Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB share drops 3 with Opinium and sees its lead down to 7

SystemSystem Posts: 12,250
edited August 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB share drops 3 with Opinium and sees its lead down to 7 percent

What's significant about Opinium is that the declining LAB lead is mostly down to its share falling 3% rather than CON progress

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,259
    edited August 2013
    Sleazy broken Labour on the slide.

    Labour do appear to slipping a bit with quite a few pollsters.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,761
    It feels as if Ed Miliband's leadership is teetering. His forthcoming conference speech could be a make-or-break affair. He desperately needs to hijack an old Tory slogan for it, as that goes down well with the anti-Cameron right-wing press ('Ed plays a blinder with his audacious raid on Conservative territory' etc.) I suggest 'Blood, sweat and tears' or 'You turn if you want to.' ('You've never had it so good' might not be the wisest option.)
  • On topic and reply into Stodge

    I guess I just can't imagine at the GE UKIP polling 17% nor can imagine the Lib Dems polling 9%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,259
    edited August 2013

    It feels as if Ed Miliband's leadership is teetering. His forthcoming conference speech could be a make-or-break affair. He desperately needs to hijack an old Tory slogan for it, as that goes down well with the anti-Cameron right-wing press ('Ed plays a blinder with his audacious raid on Conservative territory' etc.) I suggest 'Blood, sweat and tears' or 'You turn if you want to.' ('You've never had it so good' might not be the wisest option.)

    I hope he goes for "Back to Basics"
  • UKIP up , LibDems up , Tories up , Labour down.

    In mid-term.

    Something has gone profoundly wrong for Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,089
    edited August 2013
    UKIP still in bloom.
  • No need for Labour to panic, they are heading in the right direction, for me. Contrast that with Mr Manson's assertion this morning that "Labour likely to be in power of some sort".
    We have seen in ICM, Youguv, Populus and now Opinium a drop in Lab's lead, but these are regarded by most of our Labour posters as mere flesh wounds.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    UKIP up , LibDems up , Tories up , Labour down.

    In mid-term.

    Something has gone profoundly wrong for Labour.

    These numbers would produce a majority for Labour.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sainsbury's car park was half-empty this morning; perhaps the missing Labour supporters are on holiday.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    I am getting worried by Ed Miliband's absence.

    I fear he might have drowned in Greece.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,517
    OGH - Labour has dropped 3%, with that 3% divided equally between Tories, UKIP and LD, not much progress granted, but still the Tories have taken a 1/3 of Labour switchers which is not the same as no progress at all. If the Tories cut UKIP back to 5% from 17% and won all of those 12% cut from the UKIP score the Tory share would be 41%, even if the Tories won not one new Labour switcher and the Labour score remained at 36%. With the LDs on 9% that could be enough to give a tiny Tory majority
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013

    Sainsbury's car park was half-empty this morning; perhaps the missing Labour supporters are on holiday.

    They are all shopping at Aldi and Lidl, boosting Germany's GNP.

    Talking of which, the German Ministry of Economics announced on Friday that they expected German GDP to have expanded at 0.6% in Q2 2013, matching the UK rate, but that growth would fall back over the second half and that the German Central Bank's forecast of 0.3% growth for the full year was still valid.

    The Eurozone really is in a mess. It can't even climb out of double dip recession without faltering. George would put them right.
  • Well that Labour strategy of aiming for 35% seems on track.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AveryLP said:

    Talking of which, the German Ministry of Economics announced on Friday that they expected German GDP to have expanded at 0.6% in Q2 2013, matching the UK rate, but that growth would fall back over the second half and that the German Central Bank's forecast of 0.3% growth for the full year was still valid.

    The Eurozone really is in a mess. It can't even climb out of second dip recession without faltering. George would put them right.

    Thanks to Gordon Brown, our Chancellor has no input to Eurozone economic policy.
  • On topic and reply into Stodge

    I guess I just can't imagine at the GE UKIP polling 17% nor can imagine the Lib Dems polling 9%

    I agree that I can't imagine UKIP polling 17% but I can certainly imagine the Lib Dems being sub 10%
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Well that Labour strategy of aiming for 35% seems on track.

    It won't be long until all Labour are left with is the 2010 Lib Dems.

  • PJCPJC Posts: 1
    Has any Labour leader ever been disposed of by the party?
  • PJC said:

    Has any Labour leader ever been disposed of by the party?

    Tony Blair
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,517
    edited August 2013
    TSE - With who? Balls would be even worse, Chukka will not want to take the hit in 2015 but emerge as leader AFTER a defeat, the only viable alternatives then are Cooper and Burnham and I doubt there is much enthusiasm for either within Labour
  • HYUFD said:

    TSE - With who? Balls would be even worse, Chukka will not want to take the hit in 2015 but emerge as leader AFTER a defeat, the only viable alternatives then are Cooper and Burnham and I doubt there is much enthusiasm for either within Labour

    Ed is unassailable as Labour leader.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    PJC said:

    Has any Labour leader ever been disposed of by the party?

    Ramsay MacDonald.

    Depression on his watch too.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,311
    PJC said:

    Has any Labour leader ever been disposed of by the party?

    There were rumours about Gaitskell, but different Party..
  • Off topic.

    I've returned from a few days in Qatar.

    There's no way they can stage a World Cup in the summer.

    Will be impracticable for both the fans and the players.

    I mean I've ended up with a SunTan.

    And that's with my skin colour!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    edited August 2013
    The only shot Lab has is that it's "the wrong kind of recovery".

    But if it is too broad-ranging and if everyone can see it (and yes incomes are down, unemployment is too high, there will be significant benefit changs which will generate losers), then I genuinely don't see where Labour has to go.

    Cons could stick the knife in by appointing to a senior position a local lad* from Worksop who neither went to public school, oxbridge, etc nor currently lives in Notting Dale (as I believe they call "that" bit now).

    But of course that would be crazy....

    *Edit: or of course, ahem, gal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,517
    TSE - Indeed, he is Labour's John Kerry, a man who flip-flops on whether to support or oppose the key issue of the day (in Kerry's case Iraq, in Miliband's case austerity) and who the big beasts in his party will quite happily take the hit in an election in their heart of hearts they feel they will probably lose, with the election after the one at which they want to wear the crown
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    TOPPING said:

    The only shot Lab has is that it's "the wrong kind of recovery".

    But if it is too broad-ranging and if everyone can see it (and yes incomes are down, unemployment is too high, there will be significant benefit changs which will generate losers), then I genuinely don't see where Labour has to go.

    Cons could stick the knife in by appointing to a senior position a local lad* from Worksop who neither went to public school, oxbridge, etc nor currently lives in Notting Dale (as I believe they call "that" bit now).

    But of course that would be crazy....

    *Edit: or of course, ahem, gal

    Not tim?

  • I never knew Avery was a columnist for the Sunday Mirror/People

    David Cameron may win on the economy so Ed Miliband needs a new tune

    If living standards have ­improved by 2015, or look like they’re about to, then Cameron’s austerity worked and he’ll get another five years as PM


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/opinion/news-opinion/david-cameron-win-economy-ed-2149434#ixzz2bahglIjm
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,089
    edited August 2013
    As SeanT might say, a flatulent pomposity of a poll for the main parties — in particular Labour.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    AveryLP said:

    TOPPING said:

    The only shot Lab has is that it's "the wrong kind of recovery".

    But if it is too broad-ranging and if everyone can see it (and yes incomes are down, unemployment is too high, there will be significant benefit changs which will generate losers), then I genuinely don't see where Labour has to go.

    Cons could stick the knife in by appointing to a senior position a local lad* from Worksop who neither went to public school, oxbridge, etc nor currently lives in Notting Dale (as I believe they call "that" bit now).

    But of course that would be crazy....

    *Edit: or of course, ahem, gal

    Not tim?

    tim is Lynton's greatest creation. He is waiting for the right time to "bring him back" with the consequential uproar.

    We're not quite there yet.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    If it goes ahead in Qatar at all (and I very much doubt it) it would be one to watch from the pub/bierkellar/bar at home.

    The idiots at uefa would be banging a very big nail in their own coffin.

    Russia 2018 may shape up to be fun though. If there is one thing those Ruskies like it is a few drinkies and a bit of passion!

    Off topic.

    I've returned from a few days in Qatar.

    There's no way they can stage a World Cup in the summer.

    Will be impracticable for both the fans and the players.

    I mean I've ended up with a SunTan.

    And that's with my skin colour!

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.
  • Opinium/The Sunil:

    Coalition 38%
    Labour 36%

    OR if you prefer:

    Tory/UKIP 46%
    Labour 36%
  • Off topic.

    I've returned from a few days in Qatar.

    There's no way they can stage a World Cup in the summer.

    Will be impracticable for both the fans and the players.

    I mean I've ended up with a SunTan.

    And that's with my skin colour!

    Welcome back TSE! Agree re. Qatar football, unless a winter reschedule is possible, though that would put most European domestic League seasons in chaos.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Off topic.

    I've returned from a few days in Qatar.

    There's no way they can stage a World Cup in the summer.

    Will be impracticable for both the fans and the players.

    I mean I've ended up with a SunTan.

    And that's with my skin colour!

    From today's news.

    "World Cup in Qatar 'impossible' in summer, says Greg Dyke"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/23640800

    Is TSE an imposter? I think we should be told.

  • Russia 2018 may shape up to be fun though. If there is one thing those Ruskies like it is a few drinkies and a bit of passion!


    Not if you're a gayer, presumably!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited August 2013
    IOS said:

    I think we need a book on when UKIP membership will over take Tory membership.

    On present trends it looks around 2016/7 but could be as soon as 2015.

    And SNP membership seems to have overtaken SLab membership approximately 5 years ago. We live in interesting times. Lab-Con hegemony is coming to a close.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ah ha! Can it be; no I dont beleive it! It's UKIP, staring all those PBers in the eyes and saying not only are we here to stay but we will go on improving our position right up to the 2015 GE.

    Good old Godfrey; here's to you.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Opinium on EU withdrawal:
    STAY 32%
    LEAVE 53%
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Charles said:

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
    Much drivel being posted about an opinion poll where all the movements are within Margin of Error not only of the previous Opinium Poll but also of their last umpteen polls . For example their poll from mid April had Lab 35 Con 29 UKIP 17 LD 8 so no significant change at all in 4 months .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    edited August 2013
    MikeK said:

    Ah ha! Can it be; no I dont beleive it! It's UKIP, staring all those PBers in the eyes and saying not only are we here to stay but we will go on improving our position right up to the 2015 GE.

    Good old Godfrey; here's to you.

    As a Kipper, Godfrey should have hi-lighted the 18bn GBP we give to Europe annually. But they are developed white countries after all :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Is this the first poll recently showing Labour below 37%? I can't see any on UK Polling report for yonks.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I was thinking of passhun for football, but each to their own.

    I am rather thinking of going to that one. Fun place Russia!


    Russia 2018 may shape up to be fun though. If there is one thing those Ruskies like it is a few drinkies and a bit of passion!


    Not if you're a gayer, presumably!


    Russia 2018 may shape up to be fun though. If there is one thing those Ruskies like it is a few drinkies and a bit of passion!


    Not if you're a gayer, presumably!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,259
    edited August 2013
    felix said:

    Is this the first poll recently showing Labour below 37%? I can't see any on UK Polling report for yonks.

    Last month's ICM had Labour on 36%

    Edit: And Survation last week also had Labour on 36
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited August 2013
    How long will it be before th EU stars replace HM Crown on British Forces emblems, cap badges & Colours EU defense force is on its way?

    But birth certificates first. Baby steps in takeovers is a typical tactic by fascist, Communist and now EU government.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    "There are about 25 million homes in the UK, of which seven out of 10 are owner-occupied. The number of home owners has risen by more than one million since 1997 alone."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456991/html/default.stm

    and the owners of the other 30% have no objection to effort-free capital gains. The trick will be to sell them the horror story lab govt > fiscal incontinence > interest rate rise > crash! A disgusting strategy, but that's not to say it won't work.
  • Sunil - Thanks

    Charles - Greg Dyke, was a Labour activist/supporter and now a Lib Dem, I am not Greg Dyke
  • I was thinking of passhun for football, but each to their own.

    I am rather thinking of going to that one. Fun place Russia!


    Russia 2018 may shape up to be fun though. If there is one thing those Ruskies like it is a few drinkies and a bit of passion!


    Not if you're a gayer, presumably!


    Russia 2018 may shape up to be fun though. If there is one thing those Ruskies like it is a few drinkies and a bit of passion!


    Not if you're a gayer, presumably!
    Sorry should have made it clearer - I was thinking more of your quote:

    Russia 2018 may shape up to be fun though

    Not if you're a gayer, presumably!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Ah ha! Can it be; no I dont beleive it! It's UKIP, staring all those PBers in the eyes and saying not only are we here to stay but we will go on improving our position right up to the 2015 GE.

    Good old Godfrey; here's to you.

    As a Kipper, Godfrey should have hi-lighted the 18bn GBP we give to Europe annually. But they are developed white countries after all :)
    Oh he did and has, Sunnil, many, many times.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    felix said:

    Is this the first poll recently showing Labour below 37%? I can't see any on UK Polling report for yonks.

    Last month's ICM had Labour on 36%

    Edit: And Survation last week also had Labour on 36

    OK - fair point.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Polls should be taken in batches, not individually. There does seem to be a slow closing of the gap between Labour and Tory this year, but it isn't all that pronounced yet.

    When do we think we will next get a poll showing the Conservatives in the lead? I doubt we'll see one this year.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    felix said:

    Is this the first poll recently showing Labour below 37%? I can't see any on UK Polling report for yonks.

    Last month's ICM had Labour on 36%

    Edit: And Survation last week also had Labour on 36
    It won't be long before the usual suspects start claiming Labour on 36 is an outlier.

    On the upside.

    It'll happen before EU stars appear on Paras' berets. I warrant you.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
    Much drivel being posted about an opinion poll where all the movements are within Margin of Error not only of the previous Opinium Poll but also of their last umpteen polls . For example their poll from mid April had Lab 35 Con 29 UKIP 17 LD 8 so no significant change at all in 4 months .
    Then look at the change over TWELVE months.
    Agreed , that is much more meaningful .exactly a year ago , Opinium had Lab 40 Con 31 LD 10 UKIP 10

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Chuka Umanu, ED Balls, Yvette Cooper/Balls, Burnham, Rachel Reeves....are Labour serious, really?
  • antifrank said:

    Polls should be taken in batches, not individually. There does seem to be a slow closing of the gap between Labour and Tory this year, but it isn't all that pronounced yet.

    When do we think we will next get a poll showing the Conservatives in the lead? I doubt we'll see one this year.

    We could see that poll in a few days time, if the ICM last month wasn't an outlier, and I suspect it was.

    For the record, I expect the ICM this month to show a Labour lead.

    I'm hoping that a YouGov shows a Tory lead this year, this is totally unconnected to me a holding a 2/1 betting slip on such an occurrence.
  • MikeK said:

    How long will it be before th EU stars replace HM Crown on British Forces emblems, cap badges & Colours EU defense force is on its way?

    But birth certificates first. Baby steps in takeovers is a typical tactic by fascist, Communist and now EU government.

    English is an official language of the EU, so I would simply annex invite all EU members into the Commonwealth. We've had some kind of administrative and/or liberating role in the histories of virtually all Member states at some stage :)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    #Swingback.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    MikeK said:

    How long will it be before th EU stars replace HM Crown on British Forces emblems, cap badges & Colours EU defense force is on its way?

    But birth certificates first. Baby steps in takeovers is a typical tactic by fascist, Communist and now EU government.

    You should be delighted. The eurokrauts won't stop as they try to engineer their superstate, overtly or covertly, it's what they do, it is the sole reason for their existence. They can only more forward, like the shark.

    But this means that at some point (probably quite soon) they will propose and enforce something so outrageous (direct EU taxes? an elected EU prez?) that even a Tory prime minister, hell, even a Labour prime minister, will be forced to grant a referendum and we will vote to quit.

    The RMS Titanic of EU Federalism is on course to collide with the iceberg of UK euroscepticism, something europhiles have desperately tried to avoid since 1975.


    I think that an EU stamp replacing the UK crown on British birth certificates is outrageous enough.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,110
    MikeK said:

    How long will it be before th EU stars replace HM Crown on British Forces emblems, cap badges & Colours EU defense force is on its way?

    But birth certificates first. Baby steps in takeovers is a typical tactic by fascist, Communist and now EU government.

    Insidious, isn't it?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Personally it bothers me less than Harry Styles haircut.

    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    How long will it be before th EU stars replace HM Crown on British Forces emblems, cap badges & Colours EU defense force is on its way?

    But birth certificates first. Baby steps in takeovers is a typical tactic by fascist, Communist and now EU government.

    Insidious, isn't it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I've heard that the EU is drawing up plans to require every incorporated town to fly a 30 foot version of the EU flag and to make it compulsory for all EU citizens resident in the borough to kneel before it five times a day, summoning them by playing Ode To Joy over tannoys at the appointed time on pain of ten year prison sentences for those defaulting without a doctor's certificate or a permission from an EU-appointed officer.
  • antifrank said:

    I've heard that the EU is drawing up plans to require every incorporated town to fly a 30 foot version of the EU flag and to make it compulsory for all EU citizens resident in the borough to kneel before it five times a day, summoning them by playing Ode To Joy over tannoys at the appointed time on pain of ten year prison sentences for those defaulting without a doctor's certificate or a permission from an EU-appointed officer.

    Excellent idea, Ode to Joy is one the finest pieces of music ever written.

    Though having watched The Lone Ranger today, The William Tell Overture maybe a contender now
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    antifrank said:

    I've heard that the EU is drawing up plans to require every incorporated town to fly a 30 foot version of the EU flag and to make it compulsory for all EU citizens resident in the borough to kneel before it five times a day, summoning them by playing Ode To Joy over tannoys at the appointed time on pain of ten year prison sentences for those defaulting without a doctor's certificate or a permission from an EU-appointed officer.

    I wouldn't be a bit surprised antifrankie. ;)
  • I know a couple of PBers live in Sweden, and a few visit the country, so this is a public service announcement

    Swedish men told to beware testicle-munching fish

    Experts have warned Swedish men to keep their swimming trunks on if taking a dip in a sound off the country's southern coast, after a South American fish known for attacking testicles was discovered in the area.

    "And its mouth is not so big, so of course it normally eats nuts, fruit, and small fish, but human testicles are just a natural target. It's not normal to get your testicles bitten off, of course, but it can happen, especially now in Sweden."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/sweden/10234986/Swedish-men-told-to-beware-testicle-munching-fish.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,110

    Personally it bothers me less than Harry Styles haircut.

    Where would you draw the line? How about all government stationary only displaying the EU flag?
  • Hoorar I'm back - Bale is still loosely at the Lane, economic data from the UK seems remarkably strong from the headlines I've seen whils away and Labour still beating itself up.

    The Balls family appear to be lost somewhere, was Harriet running Labour the last few weeks or did all the reds pack their bags and leave NPxMP in charge?
  • Personally it bothers me less than Harry Styles haircut.


    Moi aussi.
  • RobD said:

    Personally it bothers me less than Harry Styles haircut.

    Where would you draw the line? How about all government stationary only displaying the EU flag?
    I draw the line at Harry Styles' music.

    There's more evil in a One Direction album than in a Al Qaeda suggestion box
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Anger over plot to put EU flag on all birth certificates

    BRUSSELS bureaucrats faced fresh fury last night after revealing proposals for European Union birth certificates.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/420986/Anger-over-plot-to-put-EU-flag-on-all-birth-certificates
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ishmael_X said:

    . The trick will be to sell them the horror story lab govt > fiscal incontinence > interest rate rise > crash! A disgusting strategy, but that's not to say it won't work.

    It won't work because the last time that chain of events happened was under a Conservative government; ditto the time before that. Voters' memories are not that short, and Labour's campaign managers will be anxious to jog them.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited August 2013
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
    Much drivel being posted about an opinion poll where all the movements are within Margin of Error not only of the previous Opinium Poll but also of their last umpteen polls . For example their poll from mid April had Lab 35 Con 29 UKIP 17 LD 8 so no significant change at all in 4 months .
    Then look at the change over TWELVE months.
    Agreed , that is much more meaningful .exactly a year ago , Opinium had Lab 40 Con 31 LD 10 UKIP 10

    Quite. Labour's vote has fallen by four points in a year: outside the MOE. And this pattern is repeated across the pollsters: Labour have fallen back by 4-5 points in the last 12 months. It doesn't take Stephen Hawking on speed to extrapolate the trend to 2015, but I appreciate it might be outwith your limited comprehension.

    A 2015 GE result of Tories 37, Labour 31, Libs 15, UKIP 7 (quite possible in my opinion) leaves Cameron tantalisingly short of a majority, but with a heathy plurality.

    And in 12 months with Opinium , the Conservative vote share has fallen from 31 to 29% Applying the SeanT on crack extrapolation that trend to 2015 makes your purported 2015 GE result look pure wishful thinking .
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013

    antifrank said:

    I've heard that the EU is drawing up plans to require every incorporated town to fly a 30 foot version of the EU flag and to make it compulsory for all EU citizens resident in the borough to kneel before it five times a day, summoning them by playing Ode To Joy over tannoys at the appointed time on pain of ten year prison sentences for those defaulting without a doctor's certificate or a permission from an EU-appointed officer.

    Excellent idea, Ode to Joy is one the finest pieces of music ever written.

    Though having watched The Lone Ranger today, The William Tell Overture maybe a contender now
    Time to celebrate.

    A Radetsky March from festive Vienna under the baton of Carlos Kleiber, one of the most under-recorded conducting geniuses of the 20th century (not that this piece needs a lot of interpretative genius, just a light hand).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYB4c163dJA
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited August 2013
    SeanT said:

    But it won't be birth certificates that causes Ye Great Rebellyon.

    Agreed, but rather like spousal murder all of the resentments add up slowly - and then it's a tiny thing which finally tips an individual over the edge into UKIPery. Don't underestimate the drip of small things whilst waiting for the big bang event.

    "Really? She killed him just for wiping it on the curtains?"

  • antifrank said:

    I've heard that the EU is drawing up plans to require every incorporated town to fly a 30 foot version of the EU flag and to make it compulsory for all EU citizens resident in the borough to kneel before it five times a day, summoning them by playing Ode To Joy over tannoys at the appointed time on pain of ten year prison sentences for those defaulting without a doctor's certificate or a permission from an EU-appointed officer.

    Excellent idea, Ode to Joy is one the finest pieces of music ever written.

    Though having watched The Lone Ranger today, The William Tell Overture maybe a contender now
    Was TLR any good? Read that it didn't too well in the US.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    That wouldnt bother me much either.

    I quite like Europe, except the frogs of course.
    RobD said:

    Personally it bothers me less than Harry Styles haircut.

    Where would you draw the line? How about all government stationary only displaying the EU flag?
  • antifrank said:

    I've heard that the EU is drawing up plans to require every incorporated town to fly a 30 foot version of the EU flag and to make it compulsory for all EU citizens resident in the borough to kneel before it five times a day, summoning them by playing Ode To Joy over tannoys at the appointed time on pain of ten year prison sentences for those defaulting without a doctor's certificate or a permission from an EU-appointed officer.

    Excellent idea, Ode to Joy is one the finest pieces of music ever written.

    Though having watched The Lone Ranger today, The William Tell Overture maybe a contender now
    Was TLR any good? Read that it didn't too well in the US.
    I enjoyed it.

    It isn't the best film ever made, I'd call it enjoyable.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I do know a couple where the final straw was the haircut he gave the toddler. Divorce papers arrived weeks later.
    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    But it won't be birth certificates that causes Ye Great Rebellyon.

    Agreed, but rather like spousal murder all of the resentments add up slowly - and then it's a tiny thing which finally tips an individual over the edge into UKIPery. Don't underestimate the drip of small things whilst waiting for the big bang event.

    "Really? She killed him just for wiping it on the curtains?"

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    SeanT said:

    Mark Senior: "And in 12 months with Opinium , the Conservative vote share has fallen from 31 to 29% Applying the SeanT on crack extrapolation that trend to 2015 makes your purported 2015 GE result look pure wishful thinking ."

    But of course a fall of 2 points is WITHIN the MoE (a concept you originally introduced to this debate), so it doesn't matter, does it?

    Oh dear. Not your best day. Not that you really have any good days, any more, do you?

    Oh deary , dear , you really do need a lesson on MofE which varies not only with sample size but also with the polling % being measured and is not a fixed % . Although the 4% Labour fall is outside the MofE it is within MofE of the fall being only 1% .

  • NextNext Posts: 826
    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    But it won't be birth certificates that causes Ye Great Rebellyon.

    Agreed, but rather like spousal murder all of the resentments add up slowly - and then it's a tiny thing which finally tips an individual over the edge into UKIPery. Don't underestimate the drip of small things whilst waiting for the big bang event.

    "Really? She killed him just for wiping it on the curtains?"

    Wasn't there a man who murdered his wife for putting his mustard in the wrong place?

    Anyway, yes, I concur, which is why I cited the UK's tea tax on the Yanks which caused the American Revolution. The Americans weren't really that fussed about tea, but it was the final insult, as they saw it, in a catalogue of imperial abuse, which made them go postal.

    Taxes are incendiary, however small. I can see some silly little EU direct tax being the spark that lights the eurosceptic fire, finally.
    I can imagine the French putting a tax on the sale of Union Jacks...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    @SeanT

    Oh deary , dear , you really do need a lesson on MofE

    Sean, I have been in touch with your agent and booked five fortnightly two hour one-on-one lessons with Mark Senior.

    You will have to travel to Worthing to attend the lessons.

    If you have never experienced the pleasure of Worthing before, take note of this extract from a Guardian article:

    Chris Hare, a respected historian and former university lecturer, has just [2009] published "Worthing, a History: Riots and Respectability in a Seaside Town".

    According to Hare, it was a combination of typhoid, riots and then Oscar Wilde who finally ruined the town's reputation to the point of no return. "There had been riots against Salvation Army attempts to close pubs and then there was the typhoid, so Worthing had been desperate for good publicity. When Wilde arrived, he was a godsend," said Hare. But now, even the future of Wilde's blue plaque, hung on the red bricks of a block of uninspiring modern flats, next to a petrol station, is being questioned.

    Steven Stevens, a prominent local figure who last year fought a campaign against a lap dancing club in Worthing, is unhappy that the link with Wilde brings in "the wrong sort of people". "This town is going downhill tremendously fast and people feel so strongly that we have to stand up and fight against that," he said. "This was a beautiful area and we shall have no truck with remembering the likes of Oscar Wilde and all the worst things in life. I myself would fight tooth and nail for any campaign to erase a link between Worthing and a child abuser."


    My advice it to wear a jacket and tie when in Mr. Senior's company.
  • Next said:

    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    But it won't be birth certificates that causes Ye Great Rebellyon.

    Agreed, but rather like spousal murder all of the resentments add up slowly - and then it's a tiny thing which finally tips an individual over the edge into UKIPery. Don't underestimate the drip of small things whilst waiting for the big bang event.

    "Really? She killed him just for wiping it on the curtains?"

    Wasn't there a man who murdered his wife for putting his mustard in the wrong place?

    Anyway, yes, I concur, which is why I cited the UK's tea tax on the Yanks which caused the American Revolution. The Americans weren't really that fussed about tea, but it was the final insult, as they saw it, in a catalogue of imperial abuse, which made them go postal.

    Taxes are incendiary, however small. I can see some silly little EU direct tax being the spark that lights the eurosceptic fire, finally.
    I can imagine the French putting a tax on the sale of Union Jacks...
    Britain's six territorial claims against France:

    Angevin Empire period
    Hundred Years War period
    Post-Napoleonic Wars occupation
    Operations during WW1
    Operations WW2 1939-40
    Operations WW2 1944-5
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    Next said:

    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    But it won't be birth certificates that causes Ye Great Rebellyon.

    Agreed, but rather like spousal murder all of the resentments add up slowly - and then it's a tiny thing which finally tips an individual over the edge into UKIPery. Don't underestimate the drip of small things whilst waiting for the big bang event.

    "Really? She killed him just for wiping it on the curtains?"

    Wasn't there a man who murdered his wife for putting his mustard in the wrong place?

    Anyway, yes, I concur, which is why I cited the UK's tea tax on the Yanks which caused the American Revolution. The Americans weren't really that fussed about tea, but it was the final insult, as they saw it, in a catalogue of imperial abuse, which made them go postal.

    Taxes are incendiary, however small. I can see some silly little EU direct tax being the spark that lights the eurosceptic fire, finally.
    I can imagine the French putting a tax on the sale of Union Jacks...
    Or even bankers' bonuses and financial transactions.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
    Much drivel being posted about an opinion poll where all the movements are within Margin of Error not only of the previous Opinium Poll but also of their last umpteen polls . For example their poll from mid April had Lab 35 Con 29 UKIP 17 LD 8 so no significant change at all in 4 months .
    I haven't seen that much drivel at all.

    Agreed it is within MoE (although on the edge) but it does appear to be a general narrowing of the lead - albeit until know with Labour being constant and the Cons gaining from UKIP - across all polls. Whether Labour's slip is a trend or an outlier is unknown at this stage.

    Citing a single poll from April is meaningless as I have no idea whether it is representative.

    That said, I think it is fair to say that the lead is narrowing at this point.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    tory conference combined with continuing good economic news and falling unemployment as a backdrop, housing market recovering, spending on the high street rising, crossover by October, 2014 consistent tory leads, 2015 five more years :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    But it won't be birth certificates that causes Ye Great Rebellyon.

    Agreed, but rather like spousal murder all of the resentments add up slowly - and then it's a tiny thing which finally tips an individual over the edge into UKIPery. Don't underestimate the drip of small things whilst waiting for the big bang event.

    "Really? She killed him just for wiping it on the curtains?"

    Wasn't there a man who murdered his wife for putting his mustard in the wrong place?

    Anyway, yes, I concur, which is why I cited the UK's tea tax on the Yanks which caused the American Revolution. The Americans weren't really that fussed about tea, but it was the final insult, as they saw it, in a catalogue of imperial abuse, which made them go postal.

    Taxes are incendiary, however small. I can see some silly little EU direct tax being the spark that lights the eurosceptic fire, finally.
    Not murder, but a woman was killed in a car crash after grabbing the wheel during an argument about paint.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1512373/Wife-died-in-crash-after-grabbing-the-wheel-during-row.html

    We used to drive along that road daily on our trip into work, and we used to have faux-arguments as we passed the spot. It's at that moment I realised we both share a rather sick style of humour.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
    Much drivel being posted about an opinion poll where all the movements are within Margin of Error not only of the previous Opinium Poll but also of their last umpteen polls . For example their poll from mid April had Lab 35 Con 29 UKIP 17 LD 8 so no significant change at all in 4 months .
    I haven't seen that much drivel at all.

    Agreed it is within MoE (although on the edge) but it does appear to be a general narrowing of the lead - albeit until know with Labour being constant and the Cons gaining from UKIP - across all polls. Whether Labour's slip is a trend or an outlier is unknown at this stage.

    Citing a single poll from April is meaningless as I have no idea whether it is representative.

    That said, I think it is fair to say that the lead is narrowing at this point.
    ALL Opinium polls since at least April have had results within MofE of each other .

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    Off-topic (although probably more on-topic than my last post):

    The EU is talking about bringing in an MOT for caravans. Does anyone know what problem this is trying to solve?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23648051
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    SeanT said:

    But it won't be birth certificates that causes Ye Great Rebellyon.

    Agreed, but rather like spousal murder all of the resentments add up slowly - and then it's a tiny thing which finally tips an individual over the edge into UKIPery. Don't underestimate the drip of small things whilst waiting for the big bang event.

    "Really? She killed him just for wiping it on the curtains?"

    Wasn't there a man who murdered his wife for putting his mustard in the wrong place?

    Anyway, yes, I concur, which is why I cited the UK's tea tax on the Yanks which caused the American Revolution. The Americans weren't really that fussed about tea, but it was the final insult, as they saw it, in a catalogue of imperial abuse, which made them go postal.

    Taxes are incendiary, however small. I can see some silly little EU direct tax being the spark that lights the eurosceptic fire, finally.
    From memory, I believe that tea was much more significant than you suggest. A lot of the resentment was about the requirement for goods to be carried on English ships and significant import duties.

    As always, with our American friends, it comes down to money at the end of the day
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
    Much drivel being posted about an opinion poll where all the movements are within Margin of Error not only of the previous Opinium Poll but also of their last umpteen polls . For example their poll from mid April had Lab 35 Con 29 UKIP 17 LD 8 so no significant change at all in 4 months .
    I haven't seen that much drivel at all.

    Agreed it is within MoE (although on the edge) but it does appear to be a general narrowing of the lead - albeit until know with Labour being constant and the Cons gaining from UKIP - across all polls. Whether Labour's slip is a trend or an outlier is unknown at this stage.

    Citing a single poll from April is meaningless as I have no idea whether it is representative.

    That said, I think it is fair to say that the lead is narrowing at this point.
    ALL Opinium polls since at least April have had results within MofE of each other .

    And the other pollsters?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Good evening, everyone.

    Has Miliband responded to the knife Burnham stuck in his back?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    The Tories have recovered most of their losses, but the position remains consistent with the familiar 38/33 pattern except for institutes that show UKIP much higher for methodological reasons. The theory that one doesn't need to say anything in August and it doesn't matter has been severely tested, but seems more or less intact.

    If people feel in 2015 that the economy's doing really well and they're sharing in the recovery, then the Conservatives will benefit further. But anything as unambiguous as that is really unlikely, as even Avery would probably concede.

    You've been remarkably sanguine in your commentary as Labour's lead has been squeezed, initially with the Cons recovering vs. UKIP and now it looks like Labour slipping.

    I suspect you may have a secret agenda...
    Much drivel being posted about an opinion poll where all the movements are within Margin of Error not only of the previous Opinium Poll but also of their last umpteen polls . For example their poll from mid April had Lab 35 Con 29 UKIP 17 LD 8 so no significant change at all in 4 months .
    I haven't seen that much drivel at all.

    Agreed it is within MoE (although on the edge) but it does appear to be a general narrowing of the lead - albeit until know with Labour being constant and the Cons gaining from UKIP - across all polls. Whether Labour's slip is a trend or an outlier is unknown at this stage.

    Citing a single poll from April is meaningless as I have no idea whether it is representative.

    That said, I think it is fair to say that the lead is narrowing at this point.
    ALL Opinium polls since at least April have had results within MofE of each other .

    And the other pollsters?
    Yougov and ICM yes , Mori and Comres No

  • Good evening, everyone.

    Has Miliband responded to the knife Burnham stuck in his back?

    Andy Burnham as Tillius Cimber?
  • Britain's foreign aid has fallen into hands of al-Qaeda, DfiD admits

    Almost half a million pounds of British taxpayer-funded aid and equipment has fallen into the hands of al-Qaeda, the Department for International Development has admitted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/somalia/10235384/Britains-foreign-aid-has-fallen-into-hands-of-al-Qaeda-DfiD-admits.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @josiasJessop if there's one policy to gain the EU ecstatic support from the UKIP demographic, then giving caravan owners a hard time is it. My father would probably support capital punishment for caravan owners on the road in daylight hours.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    edited August 2013

    Good evening, everyone.

    Has Miliband responded to the knife Burnham stuck in his back?

    He has booked himself in as a NHS patient at Stafford Hospital for treatment...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    He may be second rate; but the opposition are third rate. On a good day.

    Its like watching Tranmere rovers thrash Hinckley united in the FA cup final. Not pretty.
    tim said:

    And anyone who believes UKiP will poll 17% in a GE is insane.
    If they poll 10% then David Cameron is the most disastrous politician for the side he supposedly represents since Tony Benn.
    He'll have blown the unloseable election, split the right and driven Tory membership down below 100,000.
    He's second rate but no one is that second rate

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. Eagles, Miliband isn't dead yet.

    But if he isn't careful the Labour shadow cabinet will start to resemble a meeting of Milo and Clodius.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Re: Opinium Poll:

    DC gets 85% approval of Cons.
    EdM gets 50% approval of Labour and
    NC gets 50% approval from LDs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. Financier, that's not a healthy state of affairs. Two of the three major parties have leaders who barely have the support of their own side.
  • Well done to the probation service in helping this prisoner rehabilitate himself after a stint in prison.

    Chris Huhne has opened a new row over the “revolving door” between Whitehall and business after it emerged he landed a senior job with an energy company within three months of leaving prison.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10235327/Row-as-disgrace-Chris-Huhne-lands-top-energy-job.html
This discussion has been closed.