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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s YouGov finds improving perceptions about the state
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s YouGov finds improving perceptions about the state of the economy
Note that the changes in the voting chart are with what happened in the same Sunday Times poll at exactly the same time a year ago.
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With a little under two years to the next election, it is looking promising for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
Edit: and first.
How much money have they had from Lord Sainsbury ?
All a coincidence....
Last year saw the introduction of the new
system of tuition fees in England. Under the
new scheme, students do not have to pay
tuition fees up front, but pay them through a
student loan which they will have to pay back
after graduation once they are earning over
£21,000 a year. Most universities charge fees of
between £8000 and £9000 a year.
Regardless of whether or not you support the
cost of university degrees being paid through
tuition fees, do you think a university education
is or is not worth £9000 a year...
[Only asked to respondents in England and Wales
n=1692]
At Oxford or Cambridge?
Is worth £9000 a year: 52
Not worth: 29
Not sure: 18
At other highly rated Universities?
Is worth £9000 a year: 37
Not worth: 41
Not sure: 21
At ordinary universities outside of the top twenty?
Worth:12
Not worth: 65
Not sure: 23
It has been apparent for some time that many of the former technical colleges which are now called universities do not have the calibre of staff, teaching or research to compete on the world stage. Thus they should revert to being technical colleges that serve their local community who would then still live at home and not have to undergo maintenance costs. There will be screams of outrage from the academia and now-Professors, but in these competitive times students should not have to pay for a quality of service that is not world-class.
In China, undergraduates are now very concerned about getting a job in their home country; these young, ambitious, hardworking and well-qualified people will be looking for jobs in Europe and USA if they cannot find them at home and many UK graduates will be left trailing in their wake.
The Conservatives are + 1 in the Observer poll last night, I thought we had to look at the share not the lead ?
Camerons summer offensive against UKIP, seems to have reversed the loonies fruitcakes and closet racists into normal discourse.
Other interesting points not already mentioned: big majority for banning zero hours contracts and thinking them "usually" exploitative. Pretty even splits on all the issues around child allowances, but most people think the Government should neither encourage nor discourage mothers to stay at home. Labour lead on NHS up 3 to 32-20. 51% favour talks with Spain over Gib, excluding sovereignty, 22% want to negotiate on that too, 12% want to send gunboats and use force - UKIP voters not all that different from the rest (55/13/24). A 5-1 majority for social networks requiring proof of identity - young people more doubtful but still 54-33 in favour.
Osborne is the new Anthony Barber 1970 to 74 regarding a banking system under the title of 'Competition and Credit Control', leading to a high level of lending, much of it to speculative property concerns
One prediction - as voters become more optimistic about the economy, they will become better disposed towards all party leaders. That, of course, has betting implications.
Live stream here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
Probably slightly unfair to the Tories to use Labour`s best Youguv poll in days to compare last years` poll with.Gives a slightly skewed picture.
Labour needs a good cull of dead wood.I haven`t heard anything from several members of the shadow cabinet in months.While energy prices and company profits have been going up,Caroline Flint,shadow energy secretary has completely shut up.? Candidate for cull
Both are bottom feeding scum
If he's clever - or, let me rephrase that, if he's cleverer than his opponents - he may be able to give labour ownership of the economy up to about now - yes, it took 3 years to clear up labour's mess - and run a rather convincing "don't let them wreck it again" argument.
Some economists I've read expect real wages to start picking up next year but I don't think that will be enough on its own.
If the tories want to win they will have to show voters a little money in the form of tax cuts before the next election, not promise them afterwards.
Doing well (net)
Cameron: -15 (+6)
Miliband: -36 (-15)
Good friend of mine is running for Congress in MA 6th - currently challenging the incumbent in the Democrat primary. Any views on probabilities?
Peter Hitchens channelling you...
"Here comes the next housing disaster
I have yet to come across a serious economist who does not despise the Government’s ludicrous plans to subsidise home buyers, so inflating the housing market.
I have yet to come across an economist who does not think the current so-called ‘boom’ is credit-based, and no different in principle from New Labour’s rash policy of ten years ago.
It also involves thieving from savers by imposing comically low interest rates.
So why is there so much uncritical boosting in the media of this dangerous, unfair and doomed adventure?
Why are commentators pretending that the Tories, at 28 per cent in the polls, are set for victory at the next Election? Ask them."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2389180/PETER-HITCHENS-Since-saving-children-lifestyle-choice.html#ixzz2beL6h3Ea
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Students living at home are more likely to drop out, iirc, so I'd be sceptical of that policy. What might be better is a return to the days when polys would offer evening classes leading to HNCs and degrees for those in work. The new funding arrangements discriminate against part-time courses but could surely be revised.
Which shows the damage done by the ill-advised Labour campaign. There are problems, and some employers are exploiting their workers. But an outright ban would have significant impacts on others, including, from what I recall, your good self.
They have really ballsed this one up.
In the camp that says yes we have tim.
In the camp that says no we have Mark Carney.
I know who I trust more on economics.
My taxes have gone up. Which I don't have a particular problem with. I do get annoyed that I don't have a personal allowance, but largely because I think it is disingenuous to try and hide the actual marginal rate of tax.
Agreed. To win the tories need to take the burden off the low and moderately paid even more. Scrap the lowest band of stamp duty. Jack up basic tax thresholds much more.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/
Perhaps Hariet Harman can advice on another handbrake U turn once, she has worked out her position over betting
"THE website Ask.fm, on which Hannah Smith, 14, received hate messages before she was found hanged, has provoked further controversy by claiming she posted many of the comments herself.
Ask.fm executives are understood to have said privately that the company has analysed the profiles of the senders of the bullying messages and concluded that Hannah had set up most of the anonymous identities herself and sent the vast majority of the messages.
“With the Hannah case, the company have looked at every identity — the IP addresses are trackable. She posted the anonymous things herself. The police has all that data,” a source claimed. In private briefings last week, the company said “98%” of the messages had come from the same IP address as Hannah’s, with about four posts that had not.
The company’s claim is likely to further upset those who say the company is not doing enough to tackle internet trolls on its website after it was widely blamed for Hannah’s death. In a post on his Facebook page yesterday, her father David Smith reacted angrily to the company’s claims that Hannah had been sending the messages to herself..." http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/Tech/article1298958.ece
Anything Labour comes up with now will be tarnished by association. Which is a shame, as something needs to be done to curb some exploitation. But as usual, some politicians show their mouths off before thinking.
What intelligent front-bench responses? You mean like Andy Burnham calling for them to be banned?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22328897
Compare with Vince Cable's much more measured remarks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23570345
Admit it Nick, it's been a blooming mess for your team.
I bet if we asked if temping, freelancing and casual work be banned - the uproar would be huge.
Bizarre badly informed posturing.
Zero hours contracts aren't particularly a right/left issue
That could indicate that Labour's support is soft, people registering protests mid-term who will put their actual vote elsewhere when the real thing comes about.
On the other hand, it could indicate that Labour's share is rock solid, people will vote for them despite having some doubts (primarily because whatever their faults, they're better than the Tories). And also that any improvement in "under the bonnet" scores can only increase / further solidify their share.
If zero hour contracts were to be banned, would we have to offer the gardener a full time job, or would we just sack him and do it ourselves (putting pressure on the expansion of our business and perhaps consequently not being able to employ the people we're planning on doing)?
“The truth is, the market isn’t working because it’s not transparent enough.”
“The truth is when those wholesale prices go up they put it up on our bills but when they go down we don’t see it turn the other way.”
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/83266/the_sad_truth_is_caroline.html
Shouting out the same chorus doesn't help spread the message.
As for this poll, it's not entirely surprising, as while how people feel generally will inform how they feel the economy is going (given most people do not understand economics very well), there has been a range of positive news stories which will make people more positive. If it becomes sustained the Tories may see a bit of a bump, as people should actually start to feel the difference, which they will need if they are to have any chance.
Given the recovery is after when the Tories suggested it would be, and their own original deficit plans are still in tatters, the question is whether people will feel it is happening in spite of the Tories or because of them. While Labour have not exactly inspired people with their own talk, I think unless they shoot themselves in the foot, people will be inclined to go with the former explanation rather than the latter.
Labour - the minds of goldfish in action.
But of course the same people who complain aren't willing to pay a little more or suffer a little more inconvenience in order to safeguard their beloved local shops when the bigger shops open, so I tend to view such histrionics as one of the purest forms of Nimbyism.
She was clearly a very unhappy and ill young lady. Her parents are understandably totally raw about it.
Right Sort of Medal.
'Students living at home are more likely to drop out, iirc, so I'd be sceptical of that policy.'
I recall reading some research along those lines - I think with links to late application/lack of commitment to course/no history of further ed in family etc.
Some stats came out recently on further ed take up for FSM students (though only up to 2011). High in London, less so in other areas overall. Lots of potential links there re across London school performance etc, but I'd be interested to see if a link between access and ability to live at home. Many more options in London.
And people like to see X numbers of jobs announced of course - you get bigger, sexier numbers with the supermarkets etc, so it makes people feel better to see it, whereas the losses from myriad smaller groups are harder to grasp.
Meanwhile, the Labour 41 figure merely reinforces Miliband's drag on their popularity.
Less is more, he hasn't gone away you know
The last thing this country needs is a consumer led recovery.
Since wages have been increasing less than inflation for some years, a consumer led recovery can only be funded by even more consumer debt. This is not a sustainable situation and just results in the familiar boom/bust.
What the country needs is a business investment led recovery so that British business provides more goods and services for export and to replace imports. The country's balance of payments is horrendous and can not go on for ever being financed by selling the country's wealth to overseas companies and private individuals.
electionista @electionista
From a 63% high to a 23% low: % of voters satisfied with #France President Hollande since May '12 by polling company
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRYZGwbCUAAYEWU.jpg:large
As for Clegg, if he moves one cabinet member the whole lot shiver.
The sad truth that is percolating through more and more minds is that these three parties are all the same. The British people are slowly waking up to this fact. As Lincoln said: "You can fool the people.................etc. Even the British won't be fooled forever.
Sad to see Labour again campaigning against a policy that supports social mobility because it's politically expedient for them to do so.
That there has been such a noticable rise in seeing positive signs and, despite being over 50, a significant drop in those seeing no sign of positive recovery, probably means people are beginning to see it though, and the positive news coverage has been working, it's just taking awhile. The next chart on this topic could be very different.
Zero hours - no, JJ, we'll have to agree to disagree. I think it's a (sadly rare) case of Labour identifying an issue that's easy to explain, raising its salience, and having a reasonable prospect of a decent policy to deal with it. We need to handle more issues like that.
From what you say this is a very loose arrangement , presumably there is no written contract and your gardener is free to take on any other work he is offered . The problems arise , in my view , when there is a restrictive contract where the " employee " is not allowed to do so .
When a compromise does occur (and hopefully the problems are addressed), Miliband will be asked why he has not done what many in Labour have called for and banned them. Is it because of the Co-Op using them, or Labour councils?
In other words, it'll be seen as a compromise to help their own vested interests.
And will Miliband have the guts to say (rightly) that Burnham and others calling for the ban have got it wrong? And then people will ask whether he's saying that because of the vested interests.
They let their enthusiasms to be seen to doing something run away with them. Sadly too many politicians do this, as do most of us in the real world.
They did not analyse the problem before coming up with a proposed solution.
Oh well.
Was it worth knifing your brother for this? to be Unites B**ch?
Schards: "Meanwhile, the Labour 41 figure merely reinforces Miliband's drag on their popularity."
Eh? More drags that helped produce that result will be entirely welcome. I think it's an outlier, but whatever it is, it's jolly good.
As the media narrative switches into a more fulsome acknowledgement that Osborne has been right all along, public perception should also start moving; at a guess, I'd say this will begin to show through in voting intention figures in late 2013 or early 2014.
Of course, much can go wrong, although one thing that certainly won't go wrong is a housing bubble, as a cursory look at the actual figures immediately demonstrates. On the other hand, the increased confidence is already boosting housebuilding activity and reducing the log-jam in the market. Deflation and collapsing transaction volumes are of course just as damaging as inflation and a bubble; once again, Osborne is steering a well-judged path between the two.
* Not remarkable to me, BTW. I predicted here at the new year that the economy would surprise people on the upside in 2013, to, if I recall correctly, much derision from the usual suspects.
But on pb, even good Conservative principles are forgotten in the rush to hurl abuse at the Opposition.
They placed 2nd at Eastleigh, on a 52% turnout.
So your odds on them not coming 1st or 2nd in ANY seat in the GE should be quite generous . Tempt me .
With no double dip and no triple dip, it looks like Osborne was right about the direction of recovery just a bit off with the pace. Still you only have to be better than your opposition and at the start of this year Balls was banging on about the economic catastrophe we were facing under Osborne's plans.
You are making the same mistake Labour made in their kneejerk reaction: not all zero-hours contracts are the same, as mentioned by MarkSenior and others below. Many zero-hours contracts allow a flexible workforce and for useful skills to be shared efficiently between companies.
Hence attractive to Conservatives.
When working properly, both sides should be satisfied. The problem is that in some cases they are being used egregiously, and are much more to the employer's benefit than the employee's.
I was possibly the first to raise this issue on PB a couple of months ago. At the time I said that something needed to be done about the excesses, but banning was not the answer. I haven't shifted away from that position.
Sadly, some still haven't grasped that.
Bev.
25% of £300,000 = £75,000
Even if your imaginary bubble produced a 33% increase of house prices (it won't) it will still be hugely beneficial for first time buyers wanting to get on to the housing ladder.
In reality, outside of London, there is likely to be a minimal rise in prices and the opportunity of home ownership will be available to many thousands of hard working aspiring people who don't have the benefit of the bank of mum and dad.