Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The value bet on the CON poll progress is the 6-1 that they
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The value bet on the CON poll progress is the 6-1 that they they’ll top the poll in next year’s Euros
It has almost been taken as read amongst the commentariat that UKIP will come top on votes in next year’s EU parliament elections. The result is that in the betting Farage’s party remains odds on favourite to do it.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Tory to giant panda ratio in Scotland looks set to take a big hit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-23625465
@MSmithsonPB
Today's YouGov sees the LAB lead down from yesterday's 8% to 4%
CON 34
LAB 38
LD 9
UKIP 12
Lol. That's funny.
And as for the Giant Pandas...
I mean, why?
Although I admit that could also be true of many computer programmers. And perhaps Scottish Tories... ;-)
"In theory, that means stores of experience for Mr Miliband to deploy, but it hasn’t worked that way. In 2010 he was Energy Secretary, an unremarkable peer to those he now leads — seen by many as a junior. Few imagined him winning a future succession battle. Some stood against him, the rest backed someone else. The adjustment from disregard to deference has been awkward. There has been a background hum of dissent at Mr Miliband’s every move, hard to pinpoint but audible enough.
Opinion polls showing Mr Miliband heading for Downing Street, albeit more in a shuffle than a march, has only won semi-detached loyalty. The Medium-Sized Beasts know that if they were to rock the boat too hard it might capsize, sinking their chances of another Cabinet job. A second term in opposition would see them overtaken by Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves, Stella Creasy, Liz Kendall — the rising stars elected in 2010 and not weighed down with the baggage of the Blair-Brown years.
It all makes for a strained relationship between the leader’s office and the front bench. Trust is missing. Shadow ministers grumble about a lack of clarity in the party’s message. Mr Miliband’s aides mutter that the leader toils single-handed at the coalface of Labour renewal and that his Shadow team should stop carping and muck in. Gladly, comes the riposte, but not when new ideas — public sector reforms, for example, or budget savings — are treated as challenges to the leader’s authority. Frontbenchers are not allowed to make speeches containing the words “Labour should” or “we must”, since that might be interpreted as bossing Mr Miliband around. Calls for action must be preceded by the phrase “as Ed Miliband has said . . .” which makes it hard to advocate things he hasn’t said... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3838091.ece
Anyway, I think Mike is right. UKIP are expected to do well in the euros because Europe is supposed to be their thing and no one else is supposed to care all that much resulting in differential voting. However true that is about their core it is completely false about the NOTA support that they have picked up recently. If the government becomes more popular their vote will shrink.
For that reason I think Mike is right to focus on the tory share. A tory share of 34% means a relatively poor UKIP performance. Plently of time to go though.
LOL 4pts! I do hope we get an outlier of Null Points just to see the fuss it causes.
"Hide the pies! Salad-dodging UK chair tester Tom Watson is headed our way:
British anti-Murdoch campaigner Tom Watson says he is coming to Australia to take on the nation’s tabloid editors over their coverage of Kevin Rudd.
The Labour MP, who shot to prominence during the Leveson phone hacking inquiry, announced the move on Twitter last night.
“That @dailytelegraph front page did it,” he said, referring to yesterday’s Daily Telegraph splash featuring Mr Rudd as Colonel Klink, from Hogan’s Heroes …
Mr Watson will join a team of overseas campaigners, including three former Obama operatives, working to re-elect the Prime Minister.
Kevin 457 is stacking the joint with foreign types. This particular example should provide huge assistance to the local restaurant industry:
Minister Tom Watson spent so much on a shopping spree at Marks & Spencer funded by the taxpayer that the store gave him a free pizza wheel.
A leaked receipt submitted to the parliamentary fees office shows that he was given the free gift during his £150 shopping trip.
Other leaked documents reveal that Mr Watson, a close ally of Gordon Brown, spent the maximum of £4,800 in a single year on food.
He’ll fit right in with Rudd’s happy team:
After The Times did a Reservoir Dogs-style mock-up of Watson and other Labourites who were said to be part of Gordon Brown’s sinister cabal of enforcers and smearers, ‘Watson walked along the beach, in tears’ …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mara_Carfagna
Labour, joined up politics
The other really great bet NOW, were it available, would be to LAY UKIP at any price below evens with Betfair but of course, true to form, they are not covering this market. and neither are Ladbroke-owned Betdaq who have proved to be something of a disappointment since being acquired by the Magic Sign with none of the challenge to Betfair some of us had hoped for and expected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/creditcards/10231556/Man-who-created-own-credit-card-sues-bank-for-not-sticking-to-terms.html
What a wonderful idea, I hope he wins his case!
Third would look very bad for the two Eds just a year before a general election.
Should we talk about pre distribution or hardwiring fairness in ?
Meanwhile, from today's YouGov - Con lead over Labour (change)
The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind of society I want: +1 (+3)
Led by people of real ability: +8 (+3)
Its leaders are prepared to take tough and unpopular decisions: +40 (+7)
It seems to chop and change all the time: you can never be quite sure what it stands for: -3 (+2)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/1v0a2zc7v1/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-080813.pdf
" A team of officers from the Metropolitan Police has been asked to gather information to determine whether pay-offs to senior managers amounted to fraud. A quarter of senior managers received more than they were entitled to in the past three years.
The National Audit Office concluded, in a report published on Monday, that the BBC paid out £60 million in severance payments to its senior managers in eight years between April 2005 and the end of March this year.
Of that figure, £25 million went on severance payments for 150 high-ranking staff in the three years to December. A quarter of senior managers received more than they were entitled to, leaving the taxpayer with an unnecessary bill of £1 million.
Mark Thompson, the former director-general, is due to give evidence in front of MPs over the scandal next month. Other executives who were caught up in the scandal include Roly Keating, who now runs the British Library. Last month, it emerged that he sent back his £376,000 payoff cheque to the broadcaster after he found out it had not been authorised properly... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10232189/Met-Police-investigate-BBC-pay-offs-scandal.html
Political Ping Pong.
"A second term in opposition would see them overtaken by Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves, Stella Creasy, Liz Kendall — the rising stars elected in 2010 and not weighed down with the baggage of the Blair-Brown years."
Having met all three ladies, Chuka would not have any sort of hope of coming out on top.
They would have him trussed up and doing their bidding before he knew what was happening - really not much different from his present state - a peacock is so fascinated by his own self-image (that occupies all his attention), that he is bemused when the peahens ignore him.
At least one of those ladies has more brainpower in her big toe than Chukka thinks he has - and the other two are not far behind (which is where they would kick him).
For as Kipling wrote: "For the female of the species is more deadly than the male."
Labour needs to look at how the mess started, and how they got so far down the road before realising that what had become a campaign was, in fact, dangerous ground for them to tread.
Sadly, an important issue that all sides could probably agree on (the abuse by some companies of staff using such contracts) has become a political football, which Labour have promptly kicked hard into their own face.
I only hope the coalition can sort it out ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGF6bOi1NfA
Liz is MP for Leicester West. A quite sparky personality, intelligent, open to new ideas and has a mind that wants to be challenged. Spent quite a lively lunch with her (at a function) engaged in excellent, very friendly and open debate - not your traditional Labourite. One who could provide new thinking for a party that is devoid of ideas.
Among VI:
It is led by people of real ability
Con: 64
Lab: 37
Its leaders are prepared to take tough and unpopular decisions
Con: 84
Lab: 26
Council of Mortgage Lenders - repossessions for the first 6 months of 2013 15,700, the lowest number since the second half of 2007.
One thing that the poll does show is how split the Rest of the South is from the rest of the country.The poll gives the Conservatives a very healthy lead in the Rest of the South but Labour way ahead in the remainder of the country:
South - Conservatives +23
Midlands/Wales - Labour +14
London - Labour +11
North - Labour +22
Scotland - Labour +20
This marginalisation of the Southis also shown in the questions asked on different subjects. It also shows how much weight is given to the South whn 4/5th of the polling is showing a Labour lead of 11-22% but overall the poll comes out at 4%.
https://twitter.com/TheJockPandas
Re Zero Hours - it didn't take long to find stories about The Co-Op, Labour Councils using these contracts. A senior figure from The Co-Op also gave an interview on them in April to ITV - ought to have been a warning to Labour politicians that all might not be above reproach.
Here's another notable Scottish Black and White .... for Sunil too
http://www.vinmag.com/online/media/gbu0/prodlg/AP2087-black-and-white-dogs-christmas-whisky-advert.jpg
What are the chances any of the 10 were discussed here.......
If you have to ask you'll probably never know.
"This marginalisation of the South".
I quite agree. Remember the famous Times headline ....
"Fog in the English Channel. Europe cut off."
In Scotland the polls have shown the Cons at ~25%!! or in the South, Labour equal with the Cons.
You have to look at trends over a period for any poll to get meaningful information.
Scroll down and look at the one by A Chappell in July 2012
http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK
Edm and the Shadow Cabinet..all over France
Zero Hours Contracts policy, Labour , blown apart.
Watson off to OZ .to advise on how to win elections
Crosby and Messina in the UK..to advise on how to win elections
Labour drops to 4%
You forgot Arnie Graf,he must be on holiday as well.
Labour are better off keeping him hidden in France, presumably he's there dreaming up socialist utopia's with Hollande or something..
"French industrial output shrank by 1.4 percent in June from May, data from the INSEE statistics agency showed on Friday, adding to signs that any recovery in the euro zone's second largest economy would remain fragile.
A Reuters poll of 23 economists had forecast an increase of 0.1 percent on average. Expectations ranged from -0.5 percent to 0.5 percent.
The contraction was driven by a decrease in the production of food and agricultural goods as well as in energy and mining."
That'll be fun..
#Construction output rose 1.4% between Q1 and Q2, slightly more than 0.9% in preliminary estimate of Q2 #GDP bit.ly/192Szfd
Deficit on #trade in goods & services £1.5 bn in June, down from £2.6 bn in May bit.ly/1cx9FG2
Just caught Mrs P sending flirty texts to that test tube … Not happy, or horny.
They need to hardwire fairness in frankly !
"This was probably and hopefully the only time in my life I was going to wish there was a gay snowman in the kitchen."
An excellent review!
If she is the great white female hope and Chuka is the great black male hope then the Labour party is in deep poo.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-anti-independence-rumours-cross-the-line-1-3037236
As Mrs May observed of passports, the nationalists should be wary of promising things not within their gift......
Though it would give a further boost to UKIP as the number of immigrants in rUK would soar overnight. Whether they would be EU or non-EU migrants, of course, is not yet clear.
"The next time someone tells you that you’ll have to show your passport when travelling from an independent Scotland to England you can point out that if that was so, it would be the only crossing in Europe where you’d have to do it"
so I wonder how she got in to Denmark then ?
David Walsh (Lab) 745
Stuart Todd (UKIP) 485
Anne Ferguson (C) 176
James Carrolle (Ind) 170
Rod Waite (L Dem) 40
South: 32.3%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_the_countries_of_the_United_Kingdom (Source)
Essex could certainly be classified as 'South', but where do you fit Norfolk into the above 5 categories.
"A fifth of Brits who attended secondary school in the UK, felt that they were “loners” at school (19%)
One in five believe that Religious Education was least beneficial to their education (21%)
Whilst many maintain the old adage that their school days were the best of their lives, and with a long and hopefully hot summer holiday underway it’s not hard to see why. A new study from Opinium Research, however, reveals that this wasn’t necessarily the case.
According to the study, nearly one in five adults, who attended a UK secondary school, (19%) say they were a ‘loner’ at secondary school whilst only one in seven classed themselves as having been popular (15%). The research also showed that a larger proportion of men than women considered themselves to be the sporty type (19% Vs. 9%) while a higher percentage of women confessed to being the teacher’s pet compared to men (10% Vs. 4%). Other popular playground stereotypes were:
Loner (19%)
Cool/popular kid (15%)
Sporty (14%)
Geek (9%)
Class Clown (9%)
When it comes to misdemeanor in the school yard, those who attended a UK secondary school, appear to be relatively tame – most (36%) say that not doing their homework was one of the three most disobedient things they did during their secondary school years, while three in ten (30%) said it was skipping lessons. For just over one in five (23%) it was being late for school. Twenty-one per cent of women admit they didn’t dress to school code versus thirteen per cent of men! One in ten (11%) admit to throwing punches at their classmates. A higher percentage of men were ready to confess to this than women (20% Vs. 3%). One in twenty (5%) drank alcohol whilst at school, and 3 per cent admit cheating in exams..."
http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/Online_VI_09-08-2013_BPC.pdf
Con: 32
Lab: 38
LibD: 12
UKIP: 9
'I keep seeing his name - who is he? I assume that I don't know because he's not much of a threat to anyone.'
Ed's new campaigning guru all the way from Chicago.
'I’ve attended Arnie Graf training sessions and they appear mainly to be about telling you the bleedin’ obvious. It’s the sort of thing that GOOD Labour councillors (and indeed other parties) and Labour Party activists already do and indeed have always done. It just puts a fancy new label on it and gives the Westminster village and professional political types something to talk about.
It’s not exactly rocket science to suggest that when you’re doing voter ID you don’t stick rigidly to a script, but incorporate the questions into a conversation. As you’re walking watch out for the dog poo on the street, the broken street light or bus shelter and mention it to the people you talk to. And if they are particularly supportive then maybe ask them to deliver some leaflets on their streets or perish the thought come to a social event (please not a meeting).'
http://hopisen.com/2013/why-id-sack-arnie-graf/
"with less than two years to go before the election, Arnie Graf and his movement politics is now a lovely, beautiful, inspiring barnacle.
It’s time to scrape him off the boat."
Was it Quentin Letts who compared her voice to that of Harry H Corbett?
Stella Creasy as a goody two shoes pony riding clever clogs who thinks its a jolly good wheeze living in an inner city with its community driven ethnic mix... Probably thinks David Brents "Equality Street" is for real
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmTV62mE1PA
Also, comments that end with a sarcastic "oh, wait"
Did people really think that would be funny or resonate after it had been done once?
Not to mention "corrected that for you" smart arsery...
My Google Fu has failed - I can't find it - hopefully another PBer can. Maybe I was wrong about it being from www.BritishPathe.com
Rest of South=South East, South West, East of England = 19.7 million or 31% of the population
Midlands/Wales = W Mids, E Mids, Wales = 13.1 million or 21% of the population
North = North west, North east, Yorks & H = 14.9 million or 24% of the population
London = London = 8.23 million or 13% of the population
Scotland=Scotland =5.3 million or 8% of the population
NI=NI = 1.8 million or 3% of the population
Yeh but its only the industries where barefoot nine year olds are employed on zero hours contracts......should pay living wage.....redundancies in the public sector.....falling living standards.....more regulation needed......introduce ban......all the bankers' fault.....only people benefiting are tories' rich mates....fatcher to blame.....irresponsible housing boom....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgWHbpMVQ1U
F1: I'm amazed that Ferrari still haven't sorted their wind tunnel woe. This has been going on for years:
http://www.espn.co.uk/ferrari/motorsport/story/120091.html
His review of a book about how to diagnose faecal incontinence observed that "it's not a difficult clinical call to make".