politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2017 gloss start to come off Corbyn
For only the second time since the shock General Election outcome YouGov has carried out a favourability poll on the main parties and their leaders and the contrast with the post election survey is striking.
Second like Jezza. This is no great surprise. Corbyn is good at campaigns. Poor at everything else. May is much better the less we see or hear from her.
Edit...second when I started fourth by the time I finished. There must be an amusing, satirical simile somewhere in there, but am unable to find it.
The London rents have plateued in past few months, but the expansion of licencing requirements (designating them as HMOs with a licence required) to all landlords renting to 3+ tenants is reducing rental stock and increasing prices in the councils that have introduced it. Newham being the most "enthusiastic" in enforcing it to all and watching rents rise by 50% in 5 years to 2016, third highest % rise in London. There are even mortgage difficulties for landlords where an HMO designation is communicated by the council to the mortgage company who then use it as an excuse to end a BTL mortgage (on low rates) even though the property had 3 or more bedrooms!
I agree with your sentiment about decisions to effectively in some areas ban shared houses and HMOs, driven partly by prejudice-based NIMBY campaigns.
In Oxford it is comical - the Keystone Kops Council have made it very difficult to do eg loft conversions to increase density, so single professionals who could live in such "Friends" style houses are driven to buy small houses, which are then no longer available to the less well off young couples who need small houses for their young families.
And because 2 sharers is not an HMO which need far more complex adaptation / management, there has been an increase in such dwellings - which also does not help young families.
And that is a driver for Oxford Council demanding that they be allowed to put new housing on other Councils' greenfield land. And that is also leaving aside their desire to force students into expensive University accommodation rather than less expensive shared houses, which would seem to be in contradiction of their declared aims.
As I understand Newham it is *all* rented property which require licenses. It seems not to matter that the scheme was launched on the basis of faked up claims about eg the entire Borough (incl. eg Muswell Hill) comprising a "failed housing market area". Councils are almost impossible to hold to practical account in this policy area.
I could link to the published data where Newham estimated that their systems are so efficient that it cost them about £20-30 to cash a cheque or check a record at the Land Registry.
At present Nottingham are attempting to impose something similar, which will cost each rented house about £100-200 a year - for an inexpensive property that is an extra week of rent.
I have no sympathy for those landlords, however. If they are renting out a house on a normal BTL mortgage as an HMO, then those who have been sanctioned by their Lenders will be in violation of their mortgage terms (otherwise they couldn't do it), and may well be committing fraud plus perhaps not having a house safe enough to be an HMO (quality of fire alarm etc). Such should be cracked down on *hard*. Running larger HMOs is a job for professionals.
On a PS, there is now an additional Govt check where a Council wish to impose a "Selective Landlord Licensing" scheme to more than 20% of their area. They have to convince the Minister, which at least for the present will act as a sanity check.
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that perhaps Rwanda isn't a fully-functioning multi-party democracy?
You'd think so, but that raises the question of why so many respectable publications are always informing us that Rwanda has the highest proportion of female parliamentarians of any country in the world.
If Brucey - who in physical shape looked fitter and spritelier than me, or at least more rhythmic, just a couple of years ago - can't make it to 90, what hope do I have of getting to 100? Think I'm just going to have to retire earlier if I want a long retirement.
In the mid-90s, when he was both hosting Bruce's Price is Right and Play Your Card Rights, he had two separate regular shows in BARB's top 10 list by audience ratings. Both frequently pulled in about 7 million viewed if I recall correctly, a number that only Corrie could reach last week now we've all gone multi-channel. The stuff was fluff, sure, but that's a remarkable feat to sustain, requiring a real connection with a wide audience, that very few TV personalities can manage - yet will likely go unremarked in his obituaries, because he did so much other stuff too. What an extraordinary entertainment career.
The suspects in the attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils were planning one or more bigger attacks than those that were carried out, police say.
Catalonia's police chief said blasts in a town south of Barcelona on Wednesday deprived the plotters of bomb material, forcing them to carry out simpler attacks using vehicles to ram crowds.
Setting himself up to launch the Little England Independence Party?
There are a small number of Leave voters in England who not only wanted to Leave the EU but Scotland to go independent too and indeed a number of SNP voters also voted Leave
Setting himself up to launch the Little England Independence Party?
Staines is not a Little Englander though. The piece is right in line with his oft-expressed worldviews. Don't know if he'd feel truly at home in any UK party - I don't think we have an equivalent of the Irish late-lamented Progressive Democrats, do we?
Incidentally, I think his argument is partly fallacious. There are lots of smaller countries, ergo it's no surprise to see lots of small countries top various international comparison charts. Moreover, small states show wider inter-state variance in sociodemographic indicators than if you amalgamated them into larger states. The positive outliers show up as shining examples in such "top 10" lists. The negative outliers go unremarked. Thought experiment: imagine Germany chopped up into its post-Napoleonic tapestry of borders. How many Germanic microstates would join Luxembourg (one of the few that didn't get incorporated into the German Empire after the Franco-Prussian War) among the suggested "best places in the world", even if switching from a large to small state produced zero change in their quality of governance?
I'm sure that being perceived to be an apologist for the gangs of men who rape schoolgirls will not do Jezza's ratings any harm at all...
He is very lucky the newscycle was otherwise distracted. The quote reads awfully, not wanting to criticize a particular group, but in the same breath banging on about "whites" committing lots of crimes.
And this is the reason why the Brexiters are not happy in victory and why they keep asking for more. Winning and having their demands met strips them of the victim status they wallow in. So their moment of triumph in the Referendum was also the moment of their defeat, and the reason they so assiduously seek out signs of betrayal is that betrayal is what would most readily allow a return to the comfort zone of victimhood. For the same reason, the narrative of being 'punished' by the EU is actually appealing to them. Likewise, only by constantly asking for more can they hope to reach the point where they are told they can have no more and, in that moment, again feel the masochistic thrill of being aggrieved.
This is complete and utter balls. It sounds quite clever, because mock mass-psychoanalysis often does sound clever what with all those long words and stuff, but it is stupid. It isn't a coherent argument at all. It barely qualifies as a straw man. It assumes that one's opponents are homogeneous (dangerous and wrong), that they have all the horrible characteristics one hopes that one's opponents would have (wishful thinking and wrong), that their psychology, emotional state are motivations are as pathetic as one would hope they would be (still wrong).
I'm sorry, they are powerful words and well-written, but it is total and utter guff. And yes, Brexiteers write total balls too, particularly when they got on their high horses about "traitors" and so on. But this is balls.
Just wondering, how many runs against the West Indies would really be taking the piss....1000?
If Cook were to beat Lara's record that would really say something. He may run out of partners at this rate though.
Well it would say to be that the West Indies bowling attack probably isn't even good enough to play in the Birmingham League.
I think that's already possibly the case. If I was Cook I'd be fancying my chances at that record this Test. I hope we don't declare while he's still batting.
Is there a similar one for Trump's reaction to Charlottesville?
Comparing it to Corbyn, right?
Er, no. That wouldn't be similar at all, now would it? I meant of course to compare Trump's reaction to the Charlottesville terrorist attack to the Muslim ones. But you knew that.
The Arnold Schwarzenegger video is quite something too:
Nice ones Romney and Schwarzenegger. I'm beginning to worry that just thinking of Trump is affecting my blood pressure. More, and more intense, exercise might help.
And this is the reason why the Brexiters are not happy in victory and why they keep asking for more. Winning and having their demands met strips them of the victim status they wallow in. So their moment of triumph in the Referendum was also the moment of their defeat, and the reason they so assiduously seek out signs of betrayal is that betrayal is what would most readily allow a return to the comfort zone of victimhood. For the same reason, the narrative of being 'punished' by the EU is actually appealing to them. Likewise, only by constantly asking for more can they hope to reach the point where they are told they can have no more and, in that moment, again feel the masochistic thrill of being aggrieved.
This is complete and utter balls. It sounds quite clever, because mock mass-psychoanalysis often does sound clever what with all those long words and stuff, but it is stupid. It isn't a coherent argument at all. It barely qualifies as a straw man. It assumes that one's opponents are homogeneous (dangerous and wrong), that they have all the horrible characteristics one hopes that one's opponents would have (wishful thinking and wrong), that their psychology, emotional state are motivations are as pathetic as one would hope they would be (still wrong).
I'm sorry, they are powerful words and well-written, but it is total and utter guff. And yes, Brexiteers write total balls too, particularly when they got on their high horses about "traitors" and so on. But this is balls.
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that perhaps Rwanda isn't a fully-functioning multi-party democracy?
You'd think so, but that raises the question of why so many respectable publications are always informing us that Rwanda has the highest proportion of female parliamentarians of any country in the world.
I think that, by and large, Kagame has done well, but that result is a farce.
Not surprised. Both Corbyn and May are pretty terrible.
Both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Romney's statements are fantastic. Loved Schwarzenegger's statement in particular, I thought it was very eloquent. I also see that James Murdoch isn't too happy with Trump's reaction to Charlottesville either. It'll be very interesting to see where this goes from here. I agreed with some Conservative commentators on Twitter that the Democrats need to focus more on Trump's Charlottesville statements than the Confederate statues issue (as much as I agree with many Democrats on that).
Re Rees-Mogg @Big_G_NorthWales I haven't read anything that indicates he's winning over significant numbers of Tory MPs, or indeed that those who weren't already right leaning/anti-Corbyn support him. For the most part it seems he generating ethnuaism mostly among those who already voted Conservative. Surely they need to err, convince some of those who didn't vote for them in June that they should switch their vote? Perhaps the next Tory leader is someone not even on the radar right now.
Not surprised. Both Corbyn and May are pretty terrible.
Both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Romney's statements are fantastic. Loved Schwarzenegger's statement in particular, I thought it was very eloquent. I also see that James Murdoch isn't too happy with Trump's reaction to Charlottesville either. It'll be very interesting to see where this goes from here. I agreed with some Conservative commentators on Twitter that the Democrats need to focus more on Trump's Charlottesville statements than the Confederate statues issue (as much as I agree with many Democrats on that).
Re Rees-Mogg @Big_G_NorthWales I haven't read anything that indicates he's winning over significant numbers of Tory MPs, or indeed that those who weren't already right leaning/anti-Corbyn support him. For the most part it seems he generating ethnuaism mostly among those who already voted Conservative. Surely they need to err, convince some of those who didn't vote for them in June that they should switch their vote? Perhaps the next Tory leader is someone not even on the radar right now.
Understand the logic, but actually disagree that we need more Tory voters.
Not surprised. Both Corbyn and May are pretty terrible.
Both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Romney's statements are fantastic. Loved Schwarzenegger's statement in particular, I thought it was very eloquent. I also see that James Murdoch isn't too happy with Trump's reaction to Charlottesville either. It'll be very interesting to see where this goes from here. I agreed with some Conservative commentators on Twitter that the Democrats need to focus more on Trump's Charlottesville statements than the Confederate statues issue (as much as I agree with many Democrats on that).
Re Rees-Mogg @Big_G_NorthWales I haven't read anything that indicates he's winning over significant numbers of Tory MPs, or indeed that those who weren't already right leaning/anti-Corbyn support him. For the most part it seems he generating ethnuaism mostly among those who already voted Conservative. Surely they need to err, convince some of those who didn't vote for them in June that they should switch their vote? Perhaps the next Tory leader is someone not even on the radar right now.
Understand the logic, but actually disagree that we need more Tory voters. We need more of the left to vote Lib Dem :-)
Especially where the Lib Dems can win the seat! I don`t often agree with you, Mr Mortimer, but I do on that one!
Not surprised. Both Corbyn and May are pretty terrible.
Both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Romney's statements are fantastic. Loved Schwarzenegger's statement in particular, I thought it was very eloquent. I also see that James Murdoch isn't too happy with Trump's reaction to Charlottesville either. It'll be very interesting to see where this goes from here. I agreed with some Conservative commentators on Twitter that the Democrats need to focus more on Trump's Charlottesville statements than the Confederate statues issue (as much as I agree with many Democrats on that).
Re Rees-Mogg @Big_G_NorthWales I haven't read anything that indicates he's winning over significant numbers of Tory MPs, or indeed that those who weren't already right leaning/anti-Corbyn support him. For the most part it seems he generating ethnuaism mostly among those who already voted Conservative. Surely they need to err, convince some of those who didn't vote for them in June that they should switch their vote? Perhaps the next Tory leader is someone not even on the radar right now.
Understand the logic, but actually disagree that we need more Tory voters.
We need more of the left to vote Lib Dem :-)
Given the brief bits of information I've read on Labour's Brexit position in recent weeks, I'd say that it's unlikely the LDs are going to take many votes from Labour. It looks like they are veering towards less of a hard Brexit position, which means that even discontented Remainers are likely to remain with them. Besides, although many who voted Labour are Remainers, they voted for Corbyn for reasons that were more than just disliking TMay's position on Brexit. The LDs right now, are still positioning themselves as the anti-Brexit party. While I agree with much of what Cable says, the LDs are going to need to be more than that if they want to take votes from Labour. Which right now, I see little signs of them doing, or at least doing it successfully.
I still believe that Corbyn is a liability to Labour getting elected.
I doubt very much he'll still be around by the next GE. I doubt he'd have made it to 2020 had it not been for the snap election (possibly a factor in calling it, get the stonking majority before he's gone).
However even now that his stock has improved due to the better than expected election loss, I doubt he'll make it to 2022. Nor are the Tories likely to go for another snap election any time soon.
I have to say i'm increasingly sick of "old people" and I'm 63 with thier sense of entitlement, rigid views and yearning for a past that is long gone. They claim they act in the interests of thier children and grand children but they don't really because they know best. Thier will be much grieving for the passing of Brucie but FGS it was bland shit thoughtless TV. Where are our young super heroes coming from? (rant over will go back in my cave)
Comments
It really was the social care issue where it swung around for May, although she was bad throughout.
Edit...second when I started fourth by the time I finished. There must be an amusing, satirical simile somewhere in there, but am unable to find it.
FPPT I agree with your sentiment about decisions to effectively in some areas ban shared houses and HMOs, driven partly by prejudice-based NIMBY campaigns.
In Oxford it is comical - the Keystone Kops Council have made it very difficult to do eg loft conversions to increase density, so single professionals who could live in such "Friends" style houses are driven to buy small houses, which are then no longer available to the less well off young couples who need small houses for their young families.
And because 2 sharers is not an HMO which need far more complex adaptation / management, there has been an increase in such dwellings - which also does not help young families.
And that is a driver for Oxford Council demanding that they be allowed to put new housing on other Councils' greenfield land. And that is also leaving aside their desire to force students into expensive University accommodation rather than less expensive shared houses, which would seem to be in contradiction of their declared aims.
As I understand Newham it is *all* rented property which require licenses. It seems not to matter that the scheme was launched on the basis of faked up claims about eg the entire Borough (incl. eg Muswell Hill) comprising a "failed housing market area". Councils are almost impossible to hold to practical account in this policy area.
I could link to the published data where Newham estimated that their systems are so efficient that it cost them about £20-30 to cash a cheque or check a record at the Land Registry.
At present Nottingham are attempting to impose something similar, which will cost each rented house about £100-200 a year - for an inexpensive property that is an extra week of rent.
I have no sympathy for those landlords, however. If they are renting out a house on a normal BTL mortgage as an HMO, then those who have been sanctioned by their Lenders will be in violation of their mortgage terms (otherwise they couldn't do it), and may well be committing fraud plus perhaps not having a house safe enough to be an HMO (quality of fire alarm etc). Such should be cracked down on *hard*. Running larger HMOs is a job for professionals.
https://www.axios.com/white-house-review-nears-end-officials-expect-bannon-firing-2474443198.html
If Brucey - who in physical shape looked fitter and spritelier than me, or at least more rhythmic, just a couple of years ago - can't make it to 90, what hope do I have of getting to 100? Think I'm just going to have to retire earlier if I want a long retirement.
In the mid-90s, when he was both hosting Bruce's Price is Right and Play Your Card Rights, he had two separate regular shows in BARB's top 10 list by audience ratings. Both frequently pulled in about 7 million viewed if I recall correctly, a number that only Corrie could reach last week now we've all gone multi-channel. The stuff was fluff, sure, but that's a remarkable feat to sustain, requiring a real connection with a wide audience, that very few TV personalities can manage - yet will likely go unremarked in his obituaries, because he did so much other stuff too. What an extraordinary entertainment career.
"Several people stabbed in Finland, police say
One man has been shot in the leg and arrested but police say they are looking for more potential suspects involved in the attack."
http://news.sky.com/story/several-people-stabbed-in-finland-police-say-10994173
Catalonia's police chief said blasts in a town south of Barcelona on Wednesday deprived the plotters of bomb material, forcing them to carry out simpler attacks using vehicles to ram crowds.
I do not think he will be PM at anytime in the future but who wins the next election and when it is is impossible to predict.
And it is not out of the question that our next PM could be called 'Jacob' - to coin a Corbyn expression he has momentum
Incidentally, I think his argument is partly fallacious. There are lots of smaller countries, ergo it's no surprise to see lots of small countries top various international comparison charts. Moreover, small states show wider inter-state variance in sociodemographic indicators than if you amalgamated them into larger states. The positive outliers show up as shining examples in such "top 10" lists. The negative outliers go unremarked. Thought experiment: imagine Germany chopped up into its post-Napoleonic tapestry of borders. How many Germanic microstates would join Luxembourg (one of the few that didn't get incorporated into the German Empire after the Franco-Prussian War) among the suggested "best places in the world", even if switching from a large to small state produced zero change in their quality of governance?
This is complete and utter balls. It sounds quite clever, because mock mass-psychoanalysis often does sound clever what with all those long words and stuff, but it is stupid. It isn't a coherent argument at all. It barely qualifies as a straw man. It assumes that one's opponents are homogeneous (dangerous and wrong), that they have all the horrible characteristics one hopes that one's opponents would have (wishful thinking and wrong), that their psychology, emotional state are motivations are as pathetic as one would hope they would be (still wrong).
I'm sorry, they are powerful words and well-written, but it is total and utter guff. And yes, Brexiteers write total balls too, particularly when they got on their high horses about "traitors" and so on. But this is balls.
Happy Birthday SeanF
Its generally been one or the other.....
Is Aaron unwell?
https://twitter.com/attn/status/898328098529083394
https://twitter.com/jonathancmunro/status/898584405190561792
I meant of course to compare Trump's reaction to the Charlottesville terrorist attack to the Muslim ones.
But you knew that.
Still doesn't make any sense but becomes more logical nonsense if so.
I don't really care about the genetic composition of murderous bustards - I do care about what motivates them.
Just thought he needed a shave and a proper haircut.
Curated news & lots of banter about #Brexit, #BluKip, #UKIP & #Trump! We are #StrongerIN the EU! #GE2017 #GenerationVote #ToriesOut
I'm beginning to worry that just thinking of Trump is affecting my blood pressure. More, and more intense, exercise might help.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/898169911578681344
https://twitter.com/FoxBusiness/status/897996427229405185
I thought the meaning - given the context - clear enough.
Unless the dog's incredibly angry. But then you get good exercise.
http://tinyurl.com/ybcoa3sn
P/S Agree about the humour MD.
Both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Romney's statements are fantastic. Loved Schwarzenegger's statement in particular, I thought it was very eloquent. I also see that James Murdoch isn't too happy with Trump's reaction to Charlottesville either. It'll be very interesting to see where this goes from here. I agreed with some Conservative commentators on Twitter that the Democrats need to focus more on Trump's Charlottesville statements than the Confederate statues issue (as much as I agree with many Democrats on that).
Re Rees-Mogg @Big_G_NorthWales I haven't read anything that indicates he's winning over significant numbers of Tory MPs, or indeed that those who weren't already right leaning/anti-Corbyn support him. For the most part it seems he generating ethnuaism mostly among those who already voted Conservative. Surely they need to err, convince some of those who didn't vote for them in June that they should switch their vote? Perhaps the next Tory leader is someone not even on the radar right now.
We need more of the left to vote Lib Dem :-)
Bibihal Uzbeki, 106, fled Afghanistan via Iran, Turkey and Greece before ending up in Sweden."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4802954/Sweden-rejects-world-s-oldest-refugee-asylum.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
However even now that his stock has improved due to the better than expected election loss, I doubt he'll make it to 2022. Nor are the Tories likely to go for another snap election any time soon.