After all the horrible recent events the prospect of a new election and Corbyn majority does elicit a genuine feeling of dread even if rationally I can convince myself it is unlikely.
For those worried about a Corbyn government costing them a fortune (a thought that I must admit crossed my mind) the good news is that Brexit in the hands of Theresa will cost a Hell of a lot more.
There is not a hope in Hades in the DUP doing anything directly to assist Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.
How about indirectly?
Nor indirectly. Corbyn's IRA links didn't reasonate with the mainland voters in the way the Tories had hoped but all of the DUP MPs will have friends who have been victims of the IRA (Arlene Foster watched her Dad shot and had her school bus blown up) so they'll do everything to ensure he is kept as far from No.10 as possible.
Arlene Foster was in government with Martin McGuinness
Of course the DUP are playing hard to get. Why wouldn't they?
Mrs May holds all the aces. She should have said my way or it's Corbyn as PM.
How could she have screwed this up?
Isn't that what she's doing?
Again people are putting her automaticallyina no-win position 'Don't do a deal with the DUP, they're bigots'
Then when that happens....
'Ah, she's crap at negotiating with the DUP....'
Most people on here make arguments on that basis, a kind of modern internet witch trial. In betting terms it is like backing both teams at 10/11, £50 each, then showing the winning slip to everyone while chucking the loser in the bin. They know they've lost £8 not won £42, but hope no one rumbles.
Reading the Lib Dem tea leaves I'd go with Davey -> Cable -> Lamb (Most likely to least likely) if they are running.
I'm afraid Lamb abstaining on Article 50 is looking like treason to alot of the members, although it is supposed to be the party of the "48%", it is in effect becoming the party of the hardcore end of that 48%, and Ed Davey seems by far the most hardcore on the spectrum of the three who I think will run.
The second part of my 2nd paragraph might sound obvious enough, but Davey is the one who will take advantage of it in a leadership election. I'll be sticking with my back to lay of Jo for ~£10 profit - but Davey looks the most likely winner to me (Should he declare)
I can't remember many of your 40,000 posts being all that complimentary toward the LDs. Not sure if you are a member or were - not that it matters very much.
As a member, I would be quite happy with Lamb or Davey leading the party. Norman was not the right person to lead us in 2015 - we needed Tim's energy and passion to get us up off the floor. The world has moved on and we may well be looking at a five-year Parliament.
I had a huge problem with our basic Brexit position which was "let's have a referendum on the Treaty and if we reject it, we stay in the EU" as I didn't believe the rejection of the treaty could possibly lead to that consequence. There could be many reasons for rejecting a bad deal but to argue that meant staying in was foolish in extremis.
I am a member and will be casting the ballot in order:
1. Lamb, 2. Cable, 3. Davey. (Should they all run)
My main concern with the UK is most certainly the rise and rise of marxist orthodoxy right now mind.
Bit depressing that your preferred order is the opposite of what you think is likely!
I've always tried to provide objective tips here whether I like the result or not. If there is an autumn election I can't see past a smallish majority for Corbyn I'm afraid, much as that terrifies me.
Disagree - with a new leader and the real fear of a Corbyn government there are lots of marginals which should tip the Tory way.
Not clear to me how Corbyn increases his vote from where he is, while the Tories are likely to have been at their nadir
Which nadir would that be, Charles? Do you have in mind the nadir they reached on polling day, or the nadir they reached in the polling since, or the nadir they arf going to reach in the next poll, or the poll after that?
If you know the bottom of the market, Charles, you must tell us, so that we can all start buying at that point.
Sprinkler might not have stopped the fire going up the cladding but regarding the sprinkler recommendations the article says:
After further correspondence, then government minister Liberal Democrat Stephen Williams, replied: "I have neither seen nor heard anything that would suggest that consideration of these specific potential changes is urgent and I am not willing to disrupt the work of this department by asking that these matters are brought forward."
The group replied: "We're at a loss to understand, how you had concluded that credible and independent evidence which had life safety implications, was NOT considered to be urgent.
"As a consequence the group wishes to point out to you that should a major fire tragedy, with loss of life, occur between now and 2017, in for example, a residential care facility or a purpose built block of flats, where the matters which had been raised here, were found to be contributory to the outcome, then the group would be bound to bring this to others' attention."
I do wonder if Brexit will go through, now. This is chaos.
And NOBODY predicted that.
Oh, wait...
To be fair nobody on 23rd June could have foreseen the Tories would mess things up as badly as they have in the past year.
It started with the Con leadership election and has been getting worse ever since.
If you look at the great sweep of history, you could argue that peak Toryism occurred in 1985, just before the Westland Affair. It's been steadily down hill since then, with Dave providing a slight up-tick during the coalition years.
I do wonder if Brexit will go through, now. This is chaos.
And NOBODY predicted that.
Oh, wait...
To be fair nobody on 23rd June could have foreseen the Tories would mess things up as badly as they have in the past year.
It started with the Con leadership election and has been getting worse ever since.
In broad terms it's turning out pretty much as I expected. I didn't expect a Conservative party to almost lose to a Marxist mid negotiations. On the other hand I was expecting a constitutional crisis that didn't happen. So probably on course overall. My basic prediction that it will be a huge mess and it won't resolve anything still stands.
Nope. It gives you all the costs of the Single Market with non of the benefits.
That's not true. There are pros and cons:
Single Market but not in the Customs Union:
- Requires conformance with the Freedom of Movement directives - No tariffs trading with the EU - Some customs checks and paperwork remain (declaration of origin), so not entirely seamless trade with the EU - Access to the Single Market for financial and other services - Public-sector contracts have to be offered without national preference - Quite a bit of EU regulation applies, including to service industries operating here - We could do our own trade deals with other countries and set our own external tariffs, subject to WTO rules
Customs Union but not Single Market:
- Does not require conformance with the Freedom of Movement directives - No tariffs trading with the EU - No customs checks and paperwork, so entirely seamless trade for goods with the EU - Services and public procurement excluded - Less EU regulation would apply to us - Larger contribution to EU coffers than the Customs Union structure - We couldn't do our own trade deals with other countries, we'd instead mirror the EU ones and follow the EU external tariffs
The choice between the two (if they were on offer) would certainly not be a no-brainer. It depends on your priorities.
Strictly speaking, you could do trade deals on the basis your regulatory regime was different, and therefore talk about removing non-tariff barriers bilaterally, but, yes, I take your point.
You really think the EU won't notice attempted regulatory arbitrage??
Fine until reality intrudes on your pipe dreams and leaves you and your compatriots in an even worse position. Real, rather than relative, poverty is almost (but not entirely) non existent in Britain. Things can and will get far, far worse under someone like Corbyn. When the country is like Greece and can no longer afford to pay for medicines then it is people like you who will be responsible.
Care to bet on these predictions of doom under Corbyn? Say £20 (or $ if you prefer) to a charity of my/your choice?
I can't see how you can bet on such things. How do we judge just how bad is disastrous? If you want to bet on the UK going into recession if Corbyn becomes PM then I am fine with that. If you want to bet on us losing ratings with the agencies then that as well.
The difference is labour actually had a plan to pay for their no-death-tax.
Yes, find a rainbow and dig up the gold.
Your point was a good one: had Labour won, under Corbyn/McDonnell, a lot of the money they'd expect to squeeze out of the populace would have simply disappeared.
I had contingency plans to transfer £10k over to my cousin in Canada (who I trust implicitly) to hold for me in trust, and my parents in an offshore Jersey account.
I am now looking at selling my London flat and using the proceeds to buy a house in Barbados. Negligible transaction costs, no IHT, negligible income tax and closely tied to the dollar, so a good hedge for when the £ gets debauched.
It would only be madness if the benefits of not being in the customs union outweigh the benefits of being in it. We know where we are as things stand - we have certainty. What certainty can you provide about leaving the customs union, beyond the fact that it is likely to make it harder and more expensive to export to the EU27?
Leaving the Single Market but staying in the Customs Union helps no one at all. It is by far the dumbest solution of the lot.
It helps a lot of people whose jobs are dependent on the frictionless movement of goods within the EU. Thus, it also helps the taxpayer.
It won't help if we are outside the Single Market. That is far more important than the Customs Union. Like I said it is the daftest of results.
No, the daftest result is a No Deal Brexit - that guarantees immediate and significant harm to the UK economy
In the same way that a vote to Leave guaranteed immediate and significant harm to the UK economy?
Sprinkler might not have stopped the fire going up the cladding but regarding the sprinkler recommendations the article says:
After further correspondence, then government minister Liberal Democrat Stephen Williams, replied: "I have neither seen nor heard anything that would suggest that consideration of these specific potential changes is urgent and I am not willing to disrupt the work of this department by asking that these matters are brought forward."
The group replied: "We're at a loss to understand, how you had concluded that credible and independent evidence which had life safety implications, was NOT considered to be urgent.
"As a consequence the group wishes to point out to you that should a major fire tragedy, with loss of life, occur between now and 2017, in for example, a residential care facility or a purpose built block of flats, where the matters which had been raised here, were found to be contributory to the outcome, then the group would be bound to bring this to others' attention."
Perhaps the Evening Standard could look into the effect that budgetary cuts had on the provisioning of fire prevention measures.
Their Editor would know a bit more, having been the Chancellor responsible for Austerity.
Three Quidder. What is said befiore negotiation and what people actually require are usually two different things. BRITAIN WILL NOT BE LEAVING THE EU. Juast accept it.
I must use a word checker!!!!! By the way do you realise how much government work is being delayed or lost because so many Civil Servants are trying to understand what David Davies is doing or is on about.
The difference is labour actually had a plan to pay for their no-death-tax.
Yes, find a rainbow and dig up the gold.
Your point was a good one: had Labour won, under Corbyn/McDonnell, a lot of the money they'd expect to squeeze out of the populace would have simply disappeared.
I had contingency plans to transfer £10k over to my cousin in Canada (who I trust implicitly) to hold for me in trust, and my parents in an offshore Jersey account.
I am now looking at selling my London flat and using the proceeds to buy a house in Barbados. Negligible transaction costs, no IHT, negligible income tax and closely tied to the dollar, so a good hedge for when the £ gets debauched.
Comments
NEW THREAD
If Sinn Fein even did take their seats, that would probably galvanise the DUP into blocking them.
If you know the bottom of the market, Charles, you must tell us, so that we can all start buying at that point.
Don't blame me – I voted Remain.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/grenfell-tower-ministers-were-warned-of-a-tower-block-tragedy-if-no-sprinklers-fitted-a3568526.html
Sprinkler might not have stopped the fire going up the cladding but regarding the sprinkler recommendations the article says:
After further correspondence, then government minister Liberal Democrat Stephen Williams, replied: "I have neither seen nor heard anything that would suggest that consideration of these specific potential changes is urgent and I am not willing to disrupt the work of this department by asking that these matters are brought forward."
The group replied: "We're at a loss to understand, how you had concluded that credible and independent evidence which had life safety implications, was NOT considered to be urgent.
"As a consequence the group wishes to point out to you that should a major fire tragedy, with loss of life, occur between now and 2017, in for example, a residential care facility or a purpose built block of flats, where the matters which had been raised here, were found to be contributory to the outcome, then the group would be bound to bring this to others' attention."
The terms depend on the other 27 EU countries. You have to await the outcome of negotiations.
Chris Williamson MP @DerbyChrisW 9h9 hours ago
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Six weeks ago they said he was unelectable; now he's irresistible.
Their Editor would know a bit more, having been the Chancellor responsible for Austerity.
By the way do you realise how much government work is being delayed or lost because so many Civil Servants are trying to understand what David Davies is doing or is on about.