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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another fascinating insight into Mrs May and her disastrous el

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    In fact I have made very clear on here repeatedly that I oppose the Henry VIII power grab.

    Outside of the actual need to get Brexit done and dusted

    Ok...
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    I agree, and Liz Kendall was a strong promoter of investment in early years education. There is not only evidence of educational benefit, but also wider issues such as social behaviour.

    While it is recieved wisdom that too many are going to university, the governments analysis of 2008 graduates does show a surprisingly flat curve in terms of employment and earnings 5 years out by institute and subject. This applies pretty much across subjects and isn't even that different when looking at A level entry. Graduates on 240 points earn £2500 pa less than those on 360 five years out, a smaller difference than some might imagine. That is the difference between AAA and CCC as I recall.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/graduate-outcomes-by-degree-subject-and-university

    Of course these figures are across the spectrum. so will incorporate both the hamburger flipper, and the low paid clergy or post docs, and of course those working part time.

    Almost every other country in Europe has kids starting school at 6 and Finland it is 7. They certainly do not seem to think that it is too old. And no, it is not beneficial. In fact an article in New Scientist a few years ago said that starting at 5 was 'harmful and misguided'.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029435-000-too-much-too-young-should-schooling-start-at-age-7/
    We are at cross purposes, indeed in rare agreement. Until age 7 Nursery/Kindergarten should mostly be about learning via play, without formal curricula or assessment. The object is a diverse range of stimulation, including exploring nature, drawing, music, listening to stories etc. Pretty much anything that is not electronic, or on a screen. They need actual reality not virtual reality. They will get enough of that at home. I am happy for formal learning to start later at age 7, for much the same reasons that you give.
    Agree with all of that. Now we just need to persuade the Government...
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    Scott_P said:

    In fact I have made very clear on here repeatedly that I oppose the Henry VIII power grab.

    Outside of the actual need to get Brexit done and dusted

    Ok...
    One does not preclude the other. Indeed the point is that Brexit can be done and dusted without the executive power grab. All it does is antagonize both Brexit supporters and opponents and makes the whole thing more likely to meet opposition.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    The one thing I am sure off - the EU will pressure jobs in Irish finance and American tax avoiding companies out of the Irish Republic and move them to the central EU states. The Irish don't matter to the EU.
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    Scott_P said:

    Everyone has priorities. Mine is securing Brexit.

    A solution to no existing problems, and creator of countless new ones.

    Brexit trumps reason.
    Only because you are in utter denial about the aims and ambitions of the EU. Thankfully your ignorance can no longer cause us any harm as we are leaving.
    Suppose everything goes well for the EU and they fully realise their end state in 20 years time. What do you think the budget of the EU will be as a percentage of GDP?
    No idea. And again you miss the point. It 8s not about money. It is about accountability and individual freedom.
    The legal basis of the EU is not going to change - it's a system of treaties between sovereign states.

    Money is measurable and allows you to quantify the scale of the extent to which you think we will be dominated by the EU. So what number do you think it will be?
    The legal basis of the EU has to change. In the long term monetary union is not sustainable without political union.
    It's always been a political union. There isn't some transmogrification into a political union that will happen at some unspecified date in the future.

    Even if monetary union will ultimately require a European treasury that just comes back to the question of money, which you refuse to engage with. The EU budget is currently around 1% of GDP. Realistically, how much of the state do you think will be taken up by 'the EU' in this future set up you're envisioning?
    Given the whole basis of your question is false I see no point in trying to answer it. Nor can you as the huge number of assumptions that would have to be made make it impossible.
    It's a deliberately hypothetical question. I'm just trying to understand what your bogeyman version of the EU looks like in practical terms.
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    Scott_P said:

    Everyone has priorities. Mine is securing Brexit.

    A solution to no existing problems, and creator of countless new ones.

    Brexit trumps reason.
    Only because you are in utter denial about the aims and ambitions of the EU. Thankfully your ignorance can no longer cause us any harm as we are leaving.
    Suppose everything goes well for the EU and they fully realise their end state in 20 years time. What do you think the budget of the EU will be as a percentage of GDP?
    No idea. And again you miss the point. It 8s not about money. It is about accountability and individual freedom.
    The legal basis of the EU is not going to change - it's a system of treaties between sovereign states.

    Money is measurable and allows you to quantify the scale of the extent to which you think we will be dominated by the EU. So what number do you think it will be?
    The legal basis of the EU has to change. In the long term monetary union is not sustainable without political union.
    It's always been a political union. There isn't some transmogrification into a political union that will happen at some unspecified date in the future.

    Even if monetary union will ultimately require a European treasury that just comes back to the question of money, which you refuse to engage with. The EU budget is currently around 1% of GDP. Realistically, how much of the state do you think will be taken up by 'the EU' in this future set up you're envisioning?
    Given the whole basis of your question is false I see no point in trying to answer it. Nor can you as the huge number of assumptions that would have to be made make it impossible.
    It's a deliberately hypothetical question. I'm just trying to understand what your bogeyman version of the EU looks like in practical terms.
    In practical terms it is a federal state in a constant state of near failure because of the inherent stresses caused by forcing people together. It is Yugoslavia on a continental scale.
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    Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185

    Outside of the actual need to get Brexit done and dusted

    The only thing the country needs is to get Brexit kicked into the long grass. The most stupid, idiotic, waste of time and money that has ever been forced on my country by a combination of so called "nut jobs and fruit loons" whose enduring claim to fame will be that they were consistently 'economical with the truth'.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,519
    edited September 2017

    It's a deliberately hypothetical question. I'm just trying to understand what your bogeyman version of the EU looks like in practical terms.

    In practical terms it is a federal state in a constant state of near failure because of the inherent stresses caused by forcing people together. It is Yugoslavia on a continental scale.
    The EU has already been around for 60 years if you take the Treaty of Rome as the starting point. Yugoslavia lasted only 74 years. Perhaps there is simply no valid comparison between the two.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2017
    PAW said:

    The one thing I am sure off - the EU will pressure jobs in Irish finance and American tax avoiding companies out of the Irish Republic and move them to the central EU states. The Irish don't matter to the EU.

    I think that the evidence is to the contrary. By making the Irish border question one of the three inital negotiating areas, the EU27 have made ROI the only EU27 country that is singly represented.

    Brexit is more likely to move companies to ROI, for an English speaking EU HQ, than away from it. Sure, Ireland will suffer most of the EU27, but it also has plenty of opportunity from Brexit.

    The EU will always have internal strains and politics. What federal organisation does not? The strong growth in the EZ economy this year does suggest that it is they that have been shackled to a corpse, not us.
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    Ally_B said:

    Outside of the actual need to get Brexit done and dusted

    The only thing the country needs is to get Brexit kicked into the long grass. The most stupid, idiotic, waste of time and money that has ever been forced on my country by a combination of so called "nut jobs and fruit loons" whose enduring claim to fame will be that they were consistently 'economical with the truth'.
    Well it's a view but certainly not a rational one nor, thankfully, one supported by the vast majority of people. When even Ken Clarke says it must now happen it is only the real extremists who still.think it could or should be stopped.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Ally_B said:

    Outside of the actual need to get Brexit done and dusted

    The only thing the country needs is to get Brexit kicked into the long grass. The most stupid, idiotic, waste of time and money that has ever been forced on my country by a combination of so called "nut jobs and fruit loons" whose enduring claim to fame will be that they were consistently 'economical with the truth'.
    Not BREXITing will be the end of Westminster.

    Pretty sure I'd rather keep something that has endured for hundreds of years and provided us with tremendous internal stability and security, and over which we have control, than some far off capital of which we know little and control even less.
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    It's a deliberately hypothetical question. I'm just trying to understand what your bogeyman version of the EU looks like in practical terms.

    In practical terms it is a federal state in a constant state of near failure because of the inherent stresses caused by forcing people together. It is Yugoslavia on a continental scale.
    The EU has already been around for 60 years if you take the Treaty of Rome as the starting point. Yugoslavia lasted only 74 years. Perhaps there is simply no valid comparison between the two.
    Thr EU has not yet attained the level of centralised control endured by Yugoslavia even though that remains the aim. So your claims lack validity.
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    It's a deliberately hypothetical question. I'm just trying to understand what your bogeyman version of the EU looks like in practical terms.

    In practical terms it is a federal state in a constant state of near failure because of the inherent stresses caused by forcing people together. It is Yugoslavia on a continental scale.
    The EU has already been around for 60 years if you take the Treaty of Rome as the starting point. Yugoslavia lasted only 74 years. Perhaps there is simply no valid comparison between the two.
    Thr EU has not yet attained the level of centralised control endured by Yugoslavia even though that remains the aim. So your claims lack validity.
    You think the aim is a one-party state with a dictator for life?
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    williamglenn - how do you vote Junker out - if Merkel wants to keep him?
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    PAW said:

    williamglenn - how do you vote Junker out - if Merkel wants to keep him?

    The European parliament has the power to sack him.
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    It's a deliberately hypothetical question. I'm just trying to understand what your bogeyman version of the EU looks like in practical terms.

    In practical terms it is a federal state in a constant state of near failure because of the inherent stresses caused by forcing people together. It is Yugoslavia on a continental scale.
    The EU has already been around for 60 years if you take the Treaty of Rome as the starting point. Yugoslavia lasted only 74 years. Perhaps there is simply no valid comparison between the two.
    Austria-Hungary lasted only 51 years.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    foxinsoxuk - the EU Commision statements on the border amount to this - the Irish Republic should not gain tariff free movement of its farming exports across the border, and, the Irish Republic should not find it easy to import goods across the border unless the EU has its take. And the Republic will have to pay for the border guards.

    The EU Commission principle is this - the Irish Republic should not find any benefit unless the core EU countries can have the same. If the UK was to give the Irish Republic free access to its markets, the EU would try to prevent it.

    There isn't any future for Salesforce type call centres from the Irish Republic, there will be no tax advantage as tax is equalised across the EU the EU will not allow it. In fact the UK will be the only place to establish a company to sell into the UK. The small countries in the EU will get a kicking.
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    PAW said:

    foxinsoxuk - the EU Commision statements on the border amount to this - the Irish Republic should not gain tariff free movement of its farming exports across the border, and, the Irish Republic should not find it easy to import goods across the border unless the EU has its take. And the Republic will have to pay for the border guards.

    The EU Commission principle is this - the Irish Republic should not find any benefit unless the core EU countries can have the same. If the UK was to give the Irish Republic free access to its markets, the EU would try to prevent it.

    This article gives a good analysis of some of the real complexities and state of the negotiations:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0909/903432-brexit-connelly/
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    Ally_B said:

    Outside of the actual need to get Brexit done and dusted

    The only thing the country needs is to get Brexit kicked into the long grass. The most stupid, idiotic, waste of time and money that has ever been forced on my country by a combination of so called "nut jobs and fruit loons" whose enduring claim to fame will be that they were consistently 'economical with the truth'.
    LEAVE 52%
    REMAIN 48%

    :innocent:
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    williamglenn - the only thing you need to know about the EU is - what has happened to Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. And the Irish Republic is politically less important to the EU than any of them.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,432
    PAW said:

    williamglenn - the only thing you need to know about the EU is - what has happened to Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. And the Irish Republic is politically less important to the EU than any of them.

    Did you know that since the start of the Euro, employment growth in Spain, Ireland and Portugal has outstripped the US?
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    To the casual observer it is clear that brexit in its initial plan and Tm are dead men walking. The question is what is next. Who is able to negotiate an agreement that is better than what we had but acceptable to merkel. I used to be skeptical about Ruth Davidson taking on this role but maybe it is worth taking another look at her. Unlike the rest of the Tory party she is a proven winner.
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