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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Understanding the minds of punters

SystemSystem Posts: 11,721
edited September 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Understanding the minds of punters

YouGov have published some fascinating insights into punters, YouGov say

Read the full story here


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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    edited September 2017
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    In case my Mother reads this, I only bet £20 a week maximum, honest.

    And I've never even heard of spread betting.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2017
    I'm in the 5% "little or no interest"

    The extent of my gambling is directly proportional to the value in the market. I've gambled heavily on all sorts of odd sports, but when my edge disappeared, so did my interest in whatever sport it was.
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    Mr. Boris Johnson (Henley) It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly and with greater pleasure than this Bill to expand the European Union. To sum up my response, I would merely say, "And about time too.

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/2003/may/21/european-union-accessions-bill#2003-05-21T16:29:00Z
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    FPT, Dr. Fox, if something is undesirable, one should try to stop it.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    5th like Vince.
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    Mr. Boris Johnson (Henley) It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly and with greater pleasure than this Bill to expand the European Union. To sum up my response, I would merely say, "And about time too.

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/2003/may/21/european-union-accessions-bill#2003-05-21T16:29:00Z

    Entirely consistent with everything Boris said during the referendum. He was never a close the borders Faragist.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    In case my Mother reads this, I only bet £20 a week maximum, honest.

    And I've never even heard of spread betting.

    A one-time colleague of mine, who made good returns betting, had his own company called "Honest John Smith" (names changed to protect the innocent). I often wondered who would believe in the honesty of someone who proclaimed he was honest.
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    Interesting that 159 MPs did not vote - not far off the total number of Tory MPs at the time. Anyone know how the vote was whipped? Did many MPs abstain rather than vote against?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    edited September 2017
    Strange that two polls in Wales today are getting such apparently different results.
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    Mr. Boris Johnson (Henley) It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly and with greater pleasure than this Bill to expand the European Union. To sum up my response, I would merely say, "And about time too.

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/2003/may/21/european-union-accessions-bill#2003-05-21T16:29:00Z

    I was hugely supportive of EU expansion at the time too.

    The belief, for eurosceptics, was that it would make the EU both wider, and shallower, with the Eastern Europeans promoting free trade, an association of nation states, giving the EU a more Atlanticist slant, and act as a major break on integration.

    Save the formation of sceptical groups like the ECR in the EU parliament, that didn't happen.
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    FPT:
    HYUFD said:


    If automation leads to mass unemployment or underemployment with not enough replacement permanent jobs then either you ban robots at least in whole or in part or have a UBI funded by a robots tax.

    Sorry, there is no alternative and if businesses are vastly increasing their profits by slashing their human workforce and their costs and replacing them with machines they can well afford UBI.

    No, all you've accomplished is breaking the economy. Most people are now out of work or working only a few hours each week to supplement UBI, meanwhile the automated businesses are struggling as the market for their goods or services is drying up as people have little to spend. Because demand is so low the robot tax revenue starts to dry up meaning cuts to UBI or more borrowing. Maybe some businesses switch back to human labour? Why pay more than the bare minimum given the lack of jobs?

    On its own, a robot tax might be a useful revenue raiser, just forget about UBI - it is a fantastic way of driving the economy off a cliff. Communism is a more viable economic model!



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    It's fascinating how little respect some Remainers have for those who decided to vote Leave, with their failure to recognise that they too went on a journey, and the EU's behaviour was instrumental in that.

    I find the level of delusion in the EU institutions fascinating in that they feel they've done nothing wrong, and the only problem they ever had is the UK's tabloid press.
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    Strange that two polls in Wales today are getting such apparently different results.
    It is the same poll, just different questions.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,252
    edited September 2017

    Interesting that 159 MPs did not vote - not far off the total number of Tory MPs at the time. Anyone know how the vote was whipped? Did many MPs abstain rather than vote against?
    Iain Duncan Smith: "This historic summit is a tribute to the long, hard and sometimes lonely battles fought by successive British Governments to extend the benefits of EU membership to the former communist states of central and eastern Europe.

    "Enlargement may be the European Union's finest hour, but its delay reveals the vested interests in parts of the EU with which we have become all too familiar."


    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200203/cmhansrd/vo021216/debtext/21216-06.htm

    He couldn't help lying about those states being supposedly excluded from European markets in the interim (not true).
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    It's fascinating how little respect some Remainers have for those who decided to vote Leave, with their failure to recognise that they too went on a journey, and the EU's behaviour was instrumental in that.

    I find the level of delusion in the EU institutions fascinating in that they feel they've done nothing wrong, and the only problem they ever had is the UK's tabloid press.

    Support for the EU went from 67% in 1975 to 48% last year, despite the generations who were brought up under the Empire dying off.
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    Sean_F said:

    It's fascinating how little respect some Remainers have for those who decided to vote Leave, with their failure to recognise that they too went on a journey, and the EU's behaviour was instrumental in that.

    I find the level of delusion in the EU institutions fascinating in that they feel they've done nothing wrong, and the only problem they ever had is the UK's tabloid press.

    Support for the EU went from 67% in 1975 to 48% last year, despite the generations who were brought up under the Empire dying off.
    The same arguments are now being made for why we will eventually rejoin.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    edited September 2017
    It really is remarkable Paul Farrelly held on in Newcastle under Lyme, albeit by only 30 votes.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Dr. Fox, if something is undesirable, one should try to stop it.

    I agree, but it is like the rise of obesity despite the drop in the number of calories in the average Britons diet. Incidentally, such obesity is increasing internationally, both in developed and undeveloped world.

    People will exercise for pleasure, but the exercise that was built into life has been automated away, whether driving to work, housework, manual labour etc etc.

    People are going to create new jobs, as they have done in previous waves of automation. Those jobs will probably not be very physical. Probably sitting down looking at screens...
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    Mr. Boris Johnson (Henley) It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly and with greater pleasure than this Bill to expand the European Union. To sum up my response, I would merely say, "And about time too.

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/2003/may/21/european-union-accessions-bill#2003-05-21T16:29:00Z

    I was hugely supportive of EU expansion at the time too.

    The belief, for eurosceptics, was that it would make the EU both wider, and shallower, with the Eastern Europeans promoting free trade, an association of nation states, giving the EU a more Atlanticist slant, and act as a major break on integration.

    Save the formation of sceptical groups like the ECR in the EU parliament, that didn't happen.
    This section of hanard is more illuminating than 2nd reading (which deals with the principle of the bill not the substance, or at least it will until tonight's vote!) where the issue of the lack of a transitional period is highlighted in committee.
    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/2003/jun/05/freedom-of-movement-for-workers

    Most of the words from the Conservatives were of the need for reform and talk of repatriating powers like control of fisheries.
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    Mr. Boris Johnson (Henley) It is hard to think of a measure that the Government could have brought to the House that I could support more unreservedly and with greater pleasure than this Bill to expand the European Union. To sum up my response, I would merely say, "And about time too.

    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/2003/may/21/european-union-accessions-bill#2003-05-21T16:29:00Z


    Mr. Boris Johnson

    There are benefits to membership of the European Union. My only contention is that, in order to reap the benefits, it is not necessary to build a single European polity, as we appear to be trying to do—"e pluribus unum". I do not believe that we need to make, out of 15 different and disparate states, one state with a centre in Brussels. I believe that that is a mistake and I see no reason why we should agree to the constitution as currently proposed. The Minister has been involved in discussing the detail in Brussels, but there are several respects in which this is a constitution and a treaty too far.


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    Interesting that 159 MPs did not vote - not far off the total number of Tory MPs at the time. Anyone know how the vote was whipped? Did many MPs abstain rather than vote against?
    20% of Conservatives didn't bother to vote at 2nd reading
    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2003-05-21&number=212

    There were no committee votes or 3rd reading vote, just went through on the nod
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2017

    It really is remarkable Paul Farrelly held on in Newcastle under Lyme, albeit by only 30 votes.

    Keele Uni

    Results like Newcastle are what happens when the tories screw the kids, thinking the kids won't come out to vote.

    And then they do.
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    I was hugely supportive of EU expansion at the time too.

    The belief, for eurosceptics, was that it would make the EU both wider, and shallower, with the Eastern Europeans promoting free trade, an association of nation states, giving the EU a more Atlanticist slant, and act as a major break on integration.

    EU expansion happened after the launch of the Euro, so this sounds like (from your perspective) wishful thinking if not self-delusion.
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    I was hugely supportive of EU expansion at the time too.

    The belief, for eurosceptics, was that it would make the EU both wider, and shallower, with the Eastern Europeans promoting free trade, an association of nation states, giving the EU a more Atlanticist slant, and act as a major break on integration.

    EU expansion happened after the launch of the Euro, so this sounds like (from your perspective) wishful thinking if not self-delusion.
    Indeed. And I learnt my lesson, along with many others.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    edited September 2017
    chrisoxon said:

    FPT:

    HYUFD said:


    If automation leads to mass unemployment or underemployment with not enough replacement permanent jobs then either you ban robots at least in whole or in part or have a UBI funded by a robots tax.

    Sorry, there is no alternative and if businesses are vastly increasing their profits by slashing their human workforce and their costs and replacing them with machines they can well afford UBI.

    No, all you've accomplished is breaking the economy. Most people are now out of work or working only a few hours each week to supplement UBI, meanwhile the automated businesses are struggling as the market for their goods or services is drying up as people have little to spend. Because demand is so low the robot tax revenue starts to dry up meaning cuts to UBI or more borrowing. Maybe some businesses switch back to human labour? Why pay more than the bare minimum given the lack of jobs?

    On its own, a robot tax might be a useful revenue raiser, just forget about UBI - it is a fantastic way of driving the economy off a cliff. Communism is a more viable economic model!



    I was talking about introducing a robot tax and UBI in a scenario where up to 50% maybe even more are unemployed or underemployed due to automation and you are talking about breaking the economy? If that isn't a broken economy I don't know what is? If automation produced new permanent jobs to replace almost all those left then I would not advocate a robot tax or a UBI

    UBI would only be introduced because there were not enough jobs for people to do, especially fulltime ones and the only way to sustain living costs for those who were not in the minority of highly paid jobs automation created and which provided the vast bulk of company revenues from customers, those companies already having slashed their costs by automating much of their workforce.

    If the UBI and robot tax leads some businesses to switch back to human labour then all to the good.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022

    I was hugely supportive of EU expansion at the time too.

    The belief, for eurosceptics, was that it would make the EU both wider, and shallower, with the Eastern Europeans promoting free trade, an association of nation states, giving the EU a more Atlanticist slant, and act as a major break on integration.

    EU expansion happened after the launch of the Euro, so this sounds like (from your perspective) wishful thinking if not self-delusion.
    Admitting it is different from the organisation the UK signed up to in the 70s? :p
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    O/T I wonder if war is about to break out in Catalonia.
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    Strange that two polls in Wales today are getting such apparently different results.
    It is the same poll, just different questions.
    Very contradictory responses then.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214

    Strange that two polls in Wales today are getting such apparently different results.
    41/42% back hard Brexit or Leave, the remainder just split 50/50 soft Brexit or Remain or go fully Remain if there is no soft Brexit option given to them
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    Just saying.

    Cambridge graduates named most employable in the UK

    https://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/09/11/cambridge-graduates-named-employable-uk-97593
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Sean_F said:

    O/T I wonder if war is about to break out in Catalonia.

    Isn't our Southam over there? I hope he keeps his head down!
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    Strange that two polls in Wales today are getting such apparently different results.
    It is the same poll, just different questions.
    Very contradictory responses then.
    OGH has been desperate for 15 months to find a shift to Remain, and excitedly tweets any MoE poll.
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    Sean_F said:

    O/T I wonder if war is about to break out in Catalonia.

    It's no wonder Gibraltarians don't want to join that bunch of charlatans.
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    Gibraltar

    This (long) thread on Gibraltar is very comprehensive on why Brexit does *not* offer any of the claimed opportunities.
    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/906141101253386240

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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Fpt
    Oscar Wilde wrote The Soul of Man under Socialism about how we would sit around being cultured while the machines did all the work. Problem is you need the socialism bit because otherwise Greedy Bastards Inc own the machines and want to maximise shareholder value at the expense of anything else. Conversely if you have socialism you have a nomenklatura reaping all the benefits. So either way it's eloi and morlocks, spartiates and helots or whatever. Our best hope is Elon Musk invents strong AI and presents it to everyone.
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    Sean_F said:

    O/T I wonder if war is about to break out in Catalonia.

    It is worrying. If I were a Catalan the actions of the Spanish government would be making me want independence more and more. The irony is that a few years ago the support for Catalan independence was very small. The bullying tactics of the Spanish government combined with the Supreme Court in throwing out the autonomy deal that had been reached between the Central and Catalan governments have pushed people against the wall where they are fighting back.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022

    Just saying.

    Cambridge graduates named most employable in the UK

    https://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/09/11/cambridge-graduates-named-employable-uk-97593

    Bugger. Shouldn't have gone to Hull.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fpt
    Oscar Wilde wrote The Soul of Man under Socialism about how we would sit around being cultured while the machines did all the work. Problem is you need the socialism bit because otherwise Greedy Bastards Inc own the machines and want to maximise shareholder value at the expense of anything else. Conversely if you have socialism you have a nomenklatura reaping all the benefits. So either way it's eloi and morlocks, spartiates and helots or whatever. Our best hope is Elon Musk invents strong AI and presents it to everyone.

    I don't want to be Eloi, but that's inevitable if we let robots do everything important.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I wonder if war is about to break out in Catalonia.

    It is worrying. If I were a Catalan the actions of the Spanish government would be making me want independence more and more. The irony is that a few years ago the support for Catalan independence was very small. The bullying tactics of the Spanish government combined with the Supreme Court in throwing out the autonomy deal that had been reached between the Central and Catalan governments have pushed people against the wall where they are fighting back.
    I think there are faults on each side.

    If I were a pro-Spanish Catalan (a large minority) I would be just as annoyed by the Catalan government.
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    West Ham finally score a goal :)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    West Ham finally score a goal :)

    Two
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited September 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fpt
    Oscar Wilde wrote The Soul of Man under Socialism about how we would sit around being cultured while the machines did all the work. Problem is you need the socialism bit because otherwise Greedy Bastards Inc own the machines and want to maximise shareholder value at the expense of anything else. Conversely if you have socialism you have a nomenklatura reaping all the benefits. So either way it's eloi and morlocks, spartiates and helots or whatever. Our best hope is Elon Musk invents strong AI and presents it to everyone.

    I don't want to be Eloi, but that's inevitable if we let robots do everything important.
    I'd love to live in an AI-run, post-scarcity civilization like Iain M. Banks' "Culture". Some argue that the rôle of humans in the Culture is to be effectively pets of the "Minds" (super-intelligent AIs) that de facto[1] run the show, but it seems pretty attractive to me.

    [1] De jure[2] what government there is in the avowedly anarcho-communist Culture is direct democracy.

    [2] Actually a silly term to use in a society that has no laws.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,930
    OT. Listening to the one o'clock news and hearing Corbyn treat Blair as though he was an ignorant schoolboy wasn't very edifying. What happened to that charming man that Nick has been waxing lyrical about?
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    West Ham finally score a goal :)

    Two
    Blimey :)
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    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Strange that two polls in Wales today are getting such apparently different results.
    It is the same poll, just different questions.
    Illustrates the point that I made on the last thread that questions with a choice of 3 answers A, B and C can't be safely interpreted in terms of A+B or B+C. Essentially the Welsh voters are saying that they are now more dubious than before about Brexit, but that dubious voters are divided on whether to reverse the verdict or settle for Soft Brexit.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Just saying.

    Cambridge graduates named most employable in the UK

    https://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/09/11/cambridge-graduates-named-employable-uk-97593

    Q. What's the first thing a Cambridge graduate says when he meets you?

    A. Would you like fries with that?


    Q. What do you say to a Canbridge grad in a suit?

    A. Would the defendant please rise.

    ...I'm here all night...
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    RobD said:
    Centre should not be included with the left. They're more like a UKIP-type party who will cut deals with either right or left.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fpt
    Oscar Wilde wrote The Soul of Man under Socialism about how we would sit around being cultured while the machines did all the work. Problem is you need the socialism bit because otherwise Greedy Bastards Inc own the machines and want to maximise shareholder value at the expense of anything else. Conversely if you have socialism you have a nomenklatura reaping all the benefits. So either way it's eloi and morlocks, spartiates and helots or whatever. Our best hope is Elon Musk invents strong AI and presents it to everyone.

    I don't want to be Eloi, but that's inevitable if we let robots do everything important.
    I'd love to live in an AI-run, post-scarcity civilization like Iain M. Banks' "Culture". Some argue that the rôle of humans in the Culture is to be effectively pets of the "Minds" (super-intelligent AIs) that de facto[1] run the show, but it seems pretty attractive to me.

    [1] De jure[2] what government there is in the avowedly anarcho-communist Culture is direct democracy.

    [2] Actually a silly term to use in a society that has no laws.
    Really? Iain M Banks is excellent in parts, but the conversations between AIs are excruciatingly embarrassing, like a room full of Stephen Frys all trying to be funny.

    Which reminds me that the new Forth bridge reminded me that I must re-read The Bridge.
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    Charles said:

    Just saying.

    Cambridge graduates named most employable in the UK

    https://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/09/11/cambridge-graduates-named-employable-uk-97593

    Q. What's the first thing a Cambridge graduate says when he meets you?

    A. Would you like fries with that?


    Q. What do you say to a Canbridge grad in a suit?

    A. Would the defendant please rise.

    ...I'm here all night...

    Q. How can you tell if a Cambridge grad is in the room?

    A. The light bulb is brighter.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Just saying.

    Cambridge graduates named most employable in the UK

    https://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/09/11/cambridge-graduates-named-employable-uk-97593

    Q. What's the first thing a Cambridge graduate says when he meets you?

    A. Would you like fries with that?


    Q. What do you say to a Canbridge grad in a suit?

    A. Would the defendant please rise.

    ...I'm here all night...

    Q. How can you tell if a Cambridge grad is in the room?

    A. The light bulb is brighter.

    Q. What do you call a Cambridge grad with two brain cells?

    A. Pregnant
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    Checks to see if it is the lagershed?

    Yay it is, I can tell some shocking jokes now.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    edited September 2017

    Checks to see if it is the lagershed?

    Yay it is, I can tell some shocking jokes now.

    Q. How long do Cambridge graduates take to write jokes?

    A. Tick tock

    :)
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    Mortimer said:

    Checks to see if it is the lagershed?

    Yay it is, I can tell some shocking jokes now.

    Q. How long do Cambridge graduates take to write jokes?

    A. Tick tock

    :)
    I'm writing the morning thread and the afternoon thread, I'm multi-tasking and putting in a dig about Oxford in both.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mortimer said:

    Checks to see if it is the lagershed?

    Yay it is, I can tell some shocking jokes now.

    Q. How long do Cambridge graduates take to write jokes?

    A. Tick tock

    :)
    I'm writing the morning thread and the afternoon thread, I'm multi-tasking and putting in a dig about Oxford in both.
    Say what you like about Oxford, it's the best university in anywhere called Oxford. #Harvard
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    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I wonder if war is about to break out in Catalonia.

    It is worrying. If I were a Catalan the actions of the Spanish government would be making me want independence more and more. The irony is that a few years ago the support for Catalan independence was very small. The bullying tactics of the Spanish government combined with the Supreme Court in throwing out the autonomy deal that had been reached between the Central and Catalan governments have pushed people against the wall where they are fighting back.
    I think there are faults on each side.

    If I were a pro-Spanish Catalan (a large minority) I would be just as annoyed by the Catalan government.
    Indeed but they're on a different scale. The Catalan government is trying to do it the democratic way just like the Quebecois and the Scots. Just like all of those though the unionists could defeat them democratically. Instead the Spanish are using bully boy tactics trying to deny any say rather than win the vote.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2017

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.

    Also it is odd for the bully to be attacked by the subject of the bullying.
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    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    That point is well-made.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2017

    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    We survive French dock strikes. Where there is a will there is a way.
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    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    Project Fear :lol:
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    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    We survive French dock strikes. Where there is a will there is a way.
    Where there's a will, there's a family... of European nations protecting their interests.
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    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    We survive French dock strikes. Where there is a will there is a way.
    There is plenty of great British food and drink. Time we supported our own food and drink
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    So when you're near me, Donald can't you hear me SOS.
    https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/907353728939945986
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    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    We survive French dock strikes. Where there is a will there is a way.
    Where there's a will, there's a family... of European nations protecting their interests.
    Sounds like a mafia
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fpt
    Oscar Wilde wrote The Soul of Man under Socialism about how we would sit around being cultured while the machines did all the work. Problem is you need the socialism bit because otherwise Greedy Bastards Inc own the machines and want to maximise shareholder value at the expense of anything else. Conversely if you have socialism you have a nomenklatura reaping all the benefits. So either way it's eloi and morlocks, spartiates and helots or whatever. Our best hope is Elon Musk invents strong AI and presents it to everyone.

    I don't want to be Eloi, but that's inevitable if we let robots do everything important.
    I'd love to live in an AI-run, post-scarcity civilization like Iain M. Banks' "Culture". Some argue that the rôle of humans in the Culture is to be effectively pets of the "Minds" (super-intelligent AIs) that de facto[1] run the show, but it seems pretty attractive to me.

    [1] De jure[2] what government there is in the avowedly anarcho-communist Culture is direct democracy.

    [2] Actually a silly term to use in a society that has no laws.
    Really? Iain M Banks is excellent in parts, but the conversations between AIs are excruciatingly embarrassing, like a room full of Stephen Frys all trying to be funny.

    Which reminds me that the new Forth bridge reminded me that I must re-read The Bridge.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/906240711221239809
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    We survive French dock strikes. Where there is a will there is a way.
    Where there's a will, there's a family... of European nations protecting their interests.
    Sounds like a mafia
    No, I think he meant Prince Will.

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    Just saying.

    Cambridge graduates named most employable in the UK

    https://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/09/11/cambridge-graduates-named-employable-uk-97593

    Of course. We Oxford graduates often employ them.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2017
    So, to be clear, the EU warning the UK that there would be disagreeable consequences if there is no deal is good, but the UK warning the EU that there would be disagreeable consequences if there is no deal is bad?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    It is only fresh produce that would rot in the traffic. Prosecco might be a little warm,but the rest would merely be an unfortunate rerun of the great courgette crisis of 2017.

    Brexit will be a bit crap, but the return to being the sick man of Europe will be a slow one rather than a car crash.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022

    So, to be clear, the EU warning the UK that there would be disagreeable consequences if there is no deal is good, but the UK warning the EU that there would be disagreeable consequences if there is no deal is bad?

    You are williamglenn and I claim my £2

    :p
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited September 2017

    philiph said:

    Remain were right, Brexit would lead to a less secure Europe.

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/907339079343382528

    I thought we were too small, insignificant and in a terribly weak position, so this headline must be wrong, how can such an insignificant appendage on the edge of the continent bully the mighty morally magnificent EU?

    Fact. We spend more on military than most of all other individual EU nations.
    Militarily we're the pre-eminent EU power, but that won't be worth a pitcher of warm piss if we get a Hard Brexit that sees things like food held up in delays at Dover in April 2019.
    It is only fresh produce that would rot in the traffic. Prosecco might be a little warm,but the rest would merely be an unfortunate rerun of the great courgette crisis of 2017.

    Brexit will be a bit crap, but the return to being the sick man of Europe will be a slow one rather than a car crash.
    Two mid-term consequences of EU food being held up at EU ports - import substitution (with both domestic alternatives and imports from alternative origins, and fewer UK imports from other countries being transshipped through EU ports. That will drive up UK import costs, but presumably add some UK jobs. The EU also loses as a result of both.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    So when you're near me, Donald can't you hear me SOS.
    https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/907353728939945986

    So those aerospace jobs in Belfast will effectively be victims of Brexit. Without Brexit, the UK govt could threaten to do to Boeing what they're doing to us. With Brexit, we're too scared of souring trading relations with the US.
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    Dadge said:

    So when you're near me, Donald can't you hear me SOS.
    https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/907353728939945986

    So those aerospace jobs in Belfast will effectively be victims of Brexit. Without Brexit, the UK govt could threaten to do to Boeing what they're doing to us. With Brexit, we're too scared of souring trading relations with the US.
    ...except that without Brexit we don't have control of tariffs and therefore couldn't introduce punitive tariffs in retaliation. Besides, is this really the territory you want to fight on - "Brexit means we can't have a trade war with the US"?

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    edited September 2017
    Lab amendment:

    Yes: 296
    No: 318

    Govt Maj: 22

    Govt maj maybe a bit less than expected if up to 10 Lab rebels.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    MikeL said:

    Lab amendment:

    Yes: 296
    No: 318

    Govt Maj: 22

    Govt maj maybe a bit less than expected if up to 10 Lab rebels.

    Why so small numbers? 317 BTW
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    edited September 2017
    21 abstentions - seems high.

    Max vote: 650 - 7 SF - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers = 635.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    BBC says 318.
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    The exit from Brexit draws nearer.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-41230610

    The Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has said she would campaign to remain in the European Union if another referendum were to be held.

    In an interview with BBC director of news James Harding she said she was "not flying the flag for Brexit".
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    edited September 2017
    Must be several Con rebels.

    GE 318 - 2 Speakers - 2 tellers = 314 + 10 DUP = 324.

    So 6 missing at a minimum.

    NB. Counting MP who had whip withdrawn as still Con.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022

    The exit from Brexit draws nearer.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-41230610

    The Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has said she would campaign to remain in the European Union if another referendum were to be held.

    In an interview with BBC director of news James Harding she said she was "not flying the flag for Brexit".

    Remainer says they'll vote remain again shock.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    MikeL said:

    Must be several Con rebels.

    GE 318 - 2 Speakers - 2 tellers = 314 + 10 DUP = 324.

    So 6 missing at a minimum.

    NB. Counting MP who had whip withdrawn as still Con.

    Now the real fight begins.. amendments in committee.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    2nd Reading:

    Yes: 326
    No: 290

    Govt Maj: 36

    Much more like it for Govt.

    Suggests some Con rebels abstained on Lab amendment but backed Govt on 2nd Reading.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    edited September 2017
    MikeL said:

    2nd Reading:

    Yes: 326
    No: 290

    Govt Maj: 36

    Much more like it for Govt.

    Suggests some Con rebels abstained on Lab amendment but backed Govt on 2nd Reading.

    Beast of Bolsover in Tory lobby.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    MikeL said:

    2nd Reading:

    Yes: 326
    No: 290

    Govt Maj: 36

    Much more like it for Govt.

    Suggests some Con rebels abstained on Lab amendment but backed Govt on 2nd Reading.

    Looks good! :)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeL said:

    2nd Reading:

    Yes: 326
    No: 290

    Govt Maj: 36

    Much more like it for Govt.

    Suggests some Con rebels abstained on Lab amendment but backed Govt on 2nd Reading.

    Looks good! :)
    To paraphrase someone... we're allllrightttt :D:p
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    Still 19 abstentions on 2nd reading - implies some people switched sides between vote 1 and vote 2.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    BBC reporting 308 Tories 9 DUP 1 independent in 1st vote. Also 1 Inc in Aye lobby. Who are 2 independent?
This discussion has been closed.