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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON members’ polling with Davis ahead, plots to get TMay to quit, and how the Great Repeal Bill could be scuppered

Exclusive: Tory grassroots figures call for Theresa May to consider quitting by Christmas https://t.co/2myHSMcoHT

Read the full story here

PClipp

First... and the question is: will Labour co-operate with the Lib Dems? They haven`t for the last twenty years.

Pong

Interesting survey by ESRC/Yougov

I wonder if they asked members for 2nd preferences or *are there any candidates you really couldn't vote for in a 2 way contest* type questions?

It can be difficult to judge how marmite certain MPs are among the grassroots. Figuring that out is probably the route to making money on the next con leader market.

Pong needs tables.

Roger

Apropro of nothing Just listened to a very entertaining Laura K from Brussels.......

It's not always easy to feel sorry for Mrs May but when you think that until last month the naughtiest thing she'd ever done was running through a cornfield naked and then 50 years later she went a tiny bit naughtier and had her first bet- albeit on an absolute certainty-and lost you start to wonder whether there's someone up there holding her to a higher standard than the rest of us.

Roger

A very tired Laura K talking from Brussels. Very entertaining. Turn to 3hrs 41mins exactly which is where she starts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08yn9vx#play

SquareRoot

Roger said:

Apropro of nothing Just listened to a very entertaining Laura K from Brussels.......

It's not always easy to feel sorry for Mrs May but when you think that until last month the naughtiest thing she'd ever done was running through a cornfield naked and then 50 years later she went a tiny bit naughtier and had her first bet- albeit on an absolute certainty-and lost you start to wonder whether there's someone up there holding her to a higher standard than the rest of us.

I don't think she was naked Roger, I think that's your fertile imagination....

geoffw

SquareRoot said:

Roger said:

Apropro of nothing Just listened to a very entertaining Laura K from Brussels.......

It's not always easy to feel sorry for Mrs May but when you think that until last month the naughtiest thing she'd ever done was running through a cornfield naked and then 50 years later she went a tiny bit naughtier and had her first bet- albeit on an absolute certainty-and lost you start to wonder whether there's someone up there holding her to a higher standard than the rest of us.

I don't think she was naked Roger, I think that's your fertile imagination....

More febrile.

OldKingCole

Roger said:

A very tired Laura K talking from Brussels. Very entertaining. Turn to 3hrs 41mins exactly which is where she starts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08yn9vx#play

Sounds like she’s got a bit of time off coming! Thought provoking about October, though!

DecrepitJohnL

OldKingCole said:

Roger said:

A very tired Laura K talking from Brussels. Very entertaining. Turn to 3hrs 41mins exactly which is where she starts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08yn9vx#play

Sounds like she’s got a bit of time off coming! Thought provoking about October, though!

Brexit negotiations hamstrung by a lack of direction from Number 10 -- "the hole in the doughnut".

October sees the Conservative Party conference, of course, as well as Barnier's assessment of Brexit.

For leadership betting, what are the parallels with Mrs Thatcher's downfall? From very vague memory, Mrs Thatcher came out of conference looking strong but John Major was prime minister by the end of November.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

It'd be odd if both contenders in the 2005 Conservative leadership contest ended up getting the job.

foxinsoxuk

DecrepitJohnL said:

OldKingCole said:

Roger said:

A very tired Laura K talking from Brussels. Very entertaining. Turn to 3hrs 41mins exactly which is where she starts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08yn9vx#play

Sounds like she’s got a bit of time off coming! Thought provoking about October, though!

Brexit negotiations hamstrung by a lack of direction from Number 10 -- "the hole in the doughnut".

October sees the Conservative Party conference, of course, as well as Barnier's assessment of Brexit.

For leadership betting, what are the parallels with Mrs Thatcher's downfall? From very vague memory, Mrs Thatcher came out of conference looking strong but John Major was prime minister by the end of November.

IDS got a prolonged ovation and was gone in six weeks.

Richard_H

I cannot see Theresa May still being PM by the end of this year. It was difficult enough with a small Tory majority. Now relying on DUP support, during a difficult period in Northern Ireland and all of the challenges at Westminster, will just make it impossible.

In the Autumn, TM will face difficulty with lack of any real progress with Brexit, Westminster possibly taking direct control for N.Ireland, a Budget that will fail to satisfy very many and a Government regularly losing votes in Parliament.

Not convinced that David Davis will be able to unite the Tories, as he will probably still have spreadsheet Phil as Chancellor. Given challenges ahead with people wanting more spending, the economy slowing and not much room for extra borrowing, then i would think the Tories really need new faces at the top. Why not look to the backbenches for fresh talent, rather than a tired looking cabinet, who are going to look older as each day passes ?

For a laugh, here is a video that explains Brexit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/889003470128381954/video/1

OldKingCole

Totally O/t, but I find the Boots/morning after pill story one of deja vue.
In my youth Boots did not sell condoms; the late Lady Trent, wife of Lord Trent, son of the founder did not ‘approve’. It was not until some time after her death that the company started to sell condoms.

PeterC

Richard_H said:

I cannot see Theresa May still being PM by the end of this year. It was difficult enough with a small Tory majority. Now relying on DUP support, during a difficult period in Northern Ireland and all of the challenges at Westminster, will just make it impossible.

In the Autumn, TM will face difficulty with lack of any real progress with Brexit, Westminster possibly taking direct control for N.Ireland, a Budget that will fail to satisfy very many and a Government regularly losing votes in Parliament.

Not convinced that David Davis will be able to unite the Tories, as he will probably still have spreadsheet Phil as Chancellor. Given challenges ahead with people wanting more spending, the economy slowing and not much room for extra borrowing, then i would think the Tories really need new faces at the top. Why not look to the backbenches for fresh talent, rather than a tired looking cabinet, who are going to look older as each day passes ?

For a laugh, here is a video that explains Brexit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/889003470128381954/video/1

You describe a chicken and egg situation. A 'new face' is not going to be suddenly catapulted from obscurity into No. 10. What is needed is for the party to identify possible new candidates and then for there to be an extensive reshuffle to bring these people into prominent positions. I cannot see how toppling TM will achieve anything other than the installing of a rather tired retread.

OldKingCole

We appear to be faced with the prospect of the Government collapsing during the Brexit negotiations.

DecrepitJohnL

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:

I cannot see Theresa May still being PM by the end of this year. It was difficult enough with a small Tory majority. Now relying on DUP support, during a difficult period in Northern Ireland and all of the challenges at Westminster, will just make it impossible.

In the Autumn, TM will face difficulty with lack of any real progress with Brexit, Westminster possibly taking direct control for N.Ireland, a Budget that will fail to satisfy very many and a Government regularly losing votes in Parliament.

Not convinced that David Davis will be able to unite the Tories, as he will probably still have spreadsheet Phil as Chancellor. Given challenges ahead with people wanting more spending, the economy slowing and not much room for extra borrowing, then i would think the Tories really need new faces at the top. Why not look to the backbenches for fresh talent, rather than a tired looking cabinet, who are going to look older as each day passes ?

For a laugh, here is a video that explains Brexit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/889003470128381954/video/1

You describe a chicken and egg situation. A 'new face' is not going to be suddenly catapulted from obscurity into No. 10. What is needed is for the party to identify possible new candidates and then for there to be an extensive reshuffle to bring these people into prominent positions. I cannot see how toppling TM will achieve anything other than the installing of a rather tired retread.

Catch 22 perhaps? Theresa May is too weak to reshuffle the Cabinet -- and forget about the 1922 Committee's support because any minister with more than a dozen followers is too powerful. But -- and this is where the Catch 22 part lies -- because she is so weak, Theresa May benefits from this paralysis: none of the obvious leadership rivals is very attractive, and she can only weaken her grip on power by promoting new, fresh-faced rivals. As you say, there is no point toppling the PM merely to install "a rather tired retread".

IanB2

The week after Tory conference appears to be building up to be critical. A lot hangs on her speech this year.

DavidL

I still agree with Nick's analysis of this the other day. TM is in an extremely invidious position but I really don't see how this government moves from the present status quo to a new one. The minority status of the Tories and the modest level of support that the DUP can provide means that there is no room for manoeuvre- no one can be discarded or ignored. This is a far weaker arrangement than the Lib Dems were able to provide in the coalition.

I think what we will continue to see is a cabinet working closely together with a nominal PM who ultimately can make few, if any, decisions on her own. There may come a point where she is not willing to live with that but I think her sense of duty will result in this impasse going on for some time. It is also possible that if those in the cabinet start manoeuvring so that teamwork becomes impossible then the government simply falls. Davis, for one, is stupid enough to cause this.

IanB2

Rawnsley this morning making similar points on Brexit to LK in the radio piece linked below:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/23/we-cannot-prepare-to-leave-europe-until-we-know-where-we-are-going

"If the past few months have served any purpose, it has been to educate members of the government in the perilous complexities of this enterprise. The insouciance with which the Outers sold Brexit is beginning to give way to a belated recognition of the scale of the enterprise and the calamitous consequences of botching it."

"The greatest terror for the Tories is what could happen to the economy – and with it their future as a party – if Britain ends up in the kamikaze scenario of tumbling out of the EU without any agreement about the future relationship...The slow learners in the cabinet have finally grasped that Britain will require a smoothed departure if there is to be any hope of avoiding a shock Brexit...but this resolves one argument only to ignite several others. How long should Britain sit in the departure lounge?"

"Let us suppose that the outlines of the divorce settlement can be agreed and in a way that doesn’t collapse this fragile and fissile government. Then the EU27 would be willing to talk about a transitional arrangement. With this caveat. The EU can only negotiate a transition if Britain is clear about where it wants to end up."

calum

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

IanB2

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

The London housing market has surely peaked.

freetochoose

IanB2 said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

The London housing market has surely peaked.

Yes, I predicted a crash on here recently. Crash might be too strong but nothing goes upwards forever

edmundintokyo

IanB2 said:

The EU can only negotiate a transition if Britain is clear about where it wants to end up."

I wonder if this is true. Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything. That would be scheduled to last 2 years, then replaced with a permanent, properly brexitty agreement when the British got their shit together, which they were totally going to do, really soon, definitely not much longer. In the event that the British failed to come through with this, they'd simply keep extending for another 2 years.

I know the EU side are generally saying they want to get the whole thing over with but I don't really see them disagreeing to this.

Scott_P

IanB2 said:

Rawnsley this morning making similar points on Brexit to LK in the radio piece linked below:

The slow learners in the cabinet have finally grasped that Britain will require a smoothed departure if there is to be any hope of avoiding a shock Brexit...but this resolves one argument only to ignite several others. How long should Britain sit in the departure lounge?"

I wonder how long it will take the slow learners on PB to catch up...

The problem this poses for Kremlinologists is that it should also finally put to bed the nonsense that Tezza "can stay until Brexit is delivered" (which will take many, many years), and "Brexit will be done in 2019"

Scott_P

edmundintokyo said:

Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything.

At which point the argument becomes "are we not better off with a vote?"

Pretty much what was said during the referendum. It was Leavers who argued against exactly this...

surbiton

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

"The British debate tends to neglect an important fact. There can be no transitional arrangement without the consent of the EU27. Michel Barnier, the point man for the commission at the Brexit talks, currently has no mandate from EU leaders to negotiate a transition. He would have to go back to them before he could engage on the subject. Many of the EU27 are sympathetic to the idea, as they are also astonished that Britain has been late to see the need for this, but their agreement would come with big qualifications attached.

The first obstacle is that the EU27 won’t even talk about the long-term relationship until “sufficient progress” has been made on the terms of the divorce. Two of the fiercest areas of contention are money and custody. After two trips by Mr Davis to Brussels last week, there is no agreement in sight on the future rights of EU citizens in the UK and Britons living in the EU27. A working paper released by the negotiators reveals outstanding and fundamental disagreements on 14 “red” issues. As for the bill for departure, the two sides have yet to agree on a methodology for negotiating that number, never mind getting down to wrangling out the maths."

surbiton

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

freetochoose

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

Last I saw it had rocketed to around 3%

surbiton

Scott_P said:

IanB2 said:

Rawnsley this morning making similar points on Brexit to LK in the radio piece linked below:

The slow learners in the cabinet have finally grasped that Britain will require a smoothed departure if there is to be any hope of avoiding a shock Brexit...but this resolves one argument only to ignite several others. How long should Britain sit in the departure lounge?"

I wonder how long it will take the slow learners on PB to catch up...

The problem this poses for Kremlinologists is that it should also finally put to bed the nonsense that Tezza "can stay until Brexit is delivered" (which will take many, many years), and "Brexit will be done in 2019"

Tezza will be gone by November.

surbiton

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

The London housing market has surely peaked.

Yes, I predicted a crash on here recently. Crash might be too strong but nothing goes upwards forever

It is already "rebalancing".

edmundintokyo

Scott_P said:

edmundintokyo said:

Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything.

At which point the argument becomes "are we not better off with a vote?"

Pretty much what was said during the referendum. It was Leavers who argued against exactly this...

A new vote sounds sensible to you and me, but getting there has different institutional hurdles, the biggest one being getting it past the Conservative parliamentary party without being strung upside-down from a lamp-post.

freetochoose

surbiton said:

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

The London housing market has surely peaked.

Yes, I predicted a crash on here recently. Crash might be too strong but nothing goes upwards forever

It is already "rebalancing".

Yeah it has to, London is completely different to rest of the UK but the market always finds its price.

volcanopete

Speaking metaphorically,TMay increasingly reminds me of Terry Downes,the English boxer,who kept on fighting despite some awful punishment.Interview after interview,his speech was more slurred,his nose more in direct line with his noise,awful cuts,swelling and bruises around the eyes, and his concentration was so bad,he needed 3 goes to remember what his name was.I reckon May will fight on,I think,til next year,but ,like Terry Downes,she won't be a pretty sight.You can only dodge and weave for so long before the final big punch lands and she is no Muhammed Ali.

IanB2

edmundintokyo said:

IanB2 said:

The EU can only negotiate a transition if Britain is clear about where it wants to end up."

I wonder if this is true. Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything. That would be scheduled to last 2 years, then replaced with a permanent, properly brexitty agreement when the British got their shit together, which they were totally going to do, really soon, definitely not much longer. In the event that the British failed to come through with this, they'd simply keep extending for another 2 years.

I know the EU side are generally saying they want to get the whole thing over with but I don't really see them disagreeing to this.

I wondered about that bit myself, as my instinct was that a half way house ought to be negotiable before all the final detail is sorted out.

It also provides the possibility at least to repent at leisure.

Dura_Ace

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

edmundintokyo said:

Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything.

At which point the argument becomes "are we not better off with a vote?"

Pretty much what was said during the referendum. It was Leavers who argued against exactly this...

A new vote sounds sensible to you and me, but getting there has different institutional hurdles, the biggest one being getting it past the Conservative parliamentary party without being strung upside-down from a lamp-post.

1. JC becomes PM before Brexit concludes. Seems more likely than not.
2. He collapses the parallel universes of his Brexit policies into a singularity by resetting the negotiation then returning from Brussels and saying the EU will let us stay but he will be allowed to nationalise WHSmith,etc..
3. He handily wins the resultant "Jezerendum" and the UK stays in the EU but you have to fill in a form and wait 6 months to buy a copy of The Ice Twins at Heathrow T5.

malcolmg

DecrepitJohnL said:

OldKingCole said:

Roger said:

A very tired Laura K talking from Brussels. Very entertaining. Turn to 3hrs 41mins exactly which is where she starts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08yn9vx#play

Sounds like she’s got a bit of time off coming! Thought provoking about October, though!

Brexit negotiations hamstrung by a lack of direction from Number 10 -- "the hole in the doughnut".

October sees the Conservative Party conference, of course, as well as Barnier's assessment of Brexit.

For leadership betting, what are the parallels with Mrs Thatcher's downfall? From very vague memory, Mrs Thatcher came out of conference looking strong but John Major was prime minister by the end of November.

All those big boys not able to do anything unless St Theresa gives them word by word instructions. We really do have our top team in action.

Peter_the_Punter

surbiton said:

Scott_P said:

IanB2 said:

Rawnsley this morning making similar points on Brexit to LK in the radio piece linked below:

The slow learners in the cabinet have finally grasped that Britain will require a smoothed departure if there is to be any hope of avoiding a shock Brexit...but this resolves one argument only to ignite several others. How long should Britain sit in the departure lounge?"

I wonder how long it will take the slow learners on PB to catch up...

The problem this poses for Kremlinologists is that it should also finally put to bed the nonsense that Tezza "can stay until Brexit is delivered" (which will take many, many years), and "Brexit will be done in 2019"

Tezza will be gone by November.

Like you, Surbiton, I am of the gone-by-November persuasion. (I'm actually part of pre-Conference sub-group, but let's not quibble).

I'll be standing next to you to be counted when we're proved right or wrong.

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

We appear to be faced with the prospect of the Government collapsing during the Brexit negotiations.

OKC, it collapsed at the election and has been missing ever since. Rudderless ship.

MarkSenior

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

Latest UKIP poll figures

Ipsos Mori 3% minus 1
Yougov 2% minus 2
ICM 3% N/C

So No

malcolmg

edmundintokyo said:

IanB2 said:

The EU can only negotiate a transition if Britain is clear about where it wants to end up."

I wonder if this is true. Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything. That would be scheduled to last 2 years, then replaced with a permanent, properly brexitty agreement when the British got their shit together, which they were totally going to do, really soon, definitely not much longer. In the event that the British failed to come through with this, they'd simply keep extending for another 2 years.

I know the EU side are generally saying they want to get the whole thing over with but I don't really see them disagreeing to this.

I have said from the start we will just have status quo , except no vote and just have to follow what EU order and we will pay more for it.

surbiton

freetochoose said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

Last I saw it had rocketed to around 3%

The only poll that matters is by Survation. Fieldwork 14-15 July. UKIP 6%. 3% of it from the Tories.

IanB2

surbiton said:

freetochoose said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

Last I saw it had rocketed to around 3%

The only poll that matters is by Survation. Fieldwork 14-15 July. UKIP 6%. 3% of it from the Tories.

? Labour was down 4, the LibDems up 1 to 8%, and the Tories unchanged ?

calum

freetochoose said:

surbiton said:

freetochoose said:

IanB2 said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

The London housing market has surely peaked.

Yes, I predicted a crash on here recently. Crash might be too strong but nothing goes upwards forever

It is already "rebalancing".

Yeah it has to, London is completely different to rest of the UK but the market always finds its price.

Bubbles always burst !

Scott_P

edmundintokyo said:

A new vote sounds sensible to you and me, but getting there has different institutional hurdles, the biggest one being getting it past the Conservative parliamentary party without being strung upside-down from a lamp-post.

And that's a problem.

Even if the slow learners in the cabinet are on board, the headbangers on the backbenches are not

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/888719799508811776

freetochoose

surbiton said:

freetochoose said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

Last I saw it had rocketed to around 3%

The only poll that matters is by Survation. Fieldwork 14-15 July. UKIP 6%. 3% of it from the Tories.

Do you think this is a good thing?

IanB2

Peter_the_Punter said:

surbiton said:

Scott_P said:

IanB2 said:

Rawnsley this morning making similar points on Brexit to LK in the radio piece linked below:

The slow learners in the cabinet have finally grasped that Britain will require a smoothed departure if there is to be any hope of avoiding a shock Brexit...but this resolves one argument only to ignite several others. How long should Britain sit in the departure lounge?"

I wonder how long it will take the slow learners on PB to catch up...

The problem this poses for Kremlinologists is that it should also finally put to bed the nonsense that Tezza "can stay until Brexit is delivered" (which will take many, many years), and "Brexit will be done in 2019"

Tezza will be gone by November.

Like you, Surbiton, I am of the gone-by-November persuasion. (I'm actually part of pre-Conference sub-group, but let's not quibble).

I'll be standing next to you to be counted when we're proved right or wrong.

For the Tory party as a whole, changing this year makes little sense (even the talk is unhelpful), which is why the members and many backbenchers are so irritated.

The problem is that time is running out for both Davis and Johnson to finish their careers by fulfilling their ambition, both because of their age and growing desire for a generational handover, and because they are both tied to Brexit which will slowly sink their chances. For neither of them is becoming PM in such circumstances otherwise likely to end well.

GIN1138

Morning sexy people.

Is most of this stuff made up by the newspapers? I thought all our lovely MP's were on holiday now?

IanB2

A week ago Fox was asked about the transitional period and said something along the lines of months not years. Very obvious that he now doesn't want to answer the question and is starting to hint at a two year period and the length being unimportant #Marr

GIN1138

IanB2 said:

A week ago Fox was asked about the transitional period and said something along the lines of months not years. Very obvious that he now doesn't want to answer the question and is starting to hint at a two year period and the length being unimportant #Marr

I think it'll be two years transition with a leaver taking over from Tessa in 2019 to ensure there's no back-sliding in 2021.

IanB2

The greater authority that Corbyn is able to project in interview since the GE is remarkable.

FF43

Dura_Ace said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

edmundintokyo said:

Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything.

At which point the argument becomes "are we not better off with a vote?"

Pretty much what was said during the referendum. It was Leavers who argued against exactly this...

A new vote sounds sensible to you and me, but getting there has different institutional hurdles, the biggest one being getting it past the Conservative parliamentary party without being strung upside-down from a lamp-post.

1. JC becomes PM before Brexit concludes. Seems more likely than not.
2. He collapses the parallel universes of his Brexit policies into a singularity by resetting the negotiation then returning from Brussels and saying the EU will let us stay but he will be allowed to nationalise WHSmith,etc..
3. He handily wins the resultant "Jezerendum" and the UK stays in the EU but you have to fill in a form and wait 6 months to buy a copy of The Ice Twins at Heathrow T5.

+1 for coming up with Jezerendum™

rcs1000

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

This is only to be expected. Banks are normally expected to keep sufficient capital in each of their subsidiaries (which is why HSBC needs so much capital to operate). The EU allowed much greater fungibility between countries: if you had excess capital in your German subsidiary, you were allowed to run with less capital in your Italian one.

That's unlikely to be allowed by either us or the EU in future: we won't allow an Italian bank to operate in the UK with insufficient capital because it has capital in Rome; they won't allow a British bank to operate in the EU with all its capital in London.

calum

EU turning the regulatory screw !

" Concerns are mounting that funds domiciled in Ireland and Luxembourg could be restricted in their ability to delegate key investment decisions to staff based outside the EU following guidance issued by Europe’s main markets watchdog "

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/esmas-brexit-guidance-sparks-fund-delegation-fears-20170714

IanB2

Seems to me that this BBC pay issue is going to end with many more 'stars' working Dimbleby-style under dodgy company contractual deals, which will do nothing for transparency or the gender gap. Corbyn was effectively pushing them in that direction just now.

Recidivist

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

I think UKIP members have gone back to their cardigans, DIY and dogging.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B2, indeed.

DecrepitJohnL

IanB2 said:

Seems to me that this BBC pay issue is going to end with many more 'stars' working Dimbleby-style under dodgy company contractual deals, which will do nothing for transparency or the gender gap. Corbyn was effectively pushing them in that direction just now.

Probably, although now you mention it, the BBC and government were pushing them that way years ago. The issue also opens up wider questions, like how come no-one in HR spotted the gender gap -- what are they there for? More interesting is the question of what people are paid for -- to what extent is Fred paid the standard rate for reading a script and how much extra is because Fred has charisma or authority or is a star?

We were reassured that the new Dr Who would get the same money as the outgoing Dr Who but Capaldi has a shelf full of awards including an Oscar: should that not count for something (maybe not if not for acting) or is the money just for learning and delivering an hour's worth of script?

And when did gender replace sex? Where is Jacob Rees-Mogg when you need him?

AndyJS

England win toss and decide to bat against India at Lords:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/40035680

David_Evershed

Left wing newspapers and commentators trying to stir up trouble for a Conservative Prime Minister with stories of plots against her.

Is the Pope Catholic?

malcolmg

GIN1138 said:

Morning sexy people.

Is most of this stuff made up by the newspapers? I thought all our lovely MP's were on holiday now?

Morning Gin, they are permanently on holiday, Westminster is like an all inclusive holiday club. They spend their time troughing at public expense, only busy places are the subsidised bars and restaurants. Best they have to do is run now and again when the bell goes to vote , and a few poor sods ( a very few ) get short straw to go to debates.

David_Evershed

New Conservative MP, Kemi Badenoch, quotes Woody Allen in her maiden speech.

Politics is like sex "If it's not messy you are not doing it right."

Impressive.

See Guido's extract.

Edit. Perhaps it should be Politics is like gender - works as well.

malcolmg

IanB2 said:

The greater authority that Corbyn is able to project in interview since the GE is remarkable.

He still sounds like the same tw** he was before the election

Sean_F

IanB2 said:

Seems to me that this BBC pay issue is going to end with many more 'stars' working Dimbleby-style under dodgy company contractual deals, which will do nothing for transparency or the gender gap. Corbyn was effectively pushing them in that direction just now.

Probably.

But, also expect to see some highly paid people become even better paid, in the name of equality.

GeoffM

Recidivist said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

I think UKIP members have gone back to their cardigans, DIY and dogging.

I don't have a cardigan so I assume I can't join?

FF43

edmundintokyo said:

IanB2 said:

The EU can only negotiate a transition if Britain is clear about where it wants to end up."

I wonder if this is true. Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything. That would be scheduled to last 2 years, then replaced with a permanent, properly brexitty agreement when the British got their shit together, which they were totally going to do, really soon, definitely not much longer. In the event that the British failed to come through with this, they'd simply keep extending for another 2 years.

I know the EU side are generally saying they want to get the whole thing over with but I don't really see them disagreeing to this.

Transition is a misnomer. What's important to the UK right now is continuity. Transition is where you go from A to B in a planned way. Over the period you have gradually less A and more B. Continuity is where you hang onto as much of A as possible for as long as possible. That's what the Cabinet have agreed. They are kicking the can down the road. It doesn't mean they will never get to B, but they don't want to deal with it right now.

Would the EU agree? There are reasons why they might. They would appreciate having the UK on their side, however reluctantly. OTOH it means them doing the opposite of what they say they will do. They need to take a firmer line on membership benefits and obligations than they did with Norway and Switzerland, so that membership has a clear advantage over leaving. Probably they will give the can a kick as well

David_Evershed

IanB2 said:

The greater authority that Corbyn is able to project in interview since the GE is remarkable.

More disinterest than authority I thought.

nigel4england

surbiton said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

"The British debate tends to neglect an important fact. There can be no transitional arrangement without the consent of the EU27. Michel Barnier, the point man for the commission at the Brexit talks, currently has no mandate from EU leaders to negotiate a transition. He would have to go back to them before he could engage on the subject. Many of the EU27 are sympathetic to the idea, as they are also astonished that Britain has been late to see the need for this, but their agreement would come with big qualifications attached.

The first obstacle is that the EU27 won’t even talk about the long-term relationship until “sufficient progress” has been made on the terms of the divorce. Two of the fiercest areas of contention are money and custody. After two trips by Mr Davis to Brussels last week, there is no agreement in sight on the future rights of EU citizens in the UK and Britons living in the EU27. A working paper released by the negotiators reveals outstanding and fundamental disagreements on 14 “red” issues. As for the bill for departure, the two sides have yet to agree on a methodology for negotiating that number, never mind getting down to wrangling out the maths."

Would be nice if someone started blaming their side as well as ours.

David_Evershed

Recidivist said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

I think UKIP members have gone back to their cardigans, DIY and dogging.

Cardigans, DIY and dogging.

A great title for a manifesto.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, they should cut male salaries and use the savings to buy back F1 rights.

David_Evershed

calum said:

EU turning the regulatory screw !

" Concerns are mounting that funds domiciled in Ireland and Luxembourg could be restricted in their ability to delegate key investment decisions to staff based outside the EU following guidance issued by Europe’s main markets watchdog "

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/esmas-brexit-guidance-sparks-fund-delegation-fears-20170714

Anti tax avoidance steps will put a stop to asset managers wanting to be based in Luxembourg and Ireland.

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, they should cut male salaries and use the savings to buy back F1 rights.

It's a nice idea, but hell will freeze over first.

FF43

malcolmg said:

I have said from the start we will just have status quo , except no vote and just have to follow what EU order and we will pay more for it.

Brexit is undeliverable as promised, which is what makes it interesting. They have to do something because there was a vote about it.

Scott_P

GIN1138 said:

I think it'll be two years transition with a leaver taking over from Tessa in 2019 to ensure there's no back-sliding in 2021.

Chortle

You still think there will be prominent leavers in 2019...

Bless.

Scott_P

FF43 said:

Brexit is undeliverable as promised, which is what makes it interesting. They have to do something because there was a vote about it.

If only someone had said that earlier.

Oh, wait...

surbiton

nigel4england said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

"The British debate tends to neglect an important fact. There can be no transitional arrangement without the consent of the EU27. Michel Barnier, the point man for the commission at the Brexit talks, currently has no mandate from EU leaders to negotiate a transition. He would have to go back to them before he could engage on the subject. Many of the EU27 are sympathetic to the idea, as they are also astonished that Britain has been late to see the need for this, but their agreement would come with big qualifications attached.

The first obstacle is that the EU27 won’t even talk about the long-term relationship until “sufficient progress” has been made on the terms of the divorce. Two of the fiercest areas of contention are money and custody. After two trips by Mr Davis to Brussels last week, there is no agreement in sight on the future rights of EU citizens in the UK and Britons living in the EU27. A working paper released by the negotiators reveals outstanding and fundamental disagreements on 14 “red” issues. As for the bill for departure, the two sides have yet to agree on a methodology for negotiating that number, never mind getting down to wrangling out the maths."

Would be nice if someone started blaming their side as well as ours.

The entire UK Leave strategy is based on that: blame them. Why can't they support what we want ?

David_Evershed

IanB2 said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

The London housing market has surely peaked.

Not until interest rates (long term and short term) start to rise significantly.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, indeed.

Scott_P

IanB2 said:

The greater authority that Corbyn is able to project in interview since the GE is remarkable.

I particularly liked the bit where he mansplained that when he said he "would deal with" student debt, he didn't know how big it was, and once he found out he meant he wouldn't deal with it.

You can't buy that sort of authority.

David_Evershed

We are still learning what Theresa May is like.

It could be that she is very resilient, has bounce back ability, and able to show she can inspire the nation next time round.

But she could also be a quitter.

Sean_F

David_Evershed said:

We are still learning what Theresa May is like.

It could be that she is very resilient, has bounce back ability, and able to show she can inspire the nation next time round.

But she could also be a quitter.

Both Jeremy Corbyn and Arlene Foster have shown that politicians who cling on like limpets can recover from bad results.

My biggest doubt about Theresa May is that I have no idea why she wants to be PM.

David_Evershed

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, they should cut male salaries and use the savings to buy back F1 rights.

It's a nice idea, but hell will freeze over first.

The high salaries are mostly legacy issues from long standing and aging BBC employees. Just retire them off by not renewing their contracts. Better too for making the BBC more viewable/listenable for the younger generations.

David_Evershed

GeoffM said:

Recidivist said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

I think UKIP members have gone back to their cardigans, DIY and dogging.

I don't have a cardigan so I assume I can't join?

Two out of three is sufficient.

OldKingCole

Sean_F said:

David_Evershed said:

We are still learning what Theresa May is like.

It could be that she is very resilient, has bounce back ability, and able to show she can inspire the nation next time round.

But she could also be a quitter.

Both Jeremy Corbyn and Arlene Foster have shown that politicians who cling on like limpets can recover from bad results.

My biggest doubt about Theresa May is that I have no idea why she wants to be PM.

Isn’t she a “Cameron”? Thought 'she’d be rather good at it’!

David_Evershed

Sean_F said:

David_Evershed said:

We are still learning what Theresa May is like.

It could be that she is very resilient, has bounce back ability, and able to show she can inspire the nation next time round.

But she could also be a quitter.

Both Jeremy Corbyn and Arlene Foster have shown that politicians who cling on like limpets can recover from bad results.

My biggest doubt about Theresa May is that I have no idea why she wants to be PM.

Her upbringing gave her a sense of duty.

surbiton

David_Evershed said:

Sean_F said:

David_Evershed said:

We are still learning what Theresa May is like.

It could be that she is very resilient, has bounce back ability, and able to show she can inspire the nation next time round.

But she could also be a quitter.

Both Jeremy Corbyn and Arlene Foster have shown that politicians who cling on like limpets can recover from bad results.

My biggest doubt about Theresa May is that I have no idea why she wants to be PM.

Her upbringing gave her a sense of duty.

Yes. Like the Captain of the Titanic.

David_Evershed

rcs1000 said:

calum said:

Any hopes of "brass plate" solutions to Brexit are not going wash with firms having to meet EU and local substance requirements i.e. lots of senior bodies on the ground :

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/eu-regulator-sets-out-rules-on-brexit-relocations-20170713

This is only to be expected. Banks are normally expected to keep sufficient capital in each of their subsidiaries (which is why HSBC needs so much capital to operate). The EU allowed much greater fungibility between countries: if you had excess capital in your German subsidiary, you were allowed to run with less capital in your Italian one.

That's unlikely to be allowed by either us or the EU in future: we won't allow an Italian bank to operate in the UK with insufficient capital because it has capital in Rome; they won't allow a British bank to operate in the EU with all its capital in London.

Having a subsidiary in each country market gives banks a better chance of building a competitive position in a country than just having a branch. People know branches are transitory not permanent. So any small cost of having some extra capital to have a subsidiary rather than a branch is offset by the extra competitiveness.

Better still to take over a local country brank with a local name to help become a major player. HSBC missed a trick when it took over Midland Bank and then dropped the brand name for HSBC.

Roger

Having just listened again to the entertaining (if you're not a Tory or a Brexiteer) piece by Laura K I thought I'd look up the Liz Truss cheese clip that she says is a favourite among Tory MPs when all about them is turning to dust........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXL7dzlEUYQ

Morris_Dancer

F1: via Twitter, read that Wolff reckons so long as both drivers are in the title fight, Mercedes won't interfere.

Scott_P

@MrHarryCole: Cripes, someone should him about the deficit. https://twitter.com/jackwdoyle/status/889045805239332864

FrancisUrquhart

OldKingCole said:

Sean_F said:

David_Evershed said:

We are still learning what Theresa May is like.

It could be that she is very resilient, has bounce back ability, and able to show she can inspire the nation next time round.

But she could also be a quitter.

Both Jeremy Corbyn and Arlene Foster have shown that politicians who cling on like limpets can recover from bad results.

My biggest doubt about Theresa May is that I have no idea why she wants to be PM.

Isn’t she a “Cameron”? Thought 'she’d be rather good at it’!

Actually Cameron had a clear idea about what he thought pm was about. He saw it as being CEO of a big company that needed stabilising and trusted his management to get on with the job. Not exactly revolutionary vision but probably the best approach at that given time.

All reports of may is she is a control freak and does exactly the opposite.

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: Cripes, someone should him about the deficit. https://twitter.com/jackwdoyle/status/889045805239332864

Thick as pig shit....

BBC let him get away with lying...

Jeremy Corbyn: I never said we would write off student debt
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40696974

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/889071513013506048

Scrapheap_as_was

Just seen this from This Week. I think 'utter bollocks' is applicable...

https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/888004848095969280

Benpointer

freetochoose said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

Last I saw it had rocketed to around 3%

And a total of 15 votes in last weeks local elections.

rottenborough

IanB2 said:

A week ago Fox was asked about the transitional period and said something along the lines of months not years. Very obvious that he now doesn't want to answer the question and is starting to hint at a two year period and the length being unimportant #Marr

Sounds like the Cabinet have taken a collective decision that there will be a transition and Fox is stuck with collective responsibility.

Benpointer

FF43 said:

Dura_Ace said:

edmundintokyo said:

Scott_P said:

edmundintokyo said:

Assume for the sake of argument that the British are still faffing around cluelessly 6 months from now, isn't a transitional arrangement pending who-knows-what the easiest way for everyone to get through it? The transitional arrangement would be exactly the same as the status quo, except that Britain wouldn't have a vote on anything.

At which point the argument becomes "are we not better off with a vote?"

Pretty much what was said during the referendum. It was Leavers who argued against exactly this...

A new vote sounds sensible to you and me, but getting there has different institutional hurdles, the biggest one being getting it past the Conservative parliamentary party without being strung upside-down from a lamp-post.

1. JC becomes PM before Brexit concludes. Seems more likely than not.
2. He collapses the parallel universes of his Brexit policies into a singularity by resetting the negotiation then returning from Brussels and saying the EU will let us stay but he will be allowed to nationalise WHSmith,etc..
3. He handily wins the resultant "Jezerendum" and the UK stays in the EU but you have to fill in a form and wait 6 months to buy a copy of The Ice Twins at Heathrow T5.

+1 for coming up with Jezerendum™

Agreed, I intend to use it freely off-site as if I invented it

felix

IanB2 said:

surbiton said:

freetochoose said:

surbiton said:

So, Gove, Fox and possibly, Johnson [ whose opinion actually does not matter ] are now transitionists. What next ?

Have you noticed UKIP is gradually going up in the polls ?

Last I saw it had rocketed to around 3%

The only poll that matters is by Survation. Fieldwork 14-15 July. UKIP 6%. 3% of it from the Tories.

? Labour was down 4, the LibDems up 1 to 8%, and the Tories unchanged ?

Lol - over to you surby.

CarlottaVance

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Just seen this from This Week. I think 'utter bollocks' is applicable...

https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/888004848095969280

They used to say the role of Astrologists was to give Economists a good name, though that is now much disputed....

OldKingCole

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Just seen this from This Week. I think 'utter bollocks' is applicable...

https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/888004848095969280

Looks about right to me.
Every so often astrology is going to get it ‘sort of’ right, just as a 100-1 shot is going to come in occasionally.

Benpointer

FF43 said:

malcolmg said:

I have said from the start we will just have status quo , except no vote and just have to follow what EU order and we will pay more for it.

Brexit is undeliverable as promised, which is what makes it interesting. They have to do something because there was a vote about it.

+1 Brexit in a nutshell!

felix

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Seems to me that this BBC pay issue is going to end with many more 'stars' working Dimbleby-style under dodgy company contractual deals, which will do nothing for transparency or the gender gap. Corbyn was effectively pushing them in that direction just now.

Probably.

But, also expect to see some highly paid people become even better paid, in the name of equality.

Indeed - and just as ordinary folk can see a much more sensible approach involving a 'levelling down approach.