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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories must leave and give Corbyn his chance

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963
    theakes said:

    Cannot see the sense of May continuing. Best it were done quickly. Conservatives would be better just being a minority government without any agreement with anyone. What is going on with the DUP is a gross embarresment.

    Yep Agree entirely. Given the Parliamentary maths it is also completely unnecessary unless the DUP is going to decide to side with Labour which seems very unlikely indeed.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Barnesian said:

    theakes said:

    Cannot see the sense of May continuing. Best it were done quickly. Conservatives would be better just being a minority government without any agreement with anyone. What is going on with the DUP is a gross embarresment.

    Agreed. But the Labour party should not attempt to take over, either as a minority government, or by forcing an early General Election. They should avoid the hospital pass and just let the Tories dangle as we hit Brexit and a probable recession. This should cure many people from voting Tory for a generation, and enable a more hopeful future for the many not the few.
    As opposed to the bankruptcy and lost growth of a Corbyn administration
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    theakes said:

    Cannot see the sense of May continuing. Best it were done quickly. Conservatives would be better just being a minority government without any agreement with anyone. What is going on with the DUP is a gross embarresment.

    Yep Agree entirely. Given the Parliamentary maths it is also completely unnecessary unless the DUP is going to decide to side with Labour which seems very unlikely indeed.
    The government needs to know what legislation it can get through as it will not get anything through without DUP support given every other party bar occasionally the LDs will almost always vote against government legislation
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    HYUFD said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it's either David Davis who hasn't run a whelk stall,that "nasty piece of work",old Etonian bully,Boris Johnson or Mogadon Phil who would make an excellent Funeral Director and has he inspirational qualities of a turnip.

    The Tories don't need inspirational qualities just a John Major style technocrat to beat Corbyn
    Corbyn for all his policy faults is a genuine human being, someone like hammond would result in Labour majority.
    Has to be either Ruth or Boris.
    Why? 42% were prepared to vote for May to keep out Corbyn, no reason they might not vote for Hammond to keep out Corbyn too

    A lot of people were afraid of Corbyn and what they had read about him, the problem is he has come out of the election looking both human and a "winner". I have talked to half a dozen friends who didn't vote Labour last week but would do so now. I think a lot of people are reviewing their opinion of him since the GE, something was born out to some extent with Labour taking a 6 point lead in that post GE poll.

    I might vote for a Hammond but not a Tory hell-bent on an ideological Brexit. If the Tories go down that route I would vote Labour and hope the PLP would keep some of Corbyn's crazier notions in check
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it's either David Davis who hasn't run a whelk stall,that "nasty piece of work",old Etonian bully,Boris Johnson or Mogadon Phil who would make an excellent Funeral Director and has he inspirational qualities of a turnip.

    The Tories don't need inspirational qualities just a John Major style technocrat to beat Corbyn
    Corbyn for all his policy faults is a genuine human being, someone like hammond would result in Labour majority.
    Has to be either Ruth or Boris.
    Why? 42% were prepared to vote for May to keep out Corbyn, no reason they might not vote for Hammond to keep out Corbyn too

    A lot of people were afraid of Corbyn and what they had read about him, the problem is he has come out of the election looking both human and a "winner". I have talked to half a dozen friends who didn't vote Labour last week but would do so now. I think a lot of people are reviewing their opinion of him since the GE, something was born out to some extent with Labour taking a 6 point lead in that post GE poll.

    I might vote for a Hammond but not a Tory hell-bent on an ideological Brexit. If the Tories go down that route I would vote Labour and hope the PLP would keep some of Corbyn's crazier notions in check
    Theresa May is just as human as Jeremy Corbyn, and Corbyn lost the election. So I disagree with your points. But I expect there'll be another swing to Labour in London at the next election, mainly due to demographic changes.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963
    edited June 2017
    viewcode said:

    PClipp said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sorry Charles, but the numbers are massive, there are around 5m properties in the private rental sector which means around 7.5m people are living in privately rented accommodation. That is 7.5m people who are pre-disposed to not vote for us. We need to smash this sector and get as many of those people onto the housing ladder as quickly as possible. Tinkering around the edges as you suggest will see Jez or someone like him walk into Downing St on the back of 24-50 year olds breaking decisively for Labour as they feel stuck in privately rented accommodation, paying off someone else's mortgage rather than their own.

    In purely economic terms it is a sector that has a poor multiplier because private landlords, on the whole, spend very little on the properties they rent and overall it is money flowing from younger working people to older non-working people. I don't see how we can win as a party until we are on the side of the former rather than the latter.

    Why do you immediately assess a proposal in terms of whether or not it will benefit the Conservative Party? This is precisely where our political system has gone wrong for very many years.
    I disagree with the Switzerland resident frequently, but in this case MaxPB is 100% correct. The country has become a gerontocracy clinging to positive-equity property like Gollum to the Ring. Young families can't buy houses with close access with green space for the kids to play. In the 60's and 70's, even poor people had that.
    Yep. Thing is that this preoccupation with house prices having to keep going up only matters if you are using your house as an investment rather than a place to live. For anyone who doesn't want to convert their house to cash - and that includes almost everyone on the housing ladder as well as those who have decided they are content with their house as a place to live out their old age - increasing house prices are at best a worry (as, if we introduce an LVT you may end up being taxed on the value of an asset that you have no interest in as a commodity) or at worst is a solid wall preventing people getting on the property ladder and stifling aspiration.

    If done in an orderly manner (which of course is not certain) the best thing that could happen to the housing market for the good of the country is a readjustment of house prices down by 20-30% as a minimum. Of course that means either reducing demand or increasing supply, neither of which are ideal.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it's either David Davis who hasn't run a whelk stall,that "nasty piece of work",old Etonian bully,Boris Johnson or Mogadon Phil who would make an excellent Funeral Director and has he inspirational qualities of a turnip.

    The Tories don't need inspirational qualities just a John Major style technocrat to beat Corbyn
    Corbyn for all his policy faults is a genuine human being, someone like hammond would result in Labour majority.
    Has to be either Ruth or Boris.
    Why? 42% were prepared to vote for May to keep out Corbyn, no reason they might not vote for Hammond to keep out Corbyn too

    A lot of people were afraid of Corbyn and what they had read about him, the problem is he has come out of the election looking both human and a "winner". I have talked to half a dozen friends who didn't vote Labour last week but would do so now. I think a lot of people are reviewing their opinion of him since the GE, something was born out to some extent with Labour taking a 6 point lead in that post GE poll.

    I might vote for a Hammond but not a Tory hell-bent on an ideological Brexit. If the Tories go down that route I would vote Labour and hope the PLP would keep some of Corbyn's crazier notions in check
    A Corbyn McDonnell government would be a hard left socialist government no question, after be lost the 1987 election but having made gains Kinnock built up 20 to 30% leads over Thatcher's Tories but Major still beat him at the next general election as voters were not willing to let him and his left-wing platform into power once the Tories offered a vaguely centrist alternative, a Hammond v Corbyn contest could well turn out the same
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963
    Richard_H said:

    In regard to the fire, the buck stops with Kensington & Chelsea council, for the renovation works and their response to the fire. Had it been a Labour run council, this Tory Government would have been all over this like a rash.

    As I understand it it was the TMO which ordered and oversaw the renovations. Unfortunately you cannot even blame the council necessarily for lack of oversight as I understand that large projects such as this these days use their own standards people under a system of self regulation. How far that extends I simply don't know but I would suggest we need to look at the national regulatory framework rather than necessarily the local council.

    Bringing politics into this in the way you do is ill informed and will often lead to you having to retract comments when you are shown to be wrong.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it's either David Davis who hasn't run a whelk stall,that "nasty piece of work",old Etonian bully,Boris Johnson or Mogadon Phil who would make an excellent Funeral Director and has he inspirational qualities of a turnip.

    The Tories don't need inspirational qualities just a John Major style technocrat to beat Corbyn
    Corbyn for all his policy faults is a genuine human being, someone like hammond would result in Labour majority.
    Has to be either Ruth or Boris.
    Why? 42% were prepared to vote for May to keep out Corbyn, no reason they might not vote for Hammond to keep out Corbyn too

    A lot of people were afraid of Corbyn and what they had read about him, the problem is he has come out of the election looking both human and a "winner". I have talked to half a dozen friends who didn't vote Labour last week but would do so now. I think a lot of people are reviewing their opinion of him since the GE, something was born out to some extent with Labour taking a 6 point lead in that post GE poll.

    I might vote for a Hammond but not a Tory hell-bent on an ideological Brexit. If the Tories go down that route I would vote Labour and hope the PLP would keep some of Corbyn's crazier notions in check
    A Corbyn McDonnell government would be a hard left socialist government no question, after be lost the 1987 election but having made gains Kinnock built up 20 to 30% leads over Thatcher's Tories but Major still beat him at the next general election as voters were not willing to let him and his left-wing platform into power once the Tories offered a vaguely centrist alternative, a Hammond v Corbyn contest could well turn out the same
    I think it will come down to with the government remains on a UKIP-style Brexit course.

    My seat, Chester, had the smallest Labour majority going into the GE, I was convinced that the Tories would walk it, instead the Labour MP polled the highest ever number of votes in the constituency and got a majority of just under 10,000. There is something going on out there and I am not sure the Kinnock v Major landscape is still relevant
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,963
    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    Cannot see the sense of May continuing. Best it were done quickly. Conservatives would be better just being a minority government without any agreement with anyone. What is going on with the DUP is a gross embarresment.

    Yep Agree entirely. Given the Parliamentary maths it is also completely unnecessary unless the DUP is going to decide to side with Labour which seems very unlikely indeed.
    The government needs to know what legislation it can get through as it will not get anything through without DUP support given every other party bar occasionally the LDs will almost always vote against government legislation
    Unless the DUP actively vote against them it doesn't matter.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited June 2017
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it's either David Davis who hasn't run a whelk stall,that "nasty piece of work",old Etonian bully,Boris Johnson or Mogadon Phil who would make an excellent Funeral Director and has he inspirational qualities of a turnip.

    The Tories don't need inspirational qualities just a John Major style technocrat to beat Corbyn
    Corbyn for all his policy faults is a genuine human being, someone like hammond would result in Labour majority.
    Has to be either Ruth or Boris.
    Why? 42% were prepared to vote for May to keep out Corbyn, no reason they might not vote for Hammond to keep out Corbyn too

    A lot of people were afraid of Corbyn and what they had read about him, the problem is he has come out of the election looking both human and a "winner". I have talked to half a dozen friends who didn't vote Labour last week but would do so now. I think a lot of people are reviewing their opinion of him since the GE, something was born out to some extent with Labour taking a 6 point lead in that post GE poll.

    I might vote for a Hammond but not a Tory hell-bent on an ideological Brexit. If the Tories go down that route I would vote Labour and hope the PLP would keep some of Corbyn's crazier notions in check
    A Corbyn McDonnell government would be a hard left socialist government no question, after be lost the 1987 election but having made gains Kinnock built up 20 to 30% leads over Thatcher's Tories but Major still beat him at the next general election as voters were not willing to let him and his left-wing platform into power once the Tories offered a vaguely centrist alternative, a Hammond v Corbyn contest could well turn out the same
    I think it will come down to with the government remains on a UKIP-style Brexit course.

    My seat, Chester, had the smallest Labour majority going into the GE, I was convinced that the Tories would walk it, instead the Labour MP polled the highest ever number of votes in the constituency and got a majority of just under 10,000. There is something going on out there and I am not sure the Kinnock v Major landscape is still relevant
    Yet the Tories on 42% got exactly the same voteshare as they did in 1987, Chester has a lot of students from the University of Chester and has moved away from the Tories, the Tories could now lose Chester and still get a majority
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    theakes said:

    Cannot see the sense of May continuing. Best it were done quickly. Conservatives would be better just being a minority government without any agreement with anyone. What is going on with the DUP is a gross embarresment.

    Yep Agree entirely. Given the Parliamentary maths it is also completely unnecessary unless the DUP is going to decide to side with Labour which seems very unlikely indeed.
    The government needs to know what legislation it can get through as it will not get anything through without DUP support given every other party bar occasionally the LDs will almost always vote against government legislation
    Unless the DUP actively vote against them it doesn't matter.
    Yes but they need to know where they might vote against them
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:



    Sorry Charles, but the numbers are massive, there are around 5m properties in the private rental sector which means around 7.5m people are living in privately rented accommodation. That is 7.5m people who are pre-disposed to not vote for us. We need to smash this sector and get as many of those people onto the housing ladder as quickly as possible. Tinkering around the edges as you suggest will see Jez or someone like him walk into Downing St on the back of 24-50 year olds breaking decisively for Labour as they feel stuck in privately rented accommodation, paying off someone else's mortgage rather than their own.

    In purely economic terms it is a sector that has a poor multiplier because private landlords, on the whole, spend very little on the properties they rent and overall it is money flowing from younger working people to older non-working people. I don't see how we can win as a party until we are on the side of the former rather than the latter.

    You want to "smash the rental sector"? And this is your plan for winning Conservative votes?

    Jesus.
    A net transfer of 400k properties per year from private landlords to first time buyers. Of course you won't support that because it increases our pool of potential voters and reduces Labour's.
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    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    Sorry Charles, but the numbers are massive, there are around 5m properties in the private rental sector which means around 7.5m people are living in privately rented accommodation. That is 7.5m people who are pre-disposed to not vote for us. We need to smash this sector and get as many of those people onto the housing ladder as quickly as possible. Tinkering around the edges as you suggest will see Jez or someone like him walk into Downing St on the back of 24-50 year olds breaking decisively for Labour as they feel stuck in privately rented accommodation, paying off someone else's mortgage rather than their own.

    In purely economic terms it is a sector that has a poor multiplier because private landlords, on the whole, spend very little on the properties they rent and overall it is money flowing from younger working people to older non-working people. I don't see how we can win as a party until we are on the side of the former rather than the latter.

    You want to "smash the rental sector"? And this is your plan for winning Conservative votes?

    Jesus.
    A net transfer of 400k properties per year from private landlords to first time buyers. Of course you won't support that because it increases our pool of potential voters and reduces Labour's.
    Desperate.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    MaxPB said:



    A net transfer of 400k properties per year from private landlords to first time buyers. Of course you won't support that because it increases our pool of potential voters and reduces Labour's.

    No, I'm against it for purely personal reasons - it would seriously impact the opportunitis people like me who for whatever reason prefer to rent.

    But I do incidentally think that you'd alienate from the Tories a whole generation of younger people permanently, so it does have an upside. Mrs May is now short of people to advise her on vote-losing policies - you should apply. :)
This discussion has been closed.