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Four reasons from Vernon Bogdanor for why a second EU referendum is now likely. Hard to disagree. pic.twitter.com/LQqNKfharq
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Hands up who thinks the independence of Bank of England will be reversed on day 1 of Corbyn's government?
If Murdoch decides supporting Brexit is flogging a dead horse, I would expect the Sun to be absolutely brutal in skewering the Brexiteers in government.
It's no real surprise but a second referendum has exactly the same problems as the original EU Referendum. All those opposed to being in the EU could coalesce around LEAVE - all those opposed to the May deal can coalesce around NO but what then ?
There will be various reasons why people vote NO so we can't just have a binary option. There have to be other choices - leave without a deal, remain in the EU, seek further negotiation and we need to decide if the referendum is going to be merely consultative or binding in advance.
A ballot paper with four options means 25.1% could win but it wouldn't be like that. I suspect the more options the better for the Government as they will only be campaigning in support of the agreement (presumably).
Surely joining the Euro would count as substantively new terms?
And to answer a question posed on the other thread - my concern isn't the Lab manifesto. Whilst I disagree with it, if they implemented it (full stop) I don't think I would need to think about leaving the country.
My concern is about a spiral out of control - heading in the direction of a Venezuela. Obviously that would be very extreme and it would take a long time to get anywhere remotely near that bad.
But reversing BoE independence would be the sort of thing not in the manifesto which could be a precursor to wild policies which could start us at least heading in that direction.
France and Germany would be delighted to have us back in such circumstances. I could see some of the more Eurosceptic Eastern European countries might consider a veto because of the opt-out issue but the economic interest of us being a sink for their surplus population would outweigh that I feel.
A second referendum about what, exactly?
You can only have a referendum about something which is the UK's control. So it can't be a referendum on which Brexit deal we should go for: there will only be one on offer, and that will have been hammered out in tense and difficult negotiations, so it won't be alterable. If we reject the deal, there's no deal, and we'll crash out in total chaos.
Perhaps he means a referendum on whether we should accept the Brexit deal, with the alternative being remaining in the EU. But that makes no sense either. Remain on what terms, and by what mechanism? Although the legal position isn't completely clear, it seems most likely that there is no legal way of the UK unilaterally withdrawing the Article 50 notification. So that means getting the unanimous consent of at least 27 other countries, plus probably the EU parliament and perhaps various oddball regional parliaments as well. How on earth could anyone know whether that is an option which might be available, and in what timescale? In any case, by then preparations for Brexit on both sides will be well advanced; in practical terms, how do you reverse them?
In other words, the distinguished professor seems to be out with the fairies.
To bring it back to basics, a Government only has to ensure two things happen - the administration of law and the distribution of food. As long as the supply of food remains unchanged and there is enough law enforcement to maintain social order and cohesion, it doesn't really matter which party is in charge.
Denmark has kept its opt-outs by the cunning strategy of, er, staying in the EU.
However, I fail to see this vast quagmire being navigated in two years plus three years of transition, er sorry, 'implementation'. Eight to ten total? The Telegraph is owned by ultra-right-wingers - Private Eye calls them 'weirdos' - living on their own island off the coast of Sark, itself a pretty extreme tax haven.
OTOH the Sun and Times are 'only' owned by ...
I would imagine that there are plenty in the Labour Party who wouldn't want one either - though they might want to call for one as long as they don't get it. It would be hard for Corbyn to hide his way through another referendum which could divide Labour as much as, if not more than, the Tories.
But the biggest problem is what would Britain be voting on? If it's the deal, what happens if it's a No, as it probably would be (there are always more reasons to vote against something than for it). Remaining in the EU would very probably not be an option, restarting negotiations would probably not be a meaningful option, and crashing out having rejected a deal would not be a happy option.
Bogdanor is right when he says that the deal the government negotiates might not make it through parliament (though I very much doubt that the Lords will block it). He's wrong when he looks to a referendum to break the deadlock in such a scenario.
What is interesting and noteworthy is that Bogdanor implicitly now accepts the principle of popular democracy: that parliament is not sovereign de facto and whatever the constitutional theory might be, a decision of the people overrides one from parliament.
Where is a country's border in financial terms?
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
I just think it would be quite unpleasant for people like me.
https://order-order.com/2017/08/03/top-corbynistas-smart-benches-ripped/
I'm not interested in political banter.
And I'm not posting for "political campaigning purposes".
Thanks.
If Corbyn runs a bad government - Labour MPs will ditch him.
It's their duty to do so, they tried in opposition already, and most of them don't particularly like him.
They're on board now because he did quite well in the campaign. If he does badly in government he would be gone very quickly.
But sorry if I annoyed you - I didn't intend to.
I've posted - usually occasionally - on here for 12 years.
I am not - and have never - attempted to pursue an agenda.
I'm well aware that many on here basically post to campaign - they are expressing their view in an attempt to influence others.
I have no interest in any of that.
What I do appreciate is that many on here are highly knowledgeable. So if I have a question, it makes sense to ask it here - rather than to have to pay a large amount to get advice from a professional adviser - who may not be very good or have a product to sell.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/893111026870353921
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/893111463170256896
At least half of Labour MPs would choose Chukka over Corbyn today I suspect - never mind in the hypothetical disaster scenario we are discussing.
And I'm sure a few Tories could be persuaded to join a unity government.
Mr. rkrkrk, I'll believe that when I see it.
I have for some time thought this the most likely outcome.
These "histories" were not a serious attempt at political analysis but a mechanism for frightening the often elderly Mail readership into sticking with the Conservatives.
If you want to take advice from anyone who posts on here, well, that's a different matter. I'd rather seek advice from my valet as someone once said than anyone posting on here.
The terms and the mandate wouldn't be clear, and the argument would continue unfettered, just the other way round.
The events of the last 18 months can't simply be wiped clean, and a sullen, divided UK inside the EU is likely to cause more trouble than its worth.
....
Mr. Glenn, touche (although it's worth noting the EU seemed a lot more popular until people actually had a vote on it).
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/893018811212976128
Does this lead to us immediately departing the EU in a disorderly manner? Or does it lead to the EU deciding to pass a one month extension while we have an election?
I think the lesson of Greece is that the EU would grant an extension. Don't forget that the EU loses too from us crashing out. It has a big budget hole, and means less demand from one of its biggest export markets. My guess is there's a 90% chance that they'd extend to the far side of the election.
Now, the question is what happens in the event of (say) the Labour Party winning on a manifesto pledge of "renegotiating" the deal? Or if there's another hung parliament?
The problem isn't there, it's how the PM avoids getting strung uo from a lamppost by their own MPs.
Utter chaos, in other words.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/03/democrats-quietly-getting-act-together-can-smell-republican/
In the same way that E.P. Thompson and Hobsbawm were historians.
The fact that one writes with a particular view of history doesn't make one not an historian.
Then they could form a new government backed by MPs from different parties.
Chuka or Yvette Cooper could take over perhaps.
Edit - I should add because I snipped from earlier - we were discussing why Corbyn couldn't turn the UK into a total disaster, where people on this board have to flee the country etc...
It's perfectly possible Labour MPs would prop up a poor government - but if it really got that bad they would do something.
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/2/16019562/china-internet-freedom-dissent-twitter-facebook
So how and why would a British PM make such a request?
As for Sandbrook, I might not share his politics, but I thoroughly enjoyed his books on the 60s and 70s.
Which tends to dampen the enthusiasm of critics of the regime.
1) They thought it was in the national interest
2) They thought it would avoid short-term economic damage that would harm their chances of reelection
3) Having the referendum forces the populist right to defend the exit deal they'd just cut, rather than demagoguing it as a traitorous betrayal
The "how" would presumably involve making a speech of some kind, followed by a vote in parliament. But the choreography is tricky, and some Conservative MPs would be dissatisfied, to put it mildly.
And of course, they'd be signing their own political death warrants. There wouldn't be a new government in such circumstances; the Tories would refuse to take office and trigger a new election. Any other option would look like (and be) a parliamentary coup. Far more legitimate for a new election - which would naturally follow a VoNC anyway - and let the people decide. Against a failing Labour government and with the PLP in utter turmoil, why would the Tories settle for some second-rate minority administration when a landslide would be in the offing?
But the political culture in Labour is not one of toppling the leader.
I can accept (1), though I can't see how it would override either the practicalities or the constitutional difficulty of ignoring the referendum; (2) is also possible though it'd be a grotesque political misjudgement, but (3) would also be wrong: the Brexiteers in government would be hamstrung but those on the outsides, whether backbench MPs, Kippers or the likes of Arron Banks, would have no difficulty denouncing the sell-out / thin gruel etc.
There's also a possibility that external observers might be taking their propaganda at face value and over-egging the Chinese economic miracle.
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
Purely advisory, of course
Could it be framed to say: "the deal we negotiated or stay in"? Not sure. Possibly. But that would be bad also because, without Dave's deal, staying in would put us at a disadvantage.
Could it say: "the deal as negotiated or go back and renegotiate"? Well there wouldn't be any time plus the EU27 would rightly say they weren't budging so that would only allow us to get a worse deal. Or WTO.
Really, a second referendum makes no sense at all.
A referendum to rejoin would, as @freetochoose says, be an option to campaign for, but I can't see the appetite for that for another 20 years or so.
Fair enough.
I suppose an extra reason not to have a second referendum: the public isn't bright enough to understand the issues.
F1: it'll be a while before the Belgian markets go up but I've got a couple of early ideas to check. Whilst the weekend bets (admittedly with some bad luck) have been poor at the last two races, the early bets have been reasonable.
RIP
Edit:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-40818839
It seems a little off that, givenhis bast body of work, the BBC call him "Harry Potter star"
A few years back I watched a documentary about the raising of the Mary Rose, and was surprised to discover that Hardy was an acclaimed expert on the Longbow, and had been called in to look at the ones they recovered from the wreck.
New YouGov poll on Wiki but can't see anywhere else:
Con 41 (=)
Lab 44 (+1)
LD 7 (+1)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Mr. Jessop, I used to watch All Creatures Great and Small as a child. Couldn't remember a damned thing about it, except the Doctor was in it, and the theme tune (which sounds like nostalgia personified).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4NHqu64bvw
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
Thanks in advance.
A vm will do.
Unless there is prior agreement with the EU, there isn't a single question that you can ask that it is within our capability to deliver, with the exceptions of accepting the deal on offer (which may be Brexit in anything from an ultra soft form to the hard as nails version), or to reject the deal and crash out to WTO.
I think the starting point of a referendum has to be that it asks a question that it is possible to deliver. (Some may say David Camerons referendum failed that test, as Brexit is undeliverable!)
Another terrorist attack only foiled because those trying to carry them out are total morons.
techradar.com/reviews/pc-mac/laptops-portable-pcs/asus-zenbook-ux305-1264384/review
It is great and I am very happy (not so good points: shiny screen, plus no page up, page down functions).
Looking at the two side-by-side in the shop, however, the Dell XPS series has the best display out there.
= my $0.02
* just don't get a 4k screen on a laptop.
a) leaving under the terms negotiated with the EU and
b) leaving under WTO terms and any legal obligations to the EU (which are said to be few)