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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might be a bit late but PBers are invited to a post GE17
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This might be a bit late but PBers are invited to a post GE17 event tomorrow at the London Olympic Park
We welcome @IpsosMORI @ComRes @Survation @GfK & @MSmithsonPB to our free #GE2017 event tomorrow https://t.co/c9wNy14tPn #polling #NewMR #Mrx pic.twitter.com/5I8leh53sk
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LOL. If Sophy Ridge isn't going I'll give it a miss.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/887303451088109568
Boris? Gove?
The following is an interesting potential new angle to the Grenfell Tower tragedy:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40632705
An irrelevance, or another link in the causal chain?
Why are you going, if I may as? Event?
Edit: Ah, Monty Don. Cheers. Enjoy.
Hope you have a nice time tomorrow.
F1: my mid-season review, full of splendid graphs, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/mid-season-review-2017.html
Ought to solve a few problems.
There's actually overwhelming consensus on climate change among scientists.
Computer modelling for Lehman Brothers is not the same thing as for climate and isn't comparable.
Predicting the weather is a different challenge to predicting the climate in decades time.
My analogy would be - my doctor can't tell me when smoking is going to give me cancer, so why should I believe him/her that's it's bad for my health/will kill me?
Saying we will only do X if it saves the world by itself is quite a high bar to clear.
If something makes a 2% contribution to saving the world... We should do it!
JRM is an Old Etonian from a family with long connections in the City. He has clearly been able to use all the very big advantages he was born with to his benefit. Good luck to him. He would have been a fool not to do so. And I am certainly not suggesting that he is a fool. Whether he would have been able to do it all from scratch is a moot point - we will never know.
As for moving the Tories back from the 21st century, he gives every indication of wishing that society had stopped developing in around 1955. His position on a number of issues strongly indicates that. A lot of people think he is funny and entertaining because of that. I imagine that is because right now he is powerless and, therefore, powerless.
Leadership? Like Corbyn he has been a serial rebel from the backbenches and has no ministerial experience whatsoever. My guess is that with fellow MPs neither of those things would be to his advantage - eg, see the recent Treasury committee chairmanship vote. However, should he manage to get his name in front of Tory members, like Corbyn with Labour members he probably reflects majority views. Whether those are majority views in the country is another matter entirely.
"...common sense dictates that if the Meteorological Office cannot forecast the next season’s weather with any success it is ambitious to predict what will happen decades ahead."
It simply doesn't follow that it you can't predict climate in the long term just because you can't predict weather in the short term. For example, no-one cannot predict with any accuracy whether it will be raining or not 2 weeks tomorrow, but we can be virtually certain that it will be cooler in 6 months time than it is now. There are sound physical reasons why the Earth will be warmer in 50 years' time (enhanced greenhouse effect) just as there are sound physical reasons why the UK will be cooler in 6 months (the orientation of the Earth towards the sun).
JRM's "common sense" is based on the erroneous assumption that climate forecasting is just long term weather forecasting.
"Common sense dictates that if the Meteorological Office cannot forecast the next season’s weather with any success it is ambitious to predict what will happen decades ahead."
If I cannot predict next season's weather, it does not follow that I cannot predict average quantities (like global temperature) for next season, or seasons after that. I may well be able to predict the trend, but not the fluctuations around the trend.
Here is another:
"Sceptics remember that computer modelling was behind the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the global financial crisis"
Even if some computer modelling of financial forecasting is poorly done, it does not follow that computer modelling of average climatic conditions is poorly done.
Mr. Mortimer, Boris to the heart of the sun, via space cannon, would be a preferable route to success.
Feersumenjineeya came up with a better example anyway.
TOPPING said:
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Which would I think drive peoples' sympathy to him.
isam said
Yes I'd say so. The Corbynites wouldn't be able to resist. JRM would be the perfect bait to expose the hard lefts true colours
Best thing would be if the Leavers stopped smearing Hammond to nobble him before the leadership contest.
I stopped the project.
I'm not sure about leadership. He has strength of conviction which can make up for a lot, as we have seen.
As for the country, we have also seen that it is in the mood for a change from the identikit politicians and he is certainly not one of those, so I think his appeal would be wide and perhaps deep.
I can't believe it will happen, but these days...who knows...!!
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/extended-brexit-transition-now-cards/
Yes, different kinds of modelling are not the same as each other, but what they have in common is that they are what you do when you can't do anything else. We know smoking causes cancer, not by taking one solitary smoker and modelling the future effects of smoking on his lungs, but from masses and masses of statistics - we have lots of smokers, lots of non-smokers, and lots of cancer patients, and we just count them up. One hears it said as a weakness of the global warming case that correlation does not imply causation, but that argument is irrelevant because correlation is where when A occurs, B also occurs on more occasions (plural) than would be expected to occur randomly. With only one world to look at, even correlation cannot happen. Sure, global warming is probably happening and many of the steps for reducing it make lots of sense anyway (e.g. solar powered cars don't emit diesel particulate thingies) but I do get bored of militant thickoes (I don't mean you) supporting the claim when they clearly have no understanding of its epistemological status. Quite simply, I bet that at lest 97% of warmist thickos would say that the evidence for it is at least as strong as the evidence that smoking causes cancer, while actually it is thousands of times less compelling.
https://twitter.com/bbctms/status/887320260696834050
I agree with everything you say in your last comment. I really don't think JRM can be considered a small state advocate or Libertarian as long as he holds his religiously inspired views on various social issues and certainly not as long as he is in favour of more Government surveillance of people.
Whilst I have not thought about it deeply it strikes me on cursory consideration that there is a direct conflict between the sort of socially conservative Catholicism that JRM believes in and the sort of Libertarianism he claims to espouse.
Got really lucky with almost all the time (backed Swinson at 3.5 the day before Farron announced his resignation, heard that live and backed [when Swinson ruled herself out, also live] the three chaps, then backed the two chaps when Lamb ruled himself out. The only one I missed was Davey ruling himself out).
Small stakes so I won't be making a lot, but in timing terms I was very fortunate.
How did St Vince get to be canonised before he was dead?
Will he become King St Vince or St King Vince?
To be replaced by Vince?
Yet they've only been going backwards during that time.... so much for "the electorate rewards united parties".
There we can disagree.
He should have batted at no 5 in the England test line up.
Hence the fall in vote share.
Jennings drops tp 3.
"The term "millennial" is typically applied to those born between 1980 and 1999, who reached adulthood in the 21st century."
Is it? I would've said mid-90s. Maybe younger. Is a 37 year old man really a millenial?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-40640649
The first use of Millenial actually dates them to born in 1982 - i.e. finishing high school/secondary school in 2000.
As said, outside of WW1/depression/WW2 where there were huge societal changes, I'm not sure such 'generations' exist in the same way.
Perfect, he must be doing something right.
wait.
what?
The problem the MPs do have is a growing list of aspirant candidates who they will want to keep away from the members, and a relative shortage of experienced and credible ones. Although of course they only need to find two.