a big moment for her career
    Her career is over, mate. It's only going one way for her.
    Not yet it isn't
    It really is. It flatlined at one minute past ten on the 8th of June. She no longer has a career in politics. She has handed in her notice, and is just swinging the lead until she clears her desk.
    http://zombie.wikia.com/wiki/Zombie_Killing
    Then chop up and put in freezer!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,960
    Interesting article on the May speech, suggesting that Germany and France are divided on the Brexit bill, as are the Council and Commission.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41274743
  • Nigelb said:

    Interesting article on the May speech, suggesting that Germany and France are divided on the Brexit bill, as are the Council and Commission.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41274743

    Here, the speech is so sensitive no one will be drawn on the record. But one former diplomat, familiar with the talks, told me there is a chance for the UK to throw the EU "into disarray" - put forward that "sensible offer" and destroy the unity the 27 other countries have worked so hard to preserve.

    According to the article the 'sensible offer' is to get a three year transition and to defer any long term financial commitments. Somehow I don't think this will be seen as making progress.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    On a more serious note, most people are not really aware or interested in the Japan/Korea connection, or why North Korea keeps firing missiles over Japan. Goes back to 1876 to the official annexation in 1910 till the defeat of Japan in 1945. I've added a pdf which gives a reasonable short history.
    My point being that "face" is involved. Japan doesn't have a high regard for Korea and Koreans (in fact Korean descendants from the annexation period still resident in Japan are regarded as second class), while the North Koreans get home brownie points for annoying the Japanese.
    I would be very surprised if the Japanese government, going through back channels, had not made it abundantly clear to Beijing that if there is a third missile going over Japan, then there will be all hell to pay.
    http://www.asj.upd.edu.ph/mediabox/archive/ASJ-13-03-1975/king-japanese-colonialism-korean-economic-development.pdf
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited September 2017
    Ally_B said:


    After the trial verdict I did Google the defendants name and was mildly relieved to find there were no references to it (as I was one of the six). However had anyone done that during the trial and revealed that they had found a previous conviction for something then the outcome would have been different and a possibly innocent person, of that crime anyway, would have been facing jail sentence.

    Had the same situation in reverse: on the evidence, we went for not proven (which I was happy with, on balance). Likely if anyone had googled, they'd have found the little scrote had previous convictions. I'd assume that knowledge would have resulted in more guilty votes - I'd like to think it wouldn't have swayed me, but awfully easy to say that.

    Wasn't a very impressive process all told. Wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of it.
  • The two Koreas and Japan have what can only be described as a difficult relationship with the other parts of the trinity - I suspect it may be the moment the Trump Presidency sinks or swims (I'd describe him as flailing/doggy paddling at the moment) - as Barack Obama rightly realised in 2011, Asia Pacific is the US's main security issue and not Europe/Atlantic
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It is one of the great ironies of Brexit that the United Kingdom’s messy divorce from Europe, sold as an effort to reclaim parliamentary sovereignty, has instead delivered its opposite. Last Monday, the House of Commons voted in the early stages of the European Union Withdrawal Bill to give the government sweeping powers to make laws without parliamentary scrutiny. These powers are named after Henry VIII, England’s most authoritarian monarch, but they in fact bear a greater resemblance to Hitler’s Enabling Act of 1933, which allowed the Fuhrer to bypass the Reichstag and govern by proclamation.

    Allusions to Nazi Germany are generally overwrought, but this is no exaggeration: Prime Minister Theresa May does not have an absolute majority in the British Parliament, just as Hitler didn’t in the Reichstag in 1933, which is why she has been forced to resort to his strategy. If the withdrawal bill is passed as it stands, May will be able to make laws by decree and reverse and adapt primary legislation without consulting Parliament. It is the greatest attack on the British constitution in at least a century. Parliamentary sovereignty—the very thing that Brexiteers said they were voting for in leaving the E.U.—may be about to be vastly reduced by a cabal of right-wing Conservatives who say they are obeying the people’s will. Such power grabs, of course, are always done in the name of the people. The full title of the 1933 Enabling Act was “The law to remedy the distress of the people and the state.”


    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/09/theresa-may-takes-her-darkest-most-desperate-turn-yet
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,193
    edited September 2017
    Test
This discussion has been closed.