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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After being level pegging with LAB in July the latest ICM p
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After being level pegging with LAB in July the latest ICM poll has CON 3 pts behind
Just a month ago the ICM Guardian phone poll sent shocks throughout the political world when it reported that both the blue and red teams were level pegging on 36% each. It really looked as though the CON revival was bearing fruit and the poll helped fuel the “it’s getting much closer” narrative.
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Labour share holding up, still. Looks solid still
Morning - joining the rest of the commentariat on Labour's challenges on @bbc5live at 8.05. In summer 2008 Tories were 24 points ahead..
http://youtu.be/UEb6qzqe2Jw
https://twitter.com/petermacmahon/status/367007122111741953/photo/1
Mark Senior may claim it is within the MOE but the sane minded recognise it as yet more evidence of Labour's decline.
And what of the Lib Dem 2010 cold sore sticking like a barnacle to Labours lips? It is beginning to look like the recovery of the economy is working like a topical application of antiviral cream.
Being a whole THREE POINTS ahead is super.
Isn't that within Nil points MOE ;^)
I think that EdM's Labour are in desperate trouble which the polls are obscuring because the companies are unused to coalitition governments in the UK..
Also out today was Populus’s twice-weekly voting intention poll, which today had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 10%. Full tabs here. http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7962
Besides, I'm a wee bit sceptical about mid summer polling. We'll surely get a much clearer picture before and after the conference season.
Coalition 46
Labour 35
OR
Tory/UKIP 42
Labour 35
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRfl9mKCYAABRWV.jpg:large
I see the Guardian reports that
"..He [Ed] also insisted the party is happy with the way Bryant's speech had gone because he was spreading the message about the party's new approach to immigration...."
I mean, why DO you bother? Nothing on drugs, nothing on housing and now Woolas-lite on immigration. It's enough to make a boy a pbTory.
Experts say they believe many of the cases involving acid are linked to Asian communities, with women attacked by their husbands and punished for refusing forced marriages, while men were attacked during disputes over dowries.
Latest NHS hospital figures record 144 assaults in 2011/12 involving corrosive substances, which can also include petrol, bleach and kerosene.
Six years earlier, 56 such episodes were noted.
Jaf Shah, executive director of Acid Survivors Trust International said that many attacks in Britain were not reported, because women targeted lived in fear of reprisals.
He said: “There is a reluctance among women in the Asian community to come forward; these attacks do not usually come from strangers, but from someone close to them in the community – a husband, a father, or their family.”
They don't understand how you win elections let alone FPTP
Let's just wait till the general election. And Cornwall showed the Tories were losing it. As I said. They have no members and no long term prospects as a party. In a few years time UKIP will be bigger.
ClassicPics @History_Pics
Before alarm clocks were affordable, 'knocker-ups' were used to wake people early in the morning. UK, around 1900 pic.twitter.com/KfeqfRolBQ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRfd4utCcAAevFU.jpg:large
Is this real? "It all seems to go fine": Chris Bryant's apparent diary of his day ind.pn/15w60zw
Tim C @forwardnotback
So Chris Bryant had a good day independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… important to note the detail about ties
'Only a "major crisis" south of the border could turn the situation in favour of independence'
Polling suggests that the prospect of a Tory government might qualify north of the border.
There is a serious discussion to be had about the role of party members, or rather activists, in elections and whether, in fact, they are as significant in decidiing the outcome as is commonly believed (not least by they themselves). But it is one, sadly, that cannot be had with you. Which is bit of a shame.
One point I do acknowledge upfront is that Merlin is irredeemably crap.
They think he's a bad man and making menacing threats to SeanT
I wonder whose opinion is more valuable ?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/12/gay-couple-kentucky-spousal-privilege-protection
Below is a link to polls since Feb, though obviously you pays your money and makes your choice with individual pollsters.
http://tinyurl.com/mcdud8e
#BenefitsBritain1949 is fascinating, though not perfect. The history is interesting, though far less than the different attitudes revealed.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100230838/jacamerons-coalition-of-liars-trimmers-and-charlatans-are-destroying-britains-landscape/
One thing's for sure, the opinion of an Italy-based troll who names himself after a self-confessed fascist is utterly without value.
In US presidential elections, he has a constantly flow of constituency-level polls. From there perhaps 45 of 50 states were shoo-ins, so the overall result was narrow. There is no such helpful sub-level for the referendum result. So it's just Nate's understanding of how to build a picture from individual polls. (He says as much; do take the opportunity to hear him speak if you can.)
Ultimately I didn't think much of his forecasts - as opposed to nowcasts. But I still got my copy of is book signed...
I haven't read what Nate has said but he did cock the UK election up something proper last time.
Hmm. 3 points behind isn't that different to level pegging.
"Offences involving the use of firearms peaked later than overall violent crime with 24,094 offences being recorded by the police in 2003/04. Since then the number of such offences has fallen by 60% to 9,555 recorded offences in 2011/12. The current 16% fall between 2010/11 and 2011/12 is the eighth consecutive annual decrease in firearm offences."
http://theporridge.co.uk/post/47174608342/nate-silver-scottish-independence-referendum-outcome-a
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00440/Brookes_13_440651a.jpg
Labour were Evil Tories in 1949 #benefitsbritain
However, the polling on economic competence is very telling and Labour supporters would be foolish to brush this aside.
'Your dad smells.'
'So does yours.'
etc.
I think I'm more realistic about dealing with a post No vote than you are about the possibility of a Yes. Imagine, a spatchcocked rUK, the bottom half of a smallish North European island indulging in regular flag waving rituals & theme-parkery to remind itself it once was a contender - grisly.
They might all be wrong, of course. But a good working assumption for betting purposes is that good pollsters know what they're doing, as we saw in the US elections.
UKIP candidates for the European elections were subjected to a “fruitcake test”, it has emerged, as the party announced a list of its hopeful MEPs
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/83401/the_guardian_monday_12th_august_2013.html
"The established conventions for question design in market research would be to ask for a spontaneous response, i.e without mentioning any possible choices, or prompt with all the main alternatives. By this yardstick it becomes difficult to justify continuing to omit mention of UKIP at least, and arguably other smaller parties as well, as they appear to add up to a choice for almost one in five of those who would vote in a new election."
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/07/take-polls-with-large-pinch-of-salt-do-not-consume-in-excess/
Eager to avoid a repeat of the fiasco of May’s local elections, when candidates’ comments ranged from the bigoted to the bizarre, the party imposed a series of challenges that included psychometric testing designed to assess the candidates’ character and judgment.
As the next election approaches I suggest the tendency of some to want to use the vote intention question to send a message of dissatisfaction to those who govern us will slowly be replaced by a more measured, and in some cases reluctant, verdict on which party and party leader has the best and most credible plan for the next 5 years. Principally they will ask themselves which party is going to make them and their families better off. Only then will we be able to see whether support for UKIP and others has been real, or a mirage.
The Devolution referendum sadly doesn't help any BritNat spin about a No vote always being somehow almost inevitable and always bound to rise significantly.
Some of us also remember the staggering complacency from SLAB when they were well ahead in the polls for the 2011 election. That they have learned nothing since then is of course utterly unsurprising.
Will it be WW1 with legions of troops battling for every vote?
Maybe it will be tanks against cavalry as the electorate move on.
Labour need around 40% at the end of 2014 if the fabled 35% strategy is to be realised, in my opinion.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/83404/the_sun_.html
More significantly, are they right that Labour's support is now down to the mid 30s? If so any complacancy based on the 35% base model may be whistling in the dark.
Polling is, and always will be, an art not a science. For example, which of a zillion possible factors do you use for your weightings? ICM, YouGov, Populus, ComRes, and to an extent IPSOS Mori (although they tend to produce very volatile results) have a good track record. Survation... well, we'll see.
Little Ed is playing a 'blinder' and giving Lamont a run for her money in hiding from the voter at the moment. It may well be the height of silly season, when most politics are firmly on the backburner for the public, but if labour are trying to make immigration a hot topic to bolster the kipper vote again then finding someone who knows their arse from their elbow to speak on it might be a start.
So it suggests the NEC ranked Diane James 4th in SE. Some sitting MEPs weren't ranked in top spot too.