politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end o

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 77% chance that TMay’ll make it to the end of the year which seems about right

In the immediate aftermath of the disappointing general election for the Conservatives George Osborne suggested that the the Prime Minister was “a dead woman walking” a view that was shared by many who expected an early resignation.

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HYUFD

May will stay at least until Brexit negotiations are over in March 2019, then and only then will Boris and Davis likely face each other in the membership ballot. Boris has no interest in challenging until Brexit is completed, he wants to take the leadership with clean hands and free of any compromises or unpopular outcomes emerging from any deal and Davis of course has his hands full negotiating the deal.

Of course May's 'failure' still secured the Tories 42% of the vote, their highest voteshare in 25 years, even if she was obviously disappointed to have to do a deal with her allies in the DUP to obtain a parliamentary majority rather than govern with an increased overall majority